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Opening Update: October 25, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 483.25 -0.75
MAR ’24 497.75 -0.25
DEC ’24 512.5 -1.25

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1295.75 0.5
JAN ’24 1315 0.5
NOV ’24 1263.25 1

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 582 1.5
MAR ’24 609.5 2
JUL ’24 638.5 1

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 663 0
MAR ’24 671.75 0
JUL ’24 681.75 0

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 733.75 5.5
MAR ’24 752.5 5.25
SEP ’24 774.75 -9.25

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4258.25 -13

Crude Oil

DEC ’23 83.59 -0.15

Gold

DEC ’23 1983.6 -2.5

  • Corn is trading lower this morning after three consecutively lower closes due to harvest pressure and some outside pressure from lower crude oil.

  • Yesterday, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 117,200 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 23/24 marketing year, but this sale didn’t have much effect on the market as traders look for exports to destinations like China.

  • Ethanol production for the week ending October 20 is expected to be higher than last week at 1.043 m b/d with the stockpile average estimate at 21.236 m bbl vs 21.112m a week ago.

  • The USDA attaché in Ukraine sees its 23/24 corn crop at 30.7 mmt which would be a larger production amount than the previous year.

  • Soybeans are mixed this morning with the two front months slightly lower but deferred contracts higher after yesterday’s solid gains. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher.

  • December soybean meal made new contract highs overnight as momentum from strong US exports of meal continues.

  • Some analysts are already revising their estimates of South American production to be lower amid the dry conditions that Argentina and northern Brazil are dealing with during planting.

  • Yesterday, China signed a US agricultural purchase agreement that would include them buying billions of dollars worth of agricultural goods, mostly soybeans, during a ceremony in Iowa.

  • Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago and KC lower but Minneapolis higher. KC is nearing contract lows while Minn is faring better due to better demand for high protein wheat.

  • Ukraine announced that 700,000 tons of grain have been exported through their own humanitarian corridor since August, with 30 ships having left Ukrainian ports.

  • EU soft wheat exports fell by 22% in the season through October 22 at just 9.33 mt vs 12 mt last year.

  • Russian grain production is expected to rise further to 600,000 tons this year as many other countries deal with lower production due poor weather. Russia continues to dominate export sales.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Grain Market Insider: October 24, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Despite a flash sale totaling 117,000 mt tons of corn for the 23/24 marketing year, December corn settled lower for the third session in a row, pressured by technical selling, continued harvest pressure and weakness in the wheat complex.

  • Sharply higher soybean meal, and higher Board crush more than offset lower soybean oil and led soybeans to rally back and settle higher on the day after making new lows for the week.

  • Soybean oil settled at a new 4-month low amid low RIN values, and weaker crude and palm oil.  Whereas strong export demand for soybean meal continues to support meal prices and crush demand for soybeans, while also potentially generating excess bean oil supply.

  • A strong US dollar and unconfirmed rumors of Chinese interest in US wheat continue to plague the wheat market as all three classes closed lower on the day, with Chicago and Minneapolis giving up any gains made from Monday’s rally.

  • To see the current U.S. 3 – 4 week Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, courtesy of NOAA, NWS, and the CPC, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. On October 19, December corn closed above 500 for the first time since the end of July. While the market was unable to follow through to the upside, the overall trend remains positive with successively higher lows, from mid-August. If the market can maintain a close above 500 and the 100-day moving average, it may aim to test resistance near 547. Otherwise, if the market closes below the 50-day moving average near 485, it may run the risk of continuing to trend sideways to lower, with a worst-case scenario being a sideways to lower trend into late November, or even early January. During last summer’s June rally, Grain Market Insider recommended making sales when Dec ’23 was around 624. So, for now, the thought process is to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter, with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by early winter, then Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall and must move them, consider protecting those sold bushels with either July or September ’24 call options. 

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. The Dec ’24 contract has held up better than Dec ’23 as bear spreading over the last several months has brought increased buying interest into Dec ’24 and other further out contract months. Back in late July, the Dec ’23 contract traded up to a 25-cent premium over Dec ’24. Now, Dec ’24 holds a 28-cent premium over Dec ’23. This bear spreading has held the Dec ’24 price up about 28 cents from its year-to-date low. The risk for 2024 prices is the same as for 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a lower trend without further bullish input. Grain Market Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Grain Market Insider recommended buying 560 and 610 Dec ’23 call options ahead of the summer rally and having those in place helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700 or 800 that the call options would protect those sold bushels.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Harvest pressure, weakness in the wheat market and technical selling pressure pushed corn futures lower on the session. December corn futures lost 6 ¼ cents in weak price action on Tuesday.

  • Corn harvest has reached 59% complete according to the USDA weekly Crop Progress report. This was in line with analysts’ expectations and 5% above the 5-year average.

  • A strong Midwestern storm will be working its way across the Corn Belt over the next few days.  Rainfall with good coverage and a sharp drop in temperature is forecasted into the start of November.  Wetter than normal forecasts may limit harvest progress through the end of the week in some areas.

  • South American weather will likely stay dry and hot for areas of Brazil, but Argentina could see some overall improvement. While South American weather is still in its early stages, the corn market is lacking any true weather premium.

  • The weak price action on Tuesday is concerning as December corn closed under the support of $4.85, and March under $5.00. The soft close and downward momentum could lead to additional long liquidation in corn futures on Wednesday.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, with only minor short covering moving the market higher until recently. With the market trading up to 509 ½ and failing, the next resistance level now sits at that recent high, with further resistance near the July 31 high of 516 ¼. If the market retreats, initial support below the market remains between 475 – 480 and then near 460.

Corn percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Front month soybeans have been finding buying interest around the June 2023 low of 1256 ¾, and since the beginning of October, they have also traded largely between 1260 and 1280. The close over 1287 ¼ on October 12 could be a signal that a harvest/fall low is in. In the big picture since May 2023, Nov ’23 has traded in a range from 1256 ¾ on the downside to 1435 on the topside. Last summer, Grain Market Insider did make two sales recommendations in the 1310 – 1360 price window versus Nov ’23. Given that those sales recommendations were made and given that now is not the time of year to be making many sales, if any, Grain Market Insider is content to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter. The focus for strategy right now is to be on the lookout for any call option buying opportunities. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall, consider protecting any sold bushels with July or Aug ’24 call options.

