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Opening Update: October 16, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 493.5 0.25
MAR ’24 508.75 0.25
DEC ’24 520.5 -0.75

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1282.5 2.25
JAN ’24 1302.25 2.25
NOV ’24 1251.25 -0.5

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 587.5 7.75
MAR ’24 613.25 7
JUL ’24 640.25 3.5

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 672.75 3.75
MAR ’24 682.5 4
JUL ’24 691 2.75

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 725.25 3.25
MAR ’24 749 3
SEP ’24 778.75 -3

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4369.75 12.5

Crude Oil

DEC ’23 86.45 0.1

Gold

DEC ’23 1928.3 -13.2

  • Corn is starting off the week relatively unchanged as the December contract struggles to break 5 dollars amid producer selling.

  • Last week’s WASDE report was friendly with a national yield guess of 173.0 bpa. Some producers reported better than expected yields, but original expectations likely weren’t that good.

  • In Brazil, a severe drought is disrupting barge traffic on a river in the Amazon, and barges are having to reduce their loads by as much as 50% to navigate safely in the shallow waters.

  • Non-commercials began to unwind part of their net short position last week buying back 46,742 contracts and reducing their short position to 112,691 contracts. 

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning but have backed off a few cents from their overnight highs. Soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is higher thanks to higher palm oil.

  • US September soybean crush is expected near 160.5 mb which would be 1.5% higher compared to September of last year, but 0.6% lower than a month ago.

  • Brazilian farmers have planted 17.35% of the 23/24 soybean area which compares with 22.60% at this time last year. Conditions are very dry in northern Brazil which is likely causing delays.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds whittling away at their long position by selling 2,831 contracts and leaving them net long just 2,170 contracts.

  • Wheat is trading higher this morning with Chicago leading the way with gains amid global weather issues in major wheat producing countries.

  • Russia has reportedly destroyed 300,000 tons of grain since July between attacks on ships and ports. Despite Russia backing out of the grain deal, Ukraine is still shipping out grains via their own corridor.

  • Heavy rains in China are expected to disrupt wheat planting over the next 10 days. This comes as Australia and Argentina, two large exporters, deal with severe dryness.

  • Last Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials adding to their short position by selling 5,547 contracts and increasing their net short position to 104,335 contracts, unusually large for this time of year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Grain Market Insider: October 13, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • The failure to trade above 500 resistance in the December corn contract likely led to profit taking from yesterday’s gains, despite decent export sales that put the total commitments up 14% over last year, but still behind the USDA’s forecast of a 22% increase.

  • Soybean oil traded sharply higher on higher crude oil that showed 5.6% gains from greater Middle East uncertainty. While the strength in bean oil led to a 14 ½ cent gain in December Board crush margins, it didn’t spill over to support meal or soybeans, which succumbed to profit taking from yesterday’s gains and ahead of any potential headline risk over the coming weekend.

  • The wheat complex closed the day mixed with Chicago higher, while both Minneapolis and KC finished lower. With a reasonably large short fund position, Chicago contracts may be seeing short covering ahead of potential headline risk over the weekend, whereas Minneapolis and KC likely saw profit taking in the wake of Thursday’s strong performance off of neutral to bearish domestic USDA supply and demand numbers.

  • To see the current U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast and 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from the NWS and NOAA, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. In the last couple weeks Dec ’23 corn has seen a bump from a low of 467 ¾ to a high of 499. Since mid-August, the psychological 500 level has served as market resistance on the front month. Without any more bullish input, the market remains at risk of sideways to lower price action. In years without bullish fundamental tailwinds at this time of year, the worst case scenarios have seen prices trend slowly lower into anywhere from late November to early January. If you’re new to Grain Market Insider and were not a subscriber during this summer’s rally, Grain Market Insider did recommend making sales into that rally when Dec ’23 was around 624. So for now, the thought process is to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter, with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by early winter, then Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until next spring. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall and must move them, consider protecting those sold bushels with either July or September ’24 call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. The Dec ’24 contract has held up better than Dec ’23 as bear spreading over the last several months has brought increased buying interest into Dec ’24 and other further out contract months. Back in late July, the Dec ’23 contract traded up to a 25-cent premium over Dec ’24. Now, Dec ’24 holds a 28-cent premium over Dec ’23. This bear spreading has the Dec ’24 price up about 28 cents from its year-to-date low. The risk for 2024 prices is the same as for 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a lower trend without further bullish input. Grain Market Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Grain Market Insider recommended buying 560 and 610 Dec ’23 call options ahead of the summer rally, and having those in place, helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700 or 800 that the call options would protect those sold bushels.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of corn recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/2 Call/2 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • The corn market saw some end-of-the-week profit taking, as it faded off the top end of the Thursday price range. December corn closed 2 ¾ cents lower but finished the week with a small 1 ¼ cent gain.

  • The USDA released weekly export sales on Friday morning. Corn sales last week were above expectations at 910,000 mt (35.8 mb) and 87,400 mt (3.4 mb) for 2024-25. Total sales commitments for 23/24 are at 602 mb, up 14% from last year’s levels, but still behind the pace needed to reach the USDA export target of 2.025 billion bushels.

  • A strong move higher in crude oil prices helped limit corn selling pressure. Ethanol margins remain positive and have been helping support the corn market.

  • On Thursday, the USDA lowered expected corn yield to 173.0 bushels/acre and reduced corn carryout 2.111 billion bushels for the 23/24 marketing year. The friendly report has corn prices challenging resistance over top prices at 498 ¾. This is a key technical barrier and if broken could allow prices to push higher on short covering.

  • Harvest pressure limits the market’s upside. Rainfall across the Corn Belt on Friday likely limited harvest progress on Friday. Last week, the corn harvest was 34% complete, and that number should push higher with a strong harvest pace in the front half of the week. The next harvest pace number will be released in Monday’s USDA Crop Progress report.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, with some minor short covering lifting prices in recent days. Resistance remains between 490 – 516, with initial support between 475 – 480 and then near 460.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. The Nov ’23 contract has been finding buying interest around the June 2023 low of 1256 ¾, and since the beginning of October, it has also traded largely between 1260 and 1280. The close over 1287 ¼ on October 12 could be a signal that a harvest/fall low is in. The bigger picture, since May 2023, Nov ’23 has traded in a range from 1256 ¾ on the downside to 1435 on the topside. Last summer, Grain Market Insider did make two sales recommendations in the 1310 – 1360 price window versus Nov ’23. Given that those sales recommendations were made and given that now is not the time of year to be making many sales, if any, Grain Market Insider is content to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter. The focus for strategy right now is to be on the lookout for any call option buying opportunities. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall, consider protecting any sold bushels with July or Aug ’24 call options.

