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7-08 Opening Update: Grains Flat Following Two Day Slide

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’25 398 0
DEC ’25 413.25 -1
DEC ’26 451.5 0.25

Soybeans

AUG ’25 1020 -1.25
NOV ’25 1016.5 -1
NOV ’26 1047 -0.75

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’25 548.75 1
DEC ’25 569.25 0.75
JUL ’26 607 1.75

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’25 522.5 0
DEC ’25 547.25 0
JUL ’26 594.75 1

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’25 6.31 0.0125
DEC ’25 6.53 0.04
SEP ’26 6.765 0

S&P 500

SEP ’25 6282.5 10.5

Crude Oil

SEP ’25 67.06 0.08

Gold

OCT ’25 3328 -16.7

  • Corn overnight low hit 398 vs Sep; Sep-Dec corn spread held support near -15 as Dalian corn futures dropped to 6-week lows on higher China supply talk.

  • Favorable U.S. Midwest weather during pollination have some looking for harvest lows toward 360; South American supplies weigh on U.S. export outlook.

  • Trump’s tariff hike on S. Korea and Japan adds trade risk; EU corn imports up 4%, while exports down 41% year-over-year.

  • U.S. new crop soybean export sales hit multi-decade lows; Dec-Mar soymeal spread hits record -10.

  • Global oilseed markets active: Dalian soy complex higher, lifting palm and soyoil; Brazil and Argentina soybean stocks above last year.

  • Traders eye EPA ruling on refinery exemptions; EU oilseed and meal imports up 13% and 14% year-over-year.

  • EU protein concerns are boosting talk of stronger milling wheat demand, while a smaller EU corn crop may increase wheat feeding.

  • EU 24/25 wheat exports seen at 21.6 MMT, down 34% from last year; current season exports also down 19% year-over-year.

  • Canadian wheat crop conditions strong: Manitoba 90% good/excellent, Saskatchewan 65% good/excellent, and Alberta 62% good/excellent.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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7-8 End of Day: Corn Slumps to New Lows as Crop Ratings Improve and Weather Stays Favorable

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Selling extended Tuesday, with September corn futures closing below the key $4.00 mark at $3.98. December also posted new contract lows and a low close, pressured by improving crop conditions and bearish technical momentum.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures extended losses, with August down 34¼ cents so far this week. Continued favorable weather across much of the Corn Belt and fresh tariff threats on Japan and South Korea fueled fund selling and risk-off sentiment.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower for a second straight session, pressured by harvest activity, a stronger U.S. dollar, and weakness in corn and soybeans.

  • To see updated U.S. weather forecasts scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw additional selling pressure on Tuesday as better-than-expected crop ratings and technical selling pushed prices to new lows. September corn futures closed at 398 and under the psychological 400 level. December corn posted a new low and low close on the session.

  • USDA crop ratings rose to 74% good-to-excellent, up 1 point from last week and exceeding market expectations for no change. This reinforces sentiment for strong yield potential.

  • Some yield models are now projecting 2–5% above-trend yields, which would imply a record U.S. corn crop if realized.

  • USDA announced a flash sale of corn overnight. Mexico purchased 112,776 MT of corn for the 2025-26 marketing year. These are routine sales and expected by the market in this window and have failed to support prices.

  • Brazil’s second crop harvest reached 28%, up from last week but still well behind the five-year average. Wet weather and logistical delays continue to slow progress despite a record crop on the horizon.

Corn Futures Back Near Lower end of Recent Range
Front-month corn futures struggled throughout June, breaking key support and leaving an unfilled chart gap following the roll to September. That gap near 430 now stands as the first upside target. On the downside, the late June low of 404 offers initial support, with stronger support seen at 394.

Above: Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower again with the August contract losing 34-1/4 cents just this week so far. Good weather for the bulk of the Corn Belt so far has added pressure along with additional tariffs on Japan and South Korea. Both situations have spurred funds to sell and adopt a risk-off mentality. Soybean meal was lower while soybean oil followed crude higher.

  • Crop ratings held steady at 66% good-to-excellent, 2 points below a year ago. Blooming progress reached 32% (vs. 31% avg), and 8% of the crop is setting pods (vs. 6% avg).

  • Exporters reported a sale of 144,000 MT of soybean meal to the Philippines, split between the 2024/25 and 2025/26 marketing years.

