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Opening Update: September 18, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 476.25 0
MAR ’24 490 -0.5
DEC ’24 508.25 -0.25

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1336.25 -4
JAN ’24 1351.75 -4
NOV ’24 1279.75 -2.75

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 595.5 -8.75
MAR ’24 621.75 -7.75
JUL ’24 645.75 -6.25

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 736 -10.5
MAR ’24 739.75 -11.75
JUL ’24 725.5 -10.75

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 784 -5
MAR ’24 800.5 -3.5
SEP ’24 808.25 2.25

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4500.75 2.75

Crude Oil

NOV ’23 90.48 0.46

Gold

DEC ’23 1948.8 2.6

  • Corn is trading unchanged to slightly lower this morning as it remains rangebound. December corn has managed to stay just above its 2023 low of 4.73-1/2.

  • Crop progress will be released this afternoon and trade is expecting another 1-2 point drop in good to excellent ratings due to the hot and dry conditions.

  • The USDA has pegged this year’s corn crop at a near record 15.134 billion bushels based on a yield of 173.8 bpa, but that may end up being too high.

  • Friday’s CFTC data showed funds increasing their net short position by 40,996 contracts leaving them net short 134,909 contracts.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning along with soybean oil while soybean meal trades higher. Soybeans are beginning to feel some harvest pressure.

  • Good to excellent ratings for the soybean crop are also expected to decline later today and could make the already small projected crop of 4.146 bb smaller.

  • The NOPA crush report for August showed a smaller crush than was anticipated and pressured prices but crush margins are still profitable right now.

  • Friday’s CFTC data showed funds selling 8,995 contracts of soybean which reduced their net long position to 73,815 contracts.

  • All three wheat products are trading lower this morning with the most losses in KC wheat. French milling wheat fell by 1.6% overnight which pressured US wheat.

  • Two cargo ships arrived in Ukraine over the weekend with the intent to export wheat along the western coast of the Black Sea despite the end of the grain deal.

  • The southwestern Plains received needed rains over the weekend, but more will be needed as planting starts to pick up for the winter wheat crop.

  • Friday’s CFTC data showed funds increasing their net short position by 5,458 contracts leaving them short 84,139 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Grain Market Insider: September 15, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 1:45 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Spillover weakness from the soybeans and early harvest pressure weighed on the corn market, which closed in negative territory despite the friendly rally in wheat.

  • Poor August crush numbers pressured the soybean market following the release of the NOPA Crush report. The numbers not only came in well below trade estimates, but below last month’s and last year’s totals as well.

  • Soybean meal was a follower of soybeans in today’s session, while bean oil got a boost from higher palm oil and an August stocks number that came in well below expectations from the NOPA report.

  • Short covering ahead of the weekend on the possibility of further Black Sea escalations and continued southern hemisphere production concerns gave all three classes of the wheat market strength to trade higher through the day and close on the positive side of unchanged.

  • To see the current U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast, and 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks courtesy of the NWS and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 corn. Volatility has been a dominant feature this growing season with slow demand and increased planted acres, followed by hot and dry growing conditions that rallied prices nearly 140 cents and back down again. With the growing season mostly behind us, we are at the time of year when market lows are often made, and while the market may continue to recede into harvest, it is still subject to unforeseen influences that could move prices higher. For now, after locking in gains from the previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until after harvest when markets tend to strengthen before considering suggesting any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

  • Despite a friendly turn higher in the wheat market, strong selling pressure in soybeans and likely early harvest pressure limited the corn market on the day. Dec corn lost 4 1/4 cents on the session and was down 7 1/2 cents for the week.

  • Cash basis levels will likely be under pressure as corn harvest begins.  Corn harvest was 5% complete last week and will likely see good progress again this week. Weather forecasts overall are likely to support an ongoing harvest.

  • The corn market is still in a sideways to lower and overall consolidating type trade.  $4.80-$4.85 remains a strong level of resistance over the Dec contract, with support off Tuesday’s low of $4.73 1/2 as the market moves deeper into harvest.

  • Ethanol margins have remained strong, with softening corn prices, and crude oil pushing through $90 a barrel. Ethanol production will likely stay supportive in the market. 

