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12-13 Opening Update: Grains Lower, Reversing some of Yesterday’s Gains

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’24 481.5 -3.75
JUL ’24 502.75 -3.25
DEC ’24 509 -2.5

Soybeans

JAN ’24 1314.75 -9
MAR ’24 1333.5 -9.25
NOV ’24 1273.5 -8

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’24 616 -9.5
MAY ’24 626 -9.5
JUL ’24 633.5 -8.5

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’24 646.5 -10.25
MAY ’24 650.75 -9.5
JUL ’24 652.5 -10

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’24 721.5 -8
JUL ’24 739.5 -6.5
SEP ’24 753.5 16.5

S&P 500

MAR ’24 4703.25 6

Crude Oil

FEB ’24 69.07 0.22

Gold

FEB ’24 1996.3 3.1

  • Corn is trading lower this morning giving back most of the gains posted yesterday.

  • Today’s EIA ethanol report is expected to show ethanol production backing off from last week’s 5 month high, with ethanol stocks growing slightly week over week. 

  • The Biden Administration is expected to announce this week guidance on whether corn-based sustainable aviation fuel will qualify for government subsidies.

  • Brazil’s Agrivest says purchases of fertilizer and corn seed are down 18-20% compared to a year ago as farmers eye second crop corn planting in early 2024. 

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning as heavier rain totals are forecast in the driest regions of Brazil starting late next week through January. 

  • Weather conditions look to remain mostly favorable for Argentina over the next two weeks continuing to support early crop development. 

  • Newly elect Argentine President Milei is expected to announce this week many of his reforms which could have an impact on global soybean meal trade given Argentina’s large impact in that market. 

  • Brazil’s ABIOVE lowered their Brazilian soybean production forecast to 161.9 million tons this week, down 2.8 million tons from their previous estimate, but above the USDA’s December estimate of 161 million tons.  

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning after yesterday’s rally.

  • Argus said this week that Ukraine’s wheat production could be a 12-year low in 2024 due to lower planted area. 

  • EU soft red wheat exports through December 10 were estimated at 13.61 million tons compared to 15.85 million a year ago.

  • A low pressure system is expected to move slowly across much of the US central plains this week bringing welcome moisture.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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12-12 End of Day: Textbook Turnaround Tuesday, Corn and Wheat Reverse Higher, Soybeans Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Support from significantly higher wheat carried over to the corn futures, which settled mid-range and in the green. Upside strength was limited though, by losses in crude oil and neighboring soybeans.

  • Argentina’s new president Milei temporarily suspended its grain export register on Monday. The move comes just before announcements regarding new economic measures, some of which may increase farmer selling and exports. The news may have added pressure to January soybeans which rejected trade near 1350 and above the 100-day moving average.

  • Both soybean meal and oil settled near the lower end of their respective ranges, with meal losing ground in sympathy with soybeans and improved Argentine crop prospects, while pressure from sharply lower crude oil weighed on soybean oil.

  • To stabilize its domestic prices, Russia has banned the export of Durum wheat until May 31st, effective immediately. This may have lent some support to the wheat market, which experienced an impressive turnaround from yesterday’s sharp losses in all three classes.

  • To see the updated US 5-day precipitation forecast, 6 – 10 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, and South America’s GRACE-Based Drought Indicator, courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center, and the NDMC with the University of Nebraska, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Since the beginning of August, the corn market has traded sideways largely between 470 and 500. October’s brief breakout to 509 ½ and the subsequent failure to stay above the 50-day moving average indicates there is significant resistance in that price range. The failure of December’s USDA report to provide a bullish influence on the market puts the market at risk of drifting sideways to lower without a bullish catalyst. During last summer’s June rally, Grain Market Insider recommended making sales when Dec ’23 was around 624. For now, Grain Market Insider will continue to hold tight on any further sales recommendations for the next few weeks with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by then, Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Since late February ’22, Dec ’24 has been bound by 485 ¾ on the bottom and 602 on the top. After testing 491 to 547 last July, it has mostly traded between 500 and 525. During this time, Dec ’24 has held up better as bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop prices as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty remaining for the 2024 crop. Moving forward, the risk for 2024 prices is the same as for 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a sideways to lower trend without a bullish catalyst. Grain Market Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Grain Market Insider recommended buying Dec ‘23 560 and 610 call options ahead of the summer rally and having those in place helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700 or 800 that the call options would protect those sold bushels.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures used strength in the wheat market to close with small gains on the session. March corn traded 3 ¾ cents higher, holding around the active 485 trading price in range bound activity.

  • Corn futures were limited by selling strength in soybean markets and the crude oil markets. Crude oil traded 3-4% lower on the session. Lower crude brings concern about margin for the ethanol industry, a key domestic demand for corn.

  • South American weather stays a focus. The next 7 days show a drier forecast with a strong heat wave returning. Longer extended forecasts are more favorable for crop growth if those forecasts materialize.

  • China’s grain output rose 1.3% year on year to a record high of 695.41 mmt in 2023. This data was provided by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday. The record corn production may limit some US corn exports.

  • The cash market may act independently of the futures market while prices trade in a range bound fashion. The fluctuation in basis in different regions will likely provide limited marketing opportunities based on overall available supplies.

Above: Since the lead month rolled to the March contract, the corn market has been rangebound between 470 on the downside and 497 on the upside. Upside resistance appears to be heavy given the bearish reversal that was posted on December 6. That heavy resistance also extends up to the October high of 509 ½, which the market will need more bullish influence to trade through. If the market retreats through nearby 470 support, major support remains near 460.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your old crop 2023 soybean production. Since last summer, the soybean market has been mostly rangebound between 1435 on the topside and 1251 on the bottom. Within this range, the 1330 area has been a strong pivot point. When over 1330, the front month has been able to challenge the 1400 area, but below 1330 the front month has challenged the 1250 area. Following last Friday’s USDA update, the market has attempted to rally above 1330, but so far that rally has been rejected. This rejection poses the risk that the front month could challenge the 1250 area again. Also, given the projected record large global carryout of soybeans, Grain Market Insider wants to take advantage of the historical value of 1300+ soybean prices.

  • No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the inception of the Nov ’24 contract, it has traded at a discount to the 2023 crop from as much as 142 back in July, to as little as 17 ¾ in early October during harvest. While the spread difference between the two crops has seen a good amount of volatility, Nov ’24 has been largely rangebound between 1250 and 1320 since it rallied off its 1116 ¼ low last May. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be early winter at the earliest. Currently, Grain Market Insider’s focus is also on watching for any opportunities to recommend buying call options.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower closing just above the 50-day moving average. A short span of upcoming hot and dry weather in central and northern Brazil added some weather premium back into the market causing yesterday’s rally. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower.