  • Yesterday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of 23,023 contracts of soybeans which left them with a net long position of just 425 contracts, but they likely hold a net short position with the action this week. Funds sold 4,908 contracts of bean oil and 21,858 contracts of meal.

Soybeans Retreat from Recent Highs
Soybeans failed to close above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A breakout above 1082 would open the door toward filling the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. Soybean futures found support last week at the 200-day moving average and the bottom end of the recent range near 1030. A break below the 200-day would likely open the door to a test of the April lows near 980.

Above: Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower again today, continuing yesterday’s downward momentum. Spillover from corn and soybeans, a rising U.S. dollar, and winter wheat harvest pressure are all factors in the lower trade.

  • Crop Progress: Winter wheat ratings held steady at 48% good/excellent, with 53% of the crop harvested—slightly behind the 5-year average. Spring wheat ratings fell 3 points to 50% G/E; 61% of the crop is now headed.

  • SovEcon has increased their estimate of 25/26 Russian wheat exports by 2.1 mmt to 42.9 mmt. This comes not long after the Russian ag ministry temporarily removed the wheat export duty. For reference the USDA is using an estimate of 45 mmt of Russian wheat exports.

  • The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service is estimating Turkey’s 25/26 wheat imports will total 10.3 mmt. This is 2.75 mmt above the last USDA WASDE forecast.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2027 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
A sharp rally in mid-June was short lived for Chicago wheat futures. Prices have now returned back to the upper end of the range that has held prices for much of 2025. Initial support is at the June low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a test of the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2027 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Struggles Above Major Moving Averages
Strength in June pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness late in June sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75.

Above: Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat on the Move Higher
Spring wheat futures spent nearly all of June above the upper end of the previous range and above a confluence of major moving averages. The first resistance and upside target would be the June high near 665. Key support now sits at the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that level — and especially beneath the May low of 572.50 — would open the door to further downside risk.

Above: Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

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7-8 Midday: Weakness in Grains Continues at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
SEP ’25 402 -1.5
DEC ’25 418 -2.75
DEC ’26 454.25 -1.75
Soybeans
AUG ’25 1028.5 -3
NOV ’25 1021.25 0.5
NOV ’26 1051.5 1
Chicago Wheat
SEP ’25 549.5 1
DEC ’25 570.25 0
JUL ’26 606 -2
K.C. Wheat
SEP ’25 525 -2.5
DEC ’25 549.75 -2.25
JUL ’26 595.75 -2
Mpls Wheat
SEP ’25 6.31 -0.0625
DEC ’25 6.52 -0.05
SEP ’26 6.77 0.02
S&P 500
SEP ’25 6272.5 -3.5
Crude Oil
SEP ’25 66.78 0.29
Gold
OCT ’25 3331 -39.7

  • Corn futures are lower at midday, pressured by bearish weather and improvements to corn ratings.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed that corn ratings improved 1% to 74% good-to-excellent. This compares to 68% good-to-excellent at the same time last year.

  • According to AgRural, Brazil’s corn harvest is now 28% complete, up 10% from last week but down from 63% at this time a year ago.

  • Soybean prices continue to trend lower at midday as US weather remains friendly for growing conditions.

  • Monday’s Crop Progress report saw soybean ratings unchanged at 66% good-to-excellent, down from 68% during the same period a year ago.

  • Brazil’s soybean exports have eclipsed last year’s record pace by 3% at 67.4 mmt. China has imported 47.6 mmt from Brazil since February which has added to competition pressure for the US.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower at midday pressured by weakness in the rest of the grain market.

  • Winter wheat harvest now stands at 53% complete, below 62% at this time last year. Winter wheat conditions were unchanged from last week at 48% good-to-excellent

  • Spring wheat ratings fell 3% to 50% good-to-excellent and well below last year’s rating of 75% good-to-excellent.

  • Two grain ships were attacked in the Red Sea this week, which could lead to some support if concerns rise over shipping risks.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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7-08 Opening Update: Grains Lower Again This Morning as Selling Pressure Continues

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time


Corn

SEP ’25 401.25 -2.25
DEC ’25 417.5 -3.25
DEC ’26 455 -1

Soybeans

AUG ’25 1025.25 -6.25
NOV ’25 1018 -2.75
NOV ’26 1048.25 -2.25

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’25 544.75 -3.75
DEC ’25 566 -4.25
JUL ’26 605 -3

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’25 522.75 -4.75
DEC ’25 547.25 -4.75
JUL ’26 594.5 -3.25

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’25 6.325 -0.0475
DEC ’25 6.5425 -0.0275
SEP ’26 6.75 0

S&P 500

SEP ’25 6284.75 8.75

Crude Oil

SEP ’25 66.41 -0.08

Gold

OCT ’25 3360.8 -9.9

  • Corn is trading lower again this morning and is now just 1 cent off contract lows in the September contract following Crop Progress ratings showing the corn crop improving again. Yesterday’s new tariff announcement has not been friendly either.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress showed good to excellent ratings for corn improving 1 point to 73%, and poor to very poor ratings were reduced to just 5% of the crop. 18% of the crop is silking.

