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Grain Market Insider: October 10, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Harvest pressure and carryover weakness from the wheat market conspired to pressure the corn market to a lower finish following choppy trade in today’s session.

  • Strong export inspections that were well above expectations supported the front end of the soybean market, that rallied from its lows to finish within 2 cents of the day’s high.

  • Soybean meal also rallied along with the bean market while soybean oil found pressure from the weak biofuel RIN values and lower world veg oil prices.

  • While the wheat complex continues to consolidate, all three classes traded lower on the day, in classic turnaround Tuesday fashion, as the market refocused on lackluster demand, with weak weekly export inspections and year-to-date totals that fall behind last year by 29%.

  • The U.S. Dollar traded lower today as hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials stated that the recent increase in bond yields may reduce the need for additional rate hikes. Additionally, at the dollar’s peak on October 3, the Bank of Japan sold U.S. Dollars to support the yen. Any further weakness in the dollar will likely help U.S. exports be more competitive in the world market.

  • To see the current U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast, the 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and South American 1 week precipitation forecasts from the NWS and NOAA, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The last couple weeks Dec ’23 corn has seen a bump from a low of 467.75 to a high last week of 499.00. Since mid-August, the psychological 500.00 level has served as market resistance on the front month. Without any bullish catalyst from the coming USDA Supply and Demand report this Thursday, the market remains at risk of sideways to lower price action. In years without bullish fundamental tailwinds at this time of year, the worst case scenarios have seen prices trend slowly lower into anywhere from late November to early January. If you’re new to Insider and were not a subscriber during this summer’s rally, Insider did recommend making sales into that summer rally when Dec ’23 was around 624.00, so for now the thought process is to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter, with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by early winter, then Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until next spring. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall and must move them, consider re-owning those bushels with either July or September ’24 call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. The Dec ’24 contract has held up better than Dec ’23 as bear spreading over the last several months has brought increased buying interest into Dec ’24 and other further out contract months. Back in late July, the Dec ’23 contract traded up to a 25-cent premium over Dec ’24. Now Dec ’24 holds a 28-cent premium over Dec ’23. This bear spreading has the Dec ’24 price up about 28 cents from its year-to-date low. The risk for 2024 prices is the same as 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a lower trend without a bullish catalyst on this Thursday’s Supply and Demand report. Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Insider recommended buying 560 and 610 Dec ’23 call options ahead of the summer rally, and having those in place helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700.00 or 800.00 that the call options would protect those sold bushels. 

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of corn recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/2 Call/2 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • Corn futures finished lower on the day as harvest pressure and selling in the wheat market weighed on the corn futures. December corn finished 2 ¾ cents lower but held above the $4.85 initial support level.

  • The USDA will release the next round of crop progress numbers on Tuesday afternoon. Corn harvest is expected to be near 35% complete.

  • Weekly export inspections for last week were released today after the Columbus Day holiday yesterday. Last week, USDA shipped 551,000 MT (21.7 mb) of corn. Total inspections for the 23/24 marketing year are at 128 mb, up 14% from last year. The USDA is forecasting corn exports to be 2.050 bb, a 23% increase over the last marketing year.

  • The weather forecast for the first half of the week looks overall friendly to keep harvest pace moving along. Projected moisture in the 2nd half of the week going into the weekend may slow harvest progress going into next week for north and central areas of the Corn Belt.

  • The market will likely stay choppy this week as the market prepares for the USDA’s WASDE report on Thursday, October 12. Expectations are for corn yield and production to be reduced slightly. Any possible demand adjustments will be the key to determining the carryout projections.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, with some minor short covering lifting prices in recent days. Resistance remains above the market between 490 – 516, and support below the market may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. The Nov ’23 contract has been finding buying interest around the June 2023 low of 1256.75 on the front month. Over the last seven trading days, Nov ’23 has traded largely between 1260.00 and 1280.00.  If there were to be a bullish catalyst from this Thursday’s USDA Supply and Demand report and Nov ’23 subsequently closed over 1287.25, that could signal the possibility that a harvest/fall low is in. Bigger picture, since May 2023, the front month contract has traded in a range from 1256.75 on the downside to 1435.00 on the topside. If you are a newer subscriber to Insider and were not with us back in the summer, Insider did make two sales recommendations in the 1310-1360 price window versus Nov ’23. Given those sales recommendations were already made and given that now is not the time of year to be making many if any sales, Insider is content to hold tight on next sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter. The focus for strategy right now is to be on the lookout for any call option buying opportunities. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall, consider buying those sold bushels back with July or August ’24 call options.

  • No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Nov ’24 continues to trade at a discount to Nov ’23. That discount was over 90 cents in late summer yet has stabilized lately around the 10-20 cent range.  Since July, the Nov ’24 contract has largely traded between 1250 and 1320, so this contract is currently testing the bottom end of that range. To date, Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be early winter at the soonest. Currently, Insider’s focus is also on watching for any opportunities to recommend buying call options.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of soybean recommendations:
• 2023: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • Soybeans ended the day higher in the front months after a lower open, while November ‘24 beans closed slightly lower. Soybean meal also ended higher, while soybean oil was lower amid a down day in world veg oils. Solid export inspections were supportive for the soy complex today.

  • Export inspections were the best that have been seen in months. The USDA initially released the inspections number at 1.643 mmt, but that turned out to be a slight error with the real number coming in at 1.036 mmt, still very impressive.

  • Supplies of soybeans in Brazil appear to be tightening, giving the U.S. a good opportunity to export beans. China has been an active buyer out of the PNW for October through December, and barge rates have been coming down, so that may provide more opportunity, though soybeans will need a continued bump in demand to justify a rally.