  • Demand will stay a focus in the market as export demand is still soft. Current total sales commitments for the marketing year are at 439 mb, down 9% from last year’s levels, while the USDA is forecasting an increase in export sales.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August. Two bearish reversals have been posted, one on 8/21 and another on 8/29, and the market continues to be under their influence, though trade has primarily been sideways. Above the market, resistance remains between 495 – 516, and below the market, support may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions and export sales. While export sales have improved, growing conditions have continued to be variable and questions remain regarding what final yields will be, keeping prices supported. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop.  Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for the 2024 crop, though it may not be until after harvest or toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

  • Soybeans ended the day lower with a loss of 22-3/4 cents for the week in the November contract following lackluster August soybean crush numbers. Soybean meal ended lower, while soybean oil ended higher with help from gains in palm oil.

  • The August NOPA Crush report was released and showed 161.453 mb crushed, well below estimates of 167.8 mb. This crush number was well below last month’s 173.3 mb, but ahead of last year. Soybean oil stocks came in at 1.250 bp, which was below estimates of 1.527 bp.

  • This week, soybeans were pressured by a reduction in usage on the WASDE report, although ending stocks were called at 220 mb, a very tight number that may only be offset by the expectations for another massive Brazilian crop.

  • U.S. drought exposure for both corn and soybeans increased as of September 12, with soybean crops in drought rising by 5% and reaching 48%. This could cause another decline in soybean’s good to excellent ratings in Monday’s Crop Progress report.

Above: Since the end of August, November soybeans have drifted lower and posted a bullish reversal from support near 1330 on September 13. If prices continue higher, initial resistance could be found near the 50-day moving average, with further resistance remaining between 1400 – 1410. Below the market, support may be found near 1330 and again around 1300.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • El Nino, according to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center, has a 95% chance of continuing through the end of March. Typically, this weather pattern brings drought to areas like India and Australia, but rains to Brazil and Argentina.

  • Argentina’s recent rains led to a 6% increase in their crop condition, but still only climbed to a low 24% good to excellent. Despite the El Nino pattern, October looks mostly dry for that region, but globally, drought is expanding in areas like Australia, which could affect their wheat production.

  • Stats Canada said that due to drought, Canadian all wheat production will decline to 29.8 mmt versus 34 mmt last year. That represents a 13% year on year reduction as yields are anticipated to be down 17.6%.

  • Ukraine is asking Poland not to impose a new grain import ban. Poland has stated that they will implement a ban if the EU ends their current restrictions. Also, while the Black Sea Grain Initiative remains closed for now, one ship has left the Odessa port, traveling via a different route.

  • As of September 12, the USDA estimates about 59% of the U.S. spring wheat production area remains in drought.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2023 Soft Red Winter wheat crop. The wheat market has been very volatile in recent weeks following corn on weather, and headlines regarding Russia and Ukraine. Harvest is now behind us, and while war continues in the Black Sea, and weather continues to be variable, demand remains weak with cheap Black Sea supplies continuing to undercut U.S. offers. Of course, changing headlines can still jolt the market higher, prices have retraced into nearby resistance, and Insider recommends taking advantage of this rally to make an additional sale on your 2023 crop.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Although the Chicago wheat market recently broke out of the lower end of its trading range, it is also showing signs of being oversold, which can be supportive with the recent bullish key reversal that was posted following the USDA’s recent update. Currently, upside resistance remains between 590 and 615, with further resistance around 645 – 665. Below the market, the next level of support lies between 570 and the December 2020 low of 565.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 750 – 800 before considering any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Following the USDA update on September 12, the December contract posted a bullish key reversal, where the market made a new low for the move, yet closed higher. If prices continue higher, resistance above the market remains near 770 – 780. Otherwise, support below the market rests near the September 12 low of 709, and again near the September ’21 low of 670.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices begin to improve, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: On September 5, the December contract posted a bullish reversal from oversold conditions, and while the market retreated, the reversal was not negated. Currently, nearby resistance remains near 785 – 795 and again around 810 – 820. Otherwise, the next support level below the market is near the Sept. 5 low of 756-3/4, and then near the June ’21 low of 730.

Other Charts / Weather

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Midday Update: September 15, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
DEC ’23 477 -3.5
MAR ’24 491.25 -3.25
DEC ’24 507.25 -2.25
Soybeans
NOV ’23 1346.75 -13.75
JAN ’24 1362 -13.75
NOV ’24 1288.25 -13
Chicago Wheat
DEC ’23 602.75 9
MAR ’24 628.75 8.5
JUL ’24 650.25 6
K.C. Wheat
DEC ’23 745 8.5
MAR ’24 748.25 7
JUL ’24 733.5 5.25
Mpls Wheat
DEC ’23 786 2.5
MAR ’24 801.5 1.5
SEP ’24 806 -2.25
S&P 500
DEC ’23 4511 -44
Crude Oil
NOV ’23 89.93 0.32
Gold
DEC ’23 1950.1 17.3

  • Midwest weather looks mostly dry over the weekend with some shower activity in the forecast next week. Elsewhere, western Argentina is still dry, along with northern and central Brazil. This is despite the El Nino pattern, which usually brings a wetter pattern to South America.

