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7-17 End of Day: Grains End Mixed Following Weekly Export Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended Thursday’s trading session lower, snapping a three-day winning streak, as a disappointing export sales report weighed on the market.

  •  🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans were the only major grain to end in positive territory, posting gains at the close, supported by a favorable export sales report.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower across the board today, pressured by a strengthening U.S. dollar and ongoing global harvest activity.

  • To see updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Wheat section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures ended the three-session winning streak as the market posted marginal losses on Thursday. A disappointing export sales report and weakness in the wheat market pressured corn futures in the session.

  • The USDA released weekly corn export sales on Thursday morning. For the week ending July 10, U.S. exporters sold 97,600 Mt (3.8 mb) for the 2024-25 marketing year. This total was well below expectations and a marketing year low. New sales were lacking, but a large portion of sales to unknown destinations were switched to a known sale in the week. New sales for the 2025-26 marketing year were 565,900 MT (22.3 mb), which was within expectations.

  • Wheat futures pressured the corn market, as wheat prices traded to 2-month lows. A firming U.S. dollar and global harvest pressure limited the market. The technical picture of the wheat market looks weak, which could limit potential gains in the corn market.

  • Over the next 7 days, the forecast for the Corn Belt looks to remain warm and wet. Temperatures are expected to trend above normal, but it is predicted that most of the Corn Belt will see 140% of normal rainfall according to forecast maps.

Corn Futures Attempt Rebound with Bullish Reversal
Corn futures show signs of recovery mid-July, posting a bullish key reversal to start the week. An unfilled gap near 413 is the first upside target, followed by a gap at 430 if 420 is cleared. On the downside, support rests at this week’s low of 391.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day higher for the second consecutive day but may have hit some technical resistance at the 200-day moving average in the November contract at $10.30. Weather models have not turned dry for August, so funds may be taking profits on short positions. Both soybean meal and oil ended the day higher.

  • Today’s export sales report saw bean sales within trade expectations with an increase of 10.0 mb for 24/25 and an increase of 29.5 mb for 25/26. Primary destinations were to Taiwan, Germany, and Algeria. Last week’s export shipments of 10.2 mb were below the 15.9 mb needed each week.

  • U.S. soybean yields are reported steady with improving condition scores thanks to favorable weather so far in July. Production is estimated at 118 mmt on average, but a heatwave forecast at the end of the month could negatively impact the crop during prime growth period.

  • Indonesia’s biodiesel consumption has reached 48% of its target as of July 16, and the Indonesian government is reportedly running tests to increase the mandatory biodiesel mix to 50%. Indonesian palm oil exports for June rose by 30.5%.

Soybeans Break Below 200-day
Soybeans failed to break above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A close above that level would target the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. On the downside, futures recently slipped below the 200-day moving average, with next support at the April low near 980.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed with modest losses across the board, pressured by a recovery and a new near-term high for the U.S. Dollar Index. Additionally, Russia currently holds the most competitive wheat prices globally, and there is speculation that it may become more aggressive in targeting sales to the Asian market.

  • The USDA reported an increase of 18.2 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26. Shipments last week totaled 15.9 mb, which falls under the 16.7 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 850 mb. Total 25/26 export commitments are now at 303 mb, up 7% from last year.

  • As of July 15, drought readings increased for both U.S. winter and spring wheat areas. An estimated 36% of the spring wheat crop is experiencing drought, up 1% from last week. During the same period, winter wheat area drought conditions rose from 26% to 30%.

  • On a bullish note, the Rosario Grain Exchange has revised their estimate of Argentine wheat production, lowering it by 700,000 mt to 20 mmt. Elsewhere, Turkey’s wheat harvest is also expected to fall by 3 mmt to 18 mmt due to drought.