  • No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Nov ’24 has traded at a discount to the 2023 crop for nearly its entire contract life and extended out to 142 versus the Jan ’24 contract in late July, with it recently trading between 17 ¾ and 66 cents. Since July, the Nov ’24 contract has mostly traded between 1250 and 1320 and is currently testing the bottom end of that range. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be early winter at the soonest. Currently, Grain Market Insider’s focus is also on watching for any opportunities to recommend buying call options.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans began the day lower, but ended with gains thanks to big support from soybean meal. Continued drought in Argentina impacted their production and export of soybean meal, with the US able to pick up some of that export business. Soybean oil was lower today with lower crude and veg oils.

  • Soybeans also got support from purchasing agreements that were signed today between Chinese agricultural companies and US commodity exporters at a ceremony held in Des Moines and organized by the US Soybean Export Council. 11 different agreements were made, and now trade will look to see when these purchases will be announced by the USDA.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed soybeans at 76% harvested as producers rush to get work complete before more rain falls. This is up from the 5-year average pace of 67%. The central and western Corn Belt are forecast to receive significant rain over the next 7 days.

  • South American weather is coming more into focus as planting continues in poor conditions. The new 10-day forecast is showing an extended trend of hot and dry conditions in Argentina and Brazil apart from southern Brazil. Many producers are already replanting due to the dryness.

Above: In the middle of October, the market pierced the upper end of the 1285 – 1323 resistance area and tested the 50-day moving average, before retreating lower. If the market can maintain a close above resistance at 1334, it would be poised to make a run to test 1370. Otherwise, initial support to the downside may be found near 1300 and again near 1273. Key support for the move remains down near 1250.

Soybeans percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • With US winter wheat now 77% planted and emergence at 53%, crop ratings are expected to be released next week. Expectations are for conditions to be better than last year due to the improved soil moisture levels in the southern Plains. Traders look for a rating of 45%-49% in the good to excellent category.

  • According to the ag ministry, Ukraine is estimated to have shipped about 700,000 mt of ag goods through the humanitarian corridor since it was opened. Officials believe that it is possible, however, to transport between 2.0-2.5 mmt per month on those shipping lanes. Grain also continues to leave the country via the Danube River.

  • Matif wheat futures closed in the red for the third time in the past four sessions. This pressured the US market today, as did the US Dollar Index, making a big move higher. As of this writing, the dollar is up 0.75 at 106.28. This historically high level does not help the export market, especially as Russian wheat offers are still said to be dirt cheap around $235 per mt.

  • Consultancy group, APK-Inform, reduced their estimate of Ukraine’s grain harvest to 53.4 mmt versus 54.2 previously. The wheat output forecast was unchanged at 21.5 mmt, so the revision came down to a lower corn harvest projection.

  • There continues to be talk that China is looking to purchase more US wheat, though there have not been any announced sales over the reportable level of 100,000 mt. However, there is some chatter that China will try to stimulate their economy – if true this could lead to more import demand for commodities.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Since making a mid-summer high in late July, the Dec ’23 contract has been in a downtrend, but after finding support at 540 on September 29, the market has steadily rallied, briefly piercing 600 and the 50-day moving average.  With weak US export demand driven by cheap Russian exports being the dominant headwind, it appears that prices may be finding value in the 540 – 616 range established since early September.  Grain Market Insider made sales recommendations in the late June rally around 720, and again earlier this fall near 604. With those two sales, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, with an eye on considering additional sales in the 625 – 650 range. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. The July ’24 contract has been trading at a premium to the Dec ’23 contract since late April, which has steadily increased to about 55 cents, September 29, it traded as far out as 71 ¾ cents. Fund positioning and weak fundamentals have driven Dec ’23 closer to the mid to upper 500 range, and July ’24 to the low to mid 600’s. The market risk for July ’24 remains the same as for Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for this possibility, and back in June, Grain Market Insider recommended two separate sales that averaged about 720 to take advantage of the brief upswing. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward June’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted a year from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: After its push lower on Sept. 29, December wheat has slowly regained its value and is trading in the same 570 – 618 range it did prior to its break lower. For the market to push through the top side of the range, more bullish input will be needed. If so, the market would be poised to test the 645 – 664 area. If not and the market retreats, initial support could be found near 568 and then down between 547 and 540.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 K.C. wheat crop. The Dec ’23 contract has been in a downtrend since making highs in late July and continues to search for support while trading about 40 cents off the contract lows from July ’21. With weak U.S. export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, being the dominant headwind, the market is in need of bullish input to stabilize and rally prices back higher. If a bullish catalyst were to enter the market and push prices towards 750 it may signal that a fall low is in place, which would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into winter and early spring. Earlier this year, Grain Market Insider made a sales recommendation in the late May rally around 1170. With that sale, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, with an eye on considering additional sales north of 700, and again around 750 – 800.  If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. Currently, July ’24 is trading at an 18-cent premium to the Dec ’23 contract, up from a 60-cent discount last July, as bear spreading due to weak fundamentals has driven the Dec ’23 contract closer to its contract lows, while the July ’24 contract remains more elevated as it tests Feb ’22 lows. The risk for the July ’24 contract is much like that for Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode, and in mid-August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 660 puts to prepare for this possibility. Also, back in July, Grain Market Insider recommended a sale near 800 to take advantage of elevated prices before they eroded further. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward 800, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 K.C. Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted a year from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following K.C. recommendations:

Above: Since the end of September, K.C. wheat has been consolidating with initial support just below the market near the September 12 low of 655. If the market retreats lower and breaks through 655, the next levels of support come in around 630 and 575. Initial resistance to the upside may be found near 690 – 700 and again around 722.

Winter wheat percent planted (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

Winter wheat percent emerged (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and versus last year (purple).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. The Dec ’23 contract has been in a downtrend since making highs in late July and continues to search for support while showing signs of being oversold. With weak U.S. export demand driven by cheap Russian exports being the dominant headwind, the market is in need of bullish input to stabilize and rally prices back higher. If a bullish catalyst were to enter the market and push prices towards 800, it may signal that a fall low is in place, which would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into winter. Earlier this year, Grain Market Insider made a sales recommendation during the July rally near 820. With that sale, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter with an eye on considering additional sales around 750 – 800, and again north of 825. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat.  In the last three months, the Sep ’24 contract has gone from a 60 – 80 discount to Dec ’23, to a nearly 60-cent premium. Weak fundamentals led bear spreading to drive Dec ’23 in search of new contract lows, while Sep ’24 remains nearly 30 cents off its low from last June. The risk for the Sep ’24 contract is much like that of Dec ’23.  The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. In mid-August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July K.C. 660 puts (for their greater liquidity, and correlation to Minneapolis pricing) to prepare for this possibility, and back in July, Grain Market Insider recommended a sale near 815 to take advantage of elevated prices. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward 800, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further. Grain Market Insider will then be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: For much of September, December Minneapolis wheat was rangebound, and the breakout to the downside on September 29 set the market up to test support near 665, the May ’21 low. Since then, the market has been consolidating upward, with initial support between 711 and 708. If prices continue higher, initial resistance remains between 745 – 760.

