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11-28 End of Day: Beans and Wheat Close Higher in Typical Turnaround Tuesday Fashion.

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Position squaring and December ’23 liquidation ahead of Thursday’s first notice day likely led to bear spreading in the corn market, as traders sold the December contract versus the deferred contracts.

  • Soybeans followed through to the upside and closed higher on the day with the aid of a 123k mt sale to unknown destinations and support from sharply higher soybean oil.

  • Buying in January soybean oil carried over from Monday’s firmer trade and closed 1.88 cents higher with support coming from sharply higher crude oil. Meanwhile, soybean meal likely succumbed to some long liquidation ahead of first notice day and a fund position that is the largest since last March.

  • While all three wheat classes shed some of the recent weakness and closed higher on the day, KC led the rally which posted a bullish key reversal. 

  • To see the updated US 5 day precipitation forecast and 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks, and the Brazil 2-week forecast precipitation and average temperatures, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Since the beginning of August, the corn market has traded sideways largely between 470 and 500. October’s brief breakout to 509 ½ and the subsequent failure to stay above the 50-day moving average indicates there is significant resistance in that price range. The failure of November’s USDA report to provide a bullish influence on the market puts the market at risk of drifting sideways to lower without a bullish catalyst. During last summer’s June rally, Grain Market Insider recommended making sales when Dec ’23 was around 624. So, for now, the thought process is to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter, with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by early winter, then Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Since late February ’22, Dec ’24 has been bound by 489 ¾ on the bottom and 600 on the top. After testing 491 to 547 last July, it has mostly traded between 500 and 525. During this time, Dec ’24 has held up better as bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus Dec ’23 as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty remaining for the 2024 crop. Moving forward, the risk for 2024 prices is the same as for 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a lower trend without further bullish input. Grain Market Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Grain Market Insider recommended buying 560 and 610 Dec ’23 call options ahead of the summer rally and having those in place helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700 or 800 that the call options would protect those sold bushels.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Despite strong buying in other grain markets and the commodity sector in general, corn futures closed mixed on the session. With selling pressure in the front-end contracts, December corn lost 4 cents for the day.

  • The upcoming first notice day for December corn is Thursday, 11/30, and that may have added to the selling pressure since the holder of long corn contracts needs to exit those positions or risk the prospects of delivery.

  • Strong buying in the wheat market and soybean market helped limit the downside in corn futures. Wheat futures shook off earlier session pressure to post positive closes. December corn did test key support at a new low of 450, and that level could be a key psychological price point which could trigger additional support if prices can hold above it.

  • Buying in the crude oil market likely helped support corn prices. Ethanol margins will likely remain supportive based on improved gasoline demand and driving over the past holiday weekend.

  • Corn harvest is basically complete as the USDA reported corn harvest at 96% complete on this week’s Crop Progress report. Hedge pressure should start being minimized as extra supplies that were pushed on to the market are being worked through, and producers are storing bushels to encourage a more supportive cash market.

Above: The nearby corn contract has rejected the 100-day moving average on the daily continuous chart and has slipped below the 50-day moving average. Initial resistance now rests just above the market near 496 with further heavy resistance between 500 and 509 ½. Support below the market remains near 460, with the next major area of support near 415.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, November 21. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net sold 22,016 contracts between November 15 – 21, bringing their total position to a net short 185,502 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. At the end of August, the soybean market turned lower and didn’t find any significant buying interest until it traded down to 1251 in early October. Since then, the nearby contract has traded through the 50-day moving average and tested the August high. Looking back, since last May, nearby soybeans have been in a range from 1435 up top to 1251 down below. Last summer, Grain Market Insider did make two sales recommendations in the 1310 – 1360 price window versus Nov ’23. Seasonally, we are at the time of year when prices tend to rally into year’s end, and if the markets remain firm to higher in the next few weeks, Grain Market Insider may consider suggesting making additional old crop sales, while also continuing to be on the lookout for any call option buying opportunities to help protect current and future sales. 

  • No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the inception of the Nov ’24 contract, it has traded at a discount to the 2023 crop, from as much as 142 back in July, to as little as 17 ¾ in early October during harvest. And while the spread difference between the two crops has seen a good amount of volatility, Nov ’24 has been largely rangebound between 1250 and 1320 since it rallied off its 1116 ¼ low last July. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be early winter at the soonest. Currently, Grain Market Insider’s focus is also on watching for any opportunities to recommend buying call options.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher today as prices rebounded from three previous consecutive lower closes. Soybeans remain in a wide trading range over the past month, with swings a result of changes in Brazilian weather forecasts. Soybean meal ended lower while soybean oil was higher.

  • The prospect of tight US ending stocks in 2024 along with good demand recently, has helped support soybean prices while corn and wheat have slipped to new lows. This morning, a flash sale was reported totaling 123,300 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations for 23/24.

  • While Brazilian weather may be forecast to improve over the next seven days, the hot and dry conditions in the central and northern regions that soybeans were planted may impact final yields. Several private analysts have reduced their estimates for Brazilian production and MB Agro is saying this could lead to a decrease in export potential to 96 mmt from 100 mmt.

  • As of November 21, funds were shown to be long 81,587 contracts of soybeans, a reduction of 6,326 contracts from the previous week. Funds also have a large net long position in soybean meal which is over 137,000 contracts and has helped prices remain elevated.

Above: On November 15, January soybeans posted a bearish reversal after coming within 11 cents of the August high. Since then, the market has retested the recent high and failed, creating a head-and-shoulders pattern which suggests a potential to test October’s 1250 low unless bullish input enters the market. For now, heavy resistance remains between 1400 and 1410, with support below the market near the 50-day moving average and again near 1297.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, November 21. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 6,326 contracts between November 15 – 21, bringing their total position to a net long 81,587 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report showed winter wheat is 91% emerged versus 89%  on average. Additionally, the crop rating improved 2% to 50% good to excellent. This was better than expected and well above last year’s 34% GTE. Nevertheless, wheat rallied today, reversing off yesterday’s lows. Technically, all three US futures classes could be considered oversold, and this may be the start of a correction to the upside.

  • On a bearish note, Russia has said that their grain harvest is now 98% complete with 151 mmt collected. Of that total, 99 mmt is said to be wheat, which is well above the USDA estimate of 90 mmt. If true, given the fact that they are already dominating exports, this would continue to pressure US exports and the futures market.

  • According to the CFTC, between November 14 and November 21, managed funds added nearly 19,000 contracts to their short Chicago wheat position, leaving them net short about 108,000 contracts. This could lead to a significant short covering rally if there is enough new bullish news to act as a catalyst.

  • Severe storms in the Black Sea have resulted in a pause on the loading of grain in both Ukrainian and Russian ports. Additionally, over one million people are said to be without power. The storm is forecasted to last for most of the week with winds up to 90 miles per hour.