  • Estimates for Thursday’s WASDE report call for soybean yields to fall slightly to 49.9 bpa from 50.1 bpa in last month’s estimate. Production is expected to be lowered slightly to 4.134 bb. It is unknown if the USDA will make adjustments to demand in this report.

Above: Since the end of August, the soybean market has been in a downtrend, and though it has been consolidating, it remains oversold, which can be supportive if prices turn higher. Initial support to the downside lies near the recent low of 1254, with further support between 1238 – 1214, while resistance above the market lies between 1285 – 1323. 

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat reversed yesterday’s trend, finishing today’s session with double-digit losses in Chicago and K.C., despite rising tensions in the Middle East and the Black Sea. Paris milling wheat futures also lost about 2.75 to 3.25 Euros today, suggesting that today’s negativity might not be fundamental in nature. Rather, the funds may have added to short positions, and begun positioning ahead of Thursday’s WASDE report.

  • Fundamentally, global wheat production is setting a bullish backdrop for the marketplace. Growing regions in Australia and Argentina are very dry, and southern Brazil has seen enough rain to cause flooding. Which is also causing concern about their wheat production and quality. With that said, western and central Brazil, along with Argentina, have better chances for good rain in some of the longer range forecasts.

  • Today’s wheat export inspections data initially showed inspections of about 395,000 mt, which was incorrect. A correction was later issued that totaled 265,242 mt, or 9.75 mb.

  • Ag Resource is projecting an Argentine wheat crop of 15.2 mmt, compared to the USDA estimate of 16.5 mmt. And because of the El Nino weather pattern, some analysts are estimating that Australia’s crop could be down by as much as 50%.

  • Although they raised their corn harvest estimate to 12.1 mmt from 11.5 mmt, France kept their soft wheat production estimate unchanged at 35.1 mmt, which compares to last year’s 33.7 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market in recent weeks has been sensitive to slow export demand, weather, and headlines regarding the Black Sea region.Now with harvest behind us, and new crop planting upon us, markets can still change suddenly due to El Nino and unforeseen geopolitical events, even though export demand remains weak. Following the recent recommendation to make an additional sale for the 2023 crop, Insider will continue to watch for any violations of support while also looking for prices to reach 600 – 650 before suggesting any further sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. There is plenty of time to market the 2024 crop and with the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, many uncertainties remain that could shock prices higher, like geopolitical instability and dryness in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 750, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Chicago wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: December wheat has been consolidating since the break on September 29. The market’s previous range of 570 – 618 is an area of resistance which will need more bullish input to rally through. If the market breaks further, support below the market resides between 533 – 524.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 700 – 750 before considering any additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian exports continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further, while war persists in the Black Sea region, and production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino. With the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, there are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and Insider will also be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales if prices turn around and rally north of 775. 

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of K.C. wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since the end of September, K.C. wheat has been consolidating after finding initial support just below the market near 660. If the market resumes its downtrend, the next levels of support below 660 come in around 630 and then 575, while resistance to the upside may be found between 710 – 722.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada, and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices move towards 750 – 800, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices, Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further, while war persists in the Black Sea region, and production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino. With the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, there are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally towards 800, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales. 

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since early September, Dec Minneapolis wheat has been largely rangebound, and the recent breakout to the downside on September 29 has the market poised to test support near the May ’21 low of 665. If prices turn higher, initial resistance may be found between 745 – 760.

Other Charts / Weather

U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Brazil 1 week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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Midday Update: October 10, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
DEC ’23 486.75 -1.5
MAR ’24 502 -1.75
DEC ’24 514.75 -1.5
Soybeans
NOV ’23 1268 3.75
JAN ’24 1286 3.5
NOV ’24 1247 -3.5
Chicago Wheat
DEC ’23 562.25 -10.5
MAR ’24 593.5 -10
JUL ’24 631 -9.75
K.C. Wheat
DEC ’23 676.25 -9.75
MAR ’24 685.25 -9.5
JUL ’24 695 -9.25
Mpls Wheat
DEC ’23 727.25 -3.75
MAR ’24 751.75 -3.5
SEP ’24 781.25 -10.5
S&P 500
DEC ’23 4411.25 42.5
Crude Oil
DEC ’23 83.78 -0.82
Gold
DEC ’23 1870.9 6.6

  • November corn on China’s Dalian Exchange remains near the lowest price in three months, despite being a little higher on Tuesday.

  • Brazil’s first corn crop is reported to be about 30% planted, while Argentina’s crop is 15% planted.

  • Despite uncertainty in the Middle East, the U.S. stock market held up well yesterday and is trading higher at midday with the Dow up about 150 points. However, crude oil is currently trading about 50-60 cents lower per barrel after yesterday’s strong increase.

  • Midwest farmers should have another one or two days for good harvest progress before there is widespread rain coverage. Weather models have recently shifted the rain a little further north, but much of the Midwest could see 1-3 inches of rain.

  • November soybeans on China’s Dalian Exchange traded to the lowest level in two months on Tuesday.

  • Yesterday it was estimated that spec traders sold about 5,000 contracts of soybean oil, and the sharply higher crude market yesterday was not enough to support veg oil prices.

  • Brazil’s soybean plantings are said to have reached 10% complete, which is in line with expectations, as well as last year.

  • Malaysian palm oil stocks rose almost 10% in September but were still slightly below expectations at 2.3 mmt. Production did increase 4% over the previous month, which was in line with expectations.

  • Despite the tensions in Israel and the Black Sea, all three U.S. wheat classes are sharply lower this morning alongside Paris milling wheat futures. This could be tied to positioning ahead of Thursday’s USDA report, in which wheat stocks are expected to be increased.

