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Grain Market Insider: July 20, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 1:45 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Despite ongoing military action in Ukraine’s port city of Odesa, outlooks for less threatening August weather led the corn market to consolidation and profit taking.

  • Like corn, a friendlier August forecast helped to pressure the soybean market lower today along with soybean meal, while soybean oil posted gains, helped by higher world veg oil prices and the rising tensions in the Black Sea.

  • Weak demand and escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine combined to create a mixed close in the wheat complex, with Minneapolis and nearby KC contracts closing higher, while Chicago contracts settled mixed.

  • Trading over 100 for the first time since July 12, and with its largest gain since May, the US Dollar index futures traded higher today, possibly adding some negativity to today’s grain markets.

  • To see the current Drought Monitor, and August US Temperature and Precipitation outlooks courtesy of NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for Old Crop. The market had a nearly 140-cent swing from the May low to the June high and back on weather. Use any remaining bounces in the market to price what Old Crop bushels you may have, if any. We won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2022 Corn (Cash, Calls, or Puts) as we have moved focus onto 2023 and 2024 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No action is recommended for New Crop 2023 corn. The future price potential for Dec 23 corn continues to be at the mercy of each new weather forecast. Dryness and dry weather forecasts pushed Dec corn from the May low to the June high with a gain of 137 cents, which was promptly erased and then some by mid-July, leaving the market 149 cents off that June high, with a surprise jump in acres and more favorable forecasts. Now, the threat of dry weather again has rallied Dec corn more than 80 cents off that July 13 low.  During the runup in early June, we warned that any change in the forecast to wetter weather could erase all the gains as corn didn’t have much of a bullish fundamental story without a supply-side shock fueled by lower yields. Overall, our thought process has not changed from a month ago and with the tremendous uncertainty, and subsequent volatility still in front of us, we continue to recommend holding the Strangle options position, comprised of the previously bought Dec 610 calls and Dec 580 puts. A turn back to wetter weather and we wouldn’t be surprised to see sub-500 corn again, and if dry weather persists, we wouldn’t be surprised to see corn prices north of 700. Under either of these scenarios, the Strangle will benefit and doesn’t require trying to outguess the weather.  

  • No action is currently recommended for 2024 corn. In 2012, the best pricing opportunities for Dec 2013 corn were during the 2012 summer runup. Despite the significant yield losses to the 2012 crop, and the fear of running out of corn, the Dec 2013 contract peaked in the summer of 2012, and by January 2, 2013, the price was already down about 12% from the high. We continue to watch the calendar for 2024 corn as this 2023 summer volatility could provide some additional opportunities to get some good early sales on the books in the event of a 2013-type repeat. Insider recently recommended making a sale on your 2024 crop, and we’ll be watching for another opportunity to suggest adding to prior early sales levels between now and the beginning of September. 

  • Corn futures consolidated on the session as disappointing price action in the wheat market limited the potential in the corn market on the day. Prices traded towards the top of yesterday’s range, holding on to some of the gains.

  • Weather forecasts are still a main focus. Buying support was limited as early long-range projections for the month of August turned temperatures to a normal to below-normal range and precipitation to normal to above-normal to start August and longer-term into the fall.

  • Ongoing military action by Russia against the city of Odesa and its port helped support overnight price action, but as prices failed to push through yesterday’s highs, the market saw some profit taking.

  • Weekly export sales saw old crop sales of 9.3 MB and new crop sales of 19.4 MB. New crop sales were above expectations for the week, but overall export performance is still behind pace to reach the adjusted USDA export targets.

  • August grain options expire on Friday, and with the recent price strength, the market may be poised for some volatility as those options are set to be exited, expired, or be transitioned into futures positions.

Above: In mid-July the corn market was oversold and posted a double bottom at 474. Since then, it has rallied significantly toward the 50-day moving average. While the market has upward momentum, it may run into resistance near the 50-day MA. If the market closes above the 50-day MA, it could signal a change in trend to higher, though heavy resistance remains up towards 595 – 625 and it would need further bullish news to break through. Below the market, key support lies near the recent 474 low. 

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is being recommended for Old Crop. Any remaining old crop bushels should be getting priced into this rally. We won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2022 Soybeans (Cash, Calls, or Puts) as we have moved focus onto 2023 and 2024 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • No action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. The USDA injected a lot of volatility into this market beginning with a much lower-than-expected planted acreage estimate, followed by a much larger-than-expected 300mb carryout estimate in its July WASDE. While demand has been weak, we have a bona fide weather market during a crucial period for soybeans and there is little wiggle room for lost yield in this year’s crop. While a drier forecast can still maintain upside potential, plenty of time remains for rain to come and push prices lower, much like in 2012, when July was dry. Then the pattern changed in August, and decent rain fell in parts of the western Corn Belt and IL, sending Nov ’12 soybeans down 20%. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop. Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for the 2024 crop, though it may not be until after harvest or toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales. 

  • Soybeans ended the day higher in the August contract but lower in all deferred contracts with soybean meal lower and soybean oil higher. Pressure came from a new longer-term weather forecast that is showing lower temperatures and increased rain chances.

  • With Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal, less sunflower meal and oil will be exported out of that region which has given other veg oils a boost. Palm oil closed 3.9% higher today along with soybean oil.

  • Net sales of soybeans were sluggish again with 4.7 mb for 22/23, which was up 58% from the previous week but down 43% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales for 23/24 were 27.9 mb, and exports of 8.8 mb were down 29% from the previous week and 15% from the prior 4-week average.

  • Brazil’s soy exports to China were up 32% on the year as China capitalizes on the cheaper Brazilian soybeans. As a result, China, the world’s biggest importer of soy, has been largely absent from US purchases, having booked only 70 mb of US beans to date.

Above: The soybean charts rolled from the August to the September contract on 7/17 with the 75-cent discount to the September represented by the 52-cent gap on the chart between 7/14 and 7/17. To fill the gap, the market will need additional bullish news to continue higher and trade through the heavy resistance area of 1490 – 1505. If not, and prices retreat, initial support below the market is near 1400 with further support being in the 1350 – 1390 area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The USDA reported an increase of 6.3 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24, with exports running behind the pace needed to meet the USDA’s estimate; 14.3 mb are needed each week and last week shipments were only 8.7 mb.

  • In addition to the recent attacks on Ukrainian ports, Russia has said that they have also planted mines in sea lanes. With the closure of the corridor and increased Russian hostility, Ukraine may still try to move some grain via river and rail. The question is, how much can they export with these methods?

  • Poland, along with four other EU nations, has vowed to extend the restrictions on importing Ukrainian grain into those countries. The import ban was originally put in place to protect profitability for their farmers, as an influx of supply from Ukraine would lead to lower domestic prices. Poland’s current ban expires in September.

  • Based on satellite imagery, Refinitiv Commodities Research has increased their estimate of US 23/24 winter wheat production by 1% to 46.8 mmt. Spring wheat production, however, was lowered 2% to 14.5 mmt.

  • September Chicago wheat’s 200-day moving average is at 746-1/2. Today that contract traded just above that level before backing off, indicating that it may be acting as an area of resistance.  

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 New Crop. The wheat market has seen a great amount of volatility in recent weeks and has primarily been a follower of corn which has been driven by weather.  Although demand remains weak, the recent closure of the Black Sea corridor, and continued weather concerns in the northern Plains, Canada, Europe, and Russia, still leave many supply questions unanswered. While Grain Market Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any violation of major support following the recent sales recommendation, it may be after harvest or near the end of summer before we consider recommending any additional sales for the 2023 crop.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since the middle of June, price volatility has risen with updated USDA reports, changing weather forecasts, and current events in the Black Sea. While prices are off their recent highs, plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. War continues in the Black Sea region, major exporting countries’ stocks are at 11-year lows, and no one knows what the weather will bring, leaving the market vulnerable to many uncertainties. For now, after recommending making a sale for the 2024 crop, and while keeping an eye on the market to see if any major support is broken, Grain Market Insider would need to see prices north of 800 before considering recommending any additional sales. 