  • Yesterday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of corn as of July 1 by 24,181 contracts. This increased their net short position to 206,463 contracts, although it is likely now much larger after yesterday’s move.

  • Soybeans are lower to start the day with front month August leading the way lower and prices now near recent support. Soybean meal is dragging prices lower while soybean oil has recovered a bit and is trading higher.

  • The Crop Progress report showed soybean crop ratings unchanged from last week at 66% good to excellent which is 2 points below a year ago at this time. 32% of the crop is blooming and 8% is now setting pods.

  • Yesterday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of 23,023 contracts of soybeans which left them with a net long position of just 425 contracts. Funds sold 4,908 contracts of bean oil and sold 21,858 contracts of meal.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower with KC wheat leading the way down. Despite declines in crop conditions and a falling US dollar, funds continue to short the grain markets.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw winter wheat good to excellent ratings unchanged at 48% while spring wheat conditions fell again by 3 points to 50%, down from 75% a year ago at this time. 61% of the spring wheat crop is headed while 53% of winter wheat is now harvested.

  • Yesterday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of 1,596 contracts of Chicago wheat leaving them short 63,071 contracts. They bought back 1,114 contracts of KC wheat leaving them short 42,348 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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7-7 End of Day: Grains Start Week Lower on Trade Disappointment, Weather Pressure

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures came under strong selling pressure to start the week, with December closing at a new contract low and posting double-digit losses after Sunday night’s open.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures closed sharply lower after gapping down Sunday night and weakening throughout Monday’s session. Markets were disappointed by the lack of a trade announcement during President Trump’s Iowa speech.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower alongside the broader grain complex, though losses were less severe than corn and soybeans.

  • To see updated U.S. weather forecasts scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Strong selling pressure in the corn markets to start the week as the December corn market posted a new contract low close on the session. Corn futures posted double-digit losses, starting from the open on Sunday night.

  • Last week’s pre-holiday short covering rally faded after President Trump’s July 3 speech failed to deliver on rumored trade deal announcements, disappointing markets.

  • Trump also threatened 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea by August 1 unless they open more to U.S. exports—concerning given their role as key U.S. corn buyers.

  • Weekly export inspections remain strong as U.S. exporters shipped 1.491 MMT (58.7 mb) of corn for the week ending July 3. This was near the top end of expectations and total corn exports are running 30% ahead of last year.

  • Weather forecasts remain friendly for corn development going into later July. Expectations are for USDA crop rating to maintain the 73% good/excellent rating on Monday’s crop condition report.

Corn Futures Back Near Lower end of Recent Range
Front-month corn futures struggled throughout June, breaking key support and leaving an unfilled chart gap following the roll to September. That gap near 430 now stands as the first upside target. On the downside, the late June low of 404 offers initial support, with stronger support seen at 394.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply lower after gapping lower last night and continuing to fade into today’s close. Traders had anticipated a trade announcement from President Trump on Friday when he spoke in Iowa, but none was announced. Both soybean meal and oil were lower despite higher crude prices.

  • The announcement of 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea added pressure to grain and equity markets. Ongoing favorable weather and crop conditions, combined with fears of large ending stocks and weaker exports, fueled bearish sentiment.

  • Today’s Export Inspections report saw soybean inspections within trade estimates but towards the higher end of guesses at 14.3 million bushels for the week ending July 3. This put total inspections for 24/25 at 1.700 bb, which is up 11% from the previous year.

  • Argentina has now completed its soybean harvest and has also updated its production, citing better-than-expected yields. The country is said to have produced 50.3 mmt, which is slightly above last year’s 50.2 mmt.