  • Southern Brazil is receiving too much rain, which is likely to impact wheat production and quality in that region. Long range forecasts are predicting better chances for meaningful rain in west / central Brazil, as well as Argentina – areas that will welcome any moisture they can get.

  • Ag Resource is estimating Argentina’s wheat production to fall to 15.2 mmt versus the USDA’s estimate of 16.5 mmt. Meanwhile, Australia’s crop could be down as much as 50% by some estimates, due to the impacts of El Nino.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: October 10, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 484.75 -3.5
MAR ’24 500 -3.75
DEC ’24 513.25 -3

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1256.25 -8
JAN ’24 1274 -8.5
NOV ’24 1240.5 -10

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 561.25 -11.5
MAR ’24 593 -10.5
JUL ’24 630 -10.75

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 674.25 -11.75
MAR ’24 683.25 -11.5
JUL ’24 695.75 -8.5

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 721.25 -9.75
MAR ’24 745.75 -9.5
SEP ’24 791.75 9.75

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4374 5.25

Crude Oil

DEC ’23 84.25 -0.35

Gold

DEC ’23 1868.6 4.3

  • Corn started off the day lower following the attack on Israel over the weekend and ahead of the WASDE report on Thursday. Prices have leveled off from Friday’s high.

  • Estimates for Thursday’s USDA report have yields slightly lower at 173.5 bpa compared to 173.8 bpa, and production at 15.121 bb which is also slightly lower than the last estimate.

  • Brazilian summer corn is reportedly 51.2% planted which compares with 44.5% a year ago and the 5-year average of 40.1%. The planted acres are slightly smaller than the previous year.

  • Indonesia is set to import 250,000 tons of corn for animal feed to anticipate the El Nino pattern and will source this corn from multiple countries.

  • Soybeans are starting the day lower as well and are above the level of support at 12.56-3/4 in Nov but dipped below that low overnight getting down to 12.54-1/4.

  • Both soybean meal and oil are lower this morning and the recent selloff in the soy products is limiting processing returns and is likely slowing crush demand.

  • Estimates for Thursday’s WASDE report call for soybean yields to fall slightly yo 49.9 bpa from 50.1 bpa in last month’s estimate. Production is expected to be lowered slightly to 4.134 bb.

  • Brazil is now 10.1% planted which is nearly equal to the progress from a week ago. This comes as excessive rains and fungal infections in parts of the country limit progress.

  • Wheat is lower this morning along with the rest of the grain complex as it stays in a narrow trading range.

  • Thursday’s WASDE report should show a higher production estimate for US wheat near 1.812 billion bushels, but changes could be made on the demand side as well.

  • UN officials will visit Moscow to continue talks about the Black Sea grain deal, but so far Ukraine doesn’t seem to be running into much trouble exporting grain on their own.

  • While Argentina and Australia’s wheat crops that are struggling with drought, Kazakhstan’s wheat quality is being hurt significantly by heavy rains.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Grain Market Insider: October 9, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Carryover strength from higher wheat and crude oil on Mid-East geopolitical concerns, gave way to choppy trade and harvest pressure in the corn market as the day wore on, with December corn closing near the bottom of its range.

  • Choppy trade dominated the soybean market that settled mid-range and lower on the day in the November contract as weakness from sharply lower soybean oil outweighed overnight strength and higher meal prices.

  • Despite sharply higher crude oil prices, soybean oil succumbed to technical selling as the December contract broke to its lowest prices in three months. Today’s weakness not only pressured soybeans but also Board crush margins, which lost 8 ½ cents in the December contracts.

  • In addition to the uncertainty surrounding less-than-ideal growing conditions in the southern hemisphere, rising geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea, and now the Middle East, supported the wheat complex which traded higher through the day after Chicago and K.C. gapped higher on the open Sunday night.

  • Before retreating from its highs in the day session, the U.S. Dollar was jolted higher overnight in a flight to quality trade from the geopolitical uncertainty generated in the Middle East from the Hamas attacks on Israel over the weekend.  In recent weeks, the dollar’s resurgence has added headwinds to U.S. exports by making them more expensive on the world market.

  • To see the current U.S. 3 – 4 week Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from NOAA, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The 2023 growing season has been marked with many challenges that whipsawed the market up and down in a 140-cent range. And while we are at the time of year when lows are often made, the market is still subject to many unforeseen influences that can move prices higher, like in 2020 when the market went on to test contract highs and beyond after hitting market lows before harvest. For now, after locking in gains from previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until later in the year (when markets tend to strengthen) before considering suggesting any additional sales. Insider is also monitoring the market for any re-ownership opportunities, should it experience an extended rally.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of corn recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/2 Call/2 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • Corn futures were very choppy throughout the day after losing overnight strength, closing 3 ¾ cents lower on the session. Middle East geopolitical tensions and harvest pressure limited any rallies in the corn market today.

  • Geopolitical concerns in the Middle East with the Israeli-Hamas war occurring over the weekend brought a lot of volatility and nervous trade to the marketplace. A strong move higher in crude oil prices supported the grain markets, but that was replaced by a general “risk-off” trade in commodities on the day.

  • Harvest pressure remains a constant in the corn market as harvest ramps up. Due to the Columbus Day holiday, the USDA will not release crop progress pace until Tuesday afternoon. Weather this week looks friendly to keep harvest moving until a rain system moves in towards the end of the week.

  • The corn market lacked any news on the session as the Columbus Day holiday paused Export Inspections report, Crop Progress report, or any potential export sales from over the weekend. Those reports and information will be released tomorrow.

  • The market will likely stay choppy this week as the market prepares for the USDA WASDE report on Thursday, October 12. Expectations are for production to decrease slightly. 