  • FranceAgriMer has said that French wheat stocks for the 25/26 season are expected to grow 66% year over year to 3.87 mmt. If realized, this would also be a 20-year high. Additionally, they are projecting that 25/26 soft wheat exports will total 14.32 mmt, compared with 10.36 mmt shipped during the 24/25 marketing year.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
Chicago wheat’s sharp mid-June rally proved short-lived, with futures retreating to the upper end of the 2025 range. Initial support lies at the 50-day moving average, with a break targeting the June low of 522.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 688 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Back Near Support
Strength in June pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness late in June sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Above Support
Spring wheat futures held above the upper end of their prior range for most of June, supported by a confluence of major moving averages. The June high near 665 is the next upside target. Key support lies at the 200-day moving average around 607, with a close below that level — and especially under the May low of 572.50 — likely opening the door to increased downside risk.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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7-17 Midday: Soybeans Find Support at Midday, Corn and Wheat Remain Weaker

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
SEP ’25 403.5 -1.75
DEC ’25 422.25 -1.75
DEC ’26 457 0.75
Soybeans
AUG ’25 1019.25 5.75
NOV ’25 1025.75 5.25
NOV ’26 1062.25 6.5
Chicago Wheat
SEP ’25 534.5 -6.75
DEC ’25 555 -6.75
JUL ’26 591.5 -7.25
K.C. Wheat
SEP ’25 519 -3.75
DEC ’25 541.75 -3.5
JUL ’26 586 -3.75
Mpls Wheat
SEP ’25 5.9575 -0.0375
DEC ’25 6.16 -0.04
SEP ’26 6.55 0
S&P 500
SEP ’25 6324.5 21.25
Crude Oil
SEP ’25 65.79 0.6
Gold
OCT ’25 3366.6 -20.3

  • Corn prices are weaker at midday, as US weather remains favorable for US crops in the short term. December corn futures were looking to add a fourth straight day of higher trading before today’s weakness, a feat which has not been done since the week of June 2nd.

  • Weekly corn export sales totaled 26 mb, which was below trade expectations. Year-to-date commitments now sit at 2.735 billion bushels, up 27% from last year.

  • President Trump announced that Coca-Cola has agreed to use cane sugar instead of corn syrup moving forward. This has raised some concerns about corn usage moving forward.

  • LSEG has raised Brazil’s corn production forecast to 131.2 mmt, up 1% from the group’s previous estimate.

  • Soybeans are finding support at midday on drier weather forecasts for the month of August. The high so far on November soybeans is right at the 50-day moving average of $10.2725.

  • Weekly export sales for soybeans were on par with trade guesses at 30 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 1.861 billion bushels, which is 12% ahead of last year.

  • The Rosario Grain Exchange has raised their soybean production estimate for Argentina by 1 mmt to 49.5 mmt.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower at midday on pressure from harvest and improvements to production estimates.

  • Weekly wheat export sales came in at 18 mb, which was in line with expectations. Year-to-date commitments sit at a 5-year high of 303 mb.

  • SovEcon bumped their Russian wheat estimate up to 83.6 mmt, 0.6 mmt higher from their previous forecast.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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7-17 Opening Update: Grains Trading Lower Following Yesterday’s Higher Close

ByRyan Mainville

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’25 404 -1.25
DEC ’25 422.5 -1.5
DEC ’26 456.25 0

Soybeans

AUG ’25 1012.75 -0.75
NOV ’25 1019.75 -0.75
NOV ’26 1054.75 -1

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’25 537.25 -4
DEC ’25 557.75 -4
JUL ’26 594.25 -4.5

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’25 519 -3.75
DEC ’25 541.25 -4
JUL ’26 585.75 -4

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’25 5.98 -0.015
DEC ’25 6.19 -0.01
SEP ’26 6.55 0

S&P 500

SEP ’25 6301.25 -2

Crude Oil

SEP ’25 65.37 0.18

Gold

OCT ’25 3360 -26.9

  • Corn is trading lower this morning after moving up to the 20-day moving average in overnight trade and then retreating. The $4.25 level may be temporary resistance.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 900k and 2,000k tons with an average guess of 1,383k tons. This would compare to 2,151k last week and 924k tons a year ago.

  • After an unusually warm start to July, more above-normal heat is forecast for the second half of the month, raising concerns about potential pollination issues.

  • Soybeans are trading slightly lower to start the day after yesterday’s sharp reversal higher which was caused by a drop in the US dollar and a flash sale that was speculated to be going to China. Soybean meal is lower while bean oil is higher.