Soybeans Retreat from Recent Highs
Soybeans failed to close above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A breakout above 1082 would open the door toward filling the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. Soybean futures found support last week at the 200-day moving average and the bottom end of the recent range near 1030. A break below the 200-day would likely open the door to a test of the April lows near 980.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed lower alongside the broader grain complex, though losses were less severe than corn and soybeans. Disappointment over the lack of a trade announcement from President Trump and continued favorable U.S. weather weighed on prices.

  • Weekly wheat export inspections totaled 16 mb, bringing 2025/26 cumulative inspections to 64.6 mb, up 1% from last year and on pace to meet USDA’s 825 mb export projection.

  • Indonesia signed an MoU with the U.S. to purchase at least 800,000 mt of wheat in 2025 and 1 mmt annually through 2030. As the world’s second-largest wheat importer, this could support long-term demand.

  • According to IKAR, Russian wheat export values ended last week at $225 per mt, which is up $3 from the week before. SovEcon also reported that Russia’s wheat exports last week totaled just 100,000 mt compared with 190,000 mt the previous week. In related news, the Russian ag ministry removed the wheat export tax between July 9-15, attempting to increase sales.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has reported Argentine wheat plantings for 25/26 have reached 78.2% complete. This is up just 5.5% from last week, as progress has been said to be delayed by recent rains.

  • The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is projecting 25/26 global grain production at a record 2.93 billion tons. Total grain stocks are estimated at 889.1 mmt, up from 869.5 mmt last year. Wheat stocks in particular are forecast at 321.0 mmt, which is up 11 mmt from the June estimate.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2027 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
A sharp rally in mid-June was short lived for Chicago wheat futures. Prices have now returned back to the upper end of the range that has held prices for much of 2025. Initial support is at the June low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a test of the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2027 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Struggles Above Major Moving Averages
Strength in June pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness late in June sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat on the Move Higher
Spring wheat futures spent nearly all of June above the upper end of the previous range and above a confluence of major moving averages. The first resistance and upside target would be the June high near 665. Key support now sits at the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that level — and especially beneath the May low of 572.50 — would open the door to further downside risk.

Other Charts / Weather

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7-7 Midday: Grains Pressured by Friendly Weather Forecast

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
SEP ’25 410.25 -10
DEC ’25 427 -10
DEC ’26 459.5 -5
Soybeans
AUG ’25 1032.75 -22.75
NOV ’25 1021.75 -27.5
NOV ’26 1051.5 -20
Chicago Wheat
SEP ’25 549.75 -7
DEC ’25 571.75 -6.5
JUL ’26 609 -7.25
K.C. Wheat
SEP ’25 526.5 -9.5
DEC ’25 551.25 -9.5
JUL ’26 596.75 -10
Mpls Wheat
SEP ’25 6.3925 -0.08
DEC ’25 6.5975 -0.07
SEP ’26 6.8375 0
S&P 500
SEP ’25 6285.75 2.25
Crude Oil
SEP ’25 65.92 0.77
Gold
OCT ’25 3354.4 -19.8

  • Corn futures remained under pressure at midday after gapping lower on Sunday night’s open. Forecasts calling for timely rainfall across the Corn Belt this week—just as pollination begins for many fields—are weighing heavily on the market.

  • The USDA reported private export sales of 135,000 metric tons (MT) of corn to Mexico. Of the total, 29,000 MT are scheduled for delivery during the 2024/25 marketing year, while 106,000 MT are for 2025/26 delivery.

  • Corn demand remains strong, with ethanol production running above seasonal norms and exports up 27% year-over-year. As of last week, $4.20 corn in Iowa yielded $5.92 in product value, reflecting solid margins. USDA reports 2.213 billion bushels shipped so far in 2024-25, keeping pace to meet the 2.650 bb export target by August 31.

  • Soybean futures are sharply lower at midday after gapping lower on the Sunday night market open.

  • Ongoing uncertainty around trade talks with China and other Asian countries continues to pressure U.S. soybean prices. The key test will be China’s buying activity this fall. A positive sign: August FOB soybean prices in Brazil remain 36 cents per bushel higher than in the U.S., despite Brazil’s record harvest earlier this year.

  • Last Monday, USDA estimated one bushel of $10.31 soybeans in Illinois could yield $12.73 in products—an incentive for continued strong crush demand.

  • Wheat futures opened the week lower across all classes, tracking weakness in corn and soybean markets.

  • Concerns remain over dry, hot conditions impacting the Russian wheat crop, while forecasts for rain and cooler temperatures in Europe and Ukraine offer some relief to their recent heat stress.