  • Managed money continues to hold a large net short position in the corn market. On Last week’s Commitment of Trader’s report, funds were net short 159,433 contracts of corn.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, with some minor short covering lifting prices in recent days. Resistance remains above the market between 490 – 516, and support below the market may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, October 3. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 9,173 contracts between September 27 – October 3, bringing their total position to a net short 159,433 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions, and export sales. While export demand currently lags last year’s numbers, ending stocks are also currently estimated at a tight 220 million bushels. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks. 

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop. Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for 2024 soybeans, and while it may be toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales, Insider will keep an eye out for any upside opportunities, should the market experience an extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of soybean recommendations:
• 2023: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • Soybeans ended the day slightly lower after opening higher. The weekend news regarding Israel declaring war on Hamas, and Iran reportedly backing the attack, sent crude oil higher and initially brought most commodities higher as well, but they faded throughout the day. Additionally, soybean meal ended higher while soybean oil closed lower.

  • This Thursday, the USDA WASDE report will be released, and early estimates are calling for soybean yields to be lowered slightly to 49.9 bpa from 50.1 bpa in last month’s report. Production is estimated to come in at 4.134 billion bushels, slightly below last month’s USDA estimate.

  • In Brazil, soybean supplies are reportedly getting thin and could open up significant export opportunities for the U.S. for October and November out of the PNW. The U.S. is currently the only offer for that time frame.

  • Brazil’s 23/24 soybean crop is now 10.1% planted, which is up 4.8% from the previous week. Planting is also going more slowly than expected in Brazil, as the Northern and Central regions deal with dryness, and the Southern regions deal with too much moisture.

Above: The soybean market remains in a downtrend and is oversold, which is supportive if prices turn back higher.  Resistance above the market lies between 1285 – 1323. Initial support to the downside lies near 1238 – 1214, with further key support down near 1181.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, October 3. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 25,057 contracts between September 27 – October 3, bringing their total position to a net long 5,001 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The wheat market received a boost today as the trade added more war premium. Along with new Russian attacks on Odessa, over the weekend there was also some uncertainty in the Middle East. Hamas attacked Israel with missiles, and Iran is also said to be involved. Given that wheat is a staple in this region, it sparked a reaction from the market. As an aside, the Hamas attacks also sent crude oil sharply higher due to concern about production out of that part of the world.

  • Globally there are growing concerns for multiple wheat producers. Western Australia is facing drought, and in Argentina, some analysts are projecting a wheat crop of 15 mmt or less; the USDA is estimating 16.5 mmt currently. Because of this, it is being said that Argentina’s farmers are selling wheat at the slowest pace in seven years.

  • In the face of danger from Russia, 12 ships are said to be waiting to enter Ukraine’s humanitarian corridor to transport grain. Although, Russia remains the dominant wheat exporter, with IKAR estimating their exports at 64.5 mmt of grain, compared with 64.0 mmt previously. In addition, they also increased their estimate of Russian grain production by 1.2 mmt to 141.2 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market in recent weeks has been sensitive to slow export demand, weather, and headlines regarding the Black Sea region. Now with harvest behind us, and new crop planting upon us, markets can still change suddenly due to El Nino and unforeseen geopolitical events, even though export demand remains weak. Following the recent recommendation to make an additional sale for the 2023 crop, Insider will continue to watch for any violations of support while also looking for prices to reach 650 – 700 before suggesting any further sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Chicago wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Following the September 29 Grain Stocks report, the December contract broke out of its previous range to the downside and has since rallied back. That previous range of 570 – 618 is an area of resistance which the market will need more bullish input to rally through.  If it cannot, support below the market resides between 533 – 524.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, October 3. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 2,404 contracts between September 27 – October 3, bringing their total position to a net short 98,788 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 750 – 800 before considering any additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of K.C. wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since the beginning of September, the market has drifted sideways to lower. The recent breakout to the downside has Dec. K.C. wheat looking toward 630 and 575 for the next levels of support, while nearby resistance on the upside rests between 710 – 722.

K.C. Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, October 3. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 4,055 contracts between September 27 – October 3, bringing their total position to a net short 23,827 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices begin to improve, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since early September, Dec Minneapolis wheat has been largely rangebound, and the recent breakout to the downside on September 29 has the market poised to test support near the May ’21 low of 665. If prices turn higher, initial resistance may be found between 745 – 760.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, October 3. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 5,329 contracts between September 27 – October 3, bringing their total position to a net short 20,986 contracts. 

Other Charts / Weather

U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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Midday Update: October 9, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
DEC ’23 488.5 -3.5
MAR ’24 503.75 -3.5
DEC ’24 516.5 -3
Soybeans
NOV ’23 1265 -1
JAN ’24 1283.5 -1
NOV ’24 1250 -5.5
Chicago Wheat
DEC ’23 571.5 3.25
MAR ’24 601.75 3.75
JUL ’24 638.5 4.5
K.C. Wheat
DEC ’23 682.25 8.5
MAR ’24 690.75 8
JUL ’24 699.5 7.25
Mpls Wheat
DEC ’23 732 11.5
MAR ’24 756 11
SEP ’24 791 9
S&P 500
DEC ’23 4326.5 -15
Crude Oil
DEC ’23 84.53 3.25
Gold
DEC ’23 1866.4 21.2

  • The big news from this weekend was the Hamas missile attacks on Israel. This news has crude oil up over three dollars per barrel this morning. If energy prices continue to rise, it could provide support for ethanol and the corn market.

  • December corn closed on Friday with the highest weekly close in over one month. While it remains rangebound for now, this is somewhat unexpected given the fact that the U.S. Midwest is in the thick of harvest.