  • There are rumors of Ukraine selling corn to China, however, this has not yet been confirmed.

  • There are some signs that China’s economy may be stabilizing, but Europe is still a concern as their economy still appears to be slowing.

  • Corn futures remain in a relatively narrow trading range as the trade waits for more news before pushing in one direction or the other. So far, December corn has held support around 473.

  • The U.S. soybean export commitment remains down 34% from last year.

  • Brazilian farmers are able to legally begin planting crops this weekend. There is some talk that soil may be too dry in Mato Grosso, however, it might be too wet in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul. Current projections for overall South American soybean production are expected to increase 30 mmt (given good weather).

  • NOPA crush data will be released this morning. The estimate for August crush is expected to come in around 168 to 169 mb.

  • Palm oil remains a drag on soybean oil. For the second consecutive week, palm oil posted losses and inventory is at a seven month high at 2.12 mmt.

  • Russia is exporting a record 5 mmt of wheat per month. The question is, will they be able to maintain that record pace? They continue to be the world’s cheapest origin and there are some private estimates suggesting their production could exceed 90 mmt.

  • Weather concerns for Argentina could mean more wheat production cuts in that region, as dry weather continues to cause issues. Recent rains resulted in Argentina’s crop condition improving by 6%, but only to 24% good to excellent. Additionally, October looks to remain mostly dry there.

  • As El Nino strengthens, Australian drought conditions are expanding. Like Argentina, Australia looks to remain largely dry through October and this could affect their wheat production too.

  • According to Stats Canada, their all wheat production estimate declined to 29.8 mmt versus 34 mmt last year due to drought. That is a 13% reduction year on year, with yields expected to be down 17.6% due to drought.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: September 15, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 480 -0.5
MAR ’24 494.25 -0.25
DEC ’24 509 -0.5

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1356.75 -3.75
JAN ’24 1372.5 -3.25
NOV ’24 1297 -4.25

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 595.5 1.75
MAR ’24 622 1.75
JUL ’24 644.5 0.25

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 734.75 -1.75
MAR ’24 740 -1.25
JUL ’24 726.25 -2

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 783 -0.5
MAR ’24 799 -1
SEP ’24 806 -2.25

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4560 5

Crude Oil

NOV ’23 90.06 0.45

Gold

DEC ’23 1939.8 7

  • Corn is trading unchanged to slightly lower this morning as it stays in its trading range with both bull and bear arguments keeping prices gridlocked.

  •  Corn is set to fall about three cents on the week following the USDA’s fairly bearish report which saw an increase in planted acres.

  • The El Nino pattern has a 95% chance of lasting in the Northern Hemisphere from January through March and could bring drought to India and Australia but more rain to Brazil and Argentina.

  • In Argentina, the 23/24 corn planting area is held at 7.3 million hectares and planting is 2.2% complete.

  • Soybean are trading lower this morning and are on track for a slight loss on the week with lower soybean meal and slightly higher soybean oil.

  • With the US carryout now at a very tight 220 mb and yields seemingly shrinking, focus will be on the upcoming planting progress report for South America.

  • US August soybean crush was seen at 168.7 mb which would be 1.9% higher than the previous year but down 2.7% from a month ago.

  • US drought exposure for both corn and soybeans increased as of September 12 with soybean crops in drought rising by 5% and reaching 48%.

  • Wheat is slightly mixed this morning with Chicago wheat slightly higher but KC and Minn slightly lower. Overall price action in the grain complex is quiet.

  • The Argentinian wheat crop improved following much needed rains and is now rated 24% good to excellent vs 18% last week.

  • A new ship has left the Ukrainian port of Odesa after Russia backed out of the deal in July. This is the fifth ship to leave after the end of the deal.

  • Ukraine’s grain harvest has advanced 13.5% from last year and is now at 29.5 mmt with wheat accounting for 22.15 mmt of that number, up 15.4% from last year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Grain Market Insider: September 14, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 1:45 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Caught between unimpressive export sales and strong ethanol demand, the corn market traded on both sides of unchanged before settling in the red, and a little over 2 cents off the lows.

