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12-28 Opening Update: Grains Unchanged to Lower on Thin Volume and Lack of Fresh News

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’24 476.25 -0.25
JUL ’24 497 -1
DEC ’24 506 -0.5

Soybeans

JAN ’24 1315.5 -1.25
MAR ’24 1319 -1.5
NOV ’24 1263.25 -2

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’24 625 2
MAY ’24 636 2.25
JUL ’24 640.25 0.75

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’24 635 0
MAY ’24 638.25 0.75
JUL ’24 639.5 -0.5

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’24 723.5 1.75
JUL ’24 740 -7.5
SEP ’24 747.75 -8

S&P 500

MAR ’24 4834 0.5

Crude Oil

FEB ’24 73.17 -0.94

Gold

FEB ’24 2083 -10.1

  • Corn is unchanged to start the day  with the March contract continuing to trade rangebound to slightly lower. Large US ending stocks and an upcoming South American harvest are adding pressure.

  • Demand for ethanol as well as good export demand has kept prices from falling much lower. Expectations for today’s EIA report see production lower at 1.062m b/d and stockpiles at 22.923 m bbl.

  • The USDA’s last estimate for Brazilian corn production was 129 mmt, but Brazil’s estimates are lower at 118 mmt. Estimates for Argentina were at 55 mmt, but their final production could be higher.

  • The decline in estimates for Brazilian corn production is due to planting delays of the first crop and likely planting delays of the second crop as the soybean harvest will be late.

  • Soybeans are trading slightly lower today but had three consecutively higher closes over the past few days as the US expects tight ending stocks.

  • Dr. Michael Cordonnier has lowered his estimate of the Brazilian soybean crop to 153 mmt which is below the USDA’s last guess of 161 mmt.

  • Argentina’s soy crop is estimated at 48 mmt or potentially higher thanks to very good weather conditions early in the season and good soil moisture.

  • While both soybean meal and oil are slightly higher this morning, the recent selloff has caused crush incentives to fall with the value of crushed beans exceeding uncrushed by $1.81 per bushel based off January futures.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning after they broke to the upside on Tuesday and may be putting a squeeze on the managed funds.

  • The March contract of Chicago wheat is on track for a 30-cent plus gain on the month which would be the largest monthly gain since 2022.

  • SovEcon has cut their Russian wheat export estimates to 48.6 mmt which compares to a previous estimate of 48.8 mmt as increasing freight rates cause weaker shipment numbers.

  • Yesterday, managed funds were net sellers of Chicago wheat, selling an estimated 4,000 contracts. They currently hold an estimated short position of 54,000 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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12-27 End of Day: Grains Settle Mixed on Light Holiday Volume

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • A more favorable outlook for Brazilian weather, a lower wheat market, and a lack of fresh bullish news led the corn market to end the day lower on light holiday volume, breaking its three day run of higher closes.

  • With support coming from a bullish reversal in soybean oil, soybeans closed mostly higher on the day after trading below unchanged for much of the session on low year-end holiday volume.

  • Soybean meal and oil closed in opposite directions with meal lower on the day and oil higher, though both products rallied off the day’s lows. Position squaring appears to have dominated the product’s trade, as traders look to even up their respective long meal or short oil positions before the year’s end.

  • The falling US dollar failed to ignite any follow through buying in the wheat complex, as all three wheat classes gave up a portion of yesterday’s gains. Chicago, being the weakest of the three, led the way with double digit losses across the board, while old crop KC gained on new crop, likely on improved conditions.

  • The US dollar continued its downtrend and traded to its lowest level since July 27, 2023, on expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin reducing rates before other central banks. The downtrend in the dollar makes US exports more competitive and may provide some level of underlying support.

  • To see the updated GRACE-Based Root Zone Soil Moisture Drought Indicator maps of the US and South America, courtesy of NASA GRACE and the NDMC, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Since the beginning of August, the corn market has traded sideways largely between 470 and 500. October’s brief breakout to 509 ½ and the subsequent failure to stay above the 50-day moving average indicates there is significant resistance in that price range. The failure of December’s USDA report to provide a bullish influence on the market puts the market at risk of drifting sideways to lower without a bullish catalyst. During last summer’s June rally, Grain Market Insider recommended making sales when Dec ’23 was around 624. For now, Grain Market Insider will continue to hold tight on any further sales recommendations for the next few weeks with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by then, Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Since late February ’22, Dec ’24 has been bound by 485 ¾ on the bottom and 602 on the top. After testing 491 to 547 last July, it has mostly traded between 500 and 525. During this time, Dec ’24 has held up better as bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop prices as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty remaining for the 2024 crop. Moving forward, the risk for 2024 prices is the same as for 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a sideways to lower trend without a bullish catalyst. Grain Market Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Grain Market Insider recommended buying Dec ‘23 560 and 610 call options ahead of the summer rally and having those in place helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700 or 800 that the call options would protect those sold bushels.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Today’s lower close in corn marks the end of a three-session rally for the March contract. Without much fresh news to drive the market and a more favorable outlook for Brazil, corn did not find much footing today. Additionally, shortened holiday weeks tend to be a bit choppy with lighter trade volume.

  • Private estimates of the Brazil corn crop are as low as 117 mmt, whereas the USDA is using a figure of 129 mmt. There may be some delays to safrinha planting due to weather issues, but without the crop in the ground, it may be too early to determine if that will significantly impact the crop.

  • According to the CFTC, as of December 19, managed funds added nearly 30,000 short corn contracts to bring their total short position to 180,724. This may be adding some pressure to the market, but also primes it for a short covering rally, provided there is a catalyst to trigger it.

  • China has approved 26 seed companies to sell GMO corn and soybean seed in certain provinces. As China works to become more self-sufficient, it may mean that they import fewer goods and commodities from the US. However, this will be bearish in the long term, and is not necessarily a major concern now. With that said, it has been reported that Chinese corn producers are planning to more than double their GMO corn planting next year versus 670,000 hectares in 2023.

Above: Since the middle of November, the March corn contract has been rangebound mostly between 495 up top and 470 on the bottom. Overhead resistance lies between 490 and 497, with heavier resistance near 510, and without fresh bullish input, the market runs the risk testing major support near 460.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Front month soybeans continue to be rangebound, largely between 1290 and 1400. At some point, the front month will eventually break out of that range, and if it breaks out to the downside, then the first risk would be 1180. If the breakout occurs to the topside, then the first opportunity would be 1510. The biggest looming catalyst behind a potential downside breakout is the projected record global carryout of soybeans, while the biggest looming catalyst for a potential upside breakout is continued adverse South American weather. Given the uncertainty of which direction the market will go, Grain Market Insider recently recommended adding to sales as the current price level is still historically good. It’s been disappointing how the market has been unable to push higher despite the South American planting disruptions. Because of that, Grain Market Insider’s concern is that, if the weather pattern doesn’t remain adverse, the path of least resistance could be lower. Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities, as well as potential re-ownership strategies.