  •  No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: In June, when September wheat posted a bearish reversal it left significant resistance near 730 – 770. Rising tensions in the Black Sea have triggered a rally which is testing this area, and the market will need additional bullish input to rally beyond and test the 800 level. If prices do retreat, support below the market may be found around 650 – 610, and again near 570, the May low.  

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • We continue to look for better prices before making any 2023 sales.  While crop conditions have improved and there are reports of better-than-expected US yields, questions remain about the world wheat supply with the closure of the Black Sea corridor, dryness in Russia, the Canadian Prairies/Northern US Plains, and Europe. With world supplies currently seen at 11-year lows, we continue to target 950 – 1000 in the July futures as a potential level to suggest the next round of New Crop sales.

  • Patience is warranted for the 2024 crop. With continued issues in the Black Sea region and with major exporting countries’ stocks at 11-year lows, we are willing to be patient with further sales of New Crop HRW wheat. We are targeting just below the 900 level on the upside while keeping an eye on recent lows for any violation of support.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: KC wheat continues to be volatile and trade within the broad 736 – 919 range established back in May. Momentum favors higher prices, though heavy resistance remains between 890 – 920 and the market will need additional bullish input to push higher. Below the market, initial support remains near 778 – 763 with key support around the May low of 736.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action for 2022 Old Crop MINNEAPOLIS Wheat. The market had a nearly 116-cent swing from the May low to the June high and back on weather. While weather and geopolitical events can still affect Old Crop prices, the marketing year for Old Crop is quickly winding down, and any additional upside opportunities may be more difficult to come by before New Crop harvest. Use any remaining bounces in the market to price what Old Crop bushels you may have, if any. We won’t have any “New Alerts” for the 2022 crop (Cash, Calls, or Puts) as we have moved focus onto 2023 and 2024 Crop Year opportunities.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather dominates the market right now, and though much of the growing season remains, Grain Market Insider suggested making a sale as prices closed below 822 to protect from further downside erosion due to a potential trend change.  Seasonally, there isn’t a strong likelihood of higher prices until after harvest, although both weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to shock the market higher. Insider will consider making sales suggestions if prices improve through this growing season, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 spring wheat crop. So far this year we have seen some of the volatility from the 2023 crop, with its challenges from late planting and now dryness, be carried over to the 2024 crop. We are now at that time of year where there are typically more headwinds to prices than tailwinds, and to begin getting some early sales on the books. Now that the market has rallied to within 15 cents of the June high where there is significant overhead resistance, Insider recommends making a sale on a portion of your 2024 spring wheat production by using either SEPT ’24 Minneapolis Wheat futures contracts or a SEPT ’24 HTA contract, so basis can be set at a later, more advantageous time. While $8 prices are not the $9 or $10+ that we have seen in recent years, and weather and geopolitical disruptions can still shock the market higher, they still represent historically good prices to begin making sales.

Above: The September contract has rallied nearly 100 cents from the July low and is showing signs of being overbought while pushing into the 889 – 940 resistance area. If the market cannot push higher, initial support may be found near 865 – 845 and again around 800. 

Other Charts / Weather

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Midday Update: July 20, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
SEP ’23 539.25 -6.25
DEC ’23 548 -5
DEC ’24 537.25 -3.75
Soybeans
AUG ’23 1490 -1.5
NOV ’23 1407 -1.75
NOV ’24 1293.5 -1.5
Chicago Wheat
SEP ’23 731.75 4
DEC ’23 750.75 5.25
JUL ’24 765.25 2.75
K.C. Wheat
SEP ’23 871.75 5
DEC ’23 879 6.5
JUL ’24 838.75 -1.5
Mpls Wheat
SEP ’23 902 4.75
DEC ’23 911.5 5.5
SEP ’24 829.75 -8.75
S&P 500
SEP ’23 4580 -17
Crude Oil
SEP ’23 75.44 0.15
Gold
OCT ’23 1991.8 -8.1

  • Corn is lower around midday after trading higher in the overnight in response to a new attack last night by Russia on Ukraine’s port city of Odessa. This makes the third night in a row of attacks on Odesa with 60,000 tons of grain being destroyed yesterday.

  • Export sales for corn were poor last week with net sales of 9.3 mb for 22/23, which was down 49% from the previous week but up 6% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales for 23/24 were 19.4 mb, and exports of 15.1 mb were down 22% from the previous week.

  • Brazil’s second crop corn is now seen at a record 54 mmt which would be up 16% from last season and secures Brazil’s new spot as the top corn exporter.

  • The new monthly weather outlook has been released by NOAA and shows below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation for most of the Corn Belt.

  • Soybeans are trading lower along with soybean meal, while soybean oil is higher with support from crude oil. Overbought futures may be adding pressure along with new weather forecasts that show better conditions over the next month and into mid-August which is a crucial time for soybeans.

  • Net sales of soybeans were sluggish again with 4.7 mb for 22/23, which was up 58% from the previous week but down 43% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales for 23/24 were 27.9 mb, and exports of 8.8 mb were down 29% from the previous week and 15% from the prior 4-week average.

  • Thanks to Brazil’s record large crop, they have been the world’s leading seller and main supplier of China, whose soy imports from Brazil for June were up 31.6% from the previous month.

  • The withdrawal of Russia from the grain deal has had impacts on soybean prices due to Ukraine’s exports of sunflower oil and meal, and with those exports halted, other world veg oils have moved higher. October palm oil was up 3.9% today and soybean oil is following suit.

  • Wheat has traded all over the place so far today with prices higher overnight on the heels of another Russian attack on Odesa, but a few hours later prices plummeted, and now have stabilized around unchanged.

  • Russia has said that any vessels in the Black Sea region will now be assumed to be carrying military goods, so Ukraine will need to export their grains through other routes.

  • Since the beginning of the Black Sea Grain Initiative on July 27, 2022, over 31.1 mmt of grains and veg oils have shipped from three Ukrainian ports to 46 countries.

  • Technically, December wheat may have found resistance at the 200-day moving average at 7.60 because futures slightly exceeded that level before backing off lower.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: July 20, 2023

Bygmidev

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’23 544.25 -1.25
DEC ’23 552.25 -0.75
DEC ’24 539.5 -1.5

Soybeans

AUG ’23 1489.5 -2
NOV ’23 1407.5 -1.25
NOV ’24 1294.5 -0.5

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’23 727.5 -0.25
DEC ’23 745.75 0.25
JUL ’24 760 -2.5

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’23 873 6.25
DEC ’23 877 4.5
JUL ’24 841 0.75

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’23 907 9.75
DEC ’23 916.25 10.25
SEP ’24 845 6.5

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4589.25 -7.75

Crude Oil

SEP ’23 75.66 0.37

Gold

OCT ’23 2001.8 1.9

  • Corn is trading slightly lower this morning despite fresh attacks by Ukraine on Odessa last night, with each attack reportedly more damaging than the last.

  • A few very dry areas in Minnesota received rainfall in the past 48 hours which has eased some concerns for that area.

  •  Dec corn appears to be meeting some resistance around the 5.60 area as producers step in to make cash sales to reward this rally.

  • US ethanol stocks rose by 2.2% to 23.166 m bbl, and analysts were expecting 22.669 mln bbl. Plant production was at 1.07 m b/d compared to the average guess of 1.042 m.

  • Soybeans are trading slightly lower as soybean meal falls but soybean oil trades higher along with higher crude oil.