  • Wheat harvest in Brazil is nearly complete – CONAB said that as of November 18, 94.2% of the crop has been collected. But in the southern regions, quality is lacking due to the heavy amounts of rain they have received. This is keeping their internal wheat prices on the rise.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. After making a high in late July, nearby Chicago wheat trended lower until finding support at 540 on September 29, from which it rallied back, briefly piercing 600 and the 50-day moving average. The market now appears to be finding value in the 540 – 616 range established since early September, as weak US export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, remains the dominant headwind to higher prices. Grain Market Insider made sales recommendations in the late June rally around 720 and again earlier this fall near 604. With those two sales, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, with an eye on considering additional sales in the 625 – 650 range. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. After retesting the 800 level back in July, new crop Chicago wheat retreated steadily until hitting the late September low of 610 ¼. Since then, prices have been mostly rangebound between 620 and 650.  Just as fund positioning and weak fundamentals have driven old crop prices down closer to the mid to upper 500 range and new crop prices to the low to mid 600s. The risk of further new crop price erosion remains without fresh bullish input to move prices higher. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for this possibility, and back in June, Grain Market Insider recommended two separate sales that averaged about 720 to take advantage of the brief upswing. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels, and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: On November 15 nearby Chicago wheat rolled from the December contract to the March. While it appears that prices made a significant move, it is in fact the premium in March that is being represented on the chart. Upside resistance remains between 604 ½ and 618, while support below the market, remains between 564 and 554.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, November 21. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 18,905 contracts between November 15 – 21, bringing their total position to a net short 108,176 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since late July the nearby KC wheat has been in a downtrend that has had periods of relative stability, but not any significant reversals higher. The market once again found nearby support as it traded to, and held, its recent low of 625 ½. Currently, weak US export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, remains the dominant headwind, and the market is in need of bullish input to stabilize and rally prices back higher. If a bullish catalyst enters the market to push prices above 700, it may signal that a fall low is in place and would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into winter and early spring. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter, as weather becomes a more prominent market mover with an eye on considering additional sales near 750 – 800. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to cover half of the remaining July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts at current market prices, minus fees and commission. Last week Grain Market Insider suggested covering half of the originally recommended July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts at approximately 61 cents in premium minus fees, and commission. At 61 cents, the puts were about double their original cost. In yesterday’s and today’s trading sessions, the July ’24 contract may have found support at about the 630 level. Given the extreme oversold condition of the market, Grain Market Insider recommends covering another half of the remaining position to protect some of the current gains. This recommendation means that 75% of the original position should be closed out, leaving 25% of the original position to continue to provide downside protection in the event the market fails to rally off this 630 area.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The recent resumption of the downtrend has left the KC wheat market oversold with resistance now above the market between 633 and 661. The market’s oversold status can be supportive if a catalyst enters the market to turn prices back higher. Without a bullish catalyst, March ’24 runs the risk of retreating further and testing 575 support. 

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, November 21. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 10,064 contracts between November 15 – 21, bringing their total position to a net short 47,513 contracts.

Winter wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Following last July’s rally, the market has slowly stair-stepped lower, primarily due to low world wheat prices, weak US export demand, and managed fund selling. With the funds building a record large short position as the market sold off. Since weak US export demand remains the main impediment to higher prices, the market continues to be at risk of further downside erosion. The record large fund short position could fuel a rally back higher if a bullish catalyst enters the scene, and if that happens, it may signal that a near-term low is in place. Earlier this year, Grain Market Insider made a sales recommendation during the July rally near 820, and with that sale in place, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation this winter with an eye on considering additional sales around 725 – 775, and again north of 800. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 Spring wheat crop. Since late July, Sept ’24 Mpls wheat has been slowly stair-stepping lower, providing no rallies of substance to sell into. While we see improving conditions in the market that could provide fuel for a bottom and future upside sales opportunities, we also know historically, that if the market breaks support this time of year, it poses the risk that prices could continue to trend overall lower into spring of next year. All that said, a close below 743 support would signal that a trend lower into next year is a risk. Although Grain Market Insider still looks for higher prices, we know from our historical research the importance of having a “plan b” this time of year. With a daily close below 743, Grain Market Insider will recommend selling a portion of your 2024 crop while prices are still relatively elevated and historically good in case they erode further. While the mid-700s may not be the 1000 or higher that we’ve seen in the last two years, it remains much better than the possible 500 – 600 that the market saw back in 2020 and early 2021. 

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to cover half of the remaining July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts at current market prices, minus fees and commission. Last week Grain Market Insider suggested covering half of the originally recommended July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts at approximately 61 cents in premium, minus fees and commission. At 61 cents, the puts were about double their original cost. In yesterday’s and today’s trading sessions, the July ’24 contract may have found support at about the 630 level. Given the extreme oversold condition of the market, Grain Market Insider recommends covering another half of the remaining position to protect some of the current gains. This recommendation means that 75% of the original position should be closed out, leaving 25% of the original position to continue to provide downside protection in the event the market fails to rally off this 630 area.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Since the nearby contract rolled from the December to the March, prices have steadily declined through the October low of 703 ¼ and may be on track to test major support near the May ’21 low of 669. If prices turn back higher, resistance now stands between 721 and 740 with heavy resistance near 750.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, November 21. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 118 contracts between November 15 – 21, bringing their total position to a net short 27,608 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Brazil 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Brazil average temperature courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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11-28 Midday: Soybeans and Wheat Recover From Yesterday’s Lows While Corn Lags.

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
DEC ’23 451 -4.5
MAR ’24 472.25 -3
DEC ’24 504.5 0.25
Soybeans
JAN ’24 1345 15.25
MAR ’24 1363.75 15.5
NOV ’24 1293.5 13.25
Chicago Wheat
DEC ’23 534.25 0
MAR ’24 563.75 2.75
JUL ’24 593.75 4.75
K.C. Wheat
DEC ’23 598.75 8.75
MAR ’24 605.5 9
JUL ’24 619.5 9.25
Mpls Wheat
DEC ’23 692 7.5
MAR ’24 707.25 7.5
SEP ’24 732 2.75
S&P 500
DEC ’23 4568 7
Crude Oil
JAN ’24 76.77 1.91
Gold
JAN ’24 2048.2 25.1

  • Corn is trading lower today with continued pressure from yesterday’s selloff as the market prepares for a record large US corn harvest of 15.2 billion bushels.

  • South American weather has turned more favorable for Argentina which has been receiving more rain, and for Brazil, showers are forecast over the next seven days while soaked southern Brazil is expected to get a temporary break from the rain.

  • Brazil is reportedly running 8 to 10 days behind its usual pace of soybean planting at 74% complete, which is slated to delay both the soy harvest and the planting of second crop corn.

  • Demand for US corn has been strong for domestic use and exports with sales and shipments up 25% from a year ago, but the prospect of a 2 billion plus carryout has weighed on prices.

  • Soybeans are trading higher today as they work to regain some of the losses over the past three days. Despite the selloff, soybeans have stayed within their recent range.

  • This morning, private exporters reported sales of 123,300 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 23/24 marketing year.

  • Analysts in Brazil have begun cutting their estimates of soybean production this week with Datagro at 156.6 mmt versus 163.7 mmt a week earlier and Agroconsult at 161.9 mmt versus 169.1 mmt a week ago. Because of this, expectations for export potential have been reduced to 96 mmt from 100 mmt in 2024.

  • Friday’s CFTC data showed non-commercials as sellers of 18,865 contracts of soybeans which decreased their net long position to 108,176 contracts.

  • Wheat is mostly higher with all three classes reversing higher from yesterday’s lows as traders cover short positions on oversold conditions.

  • According to the crop progress report, US winter wheat is now 91% emerged and nearly completely planted. In addition, good to excellent ratings have jumped 2 points to 50% which is the highest in 4 years.

  • A storm in the Black Sea region has halted loadings of crude and grains from key ports in Russia and Ukraine and left more than a million people in the area without power.

  • After more Russian attacks over the weekend, Ukraine is now planning to place convoy vessels in the Black Sea to protect their export corridor.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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11-28 Opening Update: Grains Rebounding After Yesterday’s Selloff

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 456.25 0.75
MAR ’24 476.25 1
DEC ’24 505.5 1.25

Soybeans

JAN ’24 1338.75 9
MAR ’24 1357.25 9
NOV ’24 1286.5 6.25

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 535.25 1
MAR ’24 563.75 2.75
JUL ’24 592.25 3.25

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 593.5 3.5
MAR ’24 600.25 3.75
JUL ’24 614.5 4.25

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 687.5 3
MAR ’24 705.75 6
SEP ’24 735.25 6

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4555.5 -5.5

Crude Oil

JAN ’24 75.68 0.82

Gold

JAN ’24 2025.4 2.3

  • Corn is trading slightly higher this morning as prices generally rebound from yesterday’s selloff in which corn made new contract lows in the March contract.