  • USDA’s estimate of 10 million U.S. spring wheat acres marks the lowest since 1970, as dry conditions in Montana and parts of Canada raise further concerns. As of last Monday, just 53% of the crop was rated good to excellent—well below the 72% rating from a year ago.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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7-07 Opening Update: Grains Sharply Lower to Start Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’25 407.75 -12.5
DEC ’25 424.25 -12.75
DEC ’26 457.25 -7.25

Soybeans

AUG ’25 1036.75 -18.75
NOV ’25 1028.75 -20.5
NOV ’26 1059 -12.5

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’25 544.25 -12.5
DEC ’25 566.25 -12
JUL ’26 605 -11.25

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’25 524.25 -11.75
DEC ’25 549 -11.75
JUL ’26 594.25 -12.5

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’25 6.3925 -0.08
DEC ’25 6.595 -0.0725
SEP ’26 6.8375 0

S&P 500

SEP ’25 6304.75 21.25

Crude Oil

SEP ’25 65.48 0.33

Gold

OCT ’25 3342.9 -31.3

  • Corn is trading sharply lower this morning and gapped down in overnight trade following the holiday weekend. Traders were anticipating an announcement from President Trump regarding trade in Iowa which did not come.

  • Last week on Wednesday and Thursday, futures moved significantly higher on likely short covering but also on some expectation of friendly news. Instead, weather forecasts remain bearish with good amounts of moisture.

  • Last week, export sales were good for corn at 1,473k tons which compared to 1,047k the previous week and 669k tons the previous year. Top buyers were Mexico, South Korea, and Colombia.

  • Soybeans are significantly lower along with the rest of the grain complex following the absence of an announced trade deal, but also worrying traders is the upcoming tariffs in which the original pause is approaching its deadline. Both soybean meal and oil are lower as well.

  • Argentina has now completed its soybean harvest and has also updated its production citing better than expected yields. The country is said to have produced 50.3 mmt which is slightly above last year’s 50.2 mmt.

  • Last week’s export sales for soybeans were below expectations at 701k tons but larger than last week’s 559k and last year’s 379k. Top buyers were unknown destinations, Egypt, and Mexico.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning but are not faring quite as poorly as corn and soybeans so far. The winter wheat harvest is behind schedule but is still pressuring the market, and spring wheat received needed rains over the weekend.

  • According to the Food an Agriculture Organization, global grain production is expected to come in at a record high for the 25/26 season as supplies are seen to be large enough to meet demand. Wheat stockpiles are estimated at 321.0 mmt which was up 11m tons from the previous forecast.

  • Last week’s export sales report saw wheat sales at 586k tons which compared to 255k the previous week and 805k tons the previous year. Top buyers were the Philippines, Thailand, and the Dominican Republic.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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7-3 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans Finish Higher; Wheats Lower Heading into the Holiday Weekend

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Friday, July 4, in Observance of Independence Day

 

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures extended gains Thursday on follow-through buying and support from firm export demand, including a flash sale to unknown destinations. Traders also trimmed short positions ahead of President Trump’s remarks in Iowa, while attention is expected to shift back to weather-driven trade post-holiday as the corn crop approaches key grain fill stages.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended higher Thursday despite favorable weather, as funds continued buying ahead of a possible trade deal announcement from President Trump. A strong export sales report and passage of the 2025 budget bill including 45Z biodiesel support added to the day’s bullish tone.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat closed lower Thursday, under pressure from winter wheat harvest activity, technical resistance, and a rebound in the U.S. Dollar Index — all of which weighed on momentum, even as corn and soybeans finished higher.

  • To see updated U.S. weather forecasts scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures saw some follow-through buying on Thursday after Wednesday’s strong price action. Corn futures prices softened off session highs but managed to hold support at the end of the day. A bump in export demand and firm export sales supported the corn market during the session.

  • Grain markets anticipated President Trump’s remarks in Iowa on July 3. Traders have likely trimmed short positions for the prospects of some trade announcement by the President during his speech.

  • USDA released weekly export sales totals on Thursday morning. For the week ending June 26, US exporters reported new net sales of 532,700 MT (21 mb) for the 2024/2025 marketing year. This was down 28% from last week. For the new crop, exporters reported new net sales of 940,200 MT (37 mb) for 2025/2026 for the marketing year. For the 2024-25 marketing year, total sales have reached 2.681 BB, which is 6 mb above the USDA target of 2.675 BB for the marketing year.