  • At some point today, the National Weather Service will release their forecast for August. This should have some effect on prices with August weather being critical for soybean yield.

  • The USDA attaché has put the Argentinian soy crop at 21.25 mmt which is 3.75 mmt below the most recent USDA estimate.

  • Chinese June soybean imports from Brazil were up 32% on the year as China stocks up on cheap soy products. China imported 9.53 mmt of oilseed compared to 7.24 mmt a year earlier.

  • Wheat has turned lower this morning but was higher overnight after reports of a third attack on the Ukrainian port city of Odessa came in and are said to be even worse than the attack the previous night.

  • With the grain deal off the table, Russia is wasting no time ramping up attacks on Ukraine and seems to be targeting port cities on the Black Sea to limit their exports.

  • The previous night’s attack on Odessa destroyed 60,000 tons of grain that were being stored there, and more was likely destroyed last night.

  • Technically, December wheat may have found resistance at the 200-day moving average ay 7.60 because futures slightly exceeded that level before backing off lower.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Grain Market Insider: July 19, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 1:45 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • A continued hot and dry forecast, and the addition of more war premium due to rising tensions in the Black Sea, led December corn to close above its 100-day moving average.

  • Soybeans closed higher for the fifth day in a row as concerns increase over hot and dry conditions for the remainder of July and the closure of the Black Sea corridor.

  • Soybean oil likely gained strength in reaction to damage at an Odesa veg oil terminal in Ukraine, while December soybean meal posted a bearish reversal on the daily chart, closing lower on the day after making new highs for the move.

  • Increased tensions in the Black Sea region led to more short covering in Chicago wheat which traded limit up at one point in the session, like KC, and led the wheat complex to a strong close for all three classes.

  • To see the current US 6 – 10 day and 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation outlooks courtesy of NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for Old Crop. The market had a nearly 140-cent swing from the May low to the June high and back on weather. Use any remaining bounces in the market to price what Old Crop bushels you may have, if any. We won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2022 Corn (Cash, Calls, or Puts) as we have moved focus onto 2023 and 2024 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No action is recommended for New Crop 2023 corn. The future price potential for Dec 23 corn continues to be at the mercy of each new weather forecast. Dryness and dry weather forecasts pushed Dec corn from the May low to the June high with a gain of 137 cents, which was promptly erased and then some by mid-July, leaving the market 149 cents off that June high, with a surprise jump in acres and more favorable forecasts. Now, the threat of dry weather again has rallied Dec corn more than 80 cents off that July 13 low.  During the runup in early June, we warned that any change in the forecast to wetter weather could erase all the gains as corn didn’t have much of a bullish fundamental story without a supply-side shock fueled by lower yields. Overall, our thought process has not changed from a month ago and with the tremendous uncertainty, and subsequent volatility still in front of us, we continue to recommend holding the Strangle options position, comprised of the previously bought Dec 610 calls and Dec 580 puts. A turn back to wetter weather and we wouldn’t be surprised to see sub-500 corn again, and if dry weather persists, we wouldn’t be surprised to see corn prices north of 700. Under either of these scenarios, the Strangle will benefit and doesn’t require trying to outguess the weather.  

  • No action is currently recommended for 2024 corn. In 2012, the best pricing opportunities for Dec 2013 corn were during the 2012 summer runup. Despite the significant yield losses to the 2012 crop, and the fear of running out of corn, the Dec 2013 contract peaked in the summer of 2012, and by January 2, 2013, the price was already down about 12% from the high. We continue to watch the calendar for 2024 corn as this 2023 summer volatility could provide some additional opportunities to get some good early sales on the books in the event of a 2013-type repeat. Insider recently recommended making a sale on your 2024 crop, and we’ll be watching for another opportunity to suggest adding to prior early sales levels between now and the beginning of September. 

  • The corn market added weather and war premium to its value for another session on Wednesday, as prices pushed through resistance, triggering strong money flow into the corn market. 

  • Increasing tensions in the Black Sea region helped trigger short covering. A second attack on the Odesa port in Ukraine may have damaged some wheat supplies, and an announcement by the Russian Defense ministry regarding ship traffic in the region to be treated as military supply ships triggered a limit higher move during the day in wheat futures, helping support corn prices as well.

  • Weather forecasts have turned significantly drier over the next couple weeks, and temperatures are moving to a warmer trend. Weather models have moved potential rainfall out of the forecast or pushed the potential further south on maps.

  • Technically, the corn market traded through the 100-day moving average on Dec futures and may be targeting the 200-day moving average at $5.75. The strong close will likely lead to additional buying and short covering in the market.

  • Demand remains a concern and the USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Expectations for corn export sales to stay at a slow pace, which will now be limited by the recent price rally.

Above: In mid-July the corn market was oversold and posted a double bottom at 474. Since then, it has rallied significantly toward the 50-day moving average. While the market has upward momentum, it may run into resistance near the 50-day MA. If the market closes above the 50-day MA, it could signal a change in trend to higher, though heavy resistance remains up towards 595 – 625 and it would need further bullish news to break through. Below the market, key support lies near the recent 474 low. 

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is being recommended for Old Crop. Any remaining old crop bushels should be getting priced into this rally. We won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2022 Soybeans (Cash, Calls, or Puts) as we have moved focus onto 2023 and 2024 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • Grain Market Insider sees an active opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 soybeans. The USDA shocked the market with bearish expectations for the 2023 soybean crop’s supply and demand. Demand was lowered for both 2022 and 2023 crop years, with an added 25 mbu of 2022 inventory carried over to 2023. The net result being a current ending stocks estimate of 300 mbu for the 2023 crop, a full 50% higher than trade expectations. While the key part of the growing season is still ahead, and production concerns remain, that could turn the market higher again, continued favorable forecasts and improving crop conditions may lead the market to further price erosion. With the very dry conditions that many of you continue to experience, and the tremendous uncertainty that brings to what you’ll have for bushels this fall, we understand if there’s hesitancy to sell anything here. If you are worried about committing physical bushels with a cash sale, consider selling futures or buying put options.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop. Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for the 2024 crop, though it may not be until after harvest or toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales. 

  • Soybeans ended the day higher along with both corn and wheat but slipped from their earlier highs. Soybean meal had early gains but ended only slightly higher in the front two months and lower in the deferred contracts, while soybean oil gained over 3% in Aug.

  • Today marks the fifth consecutively higher close for soybeans in a market that is mainly being driven by weather which is forecast to be hot and dry over at least the next two weeks, along with the cancellation of the grain deal which will impact sunflower meal and oil exports out of Ukraine.

  • The forecast analysis released today is expecting hot and dry conditions over the next 10 days, and early August is expected to produce much of the same weather. Late August is more difficult to forecast due to tropical cyclones and cooler air out of Canada, and this period will be critical for pod filling.

  • Brazilian soy exports reached 8.8 mmt in July compared to 7.0 mmt the same month a year ago as demand from China picks up, and Brazil maintains the competitive advantage with prices far below offers from the US.

Above: The soybean charts rolled from the August to the September contract on 7/17 with the 75-cent discount to the September represented by the 52-cent gap on the chart between 7/14 and 7/17. To fill the gap, the market will need additional bullish news to continue higher and trade through the heavy resistance area of 1490 – 1505. If not, and prices retreat, initial support below the market is near 1400 with further support being in the 1350 – 1390 area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Both September Chicago and KC wheat briefly traded limit up at 60 cents higher, 730-3/4  and 887-1/4,  before closing just below. News broke mid-morning that Russia stated as of July 20th any Black Sea vessel en route to Ukraine would be considered carriers of military cargo. With the recent closure of the export corridor, this further heightens tensions and is adding war premium to the market.