  • Grain Market Insider recommends buying November ’24 1280 soybean calls and November ‘24 1360 calls in equal quantities with a total net spend of approximately 111 cents plus commission and fees. Since the middle of last July, the Nov ’24 contract has been largely rangebound between 1250 and 1320.  Today’s settlement of 1265 ¼ is the fourth day in a row with a close above 1250 support and the third day in a row with a stronger closing price. Grain Market Insider wants to take advantage of this value area and recommend purchasing call options. Purchasing call options now will give you confidence to make sales against anticipated production for the 2024 crop, which is yet to be planted, and they will also help to protect those future sales in the event prices continue to rally further.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Year end trade added to the volatility in the soybean complex, which saw two sided trade on relatively low holiday volume. Soybeans reversed course, ending the day higher after trading lower in the overnight session. Soybean oil lent support to soybeans as it posted a bullish reversal and also closed higher on the day, while meal closed lower, but well off its lows.

  • Overall, Brazilian weather is improving with showers throughout central and northern Brazil and a wet forecast with shower activity set to favor the northeastern areas, though the forecasts have improved, they still need to verify into actual rainfall, which at times has been less than expected.

  • The situation in Argentina has improved considerably from last year, with favorable weather overall and expectations of a normal to possibly above normal crop. The potential increase in Argentina’s production could more than offset the potential losses in Brazil, which is adding resistance to prices.

  • Brazilian crop watcher, Dr. Michael Cordonnier, lowered his estimate of Brazil’s soybean production to 153 mmt, and cited the variable rain amounts and coverage over the past week for his conclusions.

  • In other news, according to China’s Ministry and Agricultural and Rural Affairs, China approved 26 seed companies to produce, distribute, and sell GMO corn and soybean seeds. The move comes as the country attempts to become more self-sufficient in securing its own food supply.

Above: After posting a high of 1398 ½ in November, soybeans found support around 1292. Overhead, nearby resistance remains near 1350 and again around 1400. If the market breaks support at 1292, it runs the risk of testing 1250.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Most of yesterday’s gains in wheat were erased today with lower closes in all three US futures classes. In addition, the spread between the March contracts of Chicago and Kansas City wheat has been narrowing as the conditions in the US southern Plains improve with more moisture.

  • Wheat also saw weakness today, even though the US Dollar Index continues to drop. At the time of this writing, it has broken below the 101 level and is the lowest it has been since July 27. This should make US wheat more attractive to global importers. But Russia continues to be the cheapest origin with FOB values around $240 to $243 per mt.

  • Coceral, a grain trade association, has estimated that EU soft wheat production next year will be 139.4 mmt, up just 0.1 mmt from 2023. This is practically no change and comes even though France may have reduced production due to weather issues that delayed planting; Spain is expected to make up the difference.

  • According to Russia, their 2023 grain harvest is the second largest on record at 142.6 mmt. Of that total, wheat accounted for about 93 mmt. That is down from 104.2 mmt of wheat in 2022, but is still a large amount that is sure to keep Russian prices low and a dominance in terms of the export market.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Between late July and the end of November, front month Chicago wheat trended lower, driven mostly by weak US demand and lower world wheat prices. During that time, and as managed funds established most of their short position of nearly 120,000 contracts, the market became extremely oversold. Since then, as the market rallied to a high of 649 ½, China made several US SRW wheat purchases, and funds covered more than 23,000 short contracts. During that runup, Grain Market Insider recommended making an additional sale to take advantage of the elevated prices in case the rally was temporary since US wheat prices remain elevated relative to other world exporters, despite the increase in demand. If the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. From the end of July, the July ’24 contract has slowly stepped its way down to a low of 586 in sympathy with the front month contract where managed money established a large short position during that time. Since then, July ’24 rallied alongside the March ’24 contract, as the funds covered over 30k contracts of their nearly 130k short contract position. While bearish headwinds remain, the funds continue to carry a large short position and seasonals remain supportive for the addition of weather risk premium, which are two factors that could fuel further short covering and another leg up in prices. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Back in June, Grain Market Insider recommended two separate sales that averaged about 720 to take advantage of the brief upswing. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: After rallying to 649 ½, Chicago wheat became overbought and turned lower after the December 8 USDA report. Since then, the market has found nearby support near 600. Nearby resistance remains overhead near 650, with additional resistance between 660 and 665. If the market breaks nearby support, it may test the 50-day moving average, and then support near 556.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since late July old crop KC wheat has been in a downtrend that has largely been driven by managed fund selling on low world wheat prices and weak US export demand. As the selloff progressed, the market became oversold, and the funds established the largest short position in three years. Even though bullish headwinds remain, these two factors have fueled the recent short-covering rally, which could extend much further if a bullish catalyst enters the market. This would also line up with the historical tendency for price appreciation as the market builds risk premium going into wintertime. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter, as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices become over extended.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. At the end of August, the July ’24 contract broke out of roughly a one-year trading range and stepped down to a 609 ¼ low in late November, largely driven by managed fund selling in the front month on weak US export demand and lower world wheat prices. Since then, the funds covered part of their large short position which also rallied prices in the July ’24 contract. While bearish headwinds remain, managed funds continue to hold a sizable, short position, and price seasonals remain positive for adding weather risk premium. These are two factors that could fuel additional short covering and rally prices in the months ahead. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying Jul’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside following the range breakout. As the market recently got further extended into oversold territory and the July contract showed signs of support near 630, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Moving forward, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend exiting the last 25% on any further supportive market developments.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Since posting bearish reversals on December 6 and 8, the market has been consolidating while holding support around 625, with close in resistance just overhead at the 50-day moving average. If the market breaks lower, the next area of support may come in around 595 and 575. Resistance above the 50-day moving average remains around 675 – 680.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Following last July’s rally, the market has slowly stair-stepped lower, primarily due to low world wheat prices, weak US export demand, and managed fund selling. With the funds building a record large short position as the market sold off. Since weak US export demand remains the main impediment to higher prices, the market continues to be at risk of further downside erosion. The record large fund short position could fuel a rally back higher if a bullish catalyst enters the scene, and if that happens, it may signal that a near-term low is in place. Earlier this year, Grain Market Insider made a sales recommendation during the July rally near 820, and with that sale in place, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation this winter with an eye on considering additional sales around 725 – 775, and again north of 800. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. At the end of August, the Sept ’24 contract traded to a peak of 871 ¾ and has continued to slowly stair-step lower, largely driven by lower world wheat prices, weak US export demand, and managed fund selling, and as the selloff progressed, the funds built up a record large short position. While bearish headwinds remain, the significant oversold condition of the market and the large fund net short position are two factors that could fuel a short-covering rally in the months ahead. Price seasonals are also supportive as prices tend to build in some risk premium going into the winter months. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside following a 1-year range breakout in KC wheat. Though recently, as the KC market extended further into oversold territory and the July ‘24 KC wheat contract showed signs of support near 630, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. While in the same time frame, Grain Market Insider also recommended making an additional sale as the Sept ’24 Minneapolis contract broke long time 743 support. For now, moving forward, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend exiting the last 25% of the open puts on any further supportive market developments.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After making a new contract low on November 27, the March contract found buying interest from its oversold status and record fund short. Since then, the market posted a bearish reversal on December 6, showing significant resistance in the 750 area. If prices can break through upside resistance, they could run toward 790. If prices retreat, nearby support could be found around 718, with further support near the recent low of 697 ½.