  • March soybeans have gained just over 32 cents from their low last week due to news that the 7-day forecast for Brazil would be hot and dry. Heavier rains are forecast to fall beginning December 19 and are expected to last into January, so crop stress should be limited.

  • This morning, the USDA reported private exporter sales of 198,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for the 23/24 marketing year. So far, there have been sales reported every day, from last Thursday through today, primarily by China or unknown.

  • Crude oil fell to its lowest level since June today which pressured soybean oil, but on the other hand, stockpiles of Malaysian palm oil shrunk last month which could offer support. In addition, the NOPA crush report will be released on Friday and trade is looking for another record large month at 191 mb crushed.

Above: Since retreating from the November highs, soybeans traded through 1297, but held support around 1292. If prices retreat lower through 1292, they could test support near 1250. Up above, psychological resistance may enter in near 1350, with heavy resistance up near recent highs around 1400.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three US wheat classes reversed from yesterday’s lower closes to finish with double-digit gains today. This rally may have been in part sparked by the Russian government’s ban on durum wheat exports. The ban is in effect until May 31, and is reported to have been put in place to help their domestic prices.

  • Also giving a boost today was a higher close for Paris milling wheat futures, and a drop in the US Dollar Index. However, on a bearish note, with the recent upturn in wheat prices, the US has quickly become uncompetitive on the world export market, and this may mean that there will not be any more Chinese purchases to help support the market.

  • Kansas released updated crop conditions for their state yesterday. Wheat condition declined 1%, to 39% good to excellent. Additionally, poor to very poor declined 1% while fair increased 2%. Conditions look much better than at the same time last year. 

  • According to their agriculture ministry, French soft wheat planting for 2024 is down 5.1% year on year with 4.5 million hectares planted and represents a 4.7% decline from the five-year average. The cause of the decline is being blamed on heavy rains.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • Grain Market Insider sees an active opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 Soft Red Winter wheat crop. Since the end of July, the wheat market has been in a downtrend due to low world wheat prices generating weak US export demand, with no significant rallies to take advantage of. This current rally has now taken prices in excess of 80 cents from the November low and coincides with a 38% retracement back toward last July’s highs, and the 612 to 646 congestion area from last September. Considering this bounce in the market may be temporary, Grain Market Insider recommends taking advantage of this rally, and these still historically good prices, to make an additional sale on your 2023 crop.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since July, new crop Chicago wheat has slowly worked its way lower with no significant opportunities to make additional sales. The lower market was driven mostly by managed fund selling from lower world wheat prices and weak US demand. As the market sold off, it became significantly oversold with managed funds building a short position in excess of 100,000 contracts. While bearish headwinds remain, the large fund short position and oversold condition of the market are two factors that could fuel a sizeable, short-covering rally. Additionally, price seasonals are supportive as prices tend to build in some risk premium going into the winter months. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and back in June, Grain Market Insider recommended two separate sales that averaged about 720 to take advantage of the brief upswing. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: After rallying to 649 ½ on short covering activity largely, from being oversold, Chicago wheat became overbought and began to turn lower following the December 8 USDA update. Overhead resistance comes in near 650, and again between 660 and 665. The overbought status of the market may encourage additional selling and a test of the 50-day moving average near 580, with further support near 556.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since late July old crop KC wheat has been in a downtrend that has largely been driven by managed fund selling on low world wheat prices and weak US export demand. As the selloff progressed, the market became oversold, and the funds established the largest short position in three years. Even though bullish headwinds remain, these two factors have fueled the recent short-covering rally, which could extend much further if a bullish catalyst enters the market. This would also line up with the historical tendency for price appreciation as the market builds risk premium going into wintertime. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter, as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices become over extended.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. At the end of August, the Jul ’24 contract broke out of roughly a one-year trading range, between 740 and 860, to the downside. Since that breakout, the market has continued to slowly stair-step lower, largely driven by managed fund selling, weak US export demand, and lower world wheat prices. As the selloff progressed, the funds built up the largest net short position in three years. While bearish headwinds remain, the significant oversold condition of the market and the large fund net short position are two factors that could fuel a short-covering rally in the months ahead. Price seasonals are also supportive as prices tend to build in some risk premium going into the winter months. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying Jul’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside following the range breakout. Though as the market recently got further extended into oversold territory and the July contract showed signs of support near 630, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Moving forward, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend exiting the last 25% on any further supportive market developments.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Following bearish reversals on December 6th and December 8th, the market has shown that there is significant overhead resistance above 680. The market is also showing signs of being oversold following the recent runup, which adds upward resistance and could add pressure if the market continues lower. Below the market, initial support comes in near 630, with further support remaining around 595 and 575. 

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Following last July’s rally, the market has slowly stair-stepped lower, primarily due to low world wheat prices, weak US export demand, and managed fund selling. With the funds building a record large short position as the market sold off. Since weak US export demand remains the main impediment to higher prices, the market continues to be at risk of further downside erosion. The record large fund short position could fuel a rally back higher if a bullish catalyst enters the scene, and if that happens, it may signal that a near-term low is in place. Earlier this year, Grain Market Insider made a sales recommendation during the July rally near 820, and with that sale in place, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation this winter with an eye on considering additional sales around 725 – 775, and again north of 800. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. At the end of August, the Sept ’24 contract traded to a peak of 871 ¾ and has continued to slowly stair-step lower, largely driven by lower world wheat prices, weak US export demand, and managed fund selling, and as the selloff progressed, the funds built up a record large short position. While bearish headwinds remain, the significant oversold condition of the market and the large fund net short position are two factors that could fuel a short-covering rally in the months ahead. Price seasonals are also supportive as prices tend to build in some risk premium going into the winter months. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside following a 1-year range breakout in KC wheat. Though recently, as the KC market extended further into oversold territory and the July ‘24 KC wheat contract showed signs of support near 630, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. While in the same time frame, Grain Market Insider also recommended making an additional sale as the Sept ’24 Minneapolis contract broke long time 743 support. For now, moving forward, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend exiting the last 25% of the open puts on any further supportive market developments.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After making a new contract low on November 27, the March contract found buying interest from its oversold status and record fund short. Since then, the market posted a bearish reversal on December 6, showing significant resistance in the 750 area. If prices can break through upside resistance, they could run toward 790. If prices retreat, nearby support could be found around 718, with further support near the recent low of 697 ½.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 5-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

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12-12 Midday: Turnaround Tuesday Strikes Back as Corn and Wheat Trade Higher; Beans Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’24 486.5 5
JUL ’24 507.5 4
DEC ’24 512.75 2
Soybeans
JAN ’24 1330.25 -5.75
MAR ’24 1347 -6.25
NOV ’24 1281.5 -6.75
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’24 625.25 15.75
MAY ’24 635.25 16
JUL ’24 641.5 15.75
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’24 658.75 26.5
MAY ’24 662.25 25.25
JUL ’24 664 24
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’24 730.5 18.75
JUL ’24 746.5 18.25
SEP ’24 754.25 17.25
S&P 500
MAR ’24 4681.25 2.75
Crude Oil
FEB ’24 69.11 -2.45
Gold
FEB ’24 1998 4.3

  • Corn is trading higher today but remains in the same rangebound pattern since the beginning of November. The next 7 days are forecast to be dry in Brazil which has given support to the corn market.

