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7-2 End of Day: Grains Surge on Trade Optimism Ahead of Holiday

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Friday, July 4, in Observance of Independence Day

 

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures posted strong gains Wednesday, supported by short covering and technical buying as traders squared positions ahead of the long weekend.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures closed sharply higher Wednesday, lifted by strong crush data, short covering ahead of the holiday weekend, and trade optimism following President Trump’s announcement of a U.S.-Vietnam deal.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures posted double-digit gains across all classes Wednesday, buoyed by short covering and spillover strength from soybeans amid rumors of renewed Chinese buying interest.

  • To see updated U.S. weather forecasts scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no active targets to report. So far, typical growing season volatility has yet to materialize and generate additional selling opportunities. The next 2–3 weeks will be critical, as the likelihood of weather-driven price spikes tends to drop off significantly after that window.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. The strategy remains ready for weather-related volatility, but so far the markets have yet to experience anything significant enough to trigger action.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures posted strong gains Wednesday, supported by short covering and technical buying as traders squared positions ahead of the long weekend.

  • Weekly ethanol production dipped to 1.076 million barrels per day, down slightly from the prior week, but still enough to keep corn usage on pace to meet USDA’s annual target.

  • U.S. corn is regaining competitiveness on the global market as a weaker dollar and lower prices improve its value relative to South American offers. Brazil’s slower-than-usual harvest is also offering modest support.

  • StoneX raised their production forecast for the Brazil corn crop to 136.1 MMT, up 2.1 MMT from their last forecast.  USDA is still holding a 130 MMT projection.

  • Thursday’s USDA weekly export sales report is expected to show corn sales ranging from 400,000–1.0 MMT (old crop) and 500,000–900,000 MT (new crop), following 1.46 MMT in total sales last week.

Corn Futures Break Lower end of Recent Range
Front-month corn futures struggled throughout June, breaking key support and leaving an unfilled chart gap following the roll to September. That gap near 430 now stands as the first upside target. On the downside, last week’s low of 404 offers initial support, with stronger support seen at 394.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None. No adjustment to the 1107 target, as it remains a feasible objective for this time of year based on historical weather-driven rally patterns.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. Same approach as with 2025 corn and 2024 soybeans — the strategy remains positioned for significant volatility, though nothing substantial has developed yet. The 1114 upside target also remains unchanged, as it continues to be a realistic objective based on historical rally patterns for this time of year.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no posted targets yet.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean futures closed sharply higher Wednesday, lifted by strong crush data, short covering ahead of the holiday weekend, and trade optimism following President Trump’s announcement of a U.S.-Vietnam deal. Soybean meal and oil also posted solid gains.

  • The USDA released its monthly oilseed report which showed soybean crushings for May at 203.7 million bushels. This was up 6.3% from the same period last year and up from the previous month. Crude oil production was 6.5% higher.

  • The new U.S.-Vietnam trade agreement allows U.S. goods to enter Vietnam tariff-free, while Vietnamese goods face a 20% tariff into the U.S. — a potential boost for U.S. ag exports.

  • In India, palm oil imports shot higher by 61% to hit an 11-month high for the month of June because of lower domestic inventories. This is bullish for all veg oils.

Soybeans Retreat from Recent Highs
Soybeans failed to close above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A breakout above 1082 would open the door toward filling the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. Soybean futures found support last week at the 200-day moving average and the bottom end of the recent range near 1030. A break below the 200-day would likely open the door to a test of the April lows near 980.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat posted double digit gains across the board, likely following soybeans higher after rumors that China is looking to buy beans from the U.S. This may have caused some short covering in the grain markets. A weaker U.S. Dollar and earlier USDA cuts to harvested acreage also supported the rally.

  •  Forecasts call for a Canadian storm system next week, but rainfall may be patchy, potentially missing key areas in the southern and eastern Prairies. This dryness could lend support to spring wheat prices.

  • Argentina exported a record 23.5 MMT of grain in June, rushing to beat a tax hike on corn and soybean exports effective July 1. Wheat exports were not subject to the change, which may pressure prices going forward.

  • President Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam Wednesday. While details remain limited, broader trade optimism added support to grain markets.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2027 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
A sharp rally in mid-June was short lived for Chicago wheat futures. Prices have now returned back to the upper end of the range that has held prices for much of 2025. Initial support is at the June low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a test of the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2027 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Struggles Above Major Moving Averages
Strength in June pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness late in June sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat on the Move Higher
Spring wheat futures spent nearly all of June above the upper end of the previous range and above a confluence of major moving averages. The first resistance and upside target would be the June high near 665. Key support now sits at the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that level — and especially beneath the May low of 572.50 — would open the door to further downside risk.