  • No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Nov ’24 continues to trade at a discount to Nov ’23. That discount was over 90 cents in late summer yet has stabilized lately to around the 10-20 cent range.  Since July, the Nov ’24 contract has largely traded between 1250 and 1320, so this contract is currently testing the bottom end of that range. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be early winter at the soonest. Currently, Grain Market Insider’s focus is also on watching for any opportunities to recommend buying call options.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of soybean recommendations:
• 2023: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • Soybeans ended the day lower following a higher start due to likely end-of-week profit taking and some weakness in soybean meal. Soybean oil closed higher thanks to big gains in crude oil. For the week, November soybeans gained 14-1/4 cents, December meal gained 17.90, and soybean oil lost 0.97.

  • The big bullish news of the week was the WASDE report which saw the national yield at just 49.6 bpa, down from the USDA’s last guess of 50.1 bpa. Ending stocks remained at a very tight 220 mb, and world ending stocks fell much further than anticipated. If exports increase through the end of the year, the soybean market could be poised to rally.

  • Today’s export sales report was very supportive, with soybean sales at 1.057 mmt, above the upper end of trade estimates, and total soy exports at 1.44 mmt. In addition, daily sales totaling 117,300 mt of soybeans were reported for delivery to unknown destinations for 23/24, and 100,000 mt of soybean cake and meal were reported for delivery to unknown destinations for 23/24.

  • With soybeans out of the PNW becoming more competitive, China appears to have stepped up its U.S. purchases. Offers out of the PNW are reportedly 30 cents cheaper than Brazilian offers for November and with Brazil’s soybean supplies running low, now is the window for the U.S. to increase exports. 

Above: October 12 soybeans were shocked higher and traded into the resistance area of 1285 – 1323. If the market can maintain upward momentum, it would be poised to make a run to test mid-September prices around 1370. Otherwise, initial support below the market remains near 1250, with key support coming in between 1180 – 1200.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Overall wheat had a mixed close today. Chicago futures finished higher alongside Matif wheat, however, Minneapolis and KC contracts posted losses. This may be a delayed reaction to yesterday’s report which wasn’t necessarily bullish for wheat on the U.S. numbers alone. However, the reduction in global production is lending a helping hand to the market.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 24.0 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24, but last week’s shipments at 12.6 mb were behind the 13.8 mb per week pace needed to meet the USDA’s 23/24 export goal of 700 mb.

  • This morning, private exporters reported sales of 181,000 mt of U.S. SRW wheat for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year. This is the second recent sale to China, suggesting that U.S. wheat has become more competitive on the global market.

  • The USDA left the Russian wheat crop unchanged at 85 mmt despite some higher private estimates, and they also kept Argentina’s production unchanged at 16.5 mmt in the face of a 14.8 mmt estimate by the Rosario Grain Exchange. This is also despite the growing concern over drought in that region. Interestingly, the USDA did reduce Australia’s crop for the same reason – drought.

  • December Chicago wheat today closed above the 21-day moving average for the first time since the end of July. From a technical perspective, this may indicate that wheat has a near-term bottom in place.

  • Ukraine’s grain harvest is said to have reached 31% complete with 35.6 mmt of grain collected. Of that total, 22.2 mmt is said to be wheat. Elsewhere, the French soft wheat crop is said to be 17% planted as of October 9th, up from 3% last week, but behind last year’s pace of 19%.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The Dec ’23 contract has been in a downtrend since making highs in late July, but has found support near 541 following the September 29 Production report and has since been rangebound between 541 and 581 ½. With weak U.S. export demand driven by cheap Russian exports being the dominant headwind, it appears that prices may be finding value in the current trading range. If a bullish catalyst were to enter the market and push prices over 616, it may signal that a fall low is in place, which would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into the winter months. If you are a newer subscriber, Grain Market Insider made sales recommendations in the late June rally around 720, and again earlier this fall near 604. With those two sales, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, with an eye on considering additional sales in the 600 – 650 range. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Currently, July ’24 is trading at a 68-cent premium to the Dec ’23 contract as bear spreading, due to fund positioning and weak fundamentals, has driven the Dec ’23 contract closer to 550, while the July ’24 contract remains near 625. The risk for the July ’24 contract remains the same as for Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for this possibility, and back in June, Grain Market Insider recommended two separate sales that averaged about 720 to take advantage of the brief upswing. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward June’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted a year from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Chicago wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: December wheat has been consolidating since the break on September 29. The market’s previous range of 570 – 618 is an area of resistance which will need more bullish input to rally through. If the market retreats lower, support below the market resides between 540 – 533.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 K.C. wheat crop. The Dec ’23 contract has been in a downtrend since making highs in late July and continues to search for support while trading about 40 cents off the contract lows from July ’21.  With weak U.S. export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, being the dominant headwind, the market is in need of bullish input to stabilize and rally prices back higher. If a bullish catalyst were to enter the market and push prices towards 750 it may signal that a fall low is in place, which would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into winter and early spring. Earlier this year, Grain Market Insider made a sales recommendation in the late May rally around 1170. With that sale, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, with an eye on considering additional sales north of 700, and again around 750 – 800.  If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. Currently, July ’24 is trading at an 18-cent premium to the Dec ’23 contract, up from a 60-cent discount last July, as bear spreading due to weak fundamentals has driven the Dec ’23 contract closer to its contract lows, while the July ’24 contract remains more elevated as it tests Feb ’22 lows. The risk for the July ’24 contract is much like that for Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode, and in mid-August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 660 puts to prepare for this possibility. Also, back in July, Grain Market Insider recommended a sale near 800 to take advantage of elevated prices before they eroded further. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward 800, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 K.C. Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted a year from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of K.C. wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since the end of September, K.C. wheat has been consolidating with initial support just below the market near the September 12 low of 655. If the market retreats lower and breaks through 655, the next levels of support come in around 630 and 575. Initial resistance to the upside may be found around 700 and again near 722.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. The Dec ’23 contract has been in a downtrend since making highs in late July and continues to search for support while showing signs of being oversold. With weak U.S. export demand driven by cheap Russian exports being the dominant headwind, the market is in need of bullish input to stabilize and rally prices back higher. If a bullish catalyst were to enter the market and push prices towards 800, it may signal that a fall low is in place, which would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into winter. Earlier this year, Grain Market Insider made a sales recommendation during the July rally near 820. With that sale, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter with an eye on considering additional sales around 750 – 800, and again north of 825. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat.  In the last three months, the Sep ’24 contract has gone from a 60 – 80 discount to Dec ’23, to a nearly 60-cent premium. Weak fundamentals led bear spreading to drive Dec ’23 in search of new contract lows, while Sep ’24 remains nearly 30 cents off its low from last June. The risk for the Sep ’24 contract is much like that of Dec ’23.  The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. In mid-August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July K.C. 660 puts (for their greater liquidity, and correlation to Minneapolis pricing) to prepare for this possibility, and back in July, Grain Market Insider recommended a sale near 815 to take advantage of elevated prices. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward 800, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further. Grain Market Insider will then be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: For much of September, December Minneapolis wheat was rangebound, and the breakout to the downside on September 29 set the market up to test support near 665, the May ’21 low. Since then, the market has been consolidating, and while support below the market remains near 665, initial support may also be found near 700. If prices turn higher, initial resistance remains between 745 – 760.