Other Charts / Weather

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Midday Update: October 24, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
DEC ’23 485.25 -5
MAR ’24 499.5 -4.5
DEC ’24 514.5 -3.75
Soybeans
NOV ’23 1291 4.25
JAN ’24 1310.75 5.25
NOV ’24 1262 3
Chicago Wheat
DEC ’23 579 -8.25
MAR ’24 606.25 -8.75
JUL ’24 637 -8.25
K.C. Wheat
DEC ’23 662.25 -8.5
MAR ’24 671.25 -9
JUL ’24 681 -9.5
Mpls Wheat
DEC ’23 725.75 -12
MAR ’24 746 -11
SEP ’24 776 -8
S&P 500
DEC ’23 4269 27.25
Crude Oil
DEC ’23 83.5 -1.99
Gold
DEC ’23 1974.1 -13.7

  • US corn harvest is now 59% complete, which is in line with last year, and ahead of the average of 54%.

  • Private exporters reported sales of 117,200 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 23/24 marketing year.

  • The central Midwest is expected to receive healthy rains over the next 5-7 days. This should cause some harvest delays, but some of the states that are lagging farthest behind, including Ohio and Pennsylvania, are likely to miss the heavy rainfall.

  • So far, Argentina has planted about 18% of their corn crop. Their soybean planting typically begins in November, so the focus may begin to shift to that crop, causing the corn planting pace to slow until late November or early December.

  • Brazil’s corn planting progress has reached 63%, which is above the average of 58%.

  • US soybean harvest is now 76% complete, which is above the average, but below the last year’s pace of 78%.

  • Speculative traders are estimated to be short about 8,000 contracts in the soy complex, which would be their largest short position since March of 2020.

  • China may be looking to implement a fiscal stimulus plan to help their economic recovery. Only time will tell if it has any impact, however, it could mean more commodity demand down the road if their economic situation improves.

  • There are some scattered rains in Brazil’s forecast, however, no broad coverage over the next 10 days. The western and central areas of the country are in need of more moisture to avoid crop loss, but the southern regions have the opposite issue and continue to receive too much rain.

  • Brazil’s soybean planting progress has reached 29% complete, in line with the average, but behind the pace from the past couple of years.

  • US winter wheat is now 77% planted, which is in line with both last year and the average. Also, emergence has reached 53%, and crop conditions are expected to start being released next week. Conditions are expected to be better than last year due to the improved soil moisture in the southern Plains.

  • Ukraine’s ag ministry estimates that they have transported around 700,000 mt of ag goods through their humanitarian corridor to date. However, they believe that in theory it is possible to ship 2.0-2.5 mmt per month via that route. Grain also continues to export via the Danube river.

  • Paris milling wheat futures are lower this morning. If they have a negative close, it would make three out of the last four sessions. This, along with a higher US Dollar Index this morning, have US wheat futures under pressure.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: October 24, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 487.75 -2.5
MAR ’24 502 -2
DEC ’24 516.25 -2

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1290.5 3.75
JAN ’24 1308.75 3.25
NOV ’24 1261.75 2.75

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 583.25 -4
MAR ’24 611 -4
JUL ’24 640 -5.25

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 663.25 -7.5
MAR ’24 672.5 -7.75
JUL ’24 683 -7.5

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 733.5 -4.25
MAR ’24 752.75 -4.25
SEP ’24 780.25 -3.75

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4262 20.25

Crude Oil

DEC ’23 85.67 0.2

Gold

DEC ’23 1982.7 -11.7

  • Corn is trading slightly lower this morning which would be the third consecutively lower day due to harvest pressure and yesterday’s crop progress report which saw harvest advancing.

  • Harvest was seen at 59% harvested as of October 22 which was in line with trade expectations and the pace from a year ago, but ahead of the 5-year average.

  • Yesterday’s big selloff in the cattle complex following the bearish Cattle on Feed report likely added some pressure to corn yesterday.

  • In Brazil, corn is now 63% planted which is ahead of the 5-year average of 58%, but their corn acres will be fewer than last year. In Argentina, just 18% of the crop has been planted which is down from the average of 29%.

  • Soybeans are working higher this morning after two consecutively lower closes with support from soybean meal and strong export inspections yesterday.

  • Yesterday’s crop progress report shower soybeans at 76% harvested which was slightly lower than trade expectations of 77%, but above the 5-year average of 67%.

  • Soybeans were under pressure yesterday due to forecasts of rain in South America, but only light showers were reported with most areas getting missed.

  • Brazilian farmers have been reluctant to sell their new soybeans with prices so much lower than a year ago. StoneX has estimated that 25% of the new soy crop which is estimated at 164 mmt has been sold.

  • Wheat is trading lower this morning with KC posting the largest losses. SRW wheat has become more competitively priced which has gotten China’s buying interest.

  • Yesterday’s crop progress report showed that winter wheat is now 77% planted  which was lower than the average trade guess, but up from 68% a week ago. 53% of the crop is emerged, up from 39% a week ago.

  • Ukraine says that it has shipped 700k tons of grain so far through the temporary export corridor in the Black Sea with destinations primarily to Europe and Africa.

  • APK-Inform has cut their estimates of the 23/24 Ukrainian grain crop to 53.4 mmt from their previous estimate of 54.2 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Grain Market Insider: October 23, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Lackluster export inspections failed to support the corn market in a general “risk off” environment as traders took profits from last week’s rally and liquidated long positions.

  • Harvest pressure and follow through technical selling from Friday’s selloff, weighed heavily on soybeans as they closed within ½ cent of last Monday’s close.

  • Firm demand for soybean meal kept that market from experiencing the deep losses of soybean oil, which was dragged lower by softer palm oil and sharply lower crude oil.

  • Continued rumors of China’s interest in purchasing US wheat, and concerns about global supplies of high protein wheat may be the supporting factor in the wheat complex that was led higher by Minneapolis contracts. While Minneapolis and KC both closed higher on the day, Chicago closed mixed, likely with short covering adding support to the front month contracts.