  • In addition to the statement by Russia, it was reported that a Russian missile attack destroyed 60,000 tons of grain in the port city of Odesa, Ukraine. This added fuel to the fire, with more support for the wheat rally.

  • The US Dollar index is beginning to trend higher again and is back above the 100 level (at the time of writing). By some technical indicators it could also be considered oversold, meaning that it could be due for a correction higher, which may lead to more pressure on the already struggling export market down the road.

  • Paris milling wheat futures gapped higher, with the front month September contract gaining 19.25 Euros per metric ton. This is a massive jump and is likely tied to the Russia / Ukraine news as well and is the highest close for that contract since April.

  • Aside from today’s headlines, US Midwest weather looks warm and dry for the next week or two, which should provide support to the grain markets as a whole. The second week of the forecast also brings hotter temperatures, with the potential for 90 degrees and higher in many spots.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 New Crop. The wheat market has seen a great amount of volatility in recent weeks and has primarily been a follower of corn which has been driven by weather.  Although demand remains weak, the recent closure of the Black Sea corridor, and continued weather concerns in the northern Plains, Canada, Europe, and Russia, still leave many supply questions unanswered. While Grain Market Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any violation of major support following the recent sales recommendation, it may be after harvest or near the end of summer before we consider recommending any additional sales for the 2023 crop.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since the middle of June, price volatility has risen with updated USDA reports, changing weather forecasts, and current events in the Black Sea.  While prices have fallen off their recent highs, plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. War continues in the Black Sea region, major exporting countries’ stocks are at 11-year lows, and no one knows what the weather will bring, leaving the market vulnerable to many uncertainties. For now, after recommending making a sale for the 2024 crop, and while keeping an eye on the market to see if any major support is broken, Grain Market Insider would need to see prices north of 800 before considering recommending any additional sales.

  •  No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: September wheat rallied nearly 200 cents from the May low to its June high when it encountered heavy resistance and posted a bearish reversal. While prices have been relatively range bound recently, heavy resistance remains near 730 – 770, the June high, with nearby resistance around 690 – 700. If prices fall back, support below the market may be found between 650 – 610, and again near 570, the May low. 

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • We continue to look for better prices before making any 2023 sales.  While crop conditions have improved and there are reports of better-than-expected US yields, questions remain about the world wheat supply with the closure of the Black Sea corridor, dryness in Russia, the Canadian Prairies/Northern US Plains, and Europe. With world supplies currently seen at 11-year lows, we continue to target 950 – 1000 in the July futures as a potential level to suggest the next round of New Crop sales.

  • Patience is warranted for the 2024 crop. With continued issues in the Black Sea region and with major exporting countries’ stocks expected to fall to 16-year lows, we are willing to be patient with further sales of New Crop HRW wheat. We are targeting just below the 900 level on the upside while keeping an eye on recent lows for any violation of support.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Balancing both production and demand concerns, the September contract continues to trade within the 736 – 919 range established in May. The recent downturn in the market has established heavy resistance above the market between 890 – 920, with initial support coming in between 778 – 763 and key support near the May low of 736.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action for 2022 Old Crop MINNEAPOLIS Wheat. The market had a nearly 116-cent swing from the May low to the June high and back on weather. While weather and geopolitical events can still affect Old Crop prices, the marketing year for Old Crop is quickly winding down, and any additional upside opportunities may be more difficult to come by before New Crop harvest. Use any remaining bounces in the market to price what Old Crop bushels you may have, if any. We won’t have any “New Alerts” for the 2022 crop (Cash, Calls, or Puts) as we have moved focus onto 2023 and 2024 Crop Year opportunities.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather dominates the market right now, and though much of the growing season remains, Grain Market Insider suggested making a sale as prices closed below 822 to protect from further downside erosion due to a potential trend change.  Seasonally, there isn’t a strong likelihood of higher prices until after harvest, although both weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to shock the market higher. Insider will consider making sales suggestions if prices improve through this growing season, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 spring wheat crop. So far this year we have seen some of the volatility from the 2023 crop, with its challenges from late planting and now dryness, be carried over to the 2024 crop. We are now at that time of year where there are typically more headwinds to prices than tailwinds, and to begin getting some early sales on the books. Now that the market has rallied to within 15 cents of the June high where there is significant overhead resistance, Insider recommends making a sale on a portion of your 2024 spring wheat production by using either SEPT ’24 Minneapolis Wheat futures contracts or a SEPT ’24 HTA contract, so basis can be set at a later, more advantageous time. While $8 prices are not the $9 or $10+ that we have seen in recent years, and weather and geopolitical disruptions can still shock the market higher, they still represent historically good prices to begin making sales.

Above: In the month of June, the September contract rallied towards the 200-day moving average and into resistance between 889 and 940, the April and December highs respectively. The market has since retreated and slowly climbed back, and it will need additional bullish news to be able to trade through the recent highs. Should the market fall back, initial support may be found between 805 – 845 with further downside support between 770 and 730. 

Other Charts / Weather

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Midday Update: July 19, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
SEP ’23 547.25 18.5
DEC ’23 554.25 19.75
DEC ’24 540.75 10.75
Soybeans
AUG ’23 1506 14
NOV ’23 1417.75 22.5
NOV ’24 1297.25 16
Chicago Wheat
SEP ’23 730.75 60
DEC ’23 749.5 59
JUL ’24 769.75 52.5
K.C. Wheat
SEP ’23 877 49.75
DEC ’23 882.5 50.25
JUL ’24 838 38.25
Mpls Wheat
SEP ’23 908 30.5
DEC ’23 917 30.5
SEP ’24 835.5 20.5
S&P 500
SEP ’23 4602.25 14.5
Crude Oil
SEP ’23 76.46 0.8
Gold
OCT ’23 1997.9 -1.9

  • Corn is trading higher this afternoon but has faded significantly off its highs from early this morning which was led by a new Russian attack on the port city of Odessa in Ukraine.

  • Projections for ethanol production for the week ending July 14 is showing production higher than the previous week at 1.042 million b/d with the stockpile average estimate above a week ago.

  • The 10-day forecast for the Corn Belt is still showing dry conditions with temperatures turning the hottest of the season beginning this weekend. Minnesota received some light showers overnight.

  • Brazil continues to dominate export sales and is projected to continue this into the fall, but Brazilian FOB basis has increased between 60 and 65 cents per bushel in the last month making the US slightly more competitive.

  • Soybeans are continuing their trend higher again today but have slipped from earlier highs as corn has. Nov beans made new highs for the year today, but soybean meal has slipped lower and soybean oil is posting gains of nearly 3%.

  • The NWS will likely release their 30 and 90-day forecasts this week which the soy complex will watch closely for an idea on moisture and temperature into the pod fill season.

  • Forecasts are predicting that August will begin with higher-than-normal temperatures in the western Corn Belt, so rainfall will be important to shore up the poor current soil moisture levels.

  • NOPA June soybean crush fell to a 9-month low of 165.023 million bushels, down from the 177.915 mb processed in May.

  • Wheat is trading higher at midday following attacks on Ukraine’s port of Odessa in the Black Sea by Russia, as well as poor crop conditions in the US.

  • Breaking news was just released that the Russian Defense Ministry will consider all ships traveling to Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea as potential carriers of military cargo.

  • This morning, Russia said that ships in the Black Sea would be “in danger”, but they have also said that they would be willing to come back to negotiate in 3 months if the UN makes good on Russian demands.