  • While weather has improved recently in central and northern Brazil, the corn crop was planted in dry conditions so dry periods like this upcoming one worsen the drought conditions. This will be favorable for the flooded southern region.

  • US corn demand has been firm with help from the fact that US corn is cheaper than Brazil with FOB prices yesterday at nearly a 40-cent discount to Brazil. US corn exports are 35% higher than a year ago.

  • CPI data was released today and showed inflation trending lower in November and rising 3.1% from a year ago. This was in line with expectations.

  • Soybeans are trading lower today after a strong rally in yesterday’s session that was driven by higher soy products and a hot and dry spell for Brazilian weather.

  • March soybeans are trading right at the 100-day moving average and have worked back closer to the center of their range. Soybean meal is higher today, while soybean oil is lower.

  • The USDA is predicting that Brazil’s soybean production will reach 161 mmt this season, but this guess is above CONAB and other analysts which are expecting production in the mid-150 mmt range due to the early heat and drought.

  • Argentina’s new president Milei was inaugurated on Sunday and yesterday he temporarily suspended its grains export register. This comes as he plans to significantly reduce export tariffs, which will likely cause a large influx of farmer selling if it is enacted.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher, with Chicago wheat trading even with the 100-day moving average again despite a lack of fresh Chinese purchases.

  • The Russian government has banned durum wheat exports until May 31st in order to stabilize prices domestically, but this may indicate that they are beginning to run low on supplies.

  • China purchased over 41 mb of US wheat last week which caused short covering by the funds, but both French and Australian wheat are cheaper on an FOB basis which could limit further US sales.

  • Although world ending supplies of wheat are at their tightest levels in 15 years, the USDA’s current estimate of ending stocks is at 4.57 billion bushels. Traders may only get concerned with that number if it falls below 4 bb.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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12-12 Opening Update: Grains Trading Higher Ahead of CPI Data Release

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’24 483.75 2.25
JUL ’24 505 1.5
DEC ’24 510.75 0

Soybeans

JAN ’24 1338.75 2.75
MAR ’24 1355 1.75
NOV ’24 1288 -0.25

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’24 611 1.5
MAY ’24 620.5 1.25
JUL ’24 627 1.25

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’24 635.75 3.5
MAY ’24 640 3
JUL ’24 643.75 3.75

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’24 711 -0.75
JUL ’24 730 1.75
SEP ’24 737.75 0.75

S&P 500

MAR ’24 4680.25 1.75

Crude Oil

FEB ’24 71.19 -0.37

Gold

FEB ’24 2003.2 9.5

  • Corn is trading slightly higher this morning but remains in a very tight trading range. Brazil is expecting lighter rains over the next few days which could add some weather premium.

  • Today the Federal Reserve will begin its two-day meeting in which it will decide on what to do with interest rates. Expectations are that rates will end up unchanged.

  • Scattered showers are forecast in South America through the 19th when heavier rains should pick back up, but the next 7 days should give southern Brazil which is too wet a break from more moisture.

  • Shipments of U.S. corn are 30% higher than last year’s pace with over half of the total shipments to Mexico, and U.S. corn remains the cheapest option.

  • Soybeans are trading slightly higher this morning after big gains yesterday that saw a 32-cent jump in January soybean prices. Both soybean meal and oil are higher as well.

  • A short term hot and dry forecast in Brazil has lent some support to both corn and soybeans , but conditions are expected to turn favorable again in 7 days.

  • Soybean planting in Brazil is 91% complete as of December 7 which compares with 85% the previous week and 95% a year earlier. 

  • Stockpiles of Malaysian palm oil fell last month for the first time since April on lower output. The decrease in production was larger than the decline in exports.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning after yesterday’s selloff that was likely caused by fund selling. Purchases from China last week caused short covering.

  • The Russian government has banned durum wheat exports until May 31st in order to stabilize prices domestically, but this may indicate that they are beginning to run low on supplies.

  • Winter wheat conditions in the U.S. are mostly in better shape than last year with the good to excellent rating at 39%, but last week that rating rose by 8 points.

  • In France, soft wheat plantings for the 2024 year fell by 5% with producers only planting 6.4m hectares of winter grains for the upcoming harvest.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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12-11 End of Day: Follow Through Weakness Leads Wheat and Corn Lower, Despite Sharply Higher Soybeans

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Carryover weakness from the wheat market, weak export inspections, and a looming 2.1 billion bushel carryout all weighed on the corn market which closed back below the 50-day moving average on the nearby continuous chart.

  • Another large private sale to unknown destinations and renewed South American weather concerns lent support to the soybean market which gapped higher on Sunday night’s open and closed near the top of its 31 ½ cent range.

  • Soybean meal and oil both closed very strong alongside soybeans with 8.5 and 0.91 gains respectively. Soybean meal is currently showing signs of being very oversold, much like soybeans, which is likely adding support to the market.

  • Weak export inspections may have added fuel to the fire as traders sold all three wheat classes on follow through technical weakness after showing signs of being overbought from the recent rally.

  • To see the updated US 8 – 14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, and South America’s 2-week forecast precipitation maps, courtesy of the National Weather Service, and Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Since the beginning of August, the corn market has traded sideways largely between 470 and 500. October’s brief breakout to 509 ½ and the subsequent failure to stay above the 50-day moving average indicates there is significant resistance in that price range. The failure of December’s USDA report to provide a bullish influence on the market puts the market at risk of drifting sideways to lower without a bullish catalyst. During last summer’s June rally, Grain Market Insider recommended making sales when Dec ’23 was around 624. For now, Grain Market Insider will continue to hold tight on any further sales recommendations for the next few weeks with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by then, Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Since late February ’22, Dec ’24 has been bound by 485 ¾ on the bottom and 602 on the top. After testing 491 to 547 last July, it has mostly traded between 500 and 525. During this time, Dec ’24 has held up better as bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop prices as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty remaining for the 2024 crop. Moving forward, the risk for 2024 prices is the same as for 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a sideways to lower trend without a bullish catalyst. Grain Market Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Grain Market Insider recommended buying Dec ‘23 560 and 610 call options ahead of the summer rally and having those in place helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700 or 800 that the call options would protect those sold bushels.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Aggressive selling in the wheat market dragged the corn market lower on the session. The March corn contract closed 4 cents lower, and below the 10-day moving average, which could bring additional selling pressure into the overnight session.