  • Solid gains in soybean meal lent support to the soybean market, which recovered from early losses and traded higher throughout the day on follow through technical buying from Wednesday’s bullish reversal.

  • Strong meal export sales that were above expectations boosted the soybean meal market, which reversed Wednesday’s losses. While soybean oil garnered underlying support from strong energy and palm oil markets, it closed unchanged to slightly higher following choppy trade.

  • While weekly wheat export sales for last week came in as expected, the fact that year to date commitments are 19% behind last year’s totals, versus the USDA’s forecast of an 8% decrease for the same period, likely added pressure to the wheat market as all three classes finished the day in the red.

  • To see the current U.S. Drought Monitor and the weekly Class Change Map, courtesy of the CPC and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 corn. Volatility has been a dominant feature this growing season with slow demand and increased planted acres, followed by hot and dry growing conditions that rallied prices nearly 140 cents and back down again. With the growing season mostly behind us, we are at the time of year when market lows are often made, and while the market may continue to recede into harvest, it is still subject to unforeseen influences that could move prices higher. For now, after locking in gains from the previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until after harvest when markets tend to strengthen before considering suggesting any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

  • Today was an overall quiet trading session as corn futures were choppy before settling lower on the day. Dec corn slipped 1 ¾ cents on the close. Sept corn futures finished its contract life today, closing at $4.62 ½.

  • Weekly export sales are still lackluster overall. Last week, U.S. exporters sold 29.7 mb of corn for the 2023-24 marketing year. Current total sales commitments are at 439 mb, down 9% from last year’s levels, while the USDA is forecasting an export sale increase for the marketing year.

  • Ethanol margins have remained strong, and last week’s ethanol grind was supportive of prices. Ethanol production jumped to 1.039 million barrels/day last week, above expectations and up 8% from YA. Corn consumed was nearly 104 mil. bu in the production process, above the pace needed to reach the USDA 2023/24 usage estimate of 5.30 bil. bu.

  • Cash basis levels will likely be under pressure as corn harvest begins. Weather forecasts overall are likely to support an ongoing harvest.

  • The corn market is still in a sideways and overall consolidating-type trade. $4.85 remains a strong level of resistance over the Dec contract, as the market ticks time moving closer to harvest.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August. Two bearish reversals have been posted, one on 8/21 and another on 8/29, and the market continues to be under their influence, though trade has primarily been sideways. Above the market, resistance remains between 495 – 516, and below the market, support may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions and export sales. While export sales have improved, growing conditions have continued to be variable and questions remain regarding what final yields will be, keeping prices supported. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop.  Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for the 2024 crop, though it may not be until after harvest or toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

  • Soybeans ended the day higher, marking the second consecutive higher close following Tuesday’s WASDE report, and have regained nearly 2/3 of the losses over the two days. Soybean meal ended the day higher with more substantial gains than bean oil, which closed unchanged to only slightly higher.

  • Export sales were decent with the USDA reporting an increase of 25.9 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24 with increases primarily for unknown destinations, China, and Japan. Export shipments of 15.0 mb were below the 35.1 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate.

  • Palm oil futures rallied for the second day as India’s edible oils imports rose by 5.5% in August to a record large 1.85 mmt. There were large increases in imports of palm oil and soybean oil, which have been supportive to futures.

  • The average trade guess for Friday’s August U.S. NOPA soybean crush is 167.802 mb. If realized, the August crush would be down 3.2% from the July crush, but up 1.4% from the previous year.

Above: Since the end of August, November soybeans have drifted lower and posted a bullish reversal from support near 1330 on September 13. If prices continue higher, initial resistance could be found near the 50-day moving average, with further resistance remaining between 1400 – 1410. Below the market, support may be found near 1330 and again around 1300.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The USDA reported an increase of 16.1 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24. Shipments last week of 15.1 mb were above the 14.4 mb pace needed per week to meet the USDA’s 700 mb export forecast.

  • Despite a second consecutive higher close for Paris milling wheat futures, it was not enough to support the U.S. wheat markets, with all three classes posting losses. A lack of fresh bullish news and slow year to date sales may have contributed to today’s weakness.

  • According to the Rosario Exchange, Argentina’s wheat crop production is now estimated at 15 mmt versus its last estimate of 15.6 mmt, due to dryness.

  • Despite that the USDA cut some other global production in Tuesday’s WASDE report, they left Russia’s wheat crop at 85 mmt. However, several private estimates are projecting a larger crop, with Sov Econ estimating Russian wheat production at 92 mmt.