  • The UN is apparently “floating” ideas on how to get Ukrainian and Russian grain out to the rest of the world as the Black Sea is closed.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: July 19, 2023

Bygmidev

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’23 546 17.25
DEC ’23 552.25 17.75
DEC ’24 540 10

Soybeans

AUG ’23 1510 18
NOV ’23 1413.75 18.5
NOV ’24 1293.5 12.25

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’23 693.75 23
DEC ’23 713.25 22.75
JUL ’24 739 21.75

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’23 844.5 17.25
DEC ’23 849.5 17.25
JUL ’24 817.5 17.75

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’23 889 11.5
DEC ’23 898.5 12
SEP ’24 822.5 7.5

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4586.25 -1.5

Crude Oil

SEP ’23 75.77 0.11

Gold

OCT ’23 1995 -4.8

  • Corn is trading higher again today continuing its rally after Russia attacked Ukraine’s port city of Odessa again last night inflicting much more damage than the previous night.

  • The 10-day forecast for the Corn Belt is still showing dry conditions with temperatures turning the hottest of the season beginning this weekend. Minnesota received some light showers overnight.

  • Projections for ethanol production for the week ending July 14 is showing production higher than the previous week at 1.042 million b/d with the stockpile average estimate above a week ago.

  • Barchart has raised their corn yield estimates to a yield of 177.97 bpa which compares the the USDA’s most recent forecast of 177.76 bpa.

  • Soybeans are trading higher again this morning with the Nov contract making a new high for 2023. Soybean meal’s gains are helping this rally, and soybean oil is higher as well.

  • Forecasts are predicting that August will begin with higher than normal temperatures in the Western Corn Belt, so rainfall will be important to shore up the poor current soil moisture levels.

  • The NWS will likely release their 30 and 90-day forecasts this week which the soy complex will watch closely for an idea on moisture and temperature into pod fill season.

  • India’s oilmeals exports fell to 280,001 tons in June from 436,596 tons in May.

  • Wheat is beginning the day higher with Chicago wheat leading the way followed by KC and Minn following news of last nights Russian attack on Ukraine’s port city.

  • After Russia withdrew from the grain deal they attacked Ukraine’s port city of Odessa with minimal damage and no casualties, but reports have come in of a second attack from last night which a spokesperson from Odessa called it a “hellish night”. It is assumed much more damage was done during this attack.

  • This morning, Russia said that ships in the Black Sea would be “in danger”, but they have also said that they would be willing to come back to negotiate in 3 months if the UN makes good on Russian demands.

  • The UN is apparently “floating” ideas on how to get Ukrainian and Russia grain out to the rest of the world as the Black Sea is closed.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Grain Market Insider: July 18, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 1:45 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Short covering, triggered by a warmer and drier forecast and the escalation of tensions in the Black Sea region drove December prices to close above yesterday’s highs.

  • Like corn, the soybean market surged higher, aided by soybean meal and a much warmer and drier forecast.  Soybean oil on the other hand closed with a 56-point loss and weighed on crush margins, which lost 8 -1/2 cents in the December contracts.

  • The addition of war premium and the closure of the Black Sea export corridor likely sparked some short covering and led the wheat complex mostly higher with the exception of September Minneapolis, which closed lower.

  • To see the current US Drought Monitor and maps showing the current US 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation outlook courtesy of NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for Old Crop. The market had a nearly 140-cent swing from the May low to the June high and back on weather. Use any remaining bounces in the market to price what Old Crop bushels you may have, if any. We won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2022 Corn (Cash, Calls, or Puts) as we have moved focus onto 2023 and 2024 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No action is recommended for New Crop 2023 corn. In the month of June, December corn experienced a 137-cent high to low, swing primarily on weather and production concerns. Since then, planted acreage figures have increased by about 2 mil. acres and pushed the current 2023 carryout estimate north of 2.2 billion bushels, which hasn’t been seen since the 2018/19 crop year. When Dec corn was trading over 620, Grain Market Insider recommended making a cash sale and buying Dec 580 puts to cover more downside. The Dec 580 puts, paired with the previously recommended Dec 610 calls, yielded a combination of options commonly known as a Strangle, which benefits from dramatic market moves either up or down. Considering crop conditions continue to be low with over 60% of the crop experiencing drought, changing weather can still affect final production and rally prices, at which point the 610 calls should gain in value and protect any already sold bushels if the market makes new highs.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2024 corn.  So far this year the market has seen an extreme amount of volatility with drought, less than stellar crop conditions, and supply and demand estimates that currently put 2023 ending stocks north of 2.2 billion bushels, which would carry over into the 2024 crop year. While growing conditions can still change in the weeks ahead, we are at the time of year when there are more headwinds to rising prices than tailwinds. Grain Market Insider recently recommended making a sale on your 2024 crop, and we currently see no present opportunity to recommend any additional sales at this time. We’ll be watching for another opportunity to suggest adding to early sales levels between now and the beginning of September. 

  • The corn market added weather and war premium to its value on Tuesday as prices pushed through resistance, triggering strong money flow into the corn market.

  • Technically, the corn market traded through Monday’s reversal high, which likely triggered additional buying and short covering in the market.  The strong close has the corn market looking at the 100-day moving average as the next level of resistance.

  • The USDA released its weekly crop ratings, and the US corn crop was rated 55% good/excellent, up 2% from last week and above market expectations. The corn crop improved, supported by recent rainfall in areas of the Corn Belt.

  • Weather forecasts have turned significantly drier over the next couple weeks, and temperatures are moving to a warmer trend. Despite recent rainfall, 64% of the corn crop is in drought, and needs timely rainfall, and the warmer, drier conditions are timed with the pollination timetable, which could limit potential yield.

  • Russia officially leaving the Ukrainian Grain Export deal and the attack on the Odessa port in the Ukraine added additional buying strength to the corn and wheat markets on the session.

Above: Favorable weather and an estimated 2023 carryout north of 2 bil bushels pushed the market through support that was in place since January 2021 and posted a double bottom at 474. This, and the fact that the market is oversold, is supportive if reversal action occurs. In that event, initial resistance could be found between 502 – 538, with heavy resistance up towards 595 – 625.  Below the market there may not be much support above 390 – 415, the November ’20 lows, if the corn market falls below the recent low of 474.

Above: 2023/24 Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is being recommended for Old Crop. Any remaining old crop bushels should be getting priced into this rally. We won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2022 Soybeans (Cash, Calls, or Puts) as we have moved focus onto 2023 and 2024 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • Grain Market Insider sees an active opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 soybeans. The USDA shocked the market with bearish expectations for the 2023 soybean crop’s supply and demand. Demand was lowered for both 2022 and 2023 crop years, with an added 25 mbu of 2022 inventory carried over to 2023. The net result being a current ending stocks estimate of 300 mbu for the 2023 crop, a full 50% higher than trade expectations. While the key part of the growing season is still ahead, and production concerns remain, that could turn the market higher again, continued favorable forecasts and improving crop conditions may lead the market to further price erosion. With the very dry conditions that many of you continue to experience, and the tremendous uncertainty that brings to what you’ll have for bushels this fall, we understand if there’s hesitancy to sell anything here. If you are worried about committing physical bushels with a cash sale, consider selling futures or buying put options.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop. Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for the 2024 crop, though it may not be until after harvest or toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales. 

  • Soybeans ended the day higher but slipped from their early highs which exceeded the 14-dollar mark and reached the highest levels since January of this year. The rally in soybean meal has been a major catalyst for moving soybeans higher, but soybean oil ended lower.

  • Yesterday’s crop progress showed the soy crop improving more than the average trade guess with an increase of 4 points for a good to excellent rating of 55%. While an improvement, it is the second lowest rating since 2012, and only 20% of the crop is setting pods.

  • Soybean meal has been rallying due to Argentina’s shrinking soy crop which is estimated at 21 mmt (4 mmt below the last USDA estimate), and Argentina is the largest exporter of soybean meal.