  • Despite the small increase in export demand in Friday’s WASDE report, corn ending stocks are still heavy in the market’s mind at 2.135 billion bushels. A stocks-to-use ratio of 14.7% is the largest in 5-years and projects to potentially lower corn prices to trigger additional demand.

  • With the recent prices rally, the funds decreased their net short position in the corn market by 45,000 contracts to –160,533 net short contracts. The price move was disappointing, only being 20-25 cents for that short liquidation. The decreased short position opens the door for additional selling pressure in the corn market in the short term.

  • Soybeans rallied aggressively to start the week, but that spill over support was ignored by the corn market. The Brazil weather forecast turned warmer and drier on afternoon models, and that triggered buying in the soybean market to start the week.

  • After a strong week last week, weekly export inspections for corn were disappointing at 712,000 MT (28 mb) at the low end of expectations. Total inspections in 2023-24 are now at 361 mb, up 28% from the previous year. The USDA is estimating corn exports at 2.100 bb in 2023-24, up 26% from the previous year.

Above: Since the lead month rolled to the March contract, the corn market has been rangebound between 470 on the downside and 497 on the upside. Upside resistance appears to be heavy given the bearish reversal that was posted on December 6. That heavy resistance also extends up to the October high of 509 ½, which the market will need more bullish influence to trade through. If the market retreats through nearby 470 support, major support remains near 460.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, December 5. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Managers net bought 45,945 contracts between November 29 – December 5, bringing their total position to a net short 160,533 contracts.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • Grain Market Insider sees a continued opportunity to sell a portion of your old crop 2023 soybean production. Since last summer, the soybean market has been mostly rangebound between 1435 on the topside and 1251 on the bottom. Within this range, the 1330 area has been a strong pivot point. Getting over 1330 the front month has been able to challenge the 1400 area, but below 1330 the front month has challenged the 1250 area. Today, the January contract attempted to get back over 1330, with an intraday high of 1330 ¾, but was rejected. This rejection poses the risk that the front month could challenge the 1250 area again. Also, given the projected record large global carryout of soybeans, Grain Market Insider wants to take advantage of the historical value of 1300+ soybean prices.

  • No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the inception of the Nov ’24 contract, it has traded at a discount to the 2023 crop from as much as 142 back in July, to as little as 17 ¾ in early October during harvest. While the spread difference between the two crops has seen a good amount of volatility, Nov ’24 has been largely rangebound between 1250 and 1320 since it rallied off its 1116 ¼ low last May. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be early winter at the earliest. Currently, Grain Market Insider’s focus is also on watching for any opportunities to recommend buying call options.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day sharply higher with support from higher soybean meal and oil, along with another export sale reported to China. South American weather was supportive as well today with heat and dryness forecast this week before rains are expected to fall later in the week.

  • Export inspections were a little soft today with the USDA reporting inspections at 36.2 mb for the week ending Thursday, December 7. Total inspections for 23/24 are now at 725 mb, which is down 16% from the previous year. The USDA is estimating total soybean exports at 1.755 bb for 23/24 which would be down 12% from the previous year.

  • Another flash sale was reported this morning by the USDA totaling 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 23/24 marketing year. This follows up on two sales from last Thursday and Friday which were 121,000 metric tons and 136,000 metric tons to unknown and China.

  • Traders were likely expecting more bullish numbers in Friday’s WASDE report, so the lack of any big changes caused some selling. Ending stocks were unchanged at 245 mb, but Brazilian production was lowered to 161 mmt from 163 mmt.

Above: Since retreating from the November highs, soybeans traded through 1297, but held support around 1292. If prices retreat lower through 1292, they could test support near 1250. Up above, psychological resistance may enter in near 1350, with heavy resistance up near recent highs around 1400.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, December 5. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 30,929 contracts between November 2 – December 5, bringing their total position to a net long 36,633 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • All three US wheat futures classes posted double-digit losses today. The weakness may have stemmed partly from a technically overbought situation. On daily stochastics, each of the three March wheats show a sell crossover signal, with momentum turning downward. In addition to the technical weakness, funds may be adding back to short positions after last Friday’s USDA report did not offer friendly news to feed the bull.  

  • Wheat inspections of 10.4 mb bring the 23/24 total inspections to 316 mb. That is down 23% from last year and is behind the pace needed to meet the USDA’s goal of 725 mb from Friday’s updated WASDE report.

  • Forecasted rains in the US southern Plains for the middle of this week are expected to limit upside potential for the wheat market, with areas of Texas and Kansas expected to receive widespread coverage. As of the last Crop Progress report, winter wheat conditions are much more favorable compared to last year.

  • There is talk that China may be interested in purchasing more US wheat, but with Russia still offering wheat for sale at cheap prices, more friendly news may be needed to rally the market. Unfortunately, there are concerns that demand from north African and Middle Eastern nations may be down from normal and last year.

  • Ukraine’s farm ministry has stated that the country reached a record grain yield, and they increased the 2023 harvest estimate to 59.7 mmt. Of that total, wheat harvest is expected to account for 22.2 mmt.  

  • This week, traders will receive the next statement from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates. Current expectations are that they may keep rates steady, but last week’s jobs data offered signs of labor market strength. This may mean that they will stick with their “higher rates for longer” stance, which may in turn affect commodity markets like wheat.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Between late July and the end of November, front month Chicago wheat trended lower, driven mostly by weak US demand and lower world wheat prices. During that time, and as managed funds established most of their short position of nearly 120,000 contracts, the market became extremely oversold. Since then, as the market rallied to a high of 649 ½, China made several US SRW wheat purchases, and funds covered more than 23,000 short contracts. During that runup, Grain Market Insider recommended making an additional sale to take advantage of the elevated prices in case the rally was temporary since US wheat prices remain elevated relative to other world exporters, despite the increase in demand.  If the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since July, new crop Chicago wheat has slowly worked its way lower with no significant opportunities to make additional sales. The lower market was driven mostly by managed fund selling from lower world wheat prices and weak US demand. As the market sold off, it became significantly oversold with managed funds building a short position in excess of 100,000 contracts. While bearish headwinds remain, the large fund short position and oversold condition of the market are two factors that could fuel a sizeable, short-covering rally. Additionally, price seasonals are supportive as prices tend to build in some risk premium going into the winter months. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and back in June, Grain Market Insider recommended two separate sales that averaged about 720 to take advantage of the brief upswing. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: After rallying to 649 ½ on short covering activity largely, from being oversold, Chicago wheat became overbought and began to turn lower following the December 8 USDA update. Overhead resistance comes in near 650, and again between 660 and 665. The overbought status of the market may encourage additional selling and a test of the 50-day moving average near 580, with further support near 556.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, December 5. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 23,764 contracts between November 29 – December 5, bringing their total position to a net short 96,222 contracts.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since late July old crop KC wheat has been in a downtrend that has largely been driven by managed fund selling on low world wheat prices and weak US export demand. As the selloff progressed, the market became oversold, and the funds established the largest short position in three years. Even though bullish headwinds remain, these two factors have fueled the recent short-covering rally, which could extend much further if a bullish catalyst enters the market. This would also line up with the historical tendency for price appreciation as the market builds risk premium going into wintertime. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter, as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices become over extended.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. At the end of August, the Jul ’24 contract broke out of roughly a one-year trading range, between 740 and 860, to the downside. Since that breakout, the market has continued to slowly stair-step lower, largely driven by managed fund selling, weak US export demand, and lower world wheat prices. As the selloff progressed, the funds built up the largest net short position in three years. While bearish headwinds remain, the significant oversold condition of the market and the large fund net short position are two factors that could fuel a short-covering rally in the months ahead. Price seasonals are also supportive as prices tend to build in some risk premium going into the winter months. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying Jul’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside following the range breakout. Though as the market recently got further extended into oversold territory and the July contract showed signs of support near 630, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Moving forward, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend exiting the last 25% on any further supportive market developments.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Minneapolis wheat continues to appear rangebound between about 750 on the topside and 700 on the bottom. If prices can break through upside resistance, they could run toward 790. Otherwise, if prices break out of the bottom end of the range, support may come in near the late May ’21 low near 669. 

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, December 5. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 10,891 contracts between November 29 – December 5, bringing their total position to a net short 38,858 contracts.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Following last July’s rally, the market has slowly stair-stepped lower, primarily due to low world wheat prices, weak US export demand, and managed fund selling. With the funds building a record large short position as the market sold off. Since weak US export demand remains the main impediment to higher prices, the market continues to be at risk of further downside erosion. The record large fund short position could fuel a rally back higher if a bullish catalyst enters the scene, and if that happens, it may signal that a near-term low is in place. Earlier this year, Grain Market Insider made a sales recommendation during the July rally near 820, and with that sale in place, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation this winter with an eye on considering additional sales around 725 – 775, and again north of 800. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. At the end of August, the Sept ’24 contract traded to a peak of 871 ¾ and has continued to slowly stair-step lower, largely driven by lower world wheat prices, weak US export demand, and managed fund selling, and as the selloff progressed, the funds built up a record large short position. While bearish headwinds remain, the significant oversold condition of the market and the large fund net short position are two factors that could fuel a short-covering rally in the months ahead. Price seasonals are also supportive as prices tend to build in some risk premium going into the winter months. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside following a 1-year range breakout in KC wheat. Though recently, as the KC market extended further into oversold territory and the July ‘24 KC wheat contract showed signs of support near 630, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. While in the same time frame, Grain Market Insider also recommended making an additional sale as the Sept ’24 Minneapolis contract broke long time 743 support. For now, moving forward, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend exiting the last 25% of the open puts on any further supportive market developments.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After making a new contract low on November 27, the March contract found buying interest from its oversold status and record fund short. Since then, the market posted a bearish reversal on December 6, showing significant resistance in the 750 area. If prices can break through upside resistance, they could run toward 790. If prices retreat, nearby support could be found around 718, with further support near the recent low of 697 ½.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, December 5. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,026 contracts between November 29 – December 5, bringing their total position to a net short 26,891 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: Brazil 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Above: Argentina 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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12-11 Midday: Another Flash Sale to China Adds Fuel to Today’s Soybean Rally

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’24 480.5 -5
JUL ’24 502 -4
DEC ’24 509.75 -2.75
Soybeans
JAN ’24 1323.25 19.25
MAR ’24 1342 19
NOV ’24 1282 11.5
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’24 609.75 -22
MAY ’24 618.75 -21.75
JUL ’24 624.25 -21.25
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’24 632.25 -28.75
MAY ’24 637.75 -28.75
JUL ’24 642.75 -27
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’24 713.75 -15.75
JUL ’24 730 -15.75
SEP ’24 737 -16.25
S&P 500
MAR ’24 4659.5 -0.75
Crude Oil
FEB ’24 71.09 -0.35
Gold
FEB ’24 1997.5 -17

  • Corn is trading lower to start the week following Friday’s WASDE report which revealed essentially no changes to corn production or outlook.

  • The USDA increased corn exports slightly in the report by 25 mb as demand has picked up, but the large ending stocks number of 2.13 billion bushels continues to pressure futures.

  • Over the weekend, it was reported that China would produce a record 288.8 mmt of corn this year which is up 4% from the previous year, but they will still need imports to meet their needs.

  • Weather in Brazil has improved with a generally more favorable forecast through January, but the crop is about 2 to 3 weeks behind due to the earlier hot and dry weather. The USDA still expects Brazilian production at 129 mmt.

  • Soybeans are trading higher today with support from both soybean meal and oil, along with a flash sale reported this morning to China.

  • This morning, the USDA reported private exporter sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2023/2024 marketing year.

  • On Friday, prices slipped following a neutral WASDE report, but the fact that ending stocks remain so tight at 245 mb has supported the market. A reduction in Brazilian production to 161 mmt was slightly supportive.

  • South American soybeans are expected to benefit from improved rain chances, along with corn, into next year with heavier rains forecast in the central and northern regions.

  • Wheat is trading lower today after an impressive rally recently that was caused by a large net short position held by the funds and purchases of US wheat by China.

  • Short covering was a big reason for the rally in wheat recently, and if Chinese purchases don’t continue, funds may continue adding to their short positions again.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back 23,764 contracts of wheat which brought their net short position to 96,222 contracts.

  • Ukraine is expecting to harvest a record 59.7 mmt of grain with wheat making up 22.2 mmt. The ongoing struggle will be safely exporting their grain.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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12-11 Opening Update: Grains Mixed to Start the Week with Soybeans Higher

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’24 485.25 -0.25
JUL ’24 505.5 -0.5
DEC ’24 512.25 -0.25

Soybeans

JAN ’24 1314.25 10.25
MAR ’24 1333.75 10.75
NOV ’24 1277 6.5

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’24 625.5 -6.25
MAY ’24 634.5 -6
JUL ’24 640.25 -5.25

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’24 654.25 -6.75
MAY ’24 659 -7.5
JUL ’24 663.5 -6.25

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’24 726.25 -3.25
JUL ’24 740 -5.75
SEP ’24 753.25 -9.25

S&P 500

MAR ’24 4659 -1.25

Crude Oil

FEB ’24 70.98 -0.46

Gold

FEB ’24 2011.9 -2.6

  • Corn is trading slightly lower this morning with prices remaining rangebound following Friday’s unsurprising WASDE report.

  • In the report, the USDA kept their expectations for Brazilian production unchanged at 129.0 mmt which is above CONAB’s estimate of 118.5 mmt.

  • Brazilian corn is reportedly 40% planted with only 2% of the crop receiving a poor to very poor rating. Light rains are expected to be followed by heavier amounts later this week in central Brazil.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials buying back 45,945 contracts of corn which reduced their net short position to 160,533 contracts. 

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning but remain on the low end of their current trading range. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher this morning.

  • In Friday’s WASDE report, the USDA made almost no changes to soybeans and kept U.S. ending stocks the same at 245 mb which is the lowest in eight years. Brazilian production was lowered from 163 mmt to 161 mmt.

  • Argentina’s production was unchanged at 48.0 mmt, and their crop is reportedly 52% planted with only 2% rated poor to very poor.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials exiting 30,929 contracts which reduced their net long position to just 36,663 contracts.

  • Wheat is trading lower this morning but remains in an uptrend with prices hugging just below the 100-day moving average. Renewed buying interest from China has been supportive.

  • Last week, China purchased 41.2 mb of soft red winter wheat from the U.S. which put total purchases above 80 mb, more than China purchased last year.

  • Ukraine is expecting to harvest a record 59.7 mmt of grain with wheat making up 22.2 mmt. The ongoing struggle will be safely exporting their grain.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back 23,764 contracts of wheat which brought their net short position to 96,222 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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12-08 End of Day: Fresh Chinese Purchases Fail to Support as Markets Fade Following USDA Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Following quiet overnight trade that was higher, the corn market faded lower into the close following the release of today’s USDA WASDE update that showed only a minor 25 mb reduction to 23/24 ending stocks by raising export demand by the same amount.

  • Markets sold off, giving up earlier gains as the USDA left the soybean complex’s supply/demand numbers unchanged across all three commodities, and increased global stocks above expectations by 1.5 mmt in today’s update.

  • Despite the report of another Chinese purchase of SRW and the USDA’s reduction of wheat ending stocks by 25 mb, the wheat complex sold off as world wheat production was raised by 1 mmt and traders took profits from the recent rally.

  • US employment data that was released this morning came in better than expected. The unemployment rate came in at 3.7% versus 3.9% expected and rallied the US dollar, possibly adding some resistance to grain markets.  

  • To see the updated US 8 – 14 da temperature and precipitation outlooks, and South America’s 1 week total accumulated precipitation, the National Weather Service, and Climate Prediction Center, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

  • CORN ACTION PLAN SUMMARY (approximately 3 bullet points)

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Since the beginning of August, the corn market has traded sideways largely between 470 and 500. October’s brief breakout to 509 ½ and the subsequent failure to stay above the 50-day moving average indicates there is significant resistance in that price range. The failure of December’s USDA report to provide a bullish influence on the market puts the market at risk of drifting sideways to lower without a bullish catalyst. During last summer’s June rally, Grain Market Insider recommended making sales when Dec ’23 was around 624. For now, Grain Market Insider will continue to hold tight on any further sales recommendations for the next few weeks with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by then, Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Since late February ’22, Dec ’24 has been bound by 485 ¾ on the bottom and 602 on the top. After testing 491 to 547 last July, it has mostly traded between 500 and 525. During this time, Dec ’24 has held up better as bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop prices as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty remaining for the 2024 crop. Moving forward, the risk for 2024 prices is the same as for 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a sideways to lower trend without a bullish catalyst. Grain Market Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Grain Market Insider recommended buying Dec ‘23 560 and 610 call options ahead of the summer rally and having those in place helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700 or 800 that the call options would protect those sold bushels.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn prices faded from the highs after the USDA report. Additional purchases by China of wheat and soybeans, and a corn sale to “Unknown destinations” helped support the market early in the session, but prices faded after the USDA report’s release. March corn lost 2 ¼ cents on the day, but finished ¾ cents higher on the week.

  • The USDA raised export projections by 25 mb to 2.100 billion bushels for the marketing year in the USDA WASDE report on Friday morning. The USDA cited recent strength in export demand as the rationale. This lowered projected carryout to 2.131 billion bushels for ending stock for the 23/24 marketing year, below analyst expectations.

  • The slip in prices moved March futures back to the key support level of 485. March futures have traded around this price point the past six sessions and have consistently been in this area since the start of November. 

  • The USDA announced a private exporter sale of corn to Unknown Destination for 6.5 mb for the 23/24 marketing year this morning. The export sales help support overnight and morning corn prices.

  • In the WASDE report, USDA left Brazil and Argentina corn production unchanged from their November projections, taking a “wait and see” approach to the corn crops. On Thursday, CONAB estimated Brazil’s total corn crop for 23/24 at 118.53 mmt, down from previous estimates of 119.02 mmt. The USDA is forecasting a crop of 129 mmt.

Above: Since the lead month rolled to the March contract, the corn market has been rangebound between 470 on the downside and 497 on the upside. Upside resistance appears to be heavy given the bearish reversal that was posted on December 6. That heavy resistance also extends up to the October high of 509 ½, which the market will need more bullish influence to trade through. If the market retreats through nearby 470 support, major support remains near 460.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • Grain Market Insider recommends selling a portion of your old crop 2023 soybean production. Since last summer, the soybean market has been mostly rangebound between 1435 on the topside and 1251 on the bottom. Within this range, the 1330 area has been a strong pivot point. Getting over 1330 the front month has been able to challenge the 1400 area, but below 1330 the front month has challenged the 1250 area. Today, the January contract attempted to get back over 1330, with an intraday high of 1330 ¾, but was rejected. This rejection poses the risk that the front month could challenge the 1250 area again. Also, given the projected record large global carryout of soybeans, Grain Market Insider wants to take advantage of the historical value of 1300+ soybean prices.

  • No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the inception of the Nov ’24 contract, it has traded at a discount to the 2023 crop from as much as 142 back in July, to as little as 17 ¾ in early October during harvest. While the spread difference between the two crops has seen a good amount of volatility, Nov ’24 has been largely rangebound between 1250 and 1320 since it rallied off its 1116 ¼ low last May. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be early winter at the earliest. Currently, Grain Market Insider’s focus is also on watching for any opportunities to recommend buying call options.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower following today’s lackluster WASDE report, which saw very few changes from last month’s report. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day lower as well, with larger losses in soybean oil.

  • For the week, January soybeans lost 21 cents, January soybean meal lost 8.0 dollars, and January soybean oil lost 1.25 cents. This comes as non-commercials have been exiting a portion of their net long positions with improvements in South American weather.

  • In today’s USDA report, US ending stocks were unchanged at 245 mb, which was mostly in line with expectations. World ending stocks were reduced slightly, Argentinian soybean production was unchanged at 48.0 mmt, and Brazilian soybean production was reduced to 161.0 mmt from 163.0 mmt.

  • This morning, the USDA reported a private exporter sale of 136,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year.

Above: Since retreating from the November highs, soybeans have traded back through the 50-day moving average and 1297 support. Currently, the trend is lower, but the market shows signs of being oversold, which can be supportive if prices turn back higher. For now, support below the market remains near 1250, with nearby resistance near the 50-day moving average, around 1320, and again near 1352.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower in all three US classes today after a relatively neutral WASDE report. The US 23/24 wheat ending stocks number was lowered to 658 mb, versus 684 mb last month. The world carryout came in at 258.2 mmt, compared to 258.7 in November.

  • US wheat exports were raised 25 mb from last month’s estimate, now at 725 mb for 23/24. The negativity at the close may be a reflection of a higher world production number though, at 783.01 mmt versus 781.98 mmt last month. With the recent run higher, profit taking was also a likely culprit.

  • Aside from today’s USDA report, there was also another announced sale of US wheat to China for the 23/24 marketing year, this time for 110,000 mt. Despite a lower close today, if these purchases continue, it will lend support to the market. On the other hand, rain forecasted for the US southern Plains next week may keep upside potential limited for now.

  • Egypt’s most recent wheat tender for 420,000 mt was fulfilled by Russia at $260 per mt FOB. France’s offer at $268 was the next cheapest, with Romania following them. Given the competition, it is a bit surprising, albeit welcome, that China is purchasing US wheat.

  • Today’s Jobs report indicated that the US added 199,000 jobs, and unemployment has fallen to 3.7%. This has the US Dollar Index higher, which may also have contributed to the negative close in wheat. Additionally, this may mean that the Federal Reserve sticks with their plan to have higher interest rates for longer; this may continue to affect commodity prices down the road.

  • From a global perspective, as of the July 1, the beginning of their marketing year, Ukraine’s total grain harvest has reached 57.6 mmt. Of that total, 22.5 mmt is wheat, which is said to be up 16% year on year. Over in France, winter wheat planting is 89% complete as of December 4. Typically, they are done by the end of November, but significant rain delays were present this year. Additionally, 77% of the French crop is reported to be in good to excellent condition.  

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • Grain Market Insider sees an active opportunity to sell a portion of your 2023 Soft Red Winter wheat crop. Since the end of July, the wheat market has been in a downtrend due to low world wheat prices generating weak US export demand, with no significant rallies to take advantage of. This current rally has now taken prices in excess of 80 cents from the November low and coincides with a 38% retracement back toward last July’s highs, and the 612 to 646 congestion area from last September. Considering this bounce in the market may be temporary, Grain Market Insider recommends taking advantage of this rally, and these still historically good prices, to make an additional sale on your 2023 crop.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. Since July, new crop Chicago wheat has slowly worked its way lower with no significant opportunities to make additional sales. The lower market was driven mostly by managed fund selling from lower world wheat prices and weak US demand. As the market sold off, it became significantly oversold with managed funds building a short position in excess of 100,000 contracts. While bearish headwinds remain, the large fund short position and oversold condition of the market are two factors that could fuel a sizeable, short-covering rally. Additionally, price seasonals are supportive as prices tend to build in some risk premium going into the winter months. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion, and back in June, Grain Market Insider recommended two separate sales that averaged about 720 to take advantage of the brief upswing. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: Short covering and a seasonal build up of weather premium has driven Chicago wheat through the late August highs and may be on track to test the next level of resistance between 660 and 665 left in early August. The market shows signs of being overbought and could retreat. If it does, support may come in around 605 – 600, and again near the 50-day moving average near 575.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since late July old crop KC wheat has been in a downtrend that has largely been driven by managed fund selling on low world wheat prices and weak US export demand. As the selloff progressed, the market became oversold, and the funds established the largest short position in three years. Even though bullish headwinds remain, these two factors have fueled the recent short-covering rally, which could extend much further if a bullish catalyst enters the market. This would also line up with the historical tendency for price appreciation as the market builds risk premium going into wintertime. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter, as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices become over extended.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. At the end of August, the Jul ’24 contract broke out of roughly a one-year trading range, between 740 and 860, to the downside. Since that breakout, the market has continued to slowly stair-step lower, largely driven by managed fund selling, weak US export demand, and lower world wheat prices. As the selloff progressed, the funds built up the largest net short position in three years. While bearish headwinds remain, the significant oversold condition of the market and the large fund net short position are two factors that could fuel a short-covering rally in the months ahead. Price seasonals are also supportive as prices tend to build in some risk premium going into the winter months. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying Jul’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside following the range breakout. Though as the market recently got further extended into oversold territory and the July contract showed signs of support near 630, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Moving forward, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend exiting the last 25% on any further supportive market developments.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Since the end of November, the wheat market has rallied largely on short covering activity from being extremely oversold. The market is now showing signs of being overbought and has posted a bearish reversal, though it’s close above the 50-day moving average suggests that there could still be more strength in the market. If not, and prices retreat below the 50-day moving average, support below the market may come in between 595 and 575.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Following last July’s rally, the market has slowly stair-stepped lower, primarily due to low world wheat prices, weak US export demand, and managed fund selling. With the funds building a record large short position as the market sold off. Since weak US export demand remains the main impediment to higher prices, the market continues to be at risk of further downside erosion. The record large fund short position could fuel a rally back higher if a bullish catalyst enters the scene, and if that happens, it may signal that a near-term low is in place. Earlier this year, Grain Market Insider made a sales recommendation during the July rally near 820, and with that sale in place, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation this winter with an eye on considering additional sales around 725 – 775, and again north of 800. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. At the end of August, the Sept ’24 contract traded to a peak of 871 ¾ and has continued to slowly stair-step lower, largely driven by lower world wheat prices, weak US export demand, and managed fund selling, and as the selloff progressed, the funds built up a record large short position. While bearish headwinds remain, the significant oversold condition of the market and the large fund net short position are two factors that could fuel a short-covering rally in the months ahead. Price seasonals are also supportive as prices tend to build in some risk premium going into the winter months. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside following a 1-year range breakout in KC wheat. Though recently, as the KC market extended further into oversold territory and the July ‘24 KC wheat contract showed signs of support near 630, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. While in the same time frame, Grain Market Insider also recommended making an additional sale as the Sept ’24 Minneapolis contract broke long time 743 support. For now, moving forward, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend exiting the last 25% of the open puts on any further supportive market developments.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After making a new contract low on November 27, the March contract found buying interest from its oversold status and record fund short. Since then, the market posted a bearish reversal on December 6, showing significant resistance in the 750 area. If prices can break through upside resistance, they could run toward 790. If prices retreat, nearby support could be found around 718, with further support near the recent low of 697 ½.