  • To see the current U.S. 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, as well as the South American 1-week precipitation forecasts, courtesy of NOAA, NWS, and the CPC, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. On October 19, December corn closed above 500 for the first time since the end of July. While the market was unable to follow through to the upside with more resistance just above the market at the 100-day moving average, the overall trend remains positive with successively higher lows, from mid-August. If the market can maintain a close above 500 and the 100-day moving average, it may aim to test the next resistance near 547. Otherwise, the first support on the downside is the 50-day moving average, near 485. If the market closes below 485, it may run the risk of continuing to trend sideways to lower, and a worst-case scenario could entail a sideways to lower trend into late November, or even early January. During last summer’s June rally, Grain Market Insider recommended making sales when Dec ’23 was around 624. So, for now, the thought process is to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter, with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by early winter, then Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall and must move them, consider protecting those sold bushels with either July or September ’24 call options.  

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. The Dec ’24 contract has held up better than Dec ’23 as bear spreading over the last several months has brought increased buying interest into Dec ’24 and other further out contract months. Back in late July, the Dec ’23 contract traded up to a 25-cent premium over Dec ’24. Now, Dec ’24 holds a 28-cent premium over Dec ’23. This bear spreading has the Dec ’24 price up about 28 cents from its year-to-date low. The risk for 2024 prices is the same as for 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a lower trend without further bullish input. Grain Market Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Grain Market Insider recommended buying 560 and 610 Dec ’23 call options ahead of the summer rally, and having those in place, helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700 or 800 that the call options would protect those sold bushels.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Technical selling pressure stayed in the corn market on additional long liquidation after prices failed on Friday after last week’s price rally. The markets in general showed a “risk-off” type trade as weakness was seen in many commodity and equity markets. December corn was 5 ¼ cents lower to 490 ¼.

  • Weekly export inspections for corn were lackluster at 17.2 mb, though within expectations. Softer corn exports are expected in this window as soybeans shipments are the focus of US exporters. Regardless, corn export numbers were short of the needed weekly pace to reach the USDA’s 2.025 billion bushel export target.

  • The corn harvest is expected to reach 59% complete on Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress report.  This would be up from 43% last week, but rains across the Corn Belt last week may have slowed harvest progress.

  • Cash basis on corn has improved, which could be signaling a potential fall low is placed for corn futures. The cash market has been supported by producers being slow sellers, and improved demand by end users reflecting decent margins and looking for corn supplies.

  • Harvest pressure likely kicked in as prices pushed through the $5.00 level last week, only to retreat quickly. A wetter forecast could help support prices as harvest pace could be limited this week.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, with only minor short covering moving the market higher until recently. With the market trading up to 509 ½ and failing, the next resistance level now sits at that recent high, with further resistance near the 20-day moving average and the July 31 high of 516 ¼. If the market retreats, initial support below the market remains between 475 – 480 and then near 460.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Oct.17. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 3,821 contracts between Oct. 11 – 17, bringing their total position to a net short 108,870 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Front month soybeans have been finding buying interest around the June 2023 low of 1256 ¾, and since the beginning of October, they have also traded largely between 1260 and 1280. The close over 1287 ¼ on October 12 could be a signal that a harvest/fall low is in. In the big picture since May 2023, Nov ’23 has traded in a range from 1256 ¾ on the downside to 1435 on the topside. Last summer, Grain Market Insider did make two sales recommendations in the 1310 – 1360 price window versus Nov ’23. Given that those sales recommendations were made and given that now is not the time of year to be making many sales, if any, Grain Market Insider is content to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter. The focus for strategy right now is to be on the lookout for any call option buying opportunities. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall, consider protecting any sold bushels with July or Aug ’24 call options.

  • No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Nov ’24 continues to trade at a discount to Nov ’23. That discount was over 90 cents in late summer yet has stabilized lately to around the 10-20 cent range.  Since July, the Nov ’24 contract has largely traded between 1250 and 1320, so this contract is currently testing the bottom end of that range. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be early winter at the soonest. Currently, Grain Market Insider’s focus is also on watching for any opportunities to recommend buying call options.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower, along with both soybean meal and oil, on harvest pressure and follow through technical selling. On Thursday and Friday, soybeans tested the 100-day moving average and failed both times. The 40, 100, and 200-day moving averages have all converged around the 13.20 level in November, which is acting as heavy resistance.

  • Weekly export inspections came in very strong again, totaling 90.3 mb of soybeans for the week ending October 19, 2023. Total inspections are now 290 mb, which is up 3% from the previous year. China has become a more active buyer out of the PNW, as Brazil runs low on soybeans and deals with low water levels in the Amazonian rivers.

  • Planting progress for Brazil’s 23/24 soybean crop is estimated to be 29.84% complete, which is far below the 37.6% planted at this time last year, as heat and drought has caused some to wait for better conditions. There have also been reports of many producers re-planting their soy crop.

  • Crop progress will be released later today, and expectations are that the soy crop will be reported as at least halfway complete, but the 7-day forecast is expected to be very wet for the central and western Corn Belt, which could delay further progress.

Above: In the middle of October, the market pierced the upper end of the 1285 – 1323 resistance area and tested the 50-day moving average, before retreating lower. If the market can maintain a close above resistance at 1334, it would be poised to make a run to test 1370. Otherwise, initial support to the downside may be found near 1300 and again near 1273. Key support for the move remains down near 1250.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Oct. 17. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 4,150 contracts between Oct. 11 – 17, bringing their total position to a net short 1,984 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Weekly wheat export inspections were disappointing at 6.2 mb. Total 23/24 inspections have now reached 254 mb, which is down 27% from last year, and are running below the pace needed to meet the USDA’s 700 mb export goal.

  • Argentina has had significant drought conditions, but they have recently received good rains as well. Much more will be needed to improve crops and soil moisture, but at this point any precipitation is welcomed. General concern about global production remains, especially of higher protein wheat, which may account for Minneapolis futures rallying more than Chicago or KC today.

  • Australia’s wheat crop, according to some private estimates, could now be as high as 26-28 mmt, while the USDA is projecting a 24.5 mmt harvest. The increased production may be a result of recent rains that have eased the drought and helped to stabilize the crop or even increase yields.