  • With forecasts looking very dry and warm over the next two weeks, weather premium has been added to the market. Crop conditions improved over the past three weeks, but a two-week period of dry weather could easily send ratings back lower.

Above: The soybean charts rolled from the August to the September contract on 7/17 with the 75-cent discount to the September represented by the 52-cent gap on the chart between 7/14 and 7/17. To fill the gap, the market will need additional bullish news to continue higher and trade through the heavy resistance area of 1490 – 1505. If not, and prices retreat, initial support below the market is near 1400 with further support being in the 1350 – 1390 area.

Above: 2023/24 Soybeans percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted sharp gains, perhaps on a delayed reaction to the news of the cancellation of the Black Sea grain corridor. Additionally, some more war premium could be factored in after it was reported that Russia launched a new round of attacks on the port city of Odessa in Ukraine.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed that spring wheat condition improved 4% to 51% good to excellent. This may have limited the upside today for MPLS futures, relative to the gains in Chicago and KC.

  • US winter wheat harvest at 56% complete, continues to lag behind the average pace of 69% complete for this time of year.

  • UkrAgroConsult increased their estimate of Russian 23/24 wheat exports to 47 mmt (up 2 mmt). The weaker Russian Ruble may be a contributing factor. Additionally, their estimate of the 2023 Russian wheat harvest was increased by 0.4 mmt to 85.2 mmt.

  • Argentina’s wheat planting area estimate has been reduced by Bolsa de Rosario to 5.4 million hectares due to dry conditions. Production was also revised down to 15.6 mmt.  

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 New Crop. The wheat market has seen a great amount of volatility in recent weeks and has primarily been a follower of corn which has been driven by weather.  Although demand remains weak, the recent closure of the Black Sea corridor, and continued weather concerns in the northern Plains, Canada, Europe, and Russia, still leave many supply questions unanswered. While Grain Market Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any violation of major support following the recent sales recommendation, it may be after harvest or near the end of summer before we consider recommending any additional sales for the 2023 crop.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since the middle of June, price volatility has risen with updated USDA reports, changing weather forecasts, and current events in the Black Sea.  While prices have fallen off their recent highs, plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. War continues in the Black Sea region, major exporting countries’ stocks are at 11-year lows, and no one knows what the weather will bring, leaving the market vulnerable to many uncertainties. For now, after recommending making a sale for the 2024 crop, and while keeping an eye on the market to see if any major support is broken, Grain Market Insider would need to see prices north of 800 before considering recommending any additional sales.

  •  No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: September wheat rallied nearly 200 cents from the May low to its June high when it encountered heavy resistance and posted a bearish reversal. While prices have been relatively range bound recently, heavy resistance remains near 730 – 770, the June high, with nearby resistance around 690 – 700. If prices fall back, support below the market may be found between 650 – 610, and again near 570, the May low. 

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • We continue to look for better prices before making any 2023 sales.  While crop conditions have improved and there are reports of better-than-expected US yields, questions remain about the world wheat supply with the closure of the Black Sea corridor, dryness in Russia, the Canadian Prairies/Northern US Plains, and Europe. With world supplies currently seen at 11-year lows, we continue to target 950 – 1000 in the July futures as a potential level to suggest the next round of New Crop sales.

  • Patience is warranted for the 2024 crop. With continued issues in the Black Sea region and with major exporting countries’ stocks expected to fall to 16-year lows, we are willing to be patient with further sales of New Crop HRW wheat. We are targeting just below the 900 level on the upside while keeping an eye on recent lows for any violation of support.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Balancing both production and demand concerns, the September contract continues to trade within the 736 – 919 range established in May. The recent downturn in the market has established heavy resistance above the market between 890 – 920, with initial support coming in between 778 – 763 and key support near the May low of 736.

Above: 2023/24 Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action for 2022 Old Crop MINNEAPOLIS Wheat. The market had a nearly 116-cent swing from the May low to the June high and back on weather. While weather and geopolitical events can still affect Old Crop prices, the marketing year for Old Crop is quickly winding down, and any additional upside opportunities may be more difficult to come by before New Crop harvest. Use any remaining bounces in the market to price what Old Crop bushels you may have, if any. We won’t have any “New Alerts” for the 2022 crop (Cash, Calls, or Puts) as we have moved focus onto 2023 and 2024 Crop Year opportunities.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather dominates the market right now, and though much of the growing season remains, Grain Market Insider suggested making a sale as prices closed below 822 to protect from further downside erosion due to a potential trend change.  Seasonally, there isn’t a strong likelihood of higher prices until after harvest, although both weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to shock the market higher. Insider will consider making sales suggestions if prices improve through this growing season, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 spring wheat crop. So far this year we have seen some of the volatility from the 2023 crop, with its challenges from late planting and now dryness, be carried over to the 2024 crop. We are now at that time of year where there are typically more headwinds to prices than tailwinds, and to begin getting some early sales on the books. Now that the market has rallied to within 15 cents of the June high where there is significant overhead resistance, Insider recommends making a sale on a portion of your 2024 spring wheat production by using either SEPT ’24 Minneapolis Wheat futures contracts or a SEPT ’24 HTA contract, so basis can be set at a later, more advantageous time. While $8 prices are not the $9 or $10+ that we have seen in recent years, and weather and geopolitical disruptions can still shock the market higher, they still represent historically good prices to begin making sales.

Above: In the month of June, the September contract rallied towards the 200-day moving average and into resistance between 889 and 940, the April and December highs respectively. The market has since retreated and slowly climbed back, and it will need additional bullish news to be able to trade through the recent highs. Should the market fall back, initial support may be found between 805 – 845 with further downside support between 770 and 730. 

Above: 2023/24 Spring wheat percent Good to Excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather

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Midday Update: July 18, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
SEP ’23 515.25 16
DEC ’23 521 15
DEC ’24 520.25 9.5
Soybeans
AUG ’23 1496 12
NOV ’23 1395.25 17.25
NOV ’24 1280.25 9
Chicago Wheat
SEP ’23 669 15.25
DEC ’23 688.75 15
JUL ’24 714 14.25
K.C. Wheat
SEP ’23 831.25 16
DEC ’23 835.5 15.5
JUL ’24 796.5 11.75
Mpls Wheat
SEP ’23 879.25 1
DEC ’23 887.75 2
SEP ’24 805.5 5.5
S&P 500
SEP ’23 4570.25 16.5
Crude Oil
SEP ’23 75.4 1.32
Gold
OCT ’23 2006.5 31

  • Corn is trading higher today and is on track for the third higher close in the last four trading days. This comes after the withdrawal of Russia from the grain deal and despite an improvement in crop conditions.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed corn good to excellent ratings improving by 2 points to 57%. National corn pollination is now 47% complete with northern states entering their pollination phase.

  • The 8-to-14-day forecast remains dry and warm which could easily pose a threat to yield. Some rains are forecast to fall in the North while very scattered showers are expected in the Corn Belt over the next 7 days.

  • Yesterday’s corn export inspections were slow again with inspections totaling 14.3 mb for the week ending Thursday, July 13. Total inspections for 22/23 are now at 1.334 bb and down 33% from the previous year.

  • Soybeans are continuing their move higher and have taken out their more recent high from July 3 as soybean meal continues to rally on low Argentinian supply. Soybean oil is trading slightly higher.

  • Yesterday’s crop progress showed the soy crop improving more than the average trade guess with an increase of 4 points for a good to excellent rating of 55%. While an improvement, it is the second lowest rating since 2012, and only 20% of the crop are setting pods.

  • NOPA June soybean crush fell to a 9-month low of 165.023 million bushels, down from the 177.915 mb processed in May.

  • Chinese purchases of soybeans picked up last week, but they mainly sourced from Brazil and only bought small amounts from the US. There have been rumors that China has been buying more September and October beans from Brazil in the past week.