  • With U.S. corn being the cheapest feed grain in the world right now, exports have picked up and yesterday’s inspections put total inspections 25% higher than a year ago.

  • Argentinian corn is now 26% planted and now that weather has turned more favorable, a large crop is expected, but producers will likely hold off on sales until the President elect officially lowers export taxes.

  • Friday’s CFTC data showed non-commercials selling 22,106 contracts of corn which increased their net short position to 185,502 contracts, the largest short position in over a year.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning in an attempt to shake off yesterday’s losses and move back to the upper end of the trading range. Both soybean meal and oil are higher.

  • The U.S. is still expected to have very tight ending stocks for 23/24 and demand has been firm which has kept soybeans from selling off as much as corn and wheat have.

  • While moisture has improved slightly in central and northern Brazil over the past week, December is forecast to turn drier. Despite this, average trade guesses for Brazil’s soy crop are around 160 mmt.

  • Friday’s CFTC data showed non-commercials as sellers of 18,865 contracts of soybeans which decreased their net long position to 108,176 contracts.

  • Wheat is trading slightly higher this morning after Chicago, KC, and Minn wheat all made new contract lows yesterday due to lack of export demand.

  • Total U.S. wheat export sales are down 9% from this time a year ago and shipments are down even more by 18%. For KC wheat, sales have slipped even more as the U.S. struggles to compete with Russia.

  • A storm in the Black Sea region has halted loadings of crude and grains from key ports in Russia and Ukraine and left more than a million people in the area without power.

  • In Friday’s CFTC report it was shown that non-commercials continued to sell wheat by 18,865 contracts increasing their net short position to 108,176 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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11-27 A Lack of Bullish News Presses Corn and Wheat to Fresh Lows.

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Despite trading firmer in the overnight session, corn futures were pressed to their lowest close in over two years on a lack of fresh news and weak export inspections that came in at a marketing year low.

  • Disappointing export inspections and decent rainfall in some of Brazil’s driest areas weighed heavily on the soybean market which closed mixed and near unchanged following two-sided trade and firmer markets in both products.

  • Both soybean meal and oil closed the day higher with gains lending support to a weak soybean market and raising Board crush margins in the January contracts 15 cents to 192 ½.

  • After trading higher overnight, all three wheat classes followed through on last week’s weakness and traded to fresh contract lows. A lack of bullish news, lower Matif wheat, and year to date export inspections, at 77% of last year’s pace, continue to weigh on prices.

  • To see the updated US 8 – 14 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks and the Brazil and Argentina 2-week forecast precipitation percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Since the beginning of August, the corn market has traded sideways largely between 470 and 500. October’s brief breakout to 509 ½ and the subsequent failure to stay above the 50-day moving average indicates there is significant resistance in that price range. The failure of November’s USDA report to provide a bullish influence on the market puts the market at risk of drifting sideways to lower without a bullish catalyst. During last summer’s June rally, Grain Market Insider recommended making sales when Dec ’23 was around 624. So, for now, the thought process is to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter, with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by early winter, then Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Since late February ’22, Dec ’24 has been bound by 489 ¾ on the bottom and 600 on the top. After testing 491 to 547 last July, it has mostly traded between 500 and 525. During this time, Dec ’24 has held up better as bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus Dec ’23 as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty remaining for the 2024 crop. Moving forward, the risk for 2024 prices is the same as for 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a lower trend without further bullish input. Grain Market Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Grain Market Insider recommended buying 560 and 610 Dec ’23 call options ahead of the summer rally and having those in place helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700 or 800 that the call options would protect those sold bushels.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures pushed to new nearby lows on the trading session to start the week, pressured by strong selling in the wheat market and on-going demand concerns. December corn lost 7 ¾ cents and posted its lowest daily close since July 2021.

  • The weak price action and the overall negative trend keeps pressure on the corn market as bullish news is still limited in a market that is working through the final pieces of this year’s corn harvest.

  • Weekly corn export inspections were below analyst expectations at 407,000 mt (16 mb). Year-over-year, total inspections are up 25% for the marketing year. Last week’s shipping pace was impacted by the Thanksgiving Day Holiday, and water level concerns reoccurring for the Mississippi River.

  • Brazil weather is still a focal point in the markets. Some weather seems to be stabilizing, which has pressured soybean futures. Corn is more likely a longer-term story as delayed soybean planting will push corn planting back on Brazil’s key second corn crop. Argentina weather is improving, and corn and soybean production could return to more “normal” levels than the last two years influenced by drought.

Above: The nearby corn contract has rejected the 100-day moving average on the daily continuous chart and has slipped below the 50-day moving average. Initial resistance now rests just above the market near 496 with further heavy resistance between 500 and 509 ½. Support below the market remains near 460, with the next major area of support near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. At the end of August, the soybean market turned lower and didn’t find any significant buying interest until it traded down to 1251 in early October. Since then, the nearby contract has traded through the 50-day moving average and tested the August high. Looking back, since last May, nearby soybeans have been in a range from 1435 up top to 1251 down below. Last summer, Grain Market Insider did make two sales recommendations in the 1310 – 1360 price window versus Nov ’23. Seasonally, we are at the time of year when prices tend to rally into year’s end, and if the markets remain firm to higher in the next few weeks, Grain Market Insider may consider suggesting making additional old crop sales, while also continuing to be on the lookout for any call option buying opportunities to help protect current and future sales. 

  • No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the inception of the Nov ’24 contract, it has traded at a discount to the 2023 crop, from as much as 142 back in July, to as little as 17 ¾ in early October during harvest. And while the spread difference between the two crops has seen a good amount of volatility, Nov ’24 has been largely rangebound between 1250 and 1320 since it rallied off its 1116 ¼ low last July. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be early winter at the soonest. Currently, Grain Market Insider’s focus is also on watching for any opportunities to recommend buying call options.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day slightly lower in the front months but higher to unchanged in deferred months in a day of mixed trade that saw prices anywhere from 7 cents lower to 7 cents higher. Soybean meal and oil ended the day higher, further improving crush margins.

  • Soybean inspections totaled 53 mb for the week ending Thursday, November 13, which was within the trade range but down slightly from last week. Total inspections for 23/24 are now at 641 mb, which is down 11% from the previous year.

  • In Brazil, showers were reported in the central region of the country over the weekend and temperatures fell slightly, but there still has not been a major soaking rain that is needed, and crop failure is expected to occur in Mato Grosso and other northern states. Southern Brazil has been getting flooded with rain which will likely affect their production as well.

  • While more favorable South American weather has caused soybeans to fall to the low end of their recent trading range, exports have picked up with 16.6 mb of new sales to China and unknown on Friday, and domestic demand has been strong with profitable crush margins.

Above: On November 15, January soybeans posted a bearish reversal after coming within 11 cents of the August high. Since then, the market has retested the recent high and failed, creating a head-and-shoulders pattern which suggests a potential to test October’s 1250 low unless bullish input enters the market. For now, heavy resistance remains between 1400 and 1410, with support below the market near the 50-day moving average and again near 1297.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Another risk off session and lack of fresh news contributed to pressure in the wheat market. All three US futures classes closed with double digit losses, alongside lower Matif futures. March Matif wheat has been lower for eight of the past ten sessions. Today’s lower price action is also despite the US Dollar being in a downtrend.

  • Weekly wheat inspections totaled 10.2 mb, bringing the 23/24 inspection totals to 299 mb. This is down 23% from last year and inspections are running behind the USDA’s estimated pace.