Other Charts / Weather

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12-27 Midday: Grain Markets Reverse Tuesday’s Gains at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’24 476.75 -3.5
JUL ’24 498.25 -3.25
DEC ’24 506.75 -2.75
Soybeans
JAN ’24 1306.25 -7
MAR ’24 1312.5 -6.5
NOV ’24 1258.75 -6.5
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’24 622.75 -13.5
MAY ’24 633.25 -13
JUL ’24 640 -13
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’24 630.75 -12
MAY ’24 634.5 -11.25
JUL ’24 639.25 -11
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’24 720 -9.25
JUL ’24 736.75 -10.75
SEP ’24 746.75 -9
S&P 500
MAR ’24 4821.75 -3.25
Crude Oil
FEB ’24 74.75 -0.82
Gold
FEB ’24 2091.2 21.4

  • After three higher closes in a row, March corn is trading lower this morning. This may be due to profit taking, a lack of significant news, as well as more favorable weather conditions in South America.

  • Despite some of the recent attacks on vessels in the Red Sea, some shipping companies have resumed travel there in the face of the associated risks.

  • The USDA is estimating Brazilian corn production at 129 mmt, but some private estimates are well below that number, with one as low as 117 mmt. The safrinha crop has yet to be planted, so it may be too early to make a judgement call just yet.

  • Ethanol demand remains strong, and production has been higher than the USDA’s estimated corn usage number for ethanol.

  • March soybean oil closed yesterday at the lowest level since June and is in negative territory again this morning. Meal is also trading lower and this is weighing on soybean futures.

  • Favorable crop conditions in Argentina, and an improving outlook for Brazil are both negative to prices and may be pressuring the market this morning. Over the next couple weeks, central Brazil’s forecast calls for more consistent rains.

  • One private estimate of the Brazilian soybean crop is at 153 mmt. This is well below both the USDA and CONAB, both of whom are projecting a 160 mmt plus crop.

  • The expectation for higher biofuel demand may provide support to soybean oil as time goes on. However, the increased crush may also lead to an overabundance of US meal, especially if Argentina has a good soybean crop as anticipated.

  • Yesterday, March Chicago wheat closed well above the 100 day moving average after a strong rally. However, most of those gains are being given up this morning with all three US wheat classes trading lower.

  • The US Dollar Index continues to fall and is approaching the 101 level at midday today. This should be supportive to wheat, but as long as Russian wheat remains cheap, US exports remain uncompetitive.

  • Currently, the spread between March Chicago and KC wheat is less than a dime in favor of the KC. With improved moisture and conditions in the US southern Plains, this spread may continue to weaken.  

  • According to Russia, their wheat harvest is nearly complete. So far, 93 mmt of wheat have been harvested versus a crop last year that totaled 104.2 mmt. Despite the lower crop this year, they are still the cheapest global source, with FOB values ranging between $240 to $243 per mt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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12-27 Opening Update: Grains Trade Lower Overnight Following Strong Start to Holiday Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’24 478.5 -1.75
JUL ’24 500 -1.5
DEC ’24 508.25 -1.25
Soybeans
JAN ’24 1307.5 -5.75
MAR ’24 1313.25 -5.75
NOV ’24 1259.5 -5.75
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’24 628.75 -7.5
MAY ’24 639.75 -6.5
JUL ’24 646.5 -6.5
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’24 636.75 -6
MAY ’24 639.5 -6.25
JUL ’24 643.75 -6.5
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’24 725 -4.25
JUL ’24 747.5 15
SEP ’24 755.75 15.25
S&P 500
MAR ’24 4822.5 -2.5
Crude Oil
FEB ’24 75.18 -0.39
Gold
FEB ’24 2079.6 9.8

  • Corn is currently trading slightly lower in a tight 1 3/4 cent range after Tuesday’s solid reopen to the shortened holiday week.

  • Yesterday’s weekly export inspections report showed 1.082 mmt (42.6 mb) of corn inspected for export.  Currently, total inspections are 26% ahead of last year at this time and on track to hit the USDA’s forecast.

  • South American weather continues to show improvement. Much needed rain is expected to favor the parched areas of northeastern Brazil. Argentina continues to see favorable weather, with current expectations for their corn crop weighing on US prices.

  • Managed funds were active buyers in yesterday’s trade, buying an estimated 4,000 contracts of corn. They are currently estimated to hold a short position totaling 156,000 contracts.

  • The soybean complex is trading lower this morning in a quiet 7-cent range. Both soybean meal and oil are also trading lower this morning.

  • Forecasts continue to show rain for the dry areas of Brazil which should help to stabilize crop conditions. The much-improved conditions in Argentina from last year continues to weigh on soybean meal, which has steadily come off its high from mid-November.

  • With the last large soybean sale to China reported on December 19, concerns are growing that they may have filled their needs for now and be done buying US beans.

  • Managed funds were active buyers in the soybean market yesterday, buying an estimated 6,000 contracts. This would bring their current long position to an estimated 29,000 contracts.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning in quiet trade. While most of Chicago and KC contracts have seen activity, only March and May Minneapolis have traded this morning. 

  • Yesterday, the wheat complex posted strong gains as tensions in the Black Sea region escalated once again with an attack by Ukraine on a Russian warship in a Crimean port. Lately, Ukraine war news has been mostly brushed off by the markets in general, but with the end of the year approaching, this event likely triggered short covering.

  • In general, world wheat demand has been increasing lately, but since Russia continues to be the cheapest origin, they have been the dominant source.

  • Yesterday, managed funds were active buyers of Chicago wheat, buying an estimated 10,000 contracts. They currently hold an estimated short position totaling 58,000 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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12-26 End of Day: Grains Higher to Start Shortened Holiday Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • Corn futures followed gains in wheat today as traders returned from the Christmas break. Support also likely came from news of the reopening of two US rail crossings into Mexico, a major buyer of US corn.

  • Soybeans joined corn and wheat futures trading higher today. Traders continue to weigh what damage may have already been done to Brazilian soybeans due to recent dryness with the likely coming benefit from forecast rains over the next two weeks.