  • President Trump announced a trade deal with Indonesia earlier this week, with early details indicating the framework includes $4.5 billion in annual U.S. agricultural product purchases.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 450k and 1,000k tons with an average guess of 733k tons. This would compare to 751k last week and 735k a year ago.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower to start the day as prices consolidate towards the bottom of their recent trading range. Support for Chicago September wheat futures is around the $5.35 mark.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 300k and 700k tons with an average guess of 475k tons. This would compare to 577k last week and 579k a year ago.

  • SovEcon reports Russia’s 2025 wheat harvest is off to a slow start, with early yields trailing those of 2024.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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7-16 End of Day: Corn and Soybeans Rebound on Fund Short-Covering and Dollar Weakness; Wheat Mixed

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures closed higher for the third straight session, supported by fund short covering, above-normal temperature forecasts, and outside market volatility.

  •  🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures surged Wednesday after three days of losses, as traders responded to oversold technicals and a weaker U.S. dollar. Soybean meal and oil also posted gains.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures ended mixed Wednesday: Chicago posted small gains, while Kansas City and Minneapolis saw slight losses. A sharp drop in the U.S. dollar offered some support.

  • To see update U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures closed higher for the third straight session, supported by fund short covering, above-normal temperature forecasts, and outside market volatility.

  • Managed funds continued to unwind large short positions, contributing to gains despite declining open interest.

  • Talk of President Trump removing Fed Chair Powell from his position had markets on edge during the session. The potential pressured the U.S. dollar lower for the first time in nine sessions, supporting grain markets. Comments by President Trump later in the day denying Chair Powell’s possible removal brought volatility to the markets.

  • Weekly ethanol production rose slightly to 1.087 million barrels/day, using 105.1 million bushels of corn — just below the pace needed to hit USDA’s annual target.

  • Hot weather is forecast into late July across parts of the Corn Belt, with much of the crop entering pollination and early grain fill, adding modest weather premium to prices.

Corn Futures Attempt Rebound with Bullish Reversal
Corn futures show signs of recovery mid-July, posting a bullish key reversal to start the week. An unfilled gap near 413 is the first upside target, followed by a gap at 430 if 420 is cleared. On the downside, support rests at this week’s low of 391.

From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean futures surged Wednesday after three days of losses, as traders responded to oversold technicals and a weaker U.S. dollar. Soybean meal and oil also posted gains.

  • This morning, private exporters reported sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 25/26 marketing year. Export sales have been on the slow side, but the reduction in planted acreage this year should provide support with reduced supply.

  • June NOPA crush totaled 185.71 mb, a record for the month and above expectations—down 3.7% from May, but up 5.8% year-over-year. The market remains cautious about excess soybean meal from increased crush demand for oil.

  • On Tuesday, President Trump announced a trade deal with Indonesia with early details indicating framework that includes $4.5 billion in annual U.S. agricultural product purchases.

Soybeans Break Below 200-day
Soybeans failed to break above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A close above that level would target the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. On the downside, futures recently slipped below the 200-day moving average, with next support at the April low near 980.

From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures ended mixed Wednesday: Chicago posted small gains, while Kansas City and Minneapolis saw slight losses. A sharp drop in the U.S. dollar — following speculation about Fed Chair Powell’s future — offered some support before President Trump denied any firing plans.

  • Midwest rains are expected over the next week, but drier conditions in the Southern Plains should allow the hard red winter (HRW) wheat harvest to pick up pace.

  • Algeria reportedly purchased 1 MMT of wheat at $256/MT CNF, $12 above their previous buy. Most of the wheat is expected to come from the Black Sea, with some potentially from the Baltic region.

  • SovEcon has increased their estimate of Russian wheat production by 0.6 mmt to 83.6 mmt. This comes just a day after IKAR decreased their estimate by 0.5 mmt to 84 mmt. This has both groups inching closer to the USDA’s forecast of 83.5 mmt. Additionally, SovEcon has said that Russia’s wheat harvest is going slowly, with them having collected 11 mmt through July 11; this is down 56% from the 24.8 mmt harvested at this time last year.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
Chicago wheat’s sharp mid-June rally proved short-lived, with futures retreating to the upper end of the 2025 range. Initial support lies at the 50-day moving average, with a break targeting the June low of 522.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 688 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Back Near Support
Strength in June pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness late in June sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Above Support
Spring wheat futures held above the upper end of their prior range for most of June, supported by a confluence of major moving averages. The June high near 665 is the next upside target. Key support lies at the 200-day moving average around 607, with a close below that level — and especially under the May low of 572.50 — likely opening the door to increased downside risk.