  • Ukraine is doubling down on their export corridor. News outlets are reporting that they are planning to have convoy vessels in place for protection in the Black Sea. With the war raging on, Ukraine has shipped only 12.7 mmt of grain so far this season, versus 17.6 mmt at the same time last year.

  • Argentina’s wheat harvest is reported to be 27% complete. But early drought there, and also in Australia, could mean a combined reduction of 9-12 mmt of exports of wheat globally.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. After making a high in late July, nearby Chicago wheat trended lower until finding support at 540 on September 29, from which it rallied back, briefly piercing 600 and the 50-day moving average. The market now appears to be finding value in the 540 – 616 range established since early September, as weak US export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, remains the dominant headwind to higher prices. Grain Market Insider made sales recommendations in the late June rally around 720 and again earlier this fall near 604. With those two sales, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, with an eye on considering additional sales in the 625 – 650 range. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. After retesting the 800 level back in July, new crop Chicago wheat retreated steadily until hitting the late September low of 610 ¼. Since then, prices have been mostly rangebound between 620 and 650.  Just as fund positioning and weak fundamentals have driven old crop prices down closer to the mid to upper 500 range and new crop prices to the low to mid 600s. The risk of further new crop price erosion remains without fresh bullish input to move prices higher. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for this possibility, and back in June, Grain Market Insider recommended two separate sales that averaged about 720 to take advantage of the brief upswing. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels, and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: On November 15 nearby Chicago wheat rolled from the December contract to the March. While it appears that prices made a significant move, it is in fact the premium in March that is being represented on the chart. Upside resistance remains between 604 ½ and 618, while support below the market, remains between 564 and 554.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since late July the nearby KC wheat has been in a downtrend that has had periods of relative stability, but not any significant reversals higher. The market once again found nearby support as it traded to, and held, its recent low of 625 ½. Currently, weak US export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, remains the dominant headwind, and the market is in need of bullish input to stabilize and rally prices back higher. If a bullish catalyst enters the market to push prices above 700, it may signal that a fall low is in place and would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into winter and early spring. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter, as weather becomes a more prominent market mover with an eye on considering additional sales near 750 – 800. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to cover half of the remaining July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts at current market prices, minus fees and commission. Last week Grain Market Insider suggested covering half of the originally recommended July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts at approximately 61 cents in premium minus fees, and commission. At 61 cents, the puts were about double their original cost. In yesterday’s and today’s trading sessions, the July ’24 contract may have found support at about the 630 level. Given the extreme oversold condition of the market, Grain Market Insider recommends covering another half of the remaining position to protect some of the current gains. This recommendation means that 75% of the original position should be closed out, leaving 25% of the original position to continue to provide downside protection in the event the market fails to rally off this 630 area.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: The recent resumption of the downtrend has left the KC wheat market oversold with resistance now above the market between 633 and 661. The market’s oversold status can be supportive if a catalyst enters the market to turn prices back higher. Without a bullish catalyst, March ’24 runs the risk of retreating further and testing 575 support. 

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. After making highs in July, and the subsequent downtrend to the October 2 low of 707 ½, nearby Minneapolis wheat has traded mostly sideways with no significant reversal higher. With weak US export demand still the primary impediment to higher prices, the market remains at risk of trending lower if September’s low close of 709 is violated to the downside unless another bullish impetus enters the scene. If that happens and prices begin to push back toward 775, it may signal that a near-term low is in place. Earlier this year, Grain Market Insider made a sales recommendation during the July rally near 820, and with that sale in place, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter with an eye on considering additional sales around 750 – 800, and again north of 825. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Even though the primary strategy is to look for higher prices, Grain Market Insider may also consider a “plan b” in the next couple of weeks if prices grind sideways to lower.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your 2024 Spring wheat crop. Since late July, Sept ’24 Mpls wheat has been slowly stair-stepping lower, providing no rallies of substance to sell into. While we see improving conditions in the market that could provide fuel for a bottom and future upside sales opportunities, we also know historically, that if the market breaks support this time of year, it poses the risk that prices could continue to trend overall lower into spring of next year. All that said, a close below 743 support would signal that a trend lower into next year is a risk. Although Grain Market Insider still looks for higher prices, we know from our historical research the importance of having a “plan b” this time of year. With a daily close below 743, Grain Market Insider will recommend selling a portion of your 2024 crop while prices are still relatively elevated and historically good in case they erode further. While the mid-700s may not be the 1000 or higher that we’ve seen in the last two years, it remains much better than the possible 500 – 600 that the market saw back in 2020 and early 2021. 

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to cover half of the remaining July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts at current market prices, minus fees and commission. Last week Grain Market Insider suggested covering half of the originally recommended July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts at approximately 61 cents in premium, minus fees and commission. At 61 cents, the puts were about double their original cost. In yesterday’s and today’s trading sessions, the July ’24 contract may have found support at about the 630 level. Given the extreme oversold condition of the market, Grain Market Insider recommends covering another half of the remaining position to protect some of the current gains. This recommendation means that 75% of the original position should be closed out, leaving 25% of the original position to continue to provide downside protection in the event the market fails to rally off this 630 area.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: Since the nearby contract rolled from the December to the March, prices have steadily declined through the October low of 703 ¼ and may be on track to test major support near the May ’21 low of 669. If prices turn back higher, resistance now stands between 721 and 740 with heavy resistance near 750.

Other Charts / Weather

Brazil 2-week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina 2-week forecast precipitation, percent of normal, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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11-27 Midday: Markets Lower on Follow Through Selling.

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
DEC ’23 455.75 -7.5
MAR ’24 475.25 -7.25
DEC ’24 504.25 -6.5
Soybeans
JAN ’24 1327.25 -3.5
MAR ’24 1345.25 -3.5
NOV ’24 1277 -3.25
Chicago Wheat
DEC ’23 534 -14.75
MAR ’24 562.75 -14.5
JUL ’24 592.25 -11.75
K.C. Wheat
DEC ’23 593.25 -8.75
MAR ’24 601.75 -9.75
JUL ’24 615.5 -10
Mpls Wheat
DEC ’23 688.25 -8.5
MAR ’24 703 -11.5
SEP ’24 733 -7.5
S&P 500
DEC ’23 4561.25 -7
Crude Oil
JAN ’24 75.25 -0.29
Gold
JAN ’24 2019.8 6.1

  • Corn is under pressure this morning and has made a new contract low at 475 in the March contract as traders come to terms with the large US supplies coming to the market soon.

  • Although large supplies are pressuring prices, demand has been strong with export sales and shipments up 27% from last year and ethanol demand positive.

  • In South America, weather has been a concern, but some showers have fallen over central and northern Brazil this weekend which may have added some selling pressure. Total rainfall is still below normal.

  • Brazil’s exporter group ANEC is expecting Brazil’s November exports at 7.9 mmt which would compare to 5.5 mmt at this time a year ago. This is despite the fact that U.S. corn is the cheapest feed grain available right now.

  • Soybeans are trading slightly lower today but are faring better than corn and wheat today as trade tries to get a grasp on South America’s crop conditions and upcoming forecast.

  • In Soybean meal, the two nearby months are trading higher while deferred contracts are lower, and soybean oil is higher. Based off of January futures, crush margins have been improving lately.

  • While central and northern Brazil are too dry, behind on planting, and may have to replant, southern Brazil is far too wet and is only 25% planted which is down from 55% last year.

  • Argentina’s crush is said to be down to about 25% of capacity because of a lack of soybeans. Additionally, farmers are said to not be selling. This is in part due to a possible devaluation of their currency, and the possibility that their new president may reduce export taxes.

  • Wheat is trading lower today with Chicago leading the way down and near its contract lows. Both KC and Minneapolis wheat have made new contract lows today.