  • The U.S. attaché in Beijing increased their estimate of Chinese corn production to 280 mmt (from 277 mmt). In addition, China’s corn import estimate was reduced from 23 mmt to 20 mmt.  

  • Northern and central Brazil are too dry, but southern regions are too wet. According to AgRural, Brazil’s first corn crop is now 28% planted. In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has said that their corn crop is 14% planted.

  • After showing some strength overnight, soybean futures have since faded into negative territory as of mid-morning. The market may be wary of war in the Middle East with uncertainty as to what that might to do the grain trade.

  • According to CFTC data, as of October 3rd, funds reduced their net long position in soybeans to only 5,000 contracts.

  • Due to the Columbus Day holiday today, Export Inspections and Crop Progress reports are delayed until tomorrow. However, soybean harvest is anticipated to be about 50% complete as of Sunday.

  • This Thursday traders will receive the October Supply and Demand report. Expectations at this time are for a slight decrease to soybean yield and production.

  • China’s soybean futures price reportedly dropped 4% as they return from their Golden Week holiday. This may weigh on the U.S. market, but now that they are back it could also mean new purchases of U.S. soybeans.

  • New Russian attacks on the Odesa port in Ukraine, along with uncertainty in the Middle East, are keeping wheat afloat at midday despite lower corn and soybean futures.

  • Despite the danger they face, there are said to be another 12 vessels waiting to enter Ukraine’s humanitarian corridor.

  • According to IKAR’s estimate, Russian grain production is increased 1.2 mmt to 141.2 mmt. Exports are estimated at 64.5 mmt vs 64 mmt in the previous projection.

  • The USDA is estimating Argentina’s wheat crop at 16.5 mmt, however, some analysts have the crop at 15 mmt or lower due to the dryness they are experiencing.  

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: October 9, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 495.25 3.25
MAR ’24 510.5 3.25
DEC ’24 521.25 1.75

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1273.25 7.25
JAN ’24 1291.75 7.25
NOV ’24 1259 3.5

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 577.75 9.5
MAR ’24 607.75 9.75
JUL ’24 641.75 7.75

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 682.5 8.75
MAR ’24 691.75 9
JUL ’24 701 8.75

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 732.75 12.25
MAR ’24 755.5 10.5
SEP ’24 782 -8

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4314.75 -26.75

Crude Oil

DEC ’23 84.03 2.75

Gold

DEC ’23 1862.9 17.7

  • Corn is trading higher this morning with the December contract near its highest levels in a month despite good harvest progress over the weekend.

  • Israel has declared war on Hamas over the weekend after they attacked the Gaza Strip killing civilians, and now there are fears of fresh tensions between the US and oil-producing Middle Eastern countries.

  • In Brazil, the first crop corn is reportedly 28% planted, and in Argentina, only 14% planted with conditions still extremely dry.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials as buyers of corn by 9,173 contracts, reducing their net short position to 159,433 contracts.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning after a lower close on Friday which saw November soybeans down by 9 cents on the week. Both soybean meal and oil are higher this morning.

  • The soy complex is benefitting from higher crude oil which is likely a result of the war with Iran reportedly orchestrating the attacks. This may cause tension with the US.

  • China is back from their Golden Holiday week but found prices on the Dalian exchange sharply lower with November soybeans down 4.3% and at a new two month low.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials as sellers of 25,057 contracts reducing their net long position to a very small 5,001 contracts.

  • Wheat is trading higher along with the rest of the grain complex as prices continue to rebound from last week’s low.

  • Support comes from concern about tight world supplies as Argentina and Australia expect smaller crops due to poor weather, and the escalating fight between Ukraine and Russia.

  • Russia continued its attacks on Ukrainian grain facilities and a port in southern Ukraine as they continue to export their grain through their own corridor in the Black Sea.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials selling 2,396 contracts, increasing their net short position to 98,788 contracts. Funds hold a much larger short position than is typical for this time of year. 

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Grain Market Insider: October 6, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Following the highest close in over a month, the corn market experienced choppy trade throughout the day. While overbought conditions added to the pressure from the financial markets, December corn remains above the 50-day moving average.

  • Despite overnight strength on follow through buying from yesterday’s gains, the soybean market chopped lower through the day, along with soybean meal, on the threat of higher borrowing costs and stronger headwinds in the export market from the higher dollar.  Soybean oil, being more oversold and less influenced by export business, maintained a positive close, but well off the day’s highs.

  • While concerns regarding escalation of the Ukraine war continue to reverberate through the wheat market, the shock to the U.S. dollar and reports of higher Ukrainian wheat production helped pressure all three wheat classes as they gave up half of Thursday’s gains.

  • The U.S. dollar and interest rates traded sharply higher following today’s monthly unemployment and September payroll figures. Unemployment was steady, while payroll numbers were about double expectations. The initial reactions weighed heavily on the grain markets at the 8:30 open. Although the financial markets relaxed through the day, the grain markets remained under pressure.

  • To see the current 5 day Precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day, and 8–14-day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from NOAA, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The 2023 growing season has been marked with many challenges that whipsawed the market up and down in a 140-cent range. And while we are at the time of year when lows are often made, the market is still subject to many unforeseen influences that can move prices higher, like in 2020 when the market went on to test contract highs and beyond after hitting market lows before harvest. For now, after locking in gains from previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until later in the year (when markets tend to strengthen) before considering suggesting any additional sales. Insider is also monitoring the market for any re-ownership opportunities, should it experience an extended rally.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of corn recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/2 Call/2 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • Grain markets traded lower on the session, pressuring corn futures to 4-5 cent losses as prices pulled back from the $5.00 a bushel resistance level. December corn lost 5 ½ cents on the day, but remained 15 ¼ cents higher on the week, posting its highest weekly close since August.