Other Charts / Weather

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7-2 Midday: Soybeans Lead Corn and Wheat Higher at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Friday, July 4, in Observance of Independence Day

 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
SEP ’25 407.75 1.75
DEC ’25 423 1
DEC ’26 459 1.5
Soybeans
AUG ’25 1040 10.25
NOV ’25 1035.75 8.5
NOV ’26 1057.25 3.75
Chicago Wheat
SEP ’25 553.75 4.75
DEC ’25 573.25 4
JUL ’26 605.75 3.25
K.C. Wheat
SEP ’25 535.25 4
DEC ’25 558.75 4
JUL ’26 602.5 5.25
Mpls Wheat
SEP ’25 6.375 0.09
DEC ’25 6.5575 0.09
SEP ’26 6.6775 0
S&P 500
SEP ’25 6259 10.25
Crude Oil
SEP ’25 64.71 0.56
Gold
OCT ’25 3379.6 2.1

  • Corn futures have reversed higher at midday, supported by rising wheat futures and short covering as we drift closer to the July 4th holiday.

  • Weekly ethanol production fell to 316 million gallons, down from 318 million gallons the week prior, but is up 1% from the same period last year. Ethanol stocks were also down to 24.1 million barrels, which was last year’s level of 23.6 million barrels.

  • StoneX has raised their corn production estimate in Brazil to 136.1 mmt, up 2.1 mmt from the groups previous estimate.

  • Soybeans continue to trend higher at midday, supported by the soybean oil market and a recent bill that prohibits the use of biofuels made from materials outside of North America.

  • According to Anec, Brazil’s soy exports are seen reaching 13.93 mmt in June, up from the previous estimate of 13.83 mmt.

  • AmSpec Agri group reported that Malaysia’s palm oil exports increased to 1.29 mmt in June, up 0.6 mmt from May.

  • All three wheat contracts are now higher at midday on short covering and Black Sea war concerns.

  • LSEG has raised their wheat production forecast for Ukraine to 20.7 mmt, up 3% from their previous estimate.

  • Weakness in the dollar is also contributing to the minor rally at midday and could help keep support under prices.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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7-02 Opening Update: Corn and Wheat Lower, Soybeans Higher to Start Day

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’25 405 -1
DEC ’25 420.5 -1.5
DEC ’26 457.25 -0.25

Soybeans

AUG ’25 1038.75 9
NOV ’25 1033.25 6
NOV ’26 1054.5 1

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’25 549.75 0.75
DEC ’25 569.75 0.5
JUL ’26 603 0.5

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’25 532 0.75
DEC ’25 555.25 0.5
JUL ’26 597.5 0.25

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’25 6.3025 0.0175
DEC ’25 6.495 0.0275
SEP ’26 6.6775 0

S&P 500

SEP ’25 6256.5 7.75

Crude Oil

SEP ’25 65.03 0.88

Gold

OCT ’25 3380.8 3.3

  • Corn is trading lower to start the day but remains off yesterday’s contract lows that were made after crop progress results showed another 1 point improvement to crop ratings. Yesterday, September corn found support right at the $4.00 mark.

  • Last week, the European weather model forecasted a hotter and drier July, but so far, the 6-10 day forecast shows above average precipitation for the Corn Belt which is weighing on prices.

  • US corn used for ethanol came in at 449.4 million bushels in May which was up from April but down 1.3% from a year ago at this time.

  • Soybeans are trading higher following bullish crushing numbers and oversold futures yesterday which saw the August contract fall to $10.16-1/4 before recovering, the lowest level since April. Meal is lower while bean oil leads the complex higher.

  • The USDA released its monthly oilseed report which showed soybean crushings for May at 203.7 million bushels. This was up 6.3% from the same period last year and also up from the previous month. Crude oil production was 6.5% higher.

  • In Indian, palm oil imports shot higher by 61% to hit an 11-month high for the month of June as a result of lower domestic inventories. This is bullish for all veg oils.

  • All three wheat classes are trading slightly lower to start the day following yesterday’s rally which brought September Chicago wheat futures back to the 50-day moving average. Trade will look for a close above this level.