  • Russia continues to offer wheat for much cheaper than US and other country’s offers which has severely depressed prices. Paris milling wheat futures in the March contract made a new low and were down in eight of the past ten trading sessions.

  • Russia has reportedly set a 24 mmt grain export quota for wheat, barley, corn, and rye, February 15 through the end of June. Additionally, they have issued a ban on Durum wheat exports from December 1 to May 31.

  • After more Russian attacks over the weekend, Ukraine is now planning to place convoy vessels in the Black Sea to protect their export corridor.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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11-27 Opening Update: Soybeans Higher on Lighter Than Expected Brazilian Rains

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 464 0.75
MAR ’24 483 0.5
DEC ’24 511.25 0.5

Soybeans

JAN ’24 1338 7.25
MAR ’24 1355.5 6.75
NOV ’24 1283.25 3

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 550.75 2
MAR ’24 579.75 2.5
JUL ’24 606 2

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 606.5 4.5
MAR ’24 616 4.5
JUL ’24 629.5 4

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 699.25 2.5
MAR ’24 716.25 1.75
SEP ’24 740.5 0

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4563.75 -4.5

Crude Oil

JAN ’24 74.67 -0.87

Gold

JAN ’24 2024 10.3

  • Corn is trading slightly lower to begin the week and remains rangebound as good export demand supports the market while large supplies add pressure.

  • Brazil is now reportedly 80% complete in planting its first crop corn and Argentina is 26% complete. Brazil received light rains over the weekend but not as much as was needed.

  • Friday’s report from the USDA showed that export sales and shipments of corn are now up 27% so far this year with Mexico being a main buyer, but China stepping in as well.

  • Strong ethanol margins have been a boon for domestic demand with ethanol production up nearly 6% from a year ago at this time.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning after a selloff on Friday that was largely due to light holiday trade volume. Both soybean meal and oil are higher.

  • Trade remains extremely focused on Brazilian weather, and although some rains have fallen in central Brazil over the weekend, totals are below the average amounts.

  • While central and northern Brazil are too dry, behind on planting, and may have to replant, southern Brazil is far too wet and is only 25% planted which is down from 55% last year.

  • Despite holiday volatility last week, soybean crush premium based on January futures remains very profitable and is a large source of soybean demand.

  • Wheat is trading slightly higher this morning with KC attempting to move higher off of Friday’s new contract low, but the overall trend has been lower for a long time now.

  • French wheat prices have been slipping along with prices in the U.S. as other global producers struggle to compete with cheap Russian exports.

  • Last week, Russia proposed a tariff quota for all grains that would limit sales to 24 mmt from Feb 15 to June 30. This would be supportive for U.S. exports.

  • After more Russian attacks over the weekend, Ukraine is now planning to place convoy vessels in the Black Sea to protect their export corridor.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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11-24 End of Day: “Risk off” trade on low holiday volume pressed the grain markets lower.

ByGrain Market Insider

Happy Thanksgiving from all of us at Total Farm Marketing!
Thursday, November 23, 2023: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.
Friday, November 24, 2023: The CME closes at noon, and Total Farm Marketing closes at 1:00.

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • After briefly trading higher March corn reversed and trended lower throughout the session in sympathy with lower soybeans to close just ¾ of a cent off the day’s low.

  • Despite concerning hot and dry Brazilian weather, and a round of large private sales totaling 452k mt to be delivered this marketing year, the soybean market was dragged lower on profit taking with thin holiday trade, lower soybean meal and sharply lower soybean oil.

  • Weak export sales, lower Matif wheat, and carryover weakness from soybeans weighed on the wheat complex that saw lower closing prices in all three classes.

  • To see the updated US 6 – 10 day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks and the Brazil and Argentina 2-week forecast precipitation, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Since the beginning of August, the corn market has traded sideways largely between 470 and 500. October’s brief breakout to 509 ½ and the subsequent failure to stay above the 50-day moving average indicates there is significant resistance in that price range. The failure of November’s USDA report to provide a bullish influence on the market puts the market at risk of drifting sideways to lower without a bullish catalyst. During last summer’s June rally, Grain Market Insider recommended making sales when Dec ’23 was around 624. So, for now, the thought process is to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter, with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by early winter, then Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Since late February ’22, Dec ’24 has been bound by 489 ¾ on the bottom and 600 on the top. After testing 491 to 547 last July, it has mostly traded between 500 and 525. During this time, Dec ’24 has held up better as bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus Dec ’23 as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty remaining for the 2024 crop. Moving forward, the risk for 2024 prices is the same as for 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a lower trend without further bullish input. Grain Market Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Grain Market Insider recommended buying 560 and 610 Dec ’23 call options ahead of the summer rally and having those in place helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700 or 800 that the call options would protect those sold bushels.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Strong selling pressure across the commodity market triggered risk off trade, pressuring grain futures. December corn futures lost 5 cents on the session, and 3 ¼ cents for the week.

  • Weekly corn export sales were towards the higher end of expectation at 1.432 MMT. Mexico was the top buyer of U.S. corn last week. For the year, corn export sales are up 27% year over year.

  • Over the weekend, the South American weather forecast for Argentina and Brazil will remain a focus. Improvement in some rainfall forecasts have helped pressure soybeans the past couple sessions, but the overall pattern is looking to stay dry. The weather in December going into January will be very key for both soybean and corn markets.

  • December grain options expired during the session, which likely added to the volatility on the session. Prices can move to areas of large open interest, which can trigger price movement.

  • The weak price action to end the week, and the lack of fresh news will likely limit the corn market going into the start of next week.

Above: The nearby contract in corn has rolled from the December contract to the March, and while the chart looks like prices made a significant jump, it is in fact the premium in the March that is being represented on the chart. Upside resistance remains between 500 and 509 ½, while support below the market remains near 460, with the next major area of support near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. At the end of August, the soybean market turned lower and didn’t find any significant buying interest until it traded down to 1251 in early October. Since then, the nearby contract has traded through the 50-day moving average and tested the August high. Looking back, since last May, nearby soybeans have been in a range from 1435 up top to 1251 down below. Last summer, Grain Market Insider did make two sales recommendations in the 1310 – 1360 price window versus Nov ’23. Seasonally, we are at the time of year when prices tend to rally into year’s end, and if the markets remain firm to higher in the next few weeks, Grain Market Insider may consider suggesting making additional old crop sales, while also continuing to be on the lookout for any call option buying opportunities to help protect current and future sales. 

  • No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the inception of the Nov ’24 contract, it has traded at a discount to the 2023 crop, from as much as 142 back in July, to as little as 17 ¾ in early October during harvest. And while the spread difference between the two crops has seen a good amount of volatility, Nov ’24 has been largely rangebound between 1250 and 1320 since it rallied off its 1116 ¼ low last July. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be early winter at the soonest. Currently, Grain Market Insider’s focus is also on watching for any opportunities to recommend buying call options.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply lower on a day of thin holiday trade volume despite good export sales, a bundle of flash sales this morning, and Brazilian weather that remains hot, dry, and concerning for local producers.

  • For the week ending November 16, the USDA reported an increase of 35.3 mb of soybean export sales in 23/24 and an increase of 0.3 mb for 24/25. This was a good number, but still down 75% from the previous week and 47% from the prior 4-week average. Exports shipments of 61.0 mb were well above the 29.6 mb needed each week to reach the USDA’s estimates but were down 14% from the previous week. Primary destinations were to China, Spain, and Indonesia.

  • On top of the relatively strong export sales, two new flash sales were reported today with 129,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year and 323,400 mt for delivery to unknown destinations for the 23/24 year.

  • In South America, Argentina has been faring better than Brazil as far as precipitation amounts, and although Brazil has received scattered showers, it has seen anywhere near the soaking rains that have been needed. According to Agroconsult, the Brazilian soybean production for 23/24 has been revised lower to 161.38 mmt from 163.25 mmt.