Other Charts / Weather

U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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Midday Update: October 13, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
DEC ’23 492.5 -3.5
MAR ’24 508 -3.5
DEC ’24 520.25 -2.5
Soybeans
NOV ’23 1277.25 -12.75
JAN ’24 1296.75 -12
NOV ’24 1248.5 -11.25
Chicago Wheat
DEC ’23 579 7.5
MAR ’24 606 4.5
JUL ’24 636.25 0
K.C. Wheat
DEC ’23 675.5 0.5
MAR ’24 684.5 0.5
JUL ’24 694 0.5
Mpls Wheat
DEC ’23 724.25 0.75
MAR ’24 749 1.75
SEP ’24 781 -0.75
S&P 500
DEC ’23 4367.5 -13
Crude Oil
DEC ’23 85.08 3.28
Gold
DEC ’23 1933.3 50.3

  • The USDA reported an increase of 35.8 mb of corn export sales for 23/24 and an increase of 3.4 mb for 24/25. Shipments last week of 32 mb were behind the 40 mb pace needed per week to meet the USDA’s goal of 2.025 bb.

  • In yesterday’s report, the USDA kept Chinese corn production unchanged at 277 mmt. This is lower than estimates from both the U.S. ag attaché as well as China’s ag minister. Therefore, the USDA’s world corn production number could be too low currently because China’s production could eventually be revised higher.

  • The war in Israel has resulted in increased tensions globally as Hamas is encouraging Jihad today. This has caused fears of potential new terrorist attacks at home and abroad. The uncertainty in the Middle East may also be contributing to the choppy crude oil market due to uncertainty about production in that part of the world. As of writing, it seems to have a bullish influence with crude up over $3 per barrel; if it continues higher it may provide support for ethanol and biofuels.

  • Despite some rain in the upper Midwest, most of the U.S. is dry. Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts have mainly normal temperatures with normal to below normal rainfall.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 38.8 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24. Shipments last week of 52.8 mb were above the 34.9 mb pace needed per week to meet the USDA’s goal of 1.755 bb.

  • Private exporters reported sales of 117,300 mt of soybeans and 100,000 mt of soybean cake and meal for delivery to unknown during the 23/24 marketing year.

  • Soybeans had a strong close yesterday after some bullish surprises on the USDA report. However, they are trading lower at midday today. The 21-day moving average may be keeping futures in check; they have traded below that average since mid-September. Yesterday, November soybeans did break through but closed below that level (about 12.90) and are below it again this morning.

  • The USDA did increase biofuel demand yesterday. Some analysts believe that down the road, biofuel demand will exceed food use.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 24.0 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24. Shipments last week of 12.6 mb were behind the 13.8 mb pace needed per week to meet the USDA’s goal of 700 mb.

  • Private exporters reported sales of 181,000 mt of SRW wheat for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year.

  • The USDA kept their estimate of Russian wheat production unchanged at 85 mb. Some private estimates think this is too low, which could mean that global production will be revised higher on a later report.

  • The USDA did lower the Australian wheat crop, however, they kept Argentinian and European production unchanged.

  • Despite no change from the USDA at 16.5 mmt, the Rosario Exchange did recently lower Argentina’s wheat production estimate to 14.8 mmt due to the expanding drought conditions.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: October 13, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 497.25 1.25
MAR ’24 512.75 1.25
DEC ’24 523.75 1

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1295.75 5.75
JAN ’24 1315.5 6.75
NOV ’24 1260.5 0.75

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 579.5 8
MAR ’24 608.25 6.75
JUL ’24 641.25 5

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 682.5 7.5
MAR ’24 691.75 7.75
JUL ’24 700 6.5

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 731 7.5
MAR ’24 755 7.75
SEP ’24 785 3.25

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4375 -5.5

Crude Oil

DEC ’23 84.77 2.97

Gold

DEC ’23 1905.1 22.1

  • Corn is starting the day off higher on the heels of yesterday’s friendly WASDE report and has now posted nearly a 30 cent gain since its low on September 19th.

  • There have been continued reports of delayed harvest work as rain moves across a good portion of the Midwest, likely pushing the work to next week.

  • Yesterday’s WASDE report called corn yields at 173 bpa, below expectations, but total production was called near a record of 15.064 bb.

  • The South American weather pattern is still causing dryness in Argentina and northern Brazil while southern Brazil receives too much rain, and this could impact their production.

  • Soybeans are continuing to trade higher following yesterday’s much needed bullish WASDE report and with help from gains in both soybean meal and oil.

  • Yesterday’s report called soybean yields at 49.6 bpa, below expectations and last month’s estimate of 50.1 bpa, and ending stocks were kept at 220 mb, the lowest levels in 8 years. World ending stocks were reduced.

  • In Paraguay, planting is nearly 60% complete, but rain fall has been light and uneven and producers are waiting for more moisture before they finish planting.

  • Water levels on the Mississippi River have improved causing grain shipments to rise and barge rates to fall. Soybean shipments are up 53.1% week over week.

  • Wheat is continuing its higher trade from yesterday with support from corn and soybeans as the report yesterday was not particularly bullish for wheat.

  • Yesterday, the USDA said that US ending stocks increased from 615 mb to 670 mb due to a higher production estimate. Feed demand was increased by 30 mb to 120 mb.

  • With Australia’s dry weather, the USDA reduced the size of their wheat crop by 1.5 mmt to 24.8 mmt, down 38% from last year’s crop.

  • Ukraine’s grain harvest has advanced 31% from last year and is now at 35.6 mmt for the season starting July 1st.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Grain Market Insider: October 12, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Friendly supply and demand numbers from today’s USDA WASDE report, a reported sale of almost 125,000 mt of corn to Guatemala, and carryover strength from soybeans lifted corn to within 1 ¼ cents of 500, before it closed 8 cents higher on the day.

  • A surprise move, from the USDA that kept U.S. soybean ending stocks unchanged from last month, where a 13 mb increase was expected, and an additional sale of 295,000 mt to unknown destinations fueled the fire for a 37-cent rally in November soybeans.