  • According to Ukraine’s agriculture ministry, their wheat harvest at 22.3 mmt is up 15% year on year. However, their exports of wheat total only 4.1 mmt, which is down 6.7% year on year. Recently there has not been much talk surrounding the Black Sea, but it is being reported that up to 20 vessels have safely traveled via their humanitarian corridor since it was opened. It is unclear, though, what the contents and size of the ships has been.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The Dec ’23 contract has been in a downtrend since making highs in late July but has found support near 541 following the September 29 Production report and has since been rangebound between 541 and 581 ½. With weak U.S. export demand driven by cheap Russian exports being the dominant headwind, it appears that prices may be finding value in the current trading range. If a bullish catalyst were to enter the market and push prices over 616, it may signal that a fall low is in place, which would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into the winter months. If you are a newer subscriber, Grain Market Insider made sales recommendations in the late June rally around 720, and again earlier this fall near 604. With those two sales, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, with an eye on considering additional sales in the 600 – 650 range. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Currently, July ’24 is trading at a 68-cent premium to the Dec ’23 contract as bear spreading, due to fund positioning and weak fundamentals, has driven the Dec ’23 contract closer to 550, while the July ’24 contract remains near 625. The risk for the July ’24 contract remains the same as for Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for this possibility, and back in June, Grain Market Insider recommended two separate sales that averaged about 720 to take advantage of the brief upswing. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward June’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted a year from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: After its push lower on Sept. 29, December wheat has slowly regained its value and is trading in the same 570 – 618 range it did prior to its break lower. For the market to push through the top side of the range, more bullish input will be needed. If so, the market would be poised to test the 645 – 664 area. If not and the market retreats, initial support could be found near 568 and then down between 547 and 540.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Oct. 17. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 72 contracts between Oct. 11 – 17, bringing their total position to a net short 104,407 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 K.C. wheat crop. The Dec ’23 contract has been in a downtrend since making highs in late July and continues to search for support while trading about 40 cents off the contract lows from July ’21. With weak U.S. export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, being the dominant headwind, the market is in need of bullish input to stabilize and rally prices back higher. If a bullish catalyst were to enter the market and push prices towards 750 it may signal that a fall low is in place, which would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into winter and early spring. Earlier this year, Grain Market Insider made a sales recommendation in the late May rally around 1170. With that sale, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, with an eye on considering additional sales north of 700, and again around 750 – 800.  If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. Currently, July ’24 is trading at an 18-cent premium to the Dec ’23 contract, up from a 60-cent discount last July, as bear spreading due to weak fundamentals has driven the Dec ’23 contract closer to its contract lows, while the July ’24 contract remains more elevated as it tests Feb ’22 lows. The risk for the July ’24 contract is much like that for Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode, and in mid-August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 660 puts to prepare for this possibility. Also, back in July, Grain Market Insider recommended a sale near 800 to take advantage of elevated prices before they eroded further. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward 800, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 K.C. Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted a year from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following K.C. recommendations:

Above: Since the end of September, K.C. wheat has been consolidating with initial support just below the market near the September 12 low of 655. If the market retreats lower and breaks through 655, the next levels of support come in around 630 and 575. Initial resistance to the upside may be found around 700 and again near 722.

K.C. Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Oct. 17. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 1,081 contracts between Oct. 11 – 17, bringing their total position to a net short 26,951 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. The Dec ’23 contract has been in a downtrend since making highs in late July and continues to search for support while showing signs of being oversold. With weak U.S. export demand driven by cheap Russian exports being the dominant headwind, the market is in need of bullish input to stabilize and rally prices back higher. If a bullish catalyst were to enter the market and push prices towards 800, it may signal that a fall low is in place, which would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into winter. Earlier this year, Grain Market Insider made a sales recommendation during the July rally near 820. With that sale, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter with an eye on considering additional sales around 750 – 800, and again north of 825. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat.  In the last three months, the Sep ’24 contract has gone from a 60 – 80 discount to Dec ’23, to a nearly 60-cent premium. Weak fundamentals led bear spreading to drive Dec ’23 in search of new contract lows, while Sep ’24 remains nearly 30 cents off its low from last June. The risk for the Sep ’24 contract is much like that of Dec ’23.  The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. In mid-August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July K.C. 660 puts (for their greater liquidity, and correlation to Minneapolis pricing) to prepare for this possibility, and back in July, Grain Market Insider recommended a sale near 815 to take advantage of elevated prices. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward 800, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further. Grain Market Insider will then be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: For much of September, December Minneapolis wheat was rangebound, and the breakout to the downside on September 29 set the market up to test support near 665, the May ’21 low. Since then, the market has been consolidating upward, with initial support between 711 and 708. If prices continue higher, initial resistance remains between 745 – 760.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, Oct. 17. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 2,223 contracts between Oct. 11 – 17, bringing their total position to a net short 25,729 contracts. 

Other Charts / Weather

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Midday Update: October 23, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
DEC ’23 493 -2.5
MAR ’24 507 -2
DEC ’24 520 0
Soybeans
NOV ’23 1299.75 -2.5
JAN ’24 1318 -2.25
NOV ’24 1268.75 1
Chicago Wheat
DEC ’23 592.75 6.75
MAR ’24 619.75 6.25
JUL ’24 649.5 4
K.C. Wheat
DEC ’23 677.75 7.75
MAR ’24 686.25 7
JUL ’24 694.75 6.5
Mpls Wheat
DEC ’23 743.25 12.5
MAR ’24 761.75 8.75
SEP ’24 786.25 4.5
S&P 500
DEC ’23 4258.5 10
Crude Oil
DEC ’23 87.18 -0.9
Gold
DEC ’23 1989 -5.4

  • Crude oil slipped lower this morning, which may be putting some pressure on grains. This may be tied to the fact that Israeli forces did not launch a ground invasion into Gaza over the weekend because they are trying to get hostages out first. The high tensions are likely to keep the crude market volatile.

  • Harvest progress will be slowed this week as a large system moves across the Corn Belt, bringing heavy rain over the next several days.

  • After testing the 100 day moving average last week (around 5.09), December corn has since backed off and is trading below 5.00 again.

  • On this afternoon’s Crop Progress report, US corn harvest is expected to be past the halfway point, and perhaps as much as 60% complete.

  • Both soybean meal and oil were under pressure this morning, weighing on soybeans. Meal has since rallied, making a new daily high for the move, lending support to soybeans, but not enough to rally them above unchanged. Good rains in some of the dry areas of South America may be the culprit. Amazon River water levels remain historically low, however, so more rain will be needed to reverse the dry trend.

  • Feed demand from China should remain strong, with reports that there are 6.3% more hogs on large Chinese farms vs last year.

  • Friday’s Cattle on Feed report showed placements at 106% vs the trade expectation of 98%, which could ultimately affect feed demand.

  • This afternoon’s Crop Progress report is expected to show US soybean harvest about 75% complete.

  • Both Argentina and Australia are said to have received beneficial rains in their wheat growing regions. Each of these nations has been struggling with drought, and while the moisture is welcomed, more will be needed.