  • Strategie Grains reduced their estimate of EU wheat exports to 30.1 mmt from 30.8 mmt previously. However, they did slightly raise soft wheat production to 125 mmt versus 124.7 mmt last month.

  • Next week, a meetings will take place between officials from the UN, Turkey, Russia, and Ukrainian President Zelensky. The talks will center around the Black Sea grain deal and possibly coming to a resolution in terms of getting the corridor re-opened.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been largely rangebound, influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the rearview mirror, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward the 600 level before considering any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Although the Chicago wheat market recently broke out of the lower end of its trading range, it is also showing signs of being oversold, which can be supportive with the recent bullish key reversal that was posted following the USDA’s recent update. Currently, upside resistance remains between 590 and 615, with further resistance around 645 – 665. Below the market, the next level of support lies between 570 and the December 2020 low of 565.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 750 – 800 before considering any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Following the USDA update on September 12, the December contract posted a bullish key reversal, where the market made a new low for the move, yet closed higher. If prices continue higher, resistance above the market remains near 772 – 780.  Otherwise, support below the market rests near the Sept. 12 low of 709, and again near the Sept. ’21 low of 670.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices begin to improve, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: On September 5, the December contract posted a bullish reversal from oversold conditions, and while the market retreated, the reversal was not negated. Currently, nearby resistance remains near 785 – 795 and again around 810 – 820. Otherwise, the next support level below the market is near the Sept. 5 low of 756-3/4, and then near the June ’21 low of 730.

Other Charts / Weather

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Midday Update: September 14, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
DEC ’23 483 0.75
MAR ’24 497 0.75
DEC ’24 510.75 0.75
Soybeans
NOV ’23 1359 9.25
JAN ’24 1373.75 7.5
NOV ’24 1295 2
Chicago Wheat
DEC ’23 592.75 -4.5
MAR ’24 619.75 -3.75
JUL ’24 644.25 -3.25
K.C. Wheat
DEC ’23 733.25 -11.5
MAR ’24 737.75 -10.25
JUL ’24 730.25 -3.5
Mpls Wheat
DEC ’23 781.75 -5.75
MAR ’24 798.25 -5.25
SEP ’24 808.25 7.25
S&P 500
DEC ’23 4549 31.5
Crude Oil
NOV ’23 89.47 1.59
Gold
DEC ’23 1931.8 -0.7

  • The USDA reported an increase of 29.7 mb of corn export sales for 23/24, and an increase of 1.0 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week of 28.6 mb were below the 40.2 mb pace needed to meet the USDA’s export goal of 2.050 bb.

  • Ethanol grind should be off to a good start this year. Production increased to 1.039 million barrels per day and stocks fell to 21.171 million barrels, the lowest since December 2021.

  • The Midwest looks to be dry through the weekend, with chances for showers next week and temperatures above normal.

  • December corn may remain rangebound for now. The 2.2 bb carryout may lead to resistance around $5.00, but logistic issues in South America and Ukraine may keep support around the $4.70 area.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 25.9 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24. Shipments last week of 15.0 mb were below the 35.1 mb pace needed to meet the USDA’s export goal of 1.790 bb.

  • Northern and central Brazil, as wll as western Argentina, remain dry. Continued dryness could potentially lead to a shift of some corn acres to soybeans.

  • NOPA crush data will be released tomorrow. Expectations are for 168 mb vs 165 mb at this time last year.

  • Early yield reports for soybeans in the western Midwest are quite variable. Given the spotty rains many have experienced this season, it is not necessarily a surprise. However, these anecdotal results may indicate the potential for further yield reductions.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 16.1 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24. Shipments last week of 15.1 mb were above the 14.4 mb pace needed to meet the USDA’s export goal of 700 mb.

  • The Rosario Exchange announced that the Argentina wheat crop may be closer to 15 mmt versus the previous estimate of 15.6 mmt. For reference, last year’s production was 16.5 mmt.

  • Paris milling wheat futures are higher for the second day in a row and may have found a near term bottom. This may provide some support to the U.S. markets as well.