  • Wheat is trading higher at midday with KC posting the most gains and Chicago not far behind after Russia attacked Ukraine’s port of Odessa overnight in retaliation to the attack on the Crimean bridge.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed an increase in spring wheat’s good to excellent ratings by 4 points to 51%, but with the upcoming dry and warm forecast, crop conditions could easily drop back down.

  • Russia’s withdrawal from the grain deal, in addition to their attack on Odessa, has sent wheat prices moving higher globally with Russian wheat reportedly up 50 cents per bushel in the past two weeks.

  • Winter wheat harvest in the US is now 56% complete but continues to lag the average pace of 69%. Harvest in Kansas meanwhile saw a 12% jump from last week and is now 71% complete.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: July 18, 2023

Bygmidev

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’23 508.75 9.5
DEC ’23 515.5 9.5
DEC ’24 515 4.25

Soybeans

AUG ’23 1495.5 11.5
NOV ’23 1389.75 11.75
NOV ’24 1281.75 10.5

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’23 663 9.25
DEC ’23 683.75 10
JUL ’24 708.5 8.75

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’23 822.75 7.5
DEC ’23 827.5 7.5
JUL ’24 784.75 -7.5

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’23 878.75 0.5
DEC ’23 886 0.25
SEP ’24 805.5 5.5

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4552 -1.75

Crude Oil

SEP ’23 74.4 0.32

Gold

OCT ’23 1990.4 14.9

  • Corn is trading higher this morning after reports came in that Russia attacked Ukraine’s port city of Odessa, seemingly solidifying their withdrawal from the grain deal and retaliating for the Crimea bridge attack.

  • Crop conditions showed the good to excellent rating for corn improving by 2% to 57%, on par with trade guesses. This is still the third worst rating for this date since 1988, however.

  • The three worse ratings in mid July were in 1988, 2012, and 2005, but those crops did not trend higher in mid July, and this year’s corn crop has improved by 7% in just three weeks.

  • The 8 to 14 day forecast is still showing below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures primarily in the eastern Corn Belt which may be adding some weather premium today.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning and are being led by soybean meal which is on a strong rally, while soybean oil is slightly higher.

  • Crop progress showed the soy crop’s good to excellent rating improving by 4% last week to 55% which was above the average trade guess and a result of rainfall in the past few weeks.

  • Soybean meal has been rallying due to Argentina’s shrinking soy crop which is estimated at 21 mmt (4 mmt below the last USDA estimate), and Argentina is the largest exporter of soybean meal.

  • NOPA June soybean crush fell to a 9-month low of 165.023 million bushels, down from the 177.915 mb processed in May.

  • Wheat is trading higher alongside corn and soybeans this morning with Chicago leading the way, followed by KC. Russia’s attack on the port city of Odessa is likely helping futures.

  • Crop conditions showed spring wheat good to excellent ratings improving by 4% from last week to 51%, 10 points below last year’s rating at this time.

  • The winter wheat harvest is now 56% complete compared to 46% last week, but behind last year’s 71% at this time.

  • After Russia blamed Ukraine for the attack on the Crimean bridge over the weekend, Russia withdrew from the grain deal and promised retaliation which came in the way of the attack on Ukraine’s port city of Odessa, but only 1 person was injured and nearly all of the missiles and drones were shot down.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Grain Market Insider: July 17, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 1:45 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn traded lower for most of the day after it gapped higher on the evening’s open following the expiration of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, in a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” type of fashion, as traders likely felt the corridor’s closure was already priced into the market.

  • The soybean market was caught between weak export inspections and NOPA crush demand, and a concerning weather forecast that shows hot and dry conditions in much of the WCB, and the northern and central Plains, two weeks out.

  • Weak demand likely outweighed the anticipated closure of the Black Sea export corridor as all three wheat markets sold off after the morning’s reopening led by the K.C. contracts.

  • The US Dollar continues to trade at its lowest levels in 15 months, which is generally supportive to the commodity sector as a lower USD makes US exports lower on the world market. The financial markets are currently predicting a 96% likelihood of a 0.25% rate increase at next week’s Fed meeting.

  • To see the current US Drought Monitor and maps showing the current US 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation outlook courtesy of NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for Old Crop. The market had a nearly 140-cent swing from the May low to the June high and back on weather. Use any remaining bounces in the market to price what Old Crop bushels you may have, if any. We won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2022 Corn (Cash, Calls, or Puts) as we have moved focus onto 2023 and 2024 Crop Year Opportunities.

  • No action is recommended for New Crop 2023 corn. In the month of June, December corn experienced a 137-cent high to low, swing primarily on weather and production concerns. Since then, planted acreage figures have increased by about 2 mil. acres and pushed the current 2023 carryout estimate north of 2.2 billion bushels, which hasn’t been seen since the 2018/19 crop year. When Dec corn was trading over 620, Grain Market Insider recommended making a cash sale and buying Dec 580 puts to cover more downside. The Dec 580 puts, paired with the previously recommended Dec 610 calls, yielded a combination of options commonly known as a Strangle, which benefits from dramatic market moves either up or down. Considering crop conditions continue to be low with over 60% of the crop experiencing drought, changing weather can still affect final production and rally prices, at which point the 610 calls should gain in value and protect any already sold bushels if the market makes new highs.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2024 corn.  So far this year the market has seen an extreme amount of volatility with drought, less than stellar crop conditions, and supply and demand estimates that currently put 2023 ending stocks north of 2.2 billion bushels, which would carry over into the 2024 crop year. While growing conditions can still change in the weeks ahead, we are at the time of year when there are more headwinds to rising prices than tailwinds. Grain Market Insider recently recommended making a sale on your 2024 crop, and we currently see no present opportunity to recommend any additional sales at this time. We’ll be watching for another opportunity to suggest adding to early sales levels between now and the beginning of September. 

  • Export inspections for the week ending July 13 came in at the lower end of expectations at 14.3 mb. Though the number was an increase from the prior week, they are still light, and year-to-date totals are 33% behind last year, though in line with the updated USDA forecast.

  • Russia terminated the Black Sea Grain Initiative that allowed Ukraine to ship ag goods out through the Black Sea. Russia claims the deal was terminated because their terms in the agreement were not fulfilled.

  • Part of the sell off in the corn market may be, “buy the rumor, sell the fact,” in that the termination of the deal may have already been priced into the market. The USDA, in its latest report, may have already accounted for the closure by forecasting Ukraine’s 23/24 corn exports at only 19.5 mmt, down 30% from 22/23.

  • Since the recent break in prices, China has been an active buyer of South American and Ukrainian corn which is supportive of US prices, in that overall prices may have fallen enough to stimulate demand. Relative to the world market, US prices have become much more competitive since Brazil’s export prices have risen about $1.25 on slow farmer selling. It’s also been reported that China bought 6 or 7 cargoes for July – Sept delivery.

  • The USDA will release its updated estimate for US crop conditions this afternoon with some calling for a 1 – 2% increase in the Good/Excellent ratings from last week’s 55% rating.

Above: Favorable weather and an estimated 2023 carryout north of 2 bil bushels pushed the market through support that was in place since January 2021 and posted a double bottom at 474. This, and the fact that the market is oversold, is supportive if reversal action occurs. In that event, initial resistance could be found between 502 – 538, with heavy resistance up towards 595 – 625.  Below the market there may not be much support above 390 – 415, the November ’20 lows, if the corn market falls below the recent low of 474.

Above: Money Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 44,843 contracts between July 3 – 11, bringing their total position to a net short 63,052 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is being recommended for Old Crop. Any remaining old crop bushels should be getting priced into this rally. We won’t have any “New Alerts” for 2022 Soybeans (Cash, Calls, or Puts) as we have moved focus onto 2023 and 2024 Crop Year Opportunities. 