  • Both soybean meal and oil were strong performers today, lending additional support to soybeans. The USDA left meal ending stocks unchanged from last month, but increased exports by 200,000 tons, while bean oil ending stocks were reduced by 85 mil lbs.

  • Spillover strength from sharply higher soybeans, and higher corn, supported all three wheat classes to close near the top of their respective ranges despite a neutral to bearish U.S. supply and demand update from the USDA.

  • To see the current U.S. 5-day precipitation forecast and 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks from the NWS and NOAA, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The last couple weeks Dec ’23 corn has seen a bump from a low of 467.75 to a high last week of 499.00. Since mid-August, the psychological 500.00 level has served as market resistance on the front month. Without any bullish catalyst from the coming USDA Supply and Demand report this Thursday, the market remains at risk of sideways to lower price action. In years without bullish fundamental tailwinds at this time of year, the worst case scenarios have seen prices trend slowly lower into anywhere from late November to early January. If you’re new to Insider and were not a subscriber during this summer’s rally, Insider did recommend making sales into that summer rally when Dec ’23 was around 624.00, so for now the thought process is to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter, with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by early winter, then Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until next spring. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall and must move them, consider re-owning those bushels with either July or September ’24 call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. The Dec ’24 contract has held up better than Dec ’23 as bear spreading over the last several months has brought increased buying interest into Dec ’24 and other further out contract months. Back in late July, the Dec ’23 contract traded up to a 25-cent premium over Dec ’24. Now Dec ’24 holds a 28-cent premium over Dec ’23. This bear spreading has the Dec ’24 price up about 28 cents from its year-to-date low. The risk for 2024 prices is the same as 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a lower trend without a bullish catalyst on this Thursday’s Supply and Demand report. Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Insider recommended buying 560 and 610 Dec ’23 call options ahead of the summer rally, and having those in place helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700.00 or 800.00 that the call options would protect those sold bushels. 

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of corn recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/2 Call/2 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • Corn futures used a friendly USDA report and a strong soybean market to post moderate gains on the session. December corn gained 8 cents to $4.96 but failed to push through overhead resistance at $4.98 ¾ from last week.

  • The USDA lowered expected corn yield to 173.0 bushels/acre, down 0.8 bushels from last month and below market expectations. Yield losses from last year were noted in many corn producing states, but Missouri (-12.4%), Minnesota (-8.2%) and Illinois (-6.5%) were key states impacted by this season’s overall hot and dry weather.

  • The reduced yield lowered overall production by 70 mb versus last month. The combination of lower production and lower than expected grain stocks on September 29th, lowered corn carryout to 2.111 bb. This was down 210 mb from last month and 27 mb below expectations. In order to reach the final carryout total, the USDA lowered feed usage and export demand by 25 MB for each category.

  • Corn harvest pace moved to 34% complete on the weekly crop progress numbers. The weather forecasts have kept the harvest pace strong for the first half of the week, but projected moisture in the 2nd half of the week, and into the weekend, may likely slow harvest progress going into next week for north and central areas of the Corn Belt

  • The USDA will release weekly export sales on Friday morning. Corn export sales for the last week are expected to range from 600,000 – 900,000 mt for new crop and up to 150,000 mt for the 24/25 marketing year. Weekly ethanol demand saw good production as corn used for ethanol grind is trending 5.1% above last year’s levels.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, with some minor short covering lifting prices in recent days. Resistance remains above the market between 490 – 516, and support below the market may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. The Nov ’23 contract has been finding buying interest around the June 2023 low of 1256.75 on the front month. Over the last seven trading days, Nov ’23 has traded largely between 1260.00 and 1280.00.  If there were to be a bullish catalyst from this Thursday’s USDA Supply and Demand report and Nov ’23 subsequently closed over 1287.25, that could signal the possibility that a harvest/fall low is in. Bigger picture, since May 2023, the front month contract has traded in a range from 1256.75 on the downside to 1435.00 on the topside. If you are a newer subscriber to Insider and were not with us back in the summer, Insider did make two sales recommendations in the 1310-1360 price window versus Nov ’23. Given those sales recommendations were already made and given that now is not the time of year to be making many if any sales, Insider is content to hold tight on next sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter. The focus for strategy right now is to be on the lookout for any call option buying opportunities. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall, consider buying those sold bushels back with July or August ’24 call options.

  • No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Nov ’24 continues to trade at a discount to Nov ’23. That discount was over 90 cents in late summer yet has stabilized lately around the 10-20 cent range.  Since July, the Nov ’24 contract has largely traded between 1250 and 1320, so this contract is currently testing the bottom end of that range. To date, Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be early winter at the soonest. Currently, Insider’s focus is also on watching for any opportunities to recommend buying call options.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of soybean recommendations:
• 2023: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • Soybeans posted a significantly higher close today, fueled by a bullish WASDE report and big gains in soybean meal. Soybean oil was higher too, but larger gains may have been held back by lower crude oil and continued weakness in world veg oil prices. November soybeans had a sharp reversal and closed at the 20-day moving average.

  • Today’s WASDE report featured several bullish surprises for soybeans. Yield was pegged at 49.6 bpa, below trade expectations and far below the most recent guess of 50.1 bpa. Production was lowered, and soybean ending stocks were held steady from September at a very tight 220 mb, below trade expectations. World ending stocks were also lowered to 115.62 mmt from last month’s guess of 119.25 mmt.

  • With U.S. soybean ending stocks so tight at 220 mb, further increases in demand could add more bullish fuel to the market. China has already been a more active buyer of soybeans out of the PNW as Brazilian supplies dwindle.

  • In South America, Argentina remains very dry from last season and this trend is not expected to improve. Northern Brazil is also too dry, while the southern regions are too wet, and this comes as planting is underway. It may be too early to focus on South American weather, but it will come into focus in the coming months and could drive prices higher if the weather pattern doesn’t improve.

Above: Since the end of August, the soybean market has been in a downtrend, and though it has been consolidating, it remains oversold, which can be supportive if prices turn higher. Initial support to the downside lies near the recent low of 1254, with further support between 1238 – 1214, while resistance above the market lies between 1285 – 1323. 

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Today’s USDA report elicited a bullish reaction after some of the numbers came in below expectations. Wheat was more of a mixed bag but still was able to partake in the upswing. U.S. 23/24 wheat carryout came in at 669 mb, above expectations of 646 mb and 615 mb in September. World 23/24 ending stocks were reduced slightly from 258.6 mmt in September to 258.1 mmt. However, the USDA did lower global wheat production by almost 4 mmt to 783.43 mmt.