  • Wheat futures posted strong gains today as the US dollar continued its recent trend lower, support may have also come from increased tensions in the Black Sea region.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, and Brazil 1 week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center., and NOAA, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Since the beginning of August, the corn market has traded sideways largely between 470 and 500. October’s brief breakout to 509 ½ and the subsequent failure to stay above the 50-day moving average indicates there is significant resistance in that price range. The failure of December’s USDA report to provide a bullish influence on the market puts the market at risk of drifting sideways to lower without a bullish catalyst. During last summer’s June rally, Grain Market Insider recommended making sales when Dec ’23 was around 624. For now, Grain Market Insider will continue to hold tight on any further sales recommendations for the next few weeks with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by then, Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Since late February ’22, Dec ’24 has been bound by 485 ¾ on the bottom and 602 on the top. After testing 491 to 547 last July, it has mostly traded between 500 and 525. During this time, Dec ’24 has held up better as bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop prices as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty remaining for the 2024 crop. Moving forward, the risk for 2024 prices is the same as for 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a sideways to lower trend without a bullish catalyst. Grain Market Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Grain Market Insider recommended buying Dec ‘23 560 and 610 call options ahead of the summer rally and having those in place helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700 or 800 that the call options would protect those sold bushels.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Strong money flow into the grain markets, and commodity markets in general, helped push corn futures higher on the session. March corn gained 7 ¼ cents on the day, led by buying in the wheat and soybean markets.

  • Wheat futures posted strong gains as tensions escalated in the Black Sea region with an attack on a Russian warship at its port in Crimea by the Ukraine military. Typically, Ukraine war news has been brushed off by the markets in general, but with the end of the year approaching, this event triggered short covering in the wheat markets.

  • Managed Money were strong sellers of corn positions in last week’s Commitment of Traders report. Funds added 29,000+ short positions back into the corn market. With the end of the year coming soon, position squaring of some of those short positions could help support corn prices this week.

  • The USDA released weekly export inspection on Tuesday morning. Last week, the U.S. inspected 1.082 MMT (42.6 MB) for corn. Total inspections are running 26% ahead of the previous year and in line with current USDA targets.

  • South American weather is turning more friendly for first crop Brazil corn and Argentina corn production. Argentina corn is returning from two years of drought-stressed crops. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange stated that only 1% of this year’s Argentina corn crop is rated in poor condition.

Above: After posting bearish reversals on December 6 and 8, the market slowly eroded and traded through 470 support. Without fresh bullish input, the market runs the risk testing major support near 460. If a bullish catalyst does enter the market, overhead resistance comes in between 490 and 497, and again near 510.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Front month soybeans continue to be rangebound, largely between 1290 and 1400. At some point, the front month will eventually break out of that range, and if it breaks out to the downside, then the first risk would be 1180. If the breakout occurs to the topside, then the first opportunity would be 1510. The biggest looming catalyst behind a potential downside breakout is the projected record global carryout of soybeans, while the biggest looming catalyst for a potential upside breakout is continued adverse South American weather. Given the uncertainty of which direction the market will go, Grain Market Insider recently recommended adding to sales as the current price level is still historically good. It’s been disappointing how the market has been unable to push higher despite the South American planting disruptions. Because of that, Grain Market Insider’s concern is that, if the weather pattern doesn’t remain adverse, the path of least resistance could be lower. Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities, as well as potential re-ownership strategies.

  • No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the inception of the Nov ’24 contract, it has traded at a discount to the 2023 crop from as much as 142 back in July, to as little as 17 ¾ in early October during harvest. While the spread difference between the two crops has seen a good amount of volatility, Nov ’24 has been largely rangebound between 1250 and 1320 since it rallied off its 1116 ¼ low last May. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be early winter at the earliest. Currently, Grain Market Insider’s focus is also on watching for any opportunities to recommend buying call options.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher after volatile trade due to thin holiday markets that saw prices on either side of unchanged. Support came from soybean meal, as well as higher crude oil.

  • Overall, Brazilian weather is improving with showers throughout central and northern Brazil and a wet forecast, but in the central soybean growing state of Mato Grosso, the drought hit hard and the Governor of Rondônia, which is directly North of Mato Grosso, decreed on Sunday a state of emergency due to “the worst drought the state has ever seen”. This will very likely impact production.

  • On the other hand, Argentina has been dealt a favorable hand in terms of weather, and 69% of the crop is planted with just 3% rated poor to very poor. Last season, the country only produced half of its usual production, and this year will likely be above average.

  • Export inspections were strong for soybeans today at 39.3 mb and were on the higher end of analyst expectations. Total inspections for 23/24 are now at 818 mb, which is down 18% from last year, but have been improving.

Above: After posting a high of 1398 ½ in November, soybeans found support around 1292. Overhead, nearby resistance remains near 1350 and again around 1400. If the market breaks support at 1292, it runs the risk of testing 1250.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat was the star of the grain complex today, with solid gains in all three classes and was likely a big reason why corn was higher. March Chicago wheat appears to have broken out of its bull pennant formation to the upside, and the next target would be the 200-day moving average at $6.60.

  • Support for wheat today came from a decline in the US dollar, as well as the re-opening of some major shipping lanes. The two rail lines into Mexico at Eagle Pass and El Paso were re-opened, and shipping issues in the Black Sea region may drive more business to the US.

  • Wheat export inspections were still on the soft side, but improved from recent numbers at 15.8 mb and were on the higher side of analyst expectations. Total wheat inspections for 23/24 are now at 343 mb, which is down 21% from the previous year.