  • Grain Market Insider sees an active opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 soybeans. The USDA shocked the market with bearish expectations for the 2023 soybean crop’s supply and demand. Demand was lowered for both 2022 and 2023 crop years, with an added 25 mbu of 2022 inventory carried over to 2023. The net result being a current ending stocks estimate of 300 mbu for the 2023 crop, a full 50% higher than trade expectations. While the key part of the growing season is still ahead, and production concerns remain, that could turn the market higher again, continued favorable forecasts and improving crop conditions may lead the market to further price erosion. With the very dry conditions that many of you continue to experience, and the tremendous uncertainty that brings to what you’ll have for bushels this fall, we understand if there’s hesitancy to sell anything here. If you are worried about committing physical bushels with a cash sale, consider selling futures or buying put options.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop. Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for the 2024 crop, though it may not be until after harvest or toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales. 

  • Soybeans ended the day higher, but backed off their early morning highs that were led by Russia’s exit of the Ukrainian grain deal. The news initially caused soybean oil to rally because Ukraine exports a large amount of sunflower oil, but by the end of the day, excitement wore off and soybean oil closed lower, while soybean meal maintained a higher close.

  • Soybean export inspections were soft today which did not help support futures. Inspections totaled 5.7 mb for the week ending Thursday, July 13. Total inspections for 22/23 are now at 1.833 bb, down 5% from the previous year.

  • NOPA crush numbers for the month of June were released this morning and only 165 mb of soybeans were crushed with 1.690 bil pounds in soybean oil stocks. The number of soybeans crushed was well below expectations of 170 – 173 mb as were oil stocks, which were expected to be closer to 1.8 bil. pounds.

  • The 8 to 14-day forecast is showing drier and warmer conditions, but the rain over the past two weeks should be enough to improve the good to excellent ratings for this week’s Crop Progress report. The extended forecasts for August may give some insight into conditions for pod fill season.

  • China’s economy has been a bearish factor as trade has been concerned over the lack of growth. Today those fears were confirmed after second quarter GDP readings showed a slowing economy, which grew at a lower-than-expected rate of 6.3%. China has been purchasing Brazilian beans, but purchases from the US have been very slow.

Above: The soybean charts have rolled from the August to the September contract where heavy resistance lies between 1390 – 1430 in September. To continue higher, the market continues to need an influx of bullish news to offset the negative influence of the bearish reversal that was posted on July 12. 1490 – 1505 remains the next heavy resistance area should the market break through 1390 – 1430. If not, and prices retreat, initial support below the market is near 1425 with further support being in the 1350 – 1390 area.

Above: Soybeans Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 6,394 contracts between July 3 – 11, bringing their total position to a net long 82,748 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Overnight, wheat traded higher based on news that Russia decided to end the Black Sea Grain Initiative. However, by the end of today’s session, all three US wheat futures classes posted losses. This could perhaps be due to the results of the deal already being “baked in” to prices, with many traders anticipating the corridor being closed.

  • The USDA pegged weekly wheat inspections at 9.3 mb, bringing total 23/24 inspections to 65 mb, down 16% from last year. With the USDA estimating wheat exports at 725 mb, the current pace of exports is below what is needed to meet that number.

  • The US Dollar remains below the 100 mark but may be finding some support after the recent sharp decline. In the long run, a lower US Dollar should help the export market, but if it begins to trend higher again, that will add to pressure on commodities, especially wheat.

  • There is some concern, globally, about spring wheat supply. But here in the US, export demand is low due to other world origins being cheaper and may keep pressure on MPLS futures.

  • According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s summer wheat harvest of 146.13 mmt, was 0.9% below last year’s. This is being attributed to the rain damage they received during the growing season.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 New Crop. In the month of June, the September Chicago wheat contract posted a 163-cent range and has largely been a follower of the corn market which has been mostly driven by weather. While demand remains weak, production concerns in parts of the country remain, as does uncertainty surrounding the Black Sea region and the potential for major exporting countries’ inventory to hit 16-year lows. While Grain Market Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any violation of major support, following the recent sales recommendation it may be after harvest or near the end of summer before we consider recommending any additional sales for the 2023 crop.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since the middle of June, price volatility has risen with updated USDA reports, changing weather forecasts, and current events in the Black Sea.  While prices have fallen off their recent highs, plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. War continues in the Black Sea region, major exporting countries’ stocks are at 11-year lows, and no one knows what the weather will bring, leaving the market vulnerable to many uncertainties. For now, after recommending making a sale for the 2024 crop, and while keeping an eye on the market to see if any major support is broken, Grain Market Insider would need to see prices north of 800 before considering recommending any additional sales.

  •  No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: September wheat rallied nearly 200 cents from the May low to its June high when it encountered heavy resistance and posted a bearish reversal. This technical formation on the price chart is considered bearish and momentum may be adding to the bearish tone. Support below the market may be found between 650 – 610, while resistance above the market rests between 770 – 810.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 1,878 contracts between July 3 – 11, bringing their total position to a net short 52,128 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • We continue to look for better prices before making any 2023 sales.  While crop conditions have improved and there are reports of better-than-expected US yields, questions remain about the world wheat supply with the closure of the Black Sea corridor, dryness in Russia, the Canadian Prairies/Northern US Plains, and Europe. With world supplies currently seen at 11-year lows, we continue to target 950 – 1000 in the July futures as a potential level to suggest the next round of New Crop sales.

  • Patience is warranted for the 2024 crop. With continued issues in the Black Sea region and with major exporting countries’ stocks expected to fall to 16-year lows, we are willing to be patient with further sales of New Crop HRW wheat. We are targeting just below the 900 level on the upside while keeping an eye on recent lows for any violation of support.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Balancing both production and demand concerns, the September contract continues to trade within the 736 – 919 range established in May. The recent downturn in the market has established heavy resistance above the market between 890 – 920, with initial support coming in between 778 – 763 and key support near the May low of 736.

Above: K.C. Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 824 contracts between July 3 – 11, bringing their total position to a net long 14,584 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action for 2022 Old Crop MINNEAPOLIS Wheat. The market had a nearly 116-cent swing from the May low to the June high and back on weather. While weather and geopolitical events can still affect Old Crop prices, the marketing year for Old Crop is quickly winding down, and any additional upside opportunities may be more difficult to come by before New Crop harvest. Use any remaining bounces in the market to price what Old Crop bushels you may have, if any. We won’t have any “New Alerts” for the 2022 crop (Cash, Calls, or Puts) as we have moved focus onto 2023 and 2024 Crop Year opportunities.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather dominates the market right now, and though much of the growing season remains, Grain Market Insider suggested making a sale as prices closed below 822 to protect from further downside erosion due to a potential trend change.  Seasonally, there isn’t a strong likelihood of higher prices until after harvest, although both weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to shock the market higher. Insider will consider making sales suggestions if prices improve through this growing season, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support.

  • No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. With weather dominating the market right now, 2024 prices can be heavily influenced by 2023 carryover estimates and prices. As dryness increases in the spring wheat areas and with major exporting countries’ stocks at 11-year lows, Grain Market Insider would like to see September futures prices in the 800 – 825 range before we would consider suggesting making any sales recommendations, while keeping an eye on the recent lows for any violation of support.

Above: In the month of June, the September contract rallied towards the 200-day moving average and into resistance between 889 and 940, the April and December highs respectively. The market has since retreated and slowly climbed back, and it will need additional bullish news to be able to trade through the recent highs. Should the market fall back, initial support may be found between 805 – 845 with further downside support between 770 and 730. 

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 11. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,311 contracts between July 3 – 11, bringing their total position to a net long 4233 contracts.

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