Above: On November 15, January soybeans posted a bearish reversal after coming within 11 cents of the August high.  Since then, prices have traded lower and filled the gap left from 1349 ¾. For now, heavy resistance remains between 1400 and 1410, with support below the market between 1336 and the 50-day moving average near 1318.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • US wheat futures closed with losses in all three classes alongside a lower close in Paris milling wheat futures. Weakness may have in part stemmed from sharply lower soybeans pulling the grain complex down.

  • The USDA reported an increase of only 6.3 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and 0.9 mb for 24/25. Shipments of 11.0 mb last week were below the 14.9 mb pace needed per week to meet the USDA 23/24 export goal of 700 mb.

  • News outlets have reported that Russia is setting a grain export quota in the amount of 24 mmt that will run from February 15 to the end of June. This will include wheat, corn, barley, and rye. Interestingly, Russia has also issued a durum wheat export ban from December 1 to May 31.

  • China’s wheat imports this year are up 38% compared to last year, at a record 10.8 mmt. With the price of US wheat falling, it will be interesting to see if China makes any more purchases from the US. Additionally, Chinese food group COFCO is said to have purchased Canadian durum wheat for the first time to be processed into flour.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina has harvested 27% of their wheat crop. While weather in that country has recently improved, it was probably too little too late for wheat. The BAGE is expecting a 14.7 mmt harvest.

  • In India, wheat sowing is being hindered by dry soil conditions. Therefore, and despite near record high internal prices, India may shift wheat to planting other crops including chickpeas and sorghum. As of November 17, Indian farmers have planted 8.6 million hectares of wheat, down 5.5% from last year.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. After making a high in late July, nearby Chicago wheat trended lower until finding support at 540 on September 29, from which it rallied back, briefly piercing 600 and the 50-day moving average. The market now appears to be finding value in the 540 – 616 range established since early September, as weak US export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, remains the dominant headwind to higher prices. Grain Market Insider made sales recommendations in the late June rally around 720 and again earlier this fall near 604. With those two sales, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, with an eye on considering additional sales in the 625 – 650 range. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. After retesting the 800 level back in July, new crop Chicago wheat retreated steadily until hitting the late September low of 610 ¼. Since then, prices have been mostly rangebound between 620 and 650.  Just as fund positioning and weak fundamentals have driven old crop prices down closer to the mid to upper 500 range and new crop prices to the low to mid 600s. The risk of further new crop price erosion remains without fresh bullish input to move prices higher. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for this possibility, and back in June, Grain Market Insider recommended two separate sales that averaged about 720 to take advantage of the brief upswing. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels, and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: On November 15 nearby Chicago wheat rolled from the December contract to the March. While it appears that prices made a significant move, it is in fact the premium in March that is being represented on the chart. Upside resistance remains between 604 ½ and 618, while support below the market, remains between 564 and 554.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since late July the nearby KC wheat has been in a downtrend that has had periods of relative stability, but not any significant reversals higher. The market once again found nearby support as it traded to, and held, its recent low of 625 ½. Currently, weak US export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, remains the dominant headwind, and the market is in need of bullish input to stabilize and rally prices back higher. If a bullish catalyst enters the market to push prices above 700, it may signal that a fall low is in place and would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into winter and early spring. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter, as weather becomes a more prominent market mover with an eye on considering additional sales near 750 – 800. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to cover half of the remaining July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts at current market prices, minus fees and commission. Last week Grain Market Insider suggested covering half of the originally recommended July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts at approximately 61 cents in premium minus fees, and commission. At 61 cents, the puts were about double their original cost. In yesterday’s and today’s trading sessions, the July ’24 contract may have found support at about the 630 level. Given the extreme oversold condition of the market, Grain Market Insider recommends covering another half of the remaining position to protect some of the current gains. This recommendation means that 75% of the original position should be closed out, leaving 25% of the original position to continue to provide downside protection in the event the market fails to rally off this 630 area.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: After testing resistance at the upper end of the recent range near 660, the market has retreated and broken through 625 support.  Without fresh bullish input, March ’24 runs the risk of retreating further and testing 575 support. 

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. After making highs in July, and the subsequent downtrend to the October 2 low of 707 ½, nearby Minneapolis wheat has traded mostly sideways with no significant reversal higher. With weak US export demand still the primary impediment to higher prices, the market remains at risk of trending lower if September’s low close of 709 is violated to the downside unless another bullish impetus enters the scene. If that happens and prices begin to push back toward 775, it may signal that a near-term low is in place. Earlier this year, Grain Market Insider made a sales recommendation during the July rally near 820, and with that sale in place, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter with an eye on considering additional sales around 750 – 800, and again north of 825. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Even though the primary strategy is to look for higher prices, Grain Market Insider may also consider a “plan b” in the next couple of weeks if prices grind sideways to lower.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your 2024 Spring wheat crop. Since late July, Sept ’24 Mpls wheat has been slowly stair-stepping lower, providing no rallies of substance to sell into. While we see improving conditions in the market that could provide fuel for a bottom and future upside sales opportunities, we also know historically, that if the market breaks support this time of year, it poses the risk that prices could continue to trend overall lower into spring of next year. All that said, a close below 743 support would signal that a trend lower into next year is a risk. Although Grain Market Insider still looks for higher prices, we know from our historical research the importance of having a “plan b” this time of year. With a daily close below 743, Grain Market Insider will recommend selling a portion of your 2024 crop while prices are still relatively elevated and historically good in case they erode further. While the mid-700s may not be the 1000 or higher that we’ve seen in the last two years, it remains much better than the possible 500 – 600 that the market saw back in 2020 and early 2021. 

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to cover half of the remaining July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts at current market prices, minus fees and commission. Last week Grain Market Insider suggested covering half of the originally recommended July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts at approximately 61 cents in premium, minus fees and commission. At 61 cents, the puts were about double their original cost. In yesterday’s and today’s trading sessions, the July ’24 contract may have found support at about the 630 level. Given the extreme oversold condition of the market, Grain Market Insider recommends covering another half of the remaining position to protect some of the current gains. This recommendation means that 75% of the original position should be closed out, leaving 25% of the original position to continue to provide downside protection in the event the market fails to rally off this 630 area.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: On November 15, nearby Minneapolis wheat rolled from the December contract to the March. While it appears that prices made a significant move, it is in fact the premium in March that is being represented on the chart. Nearby resistance remains near 755 with heavy resistance above the market near the September high of 791. Below the market initial support lies near 721 with major support down near 669, the May ’21 low.

Other Charts / Weather

Brazil 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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11-24 Midday: Markets Trade Lower at Midday on Thin Holiday Volume

ByGrain Market Insider

Happy Thanksgiving from all of us at Total Farm Marketing!
Thursday, November 23, 2023: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.
Friday, November 24, 2023: The CME closes at noon, and Total Farm Marketing closes at 1:00.

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
DEC ’23 467 -1.75
MAR ’24 485.75 -2
DEC ’24 512 -1.75
Soybeans
JAN ’24 1335.75 -20.75
MAR ’24 1353.5 -20.75
NOV ’24 1283.25 -18
Chicago Wheat
DEC ’23 550.75 -5
MAR ’24 579.25 -5.25
JUL ’24 607 -5.25
K.C. Wheat
DEC ’23 606 -8.5
MAR ’24 614.5 -9.75
JUL ’24 628.75 -9.25
Mpls Wheat
DEC ’23 706.5 -4.25
MAR ’24 722.75 -5.25
SEP ’24 742 -9.25
S&P 500
DEC ’23 4566.75 -0.5
Crude Oil
JAN ’24 76.84 -0.26
Gold
JAN ’24 2009.4 6

  • The USDA reported an increase of 56.4 mb of corn export sales for 23/24.