  • The USDA announced a flash export sale of corn on Thursday. Unknown destinations purchased 150,000 MT (5.9 mb) of corn for the 2024-25 marketing year. With recent price weakness and soft US dollar, US corn has become more competitive in the export market.

  • After the 4th of July weekend, the market will shift back to weather for the second half of July into August. This will be a key time for grain fill in corn and soybean crops. If the weather forecast remains favorable for crops, sellers will likely step back into the market.

Corn Futures Break Lower end of Recent Range
Front-month corn futures struggled throughout June, breaking key support and leaving an unfilled chart gap following the roll to September. That gap near 430 now stands as the first upside target. On the downside, last week’s low of 404 offers initial support, with stronger support seen at 394.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: Next cash sale at 1107 vs August.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher with the majority of gains in the front months after prices faded from earlier highs. Funds have been buyers the past two days despite good weather as they anticipate a potential trade deal announcement from President Trump. Soybean meal ended the day higher while bean oil followed crude lower.

  • Today’s export sales report was friendly for soybeans with the USDA reporting an increase of 17.0 million bushels for 24/25 and 8.8 mb for 25/26. This was up 15% from the previous week and up 62% from the prior 4-week average. Top buyers were unknown destinations, Egypt, and the United Kingdoms. Last week’s export shipments of 9.2 mb were below the 14.0 mb needed each week to meet USDA estimates.

  • Today, the House voted to pass the 2025 budget bill which included 45Z framework for biodiesel. With the 4th of July holiday tomorrow, the markets will re-open Sunday night, and we will see how the soybean oil market reacts.

  • For the week, July soybeans gained 28-1.2 cents at $10.56-1/4 while November soybeans gained 24-3/4 cents to $10.64-1/2. August soybean meal gained $1.80 to $277.40 while August soybean oil gained 2.07 cents to 54.55 cents.

Soybeans Retreat from Recent Highs
Soybeans failed to close above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A breakout above 1082 would open the door toward filling the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. Soybean futures found support last week at the 200-day moving average and the bottom end of the recent range near 1030. A break below the 200-day would likely open the door to a test of the April lows near 980.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed in the red, despite a positive finish for corn and soybeans. It appears a combination of winter wheat harvest pressure and futures running into technical resistance caused wheat to lose upward momentum today. A rebound for the US Dollar Index was also unsupportive.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 21.5 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26. Shipments last week at 20.3 exceeded the 15.8 mb pace needed per week to reach their 825 mb export goal. Total 25/26 export commitments have risen to 264 mb, up 4% from last year.

  • President Trump is expected to speak tonight in Des Moines, Iowa. Producers are hopeful that he may announce progress towards a trade deal with China. With markets closed tomorrow for the 4th of July, this could lead to a volatile trade early next week.

  • According to the USDA, as of July 1, an estimated 24% of the winter wheat area is experiencing drought conditions, up 4% from last week. Spring wheat areas in drought also increased 4% during that period, to 29%. Expanding dryness in the northwestern US has caused some concerns about spring wheat crop conditions.tails remain limited, broader trade optimism added support to grain markets.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 675 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2027 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
A sharp rally in mid-June was short lived for Chicago wheat futures. Prices have now returned back to the upper end of the range that has held prices for much of 2025. Initial support is at the June low of 522.25, with a break below that exposing further downside toward 506.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could spark a test of the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if July closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: Target 693 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2027 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Struggles Above Major Moving Averages
Strength in June pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness late in June sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75.

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Six sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 684.

    • Changes:

      • There is likely to be no further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. The 2024 wheat crops will drop off the report next week.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat on the Move Higher
Spring wheat futures spent nearly all of June above the upper end of the previous range and above a confluence of major moving averages. The first resistance and upside target would be the June high near 665. Key support now sits at the 200-day moving average near 607. A close below that level — and especially beneath the May low of 572.50 — would open the door to further downside risk.

Other Charts / Weather

US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

US 6 to 10-day temperate outlook courtesy of NOAA.

