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Grain Market Insider: September 26, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The lack of any follow-through flash sales and a rise in harvest activity added resistance to the corn market as it continues to trade sideways with traders squaring positions ahead of Friday’s USDA quarterly Grain Stocks report.

  • A decrease in the crop’s good to excellent ratings and strength from both soybean meal and oil helped to bolster the soybean market that experienced choppy trade on both sides of unchanged before settling just 5 cents off the day’s high in a nearly 19 cent range.

  • Choppy trade dominated the wheat complex as traders continue to square positions ahead of Friday’s quarterly Grain Stocks report, with Chicago finishing the strongest of the three classes and the only one higher on the day, while K.C. and Minneapolis both closed in the red, but with minor losses.

  • The US dollar climbed to a fresh 10-month high, and likely added some resistance to commodities, with continued hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve as the primary influence for the strength. 

  • To see the current US, 7-day Precipitation Forecast, and the 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks courtesy of the NWS and Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 corn. The 2023 growing season has been marked with many challenges that whipsawed the market up and down in a 140-cent range. And while we are at the time of year when lows are often made, the market is still subject to many unforeseen influences that can move prices higher, like in 2020 when the market went on to test contract highs and beyond after hitting market lows before harvest. For now, after locking in gains from previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until later in the year (when markets tend to strengthen) before considering suggesting any additional sales. Insider is also monitoring the market for any re-ownership opportunities, should it experience an extended rally.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

  • Corn futures saw a two-sided trade before settling lower. Dec corn lost 1 ½ cents on the session as the market maintains its sideways to slightly higher trade going into Friday’s quarterly Grain Stocks report.

  • Corn harvest continues to ramp up with early yield results being extremely variable based on the weather for the past growing season. Corn harvest was 15% complete last week as reported on the weekly Crop Progress report. This total is 2% above the 5-year average but was just slightly below analysts’ expectations.

  • Corn maturity stays well ahead of pace as 70% of the crop was rated to mature last week, 10% higher than the 5-year average of 60%. The high level of maturity should keep crop harvest available to producers.

  • USDA will release the quarterly Grain Stocks report on Friday. While there is variability in corn usage for this report, expectations are for overall grain stocks to be slightly higher than last year’s totals for this report.

  • With strong ethanol margins, and some signs of improved export demand, the market is building some optimism that demand could improve going into the harvest window.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, and it continues to be under the influence of two bearish reversals, one posted on 8/21 and the other on 8/29. Above the market, resistance remains between 495 – 516, and below the market, support may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Corn percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions, and export sales. While export demand currently lags last year’s numbers, ending stocks are also currently estimated at a tight 220 million bushels. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks. 

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop.  Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for the 2024 crop, though it may not be until after harvest or toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

  • Soybeans ended the day higher after trading mostly lower for much of the day, with both soybean meal and soybean oil ending higher as well. While the November contract reached the 100-day moving average, it was unable to close above it.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed a decline in good to excellent ratings by 2 points to 50%, and 12% of the crop was reportedly harvested compared to 5% a week ago and the trade estimate of 14%. Southern states are harvesting more rapidly with Louisiana 79% complete, and Mississippi 61% done. Some analysts are expecting yields to come in below USDA expectations and closer to 49 bpa.

  • Brazilian soybean planting is 1.9% complete as of September 21, but weather conditions have been very hot and dry in the central and northern regions. That weather pattern is expected to change by the end of this week to offer more rain.

  • Outside markets are mixed with stocks lower and energies higher, as another government shutdown looms, though the Senate is working on a short-term funding bill that would keep a shutdown from occurring for another 4-6 weeks.

Above: While the soybean market recently broke through the 1300 level of support, it continues to show signs of being oversold, which can be supportive. Currently, the next level of support lies near the May 31 low of 1270, with initial resistance above the market may be found near 1325 and again near the 50-day moving average.

Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • According to the USDA, spring wheat harvest is 96% complete as of Sunday September 24. Additionally, winter wheat plantings are said to be 26% complete, just below the 29% average.

  • A third ship is said to have left the Chornomorsk port in Ukraine, traveling via their own “humanitarian corridor.” These vessels are taking on the risk of Russian attack, with new reports of a strike against grain facilities in Ismail, an export area along the Danube River.

  • Canadian 23/24 wheat production is estimated to fall 13% to 29.8 mmt, according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. That represents a 3.4 mmt decline from the August report.  

  • According to their agriculture ministry, Ukraine has planted a total of 2.2 million hectares of winter crops, with 1.02 million of that being wheat. For wheat that represents a 64% increase year on year. However, there is some concern about drought affecting their winter crops, with little to no rain in the region for the past 30-40 days.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market in recent weeks has been sensitive to slow export demand, weather, and headlines regarding the Black Sea region. Now with harvest behind us, and new crop planting upon us, markets can still change suddenly due to El Nino and unforeseen geopolitical events, even though export demand remains weak. Following the recent recommendation to make an additional sale for the 2023 crop, Insider will continue to watch for any violations of support while also looking for prices to reach 650 – 700 before suggesting any further sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Following the USDA’s 9/12 update, the market posted a bullish reversal and traded into the 590 – 615 resistance area. If the market breaks through to the upside, further resistance could be found between 645 – 665. Otherwise, if the market turns lower, the next level of support lies between 570 and the December 2020 low of 565.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 750 – 800 before considering any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Since the beginning of September, the market has drifted sideways to lower. While the DEC contract posted a new low of 703, it has yet to close below the Sept. 12 low of 709. Currently, support remains between 709 and 703, with the next level of support below the market near 670. If prices turn higher, initial resistance above the market is near 750, with further resistance remaining between 770 – 780.

Winter wheat percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices begin to improve, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: On September 5, the December contract posted a bullish reversal from oversold conditions, and while the market initially retreated, the reversal was not negated. Currently, nearby resistance remains near 785 – 795 and again around 810 – 820. The next support level below the market remains near the September 5 low of 756-3/4, and then near the June ’21 low of 730.

Spring wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Other Charts / Weather

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Midday Update: September 26, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
DEC ’23 479.5 -1.75
MAR ’24 494.25 -1.5
DEC ’24 508.75 -0.75
Soybeans
NOV ’23 1295 -2.75
JAN ’24 1313.5 -2
NOV ’24 1260.75 -1
Chicago Wheat
DEC ’23 589.25 0.25
MAR ’24 616.5 1
JUL ’24 644.5 1.75
K.C. Wheat
DEC ’23 712.25 -2.25
MAR ’24 719.5 -1.75
JUL ’24 713.5 -1
Mpls Wheat
DEC ’23 769 0
MAR ’24 785.75 0
SEP ’24 800 4.25
S&P 500
DEC ’23 4329 -49.75
Crude Oil
NOV ’23 90.38 0.7
Gold
DEC ’23 1921.9 -14.7

  • Corn crop ratings improved 2% to 53% good to excellent. Expectations were for steady conditions to maybe a slight decline. Additionally, harvest has reached 15% complete, which is above both last year and the average.

  • Scattered showers in the Great Lakes region and eastern Corn Belt over the next few days will cause some harvest delays. But most of the Corn Belt should see harvest progress with good weather over the next week or so.

  • In South America, there is divergence between the two main weather models. The European model has better chances for rain in central Brazil, but the American model is still dry.

  • The US sold 65.2 mb of corn to Mexico, with 41.3 mb of that total for the 23/24 season.

  • Soybean crop ratings fell 2% to 50% good to excellent, which was in line with expectations. Additionally, harvest has advanced to 12% complete, also in line with expectations.

  • Overnight November soybeans rallied back above the 100-day moving average but have since faded and are trading lower this morning.

  • Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower at midday, offering no support to soybean futures.

  • According to Ag Rural, as of September 21, Brazil’s soybean planting is 1.9% complete versus 1.5% at the same time last year.

  • According to the USDA, spring wheat harvest is now 96% complete, and winter wheat planting is 26% done, which is slightly below the average of 29%.

  • Russia continues to export wheat at historically low prices, which has been keeping pressure on the wheat market. This is despite the threat of lower production in Canada, Australia, Argentina, and Europe.

  • It was announced that a third vessel has left Ukraine’s Chornomorsk port, attempting to travel via the humanitarian corridor. However, threats from Russia remain a concern with new Russian attacks on grain facilities in Izmail (an export area on the Danube River).

  • Aside from issues caused by war, Ukraine has had little rain for the past 30-40 days and this drought may take a toll on their winter wheat.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: September 26, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 481.5 0.25
MAR ’24 495.5 -0.25
DEC ’24 509.75 0.25

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1304.75 7
JAN ’24 1322.25 6.75
NOV ’24 1263.5 1.75

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 593 4
MAR ’24 619.25 3.75
JUL ’24 648 5.25

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 715.25 0.75
MAR ’24 722.25 1
JUL ’24 721.5 7

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 771.75 2.75
MAR ’24 792.25 6.5
SEP ’24 800 4.25

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4359.25 -19.5

Crude Oil

NOV ’23 89.05 -0.63

Gold

DEC ’23 1931.2 -5.4

  • Corn is trading unchanged to slightly lower after yesterday’s small gains. In December, the low of 5.73-1/2 was tested but held.

  • There was a large sale reported yesterday to Mexico of 41.3 mb for 23/24 and 24.1 mb for 24/25 which provided support to the market.

  • Yesterday’s crop progress report showed the corn harvest at 15% complete compared to 9% a week ago and the 5-year average at 13%.

  • 95% of the corn crop is dented and 70% is mature compared to 54% last week. Good to excellent ratings actually rose by 2 points to 53%.

  • Soybeans are continuing to move higher after yesterday’s gains and are about two cents from climbing back above the 100-day moving average. Soybean meal is higher while soybean oil is lower in the front months but higher in deferred contracts.

  • Yesterday’s crop progress report showed that 12% of soybeans are harvested compared to 5% last week, and compared to the 5-year average of 11%.

  • 73% of the soy crop is dropping leaves compared to 54% last week, and good to excellent ratings fell from the previous week by 2 points down to 50%.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections report came in at 17.7 mb which was higher than a week ago but still a small number which shows that Brazil has maintained the competitive advantage for exports.

  • Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago and KC moving higher, but KC unchanged to lower. Yesterday, some support came from weekend attacks on Ukrainian ports by Russia.

  • Yesterday’s crop progress showed that 96% of the spring wheat crop has been harvested compared to 93% last week, and winter wheat 26% planted compared to 15% last week. 7% of the winter wheat crop has emerged.

  • The Canadian wheat crop is now seen at 29.8 mmt which is a decline of 13% from the previous season and 3.4 mb from the August report.

  • Ukraine’s winter wheat and rapeseed planting is well ahead of  2022 with 2.2 m hectares expected to be planted compared with 1.67 last year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Grain Market Insider: September 25, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Short covering and a flash sale to Mexico for 1.661 mmt (65.5 mb) of corn, helped get the ball rolling in the right direction for the corn market, which settled near the day’s highs after trading 3 ½ cents lower in the overnight session.

  • After opening the evening session in the red and trading 12 cents lower. Soybeans rallied back to close near the highs of the day, in part from higher meal and neighboring grain prices, despite sharply lower soybean oil.

  • While soybean meal finished the day higher, soybean oil lost over 3% on the day and closed below the Aug. ’23 low as losses in heating oil (diesel fuel) added pressure to the market. Today’s weakness in bean oil also weighed heavily on Board crush margins which settled 16-1/4 cents lower in the December contracts.

  • A managed fund short position of nearly 125k contracts in wheat likely spurred short covering and position squaring ahead of Friday’s quarterly Grain Stocks report and led the Chicago and K.C. contracts to a higher close while Minneapolis finished mixed.

  • The grain complex largely shook off the negative influence of the US dollar, as it traded to its highest level since last November, primarily influenced by the Fed’s hawkish comments that interest rates will stay higher for a longer period of time than anticipated.

  • To see the current US, Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks courtesy of the NWS and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 corn. Volatility has been a dominant feature this growing season with slow demand and increased planted acres, followed by hot and dry growing conditions that rallied prices nearly 140 cents and back down again. With the growing season mostly behind us, we are at the time of year when market lows are often made, and while the market may continue to recede into harvest, it is still subject to unforeseen influences that could move prices higher. For now, after locking in gains from the previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until after harvest when markets tend to strengthen before considering suggesting any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

  • Corn futures battle off session lows to close higher on the day. December corn gained 4 cents on the session as bull spreading (buying the front month versus selling the deferred) and short covering supported the market.

  • On Friday’s Commitment of Traders Report, managed money was holding a net short position of nearly 145,000 contracts. This was one of the largest short positions in the last handful of years.

  • Export demand is a concern, but Mexico stepped into the market with an announcement of a large flash sale. USDA announced that Mexico bought 1.661 mmt (65.4 mb) of US corn. Of that total, 1.049 mmt (41.3 MB) was for the current marketing year with the rest for 2024-25.

  • Corn harvest continues to ramp up with early yield results being extremely variable based on the weather for the past growing season. Harvest pressure will likely affect the cash basis. Corn harvest was 9% complete last week. Analysts are looking for the crop to be 17% harvested in this week’s crop progress report.

  • Weekly Corn Exports inspections are improving, totaling 26 mb for the week ending Thursday, September 21, 2023. Total inspections in 2023-24 are now at 77 mb, up 16% from last year at this time frame. USDA is estimating corn exports at 2.050 bb in 2023-24, up 23% from the previous year. The total overall pace of corn exports is still lacking the pace for USDA targets.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, and it continues to be under the influence of two bearish reversals, one posted on 8/21 and the other on 8/29. Above the market, resistance remains between 495 – 516, and below the market, support may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Sept. 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 9,906 contracts between Sept. 13 – 19, bringing their total position to a net short 144,815 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions, and export sales. While export demand currently lags last year’s numbers, ending stocks are also currently estimated at a tight 220 million bushels. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks. 

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop.  Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for the 2024 crop, though it may not be until after harvest or toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

  • Soybeans ended the day higher after rebounding from lows earlier in the day. Soybean meal ended higher, while soybean oil traded lower near support at the 200-day moving average. Soybeans are under pressure from the start of US harvest and the new Brazilian supplies.

  • The Crop Progress report will be released later this afternoon, and expectations are that 10 to 12% of the crop will be reported as harvested with conditions expected to remain unchanged at 52% good to excellent. Weather is expected to be mostly dry apart from the eastern Corn Belt, which should speed up harvest.

  • In Brazil, conditions remain very dry in central and northern Brazil with above average temperatures where soybeans were recently planted, but there have been indications that the country’s wet season could begin by the end of the week. In the US, dry conditions have some analysts convinced that yields could come in closer to 49 bpa.

  • Crude oil has rallied by 30% since the end of June which has made biodiesel production more profitable. Crush margins have been significantly more attractive to processors lately as soybeans have lost more value than soy products.

Above: While the soybean market recently broke through the 1300 level of support, it continues to show signs of being oversold, which can be supportive. Currently, the next level of support lies near the May 31 low of 1270, with initial resistance above the market may be found near 1325 and again near the 50-day moving average.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Sept. 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 27,983 contracts between Sept. 13 – 19, bringing their total position to a net long 45,832 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Weekly wheat inspections at 16.6 mb were decent and brought the total 23/24 inspections to 207 mb. However, inspections are still running behind the pace needed to meet the 700 mb export goal.

  • According to the CFTC’s Commitments of Traders report on Friday, funds were net short about 97,000 contracts of Chicago wheat as of September 19. Factoring in all three futures classes brings that short position to about 125,000 contracts.

  • This Friday traders will receive the quarterly Grain Stocks report, as well as the small grains summary report. With funds holding such a large short position, the wheat market could be primed for a short covering rally if those reports are friendly.

  • Globally, weather is a concern for the wheat market, especially in Australia. With their drought expected to get worse, some analysts are forecasting their wheat exports to drop as low as 17 mmt as compared to the record 32.5 mmt last year.

  • Ukraine’s agriculture ministry said that grain exports between September 1 and 24 totaled just 1.57 mmt. That corresponds to a 51% decrease from a year’s 3.21 mmt.  While they gave no official explanation, many believe that blocked or damaged ports, and Russian attacks on the Danube River terminals are to blame.

  • According to India’s food secretary, their nation does not have a shortage of wheat, but may sell from their reserves to control domestic prices. This is despite curbing exports and the fact that as of September 24, India’s monsoon rains are 6% below normal.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market in recent weeks has been sensitive to slow export demand, weather, and headlines regarding the Black Sea region. Now with harvest behind us, and new crop planting upon us, markets can still change suddenly due to El Nino and unforeseen geopolitical events, even though export demand remains weak. Following the recent recommendation to make an additional sale for the 2023 crop, Insider will continue to watch for any violations of support while also looking for prices to reach 650 – 700 before suggesting any further sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Following the USDA’s 9/12 update, the market posted a bullish reversal and traded into the 590 – 615 resistance area. If the market breaks through to the upside, further resistance could be found between 645 – 665. Otherwise, if the market turns lower, the next level of support lies between 570 and the December 2020 low of 565.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Sept. 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 12,666 contracts between Sept. 13 – 19, bringing their total position to a net short 96,805 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 750 – 800 before considering any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Following the USDA update on September 12, the December contract posted a bullish key reversal, where the market made a new low for the move, yet closed higher. If prices continue higher, resistance above the market remains near 770 – 780. Otherwise, support below the market rests near the September 12 low of 709, and again near the September ’21 low of 670.

K.C. Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Sept. 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 818 contracts between Sept. 13 – 19, bringing their total position to a net short 12,330 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices begin to improve, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: On September 5, the December contract posted a bullish reversal from oversold conditions, and while the market initially retreated, the reversal was not negated. Currently, nearby resistance remains near 785 – 795 and again around 810 – 820. The next support level below the market remains near the September 5 low of 756-3/4, and then near the June ’21 low of 730.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Sept. 19. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 1,816 contracts between Sept. 13 – 19, bringing their total position to a net short 15,177 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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Midday Update: September 25, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
DEC ’23 474.5 -2.75
MAR ’24 489.5 -2.75
DEC ’24 504.25 -2.75
Soybeans
NOV ’23 1290.75 -5.5
JAN ’24 1308.75 -4.75
NOV ’24 1256 -0.75
Chicago Wheat
DEC ’23 582 2.5
MAR ’24 608.75 2.25
JUL ’24 636.25 2.75
K.C. Wheat
DEC ’23 709 -2.25
MAR ’24 716.25 -2.25
JUL ’24 709.25 -2
Mpls Wheat
DEC ’23 765.25 -5.25
MAR ’24 783.5 -3.75
SEP ’24 795.5 5.75
S&P 500
DEC ’23 4368.5 7.5
Crude Oil
NOV ’23 89.34 -0.69
Gold
DEC ’23 1937.3 -8.3

  • Harvest continues to keep pressure on the grain markets. Rains over the weekend that ran across the western Midwest caused some delays, but the East was mostly dry allowing harvest to advance.

  • Globally, central and northern Brazil remain dry, along with western Argentina. In addition, Australia, southern Russia, and Ukraine are also dry. 

  • On Friday, the USDA will release the quarterly Grain Stocks and small grain summary reports. With corn having been in a sideways trading range, this could be the next big “data” day with the potential to move the market.

  • According to the CFTC, Friday’s Commitments of Traders report showed that funds added to short positions in corn and wheat. They are now net short about 145,000 corn contracts.

  • Last week, November soybeans broke support and are still trading below the 100-day moving average. However, they are very oversold by some technical metrics, including stochastics. This could indicate a bottom is near, however, a commodity can become and remain oversold for a long time in a strong downtrend.

  • China last week purchased some soybeans from Brazil, Argentina, in addition to 1-2 cargos from the US PNW for October.

  • Chinese Dalian soybean futures were lower, but soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil were higher on hopes of increased Asian demand.

  • According to the CFTC, managed funds reduced their long position in soybeans to 46,000 contracts (a 28,000-contract reduction).

  • Despite new rumblings in the Black Sea, wheat traders are not enthused enough to stimulate much buying interest. On Friday Ukraine attacked Sevastopol, a port in Crimea, and Russia again attacked Odessa overnight.

  • According to the CFTC, managed funds are now net short about 125,000 contracts of wheat (all three classes), with about 97,000 of that being Chicago wheat.

  • Australia’s drought is expected to worsen, and their wheat exports could drop to 17 mmt. For reference, last year’s exports were a record 32.5 mmt.

  • December KC wheat is testing the 7.00 support area today. Despite some global weather concerns, Russia continues to pressure the wheat market, with some analysts predicting their September exports will be record large.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: September 25, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 476.25 -1
MAR ’24 491.25 -1
DEC ’24 505 -2

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1294.75 -1.5
JAN ’24 1312 -1.5
NOV ’24 1257.75 1

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 581.25 1.75
MAR ’24 608 1.5
JUL ’24 634.75 1.25

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 710.25 -1
MAR ’24 717.25 -1.25
JUL ’24 709.75 -1.5

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 769.5 -1
MAR ’24 786.5 -0.75
SEP ’24 795.5 5.75

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4357.75 -3.25

Crude Oil

NOV ’23 90.14 0.11

Gold

DEC ’23 1944.2 -1.4

  • Corn is unchanged to slightly lower to begin the week on little fresh news and the ongoing harvest. Corn remains rangebound.

  • Today’s crop progress will likely show a solid advancement in harvest, but there is rain forecast in the eastern Corn Belt which could slow things down.

  • In Brazil, the second crop corn harvest is in full swing, but sales have been on the low end as many purchasers already have large inventories.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials continuing to sell corn by 9,906 contracts increasing their net short position to 144,815 contracts.

  • Soybeans are trading slightly lower this morning while soybean meal trades higher but soybean oil lower. The gains in crude oil have begun to level off around the 90 dollar a barrel level.

  • With harvest set to begin in the US and prices depressed, the same has started to spill over in Brazil, and prices in the spot market there have fallen over the past few days.

  • The USDA has forecast that US ending stocks will come in around 220 mb although many think it will be tighter than that, but traders are more focused on the combination of Brazilian and US harvest.

  • Last week’s CFTC report showed non-commercials selling 27,983 contracts reducing their net long position to 45,832 contracts.

  • Chicago wheat is trading higher this morning but KC and Minn wheat are mostly unchanged, hovering above recent lows.

  • There was more fighting between Russia and Ukraine over the weekend with Ukraine saying Russian drones damaged another grain storage facility near Odesa.

  • India has said that it sees no wheat shortage and may increase sales to control prices. Previously, India curbed exports to manage food inflation which was up 9.9% from the previous year.

  • Last week’s CFTC report showed funds tacking further onto their short position selling 12,666 contracts and increasing the net short position to 96,805 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Grain Market Insider: September 22, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures recovered from Thursday’s sell off managing to close a penny higher on the week, concerns over slow exports continue to plague corn as harvest continues to ramp up.

  • Soybeans were slightly higher to end the week, the trade awaits harvest reports as combines have just started rolling across the Midwest.

  • Soybean meal futures were weaker while front month soybean oil found support at the 200-day moving average and followed soybeans and crude oil higher to end the week.

  • All three wheats closed higher to end the week but remain near recent lows and under pressure from a continued strong US Dollar.

  • To see the current US 7-day precipitation forecast, and 8 – 14-day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks courtesy of the NWS and NOAA, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 corn. Volatility has been a dominant feature this growing season with slow demand and increased planted acres, followed by hot and dry growing conditions that rallied prices nearly 140 cents and back down again. With the growing season mostly behind us, we are at the time of year when market lows are often made, and while the market may continue to recede into harvest, it is still subject to unforeseen influences that could move prices higher. For now, after locking in gains from the previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until after harvest when markets tend to strengthen before considering suggesting any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

  • The corn market saw some price recovery after Thursday’s risk off trade. December corn gained 2 cents on the session but found enough strength to turn 1 cent higher for the week, closing 9 ½ cents off the contract low from Tuesday morning.

  • Corn harvest continues to ramp up with early yield results being extremely variable based on the weather for the past growing season. Harvest pressure will likely affect the cash basis. Corn harvest was 9% complete last week and has advanced this week, despite some areas receiving rain. 

  • Concerns regarding barge traffic on the Mississippi River due to low water levels will limit the corn market and likely pressure basis. Grain barge traffic on the Mississippi River last week was down 38% year-over-year and 76% below the 3-year average. 

  • Corn demand will stay a focus in the weeks ahead. Ethanol margins are good, but higher gas prices could limit ethanol demand. Current corn export sales commitments for the marketing year are at 462 mb, which is down 6% year-over-year. The USDA is forecasting a 23% rise in US corn exports for the marketing year.

  • Corn futures are trying to carve out a bottom, and overall price action was improved this week.  The corn market will need additional short covering and follow through next week to mark a possible turn higher in the near term.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, and it continues to be under the influence of two bearish reversals, one posted on 8/21 and the other on 8/29. Above the market, resistance remains between 495 – 516, and below the market, support may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions, and export sales. While export demand currently lags last year’s numbers, ending stocks are also currently estimated at a tight 220 million bushels. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks. 

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop.  Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for the 2024 crop, though it may not be until after harvest or toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

  • Soybeans ended the day slightly higher but backed off from higher gains earlier in the day. Soybean meal started the day higher but ended lower, and soybean oil ended higher. Trade is quiet to lower with harvest beginning.

  • Argentina plans to plant the same number of acres this season as last but is anticipating a much higher production as drought should not be as much a factor this season. Brazil’s crop is forecast to grow significantly to 162.4 mmt, which is much bigger than the previous record crop.

  • Basis is expected to erode further into harvest as low water levels on the Mississippi River once again affect barge traffic. Heavy rains are expected from the northwestern Plains through Texas and Arkansas over the week which could help improve water levels.

  • There were no soybean sales reported today, and yesterday’s export sales report was far below expectations, but there were large soybean meal sales recorded with some being record large. It seems that the US is picking up some soymeal business from Argentina after the drought cut their production.

Above: While the soybean market recently broke through the 1300 level of support, it continues to show signs of being oversold, which can be supportive. Currently, the next level of support lies near the May 31 low of 1270, with initial resistance above the market may be found near 1325 and again near the 50-day moving average.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat stopped the bleeding today with a positive close, however, it still remains near contract lows as exports weigh on the market. Additionally, the fact that the Federal Reserve may issue interest rate increases for a longer timeframe pressured commodities yesterday, and may continue to do so in the near future.

  • News outlets have reported that another vessel has left Ukraine and is destined for Egypt, carrying 18,000 tons of wheat. Additionally, three new vessels are headed for Ukrainian ports to be loaded with grain and iron ore that will be shipped to China and Egypt.

  • The International Grains Council increased their estimates of world wheat and corn stocks. According to the IGC, the 23/24 stockpiles are projected at 588 mmt of grain, with 263 mmt of that being wheat. That is a 2 mmt increase in the wheat estimate; the decline in production may be offset by less demand.

  • Ukraine’s grain harvest is now 14% complete, totaling 29.8 mmt so far. That total includes 22.19 mmt of wheat (which is up 16% year on year).

  • Due to falling water levels, barge traffic on the Mississippi River is decreasing, while shipping rates are on the rise. According to the USDA, total shipments have declined to 130k tons of grain through September 16th. This compares to 173k tons the previous week. This is also a concern for the availability and cost of fertilizer for those areas that rely on river shipments.

  • According to the USDA, as of September 19th, about 59% of the US spring wheat production area remains in drought conditions. Additionally, 47% of the winter wheat area is also in drought.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market in recent weeks has been sensitive to slow export demand, weather, and headlines regarding the Black Sea region. Now with harvest behind us, and new crop planting upon us, markets can still change suddenly due to El Nino and unforeseen geopolitical events, even though export demand remains weak. Following the recent recommendation to make an additional sale for the 2023 crop, Insider will continue to watch for any violations of support while also looking for prices to reach 650 – 700 before suggesting any further sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Following the USDA’s 9/12 update, the market posted a bullish reversal and traded into the 590 – 615 resistance area. If the market breaks through to the upside, further resistance could be found between 645 – 665. Otherwise, if the market turns lower, the next level of support lies between 570 and the December 2020 low of 565.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 750 – 800 before considering any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Following the USDA update on September 12, the December contract posted a bullish key reversal, where the market made a new low for the move, yet closed higher. If prices continue higher, resistance above the market remains near 770 – 780. Otherwise, support below the market rests near the September 12 low of 709, and again near the September ’21 low of 670.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices begin to improve, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: On September 5, the December contract posted a bullish reversal from oversold conditions, and while the market initially retreated, the reversal was not negated. Currently, nearby resistance remains near 785 – 795 and again around 810 – 820. The next support level below the market remains near the September 5 low of 756-3/4, and then near the June ’21 low of 730.

Other Charts / Weather

US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center

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Midday Update: September 22, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
DEC ’23 475.75 0.5
MAR ’24 490.75 0.75
DEC ’24 505 0
Soybeans
NOV ’23 1300.75 7
JAN ’24 1317.25 6.5
NOV ’24 1256 2
Chicago Wheat
DEC ’23 579.25 3.5
MAR ’24 606 3.75
JUL ’24 632.25 3.5
K.C. Wheat
DEC ’23 716.25 5.75
MAR ’24 723 6
JUL ’24 714.25 5
Mpls Wheat
DEC ’23 774 6.5
MAR ’24 790.75 7
SEP ’24 792.5 2.75
S&P 500
DEC ’23 4391.5 19.5
Crude Oil
NOV ’23 90.38 0.75
Gold
DEC ’23 1947.6 8

  • Corn began the day higher but has slipped and is now trading relatively unchanged. Grains are having trouble moving higher as harvest begins.

  • This week’s Federal Reserve announcement that rates would remain high has caused the dollar to rally which makes US exports less competitive with the rest of the world.

  • Last week’s ethanol production fell by a much-larger-than-expected 6% to 980,000 barrels per day, and ethanol stocks also had a gain of 2.4%.

  • CONAB estimated Brazilian corn production lower after reducing acres and it is now seen at 119.8 mmt which is down from the USDA’s estimate of 129.0 mmt.

  • Soybeans are trading higher but have slipped a bit from the earlier morning highs. The November contract is attempting to break back above the 100-day moving average. Soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is higher.

  • In Brazil, weather in central and northern Brazil are too hot and dry, but next week rains are expected to materialize which would help the recently planted soy crop. Estimates for next year’s production are at 163 mmt.

  • Argentina’s soybean planting is set to cover 39.54 million acres, the same as last year, but another severe drought is not expected, so a much larger crop than last year is expected.

  • Basis is expected to erode further into harvest as low water levels on the Mississippi River once again affect barge traffic. Heavy rains are expected from the northwestern Plains through Texas and Arkansas over the week which could help improve water levels.

  • Wheat is trading higher today but is still near contract lows as pressure comes from a new high in the US dollar index which makes wheat exports less competitive.

  • Russia has decided to stick to the $270/mt price floor proposed by the government which has given Romania, Bulgaria, and France to begin selling wheat below Russian offers.

  • A second grain ship carrying 18,000 tons of wheat has left the Ukrainian Black Sea port for Egypt, and three more cargo ships are heading to the port to pick up grain bound for China.

  • In Australia, the drought caused by El Nino conditions is expanding, and the wheat crop is set to fall significantly by 36% from a year ago.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: September 22, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn
DEC ’23 474.5 -0.75
MAR ’24 489.5 -0.5
DEC ’24 504.25 -0.75
Soybeans
NOV ’23 1299.25 5.5
JAN ’24 1316 5.25
NOV ’24 1257.75 3.75
Chicago Wheat
DEC ’23 576 0.25
MAR ’24 602.25 0
JUL ’24 628.5 -0.25
K.C. Wheat
DEC ’23 713 2.5
MAR ’24 721 4
JUL ’24 712.5 3.25
Mpls Wheat
DEC ’23 770 2.5
MAR ’24 787.5 3.75
SEP ’24 789.75 -14
S&P 500
DEC ’23 4379.5 7.5
Crude Oil
NOV ’23 90.53 0.9
Gold
DEC ’23 1945.5 5.9

  • Corn is slightly higher this morning following yesterday’s selloff in the grains, but trade remains tightly rangebound.

  • Weather models are showing showers in the western and southern Plains as well as Illinois, and heavy rains are expected to fall in the Dakotas through Oklahoma next week.

  • After some early dryness in Brazil, rains are expected to begin falling next week which could be a start to their rainy season and could be favorable for planting.

  • CONAB estimated Brazilian corn production lower after reducing acres and it is now seen at 119.8 mmt which is down from the USDA’s estimate of 129.0 mmt.

  • Soybeans are trading higher after yesterday’s selloff and the Nov contract is trying to get back above that 100-day moving average. Both soybean meal and oil are higher this morning.

  • Argentina’s soybean planting is set to cover 39.54 million acres, the same as last year, but another severe drought is not expected, so a much larger crop than last year is expected.

  •  US incentives to boost consumption of more environmentally friendly fuel has created a new market for used Chinese cooking oil, worth almost $390 million in the last 12 months.

  • US soybeans in drought conditions have increased by 5 points as of September 19 and now reach 53%. 

  • All three wheat products are trading higher this morning following yesterday’s selloff.

  • Yesterday, the entire grain complex was lower and this was likely a result of the Fed’s decision to keep rates higher for longer than expected which caused the dollar to rally which makes US exports less competitive.

  • A second grain ship carrying 18,000 tons of wheat has left the Ukrainian Black Sea port for Egypt, and three more cargo ships are heading to the port to pick up grain bound for China.

  • Ukraine’s grain harvest has advanced 14% from last year and 22.19 mmt of wheat have been harvested, up 16% year over year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

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Grain Market Insider: September 21, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Disappointing export sales, and expectations of higher interest rates for a longer period of time, as indicated by Federal Reserve comments yesterday, brought a pall over the markets with a “risk off” sentiment that sent the corn market lower alongside neighboring soybeans and wheat.

  • Poor weekly export sales helped drive the soybean market sharply lower as the November contract broke through its 100-day moving average to close below 1300 for the first time since late June.

  • Both soybean meal and oil were followers of soybeans to the downside as December Board Crush margins firmed a penny on the break. While meal sales for last week came in at the upper end of expectations, soybean oil sales came in as expected.  

  • Weak export sales and shipments that fell below the pace needed to reach the USDA’s goals added to the weakness in today’s wheat markets that were already feeling the strain of the higher US Dollar and interest rates, as all three classes of wheat closed lower led by the K.C. contracts.

  • As of this writing, the US Dollar index has posted a bearish reversal in today’s trade after reaching its highest level in 6 months. If it follows through to the downside, US commodities may find some relief in the export market.

  • To see the current US Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks for October, courtesy of the Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to the other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 corn. Volatility has been a dominant feature this growing season with slow demand and increased planted acres, followed by hot and dry growing conditions that rallied prices nearly 140 cents and back down again. With the growing season mostly behind us, we are at the time of year when market lows are often made, and while the market may continue to recede into harvest, it is still subject to unforeseen influences that could move prices higher. For now, after locking in gains from the previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until after harvest when markets tend to strengthen before considering suggesting any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

  • Risk off trade on Thursday as the market saw fallout from the Fed’s commentary regarding holding a longer-term view of a high-interest rate environment. This brought selling across most equity and agriculture markets on the day. December corn gave back Wednesday’s gains, losing 7 cents on the session.

  • Weekly export sales for corn are still disappointing. Last week totaled new sales of 567,000 MT (22.3 mb). Current corn sales commitments for the marketing year are down 6% from last year, and the USDA is forecasting a gain in potential exports.

  • The USDA announced a flash export sale of corn overnight. Mexico bought 137,160 MT of corn, split at 121,920 MT for the 2023-24 marketing year and 15,240 MT for the 2024-25 marketing year. The total was 5.4 mb.

  • The International Grain Council (IGC) raised its yearly global corn stocks forecast. The IGC is forecasting global carryover stocks at 289 mmt, up 14 mmt from last year’s estimates, reflecting the increase in projected global production.

  • Corn harvest continues to ramp up, with early yield results being extremely variable based on the weather for the past growing season. Harvest pressure will likely affect the cash basis.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, and it continues to be under the influence of two bearish reversals, one posted on 8/21 and the other on 8/29. Above the market, resistance remains between 495 – 516, and below the market, support may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions, and export sales. While export demand currently lags last year’s numbers, ending stocks are also currently estimated at a tight 220 million bushels. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks. 

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop.  Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for the 2024 crop, though it may not be until after harvest or toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply lower, and below its 100-day moving average, following a poor export sales report for last week, anticipation of a large Brazilian crop next season, and harvest pressure within the US. Both soy products closed lower today as well. 

  • For the week ending September 14, 2023, the USDA reported an increase of 16 mb of soybean export sales in 23/24, which came in below the low end of the estimate range. Last week’s export shipments of 20.0 mb were below the 34.8 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates and were primarily to China, Japan, and Mexico.

  • Basis is expected to erode further into harvest as low water levels on the Mississippi River once again affect barge traffic. Heavy rains are expected from the northwestern Plains through Texas and Arkansas over the week which could help improve water levels.

  • While Brazil increased their estimated planted area of soybeans by 2.8% and are now expecting a new record crop of 162.4 mmt, there is an El Nino pattern developing which is already causing some dry weather in areas where soybeans were just planted. This dry weather could continue through the growing season.

Above: While the soybean market recently broke through the 1300 level of support, it continues to show signs of being oversold, which can be supportive. Currently, the next level of support lies near the May 31 low of 1270, with initial resistance above the market may be found near 1325 and again near the 50-day moving average.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The markets took a risk off posture today with lower closes in grains, livestock, some soft commodities, and, as of writing, crude oil is still positive but is about a dollar off the daily high. The negative tone today appears to be spurred on in part by yesterday’s Fed meeting in which they indicated that interest rates down the road would continue to increase.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 11.3 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 0.5 mb for 24/25. Each week 14 mb needs to be shipped to reach the USDA’s goal of 700 mb of exports, but last week’s shipments were only 10.9 mb.

  • The US Dollar Index made a new near-term high today and is hitting levels not seen since March. While it is overbought and may be due for a correction downward, it has been inching higher since mid-July, keeping constant pressure on the export market.

  • According to Sov Econ, their estimate of 2023 Russian wheat production was reduced to 91.6 mmt, versus 92.1 mmt, due to expectations for a reduced Siberian crop.

  • Ukraine’s Ag minister talked with the Polish Ag minister to discuss a resolution to the grain dispute between the two nations. Poland has banned imports from Ukraine to protect domestic prices, so the goal of the talks is to resolve the dispute on shipments.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market in recent weeks has been sensitive to slow export demand, weather, and headlines regarding the Black Sea region. Now with harvest behind us, and new crop planting upon us, markets can still change suddenly due to El Nino and unforeseen geopolitical events, even though export demand remains weak. Following the recent recommendation to make an additional sale for the 2023 crop, Insider will continue to watch for any violations of support while also looking for prices to reach 650 – 700 before suggesting any further sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Following the USDA’s 9/12 update, the market posted a bullish reversal and traded into the 590 – 615 resistance area. If the market breaks through to the upside, further resistance could be found between 645 – 665. Otherwise, if the market turns lower, the next level of support lies between 570 and the December 2020 low of 565.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 750 – 800 before considering any additional sales.

  • No action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: Following the USDA update on September 12, the December contract posted a bullish key reversal, where the market made a new low for the move, yet closed higher. If prices continue higher, resistance above the market remains near 770 – 780. Otherwise, support below the market rests near the September 12 low of 709, and again near the September ’21 low of 670.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices begin to improve, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Above: On September 5, the December contract posted a bullish reversal from oversold conditions, and while the market initially retreated, the reversal was not negated. Currently, nearby resistance remains near 785 – 795 and again around 810 – 820. The next support level below the market remains near the September 5 low of 756-3/4, and then near the June ’21 low of 730.

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