  • There is some concern, globally, about lower protein wheat. This may explain why Minneapolis wheat futures are rallying and gaining versus both Chicago and Kansas City contracts.

  • There has been little fresh news out of the Black Sea area, but there are reports that as many as 20 vessels have traveled through Ukraine’s humanitarian corridor so far.

  • Some private analysts now see Australia’s total wheat crop between 26 and 28 mmt – for reference the USDA is estimating 24.5 mmt of production.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: October 23, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 495.25 -0.25
MAR ’24 508.75 -0.25
DEC ’24 519.75 -0.25

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1293.5 -8.75
JAN ’24 1311 -9.25
NOV ’24 1260.25 -7.5

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 585.25 -0.75
MAR ’24 612 -1.5
JUL ’24 642.25 -3.25

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 669 -1
MAR ’24 677.5 -1.75
JUL ’24 687 -1.25

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 736.5 5.75
MAR ’24 755.25 2.25
SEP ’24 781.75 -6.5

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4227.75 -20.75

Crude Oil

DEC ’23 87.6 -0.48

Gold

DEC ’23 1989.8 -4.6

  • Corn is unchanged to slightly lower this morning as trade moves quietly. Notably, prices moved up to the 100-day moving average on Friday but backed off, showing it as important resistance.

  • Crop progress will be released later today, and harvest will have likely crossed the halfway mark, but rains last week could have delayed some work.

  • In a dry area of Argentina, farmers are beginning to shift their plans for an early corn crop to plant soybeans instead on about 494,000 acres.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials as net buyers of corn for the week by 3,821 contracts reducing their net short position to 108,870 contracts.

  • Soybeans are lower this morning as they get dragged down by lower soybean meal while soybean oil trades slightly higher. Crude oil is lower on the day.

  • Soybeans have trended higher over the past few weeks thanks to South American weather and improving soy exports, but harvest is still adding some pressure to the market.

  • Brazilian farmers have planted 29.84% of their 23/24 soybean area which is far below the 37.6% planted at this time last year as drought causes some to wait for better conditions.

  • Last week’s CFTC report showed non-commercials as sellers, flipping their position to a net short one. They sold 4,150 contracts and are now net short 1,984 contracts.

  • The wheat complex is mixed this morning with Chicago relatively unchanged, KC lower, and Minneapolis higher. 

  • There is some pressure on wheat today after beneficial rainfalls fell in drought stricken areas of Argentina which could boost production by millions of tonnes.

  • Ukrainian grain exports have fallen 30% year over year with just 8 mmt exported so far, and wheat making up 4.1 mmt of that, down 6.7% y/y.

  • Friday’s CFTC showed funds as sellers of just 72 contracts of wheat, increasing their net short position to 104,407 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Grain Market Insider: October 20, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • December corn futures ran into a technical buzzsaw to end the week. After trading to the 100-day moving average this morning, futures reversed and closed below the pivotal $5 level.

  • November soybean futures gravitated back toward the $13 level to end the week after trading to and running into resistance at the 100-day moving average again today.

  • Despite losses in soybean futures, soybean meal and soybean oil futures managed to hang onto gains to end the week.

  • After trading higher to start the day, wheat prices found selling pressure to end the trading session and closed lower like both corn and soybeans.

  • To see the current U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast, as well as the South American GRACE-Based Root Zone Soil Moisture Drought Indicator courtesy of NASA and the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. The supportive USDA Supply and Demand report from October 12 had Dec ’23 corn testing that 500 psychological price level, yet so far Dec ’23 has been unable to close above it. That 500 level remains an important resistance area for the trend, and without a close over it, the market remains at risk of continuing to trend sideways to lower, and worst-case scenarios could entail sideways-to-lower trends into the late November to early January window. If Dec ’23 can close above 500, it may aim to test the next resistance near 547. Otherwise, the first support on the downside is the August low of 461. During last summer’s June rally, Grain Market Insider recommended making sales when Dec ’23 was around 624. So, for now, the thought process is to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter, with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by early winter, then Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall and must move them, consider protecting those sold bushels with either July or September ’24 call options.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. The Dec ’24 contract has held up better than Dec ’23 as bear spreading over the last several months has brought increased buying interest into Dec ’24 and other further out contract months. Back in late July, the Dec ’23 contract traded up to a 25-cent premium over Dec ’24. Now, Dec ’24 holds a 28-cent premium over Dec ’23. This bear spreading has the Dec ’24 price up about 28 cents from its year-to-date low. The risk for 2024 prices is the same as for 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a lower trend without further bullish input. Grain Market Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Grain Market Insider recommended buying 560 and 610 Dec ’23 call options ahead of the summer rally, and having those in place, helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700 or 800 that the call options would protect those sold bushels.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Today after a break just above the 100-day moving average (around 5.09) December corn settled back below the five-dollar level at the close. The grain markets as a whole saw reversals into negative territory to end the session. This is despite the continued dryness in Brazil, uncertainty on the war in Israel, and crude oil in an uptrend. After the recent move higher and above some resistance levels, a combination of profit taking, and stops being triggered could explain today’s decline.

  • US corn harvest should be able to make some good progress over the next few days before potential delays next week as a storm system moves through. Nationally, harvest should surpass the halfway mark on Monday’s Crop Progress report.

  • Rumors continue to circulate that China is looking to purchase US corn out of the PNW. Ukraine prices are more competitive, but logistical issues could cause China to turn to the US. The war in Ukraine, though largely old news, is still a factor in global trade. Last night, President Biden made an address and is looking for congress to approve $105 billion in aid for both Ukraine and Israel.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s corn planted area as of October 19 will remain unchanged at 7.3 million hectares for 23/24. Additionally, 19.9% of the corn crop is planted, up 0.5% from last week.

  • The International Grains Council lowered their 23/24 world grain stockpiles to 582 mmt, vs 588 mmt in September. Corn stocks were reduced from 289 mmt to 283 mmt in part due to a smaller production estimate.

Above: The corn market has largely been rangebound since the beginning of August, with only minor short covering moving the market higher until recently.  With the market moving above 490, and now 500, the next resistance level in the range is near the 20-day moving average and the July 31 high of 516 ¼. If the market retreats, initial support below the market remains between 475 – 480 and then near 460.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Front month soybeans have been finding buying interest around the June 2023 low of 1256 ¾, and since the beginning of October, they have also traded largely between 1260 and 1280. The close over 1287 ¼ on October 12 could be a signal that a harvest/fall low is in. In the big picture since May 2023, Nov ’23 has traded in a range from 1256 ¾ on the downside to 1435 on the topside. Last summer, Grain Market Insider did make two sales recommendations in the 1310 – 1360 price window versus Nov ’23. Given that those sales recommendations were made and given that now is not the time of year to be making many sales, if any, Grain Market Insider is content to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter. The focus for strategy right now is to be on the lookout for any call option buying opportunities. If you end up harvesting more bushels than you can store this fall, consider protecting any sold bushels with July or Aug ’24 call options.