  • Grain markets were pressured by a surge higher in the U.S. dollar and interest rates after the September Jobs report was released, showing better job growth than expected. This could possibly lead to longer-term interest rate hikes and tighter monetary policy.

  • U.S. harvest was 23% complete last week, and the pace should reflect strong progress this week. The forecast still looks friendly overall to keep harvest moving along at a good pace. Harvest pressure will limit the corn market as fresh supplies pressure basis and the cash market. The National Corn Index is trading nearly 23 cents under the December futures price.

  • The recent drop in crude oil and gasoline prices have tightened ethanol margins. Ethanol production started out the marketing year relatively strong, but a tighter margin could slow that pace.

  • The corn market rally may still be limited, as premiums for Brazilian corn have slipped recently, still keeping Brazilian corn cheaper than U.S. bushels on the export market. As planting is beginning for this year’s South American corn, some weather issues may pose more challenging conditions in portions of Argentina and Brazil, which could limit production.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, with some minor short covering lifting prices in recent days. Resistance remains above the market between 490 – 516, and support below the market may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions, and export sales. While export demand currently lags last year’s numbers, ending stocks are also currently estimated at a tight 220 million bushels. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks. 

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop. Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for 2024 soybeans, and while it may be toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales, Insider will keep an eye out for any upside opportunities, should the market experience an extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of soybean recommendations:
• 2023: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • Soybeans opened the day higher, but ended with a lower close following the Jobs report this morning, which saw higher employment growth than expected and sparked concerns that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates higher for a longer period. Soybean meal ended lower and soybean oil was higher.

  • For the week, November soybeans lost 9 cents, December meal lost 9.10 dollars, and December soybean oil lost 0.48 cents. As soy products fall, crush margins have fallen as well and given up some incentive for soybean processors to crush beans in large numbers.

  • Prices found support yesterday after the export sales report showed better numbers than expected, and soybean meal exports were reportedly up 32% from a year ago, with limited Argentinian supplies following their drought. Argentina remains in drought conditions, which will be something to pay attention to as they begin planting.

  • The northern region of Brazil is currently too dry, but in the South, it is far too wet to plant with floods occurring and 4 to 9 inches of rain forecast over the next 10 days. With U.S. ending stocks slated to be tight, any weather impact on Brazil’s soybean crop could be friendly for prices.

Above: The soybean market remains in a downtrend and is oversold, which is supportive if prices turn back higher.  Resistance above the market lies between 1285 – 1323. Initial support to the downside lies near 1238 – 1214, with further key support down near 1181.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The Labor Department’s report indicated that 336,000 jobs were added in the month of September, which exceeded expectations and caused an increase in the U.S. Dollar Index. That may have opened the floodgates for lower wheat, even though the index was actually negative on the day at the grain market close.

  • More details have emerged about yesterday’s reports of a ship hitting a Russian mine. Reportedly, it was a Turkish cargo ship called the Kafkametler that struck a mine in the Black Sea. Damage was minor and the crew was safe. The location of the mine was near Romania, and according to one Ukrainian official, it may have been there from last year (not a new mine placed by Russia). However, there are concerns that Russia could plant their own mines to target cargo ships.

  • Ukraine’s grain harvest as of October 6th is 22% above last year, at 32.3 mmt of grain collected. Of that total, 22.2 mmt is wheat which represents a 16% year on year increase.

  • Australia had the driest September on record with at, or near, record temperatures across the country. Their wheat crop production is likely to suffer greatly, especially because the El Nino pattern is expected to keep them warm and dry.

  • Wheat is also struggling in Argentina. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, 33% of their wheat crop is poor to very poor, up from 27% last week. Some southern areas did receive rain that is certainly welcomed, but more widespread coverage will be needed.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market in recent weeks has been sensitive to slow export demand, weather, and headlines regarding the Black Sea region. Now with harvest behind us, and new crop planting upon us, markets can still change suddenly due to El Nino and unforeseen geopolitical events, even though export demand remains weak. Following the recent recommendation to make an additional sale for the 2023 crop, Insider will continue to watch for any violations of support while also looking for prices to reach 650 – 700 before suggesting any further sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Chicago wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Following the September 29 Grain Stocks report, the December contract broke out of its previous range to the downside and has since rallied back. That previous range of 570 – 618 is an area of resistance which the market will need more bullish input to rally through.  If it cannot, support below the market resides between 533 – 524.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 750 – 800 before considering any additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of K.C. wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since the beginning of September, the market has drifted sideways to lower. The recent breakout to the downside has Dec. K.C. wheat looking toward 630 and 575 for the next levels of support, while nearby resistance on the upside rests between 710 – 722.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices begin to improve, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since early September, Dec Minneapolis wheat has been largely rangebound, and the recent breakout to the downside on September 29 has the market poised to test support near the May ’21 low of 665. If prices turn higher, initial resistance may be found between 745 – 760.

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Midday Update: October 6, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
DEC ’23 494 -3.5
MAR ’24 508.75 -3.5
DEC ’24 519.5 -2
Soybeans
NOV ’23 1270 -10.75
JAN ’24 1288 -10.5
NOV ’24 1255.25 -6
Chicago Wheat
DEC ’23 574 -4.25
MAR ’24 602.5 -4.5
JUL ’24 637.5 -4.25
K.C. Wheat
DEC ’23 681 -9.5
MAR ’24 690 -7.75
JUL ’24 698.75 -7
Mpls Wheat
DEC ’23 726 -5.5
MAR ’24 751 -4.25
SEP ’24 785 -5
S&P 500
DEC ’23 4295.5 4.75
Crude Oil
DEC ’23 80.85 0.04
Gold
DEC ’23 1843.2 11.4

  • Corn is trading lower today after a higher open with pressure coming from the jobs report that showed a higher-than-expected jump. This report caused the US Dollar Index to increase and equities to fall.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report showing 71.5 mb of corn sold was encouraging and caused December corn to reach its highest levels in one month.