  • With today’s data out of the way the question is, can this rally be sustained? Often the market has a kneejerk reaction on report day but may set back once the dust settles. One thing that could continue to weigh on the market is continued high inflation. Today’s CPI data came in at 3.7%, a little more than expected. In turn, the U.S. Dollar Index jumped higher today and if it continues the trend higher, it will add more pressure to wheat.

  • Rumors that China is asking for U.S. SRW wheat pricing out of the Gulf is an encouraging sign that the recent low prices may have stimulated some buying interest. It remains to be seen if this rumor will be confirmed or not, but the export side of the market could use a boost. The USDA left their wheat export estimate unchanged in the report at 700 mb.

  • The developing war in the Middle East, and the uncertainty between Russia and Ukraine, are both factors that could continue to affect commodity markets, especially wheat. Russia continues to overshadow other exporters, with reports that private offers are as low as $235 per metric ton, despite their government’s preferred $270 floor.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The Dec ’23 contract has been in a downtrend since making highs in late July but has found support near 541 following the September 29 production report and has since been rangebound between 541 and 581 ½. With weak U.S. export demand driven by cheap Russian exports being the dominant headwind, it appears that prices may be finding value in the current trading range. If a bullish catalyst were to enter the market and push prices over 616, it may signal that a fall low is in place, which would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into the winter months. If you are a newer subscriber, Insider made sales recommendations in the late June rally around 720 and again earlier this fall near 604. With those two sales, Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, with an eye on considering additional sales in the 600 – 650 range. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Currently, July ’24 is trading at a 68-cent premium to the Dec ’23 contract as bear spreading due to fund positioning and weak fundamentals have driven the Dec ’23 contract closer to 550, while the July ’24 contract remains near 625. The risk for the July ’24 contract remains the same as for Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. At the end of August, Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for this possibility, and back in June, Insider recommended two separate sales that averaged about 720 to take advantage of the brief upswing. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward June’s highs, Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted a year from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Chicago wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: December wheat has been consolidating since the break on September 29. The market’s previous range of 570 – 618 is an area of resistance which will need more bullish input to rally through. If the market breaks further, support below the market resides between 533 – 524.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 K.C. wheat crop. The Dec ’23 contract has been in a down trend since making highs in late July and continues to search for support while trading about 40 cents off the contract lows from July ’21. With weak U.S. export demand driven by cheap Russian exports being the dominant headwind, the market is in need of bullish input to stabilize and rally prices back higher. If a bullish catalyst were to enter the market and push prices towards 750, it may signal that a fall low is in place which would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into winter and early spring. Earlier this year, Insider made a sales recommendation in the late May rally around 1170. With that sale, Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, with an eye on considering additional sales north of 700, and again around 750 – 800. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat.  Currently, July ’24 is trading at an 18-cent premium to the Dec ’23 contract, up from a 60-cent discount last July, as bear spreading due to weak fundamentals has driven the Dec ’23 contract closer to its contract lows, while the July ’24 contract remains more elevated as it tests Feb ’22 lows. The risk for the July ’24 contract is much like that for Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode, and in mid-August Insider recommended purchasing July 660 puts to prepare for this possibility. Also, back in July Insider recommended a sale near 800 to take advantage of elevated prices before they eroded further. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward 800, Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further and Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 K.C. Wheat. Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted a year from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of K.C. wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since the end of September, K.C. wheat has been consolidating after finding initial support just below the market near 660. If the market resumes its downtrend, the next levels of support below 660 come in around 630 and then 575, while resistance to the upside may be found between 710 – 722.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. The Dec ’23 contract has been in a down trend since making highs in late July and continues to search for support while showing signs of being oversold. With weak U.S. export demand driven by cheap Russian exports being the dominant headwind, the market is in need of bullish input to stabilize and rally prices back higher. If a bullish catalyst were to enter the market and push prices towards 800, it may signal that a fall low is in place, which would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into winter. Earlier this year, Insider made a sales recommendation near 820 in the July rally. With that sale, Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter with an eye on considering additional sales around 750 – 800, and again north of 825. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. In the last three months the Sep ’24 contract has gone from a 60 – 80 discount to Dec ’23, to nearly a 60-cent premium. Weak fundamentals led bear spreading to drive Dec ’23 in search of new contract lows, while Sep ’24 remains nearly 30 cents off its low from last June. The risk for the Sep ’24 contract is much like that of Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. In mid-August, Insider recommended purchasing July K.C. 660 puts (for their greater liquidity and correlation to Minneapolis pricing) to prepare for this possibility, and back in July, Insider recommended a sale near 815 to take advantage of elevated prices. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward 800, Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further. Insider will then be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted a year from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since early September, Dec Minneapolis wheat has been largely rangebound, and the recent breakout to the downside on September 29 has the market poised to test support near the May ’21 low of 665. If prices turn higher, initial resistance may be found between 745 – 760.

Other Charts / Weather

U.S. 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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Midday Update: October 12, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
DEC ’23 483.75 -4.25
MAR ’24 499.5 -4.25
DEC ’24 512.25 -5
Soybeans
NOV ’23 1254.5 2
JAN ’24 1273.5 1.25
NOV ’24 1238.25 -1.25
Chicago Wheat
DEC ’23 553.5 -2.5
MAR ’24 583.5 -3.75
JUL ’24 619 -6.25
K.C. Wheat
DEC ’23 659.5 -7.75
MAR ’24 668.25 -8
JUL ’24 677.25 -8.75
Mpls Wheat
DEC ’23 713.75 -4.5
MAR ’24 738 -4.25
SEP ’24 772.25 -5.25
S&P 500
DEC ’23 4409 -0.75
Crude Oil
DEC ’23 82.89 0.82
Gold
DEC ’23 1884 -3.3

  • Private exporters reported sales totaling 124,545 mt of corn for delivery to Guatemala during the 23/24 marketing year.

  • November corn on China’s Dalian Exchange is near the lowest level in more than three months. This could be due to reported higher than expected production, and there is a chance the USDA could address this on today’s report.

  • Due to the Columbus holiday this week, export sales are delayed until tomorrow.

  • While the U.S. corn market remains relatively quiet and in a sideways trend, Brazil continues to ship corn to China and other global destinations, since their corn prices are lower than the U.S.

  • Strategie Grains increased their estimate of the EU corn crop to 60.6 mmt (up 1 mmt from the previous estimate).

  • Private exporters reported sales totaling 295,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 23/24 marketing year.

  • November soybeans closed 19 cents lower yesterday, likely due to pre-report positioning.

  • On Wednesday, November soybeans on China’s Dalian Exchange hit a new two-month low. On Thursday bean prices were steady, around the equivalent of $16.50 per bushel.

  • In order to push soybean prices higher, South America may need to see widespread weather problems, beyond what is currently happening. CONAB released their updated estimates for Brazil’s soybean crop. They now estimate it at a record large 162 mmt.