  • Last Friday’s CFTC report saw non-commercials buying back another portion of their short position by 4,497 contracts, which reduced the net short position to 65,032 contracts. With the funds so heavily short, the recent rally could cause more short covering and potentially a squeeze.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Between late July and the end of November, front month Chicago wheat trended lower, driven mostly by weak US demand and lower world wheat prices. During that time, and as managed funds established most of their short position of nearly 120,000 contracts, the market became extremely oversold. Since then, as the market rallied to a high of 649 ½, China made several US SRW wheat purchases, and funds covered more than 23,000 short contracts. During that runup, Grain Market Insider recommended making an additional sale to take advantage of the elevated prices in case the rally was temporary since US wheat prices remain elevated relative to other world exporters, despite the increase in demand. If the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. From the end of July, the July ’24 contract has slowly stepped its way down to a low of 586 in sympathy with the front month contract where managed money established a large short position during that time. Since then, July ’24 rallied alongside the March ’24 contract, as the funds covered over 30k contracts of their nearly 130k short contract position. While bearish headwinds remain, the funds continue to carry a large short position and seasonals remain supportive for the addition of weather risk premium, which are two factors that could fuel further short covering and another leg up in prices. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Back in June, Grain Market Insider recommended two separate sales that averaged about 720 to take advantage of the brief upswing. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: After rallying to 649 ½, Chicago wheat became overbought and turned lower after the December 8 USDA report. Since then, the market has found nearby support near 600. Nearby resistance remains overhead near 650, with additional resistance between 660 and 665. If the market breaks nearby support, it may test the 50-day moving average, and then support near 556.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since late July old crop KC wheat has been in a downtrend that has largely been driven by managed fund selling on low world wheat prices and weak US export demand. As the selloff progressed, the market became oversold, and the funds established the largest short position in three years. Even though bullish headwinds remain, these two factors have fueled the recent short-covering rally, which could extend much further if a bullish catalyst enters the market. This would also line up with the historical tendency for price appreciation as the market builds risk premium going into wintertime. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter, as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices become over extended.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. At the end of August, the July ’24 contract broke out of roughly a one-year trading range and stepped down to a 609 ¼ low in late November, largely driven by managed fund selling in the front month on weak US export demand and lower world wheat prices. Since then, the funds covered part of their large short position which also rallied prices in the July ’24 contract. While bearish headwinds remain, managed funds continue to hold a sizable, short position, and price seasonals remain positive for adding weather risk premium. These are two factors that could fuel additional short covering and rally prices in the months ahead. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying Jul’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside following the range breakout. As the market recently got further extended into oversold territory and the July contract showed signs of support near 630, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Moving forward, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend exiting the last 25% on any further supportive market developments.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Since posting bearish reversals on December 6 and 8, the market has been consolidating while holding support around 625, with close in resistance just overhead at the 50-day moving average. If the market breaks lower, the next area of support may come in around 595 and 575. Resistance above the 50-day moving average remains around 675 – 680.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Following last July’s rally, the market has slowly stair-stepped lower, primarily due to low world wheat prices, weak US export demand, and managed fund selling. With the funds building a record large short position as the market sold off. Since weak US export demand remains the main impediment to higher prices, the market continues to be at risk of further downside erosion. The record large fund short position could fuel a rally back higher if a bullish catalyst enters the scene, and if that happens, it may signal that a near-term low is in place. Earlier this year, Grain Market Insider made a sales recommendation during the July rally near 820, and with that sale in place, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation this winter with an eye on considering additional sales around 725 – 775, and again north of 800. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. At the end of August, the Sept ’24 contract traded to a peak of 871 ¾ and has continued to slowly stair-step lower, largely driven by lower world wheat prices, weak US export demand, and managed fund selling, and as the selloff progressed, the funds built up a record large short position. While bearish headwinds remain, the significant oversold condition of the market and the large fund net short position are two factors that could fuel a short-covering rally in the months ahead. Price seasonals are also supportive as prices tend to build in some risk premium going into the winter months. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside following a 1-year range breakout in KC wheat. Though recently, as the KC market extended further into oversold territory and the July ‘24 KC wheat contract showed signs of support near 630, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. While in the same time frame, Grain Market Insider also recommended making an additional sale as the Sept ’24 Minneapolis contract broke long time 743 support. For now, moving forward, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend exiting the last 25% of the open puts on any further supportive market developments.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After making a new contract low on November 27, the March contract found buying interest from its oversold status and record fund short. Since then, the market posted a bearish reversal on December 6, showing significant resistance in the 750 area. If prices can break through upside resistance, they could run toward 790. If prices retreat, nearby support could be found around 718, with further support near the recent low of 697 ½.

Other Charts / Weather

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12-26 Midday: Wheat and Corn Higher in Post-Christmas Trade

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’24 477 4
JUL ’24 498.75 3.25
DEC ’24 507.5 3
Soybeans
JAN ’24 1298.25 -1.5
MAR ’24 1304.5 -1.75
NOV ’24 1253.25 -4.75
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’24 631.75 15.5
MAY ’24 641.5 14
JUL ’24 647.25 12.5
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’24 639.5 16.5
MAY ’24 642.75 15.5
JUL ’24 645.25 13.75
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’24 724.75 10.5
JUL ’24 743 10.5
SEP ’24 748.25 7.75
S&P 500
MAR ’24 4815.75 10.5
Crude Oil
FEB ’24 75.59 2.03
Gold
FEB ’24 2069 -0.1

  • Corn is trading slightly higher today in thin holiday trade that saw prices on either side of unchanged. The re-opening of the two rail lines into Mexico have been supportive.

  • Scattered showers are falling in central Brazil this morning, and heavier rains are forecast towards the end of the week with already drenched southern Brazil included.

  • With the railways into Mexico now opened, shipments that have been backed up will begin flowing into the country, but could create a temporary bottleneck.

  • Mexico has purchased the bulk of US corn this year, and sales and inspections for this crop year are up 36 and 27% each as a result.

  • Soybeans opened lower to start the week, with pressure from both soybean meal and oil, as well as rainfall in Brazil with an improved forecast.

  • With both soy products slipping in price recently, crush margins have fallen slightly. Margins are still firm and attractive to processors as they are above $2.50 per bushel.

  • While central Brazil looks to recover from drought early in the season, Argentina has benefitted from favorable conditions and now has 69% of their soy crop planted with 37% rated good to excellent and just 3% poor to very poor.

  • The USDA’s most recent estimate for Brazilian production was 161 mmt, but many private analysts have their estimates lower between 155 and 158 mmt. Estimates for Argentinian production are at 48 mmt per the USDA’s last report.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher to start the week, with March Chicago wheat appearing to break to the upside of its pennant formation with a possible target at the 200-day moving average at $6.60.

  • Support to the wheat complex is likely coming from the recent decline in the US dollar, which could have renewed buying interest from China and other countries.

  • The re-opening of the two railways into Mexico should be friendly for wheat, as well as corn as Mexico has been a steady buyer of all three classes of US wheat.

  • Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials buying back 4,497 contracts of wheat which reduced their net short position to 65,032 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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12-26 Opening Update: Grains Look to Open Slightly Lower Following Christmas Holiday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’24 473 0.5
JUL ’24 495.5 0.5
DEC ’24 504.5 0.75
Soybeans
JAN ’24 1299.75 2.5
MAR ’24 1306.25 4.5
NOV ’24 1258 5
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’24 616.25 3.75
MAY ’24 627.5 3.5
JUL ’24 634.75 3
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’24 623 -3.75
MAY ’24 627.25 -3
JUL ’24 631.5 -1.5
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’24 714.25 0
JUL ’24 732.5 -0.5
SEP ’24 740.5 -0.5
S&P 500
MAR ’24 4808.5 3.25
Crude Oil
FEB ’24 73.9 0.34
Gold
FEB ’24 2073.8 4.7

  • Early calls for corn futures look to open slightly lower this morning following a 10-cent loss in the March contract last week.

  • On Friday, US Customs re-opened both of the rail lines that had been closed down at El Paso and Eagle Pass, but that had little bullish effect on corn which only closed higher by half a cent.