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7-3 Midday: Bullish Momentum Continues to Move Grains Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing Offices will be closed Friday, July 4, in Observance of Independence Day

 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
SEP ’25 421.5 3.5
DEC ’25 437.75 4.25
DEC ’26 467 4
Soybeans
AUG ’25 1058.75 5.25
NOV ’25 1053 5
NOV ’26 1071.5 4.25
Chicago Wheat
SEP ’25 563.5 -0.5
DEC ’25 584.5 0.5
JUL ’26 619.5 2
K.C. Wheat
SEP ’25 541.5 -0.75
DEC ’25 565.75 -0.25
JUL ’26 610.5 0.5
Mpls Wheat
SEP ’25 6.475 -0.015
DEC ’25 6.6575 -0.015
SEP ’26 6.855 0
S&P 500
SEP ’25 6325 50
Crude Oil
SEP ’25 65.31 -0.7
Gold
OCT ’25 3362.9 -24.6

  • The USDA announced a flash sale of corn this morning, totaling 150,000 mt. It was sold to an unknown destination for the 24/25 marketing year.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 21.0 mb of corn export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 37.0 mb for 25/26.

  • This evening, President Trump will speak in Des Moines, Iowa. Traders are hopeful for an announcement of progress being made towards a trade deal with China.

  • Spec traders are estimated to have purchased around 16,000 corn contracts yesterday, which would reduce the fund net-short position to around 165,000 contracts.

  • This morning the USDA announced a flash sale of soybeans, in the amount of 226,000 mt, sold to an unknown destination for the 24/25 marketing year. There was also a sale of 195,000 mt of soybean meal to unknown.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 17.0 mb of soybean export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 8.8 mb to 25/26.

  • Yesterday President Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, which has added to the bullish move in the markets. Vietnam is one of the top 10 buyers of US soybeans and meal.

  • Traders will be watching for the vote on the “big beautiful” budget bill. It passed the Senate and moves onto the House of Representatives today. It includes the structure for biofuel tax incentives, which will impact soybean oil.

  • Both winter wheat futures classes are at or near moving average technical resistance. In addition to harvest pressure, this may help to explain why it is lagging behind corn and soybean futures at midday.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 21.5 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26, and 0 mb for 26/27.

  • Reportedly, there are growing concerns in Kansas about the prevalence of wheat streak mosaic virus, which could ultimately impact yields.

  • Spring wheat areas in the northwestern US are seeing expanding drought readings. This has helped MIAX spring wheat futures to rally about 30 cents in the past couple of sessions on concerns about declining crop conditions.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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7-03 Opening Update: Corn and Soybeans Higher Ahead of Holiday Weekend

ByRyan Mainville

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’25 422 4
DEC ’25 438.25 4.75
DEC ’26 465.5 2.5

Soybeans

AUG ’25 1057.75 4.25
NOV ’25 1052 4
NOV ’26 1071.5 4.25

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’25 563.75 -0.25
DEC ’25 584 0
JUL ’26 619 1.5

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’25 543.25 1
DEC ’25 567 1
JUL ’26 611.5 1.5

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’25 6.54 0.05
DEC ’25 6.7275 0.055
SEP ’26 6.855 0

S&P 500

SEP ’25 6279.75 4.75

Crude Oil

SEP ’25 65.82 -0.19

Gold

OCT ’25 3393.5 6

  • Corn is trading higher this morning as optimism continues over various trade deals either being completed or in the works which could improve demand for US grains. Prices have backed off the overnight highs slightly.

  • US corn used for ethanol came in at 449.4 million bushels in May which was up from April but down 1.3% from a year ago at this time.

  • Due to the 4th of July holiday, the Commitment of Traders will not be released until Monday, but funds are estimated to have bought 15,500 contracts of corn yesterday and an estimated 29,500 contracts total over the past 5 days.

  • Soybeans are trading higher along with corn on bullish momentum that comes despite beneficial weather recently through most of the Corn Belt. Soybean meal is higher while bean oil is lower along with crude oil.

  • In India, palm oil imports shot higher by 61% to hit an 11-month high for the month of June as a result of lower domestic inventories. This is bullish for all veg oils.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 400k and 900k tons with an average guess of 594k tons. This would compare to 559k a week ago and 320k tons the previous year.

  • Wheat is mixed to start the day with Chicago and KC slightly lower but looking to turn positive while Minneapolis is higher. Falling crop conditions have helped markets move higher despite the ongoing winter wheat harvest.

  • More rain is expected to fall this week in soft red wheat areas which could delay harvest at times. Europe is currently experiencing a heat wave which could slow harvest there as well.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 200k and 60ok tons with an average guess of 334k tons. This would compare to 255k last week and 805k tons the previous year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

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