  • Monday’s Crop Progress report showed another decline in crop ratings by 1 point which has added some risk premium as funds hold a large net short position, but the ongoing winter wheat harvest has tempered this rally a bit.

  • More rain is expected to fall this week in soft red wheat areas which could delay harvest at times. Europe is currently experiencing a heat wave which could slow harvest there as well.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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7-1 End of Day: Grains Mixed: Corn Pressured by Ratings; Wheat and Soybeans Supported by Policy and Acreage Data

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures closed lower Tuesday, pressured by improved crop ratings and a lack of bullish catalysts. Nearby contracts hit new lows before paring losses, as soybeans and wheat ended higher.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures ended higher Tuesday after a choppy session, supported by strength in soybean oil. Soy oil rallied on news of President Trump’s newly passed bill, which included favorable biodiesel provisions.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed higher across all three classes Tuesday, supported by USDA’s lower harvested acreage estimate — likely reflecting increased abandonment in the Southern Plains — and a weaker U.S. dollar, which hit its lowest level since February 2022.

  • To see updated U.S. weather forecasts scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no active targets to report. So far, typical growing season volatility has yet to materialize and generate additional selling opportunities. The next 2–3 weeks will be critical, as the likelihood of weather-driven price spikes tends to drop off significantly after that window.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. The strategy remains ready for weather-related volatility, but so far the markets have yet to experience anything significant enough to trigger action.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished the day lower on Tuesday as improved crop ratings and bullish news was just lacking in the corn market. Nearby corn future traded to new contracts lows before firming as both soybean and wheat markets finished with gains on the day.

  • Sellers remained in control following Monday’s USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks reports, which offered few surprises. Strong crop ratings and a building global supply outlook continue to weigh on sentiment.

  • The USDA saw a 3% jump in crop ratings in Monday afternoon’s Crop Conditions report to 73% G/E. The market expectation was for unchanged ratings for the week. With the improved crop ratings, market participants are leaning to corn yield to be above trend line yields at this point.

  • The U.S. dollar fell to its lowest level since February 2022, helping keep U.S. corn exports competitive relative to South American supplies.

  • The weather remains friendly for the development of the corn crop. Long range weather models are forecasting a return to a moderate temperature pattern and still above normal rainfall going into the second half of July.

Corn Futures Break Lower end of Recent Range
Front-month corn futures struggled throughout June, breaking key support and leaving an unfilled chart gap following the roll to September. That gap near 430 now stands as the first upside target. On the downside, last week’s low of 404 offers initial support, with stronger support seen at 394.

Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None. No adjustment to the 1107 target, as it remains a feasible objective for this time of year based on historical weather-driven rally patterns.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. Same approach as with 2025 corn and 2024 soybeans — the strategy remains positioned for significant volatility, though nothing substantial has developed yet. The 1114 upside target also remains unchanged, as it continues to be a realistic objective based on historical rally patterns for this time of year.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no posted targets yet.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed higher Tuesday, supported by gains in soybean oil following the passage of President Trump’s new bill, which includes favorable biodiesel provisions. November soybeans found support near $10.15, while soybean meal ended lower, marking new yearly lows.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw soybeans good to excellent ratings unchanged at 66% which compared to 67% a year ago. 94% of the crop is emerged and 3% is setting pods, on par with last year’s pace. Summer weather will be the important factor going forward.

  • Monday’s USDA report was mostly neutral. Soybean acres were pegged at 83.38 million, in line with expectations but well below last year’s 87.05 million. Stocks were slightly bearish at 1.008 billion bushels, up from 970 million last year.

  • Italy announced plans to boost U.S. soybean imports to help address trade imbalances, and India is reportedly nearing a trade agreement with the U.S.

Soybeans Retreat from Recent Highs
Soybeans failed to close above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A breakout above 1082 would open the door toward filling the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. Soybean futures found support last week at the 200-day moving average and the bottom end of the recent range near 1030. A break below the 200-day would likely open the door to a test of the April lows near 980.

Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed higher across all three classes Tuesday, supported by USDA’s lower harvested acreage estimate — likely reflecting increased abandonment in the Southern Plains — and a weaker U.S. dollar, which hit its lowest level since February 2022.

  • USDA crop condition ratings showed winter wheat at 48% good-to-excellent, down 1 point from last week. Harvest progress reached 37%, trailing both last year’s 52% and the five-year average of 42%. Spring wheat was rated 53% G/E, also down 1%, with 96% emerged and 38% headed.