  • Argentina is gearing up for a solid corn crop with excellent conditions early in the season. 59% of the crop is planted and all of it is rated good or better.

  • Friday’s CFTC data showed non-commercials increasing their net short position by 26,355 contracts leaving them net short 127,570 contracts.

  • Soybeans are called to open slightly higher at this point this morning but were dealt a loss of 16 cents last week in the January contract.

  • Scattered showers are falling in central Brazil this morning while good rains fell last week and the extended forecast is wetter as well.

  • Ag Rural has reported that 94% of the Brazilian soy crop has been planted, and the beans that are in pod fill will benefit from the current rainy forecast.

  • Friday’s CFTC data showed non-commercials as sellers, reducing their net long position to just 1,998 contracts.

  • Calls for the wheat open are unchanged to slightly lower following a loss of 13 cents last week for March Chicago wheat. Futures remain at the 100-day moving average and are in a bull pennant formation.

  • It has been three weeks since a flash sale was reported to China, and while traders remain hopeful, Russia continues to dominate global exports.

  • The re-opening of the two railways into Mexico should be friendly for wheat as well as corn as Mexico has been a steady buyer of all three classes of US wheat.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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12-22 End of Day: Markets Consolidate as Quiet Holiday Trade Dominates.

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed
Monday, December 25, in observance of Christmas

All prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • A lack of fresh news and consolidation ahead of the extended holiday weekend drove the corn market in choppy, two-sided trade and a tight 2 ½ cent range to close the day fractionally higher.

  • Expectations of beneficial rains in the parched areas of Brazil continue to keep a lid on the soybean market even as traders square positions ahead of the long weekend.

  • Soybean meal and oil traded in opposite directions through the day, but with 61% of the Board crush value, meal continues to be the dominant product of the two. Today’s higher meal prices carried over and supported soybeans to a higher close and Board crush, which gained 2 ½ cents in the March contracts.

  • Expectations of additional beneficial rain in the southern plains and much of the Midwest added overhead resistance to the wheat market which ended the day mixed, with KC and Minneapolis mostly lower, while Chicago settled mostly higher following two-sided trade.

  • To see the updated US 7-day precipitation forecast, 8 – 14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks, and Brazil’s 2-week precipitation forecast, courtesy of the National Weather Service, and NOAA, scroll down to other Charts/Weather Section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

Corn Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 corn. Since the beginning of August, the corn market has traded sideways largely between 470 and 500. October’s brief breakout to 509 ½ and the subsequent failure to stay above the 50-day moving average indicates there is significant resistance in that price range. The failure of December’s USDA report to provide a bullish influence on the market puts the market at risk of drifting sideways to lower without a bullish catalyst. During last summer’s June rally, Grain Market Insider recommended making sales when Dec ’23 was around 624. For now, Grain Market Insider will continue to hold tight on any further sales recommendations for the next few weeks with the objective of seeking out better pricing opportunities. If the market has not turned around by then, Grain Market Insider may sit tight on the next sales recommendations until spring.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 corn. Since late February ’22, Dec ’24 has been bound by 485 ¾ on the bottom and 602 on the top. After testing 491 to 547 last July, it has mostly traded between 500 and 525. During this time, Dec ’24 has held up better as bear spreading has allowed Dec ’24 to maintain more of its value versus old crop prices as traders attempt to price in a larger 2023 carryout with more uncertainty remaining for the 2024 crop. Moving forward, the risk for 2024 prices is the same as for 2023 prices, which is a continuation of a sideways to lower trend without a bullish catalyst. Grain Market Insider is watching for signs of a change in the current trend to look at recommending buying Dec ’24 call options. This past spring, Grain Market Insider recommended buying Dec ‘23 560 and 610 call options ahead of the summer rally and having those in place helped provide confidence to pull the trigger on recommending 2023 sales into that sharp rally, knowing that if corn kept rallying and went to 700 or 800 that the call options would protect those sold bushels.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 corn. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be late winter or early spring of 2024 before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • It was a very quiet day in the corn market as prices finished the week slightly higher. March futures had a 2 ½ cent trading range on the day and closed ½ cent higher. For the week, March corn still finished 10 cent lower and posted a contract low weekly close.

  • The corn market was lacking little fresh news as trade consolidated before the Christmas holiday break.

  • Going into 2024, the corn export program will be a key to prices. Total corn commitments are running at 52.8% of the total USDA export sales projections. This totals 1.109 billion bushels, which is up 1.2% ahead of the average pace for this point in the marketing year. The corn export window is looking to be more aggressive in the early part of 2024.

  • The closure of two major rail crossings into Mexico, caused by the migrant crises at the southern border, limited corn shipments into Mexico and pressured the corn market. This afternoon, the American Rail Association announced that the US-Mexico rail border was reopened.

  • Argentina weather has been favorable for planting this season’s corn crop. Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates that corn planting is nearly 59% complete and overall conditions are good/excellent. Despite weather concerns in Brazil, a return of strong Argentina corn production will limit the upside potential in the corn market.

Above: After posting bearish reversals on December 6 and 8, the market slowly eroded and traded through 470 support. Without fresh bullish input, the market runs the risk testing major support near 460. If a bullish catalyst does enter the market, overhead resistance comes in between 490 and 497, and again near 510.

Soybeans

Soybeans Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 soybeans. Front month soybeans continue to be rangebound, largely between 1290 and 1400. At some point, the front month will eventually break out of that range, and if it breaks out to the downside, then the first risk would be 1180. If the breakout occurs to the topside, then the first opportunity would be 1510. The biggest looming catalyst behind a potential downside breakout is the projected record global carryout of soybeans, while the biggest looming catalyst for a potential upside breakout is continued adverse South American weather. Given the uncertainty of which direction the market will go, Grain Market Insider recently recommended adding to sales as the current price level is still historically good. It’s been disappointing how the market has been unable to push higher despite the South American planting disruptions. Because of that, Grain Market Insider’s concern is that, if the weather pattern doesn’t remain adverse, the path of least resistance could be lower. Grain Market Insider will continue to look at additional sales opportunities, as well as potential re-ownership strategies.

  • No action is recommended for the 2024 crop. Since the inception of the Nov ’24 contract, it has traded at a discount to the 2023 crop from as much as 142 back in July, to as little as 17 ¾ in early October during harvest. While the spread difference between the two crops has seen a good amount of volatility, Nov ’24 has been largely rangebound between 1250 and 1320 since it rallied off its 1116 ¼ low last May. To date, Grain Market Insider has not recommended any sales for next year’s soybean crop. First sales targets will probably be early winter at the earliest. Currently, Grain Market Insider’s focus is also on watching for any opportunities to recommend buying call options.

  • No Action is currently recommended for 2025 Soybeans. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now, and it may be some time before conditions are conducive to consider making any recommendations. Be patient as we monitor the markets for signs of improvement.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher to close out the week but remain near the bottom of their trading range as wetter Brazilian weather pressures the soy complex. For the week, March soybeans lost 25 ¼ cents, March soybean meal lost $5.50, and March soybean oil lost 1.13 cents.

  • While last week featured at least one soybean flash sale each day of the week, there was only one flash sale reported this week of 132,000 mt on Tuesday which was to unknown destinations. There is still a window for US exports, but it will close soon as Brazil begins their soybean harvest within the next few months.

  • This week’s export sales report showed decent numbers for soybeans at 78 mb with 5 mb of that amount for delivery in the 24/25 marketing year. Shipments were down 17%, but China and unknown destinations were buyers of 54 mb, a large portion of total export sales.

  • Estimates for Brazilian production have fallen slightly, and private analysts are forecasting a range between 150 mmt and 160 mmt. The USDA still have their estimate at 161 mmt, but that may be revised lower in the next WASDE report. Argentina’s crop has been planted in good conditions and the planting progress is now 69% complete. Some of Brazil’s losses in production could be made up by Argentina.

Above: After posting a high of 1398 ½ in November, soybeans found support around 1292. Overhead, nearby resistance remains near 1350 and again around 1400. If the market breaks support at 1292, it runs the risk of testing 1250.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat had a mixed close today with small gains in Chicago but losses in KC and a relatively neutral close for MPLS. The KC futures in particular had heavier selling in the front months versus the deferred. This bear spreading may be a result of the southern Plains forecast that has more rain on the way this Saturday which should offer improved conditions to the HRW crop.

  • Offering support to the wheat complex is the fact that the US Dollar Index continues to fall. As of this writing it is well above the daily low but still trading below the 102 level. If it continues to retreat, it should make US grain exports more attractive to world importers, offering a boost to the market.

  • This morning, no resolution to the closed railway crossings between the US and Mexico (due to the migrant crisis) had been reached. As of this afternoon, it is being reported that border patrol will re-open the crossings today, a full five days after they were initially closed. According to the Union Pacific railway, up to $200 million per day of freight, including grain, was not able to be transported during the closure.

  • The damage from the recent heavy storm in Argentina that affected infrastructure and left many without power is still being assessed. However, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, the wheat crop was not materially damaged based on initial reports. They also did not make any adjustments to the wheat production estimate of 14.7 mmt, and harvest is said to be 65% complete versus 55% last week.

Chicago Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for 2023 Chicago wheat. Between late July and the end of November, front month Chicago wheat trended lower, driven mostly by weak US demand and lower world wheat prices. During that time, and as managed funds established most of their short position of nearly 120,000 contracts, the market became extremely oversold. Since then, as the market rallied to a high of 649 ½, China made several US SRW wheat purchases, and funds covered more than 23,000 short contracts. During that runup, Grain Market Insider recommended making an additional sale to take advantage of the elevated prices in case the rally was temporary since US wheat prices remain elevated relative to other world exporters, despite the increase in demand. If the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Chicago wheat. From the end of July, the July ’24 contract has slowly stepped its way down to a low of 586 in sympathy with the front month contract where managed money established a large short position during that time. Since then, July ’24 rallied alongside the March ’24 contract, as the funds covered over 30k contracts of their nearly 130k short contract position. While bearish headwinds remain, the funds continue to carry a large short position and seasonals remain supportive for the addition of weather risk premium, which are two factors that could fuel further short covering and another leg up in prices. At the end of August, Grain Market Insider recommended purchasing July 590 puts to prepare for further price erosion. Back in June, Grain Market Insider recommended two separate sales that averaged about 720 to take advantage of the brief upswing. If the market receives the needed stimulus to move prices back toward this summer’s highs, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend adding to current sales levels and possibly even purchasing call options to protect those sales. Otherwise, the current recommended put position will add a layer of protection if prices erode further, and Grain Market Insider will be prepared to recommend covering some of those puts to offset much of the original cost and move toward a net neutral cost for the remaining position.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 Chicago Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago wheat recommendations:

Above: After rallying to 649 ½, Chicago wheat became overbought and turned lower after the December 8 USDA report. Since then, the market has found nearby support near 600. Nearby resistance remains overhead near 650, with additional resistance between 660 and 665. If the market breaks nearby support, it may test the 50-day moving average, and then support near 556.

KC Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is recommended for 2023 KC wheat crop. Since late July old crop KC wheat has been in a downtrend that has largely been driven by managed fund selling on low world wheat prices and weak US export demand. As the selloff progressed, the market became oversold, and the funds established the largest short position in three years. Even though bullish headwinds remain, these two factors have fueled the recent short-covering rally, which could extend much further if a bullish catalyst enters the market. This would also line up with the historical tendency for price appreciation as the market builds risk premium going into wintertime. Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation going into this winter, as weather becomes a more prominent market mover and may consider suggesting additional sales if prices become over extended.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 KC wheat. At the end of August, the July ’24 contract broke out of roughly a one-year trading range and stepped down to a 609 ¼ low in late November, largely driven by managed fund selling in the front month on weak US export demand and lower world wheat prices. Since then, the funds covered part of their large short position which also rallied prices in the July ’24 contract. While bearish headwinds remain, managed funds continue to hold a sizable, short position, and price seasonals remain positive for adding weather risk premium. These are two factors that could fuel additional short covering and rally prices in the months ahead. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying Jul’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside following the range breakout. As the market recently got further extended into oversold territory and the July contract showed signs of support near 630, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. Moving forward, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend exiting the last 25% on any further supportive market developments.

  • No action is currently recommended for 2025 KC Wheat. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted next fall. It will probably be mid-winter before Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Above: Since posting bearish reversals on December 6 and 8, the market has been consolidating while holding support around 625, with close in resistance just overhead at the 50-day moving average. If the market breaks lower, the next area of support may come in around 595 and 575. Resistance above the 50-day moving average remains around 675 – 680.

Mpls Wheat Action Plan Summary

  • No new action is currently recommended for the 2023 New Crop. Following last July’s rally, the market has slowly stair-stepped lower, primarily due to low world wheat prices, weak US export demand, and managed fund selling. With the funds building a record large short position as the market sold off. Since weak US export demand remains the main impediment to higher prices, the market continues to be at risk of further downside erosion. The record large fund short position could fuel a rally back higher if a bullish catalyst enters the scene, and if that happens, it may signal that a near-term low is in place. Earlier this year, Grain Market Insider made a sales recommendation during the July rally near 820, and with that sale in place, Grain Market Insider’s strategy is to look for price appreciation this winter with an eye on considering additional sales around 725 – 775, and again north of 800. If at that point the market remains strong and continues to rally, Grain Market Insider will consider potential re-ownership strategies to protect current sales and add confidence to make additional sales at higher prices.

  • No new action is recommended for 2024 Minneapolis wheat. At the end of August, the Sept ’24 contract traded to a peak of 871 ¾ and has continued to slowly stair-step lower, largely driven by lower world wheat prices, weak US export demand, and managed fund selling, and as the selloff progressed, the funds built up a record large short position. While bearish headwinds remain, the significant oversold condition of the market and the large fund net short position are two factors that could fuel a short-covering rally in the months ahead. Price seasonals are also supportive as prices tend to build in some risk premium going into the winter months. Back in August, Grain Market Insider recommended buying July ’24 KC wheat 660 puts to protect the downside following a 1-year range breakout in KC wheat. Though recently, as the KC market extended further into oversold territory and the July ‘24 KC wheat contract showed signs of support near 630, Grain Market Insider recommended exiting 75% of the originally recommended position. While in the same time frame, Grain Market Insider also recommended making an additional sale as the Sept ’24 Minneapolis contract broke long time 743 support. For now, moving forward, Grain Market Insider is prepared to recommend exiting the last 25% of the open puts on any further supportive market developments.

  • No action is currently recommended for the 2025 Minneapolis wheat crop. Grain Market Insider isn’t considering any recommendations at this time for the 2025 crop that will be planted two springs from now. It will probably be mid-winter before Grain Market Insider starts considering the first sales targets.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Above: After making a new contract low on November 27, the March contract found buying interest from its oversold status and record fund short. Since then, the market posted a bearish reversal on December 6, showing significant resistance in the 750 area. If prices can break through upside resistance, they could run toward 790. If prices retreat, nearby support could be found around 718, with further support near the recent low of 697 ½.

Other Charts / Weather

US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Brazil 2-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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12-22 Midday: Markets Higher Overall in Quiet Holiday Trade; Favorable Forecasts Offer Resistance.

ByGrain Market Insider

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed
Monday, December 25, in observance of Christmas

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAR ’24 473.5 1
JUL ’24 495.5 0.5
DEC ’24 504.5 0.75
Soybeans
JAN ’24 1302.25 5
MAR ’24 1307.5 5.75
NOV ’24 1258.5 5.5
Chicago Wheat
MAR ’24 615 2.5
MAY ’24 626.75 2.75
JUL ’24 634.25 2.5
K.C. Wheat
MAR ’24 628 1.25
MAY ’24 630.75 0.5
JUL ’24 633.75 0.75
Mpls Wheat
MAR ’24 713.5 -0.75
JUL ’24 732.75 -0.25
SEP ’24 741 0
S&P 500
MAR ’24 4813.5 16.75
Crude Oil
FEB ’24 73.94 0.05
Gold
FEB ’24 2072.1 20.8

  • Two railway crossings in Texas are still being affected by the migrant crisis. This is limiting the flow of US grain into Mexico, and as of writing the issue has not been resolved. According to Union Pacific, there is up to $200 million of freight per day, including grain, that can’t get to its destination.

  • While the forecast shows conditions improving, the weather issues in Brazil so far may mean delays to safrinha corn planting down the road. Planting in a less optimal timeframe may lead to production losses.

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that 59% of Argentina’s corn crop is planted. Additionally, the improved weather conditions are reflected in the crop condition, with 90% rated good to excellent.  

  • March corn is in oversold territory according to daily stochastics and is very close to a buy crossover signal between the K & D lines on this technical indicator.

  • The January / March soybean spread has narrowed to a carry of less than a nickel after it was more than 20 cents just a few short weeks ago. Recent sales to China and unknown destinations may be offering some support, as is the fact that commercials are short nearby futures.

  • The forecast for the drier areas of Brazil looks like it will get wetter, and it is expected to remain that way into January. The next week or so may have less rain than initially forecasted, but temperatures will also not be as hot.

  • According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina’s soybean crop is 69% planted. Additionally, 97% of the crop is said to be in normal to good condition. 

  • Soybean meal is near or at oversold levels from a technical perspective. Much of the recent decline has to do with the anticipation of a good Argentina crop. But meal is trading higher this morning, which may be the start of a technical correction, and this is providing some support to soybean futures.

  • The US Dollar Index continues to fall, which should offer support to the wheat market. As of this writing, all three US classes are above water, but not by much, and may be seeing some upside resistance due to relatively poor export sales yesterday.

  • More rain is expected in the US southern plains beginning Saturday. The front is expected to move into the central Midwest by Sunday. The moisture should benefit both hard and soft red wheat areas, but the forecast turns drier early next week.

  • Recent heavy rains and snow in France have led to some of their wheat area not being planted. However, the market does not seem overly concerned, with Paris milling wheat futures having been in a lower trend since the first week of December.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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12-22 Opening Update: Grains Mixed on Lack of Fresh News

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’24 472.75 0.25
JUL ’24 494.75 -0.25
DEC ’24 503.5 -0.25

Soybeans

JAN ’24 1300 2.75
MAR ’24 1303.25 1.5
NOV ’24 1254.5 1.5

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’24 613 0.5
MAY ’24 624.75 0.75
JUL ’24 632 0.25

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’24 626.25 -0.5
MAY ’24 629.75 -0.5
JUL ’24 633 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’24 714.25 0
JUL ’24 733 -2.5
SEP ’24 740 -1

S&P 500

MAR ’24 4796 -0.75

Crude Oil

FEB ’24 74.3 0.41

Gold

FEB ’24 2072.3 21

  • Corn futures are mixed this morning with slight gains in the front month and small losses in the deferred months. Yesterday’s export sales were supportive.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report saw corn sales falling slightly from the previous week to 1,014k tons from 1,419k tons, but still a strong number. Shipments were 40 mb which was higher than a week ago.

  • The railroad closures on the southern border remain a big issue as Mexico has been the primary buyer for US corn, and it has become increasingly difficult to export.

  • Argentina is now 69% complete with their soybean planting for 23/24 from 60% last week and continue to plant in favorable conditions with good soil moisture.

  • Soybeans are trading slightly higher this morning but have posted losses for the last 3 consecutive days with nearly 38 cents lost in that time frame.

  • Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher this morning as well with help from higher palm and crude oil, but crush margins have tightened lately.

  • Scattered showers are falling over central Brazil this morning, and the forecast into January still looks favorable for their soy crop. Production losses are still likely due to the early heat and drought.

  • New projections from Rabobank concerning the Brazilian soybean crop now see 23/24 production at 158 mmt compared to the initial forecast of 163 mmt.

  • All three wheat classes are trading slightly higher this morning, and wheat has held strong at the 100-day moving average in general. Positive news could cause a breakout to the upside.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report showed very small amounts of wheat sold, especially compared to when China was making US purchases.

  • Argentina dealt with a storm last week that targeted main growing areas, but the wheat crop has reportedly not been damaged and production of 14.7 mmt is expected.

  • Wheat production in western Australia is expected to be cut by 40% compared to production the previous year. Unexpected frosts damaged the crop.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.