From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

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7-16 Midday: Markets Mixed at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
SEP ’25 406.75 5.5
DEC ’25 425.25 5.5
DEC ’26 457 2.25
Soybeans
AUG ’25 1011.5 16.5
NOV ’25 1018.5 16.75
NOV ’26 1052.75 12.5
Chicago Wheat
SEP ’25 541 3
DEC ’25 561.5 2.75
JUL ’26 597.5 1.25
K.C. Wheat
SEP ’25 523.25 -0.5
DEC ’25 545.75 -0.25
JUL ’26 590.75 0.25
Mpls Wheat
SEP ’25 6.0225 0.01
DEC ’25 6.22 0.0075
SEP ’26 6.52 0
S&P 500
SEP ’25 6264 -20
Crude Oil
SEP ’25 64.83 -0.54
Gold
OCT ’25 3407.3 42.7

  • Corn continues to push higher at midday for the third consecutive day, gaining strength as traders shift their focus away from Midwest weather concerns toward the potential for new demand driven by upcoming trade deals.

  • U.S. weather remains bearish for the next week, with rain expected across the central Corn Belt. However, temperatures are forecast to rise above normal in most crop areas — except for the far northern Plains — later in the week.

  • LSEG has lowered its corn production estimate for Ukraine by 1.8%, bringing the forecast down to 27.2 million tons.

  • Dr. Cordonnier raised his U.S. corn yield estimate by 2 BPA  to 182, surpassing the USDA’s current estimate of 181. He also increased his forecast for Brazil’s corn crop by 2 mt to 134 million, compared to the USDA’s projection of 132 million. Cordonnier noted that Mato Grosso is experiencing record yields.

  • Ethanol production rose slightly to 320 million gallons, up from 319 million the previous week, though still down 2% year over year. The production process used approximately 108.5 million bushels of corn.

  • Soybeans are reversing yesterday’s losses in midday trade, with the soy complex continuing to post gains. The market is finding support following a White House announcement that a trade agreement has been finalized with Indonesia, which includes a significant commitment to U.S. agricultural purchases — including soy products. At midday, soybeans and soybean meal are trading higher, while soybean oil is under slight pressure.

  • USDA confirms the sale of 120,000 tons of U.S. soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations in 2025/26.

  • Dr Cordonnier raised his U.S. soybean yield estimate to match USDA at 52.5 bpa.

  • The weather pattern across the core of the soybean belt is expected to remain active over the next week, with much-needed rainfall forecast for the dry areas of Indiana and Illinois.

  • Wheat markets are trading mixed at midday, continuing to struggle despite strength in the corn market.

  • Global wheat harvests are ongoing, adding to market supply and making it difficult for prices to extend gains during this period.

  • As of July 7th, 36% of France’s soft wheat crop has been harvested, with conditions steady at 68% rated good to excellent, according to FranceAgriMer.

  • A strong recovery in wheat production is expected across the EU in 2025, which will contribute to an increase in global supply.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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7-16 Opening Update: Grains Green Wednesday Morning

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’25 405.25 4
DEC ’25 424.25 4.5
DEC ’26 457.5 2.75

Soybeans

AUG ’25 1001 6
NOV ’25 1009.75 8
NOV ’26 1047 6.75

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’25 538 0
DEC ’25 559 0.25
JUL ’26 597.25 1

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’25 524.75 1
DEC ’25 546.75 0.75
JUL ’26 591.25 0.75

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’25 6.05 0.0375
DEC ’25 6.245 0.0325
SEP ’26 6.52 0

S&P 500

SEP ’25 6279.5 -4.5

Crude Oil

SEP ’25 64.89 -0.48

Gold

OCT ’25 3371.7 7.1

  • Corn is trading higher early Wednesday, extending Monday’s bullish reversal and attempting to hold above the $4 mark.