Other Charts / Weather

Brazil 7 day total accumulated precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

Argentina 7 day total accumulated precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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12-08 Midday: Ahead of the USDA Report: Corn Steady, Beans Higher, Wheat Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’24 489.25 1.25
JUL ’24 508.75 0.75
DEC ’24 514 0.75
Soybeans
JAN ’24 1320.75 9
MAR ’24 1339.5 9.25
NOV ’24 1282.75 8.25
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’24 635 -7.25
MAY ’24 643.25 -6.25
JUL ’24 647.25 -5.75
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’24 668 0.5
MAY ’24 670.75 1.25
JUL ’24 671.75 1.25
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’24 737.5 0.25
JUL ’24 753.5 -1.25
SEP ’24 758.25 -4.25
S&P 500
MAR ’24 4641.75 1.25
Crude Oil
FEB ’24 71.43 1.84
Gold
FEB ’24 2020.7 -25.7

  • The USDA reported private exporter sales of 165,000 mt of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 23/24 marketing year.

  • March corn continues to be in a relatively sideways trading range. The key to price direction will likely be just how much corn China purchases from the US going forward.

  • Today’s unemployment report showed that the US economy added 199,000 jobs (above expectations) and unemployment fell to 3.7%. This could affect Fed policy going forward, as they may maintain the policy on interest rates of higher for longer.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, corn planting in Argentina is 40.3% complete.

  • The USDA reported private exporter sales of 136,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year.

  • Brazil’s weather forecast continues to show more rain in the second week of the forecast, but is dry for the first week. This has been a continued pattern; as time advances, the rains are less than initially forecasted.

  • Higher palm oil and crude oil this morning are supporting soybean oil, and thus, soybean futures. Malaysian palm oil was up over 1% Friday, and on the Chinese Dalian exchange, both soybean and palm oil were higher as well.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, soybean planting in Argentina is 52% done. They also said that the crop condition is 36% good to excellent.

  • The USDA reported private exporters’ sales of 110,000 mt of SRW wheat for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year.

  • The US southern Plains are expected to receive good rains mid next week, with the forecast calling for anywhere between 0.75 and 2.00 inches. This could limit upside potential in the wheat market a bit.

  • After eight higher closes in a row, March Chicago wheat is trading lower this morning. This could be some profit taking after the recent run higher. However, with another sale to China, mentioned above, it could spark some more buying interest and fund short covering.

  • Egypt’s wheat tender was fulfilled by Russia for 420,000 mt, and they paid $260 per mt FOB. France would have been second in line  at $268 per mt FOB offer.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s wheat harvest is said to now be 48.2% complete.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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12-08 Opening Update: Markets mixed in quiet trade ahead of today’s USDA update.

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’24 488.25 0.25
JUL ’24 508 0
DEC ’24 514 0.75

Soybeans

JAN ’24 1316.5 4.75
MAR ’24 1334.5 4.25
NOV ’24 1277.5 3

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’24 636 -6.25
MAY ’24 642.5 -7
JUL ’24 646.25 -6.75

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’24 664.75 -2.75
MAY ’24 666.75 -2.75
JUL ’24 668 -2.5

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’24 737 -0.25
JUL ’24 754 -0.75
SEP ’24 762 -0.5

S&P 500

MAR ’24 4634.25 -6.25

Crude Oil

FEB ’24 70.85 1.26

Gold

FEB ’24 2045.6 -0.8

  • Corn is trading near unchanged in a tight 2 1/2 cent range in anticipation of today’s USDA WASDE update.

  • Weekly export sales were released yesterday.  Weekly corn sales came in at just under 51 mb, with the total commitment at 1.014 bb, 35% higher than last year.

  • The USDA will release the next WASDE report today at 11:00 a.m. CST. Expectations are for slight reductions in US corn ending stocks due to small demand adjustments from 2.156 billion bushels to 2.152 billion bushels. 

  • CONAB estimated the Brazilian corn crop at 118 mmt, down from the USDA’s last estimate of 129 mmt.  Current trade estimates that the USDA will put that crop at 127 mmt in today’s report.

  • The soybean complex is trading higher this morning, showing small gains across the board in all three commodities, with soybeans in the upper end of a relatively tight 7-cent range.

  • Weekly soybean sales came in at 56 mb in yesterday’s weekly sales update from the USDA.  Total commitments are currently running 16% below last year, where the USDA is projecting a 12% decline.

  • There are few changes expected in today’s USDA report. The trade estimates US 23/24 ending stocks to come in at 242 mb versus last month’s reported 245 mb.  The USDA may raise domestic crush and lower exports in equal amounts to reflect changes in demand.

  • CONAB estimated Brazil’s soybean crop at 160 mmt, down 2 mmt from its previous estimate, and the USDA’s current estimate of 163 mmt.  There are some private estimates as low as 155 mmt due to the adverse weather conditions.

  • The wheat complex is trading mostly lower across all three classes with Chicago wheat the weakest as traders likely square positions ahead of today’s USDA update.

  • Today’s USDA report is expected to be relatively neutral for wheat with little to no changes expected to last month’s 23/24 ending stocks estimate of 684 mb.

  • The recent wheat sales to China that have added fuel to the rally in the wheat markets, may indicate that the UDSA’s current 700 mb export goal is too low, though they are not expected to be reflected in today’s monthly update.

  • Russia continues to dominate the world wheat market with offers that were $20/mt below France and $60 below Romania for an Egyptian tender of 440 mt.

  • Scattered showers are forecasted for the US southern plains and should help with the dry conditions. 

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.