  • The USDA is still estimating Russia’s wheat crop at 85 mmt. However, some analysts have a higher projection. For example, Sov Econ is using a 92 mmt number.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: September 14, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 481 -1.25
MAR ’24 495 -1.25
DEC ’24 508.5 -1.5

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1353.25 3.5
JAN ’24 1369 2.75
NOV ’24 1292 -1

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 592.25 -5
MAR ’24 619.75 -3.75
JUL ’24 644.25 -3.25

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 739 -5.75
MAR ’24 743 -5
JUL ’24 729 -4.75

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 784.5 -3
MAR ’24 800.75 -2.75
SEP ’24 808.25 7.25

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4537.25 19.75

Crude Oil

NOV ’23 89.07 1.19

Gold

DEC ’23 1929.8 -2.7

  • Corn is trading slightly lower this morning and is still just 8 cents from the yearly lows following Tuesday’s bearish USDA report.

  • Ethanol stocks fell by 2.1% to 21.171m bbl while analysts were expecting 21.485, and plant production was 1.039m b/d vs survey averages of 1.015m.

  • The USDA’s Ukrainian corn and wheat production was seen increasing by 2 mmt and it is believed some of that grain is being exported via the Danube River and by rail into Europe.

  • Corn export sales today are not expected to be large, but sales will need to average 7.4 mb per week higher than a year ago to hit the new crop USDA export estimate.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning helped along by higher soybean meal while soybean oil trades lower. Soybeans have been relatively rangebound for the past month.

  • August NOPA soybean crush in the US is seen at 167.802 mb. If realized, the August crush would be down 3.2% from the July crush but up 1.4% from the previous year.

  • Export sales are expected to be modest today between 40 and 50 mb. This comes after the USDA lowered soybean exports in Tuesday’s WASDE.

  • India’s August vegetable oil imports rose to 1.87 mmt from 1.77 mmt in July which should be friendly to soybean oil and other veg oils.

  • After two days of higher closes, wheat is beginning the day lower as speculators look to sell rallies.

  • The Argentinian wheat crop estimates were but by 0.6 mmt for 23/24 due to dryness and is now seen at 15 mmt. Argentina is not the only country dealing with wheat production issues.

  • The USDA dropped world wheat ending stocks in the Tuesday report but Russia’s crop seems to keep growing and they continue selling wheat cheaper than other offers.

  • The UN secretary will discuss the Black Sea grain deal with Ukraine, Turkey, and Russia next week, but it seems unlikely that Russia will change its stance.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Grain Market Insider: September 13, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 1:45 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Carryover strength from a firmer wheat market and some short covering supported the corn market as it not only settled higher on the day, but also within a ½ cent of the day’s highs.

  • Strength from a sharply higher soybean oil market helped November soybeans close 16 cents off its low and higher on the day, while follow through technical selling from yesterday’s lower close weighed on soybean meal.

  • Despite lower crude oil prices, higher palm, and heating oil (diesel fuel) lent support to the soybean oil market, as U.S. fuel distillate stocks for August fell 16% below the 10-year average.

  • Black Sea escalation, and the lower than expected USDA Global wheat stocks estimate, continued to support all three wheat classes, which closed higher on follow through buying and short covering from yesterday’s bullish reversals.

  • The U.S. dollar has been consolidating the last few sessions with little movement up or down ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Long-term, the market may be friendly to the dollar as the U.S. economy is viewed as being in better shape than its European counterparts, and this could add resistance to the commodity markets.

  • To see the current U.S. 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of the NWS and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 corn. Volatility has been a dominant feature this growing season with slow demand and increased planted acres, followed by hot and dry growing conditions that rallied prices nearly 140 cents and back down again. With the growing season mostly behind us, we are at the time of year when market lows are often made, and while the market may continue to recede into harvest, it is still subject to unforeseen influences that could move prices higher. For now, after locking in gains from the previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until after harvest when markets tend to strengthen before considering suggesting any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

  • Corn futures saw some short covering after bouncing off the low on Tuesday following the USDA report. Buying strength in the wheat market supported corn futures on the session as December corn added 5 ¾ cents.

  • Tuesday’s USDA report failed to provide any true positive news as the addition of nearly 800,000 corn acres kept the balance sheet heavy for corn, limiting any price rally. Even with a forecasted lower yield, carry out projections of 2.221 billion bushels for the marketing year were above expectations.

  • Cash basis levels will likely be under pressure as corn harvest begins. Harvest was 5% complete last week, and weather forecasts overall are likely to support an ongoing harvest.

  • Price action was firm on Wednesday, and that could trigger additional buying strength and short covering. Strong resistance at $4.85 over the December contract could limit buying strength.