  • US weather looks mostly dry with cool temperatures. Furthermore, the Midwest looks to remain dry, but the southern part of the country may get some showers. This aligns with a typical El Nino weather pattern.

  • It is still raining too much in southern Brazil, but weather looks favorable in Argentina. Central and northern Brazil look like they are getting a break from the rainfall, but longer range forecasts do bring the rain back.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has said that Argentina’s corn planting is 26% complete.

  • There is talk that China may have some interest in US soybeans from the PNW for the January /

  • The USDA reported an increase of 35.3 mb of soybean export sales for 23/24, and an increase of 0.3 mb for 24/25.

  • Private exporters reported sales of 129,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China, and 323,400 mt for delivery to unknown, both during the 23/24 marketing year.

  • Argentina’s crush is said to be down to about 25% of capacity because of a lack of soybeans. Additionally, farmers are said to not be selling. This is, in part, due to a possible devaluation of their currency, and the possibility that their new president may reduce export taxes.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has stated that Argentina’s soybean planting is 35% complete.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 6.3 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24, and an increase of 0.9 mb for 24/25.  

  • Russia has reportedly set a 24 mmt grain export quota for wheat, barley, corn, and rye, February 15th through the end of June. Additionally, they have issued a ban on Durum wheat exports from December 1st to May 31st.

  • For 2023, China has imported a record 10.8 mmt of wheat. That represents a 38% increase versus last year.

  • Argentina’s wheat harvest is now said to be 27% complete, and the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange is projecting a 14.7 mmt crop.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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11-24 Opening Update: Grains Expected to Open Unchanged to Lower in Quiet Holiday Trade

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 468.75 -1.25
MAR ’24 487.75 -1.25
DEC ’24 513.75 -1.25

Soybeans

JAN ’24 1356.5 -20.75
MAR ’24 1374.25 -18.75
NOV ’24 1301.25 -12

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 555.75 0.75
MAR ’24 584.5 1.75
JUL ’24 612.25 1.75

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 614.5 -1.25
MAR ’24 624.25 -1.25
JUL ’24 638 -0.5

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 710.75 -6.75
MAR ’24 728 -5.25
SEP ’24 751.25 -5.5

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4572.25 5

Crude Oil

JAN ’24 76.64 -0.46

Gold

JAN ’24 2008.4 5

  • Corn is expected to open unchanged this morning in very quiet trade following Thanksgiving and remains in a tight range between $4.75 and $4.95 for March.

  • The USDA is scheduled to release its export sales report today and estimates for corn are between 800k tons and 1,150k tons with an average guess of 950k.

  • U.S. ethanol stocks rose by 3.3% to 21.652m bbl which was higher than analyst expectations of 21.104. Plant production was 1.023m b/d, above the average guess of 1.053m.

  • Argentina has fared better than Brazil this season concerning rain amounts with 67% of the planted area showing normal soil moisture and 75% of the crop rated “optimal”.

  • Soybeans are expected to be unchanged this morning along with corn. Soybean meal and soybean oil are also called to be unchanged.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybeans between 900k and 1,300k tons for the week ending November 16 with the average guess at 1,108k tons.

  • As moisture levels have improved in Argentina, the soy crop is reportedly in good shape with one third of the seasons estimated soybeans now planted.

  • While many estimates for Brazils soy crop have stayed steady or even risen, some consulting firm are starting to bring estimates lower with Agroconsult revising their estimate down by 7.6 mmt to 161.6 mmt.

  • All three wheat contracts are expected to open unchanged to lower along with the rest of the grain complex. European wheat markets traded lower over the past two days which could pressure U.S. prices.

  • China’s COFCO imported Canadian durum wheat for the first time with the intention of processing it into flour. China typically imports finished flour and pasta.

  • Russia has approved a grain export quota from February 15 to June 30 in which it expects to export 24 mmt of grain.

  • Russia has also decided to ban durum wheat exports as of December 1 in an effort to protect their domestic market and increase the supply of their products.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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11-22 End of Day: Markets Mostly Lower on Changing SA Forecasts and Thanksgiving Position Squaring

ByGrain Market Insider

Happy Thanksgiving from all of us at Total Farm Marketing!
Thursday, November 23, 2023: The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices are closed.
Friday, November 24, 2023: The CME closes at noon, and Total Farm Marketing closes at 1:00.

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • After trading higher to start the day, the corn market shed its earlier gains in a tight 6-cent range and closed lower on the day as prices continued to consolidate with traders squaring positions in preparation for closed markets on Thursday and a thinly traded, shortened session on Friday.

  • Profit taking ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday on a more variable South American forecast led the soybean complex lower as traders covered long positions from the recent rally.

  • Soybean meal and oil both closed lower alongside soybeans as traders with long meal positions likely booked profits in front of the holiday. While soybean oil, with its relatively neutral fund position, followed crude oil lower.

  • Early strength from fresh Russian attacks on Odesa port facilities, and a large private sale totaling 110k mt of wheat to China for 23/24, faded as selling pressure from neighboring soybeans weighed on the wheat complex. Minneapolis contracts led the charge lower with KC following suit, while Chicago contracts remained firm.

  • The markets will be closed this evening and Thursday for Thanksgiving. They will reopen at 8:30 am Friday morning, with an early close at 12:05 pm for the CME Group and 12:15 pm for the MGEX.

  • To see the updated US and South America GRACE-Based Root Zone Soil Moisture Drought Indicators courtesy of NASA and the NDMC, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Since the beginning of August, the corn market has traded sideways largely between 470 and 500. October’s brief breakout to 509 ½ and the subsequent failure to stay above the 50-day moving average indicates there is significant resistance in that price range. The failure of November’s USDA report to provide a bullish influence on the market puts the market at risk of drifting sideways to lower without a bullish catalyst. During last summer’s June rally, Grain Market Insider recommended making sales when Dec ’23 was around 624. So, for now, the thought process is to hold tight on any further sales recommendations until later this fall or early winter, with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by early winter, then Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Since late February ’22, Dec ’24 has been bound by 489 ¾ on the bottom and 600 on the top. After testing 491 to 547 last July, it has mostly traded between 500 and 525. During this time, Dec ’24 has held up better as bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus Dec ’23 as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty remaining for the 2024 crop. Moving forward, the risk for 2024 prices is the same as for 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a lower trend without further bullish input. Grain Market Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Grain Market Insider recommended buying 560 and 610 Dec ’23 call options ahead of the summer rally and having those in place helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700 or 800 that the call options would protect those sold bushels.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Weakness in the soybean market and technical selling pressured corn futures lower on the session. December corn lost 1 ¼ cents for the day. After early session strength, corn prices failed at overhead resistance, which triggered some selling pressure before the Thanksgiving Day break.

  • Corn futures still lack overall news to push one direction or another. December futures have been holding and trading around the 470 level for the month of November.

  • December grain options expire on Friday, which could lead to volatile trade going into the weekend. Prices can move to areas of large open interest, and for December corn the 470 call and put strike seems to be holding the largest number of open contracts.

  • This morning, the USDA reported a flash sale of 128,000 mt of corn to unknown destinations for the current marketing year. The announced daily sales are encouraging, but remain small in size, and failed to move the market. Weekly export sales will be released on Friday with the Thanksgiving Day holiday tomorrow.

  • Over the weekend, the South American weather forecast for Argentina and Brazil will remain a focus. Improvement in some rainfall forecasts have helped pressure soybeans the past couple days, but the overall pattern is looking to stay dry. The weather in December going into January will be very key for both soybean and corn markets.