  • There are rumors that China is looking for U.S. SRW wheat prices out of the Gulf. The U.S. wheat market could definitely use some more export demand and the recent decline in prices may have stimulated some international buying interest.

  • CPI data this morning came in at 3.7%, higher than the expected 3.6%. The U.S. Dollar Index is also sharply higher on the day. This may be in part what is weighing on wheat futures this morning.

  • As the war in Israel ramps up, and there is still uncertainty in the Black Sea, the wheat market may be choppy for the near future as traders react to the relevant headlines.

  • It is being reported that in South America, Argentine wheat yields are declining, and quality of Brazilian wheat is also declining due to too much rain in southern regions.

  • Despite the Russian government’s $270 per mt price floor on wheat exports, there is talk that private Russian offers are as low as $235 per mt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: October 12, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 488.25 0.25
MAR ’24 503.75 0
DEC ’24 516.5 -0.75

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1257.75 5.25
JAN ’24 1277 4.75
NOV ’24 1240.25 0.75

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 558.25 2.25
MAR ’24 589.5 2.25
JUL ’24 626.25 1

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 669.25 2
MAR ’24 678 1.75
JUL ’24 688.25 2.25

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 722.25 4
MAR ’24 746 3.75
SEP ’24 777 -0.5

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4425.75 16

Crude Oil

DEC ’23 83.03 0.96

Gold

DEC ’23 1894.9 7.6

  • Corn is trading unchanged to slightly higher this morning as grains trade quietly ahead of today’s WASDE report which will be released at 11 a.m. central.

  • Estimates for today’s WASDE report have yields lower at 173.7 bpa and ending stocks lower as well at 2.148 billion bushels. World ending stocks are also expected to fall.

  • China is boosting their expected corn output for 23/24 to 288.94 mmt on higher yields. This would put output higher by 11 mmt than last year.

  • In Brazil, reports of restricted grain movement are popping up as drought conditions cause low water levels on the Amazon which has caused boats to run aground and get stuck.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning with support from higher soybean meal. Soybean oil is lower in the front months but higher in the deferred contracts.

  • Average estimates for today’s USDA report have yields at 49.9 bpa compared to 50.1 bpa last month with US ending stocks expected to increase, but world soybean stocks decreasing.

  • Low export sales this year have been the biggest hinderance to soybean prices with export commitments 32% lower than a year ago, but yesterday’s sale of 12.2 mb of soybeans to China and unknown may be showing that the US is entering its export window.

  • As in corn, the low water levels on the Amazon in South America are holding up soybean shipments which would be friendly to US exports.

  • Wheat is slightly higher this morning but still near its lowest levels in two years. The continuing problem is poor export demand as Russia sells its wheat cheaply.

  • Expectations for today’s WASDE report are for US ending stocks to increase from 615 mb to 646 mb, but that number could end up being higher.

  • China has been looking to import wheat after heavy rains damaged its harvest, and this occurrence could explain the surprise US sale of wheat to China last week.

  • England’s wheat crop has reportedly fallen by 10% to 12.81 mmt due to lower yields than expected, but planted acres were reduced as well.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Grain Market Insider: October 11, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Positioning ahead of tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report lent support to the corn market as traders anticipate a slightly lower carryout, while a swift harvest pace, and weakness in wheat, soybeans, and crude oil added upward resistance to corn prices, as the market settled just off the day’s highs.

  • After trading higher in the overnight session, and despite two flash sales totaling 12 mb, November soybeans traded lower throughout the day to close near the bottom of the range on harvest pressure, and as traders set positions in anticipation of potentially bearish USDA numbers in tomorrow’s report.

  • After trading on both sides of unchanged, soybean meal closed lower on the day, though just a mere 40 cents/ton. While further contributing to a weaker soybean trade, soybean oil continued its slide lower on weaker world veg oils and lower biofuel RIN values.

  • Position squaring led the day with two-sided trade that had all three wheat classes closing in the red as traders anticipate higher ending stocks in tomorrow’s USDA report.

  • To see the current U.S. 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and South American average temperatures from the NWS and NOAA, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The last couple weeks Dec ’23 corn has seen a bump from a low of 467.75 to a high last week of 499.00. Since mid-August, the psychological 500.00 level has served as market resistance on the front month. Without any bullish catalyst from the coming USDA Supply and Demand report this Thursday, the market remains at risk of sideways to lower price action. In years without bullish fundamental tailwinds at this time of year, the worst case scenarios have seen prices trend slowly lower into anywhere from late November to early January. If you’re new to Insider and were not a subscriber during this summer’s rally, Insider did recommend making sales into that summer rally when Dec ’23 was around 624.00, so for now the thought process is to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter, with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by early winter, then Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until next spring. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall and must move them, consider re-owning those bushels with either July or September ’24 call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. The Dec ’24 contract has held up better than Dec ’23 as bear spreading over the last several months has brought increased buying interest into Dec ’24 and other further out contract months. Back in late July, the Dec ’23 contract traded up to a 25-cent premium over Dec ’24. Now Dec ’24 holds a 28-cent premium over Dec ’23. This bear spreading has the Dec ’24 price up about 28 cents from its year-to-date low. The risk for 2024 prices is the same as 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a lower trend without a bullish catalyst on this Thursday’s Supply and Demand report. Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Insider recommended buying 560 and 610 Dec ’23 call options ahead of the summer rally, and having those in place helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700.00 or 800.00 that the call options would protect those sold bushels. 

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of corn recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/2 Call/2 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • In pre-USDA report trade, corn futures saw prices trade higher as funds were likely squaring positions for tomorrow’s report. December corn added 2 ½ cents as weakness in wheat, soybeans, and crude oil markets limited gains on the session.

  • The USDA will release the latest crop production and supply/demand numbers on Thursday morning.  Expectations are for corn yield to be trimmed slightly to 173.5 bushels/acre. The lower possible production, plus the tighter than expected grain stocks should lower corn carryout slightly to an expected 2.138 billion bushels.

  • Corn harvest pace moved to 34% complete on the weekly crop progress numbers. This was slightly below market expectations, but ahead of the 5-year average of 31%. The ongoing harvest pressure added resistance to the market’s upside potential.

  • The weather forecasts have kept the harvest pace strong for the first half of the week, but projected moisture in the 2nd half of the week, and into the weekend, may slow harvest progress going into next week for north and central areas of the Corn Belt.

  • South American weather will become a potential factor after Thursday’s USDA report. Dry weather in the north and excessive moisture in the south regions may slow soybean planting, which could push back the 2nd crop corn planting. The weather concerns are extremely early in the crop year but could be more important as the market moves closer to the end of the year.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, with some minor short covering lifting prices in recent days. Resistance remains above the market between 490 – 516, and support below the market may be found near 460 and again near 415.

Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Corn percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. The Nov ’23 contract has been finding buying interest around the June 2023 low of 1256.75 on the front month. Over the last seven trading days, Nov ’23 has traded largely between 1260.00 and 1280.00.  If there were to be a bullish catalyst from this Thursday’s USDA Supply and Demand report and Nov ’23 subsequently closed over 1287.25, that could signal the possibility that a harvest/fall low is in. Bigger picture, since May 2023, the front month contract has traded in a range from 1256.75 on the downside to 1435.00 on the topside. If you are a newer subscriber to Insider and were not with us back in the summer, Insider did make two sales recommendations in the 1310-1360 price window versus Nov ’23. Given those sales recommendations were already made and given that now is not the time of year to be making many if any sales, Insider is content to hold tight on next sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter. The focus for strategy right now is to be on the lookout for any call option buying opportunities. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall, consider buying those sold bushels back with July or August ’24 call options.

  • No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Nov ’24 continues to trade at a discount to Nov ’23. That discount was over 90 cents in late summer yet has stabilized lately around the 10-20 cent range.  Since July, the Nov ’24 contract has largely traded between 1250 and 1320, so this contract is currently testing the bottom end of that range. To date, Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be early winter at the soonest. Currently, Insider’s focus is also on watching for any opportunities to recommend buying call options.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of soybean recommendations:
• 2023: 2 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

  • Soybeans ended the day lower and were below the previous low of 12-56-3/4 from June as they are under pressure from harvest and in anticipation of tomorrow’s WASDE report. Both soybean meal and oil were lower with pressure from crude oil and world veg oils.

  • Estimates for Thursday’s WASDE report call for soybean yields to fall slightly to 49.9 bpa from 50.1 bpa in last month’s estimate. Production is expected to be lowered slightly to 4.134 bb. It is unknown if the USDA will make adjustments to demand in this report.

  • World veg oil prices continue to be weak as Ukrainian sunflower oil’s premium to palm oil fell to just $45/mt from $400 in recent days. Additionally, here in the U.S., lower biofuel RIN values continue to weigh on bean oil prices. 

  • Brazil is currently in the middle of planting and early estimates are calling for a record 23/24 production of 162 mmt, but the country continues to deal with weather issues. In the northern region, light showers are expected but it is likely not enough, and in the southern region conditions remain far too wet.

  • On the heels of yesterday’s impressive export inspections number of 1.036 mmt, sales were reported today of 121,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China for the 23/24 period, and 213,000 mt for delivery to unknown destinations for the 23/24 marketing year. U.S. exports have picked up recently out of the PNW as Brazil runs tight on supplies.

Above: Since the end of August, the soybean market has been in a downtrend, and though it has been consolidating, it remains oversold, which can be supportive if prices turn higher. Initial support to the downside lies near the recent low of 1254, with further support between 1238 – 1214, while resistance above the market lies between 1285 – 1323. 

Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Tomorrow traders will receive the latest USDA data on the WASDE report. Pre-report estimates of U.S. 23/24 wheat carryout come out to an average of 646 mb, compared to 615 mb in September. The world 23/24 average carryout estimate is projected at 258.8 mmt, up just slightly from 258.6 mmt last month.

  • According to the USDA, winter wheat planting is 57% complete with 29% of the crop emerged. With most of the Midwest dry, there is some concern about emergence. However, some rain across the upper Midwest and northern Plains is expected over the coming days.

  • Even though western Australia is too dry, and it is affecting their wheat production, Australian wheat futures are actually trading lower as yields are coming in better than expected.

  • With low global prices in general, it will be a tough road ahead to see U.S. futures rally. Russia continues to dominate exports, with talk of a sale to Egypt for 480,000 mt at $265 per ton FOB. In response to this sale, EU wheat is said to have dropped to just $250 per ton.

  • In contrast to the above point, SovEcon believes Russia’s wheat exports are expected to decline due to slowing demand. This could be tied to their Ministry of Agriculture trying to prevent sales below the $270 per ton price floor. Russia’s October wheat exports may be 3.9-4.4 mmt, down from 4.5 mmt last year.

  • For the 23/24 season, French soft wheat exports are expected to rise to 17.25 mmt, versus a projected 17.16 mmt in September. This is according to the French crop office, FranceAgriMer. In addition, stocks were reduced to 2.77 mmt vs 2.92 mmt previously.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The Dec ’23 contract has been in a downtrend since making highs in late July but has found support near 541 following the September 29 production report and has since been rangebound between 541 and 581 ½. With weak U.S. export demand driven by cheap Russian exports being the dominant headwind, it appears that prices may be finding value in the current trading range. If a bullish catalyst were to enter the market and push prices over 616, it may signal that a fall low is in place, which would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into the winter months. If you are a newer subscriber, Insider made sales recommendations in the late June rally around 720 and again earlier this fall near 604. With those two sales, Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, with an eye on considering additional sales in the 600 – 650 range. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further. There is plenty of time to market the 2024 crop and with the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, many uncertainties remain that could shock prices higher, like geopolitical instability and dryness in the southern hemisphere. If prices turn around and rally higher, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales north of 750, if not, and prices make new lows, unsold bushels will be protected by the recommended July ’24 590 puts.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Chicago wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 2 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: December wheat has been consolidating since the break on September 29. The market’s previous range of 570 – 618 is an area of resistance which will need more bullish input to rally through. If the market breaks further, support below the market resides between 533 – 524.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 K.C wheat crop. Since the end of May the wheat market has been influenced by weak demand, changing headlines from the Black Sea region, and the corn market with its own demand and weather concerns. With harvest in the bin, U.S. production has been better than expected and demand remains weak. Still, many supply questions remain unanswered from the Black Sea region and the southern hemisphere, which could push prices in either direction. While Insider will continue to monitor the downside for any breach of major support, we would need to see prices pushed toward 700 – 750 before considering any additional sales.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian exports continue to be major headwinds for U.S. prices, Insider recommended buying July ’24 puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further, while war persists in the Black Sea region, and production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino. With the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, there are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 660 puts, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and Insider will also be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales if prices turn around and rally north of 775. 

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of K.C. wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since the end of September, K.C. wheat has been consolidating after finding initial support just below the market near 660. If the market resumes its downtrend, the next levels of support below 660 come in around 630 and then 575, while resistance to the upside may be found between 710 – 722.

Winter wheat percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Weather has been a dominant feature this season with production concerns not only in the U.S., but also Canada, and Australia. While prices have been weak due to low export demand, weather and geopolitical events can change suddenly to move prices higher. If prices move towards 750 – 800, Insider will consider making sales suggestions, while also continuing to watch the downside for any further violations of support. 