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales on Thursday morning. Marketing year sales are disappointing, which has limited the upside in the market, and expectation are for last week’s export sales totals to stay soft overall.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August. Two bearish reversals have been posted, one on 8/21 and another on 8/29, and the market continues to be under their influence, though trade has primarily been sideways. Above the market, resistance remains between 495 – 516, and below the market, support may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions and export sales. While export sales have improved, growing conditions have continued to be variable and questions remain regarding what final yields will be, keeping prices supported. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop.  Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for the 2024 crop, though it may not be until after harvest or toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

  • Soybeans ended the day higher after a rocky lower start, and yesterday’s selloff following the USDA report. Soybean meal ended lower, but soybean oil was able to gain some traction and closed 3% higher in the October contract.

  • Yesterday’s WASDE report was not particularly bearish, but elicited a negative market reaction as trade was possibly expecting friendlier numbers. Final production was pegged at 4.146 bb compared to 4.205 bb in August, while the new crop carryout was called at 220 mb, which was 7 mb higher than the Dow Jones average trade guess. World ending stocks were increased slightly, which added pressure.

  • Chinese imports were raised to a record large 102 mmt for old crop and 100 mmt for new crop, which has shown up in more active export sales in the U.S. While the Chinese economy may be sluggish, their demand for Ag products has remained firm.

  • Brazil’s total soy exports are expected to reach 99 mmt in 2023, up significantly from a month ago, and soymeal exports are expected to reach 2.16 mmt in September versus 2.06 mmt the previous week. 

Above: After filling in the chart gap that was left between 1390-1/2 and 1394-3/4, the market has drifted lower in conjunction with stochastic indicators crossing over in overbought conditions indicating a possible downward market reversal. For now, if prices continue to slide lower, the market may find support near 1330 and again around 1300. If prices regain upward momentum, initial resistance will be in the 1400 – 1410 area.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • After yesterday’s report, wheat may be finding support at these lower levels, with a positive close in all three U.S. futures classes, as well as Paris milling wheat futures.

  • Ukrainian attacks on the Sebastopol port in Crimea, which is controlled by Russia, lent support to wheat today. The war premium may be acting as a catalyst for short covering by the funds, who still hold a large speculative net short position. Additionally, yesterday’s USDA data showed a large 7 mmt reduction in global production as well, which is likely adding fuel to the fire.

  • This Friday, September 15, the current EU ban on Ukraine grain imports will expire. Several European nations including Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, Bulgaria, and Poland have indicated that they will issue their own bans if the EU does not extend theirs. The concern of these nations is that a flood of Ukrainian supply could cause their domestic prices to fall. Currently, grain is allowed to flow through these countries on its way to other destinations; at this time, it is not known how that flow of grain may be impacted by any new bans.

  • According to the European Commission, EU soft wheat exports since July 1 have reached 5.84 mmt as of September 8, and represents a 27% decline from 8.02 mmt in the same timeframe last year. Also, while Ukraine’s July 1 – September 13 grain exports were down overall, wheat exports totaling 2.5 mmt, were up 36.5% year on year.

  • December Chicago wheat stochastics are showing a crossover signal in oversold territory, indicating a potential buying opportunity. Additionally, when looking at historical patterns, wheat tends to establish a seasonal low around this time frame.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been largely rangebound, influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the rearview mirror, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward the 600 level before considering any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Although the Chicago wheat market recently broke out of the lower end of its trading range, it is also showing signs of being oversold, which can be supportive with the recent bullish key reversal that was posted following the USDA’s recent update. If prices can continue higher, initial resistance may come in between 590 and 615, with further resistance around 645 – 665.  Below the market, the next level of support lies between 570 and the December 2020 low of 565.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 750 – 800 before considering any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Following the USDA update on September 12, the December contract posted a bullish key reversal, where the market made a new low for the move, yet closed higher. If prices continue higher, resistance above the market remains near 772 – 780.  Otherwise, support below the market rests near the Sept. 12 low of 709, and again near the Sept. ’21 low of 670.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices begin to improve, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: On September 5, the December contract posted a bullish reversal from oversold conditions, and while the market retreated, the reversal was not negated. If prices continue to the upside, nearby resistance could be found near 785 – 795 and again around 810 – 820. Otherwise, the next support level below the market is near the Sept. 5 low of 756-3/4, and then near the June ’21 low of 730.