  • Traders expect last week’s ethanol production to average between 1.08 and 1.1 million barrels per day, according to Wednesday’s EIA report. The previous week averaged 1.085 million bpd, with production for the marketing year running 3.7% above last year.

  • After an unusually warm start to July, more above-normal heat is forecast for the second half of the month, raising concerns about potential pollination issues.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning as futures attempt to bounce off of the $10.00 support level that was tested and held to start the week. 

  • President Trump announced a trade deal with Indonesia on Tuesday, with early details indicating the framework includes $4.5 billion in annual U.S. agricultural product purchases.

  • Wednesday’s NOPA report showed June soybean crush at 185.7 million bushels — a record for the month, though down nearly 4% from May as expected. Soybean oil stocks fell to 1.366 billion pounds, the lowest June level in over 20 years, per Reuters.

  • All three wheat classes are holding onto gains to start Wednesday, following corn and soybean futures higher. 

  • SovEcon reports Russia’s 2025 wheat harvest is off to a slow start, with early yields trailing those of 2024.

  • USDA reported 63% of the U.S. winter wheat crop harvested as of July 13, just 1% behind the five-year average. Spring wheat conditions improved 4% to 54% good-to-excellent, likely due to recent rains in parts of Montana, North Dakota, and Minnesota.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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7-15 End of Day: Grains Mixed: Corn Finds Support, Soybeans Slide, Wheat Faces Supply Headwinds

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures posted modest gains Tuesday, but December failed to break above the $4.20 level or the 10-day moving average, leaving the market vulnerable to renewed selling.

  •  🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures ended lower Tuesday, with front-month contracts leading the decline. Crop conditions improved, with 70% of the crop rated good-to-excellent — up 4 points from last week and 2 points above last year.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed mixed Tuesday — Minneapolis and Kansas City posted slight gains while Chicago slipped — amid lingering bearish pressure from last week’s WASDE, which pegged 2025/26 U.S. ending stocks at a six-year high.

  • To see update U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • There is unlikely to be any further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. Any remaining old crop 2024 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Next week the 2024 crop will drop off the report.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures posted modest gains Tuesday, but December failed to break above the $4.20 level or the 10-day moving average, leaving the market vulnerable to renewed selling.

  • Crop conditions held steady at 74% good-to-excellent — matching expectations and marking the second-best rating in the past decade for this time of year (trailing only 2016 at 76% G/E).

  • The strong ratings improve the chances for a possible higher than trendline yield. In 2016, final corn yield was 3.9% higher than trend line yield after peaking at 4.6% over trend line on the September 2016 WASDE report. Participants in the corn market are likely pricing in a 3-4% possible over trend yield, which would significantly increase the carryout for the 2025-26 marketing year. Weather will be a big factor in determining the final yield.

  • The U.S. dollar has rallied nine straight sessions, raising concerns over export competitiveness.

  • Brazilian corn harvest pace continues to expand but is well behind historical pace. Ag analyst firm, AgRural estimates that Brazil second crop corn harvest is 40% complete as of last Thursday. This is 12% higher than last week, but well behind the 74% completed from last year in this time window.

Corn Futures Attempt Rebound with Bullish Reversal
Corn futures show signs of recovery mid-July, posting a bullish key reversal to start the week. An unfilled gap near 413 is the first upside target, followed by a gap at 430 if 420 is cleared. On the downside, support rests at this week’s low of 391.

Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      •  There is unlikely to be any further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. Any remaining old crop 2024 soybeans should be getting priced into market strength. Next week the 2024 crop will drop off the report.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower with the front months once again posting the brunt of the losses. November futures posted an inside day lower with the high at $10.10 and the low at $10.00. Crop progress results were bearish as good weather supports development. Soybean meal was lower while bean oil was higher.

  • NOPA’s June crush came in at 185.71 million bushels — above expectations and the highest June total on record. Though down 3.7% from May, it was up 5.8% year-over-year.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw soybean crop ratings improve 4 points from last week to 70% good to excellent. This was also 2 points higher than last year at this time. 47% of the crop is blooming and 15% is setting pods.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report saw soybean sales on the poor side at 147k tons which compared to 400k the previous week and 175k tons a year ago. Top buyers were Mexico, Egypt, and Japan.