  • Argus Media’s latest estimate pegs Ukrainian 25/26 wheat production at 21.9 mmt, down from 23.7 mmt previously. This would also be down 2.5% from the 24/25 season. The update comes after a virtual crop tour in June.

  • Ukraine finished their export season on June 30, with a total of 40.6 mmt of grain shipments. That is down about 21% from last year’s total. Wheat in particular accounted for 15.7 mmt of exports, which was down 15% year over year.

  • According to an announcement from the Rosario Grain Exchange yesterday, Argentina’s dry and cool weather forecast should boost planting of the 25/26 wheat crop. Additionally, yields are expected to increase due to good soil moisture levels. The RGE expects planted area to reach 7.1 million hectares, up from 6.9 million last season.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2027 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
Initial support is at the June low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a larger move toward the winter high of 621.75.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2027 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Struggles Above Major Moving Averages
Strength in June pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness late in June sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75.

Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holding Above Resistance
Spring wheat futures spent nearly all of June above the upper end of the previous range and above a confluence of major moving averages. Key support now sits at the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that level — and especially beneath the May low of 572.50 — would open the door to further downside risk.

Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

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7-1 Midday: Grains Remain Mixed at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
SEP ’25 406.5 -2.75
DEC ’25 422.5 -3
DEC ’26 456.75 -0.25
Soybeans
AUG ’25 1027.25 -2.5
NOV ’25 1025.25 -1.75
NOV ’26 1052.5 -0.75
Chicago Wheat
SEP ’25 544.5 6.25
DEC ’25 564.75 4.75
JUL ’26 598.25 2
K.C. Wheat
SEP ’25 527.25 0.5
DEC ’25 550.5 0.5
JUL ’26 593.5 0
Mpls Wheat
SEP ’25 6.2 -0.0075
DEC ’25 6.3775 -0.0125
SEP ’26 6.65 0
S&P 500
SEP ’25 6236.5 -17.25
Crude Oil
SEP ’25 63.97 0.12
Gold
OCT ’25 3381.5 46.1

  • Corn prices remain lower at midday, pressured by improving crop conditions and favorable weather conditions.

  • Monday’s Crop Progress report showed crop conditions improving 3% to 73% good-to-excellent.

  • AgRural has raised their corn production estimate for Brazil to 130.6 mmt, up 2.1 mmt from their previous forecast.

  • Soybeans continue to trend weaker at midday on higher soybean stocks and bearish weather forecasts.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean conditions steady at 66% good-to-excellent.

  • The US and Italy are set to form a new task force in order to boost US soybean exports to Italy, Brooke Rollins announced yesterday.

  • Wheat classes are mixed at midday, with Chicago and HRW contracts trading higher at midday, supported by a weaker dollar and lower harvested acres.

  • Winter wheat conditions fell 1% to 48% good-to-excellent while harvest improved from 18% last week to 37% this week.

  • Argus Media estimates that Ukraine wheat production is now seen at 21.9 mmt, down from the groups earlier estimate of 23.7 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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7-01 Opening Update: Corn and Soybeans Lower, Wheat Higher Following Crop Progress

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’25 404.5 -4.75
DEC ’25 420.5 -5
DEC ’26 454.25 -2.75

Soybeans

AUG ’25 1023.75 -6
NOV ’25 1021.5 -5.5
NOV ’26 1049 -4.25

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’25 543.75 5.5
DEC ’25 564.5 4.5
JUL ’26 599 2.75

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’25 529.25 2.5
DEC ’25 553.25 3.25
JUL ’26 592 -1.5

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’25 6.15 -0.0575
DEC ’25 6.35 -0.04
SEP ’26 6.65 0

S&P 500

SEP ’25 6240.5 -13.25

Crude Oil

SEP ’25 64.31 0.46

Gold

OCT ’25 3389.3 53.9

  • Corn is trading lower this morning with the September contract falling down to within just one cent of the contract low after yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed conditions improving. Yesterday’s USDA report was a touch friendly to corn.

  • Yesterday, the USDA said that as of June 29, the corn crop conditions had improved by 3 points to 73% good to excellent. This compares to 67% a year ago at this time. 8% of the corn crop is silking which is behind last year’s pace but ahead of the 5-year average.