Other Charts / Weather

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Midday Update: September 13, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
DEC ’23 479.75 3.25
MAR ’24 494 3
DEC ’24 507 1.5
Soybeans
NOV ’23 1340 -6.5
JAN ’24 1356.25 -6
NOV ’24 1285.75 -3.5
Chicago Wheat
DEC ’23 598.25 10.75
MAR ’24 624.5 10.5
JUL ’24 649 9
K.C. Wheat
DEC ’23 743.25 12.5
MAR ’24 746.75 12.25
JUL ’24 732.25 11.5
Mpls Wheat
DEC ’23 785.25 6.25
MAR ’24 801.25 6
SEP ’24 800 -1
S&P 500
DEC ’23 4522 8.25
Crude Oil
NOV ’23 88.28 0.12
Gold
DEC ’23 1934.5 -0.6

  • Yesterday’s data indicated corn acres up 800,000, which was more than expected. So, despite a reduction in yield, total production was slightly increased.

  • December corn saw a low yesterday of 473-1/2 – this is equal to the low on August 16th. If corn can hold above this low, it may indicate that a bottom is in (at least in the near-term). However, breaking below this support level could lead to more downside.

  • Drought around the Panama Canal has reduced water levels and is cause for shipping concerns into the end of the year.   

  • The next big day for the market (in terms of data) will be the quarterly grain stocks report on September 29th.

  • Soybeans had a negative reaction to yesterday’s report. While there were no significant surprises, fresh bullish news may have been what was needed to see a rally.

  • Assuming normal weather, the USDA is forecasting South American soybean production to rise by 30 mmt in 23/24.

  • Global vegetable oil markets are beginning to see a turnaround with higher palm and canola oil. This is helping soybean oil to rally this morning.

  • November soybeans have broken below the 13.50 support area, with the next support at the 200 day moving average, around 13.30.

  • In yesterday’s report, the USDA lowered wheat production in Australia, Canada, the EU, and Argentina.

  • News outlets are reporting that overnight Ukraine attacked the Russian port of Sebastopol in Crimea. This increase in tensions will likely add further support for wheat.

  • Managed funds held a large net short wheat position into yesterday’s report. Given the reduction in the global production estimate by 7 mmt, and the news out of Crimea, the market may be seeing some short covering in wheat this morning.

  • Hungary, along with Romania, Slovakia, and Bulgaria, has indicated that they will implement bans on the importation of Ukrainian grain, if the EU does not extend the current ban that expires at the end of this week.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: September 13, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 479.75 3.25
MAR ’24 493.5 2.5
DEC ’24 507.5 2

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1343.75 -2.75
JAN ’24 1359.75 -2.5
NOV ’24 1288 -1.25

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 596.75 9.25
MAR ’24 622.5 8.5
JUL ’24 648.75 8.75

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 739 8.25
MAR ’24 743.25 8.75
JUL ’24 729.5 8.75

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 785.25 6.25
MAR ’24 800.5 5.25
SEP ’24 801 8.25

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4506.75 -7

Crude Oil

NOV ’23 88.74 0.58

Gold

DEC ’23 1933.8 -1.3

  • Corn is trading higher this morning after a lower close yesterday caused by a slightly bearish WASDE report.

  • Yesterday’s report featured a decline in yields as expected, but pressure came from an increase in acreage that was larger than trade expectations.

  • The hot and dry conditions are pushing the crop towards an early harvest, and because of this, ear weights would be expected to come up short.

  • Ethanol production is being estimated slightly higher than last week at 1.015 m b/d with stockpile estimates seen at 21.485 m bbl vs 21.621 a week ago.

  • Soybeans are unchanged to lower this morning after a selloff caused by yesterday’s USDA report. Soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is higher.

  • The reaction to yesterday’s report was a bit of a headscratcher considering that yields were dropped and ending stocks were lowered to an extremely tight 220 mb, the lowest ending stocks in 8 years.

  • Bearish notes came from a decline in crush by 10 mb which is interesting considering crush demand has been strong, and a decline of 35 mb in exports which is likely reasonable with Brazil’s crop.

  • Brazil’s total soy exports are expected to reach 99 mmt in 2023, up significantly from a month ago, and soymeal exports are expected to reach 2.16 mmt in September vs 2.06 mmt the previous week. 

  • Wheat is trading higher this morning after a higher close yesterday reversing off of contract lows and hopefully finding a bottom.

  • World wheat production estimates fell by 6 mmt yesterday as many countries struggle with poor weather conditions impacting crops which could be causing large speculators to short cover.

  • Ukraine has said that Russian drones attacked areas south of the Odesa region near the Izmail port on the Danube River overnight, and seven people were injured.

  • Also overnight, Russia has said that Ukraine attacked the Sevastopol Shipyard in Crimea causing a fire and wounding at least 24 people.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.