Soybeans Break Below 200-day
Soybeans failed to break above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A close above that level would target the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. On the downside, futures recently slipped below the 200-day moving average, with next support at the April low near 980.

Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed mixed Tuesday — Minneapolis and Kansas City posted slight gains while Chicago slipped — amid lingering bearish pressure from last week’s WASDE, which pegged 2025/26 U.S. ending stocks at a six-year high.

  • Spring wheat conditions improved more than expected, with 54% rated good-to-excellent, up 4 points from last week. Winter wheat harvest reached 63% complete, slightly behind average.

  • CONAB has reported Brazilian wheat has been planted on 79.5% of the projected area as of July 5. Additionally, they are estimating that the crop will reach 7.81 mmt, down 4.6% from the June estimate. Planted area is expected to decline 16.5% to 2.55 million hectares, though productivity is anticipated to increased 18.7% to 3.06 tons per hectare.

  • IKAR has lowered their wheat production forecast for Russia by 0.5 mmt to 84 mmt and also reduced their export estimate by .05 mmt to 42 mmt. For reference, the USDA is using at 83.5 mmt production figure, and 46 mmt for exports.

  • On a bearish note, the French farm ministry has estimated their nation’s 2025 soft wheat production at 32.6 mmt. If accurate, this would be a 27% jump over last year’s harvest due to an estimated 19% increase in yields. However, this would be only 2.4% above average, as last year’s wheat crop struggled with excess rain.

  • Morocco is set to import its first U.S. wheat shipment this month (100,000 MT), with total purchases possibly reaching 600,000 MT for the season — roughly 6% of its grain imports.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • Upside target of 675 was adjusted to 681.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
Chicago wheat’s sharp mid-June rally proved short-lived, with futures retreating to the upper end of the 2025 range. Initial support lies at the 50-day moving average, with a break targeting the June low of 522.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 688 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • Upside target of 693 was adjusted lower to 688.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Back Near Support
Strength in June pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness late in June sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75.

Winter wheat condition percentage good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell the first portion of your 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop.

  • Plan A:

    • Make your first sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now one sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • A downside sales stop of 639 has been added to the Plan B strategy.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Above Support
Spring wheat futures held above the upper end of their prior range for most of June, supported by a confluence of major moving averages. The June high near 665 is the next upside target. Key support lies at the 200-day moving average around 607, with a close below that level — and especially under the May low of 572.50 — likely opening the door to increased downside risk.

Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

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7-15 Midday: Grains Reverse Higher at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
SEP ’25 403.75 3.75
DEC ’25 421.75 3.75
DEC ’26 456.25 2
Soybeans
AUG ’25 1000.75 -0.25
NOV ’25 1008.5 1.5
NOV ’26 1046 0.5
Chicago Wheat
SEP ’25 543.75 2.25
DEC ’25 564.25 2
JUL ’26 600.25 1.5
K.C. Wheat
SEP ’25 528.75 5.75
DEC ’25 550.5 5
JUL ’26 594.75 4
Mpls Wheat
SEP ’25 6.05 0.0125
DEC ’25 6.25 0.015
SEP ’26 6.58 0.05
S&P 500
SEP ’25 6305.75 -5.25
Crude Oil
SEP ’25 65.44 -0.37
Gold
OCT ’25 3379.8 -7.2

  • Corn futures are bouncing at midday, supported by private weather groups calling for drier forecasts through August.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed corn ratings unchanged from last week at 74% good-to-excellent, which is up from 68% during the same period last year.

  • Brazil’s corn harvest is advancing but sits at just 40% complete, well below last year’s pace of 70% at this time.

  • Soybeans are slightly higher at midday, supported by higher corn and wheat markets and expectations of higher NOPA crush numbers for June.

  • Monday’s Crop Progress report showed a 4% jump in ratings to 70% good-to-excellent, up from 68% during the same week last year.

  • June’s NOPA crush numbers will be released today and are expected to show an increase to 185.19 mb, which if realized would be up 5.5% from a year ago. Soybean oil stocks are seen at 1.37 billion pounds, which would be well below last year’s number of 1.622 billion pounds.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher at midday, supported by technical support levels after testing multi-month lows in Chicago wheat.