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. This year has been dominated by production concerns regarding the 2023 crop, and considering slow export demand and cheap Russian prices continue to be major headwinds for prices, Insider recently recommended buying July ’24 K.C. wheat puts to protect unsold grain if prices continue to retreat further, while war persists in the Black Sea region, and production concerns continue in the southern hemisphere due to El Nino. With the world stocks to use ratio at an 8-year low, there are still many uncertainties that could shock prices higher, and plenty of time remains to market the 2024 crop. After recommending buying July ’24 K.C. wheat 660 puts for the liquidity and high correlation to Minneapolis wheat’s price movements, unsold bushels will be protected if prices make new lows, and if prices turn around and rally towards 800, Insider will be looking for opportunities to consider recommending additional sales. 

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. 2025 markets are very illiquid right now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

Grain Market Insider has issued the following number of Minneapolis wheat recommendations:
• 2023: 1 Cash/0 Call/0 Put
• 2024: 1 Cash/0 Call/1 Put
• 2025: 0 Cash/0 Call/0 Put

Above: Since early September, Dec Minneapolis wheat has been largely rangebound, and the recent breakout to the downside on September 29 has the market poised to test support near the May ’21 low of 665. If prices turn higher, initial resistance may be found between 745 – 760.

Other Charts / Weather

Brazil average temperature courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina average temperature courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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Midday Update: October 11, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
DEC ’23 485.75 0.25
MAR ’24 501.5 0.25
DEC ’24 515.25 1
Soybeans
NOV ’23 1256 -15.5
JAN ’24 1275.25 -14
NOV ’24 1239.5 -9.75
Chicago Wheat
DEC ’23 554.25 -4.25
MAR ’24 585.75 -4.25
JUL ’24 623.5 -5.25
K.C. Wheat
DEC ’23 666.75 -4.5
MAR ’24 675.5 -4.75
JUL ’24 684.25 -6
Mpls Wheat
DEC ’23 718.75 -4.75
MAR ’24 743.25 -3.75
SEP ’24 777.75 -4.75
S&P 500
DEC ’23 4390 -1.5
Crude Oil
DEC ’23 81.74 -2.39
Gold
DEC ’23 1883.5 8.2

  • The average pre-report U.S. corn production estimate comes in at 15.100 bb, versus 15.134 bb in September. Additionally, yield is expected at 173.5 bpa versus 173.8 bpa last month. 

  • The U.S. 23/24 corn ending stocks pre-report estimate is projected at 2.145 bb vs 2.221 bb in September, and globally the estimate comes in at 313 mmt vs 314 mmt previously.

  • CONAB reduced their estimate of Brazilian corn production in 23/24 to 119.4 mmt due to a decrease in acreage. This is still the second largest on record but down 12 mmt from last year.

  • Heavy rains expected in the Plains on Friday are moving west to east and will cause some harvest delays this weekend.

  • The average pre-report U.S. soybean production estimate comes in at 4.132 bb, versus 4.146 bb in September. Additionally, yield is expected at 49.9 bpa versus 50.1 bpa last month.  

  • The U.S. 23/24 soybean ending stocks pre-report estimate is projected at 236 mb versus 220 mb in September, and globally the estimate comes in at 119.6 mmt versus 119.3 mmt previously.

  • November soybeans on China’s Dalian Exchange hit a two-month low after being down another 2.6% on Tuesday.

  • Private exporters reported sales of 121,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year.

  • CONAB estimated Brazil’s soybean crop at 162 mmt, which is a new record and 5% above last year.

  • The U.S. 23/24 wheat ending stocks pre-report estimate is projected at 646 mb versus 615 mb in September, and globally the estimate comes in at 258.8 mmt versus 258.6 mmt previously.

  • Despite the potential production issues in Australia, their wheat futures are actually trading lower as their yields are coming in better than expected.

  • Lower global prices, especially out of Russia, are keeping the wheat market under pressure. There is talk that Russia sold 480,000 mt of wheat to Egypt this week at $265 per mt FOB. Additionally, EU wheat is said to be offered around $250 per mt in response.

  • Winter wheat planting is reported to be 57% complete and 29% of the crop has emerged.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: October 11, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 486.25 0.75
MAR ’24 501.75 0.5
DEC ’24 515.25 1

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1271.5 0
JAN ’24 1290.25 1
NOV ’24 1250.75 1.5

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 556.5 -2
MAR ’24 587.75 -2.25
JUL ’24 626.25 -2.5

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 668 -3.25
MAR ’24 676.75 -3.5
JUL ’24 690.25 0

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 722.25 -1.25
MAR ’24 747 0
SEP ’24 783 0.5

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4406.25 14.75

Crude Oil

DEC ’23 83.95 -0.18

Gold

DEC ’23 1886.7 11.4

  • Corn is trading slightly higher this morning ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report and following yesterday evening’s crop progress report.

  • The crop progress report was delayed due to Columbus Day, but the corn harvest was called at 34% complete compared to 23% last week, and good to excellent ratings were unchanged at 53%.

  • Estimates for tomorrow’s WASDE report have yields slightly lower at 173.7 bpa, and ending stocks slightly lower as well at 2.148 billion bushels.

  • The USDA’s attaché in Beijing lowered its estimate of Chinese corn imports from 23.0 mmt to 20.0 mmt, and November corn on the Dalian exchange closed at its lowest levels in three months.

  • Soybeans are slightly lower this morning despite both soybean meal and oil trading higher. Crop progress said that the soybean harvest was ahead of pace for this year.

  • Yesterday, the USDA said that 43% of the bean crop was harvested compared to 23% last week, with crop ratings down a point to 51% good to excellent.

  • Average estimates for tomorrow’s WASDE report have yields at 50.0 bpa compared to 50.1 bpa last month, but ending stocks are expected to increase slightly to 233 mb from 220 mb last month.

  • Supplies of soybeans in Brazil appear to be tightening, giving the US a good opportunity to export beans. China has been an active buyer out of the PNW for October through December.

  • All three wheat contracts are trading lower this morning and are near their lowest prices in two years as the US struggles to find export demand.

  • Yesterday’s crop progress report said that 57% of winter wheat has been planted compared to 50% last week and 53% a year ago. 29% of the winter wheat has emerged .

  • UN officials will visit Moscow to continue talks about the Black Sea grain deal, but so far Ukraine doesn’t seem to be running into much trouble exporting grain on their own.

  • Estimates for tomorrow’s WASDE report are that wheat ending stocks in the US will increase slightly to 649 mb from 615 mb, but that world ending stocks will decrease slightly as multiple countries deal with adverse weather.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.