Above: The nearby contract in corn has rolled from the December contract to the March, and while the chart looks like prices made a significant jump, it is in fact the premium in the March that is being represented on the chart. Upside resistance remains between 500 and 509 ½, while support below the market remains near 460, with the next major area of support near 415.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. At the end of August, the soybean market turned lower and didn’t find any significant buying interest until it traded down to 1251 in early October. Since then, the nearby contract has traded through the 50-day moving average and tested the August high.  Looking back, since last May, nearby soybeans have been in a range from 1435 up top to 1251 down below. Last summer, Grain Market Insider did make two sales recommendations in the 1310 – 1360 price window versus Nov ’23. Seasonally, we are at the time of year when prices tend to rally into year’s end, and if the markets remain firm to higher in the next few weeks, Grain Market Insider may consider suggesting making additional old crop sales, while also continuing to be on the lookout for any call option buying opportunities to help protect current and future sales. 

  • No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the inception of the Nov ’24 contract, it has traded at a discount to the 2023 crop, from as much as 142 back in July, to as little as 17 ¾ in early October during harvest. And while the spread difference between the two crops has seen a good amount of volatility, Nov ’24 has been largely rangebound between 1250 and 1320 since it rallied off its 1116 ¼ low last July. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be early winter at the soonest. Currently, Grain Market Insider’s focus is also on watching for any opportunities to recommend buying call options.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • The wheat market had a mixed close with small gains in Chicago, but losses in KC and Minneapolis futures. Early strength stemmed from a new Russian attack on Odesa in Ukraine as well as a USDA announcement that 110,000 mt of wheat was sold to China for the 23/24 marketing year. However, strength faded in tandem with soybean futures pulling the grain complex lower.

  • Funds still hold a large net short wheat position. Short covering may become more of a factor if there is more friendly news to drive wheat higher. 

  • From July 1 to November 19, EU soft wheat exports have declined 19% year over year to 11.6 mmt. This compares with 14.3 mmt last year. Additionally, there are concerns about weather in parts of Europe with too much rain causing issues, especially in France.

  • A UN agency has stated that Ukraine may be unable to meet wheat demand, both domestic and export, if Russian infrastructure attacks continue. According to the UN human rights office, since mid-July there have been 31 attacks on Ukrainian grain production and export facilities. To add to the problem, eastern European farmers are said to be protesting the import of grain from Ukraine. Nearly 300 trucks are blocking cargo traffic at one border crossing.

Above: On November 15, January soybeans posted a bearish reversal after coming within 11 cents of the August high.  Since then, prices have traded lower and filled the gap left from 1349 ¾. For now, heavy resistance remains between 1400 and 1410, with support below the market between 1336 and the 50-day moving average near 1318.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • The wheat market had a mixed close with small gains in Chicago, but losses in KC and Minneapolis futures. Early strength stemmed from a new Russian attack on Odesa in Ukraine as well as a USDA announcement that 110,000 mt of wheat was sold to China for the 23/24 marketing year. However, strength faded in tandem with soybean futures pulling the grain complex lower.

  • Funds still hold a large net short wheat position. Short covering may become more of a factor if there is more friendly news to drive wheat higher. 

  • From July 1 to November 19, EU soft wheat exports have declined 19% year over year to 11.6 mmt. This compares with 14.3 mmt last year. Additionally, there are concerns about weather in parts of Europe with too much rain causing issues, especially in France.

  • A UN agency has stated that Ukraine may be unable to meet wheat demand, both domestic and export, if Russian infrastructure attacks continue. According to the UN human rights office, since mid-July there have been 31 attacks on Ukrainian grain production and export facilities. To add to the problem, eastern European farmers are said to be protesting the import of grain from Ukraine. Nearly 300 trucks are blocking cargo traffic at one border crossing.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. After making a high in late July, nearby Chicago wheat trended lower until finding support at 540 on September 29, from which it rallied back, briefly piercing 600 and the 50-day moving average. The market now appears to be finding value in the 540 – 616 range established since early September, as weak US export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, remains the dominant headwind to higher prices. Grain Market Insider made sales recommendations in the late June rally around 720 and again earlier this fall near 604. With those two sales, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter as weather becomes a more prominent market mover, with an eye on considering additional sales in the 625 – 650 range. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. After retesting the 800 level back in July, new crop Chicago wheat retreated steadily until hitting the late September low of 610 ¼. Since then, prices have been mostly rangebound between 620 and 650.  Just as fund positioning and weak fundamentals have driven old crop prices down closer to the mid to upper 500 range and new crop prices to the low to mid 600s. The risk of further new crop price erosion remains without fresh bullish input to move prices higher. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for this possibility, and back in June, Grain Market Insider recommended two separate sales that averaged about 720 to take advantage of the brief upswing. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels, and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset some of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: On November 15 nearby Chicago wheat rolled from the December contract to the March. While it appears that prices made a significant move, it is in fact the premium in March that is being represented on the chart. Upside resistance remains between 604 ½ and 618, while support below the market, remains between 564 and 554.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since late July the nearby KC wheat has been in a downtrend that has had periods of relative stability, but not any significant reversals higher. The market once again found nearby support as it traded to, and held, its recent low of 625 ½. Currently, weak US export demand, driven by cheap Russian exports, remains the dominant headwind, and the market is in need of bullish input to stabilize and rally prices back higher. If a bullish catalyst enters the market to push prices above 700, it may signal that a fall low is in place and would line up with the historical tendency for prices to appreciate into winter and early spring. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter, as weather becomes a more prominent market mover with an eye on considering additional sales near 750 – 800. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to cover half of the remaining July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts at current market prices, minus fees and commission. Last week Grain Market Insider suggested covering half of the originally recommended July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts at approximately 61 cents in premium minus fees, and commission. At 61 cents, the puts were about double their original cost. In yesterday’s and today’s trading sessions, the July ’24 contract may have found support at about the 630 level. Given the extreme oversold condition of the market, Grain Market Insider recommends covering another half of the remaining position to protect some of the current gains. This recommendation means that 75% of the original position should be closed out, leaving 25% of the original position to continue to provide downside protection in the event the market fails to rally off this 630 area.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: After testing resistance at the upper end of the recent range near 660, the market has retreated and broken through 625 support.  Without fresh bullish input, March ’24 runs the risk of retreating further and testing 575 support. 

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. After making highs in July, and the subsequent downtrend to the October 2 low of 707 ½, nearby Minneapolis wheat has traded mostly sideways with no significant reversal higher. With weak US export demand still the primary impediment to higher prices, the market remains at risk of trending lower if September’s low close of 709 is violated to the downside unless another bullish impetus enters the scene. If that happens and prices begin to push back toward 775, it may signal that a near-term low is in place. Earlier this year, Grain Market Insider made a sales recommendation during the July rally near 820, and with that sale in place, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter with an eye on considering additional sales around 750 – 800, and again north of 825. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices. Even though the primary strategy is to look for higher prices, Grain Market Insider may also consider a “plan b” in the next couple of weeks if prices grind sideways to lower.

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to cover half of the remaining July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts at current market prices, minus fees and commission. Last week Grain Market Insider suggested covering half of the originally recommended July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts at approximately 61 cents in premium, minus fees and commission. At 61 cents, the puts were about double their original cost.  In yesterday’s and today’s trading sessions, the July ’24 contract may have found support at about the 630 level. Given the extreme oversold condition of the market, Grain Market Insider recommends covering another half of the remaining position to protect some of the current gains. This recommendation means that 75% of the original position should be closed out, leaving 25% of the original position to continue to provide downside protection in the event the market fails to rally off this 630 area.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: On November 15, nearby Minneapolis wheat rolled from the December contract to the March. While it appears that prices made a significant move, it is in fact the premium in March that is being represented on the chart. Nearby resistance remains near 755 with heavy resistance above the market near the September high of 791. Below the market initial support lies near 721 with major support down near 669, the May ’21 low.

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