  • Tensions have heightened further between Russia and Ukraine with Russia attacking the port of Odesa and the interior village of Hroza, killing dozens. Ukrainian exports are down 28% from a year ago with shipping a difficult task.

  • In South America, both Argentina and northern Brazil are too dry for planting, while southern Brazil is dealing with flooding. 14% of the corn crop in Argentina is planted.

  • Soybeans are trading lower following a higher open, along with both corn and wheat. The higher-than-expected jobs number caused concerns that the Federal Reserve will increase rates again.

  • Soybean meal is lower today, while soybean oil is higher, but both products have sold off significantly over the past few weeks, causing crush margins to fall.

  • Soybean export demand has been hampered by cheaper Brazilian offers, but domestically demand has been firm with record renewable biodiesel production.

  • Barge shipments down the Mississippi River increased last week with barge rates declining, and soybean shipments were up 30.6% week over week.

  • Wheat prices were sent lower this morning after the Labor Department revealed that 336,000 jobs were added in September, above expectations. This caused the US dollar to rise, and wheat is sensitive to moves in the dollar.

  • Ukraine is still exporting grain through their own shipping corridor, but Russia appears to be getting more aggressive with reports of mines in the region, and a vessel from Turkey reportedly hitting one of those mines.

  • The dry weather patterns in Argentina and Australia may significantly impact their wheat crops, and Ukraine is talking about planting less wheat this season, so global supply may drop slightly.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report was average at just 10 mb, but the fact that China purchased 8.1 mb shows that the US may be getting closer to competitiveness globally.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: October 6, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 496.75 -0.75
MAR ’24 511.75 -0.5
DEC ’24 521.25 -0.25

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1284.75 4
JAN ’24 1302.5 4
NOV ’24 1265.25 4

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 575.75 -2.5
MAR ’24 604 -3
JUL ’24 638.75 -3

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 688.75 -1.75
MAR ’24 697 -0.75
JUL ’24 701.5 -4.25

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 729.5 -2
MAR ’24 754 -1.25
SEP ’24 790 14

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4303 12.25

Crude Oil

DEC ’23 80.92 0.11

Gold

DEC ’23 1835.7 3.9

  • Corn is trading slightly higher to begin the day after posting solid gains at yesterday’s close reaching a one-month high of $4.97-1/2 for December.

  • Yesterday, the USDA reported good export sales of corn in the amount of 71.5 mb for both 23/24 and 24/25 with Mexico picking up the bulk of the business.

  • In South America, both Argentina and northern Brazil are too dry for planting while southern Brazil is dealing with flooding. 14% of the corn crop in Argentina is planted.

  • In the US, corn crops experiencing moderate to intense drought rose by one point from last week to 59%.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning along with both soybean meal and oil. November beans tested support on Tuesday and have closed higher each day after that.

  • The decline in prices of soy products has put pressure on soybeans and yesterday, December soybean oil made a new three-month low. This comes after the contract had 675 deliveries.

  • Prices found support yesterday after the export sales report showed better numbers than expected, and soybean meal exports were reportedly up 32% from a year ago with limited Argentinian supplies.

  • Barge shipments down the Mississippi River increased last week with barge rates declining, and soybean shipments were up 30.6% week over week.

  • Wheat is trading slightly higher along with the rest of the grain complex this morning as the momentum from yesterday’s higher closes carries into today.

  • Yesterday, there were some escalations in Ukraine with fresh Russian drone attack on two port cities, and news of a cargo ship registered to Turkey hit a mine in the Black Sea near Romania’s coast.

  • The dry weather patterns in Argentina and Australia may significantly impact their wheat crops, and Ukraine is talking about planting less wheat this season, so global supply may drop slightly.

  • Russia has raised their 2023 grain harvest forecast to 135 mmt with the wheat crop now expected at 90 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Grain Market Insider: October 5, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Front month corn futures pushed through upside resistance today to close at their highest level since early August. Strong weekly export sales and a push higher in wheat prices aided the rally.

  • After trading lower early in the day, soybeans ended the session higher on South American weather worries and strength from both corn and wheat.

  • Soybean meal futures, which remain technically oversold, rallied higher today after testing support. Soybean oil did not join rally in soybeans and soybean meal, but rather followed crude oil lower yet again today.

  • Wheat futures led the push higher in grains today, closing up double digits across all three classes. Heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine, as well as wheats’ technically oversold condition are attributed to today’s rally.  

  • To see the current 8–14-day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from NOAA, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The 2023 growing season has been marked with many challenges that whipsawed the market up and down in a 140-cent range. And while we are at the time of year when lows are often made, the market is still subject to many unforeseen influences that can move prices higher, like in 2020 when the market went on to test contract highs and beyond after hitting market lows before harvest. For now, after locking in gains from previously recommended purchased 580 puts, Insider is content to wait until later in the year (when markets tend to strengthen) before considering suggesting any additional sales. Insider is also monitoring the market for any re-ownership opportunities, should it experience an extended rally.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Like the 2023 corn market, prices for the 2024 crop have been dominated by volatility from slow exports and adverse growing conditions which led to a near 80 cent trading range during the summer months. Plenty of time remains to market the crop, and while demand continues to be slow, many uncertainties remain that can move prices higher. After recommending an additional sale for the 2024 crop, Insider may not consider suggesting any further sales until later this winter or possibly even spring. We will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks.  

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement. 