  • Spring wheat ratings improved to 54% good-to-excellent, up from 50% the week prior but down from 77% good-to-excellent last year. Winter wheat harvest advanced 10% from last week to 63% complete.

  • Russia’s IKAR has lowered their wheat production forecast for the country to 84 mmt, down from the groups previous estimate of 84.5 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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7-15 Opening Update: Grains Trading Lower After Favorable Crop Progress Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’25 397.75 -2.25
DEC ’25 415.25 -2.75
DEC ’26 451.75 -2.5

Soybeans

AUG ’25 999.25 -1.75
NOV ’25 1005.25 -1.75
NOV ’26 1043.5 -2

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’25 538 -3.5
DEC ’25 559.25 -3
JUL ’26 595.75 -3

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’25 520.5 -2.5
DEC ’25 542.75 -2.75
JUL ’26 587.5 -3.25

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’25 6.04 0.0025
DEC ’25 6.25 0.015
SEP ’26 6.53 0

S&P 500

SEP ’25 6338.25 27.25

Crude Oil

SEP ’25 65.66 -0.15

Gold

OCT ’25 3396.3 9.3

  • Corn is trading lower to start the day after yesterday’s bullish reversal in December futures. Despite good export demand and oversold technicals, traders are focusing on the good weather and strong crop conditions.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw corn ratings unchanged at 74% good to excellent. Historically, crop conditions above 70% in July point to final yields above trendline. 34% of the crop is silking and 7% is in dough stage.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report were good for corn at 1,287k tons which compared to 1,564k the previous week and 1,100k tons a year ago at this time. Top buyers were Mexico, Japan, and South Korea.

  • Soybeans are trading lower with both August and September futures below $10.00 and the November contract only 4 cents above that level. Yesterday’s lows have not been taken out. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower as well.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw soybean crop ratings improve 4 points from last week to 70% good to excellent. This was also 2 points higher than last year at this time. 47% of the crop is blooming and 15% is setting pods.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report saw soybean sales on the poor side at 147k tons which compared to 400k the previous week and 175k tons a year ago. Top buyers were Mexico, Egypt, and Japan.

  • All three wheat classes are lower to start the day as crop conditions for spring wheat improved and the winter wheat harvest continues. September Chicago wheat futures are currently trading at support levels.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress saw spring wheat good to excellent ratings improve by 4 points to 54%. This is still far behind last year’s 77% at this time. The winter wheat crop is now 63% harvested compared to 53% last week.

  • Export sales were within trade estimates yesterday at 440k tons which compared to 522k the previous week and 622k tons a year ago at this time. Top buyers were Mexico, the Philippines, and Republic of South Africa.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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7-14 End of Day: Corn Bucks Grain Trend, Closes Higher to Start Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: After setting new lows in Sunday night trade, corn futures staged a strong reversal Monday, closing above Friday’s high in an encouraging technical rebound.

  •  🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower Monday, led by front-month weakness amid bear spreading and pressure from a wet weather outlook.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower across all three classes Monday, pressured by last week’s higher-than-expected spring wheat production estimate, which offset reductions to winter wheat.

  • To see update U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2024 Crop: 

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Eight sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 494.

    • Changes:

      • There is unlikely to be any further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. Any remaining old crop 2024 corn should be getting priced into market strength. Next week the 2024 crop will drop off the report.

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • After setting new lows in Sunday night trade, corn futures staged a strong reversal Monday, closing above Friday’s high in an encouraging technical rebound.

  • Friday’s report pegged old crop corn carryout at 1.340 billion bushels — the lowest in four years if realized. That stands in sharp contrast to prices, which are among the lowest seen in the past five years.

  • USDA raised Brazil’s 2025 corn production estimate by 2 MMT to 132 MMT, aligning with Conab’s update the day prior. This bumped up global corn stocks (excluding China), though overall inventories remain near 12-year lows, keeping the global supply picture historically tight.

  • Over the weekend, the Trump administration announced a 30% tariff on both the EU and Mexico starting August 1. The news is particularly significant for corn, as Mexico is the top U.S. buyer. The move adds fresh uncertainty to a market already weighed down by strong crop prospects and multi-year low prices.