  • Yesterday’s USDA report saw corn acres at 95.2 million which was down slightly from 95.3 in March. This is still up significantly from last year’s 90.6 ma. Grain stocks came in at 4.644 bb which was within analyst expectations and down from 4.997 bb a year ago.

  • Soybeans are lower to start the day despite a relatively neutral report yesterday and unchanged crop conditions. With these reports out of the way, trade is likely looking back to weather which does not hold many concerns so far. Soybean meal is lower while bean oil is higher.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw soybeans good to excellent ratings unchanged at 66% which compared to 67% a year ago. 94% of the crop is emerged and 3% is setting pods, on par with last year’s pace.

  • Yesterday’s USDA report showed soybean acres down slightly from the March report at 83.4 million acres, but analysts expected this. It compares to 87.1 ma last year. Grain stocks were 1.008 bb which was slightly above the average trade guess and compared to 970 mb last year.

  • Both Chicago and KC wheat are trading higher while Minneapolis wheat and the rest of the grains trade lower following a bullish Crop Progress Report but uneventful USDA report yesterday.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress showed both winter wheat and Spring wheat lose 1 point to 48% and 53% good to excellent respectively. Spring wheat conditions are down 19 points from this time last year. 37% of the winter wheat crop has been harvested.

  • Yesterday’s acreage report showed wheat acres virtually unchanged at 45.5 ma and down slightly from last year’s 46.1 ma. Grain stocks for wheat came in at 851 mb, slightly above the trade guess, and above last year’s 696 mb. 

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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6-30 End of Day: USDA Data Comes in Near Expectations – Grains End Monday Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended mixed Monday, with weakness in nearby contracts. After a neutral USDA report, market attention returned to weather forecasts.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended mixed Monday, with nearby contracts lower and deferred months higher. USDA reports leaned slightly bearish, but modest acreage keeps upside potential if weather turns adverse.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower across the board Monday, weighed down by neutral-to-bearish USDA report data, a weaker Matif close, and lack of fresh supportive news.

  • To see updated U.S. weather forecasts scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no active targets to report. So far, typical growing season volatility has yet to materialize and generate additional selling opportunities. The next 2–3 weeks will be critical, as the likelihood of weather-driven price spikes tends to drop off significantly after that window.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. The strategy remains ready for weather-related volatility, but so far the markets have yet to experience anything significant enough to trigger action.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended mixed Monday, with weakness in nearby contracts. After a neutral USDA report, market attention returned to weather forecasts.

  • The USDA Acreage report pegged planted corn acres at 95.2 million, slightly below expectations and down 120,000 from March — largely neutral to trade ideas.

  • June 1 Quarterly Grain Stocks came in at 4.644 billion bushels, matching expectations and 350 mb below last year, underscoring strong old-crop demand.

  • Weekly corn export inspections totaled 1.370 MMT (53.9 mb), keeping the pace 29% above last year and ~140 mb ahead of what’s needed to meet USDA’s export target with eight weeks left.

  • The weekly crop conditions report will be released on Monday afternoon. Expectations are for conditions to remain unchanged at 70% G/E — a five-year high for this point in the season.

Corn Futures Break Lower end of Recent Range
Front-month corn futures struggled throughout June, breaking key support and leaving an unfilled chart gap following the roll to September. That gap near 430 now stands as the first upside target. On the downside, last week’s low of 404 offers initial support, with stronger support seen at 394.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None. No adjustment to the 1107 target, as it remains a feasible objective for this time of year based on historical weather-driven rally patterns.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. Same approach as with 2025 corn and 2024 soybeans — the strategy remains positioned for significant volatility, though nothing substantial has developed yet. The 1114 upside target also remains unchanged, as it continues to be a realistic objective based on historical rally patterns for this time of year.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no posted targets yet.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended mixed Monday, with July and August contracts finishing lower while deferred months closed higher. July soybeans are now in delivery and expire July 14. The USDA reports were largely neutral with a slightly bearish tilt, though modest acreage keeps upside potential intact if weather turns threatening. Both soybean meal and oil posted gains.

  • USDA pegged planted acreage at 83.38 million acres, nearly matching expectations (83.66 ma) but well below last year’s 87.05 ma. Grain stocks came in at 1.008 billion bushels vs. 970 million last year — slightly bearish but within range.

  • Weekly export inspections totaled 8.3 million bushels, soft for the week, but cumulative inspections for 2024/25 are now at 1.685 billion bushels — up 10% from last year. USDA projects exports at 1.850 bb.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 35,717 contracts which reduced their net long position to 23,448 contracts. They sold 1,824 contracts of bean oil and 2,999 contracts of meal.

Soybeans Retreat from Recent Highs
Soybeans failed to close above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A breakout above 1082 would open the door toward filling the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. Soybean futures found support last week at the 200-day moving average and the bottom end of the recent range near 1030. A break below the 200-day would likely open the door to a test of the April lows near 980.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed lower across the board Monday, weighed down by neutral-to-bearish USDA report data, a weaker Matif close, and lack of fresh supportive news. Mixed closes in corn and soybeans offered no spillover strength.

  • USDA pegged all wheat acreage at 45.5 million acres — slightly bearish. While below last year’s 46.1 ma, it came in 100,000 acres above both the March intentions and average trade estimates.

  • Quarterly wheat stocks were notably bearish at 851 million bushels—above the high end of trade expectations and well above last year’s 696 mb.

  • Weekly wheat inspections were 16 mb, bringing total 25/26 inspections to 47 mb, which is down 8% from last year. Inspections are running behind the USDA’s estimated pace. Total 25/26 exports are projected at 825 mb, up 1% from the year prior.

  • On a bullish note, Argentina is said to need more moisture for establishment of their winter wheat crop. There is not much precipitation in the forecast, except for scattered showers this weekend. It is a similar story for Australia, with winter wheat areas too dry.

  • Western Europe continues to endure heat and dryness early this week, with some relief expected midweek.

  • According to a German farming association (DBV) estimate, their nation’s 25/26 grain harvest is expected to total 40.1 mmt, compared to 39 mmt the year prior. This 2.8% increase may be partially due to increased winter crop plantings. Good conditions in the fall allowed for this increase, and 2.78 million hectares of winter wheat were said to be planted.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
Initial support is at the June low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a larger move toward the winter high of 621.75.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.

2025 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell a fifth portion of your 2025 KC wheat following Friday’s close below 535.75 support on the September contract — the designated Plan B stop to trigger a sale.  As long as the market held above that support, the trend remained up, and Plan A was to wait for better opportunities. However, breaking below 535.75 now signals a risk that the trend is turning back down, with the first downside target potentially being a retest of the May low at 500.25.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 535.75 support vs September and sell more cash. – HIT 6/26

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Struggles Above Major Moving Averages
Strength in June pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness late in June sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holding Above Resistance
Spring wheat futures spent nearly all of June above the upper end of the previous range and above a confluence of major moving averages. Key support now sits at the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that level — and especially beneath the May low of 572.50 — would open the door to further downside risk.

Other Charts / Weather

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6-30 Midday: Grains Mostly Higher ahead of USDA Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’25 421.5 4
DEC ’25 427 0
DEC ’26 457 0.75
Soybeans
JUL ’25 1037.5 9.75
NOV ’25 1037 12.25
NOV ’26 1058.75 8.75
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’25 531 6.25
SEP ’25 543 2.25
JUL ’26 599.5 0.75
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’25 517.25 1.25
SEP ’25 535.5 1.75
JUL ’26 599.25 1
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’25 6.08 0
SEP ’25 6.3175 0.0375
SEP ’26 6.7075 0
S&P 500
SEP ’25 6233 9.25
Crude Oil
AUG ’25 64.79 -0.73
Gold
AUG ’25 3302.1 14.5

  • Corn trade is quiet Monday morning as markets await the USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks reports.

  • Analysts expect a slight increase in U.S. planted corn acreage, while June 1 stocks are projected to be lower than a year ago.

  • Pockets of dryness are emerging east of the Mississippi River, and warmer-than-normal temperatures over the next 10 days may further stress crops in areas that have missed recent rains.

  • Soybean futures are higher Monday morning ahead of the USDA report at 11 a.m., supported by news of a trade truce with China over the weekend.

  • A daily flash sale of soybean meal to unknown destinations also provided an early boost.

  • Trade expectations call for a slight increase in planted acreage from March intentions, while June 1 soybean stocks are projected to be near last year’s 970 million bushels.

  • Wheat futures are slightly higher to start the week, supported by positive trade developments over the weekend.

  • Traders are anticipating total U.S. wheat acreage to come in between 45 and 46 million acres in today’s USDA report, though more attention may be paid to stocks figures, which will represent 2024-25 beginning supplies.

  • Weather remains a key factor, with storms forecast across Kansas, Nebraska, and the Dakotas likely to slow winter wheat harvest progress. The Northern Plains also experienced heavy weekend rains and tornadoes in North Dakota, adding to concerns.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

6-30 Opening Update: Grains Mixed Ahead of USDA Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’25 419.5 2
DEC ’25 424.25 -2.75
DEC ’26 454.25 -2

Soybeans

JUL ’25 1029.25 1.5
NOV ’25 1028 3.25
NOV ’26 1052.25 2.25

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’25 524.5 -0.25
SEP ’25 538.5 -2.25
JUL ’26 596.5 -2.25

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’25 515 -1
SEP ’25 532 -1.75
JUL ’26 595.5 -2.75

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’25 6.08 0
SEP ’25 6.23 -0.05
SEP ’26 6.7075 0

S&P 500

SEP ’25 6252 28.25

Crude Oil

AUG ’25 65.17 -0.35

Gold

AUG ’25 3290.6 3

  • Corn is trading lower to start the day following Friday’s move higher as traders anticipate today’s acreage report with concern that it could be bearish. The acreage and grain stocks reports in June have a history of being market movers.

  • Today at 11am, the USDA will release its updated acreage report, and analysts are expecting corn acres to increase slightly to 95.3 ma from 95.3, but some are anticipating an even larger number. Quarterly stocks are estimated at 4,648 mb.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of corn as of June 24. They bought 2,506 contracts leaving them with a net short position of 182,282 contracts.

  • Soybeans are trading higher to start the day as trade anticipates a friendly stocks and acreage report today. Soybean oil is lending support with higher prices while soybean meal is lower.

  • Today, the USDA will release its updated acreage report, and although a change in soybean acres from 83.5 ma is not expected, there is some wiggle room with trade estimates between 82 and 85 ma. Quarterly stocks are estimated at 971 mb.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 35,717 contracts which reduced their net long position to 23,448 contracts. They sold 1,824 contracts of bean oil and sold 2,999 contracts of meal.

  • Wheat is mixed to start the day with only Minneapolis trading slightly higher. The July contacts is Chicago and KC wheat are higher but are also in delivery as of today.

  • Today’s acreage report is expected to show unchanged wheat acres from the March report at 45.4 million, but some analysts think that number could be lower with acres lost to more corn. Estimates for quarterly stocks are at 835 mb for wheat.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of Chicago wheat by 16,686 contracts which left them net short 64,667 contracts. They bought back 18,689 contracts of KC wheat leaving them short 43,462 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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6-27 End of Day: Grains Rebound Ahead of USDA Report and Weather Shift

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures closed higher Friday for the first time in five sessions, ending the week with moderate to strong gains. Support came from short covering ahead of Monday’s USDA Acreage Report, though December corn still finished the week down 14 ¼ cents.

  • 🌱 Soybeans:  Soybean futures closed higher on Friday, breaking a five-day losing streak. The rally was supported by updated European weather models pointing to a hotter, drier July outlook, along with likely short covering ahead of the weekend.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures halted their recent slide Friday, with gains in Chicago and Minneapolis while Kansas City ended mixed.

  • To see updated U.S. weather forecasts scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no active targets to report. So far, typical growing season volatility has yet to materialize and generate additional selling opportunities. The next 2–3 weeks will be critical, as the likelihood of weather-driven price spikes tends to drop off significantly after that window.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

    • Roll-down 510 & 550 December calls if December drops to 399.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. The strategy remains ready for weather-related volatility, but so far the markets have yet to experience anything significant enough to trigger action.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished higher Friday for the first time in five sessions, closing the week with moderate to strong gains. A weaker U.S. dollar, short covering ahead of Monday’s USDA Acreage Report, and July first notice day helped lift the market. Despite Friday’s rebound, December corn still ended the week down 14 ¼ cents.

  • Much of Friday’s strength was likely tied to pre-report positioning and short covering. The trade expects planted corn acres as of June 1 to total 95.35 million, slightly above the March estimate of 95.3 million. However, the wide range of analyst estimates (93.8 to 96.8 million) adds potential for volatility when the report is released.

  • Argentina will be reinstalling their export taxes on July 1, increasing the costs of Argentina ag products. The taxes were originally dropped to promote demand and raise revenue.

  • Weather forecasts remain favorable for crop development into early July, with near-normal temperatures and above-average rainfall expected. However, some models are now introducing hotter conditions for mid-July, which could impact pollination.