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of corn recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/2 Call/2 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • December corn futures pushed through resistance at the $4.90 levels and saw a rounds of short covering and technical buying to post the contracts highest daily close since Aug 8, gaining 11 ½ cents on the day.

  • Weekly export sales of corn were strong at 1.82 mmt (71.5 mb) of old crop and 611,400 mt (24.1 mb) of new. Mexico was the largest buyer of U.S. corn last week, which was expected. China did step into the corn market with a small purchase (5.5 mb) of U.S. corn.

  • Export shipments were 24.1 mb last week, which was below the pace needed to reach USDA export targets. Corn sales now total 556 mb for 2023-24, up 9% from last year.

  • U.S. harvest was 23% complete last week, and pace should continue to be firm this week. The forecast still looks overall friendly to keep harvest moving along at a good pace. Harvest pressure will limit the corn market as fresh supplies pressure the basis and the cash market.

  • The corn market rally may still be limited as premiums for Brazilian corn have slipped recently, keeping Brazilian corn still cheaper than U.S. bushels on the export market. Brazilian corn exports for 2023 through September are on record pace, and October exports are expected to reach another record near 8.9 MMT.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, with some minor short covering lifting prices in recent days. Resistance remains above the market between 490 – 516, and support below the market may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. This season the market has experienced a lot of volatility, not only from USDA reports but also from changing weather patterns, crop conditions, and export sales. While export demand currently lags last year’s numbers, ending stocks are also currently estimated at a tight 220 million bushels. For now, Insider may not consider suggesting any additional sales until after harvest. Although, we will continue to monitor the market for any upside opportunities in the coming weeks. 

  • No action is recommended for 2024 crop. Grain Market Insider continues to monitor any developments for 2024 soybeans, and while it may be toward year’s end before we will consider recommending any 2024 crop sales, Insider will keep an eye out for any upside opportunities, should the market experience an extended rally.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of soybean recommendations:
• 2023: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • Soybeans ended the day higher following a lower open and continued to hold above support at the 12.56 level. Technically, soybeans are oversold and weather concerns in South America could push prices higher. Soybean meal ended higher, while soybean oil closed lower.

  • A week from today is the October WASDE report and it is possible that soybean production gets increased based off early yield estimates, which may be higher than expected. Even with a slight increase in production, stocks will be very tight, and Brazil may be facing some weather troubles due to the El Nino pattern occurring.

  • The northern region of Brazil is currently too dry, but in the South, it is far too wet to plant with floods occurring and 4 to 9 inches of rain forecast over the next 10 days. With US ending stocks slated to be so tight, any weather impact on Brazil’s soybean crop could be very friendly for prices.

  • Export sales for soybeans were decent with the USDA reporting increases of 29.7 mb for 23/24. Last week’s export shipments of 24.7 mb were below the 35.4 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. Primary destinations were China, Spain, and Bangladesh.

Above: The soybean market remains in a downtrend and is oversold, which is supportive if prices turn back higher.  Resistance above the market lies between 1285 – 1323. Initial support to the downside lies near 1238 – 1214, with further key support down near 1181.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The USDA reported an increase of 10.0 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24. Shipments last week at 14.3 mb were above the 13.9 mb pace necessary to meet the 700 mb export goal. However, total export commitments at 347 mb are down 14% from last year.

  • The jump in wheat today was likely both technical and fundamental in nature. From the technical perspective, wheat was oversold and due for a correction to the upside. That may have been initiated on the fundamental side by more war premium being added into the marketplace. A Russian missile attack was said to have killed 49 civilians; additionally, there are reports that a vessel on the way to Ukraine struck a sea mine, but this is currently unconfirmed.

  • On top of the above news, there is also talk of UK intelligence warning that Russia may be planting additional mines, meant to target civilian vessels. Meanwhile, there are reports that Germany will send air defenses to Ukraine to thwart Russian attacks on grain shipments.

  • Also helping wheat today were higher Matif futures, and a lower US Dollar Index. As of this writing, the index is headed for a second consecutive lower close. Above 106 currently, it does remain at a relatively high level, but if the dollar continues to decline, it should ease pressure on US exports.

  • Western Argentina and Australia remain too dry. Rains last week in Argentina were not enough to replenish soil moisture levels. According to the Rosario Exchange, they need about 15-20 milliliters of rain to stabilize the crop, but they are expected to get less than 10 ml over the next several days (according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange).

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The wheat market in recent weeks has been sensitive to slow export demand, weather, and headlines regarding the Black Sea region. Now with harvest behind us, and new crop planting upon us, markets can still change suddenly due to El Nino and unforeseen geopolitical events, even though export demand remains weak. Following the recent recommendation to make an additional sale for the 2023 crop, Insider will continue to watch for any violations of support while also looking for prices to reach 650 – 700 before suggesting any further sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. Plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop with many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, like the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, war in the Black Sea and production concerns in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Chicago wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Chicago wheat broke out of its recent range to the downside following the Sept. 29 Grain Stocks report. Nearby support may be found between 524 – 533, while initial resistance above the market is near the low of the previous range, around 570, with heavier resistance near 618.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May, the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 750 – 800 before considering any additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of K.C. wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since the beginning of September, the market has drifted sideways to lower. The recent breakout to the downside has Dec. K.C. wheat looking toward 630 and 575 for the next levels of support, while nearby resistance on the upside rests between 710 – 722.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices begin to improve, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices. Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. While war persists in the Black Sea region, production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino, and the world stocks to use ratio remains at an 8-year low. There are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 800.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since early September, Dec Minneapolis wheat has been largely rangebound, and the recent breakout to the downside on September 29 has the market poised to test support near the May ’21 low of 665. If prices turn higher, initial resistance may be found between 745 – 760.

Other Charts / Weather