  • No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Nov ’24 continues to trade at a discount to Nov ’23. That discount was over 90 cents in late summer yet has stabilized lately to around the 10-20 cent range.  Since July, the Nov ’24 contract has largely traded between 1250 and 1320, so this contract is currently testing the bottom end of that range. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be early winter at the soonest. Currently, Grain Market Insider’s focus is also on watching for any opportunities to recommend buying call options.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans began the day higher but slipped throughout the day for a lower close. This was the second consecutive day that November soybeans reached the 100-day moving average without being able to move or close above it. Soybean meal ended the day lower and soybean oil was higher.

  • Overall, news for soybeans over the course of this week was good between export inspections, crush numbers, export sales, and South American weather. For the week, Nov beans gained 22 cents, Dec meal gained 33.90, and Dec bean oil lost 0.99.

  • Some analysts are estimating that Brazil will produce another massive soybean crop this year with guesses between 162-164 mmt, but so far, the weather has been too dry, causing planting to be delayed, and the overall weather pattern doesn’t offer much moisture at this point.

  • In the US, this week has been mostly dry giving producers an opportunity to get a good chunk of harvest complete before more rains fall again in the coming week. Despite some reports of “better than expected” yields, a prominent crop scout has called the final bean yield at just 49.3 bpa, below the USDA’s last estimate of 49.6 bpa.

Above: Front month soybeans have pierced the upper end of the 1285 – 1323 resistance area and are testing close in resistance at the 50-day moving average. If the market can maintain upward momentum, it would be poised to make a run to test mid-September prices around 1370. Otherwise, to the downside initial support may be found near 1300 and again near 1273. Key support for the move remains down near 1250.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Despite strong gains earlier in the session, US wheat futures closed in negative territory across the board. Wheat was not alone, with lower closes in corn and soybeans too. This is despite a positive close in Paris milling wheat futures, as well as uncertainty over production in the southern hemisphere and any war premium that might be factored in.

  • Brazil’s 23/24 wheat crop is now estimated at 10.5 mmt, which is 5.9% below the previous projection. This is attributed to continued dryness that seems to be getting worse. Some areas of the Amazon River are at the lowest levels in over a century, and if the Amazon basin remains dry, it will keep the central and northern parts of Brazil dry as well.

  • Argentina is receiving some much-needed rains. However, the precipitation will not be a “drought buster” and more will be needed to help their crops. Currently, their wheat crop is rated 47% poor to very poor. That represents a 5% decline in condition since last week’s rating, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.

  • Ukraine’s total grain exports are down 30% year on year as of October 20 (since the season began on July 1). That reflects 8 mmt exported vs 11.5 at the same time last year. Of that total, wheat exports of 4.1 mmt are down 6.7% year on year. But the majority of the decline is in exports of barley and corn, down 31% and 49% respectively.

  • Australia has been dealing with extreme drought in some regions, likely to affect their final production. However, recent rainfall in some of the southern wheat growing areas may help stabilize the overall crop and even increase yields, despite the declines in the western part of the country. Some analysts are now looking for a 26 mmt Australian crop, vs estimates of 23 mmt just a few weeks ago. For reference, Australia’s 10-year average comes in at 26.4 mmt, and 2019 (a drought year) resulted in only a 14.5 mmt harvest.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. The Dec ’23 contract has been in a downtrend since making highs in late July but has found support near 541 following the September 29 Production report and has since been rangebound between 541 and 581 ½. With weak U.S. export demand driven by cheap Russian exports being the dominant headwind, it appears that prices may be finding value in the current trading range. If a bullish catalyst were to enter the market and push prices over 616, it may signal that a fall low is in place, which would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into the winter months. If you are a newer subscriber, Grain Market Insider made sales recommendations in the late June rally around 720, and again earlier this fall near 604. With those two sales, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, with an eye on considering additional sales in the 600 – 650 range. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Currently, July ’24 is trading at a 68-cent premium to the Dec ’23 contract as bear spreading, due to fund positioning and weak fundamentals, has driven the Dec ’23 contract closer to 550, while the July ’24 contract remains near 625. The risk for the July ’24 contract remains the same as for Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for this possibility, and back in June, Grain Market Insider recommended two separate sales that averaged about 720 to take advantage of the brief upswing. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward June’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted a year from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: After its push lower on Sept. 29, December wheat has slowly regained its value and is trading in the same 570 – 618 range it did prior to its break lower. For the market to push through the top side of the range, more bullish input will be needed. If so, the market would be poised to test the 645 – 664 area. If not and the market retreats, initial support could be found near 568 and then down between 547 and 540.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 K.C. wheat crop. The Dec ’23 contract has been in a downtrend since making highs in late July and continues to search for support while trading about 40 cents off the contract lows from July ’21. With weak U.S. export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, being the dominant headwind, the market is in need of bullish input to stabilize and rally prices back higher. If a bullish catalyst were to enter the market and push prices towards 750 it may signal that a fall low is in place, which would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into winter and early spring. Earlier this year, Grain Market Insider made a sales recommendation in the late May rally around 1170. With that sale, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, with an eye on considering additional sales north of 700, and again around 750 – 800.  If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 K.C. wheat. Currently, July ’24 is trading at an 18-cent premium to the Dec ’23 contract, up from a 60-cent discount last July, as bear spreading due to weak fundamentals has driven the Dec ’23 contract closer to its contract lows, while the July ’24 contract remains more elevated as it tests Feb ’22 lows. The risk for the July ’24 contract is much like that for Dec ’23. The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode, and in mid-August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 660 puts to prepare for this possibility. Also, back in July, Grain Market Insider recommended a sale near 800 to take advantage of elevated prices before they eroded further. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward 800, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 K.C. Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted a year from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following K.C. recommendations:

Above: Since the end of September, K.C. wheat has been consolidating with initial support just below the market near the September 12 low of 655. If the market retreats lower and breaks through 655, the next levels of support come in around 630 and 575. Initial resistance to the upside may be found around 700 and again near 722.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. The Dec ’23 contract has been in a downtrend since making highs in late July and continues to search for support while showing signs of being oversold. With weak U.S. export demand driven by cheap Russian exports being the dominant headwind, the market is in need of bullish input to stabilize and rally prices back higher. If a bullish catalyst were to enter the market and push prices towards 800, it may signal that a fall low is in place, which would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into winter. Earlier this year, Grain Market Insider made a sales recommendation during the July rally near 820. With that sale, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter with an eye on considering additional sales around 750 – 800, and again north of 825. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat.  In the last three months, the Sep ’24 contract has gone from a 60 – 80 discount to Dec ’23, to a nearly 60-cent premium. Weak fundamentals led bear spreading to drive Dec ’23 in search of new contract lows, while Sep ’24 remains nearly 30 cents off its low from last June. The risk for the Sep ’24 contract is much like that of Dec ’23.  The market needs bullish input to move prices higher, and without it, prices may continue to erode. In mid-August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July K.C. 660 puts (for their greater liquidity, and correlation to Minneapolis pricing) to prepare for this possibility, and back in July, Grain Market Insider recommended a sale near 815 to take advantage of elevated prices. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward 800, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further. Grain Market Insider will then be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: For much of September, December Minneapolis wheat was rangebound, and the breakout to the downside on September 29 set the market up to test support near 665, the May ’21 low. Since then, the market has been consolidating upward, with initial support between 711 and 708. If prices continue higher, initial resistance remains between 745 – 760.

Other Charts / Weather

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Midday Update: October 20, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
DEC ’23 504.75 -0.25
MAR ’24 517.5 0.5
DEC ’24 526.25 1.25
Soybeans
NOV ’23 1312.75 -2.75
JAN ’24 1328.5 -3.25
NOV ’24 1271.75 2.75
Chicago Wheat
DEC ’23 599.75 5.75
MAR ’24 627.25 7.5
JUL ’24 657.25 9.5
K.C. Wheat
DEC ’23 684.5 8.25
MAR ’24 692.5 8
JUL ’24 700.5 8
Mpls Wheat
DEC ’23 743.75 4.75
MAR ’24 765.75 4.25
SEP ’24 790.5 2.25
S&P 500
DEC ’23 4260.5 -42.5
Crude Oil
DEC ’23 89.49 1.12
Gold
DEC ’23 2006.7 26.2

  • Corn is trading higher at midday with support coming from the wheat complex as global weather issues drive prices higher. December corn closed above 5 dollars yesterday for the first time in over two months.

  • There have been rumors of China looking to buy US corn out of the PNW despite Ukrainian offers that are cheaper, but shipping issues could be the reason that China is looking to the US.

  • Israel sent more rockets into Gaza last night as war and tension in the Middle East continues to ramp up with crude oil having a higher yet relatively mild reaction to the fighting.

  • The EIA reported that ethanol production and blending demand are both higher for the week with ethanol production at the highest levels in over a month, indicating strong demand.

  • Soybeans are slightly lower but have come back from their early morning lows which saw November futures down as much as 9 cents. Soybean meal is lower, while soybean oil is higher along with crude.

  • Exports are still behind last year but are picking up, with last week’s sales a marketing year high at 50 mb. China has been a buyer with another sale of 4.85 mb announced yesterday.

  • Soybean meal has trended higher after the drought last season that severely cut Argentina’s soybean meal production and caused US exports of meal to increase significantly.

  • Some analysts are estimating that Brazil will produce another massive soybean crop this year with guesses between 162-164 mmt, but so far the weather has been too dry, causing planting to be delayed, and the overall weather pattern doesn’t look great at this point.

  • Wheat is leading the grain complex today, offering support to corn as major wheat producing countries deal with adverse weather that could impact global supplies.

  • Rumors continue to circulate that China is purchasing more soft red wheat from the US which could be true considering that Ukraine is having difficulty exporting, and that China has been a more active buyer of both US corn and soybeans.

  • The Brazilian 23/24 wheat crop is seen at just 10.5 mmt, down 5.9% from the previous estimate due to dryness. Argentina’s wheat crop is now rated 47% poor to very poor due to drought, up 5 points from last week.

  • The Australian wheat crop is expected to fall by 40% to 45% this year due to drought, and India’s production is expected to fall as well, which may cause them to become a net importer.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: October 20, 2023

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 506 1
MAR ’24 517.25 0.25
DEC ’24 525.25 0.25

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1312.25 -3.25
JAN ’24 1328 -3.75
NOV ’24 1265.25 -3.75

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 596.5 2.5
MAR ’24 623 3.25
JUL ’24 651.75 4

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 680.5 4.25
MAR ’24 689.75 5.25
JUL ’24 698.75 6.25

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 740.75 1.75
MAR ’24 760.25 -1.25
SEP ’24 788.25 5.25

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4294.5 -8.5

Crude Oil

DEC ’23 89.62 1.25

Gold

DEC ’23 1994.8 14.3

  • Corn is trading unchanged to slightly higher this morning after its close above 5 dollars in December yesterday for the first time in over two months.

  • Since the WASDE report last week showing the USDA’s guess for the national yield at 173.0 bpa, corn has been in an uptrend gaining over 37 cents from its low.

  • As of last week’s CFTC report which showed funds heavily short by over 100,000 contracts, many of those positions would be underwater by now which could cause more short covering and higher prices.

  • While recent rains have caused water levels on the Mississippi River to improve slightly, the longer term forecast is dry and those low water levels are still a concern.

  • Soybeans are beginning the day lower as the December and January contracts struggle to break above their 100-day moving averages. 

  • Soybean meal is slightly lower while soybean oil is higher, and crush margins overall have improved significantly over the past month driving domestic demand.

  • This week has revealed a number of bullish news pieces with export inspections, NOPA crush, and export sales all stronger than expected. Open interest has increased as well, and Nov beans could be on track for a 30 cent plus gain on the week.

  • Brazilian producers are becoming more concerned with the El Nino pattern which is causing very hot and dry conditions in both Brazil and Argentina, causing a bulk of plantings to be delayed.

  • Wheat is the only commodity trading higher this morning between corn and soybeans with December Chicago wheat challenging the 6-dollar level for the first time in over a month.

  • As in corn, funds hold a very large short position in wheat and with prices seemingly recovering, funds will likely need to short cover.

  • The Brazilian 23/24 wheat crop is seen at just 10.5 mmt, down 5.9% from the previous estimate due to dryness, and Argentina’s wheat crop is now rated 47% poor to very poor due to drought, up 5 points from last week.

  • Australia has been dry as well with its wheat production slashed significantly, but recent rains across the country could improve production by several million tons.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.