  • New-crop corn sales have picked up recently. Last week saw 12 million bushels in export sales, while Mexico added 25 million bushels of new-crop purchases during the week.

Corn Futures Break Lower end of Recent Range
Front-month corn futures have struggled throughout June, breaking key support and leaving an unfilled chart gap following the roll to September. That gap near 430 now stands as the first upside target. On the downside, this week’s low of 404 offers initial support, with stronger support seen at 394.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None. No adjustment to the 1107 target, as it remains a feasible objective for this time of year based on historical weather-driven rally patterns.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. Same approach as with 2025 corn and 2024 soybeans — the strategy remains positioned for significant volatility, though nothing substantial has developed yet. The 1114 upside target also remains unchanged, as it continues to be a realistic objective based on historical rally patterns for this time of year.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still no posted targets yet.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean futures ended higher Friday, snapping a five-day losing streak. Support came after the European weather model shifted overnight, projecting a hotter and drier July than previously expected. Additionally, short covering ahead of the weekend likely added to the strength. Soybean meal closed higher, while soybean oil remained under pressure.

  • Soybean meal continues to face global headwinds, with increased crush capacity in both the U.S. and South America leading to abundant supplies. The August soybean meal contract has dropped $20 per ton over the past two weeks after breaking technical support, and this week marked the lowest price levels since 2016.

  • Looking ahead to Monday, USDA will release its updated Acreage Report. While expectations are for soybean acreage to remain steady at 83.5 million acres, trade estimates range between 82.0 and 85.0 million, leaving room for a surprise.

  • On Monday, the USDA will release its updated acreage report, and although a change in soybean acres from 83.5 ma is not expected, there is some wiggle room with trade estimates between 82 and 85 ma.For the week, July soybeans lost 40 1/4 cents, settling at $10.27 3/4, while November fell 36 cents to $10.24 3/4. July soybean meal dropped $13.00 to $271.10, and July soybean oil slipped 2.02 cents to 52.45 cents. First notice day for July grain contracts is June 30, with expiration on July 14.

Soybeans Retreat from Recent Highs
Soybeans failed to close above key resistance at the May high of 1082 last week, keeping the broader trend sideways. A breakout above 1082 would open the door toward filling the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. Soybean futures found support this week at the 200-day moving average and the bottom end of the recent range near 1030. A break below the 200-day would likely open the door to a test of the April lows near 980.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures halted their recent slide Friday, with gains in Chicago and Minneapolis while Kansas City ended mixed. Support came from a higher close in Matif wheat, strength in corn and soybeans, and optimism around potential progress in U.S.-China trade discussions, prompting a technical bounce.

  • Attention now shifts to Monday’s USDA Quarterly Stocks and Acreage Reports. Pre-report estimates peg U.S. wheat stocks at 835 million bushels, significantly above last year’s 696 mb. All-wheat planted acreage is expected to remain unchanged from March at 45.4 million acres — if realized, the second smallest total since 1919.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat crop is 73% planted. This is slightly behind last year’s pace, but above the five-year average, as dry weather has allowed sowing to progress. However, it is being reported that both Argentina and Australian wheat corps are in need of moisture.

  • Statistics Canada estimated all-wheat acreage at 26.925 million acres, a reduction from March’s 27.475 million and below trade expectations. Spring wheat acreage was pegged at 18.809 million acres, also down from March (19.4 ma) and under the Bloomberg survey estimate of 19.2 ma.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 690.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
After running up to resistance levels last week, wheat futures have fallen sharply back below the upper end of the previous range. Initial support is at the June low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a larger move toward the winter high of 621.75.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 677.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.

2025 Crop:

  • NEW ALERT – Sell a fifth portion of your 2025 KC wheat following yesterday’s close below 535.75 support on the September contract — the designated Plan B stop to trigger a sale.  As long as the market held above that support, the trend remained up, and Plan A was to wait for better opportunities. However, breaking below 535.75 now signals a risk that the trend is turning back down, with the first downside target potentially being a retest of the May low at 500.25.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 535.75 support vs September and sell more cash. – HIT 6/26

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Struggles Above Major Moving Averages
Strength last week pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness so far this week has sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holding Above Resistance
Spring wheat futures broke out above key resistance last week, establishing 660 as the next upside target. The early-week pullback appears to be a healthy correction within the broader uptrend. Key support now sits at the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that level — and especially beneath the May low of 572.50 — would open the door to further downside risk.

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