  • Short-term weather remains favorable as pollination advances, with weekly crop progress expected to show steady conditions and development tracking close to the five-year average.

Corn Futures Break to New Lows
Front-month corn futures struggled through June, breaking key support and leaving an unfilled gap near 430 after the roll to September — now the first upside target. On the downside, stronger support emerges at 394.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 2,602 contracts between July 1- July 8, bringing their total position to a net short 203,861 contracts.

Soybeans

2024 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Three sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1089.

    • Changes:

      •  There is unlikely to be any further guidance on the 2024 crop as focus will be fully shifting to the 2025 and 2026 crops. Any remaining old crop 2024 soybeans should be getting priced into market strength. Next week the 2024 crop will drop off the report.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower in bear spreading action with the bulk of losses in the front months. Overnight, November soybeans fell to $9.98-1/4 but recovered throughout the day. Prospects of continued wet weather have pressured the market. Soybean meal was lower but soybean oil higher to end the day.

  • Biofuel policy support continues to provide a bullish backdrop, with USDA projecting a 5% increase in 2025/26 soybean crush, driven by rising demand for renewable fuels. This is expected to support soybean oil prices, though meal values may remain under pressure due to rising supply.

  • Highlights from Friday’s WASDE report saw predictions for the 25/26 soybean crop decreased slightly from last month’s guess. Ending stocks for 24/25 were unchanged at 350 mb and ending stocks for 25/26 were called higher at 310 mb vs 295 mb last month. Yields were unchanged, new crop bean exports were lowered, but soybean crush was increased to 2.54 from 2.49

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 6,641 contracts which left them with a net short position of 6,216 contracts. They sold 1,670 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 37,741 contracts and bought 459 contracts of meal leaving them short 131,479 contracts.

Soybeans Break Below 200-day
Soybeans failed to break above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A close above that level would target the June 2023 gap between 1161 and 1177. On the downside, futures recently slipped below the 200-day moving average, with next support at the April low near 980.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 6,641 contracts between July 1 – July 8, bringing their total position to a net short 6,216 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed lower across all three classes Monday, pressured by last week’s higher-than-expected spring wheat production estimate, which offset reductions to winter wheat. The spring wheat yield forecast of 51.7 bpa would be the second highest on record if realized.

  • Weekly wheat inspections totaled 16.2 mb, bringing 2025/26 cumulative inspections to 83.9 mb, down 3% from last year and lagging the pace needed to reach USDA’s 850 mb export projection.

  • Russian export activity continues to rise, with IKAR reporting wheat values up $4 to $229/mt last week, and SovEcon estimating weekly exports at 160,000 mt, up 60,000 mt from the prior week. Meanwhile, former President Trump has threatened 100% tariffs on Russian goods if no peace deal is reached within 50 days.

  • Weather remains a concern globally, with persistent drought in key wheat areas of Australia, and parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba in Canada seeing limited moisture. Both regions face yield risks as their crops approach reproductive stages.

  • In the EU, grain production is forecast up 6.9% year over year, according to Copa-Cogeca, with total output seen at 275.2 mmt. While wheat production is expected to rise, durum wheat is projected to fall 32% from last year.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • Upside target of 675 was adjusted to 681.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
Chicago wheat’s sharp mid-June rally proved short-lived, with futures retreating to the upper end of the 2025 range. Initial support lies at the 50-day moving average, with a break targeting the June low of 522.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, July 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 7,477 contracts between July 1 – July 8, bringing their total position to a net short 55,594 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 688 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • Upside target of 693 was adjusted lower to 688.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Back Near Support
Strength in June pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness late in June sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, July 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 871 contracts between July 1– July 8, bringing their total position to a net short 43,319 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Sell the first portion of your 2026 Minneapolis wheat crop.

  • Plan A:

    • Make your first sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Now one sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • A downside sales stop of 639 has been added to the Plan B strategy.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Above Support
Spring wheat futures held above the upper end of their prior range for most of June, supported by a confluence of major moving averages. The June high near 665 is the next upside target. Key support lies at the 200-day moving average around 607, with a close below that level — and especially under the May low of 572.50 — likely opening the door to increased downside risk.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, July 8. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 3,426 contracts between July 1 – July 8, bringing their total position to a net long 2,287 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather