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7-23 Opening Update: Corn, Soybeans Rise; Wheat Softens

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’25 400.75 1.5
DEC ’25 419 1
DEC ’26 457.5 0.75

Soybeans

AUG ’25 1016.25 6
NOV ’25 1032 6.5
NOV ’26 1068.5 6.25

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’25 548.5 -1
DEC ’25 568.25 -1.25
JUL ’26 603 -1

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’25 532 -1.25
DEC ’25 553.5 -1.5
JUL ’26 596.25 -1.75

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’25 5.925 0.0075
DEC ’25 6.13 0.0125
SEP ’26 6.505 0

S&P 500

SEP ’25 6366.75 20

Crude Oil

SEP ’25 64.85 -0.46

Gold

OCT ’25 3462 -10.1

  • Dalian corn futures fell and U.S. rains are aiding crop prospects amid expectations for a strong U.S. and record Brazil crop.

  • Weaker U.S. corn export outlook could lift 25/26 carryout to 2,085M bu vs USDA’s 1,660M, despite higher feed and ethanol use estimates.

  • Delayed Brazil safrinha harvest and logistics issues are firming Brazilian corn basis.

  • Dalian soy complex futures rose, while North and East Corn Belt rains are expected to support U.S. soybean yields.

  • Crop optimism and uncertain U.S. soybean demand, with lower export estimates, could push 25/26 carryout to 510M bu vs USDA’s 310M.

  • Brazil basis strengthened on reports of increased Chinese buying and slower farmer selling.

  • Rising Russian wheat export prices on lower yield concerns and firm cash markets may boost U.S. and EU export demand.

  • Southern Hemisphere crop prospects are providing resistance to global wheat prices.

  • U.S. ND wheat tour pegs first-day yield at 50 bpa (vs 52 last year, 45 avg); U.S. carryout seen at 895M bu with higher exports offsetting lower feed use.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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7-22 End of Day: Grains End Mixed as Traders Digest Yesterday’s Crop Progress Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Pressure remains on the corn market, which ended the day with losses for the second consecutive session. The decline was driven by favorable weather forecasts and strong crop conditions across the U.S.

  •  🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended the day lower as traders digested yesterday’s USDA Crop Progress report and continued to monitor ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat was the only major grain to post gains on Tuesday, supported by Monday’s Crop Progress report and a weaker U.S. dollar.

  • To see the updated U.S weather forecast maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures fell for a second straight session, pressured by strong crop ratings and favorable weather forecasts, leading to moderate losses across the market. The lead month September contract closed back below the psychological 400 price level.

  • Weekly crop ratings for corn remain unchanged at 74% G/E. Ratings would have likely improved, but rating drops in Colorado and Pennsylvania limited any movement. Regardless, this is the best rated corn since 2016. The final yield in 2016 finished 3.9% above the trend line yield to start the marketing year.

  • Weather forecasts continue to moderate heading into August, adding pressure to the grain markets. Following a stretch of above-normal temperatures, early August outlooks are now calling for below-normal readings, which should reduce crop stress and support kernel fill.

  • South Korea’s Mill Feed Group is looking to purchase corns and current bids for export corn for fall delivery have Brazil and Argentina prices at a discount to the U.S.

  • Brazil corn harvest has been picking up speed, supported by improved weather. As of July 19, the second crop corn harvest was 55.5% complete, up nearly 14% over last week, but still well behind the 5-year average. Recently, wet weather and the logistics of handling a record corn crop have limited harvest progress..

Corn Futures Attempt Rebound with Bullish Reversal
Corn futures show signs of recovery mid-July, posting a bullish key reversal to start last week. An unfilled gap near 413 is the first upside target, followed by a gap at 430 if 420 is cleared. On the downside, support rests at last week’s low of 391.

Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower but came off their lows earlier in the day. The November contract took out yesterday’s low and is trading below the major moving averages. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw crop ratings fall slightly which should be supportive especially if weather gets hot and dry throughout August.

  • Soybean oil followed crude oil lower today, while soybean meal found support on reports that President Trump is nearing a trade agreement with the Philippines. The potential deal could boost export demand for both soybeans and soybean meal.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw crop ratings for soybeans falling by 2 points from last week to 68% good to excellent. This is on par with this time last year. 62% of the crop is blooming compared to the average of 63% and 26% is setting pods which compares to the average of 26% at this time of year.

  • In China, soybean imports from Brazil have reportedly risen by 9.2% from the previous year. This was driven by a strong Brazilian harvest along with the ongoing U.S. trade war. Last month, China imported 86.6% of their total imports from Brazil alone.

Soybeans Find Support Near $10
Soybeans failed to break above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. If soybeans can breach the 100-day moving average the next upside target would be the gap left over the 4th of July weekend near 1050. Support found last week near 1000 will be the first line of defense on a pullback with the April lows near 980 as stronger support.

Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat finished the session with gains across all classes, despite lower closes in corn and soybean futures. Support came from a weaker U.S. dollar, reports of slowed farmer selling globally, and increased buying interest from end users for Russian wheat. Additionally, a decline in U.S. spring wheat crop ratings contributed to the bullish sentiment.

  • Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report indicated that the U.S. winter wheat harvest is 73% complete, compared to 75% last year and a five-year average of 72%. Furthermore, the spring wheat crop condition fell 2% from last week to 52% good to excellent; the wheat crop is 87% headed which is in line with last year an 1% behind average.

  • Interfax has estimated Russian 25/26 grain exports will total between 53-55 mmt. Of that amount, wheat is expected to account for 43-44 mmt, which would be in line with last season. In addition, they left their grain harvest estimate unchanged at 135 mmt, with 88-90 mmt of that being wheat.

  • Iraq is reported to have harvested 5.119 mmt of wheat this season. With reserves of about 1.5 mmt from last year, the total is closer to 6.5 mmt. Despite ongoing drought conditions, this marks the third consecutive year the government has not needed to import wheat for its subsidized food program. New irrigation projects have helped boost production, and authorities are reportedly working to build additional silos to increase reserves.

  • According to CONAB, 91% of the projected wheat area has been planted in Brazil, which is in line with last year and the average. Region by region there is some variance, however, with 99% of Parana planted, but only 39% complete in Santa Catarina.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
Chicago wheat’s sharp mid-June rally proved short-lived, with futures retreating to the upper end of the 2025 range. Initial support lies at the 50-day moving average, with a break targeting the June low of 522.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 688 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 688 target has been lowered to 683.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Back Near Support
Strength in June pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness late in June sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75.

Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Above Support
Spring wheat futures held above the upper end of their prior range for most of June, supported by a confluence of major moving averages. The June high near 665 is the next upside target. Key support lies at the 200-day moving average around 607, with a close below that level — and especially under the May low of 572.50 — likely opening the door to increased downside risk.

Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

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7-22 Midday: Wheat Edges Higher at Midday; Corn and Soybeans Remain Lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
SEP ’25 401 -2.75
DEC ’25 419.75 -2.5
DEC ’26 457 -0.25
Soybeans
AUG ’25 1013.25 -1.75
NOV ’25 1028 2
NOV ’26 1064.5 3
Chicago Wheat
SEP ’25 549.5 7.25
DEC ’25 569.5 6.25
JUL ’26 603.5 4.25
K.C. Wheat
SEP ’25 534 8.25
DEC ’25 555.75 7.5
JUL ’26 598.5 5.25
Mpls Wheat
SEP ’25 5.925 0.06
DEC ’25 6.1325 0.0475
SEP ’26 6.48 0
S&P 500
SEP ’25 6336.75 -8
Crude Oil
SEP ’25 64.94 -1.01
Gold
OCT ’25 3468.8 35.1

  • Corn futures remain lower at midday, pressured by friendly weather forecasts and crop conditions sitting at 9-year highs.

  • Monday’s Crop Progress report showed corn ratings unchanged from last week at 74% good-to-excellent, and up from 67% last year.

  • AgRural has increased their corn production estimate in Brazil to 136.3 mmt, up from their previous estimate in June of 130.6 mmt. Harvest advanced to 55% complete, up from 40% last week.

  • Soybeans continue to see some weakness at midday as recent rainfall is keeping pressure on prices. January soybeans are trading just above the 100 and 200-day moving averages.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean conditions dropping 2 points from the week prior to 68% good-to-excellent. This is on par with ratings during the same week last year.

  • Limited fresh news on the soy side and more precipitation slated for this week across much of the Midwest may keep downside pressure on prices.

  • Wheat prices have reversed higher at midday, supported by a drop in crop ratings and increasing concerns over a damaged crop.

  • Spring wheat ratings dropped 2 points from last week to 52% good-to-excellent and still remains well below last years rating of 77%. Winter wheat harvest jumped 10% to 73% complete this week but remains slightly behind last year’s pace of 75% done at this time.

  • IKAR has lowered Russia’s wheat output slightly to 83.5 mmt citing poor yields in the southern region as a reason for the cut.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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7-22 Opening Update: Grains Lower Following Crop Progress

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’25 399.25 -4.5
DEC ’25 417.5 -4.75
DEC ’26 455 -2.25

Soybeans

AUG ’25 1008 -7
NOV ’25 1022.25 -3.75
NOV ’26 1061 -0.5

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’25 541.25 -1
DEC ’25 562 -1.25
JUL ’26 598.5 -0.75

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’25 526.75 1
DEC ’25 549 0.75
JUL ’26 593.5 0.25

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’25 5.8625 -0.0025
DEC ’25 6.09 0.005
SEP ’26 6.48 0

S&P 500

SEP ’25 6339.75 -5

Crude Oil

SEP ’25 65.38 -0.57

Gold

OCT ’25 3425.7 -8

  • Corn is trading lower again to start the day after the Crop Progress report showed corn ratings remaining impressive. December corn is trading back below all major moving averages.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress showed corn ratings unchanged at 74% good to excellent which compares to 67% at this time a year ago. 56% of the crop is silking and 14% is in dough stage.

  • There have been recent reductions in area on the drought monitor, but both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecast show below normal precipitation throughout the Southern half of the Corn Belt which will be accompanied with above normal temperatures.

  • Soybeans are lower this morning despite a decline in crop ratings, and the November contract is hovering just below all its major moving averages. Both soybean meal and oil are lower as well.

  • Crop ratings for soybeans fell by 2 points from last week to 68% good to excellent which is on par with this time last year. 62% of the crop is blooming and 26% is setting pods.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections for soybeans were decent for this time of year at 365k tons which compared to 151k last week and 338k a year ago. Top destinations were to Germany, Mexico, and Egypt.

  • Wheat is trading lower along with the rest of the grain complex, but its losses are more mild than those in corn and soybeans as crop conditions slipped again. The wheat quality tour is starting today and may reveal a damaged crop.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed a reduction in the good to excellent rating for spring wheat. Ratings fell by 2 points to 52% which compares to 77% last year at this time. 86% of the spring wheat crop is headed. The winter wheat harvest is now 73% complete which is on par with the average pace.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections were good for wheat at 732k tons which compared to 445k tons last week and 291k a year ago. Top destinations were to Nigeria, Mexico, and Indonesia.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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7-21 End of Day: Grain Markets Retreat as Forecasts Turn Wetter

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures started the week lower as weekend rains and a moderating forecast prompted the removal of some weather premium priced in last week.

  •  🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended the day lower on bear spreading, with front-month contracts leading losses. Weekend forecasts shifted wetter with slightly less heat, applying pressure across the grain complex.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed lower across all three U.S. classes, despite early strength. Losses followed weakness in corn, soybeans, and Paris (Matif) wheat. Weekend rains in the Northern Plains boosted spring wheat prospects, while uncertainty over potential August 1 tariffs contributed to long liquidation.

  • To see updated U.S. weather forecast maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures started the week lower as weekend rains and a moderating forecast prompted the removal of some weather premium priced in last week. A poor export inspection report also added pressure, raising concerns about weakening demand.

  • Weather forecasts eased to start the week, with expectations for less intense and shorter-duration heat. Improved rainfall projections for late July also weighed on futures, softening concerns about prolonged stress on the crop.

  • Weekly corn export inspections came in below expectations, with U.S. exporters shipping just 984,000 metric tons (38.7 million bushels). While total exports remain 29% above last year, the weak showing followed an already disappointing sales report, fueling worries about demand erosion amid Brazil’s record harvest.

  • Brazil analyst firm, Agrural raised their corn production output for the 2024-25 season to 136.3 MMT, up from 130.6 in their last projection. Favorable weather for the key second crop Brazil corn has supported this production raise.

  • The U.S. dollar broke lower from recent consolidation, potentially signaling a return to a weaker trend. A softer dollar would generally provide support for U.S. corn and grain exports by improving global competitiveness.

Corn Futures Attempt Rebound with Bullish Reversal
Corn futures show signs of recovery mid-July, posting a bullish key reversal to start last week. An unfilled gap near 413 is the first upside target, followed by a gap at 430 if 420 is cleared. On the downside, support rests at last week’s low of 391.

Above: Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 15. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 29,106 contracts between July 8 – July 15, bringing their total position to a net short 174,755 contracts.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower in bear spreading actions with the front months taking the brunt of losses. Forecasts over the weekend shifted to show more precipitation and a bit less heat from previous forecasts, which pressured the entire grain market today. Soybean meal was lower while soybean oil moved higher again.

  • Today’s export inspections report was on the soft side for soybeans with inspections totaling 13.5 million bushels for the week ending July 17. This was within trade expectations and was above last weeks. Total inspections for 24/25 are up 10% from last year.

  • In China, soybean imports from Brazil have reportedly risen by 9.2% from the previous year. This was driven by a strong Brazilian harvest along with the ongoing US trade war. Last month, China imported 86.6% of their total imports from Brazil alone.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of 26,062 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 32,278 contracts. They bought 5,480 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 43,221 contracts and sold 1,537 contracts of meal leaving them short 133,016 contracts.

Soybeans Find Support Near $10
Soybeans failed to break above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. If soybeans can breach the 100-day moving average the next upside target would be the gap left over the 4th of July weekend near 1050. Support found last week near 1000 will be the first line of defense on a pullback with the April lows near 980 as stronger support.

Above: Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 15. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 26,062 contracts between July 8 – July 15, bringing their total position to a net short 32,278 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed lower across all three U.S. classes, despite early strength. Losses followed weakness in corn, soybeans, and Paris (Matif) wheat. Weekend rains in the Northern Plains boosted spring wheat prospects, while uncertainty over potential August 1 tariffs likely contributed to long liquidation ahead of the U.S. Wheat Quality Council’s spring wheat tour.

  • Weekly wheat export inspections totaled 26.9 million bushels, bringing the 2025/26 total to 111 million bushels—14% ahead of last year. Inspections are currently running above the USDA’s pace for projected exports of 850 million bushels, which would be a 3% increase year over year.

  • Bangladesh signed a five-year trade agreement to purchase 700,000 metric tons of U.S. wheat annually—a bullish development, as the country traditionally relies on Black Sea suppliers and buys far less from the U.S.

  • The weather outlook for the month of August in South America calls for widespread warmth, which should alleviate freeze concerns. Additionally, dryness in Argentina should allow for the end of wheat planting to go smoothly.

  • Over the weekend the Canadian prairies saw scattered showers. Heavier totals were present in Saskatchewan and Alberta, with lighter amounts in Manitoba (where it has been drier). Additionally, more rain is expected through next week. In general, this moisture should benefit their spring wheat crop.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
Chicago wheat’s sharp mid-June rally proved short-lived, with futures retreating to the upper end of the 2025 range. Initial support lies at the 50-day moving average, with a break targeting the June low of 522.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590.

Above: Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, July15. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 4,893 contracts between July 8 – July 15, bringing their total position to a net short 60,487 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 688 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 688 target has been lowered to 683.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Back Near Support
Strength in June pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness late in June sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75.

Above: KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, July 15. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 4,683 contracts between July 8 – July 15, bringing their total position to a net short 48,002 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Above Support
Spring wheat futures held above the upper end of their prior range for most of June, supported by a confluence of major moving averages. The June high near 665 is the next upside target. Key support lies at the 200-day moving average around 607, with a close below that level — and especially under the May low of 572.50 — likely opening the door to increased downside risk.

Above: Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, July 15. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 3,284 contracts between July 8 – July 15, bringing their total position to a net short 997 contracts.

Other Charts / Weather

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7-21 Midday: Grains Mixed Ahead of USDA Crop Progress Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
SEP ’25 401.5 -7
DEC ’25 420.75 -7
DEC ’26 456 -4
Soybeans
AUG ’25 1013.5 -14.25
NOV ’25 1021.75 -14
NOV ’26 1058.75 -8.75
Chicago Wheat
SEP ’25 542.25 -4
DEC ’25 563.25 -3.75
JUL ’26 599.75 -3
K.C. Wheat
SEP ’25 524.75 -4.25
DEC ’25 547.5 -4
JUL ’26 592.25 -4.5
Mpls Wheat
SEP ’25 5.91 -0.045
DEC ’25 6.12 -0.045
SEP ’26 6.5575 0
S&P 500
SEP ’25 6368.75 34
Crude Oil
SEP ’25 65.79 -0.26
Gold
OCT ’25 3439.5 53.8

  • Corn prices remain under pressure at midday, as market participants await the USDA’s Crop Progress report, set to be released later this afternoon.

  • Weather remains a key focus for traders, with varying precipitation patterns across parts of the Corn Belt and the 15-day forecast indicating above-average temperatures for much of the region.

  • The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics in Brazil reports that the corn harvest in the state has surpassed 77%, advancing by 20 percentage points over the past week.

  • Corn export inspections fell below expectations last week, dropping to their lowest level since January.

  • Soybean markets show mixed trading at midday, influenced by a 15-day forecast predicting variable precipitation and above-average temperatures across key soybean-growing regions.

  • Soybeans and soybean meal are trading mixed, while soybean oil is posting losses.

  • Traders remain concerned about demand for new-crop soybean sales as the market enters a typically active period for booking export sales—particularly if China continues to stay on the sidelines.

  • China’s June soybean imports from Brazil were up 9% year-on-year.

  • President Trump continues to push for an in-person meeting with China’s leader this fall, while also facing ongoing trade tensions with Brazil, the EU, and several other countries ahead of the August 1st deadline.

  • The wheat complex turned lower at midday as traders await this afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report, which will provide updates on both winter and spring wheat conditions.

  • The market received a modest boost this morning following reports that Bangladesh has signed an agreement to purchase 700,000 tons of U.S. wheat annually, as trade negotiations with the country continue. Bangladesh has traditionally sourced much of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine.

  • Last week’s market rally was partly driven by a slow start to the Russian wheat harvest, with early yield reports coming in lower than those observed in 2024.

  • Scattered weekend rains fell across parts of Montana, North Dakota, and Minnesota, with additional precipitation expected this week—crucial as above-average heat is forecasted to follow.

  • Weekly wheat inspections surged well above expectations, reaching the highest level since 2008.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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7-21 Opening Update: Corn and Soybeans Lower, Wheat Higher to Start Week

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’25 406.5 -2
DEC ’25 425.25 -2.5
DEC ’26 458.75 -1.25

Soybeans

AUG ’25 1019.25 -8.5
NOV ’25 1028 -7.75
NOV ’26 1062 -5.5

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’25 547.75 1.5
DEC ’25 568.5 1.5
JUL ’26 604.75 2

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’25 530.25 1.25
DEC ’25 552.5 1
JUL ’26 597.75 1

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’25 5.9575 0.0025
DEC ’25 6.16 -0.005
SEP ’26 6.5575 0

S&P 500

SEP ’25 6348.5 13.75

Crude Oil

SEP ’25 66.02 -0.03

Gold

OCT ’25 3405 19.3

  • Corn is trading lower this morning following significant gains on Friday and in general last week. December corn gained back 15-1/2 cents on the week after making new contract lows.

  • There have been recent reductions in area on the drought monitor, but both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecast show below normal precipitation throughout the Southern half of the Corn Belt which will be accompanied with above normal temperatures.

  • Friday’s Commitment of Traders report saw funds buying back corn as of July 15. They bought back 29,106 contracts which reduced their net short position to 174,755 contracts. They likely bought back more contracts in the following days.

  • Soybeans are trading lower to start the day following big gains over the past three trading days and are trading right at resistance in the November contract where the major moving averages have congregated. Both soybean meal and oil are lower as well.

  • Some of the pressure this morning may be coming from a slight shift in weather models which show light rain falling on the Midwest’s soybean crop while the Delta stays dry. The forecast into August is hot with below average rain.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of 26,062 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 32,278 contracts. They bought 5,480 contracts of bean oil and sold 1,537 contracts of meal.

  • Wheat is mixed to start the week with Chicago and KC wheat trading higher while Minneapolis trades slightly lower. Tomorrow, the Wheat Quality Council’s Crop Tour will begin, and trade may be anticipating poor crop ratings.

  • The European Union has put sanctions on Russia and has specifically targeted the petroleum industry which could boost prices as Russia exports a lot of wheat to Europe.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds selling 4,893 contracts of Chicago wheat which increased their net short position to 60,487 contracts. They also sold 4,683 contracts of KC wheat which left them short 48,002 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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7-18 End of Day: Grains End Week Strong

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended the week on a strong note, with buyers returning amid short covering and technical buying. Support was triggered by forecasts calling for hotter weather ahead. For the week, December corn futures gained 15 ½ cents.

  •  🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans ended higher as forecasts turned hotter and drier for the 6- to 10-day period. A weaker U.S. dollar added support across the grain complex, but weather will remain the key driver if the pattern persists into August.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures led the grain complex higher Friday, posting double-digit gains for both Chicago and Kansas City contracts. The rally was likely technical, following support established earlier this week.

  • To see updated U.S. weather forecast maps, scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

    • Exit one-quarter of the December 420 puts if December closes at 411 or lower.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Buyers returned to the corn market to end the week. Additional short covering and technical buying was noticed in the grain markets as the prospect of a hotter weather forecast triggered some premium in the corn market. For the week, December corn futures gained 15 ½ cents.

  • The 7-day outlook for the Corn Belt remains warm and wet. Forecast maps show much of the region could receive up to 140% of normal rainfall, which may prove critical if drier weather materializes as projected heading into August.

  • Technical buying added support as corn futures pushed through key moving averages. However, the $4.30 level held as resistance, marking a critical threshold for the market heading into next week.

  • Brazil’s corn harvest is accelerating amid drier weather, boosting availability. With Brazilian farmers managing record-large soybean and corn crops, the increase in global supplies may limit upside potential for U.S. corn prices.

  • Argentina is in the final stages of this year’s corn harvest. As of Wednesday, corn harvest was 73% complete, down from last year’s 80% level due to wet weather. The Argentina corn crop is projected near 49 MMT.

Corn Futures Attempt Rebound with Bullish Reversal
Corn futures show signs of recovery mid-July, posting a bullish key reversal to start the week. An unfilled gap near 413 is the first upside target, followed by a gap at 430 if 420 is cleared. On the downside, support rests at this week’s low of 391.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended higher as forecasts turned hotter and drier for the 6- to 10-day period. A weaker U.S. dollar added support across the grain complex, but weather will remain the key driver if the pattern persists into August. Soybean meal finished higher, while bean oil slipped.

  • November soybean futures broke through all three major moving averages on Friday. Despite late-session weakness, the contract closed above the 50-day moving average at $10.34 ½ — the first such close since July 3, signaling near-term technical strength.

  • Soybeans drew support this week from surging soybean oil prices, which hit new highs Thursday. However, with no progress on a U.S.-China trade deal, futures remain rangebound. China typically ramps up U.S. purchases in August, but a potential Trump-Xi meeting still appears weeks away.

  • For the week, August soybeans gained 23-1/2 cents at $10.27-3/4 while November gained 28-1/2 cents to $10.35-3/4. August soybean meal gained $3.70 to finish at $274 and August soybean oil gained 2.07 cents to close the week at 55.82 cents.

Soybeans Find Support Near $10
Soybeans failed to break above key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. If soybeans can breach the 100-day moving average the next upside target would be the gap left over the 4th of July weekend near 1050. Support found this week near 1000 will be the first line of defense on a pullback with the April lows near 980 as stronger support.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures led the grain complex higher, posting double-digit gains for both Chicago and Kansas City contracts. Early strength was likely sparked by news of new EU sanctions against Russia. Although these measures target the energy sector, some support spilled over into the grain markets.

  • September Paris milling wheat futures broke through and closed above the 50-day moving average resistance today, offering a boost to the U.S. market.

  • According to Chinese customs data, their June wheat and wheat flour imports totaled just 350,000 mt, down 70.6% year over year for that month. The year-to-date figure at 1.96 mmt is down 78.9% year over year.

  • In an update from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentine wheat planting was reported at 92.8% complete, up from 91% last week. An estimated 6.7 million hectares will be planted in total, up from 6.3 million last year.

  • France’s wheat harvest has advanced to 71% complete as of July 14, according to FranceAgriMer. This is up sharply from the 36% that was collected as the week before, and only 12% at this time a year ago.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Returns to Recent Range
Chicago wheat’s sharp mid-June rally proved short-lived, with futures retreating to the upper end of the 2025 range. Initial support lies at the 50-day moving average, with a break targeting the June low of 522.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 could open the door for a retest of the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 688 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 and sell more cash.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • The 688 target has been lowered to 683.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

Kansas City Wheat Back Near Support
Strength in June pushed KC wheat futures to their highest level in months, testing the April highs near 580. Weakness late in June sent futures back below both the 100- and 200-day moving averages which should now act as resistance. First support should appear at the June low of 517.75.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Holds Above Support
Spring wheat futures held above the upper end of their prior range for most of June, supported by a confluence of major moving averages. The June high near 665 is the next upside target. Key support lies at the 200-day moving average around 607, with a close below that level — and especially under the May low of 572.50 — likely opening the door to increased downside risk.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: From ag-wx.com

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7-18 Midday: Grains Turn Mixed at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
SEP ’25 408 6
DEC ’25 427.75 6.75
DEC ’26 462 5.75
Soybeans
AUG ’25 1033 11.5
NOV ’25 1039.5 13
NOV ’26 1070 8.75
Chicago Wheat
SEP ’25 548 14.5
DEC ’25 567.5 13.25
JUL ’26 602.75 12
K.C. Wheat
SEP ’25 529.25 11.75
DEC ’25 552 12
JUL ’26 596 10.5
Mpls Wheat
SEP ’25 5.975 0.025
DEC ’25 6.1825 0.025
SEP ’26 6.6 0.07
S&P 500
SEP ’25 6332.5 -8
Crude Oil
SEP ’25 66.26 0.03
Gold
OCT ’25 3387.2 14.1

  • Corn markets trade mixed at midday, recovering from yesterday’s losses and gaining some momentum alongside strength in the soybean and wheat markets.

  • Weather remains generally favorable across key U.S. corn-producing regions, with rain in the forecast and warmer temperatures supporting crop development. While some areas continue to face drought, coverage has declined to just 9% of the U.S. corn crop.

  • “French corn conditions declined by 3% last week, while Argentina’s corn harvest is progressing into its final stages, now 79% complete.

  • U.S. corn is rated 74% good to excellent, and the crop remains on track to potentially achieve record yields this harvest.

  • Soybeans continue to trade higher at midday, supported by forecasts calling for hotter temperatures and limited rainfall in the week ahead. The entire soy complex is posting gains at midday.

  • The U.S. Secretary of Commerce suggested this week that trade talks with China are gradually progressing, fueling optimism for an in-person meeting between President Trump and President Xi later this summer or in early fall. This renewed trade optimism is adding support to the soybean rally.

  • The percentage of U.S. soybean acres under drought conditions fell by 2 points to 7%, though that’s still above the 5% reported at this time last year. However, with the hot and dry weather forecast, that number is expected to rise.

  • Wheat is trading mixed at midday, with momentum shifting amid global tensions and evolving weather conditions.

  • The percentage of U.S. winter wheat under drought conditions has risen by 5 points to 30%, compared to 24% at this time last year. Drought coverage for hard red spring wheat also increased, up 1 point to 36%.

  • Expanding harvests in the U.S., the Black Sea region, and the EU have weighed on global wheat prices, as new crop supplies continue to flow into the market. In France, the wheat harvest is now 71% complete.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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7-18 Opening Update: Grains Sharply Higher to Start the Day

ByRyan Mainville

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’25 408.25 6.25
DEC ’25 427.25 6.25
DEC ’26 460 3.75

Soybeans

AUG ’25 1033.5 12
NOV ’25 1039.25 12.75
NOV ’26 1070.75 9.5

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’25 542.5 9
DEC ’25 562.75 8.5
JUL ’26 599 8.25

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’25 528.5 11
DEC ’25 550.5 10.5
JUL ’26 595.5 10

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’25 5.98 0.03
DEC ’25 6.18 0.0225
SEP ’26 6.53 0

S&P 500

SEP ’25 6340.5 0

Crude Oil

SEP ’25 66.75 0.52

Gold

OCT ’25 3385.6 12.5

  • Corn is trading significantly higher this morning following yesterday’s lower close. December futures have broken through recent resistance and may be targeting the gap on the chart at $4.32-3/4. Funds may be covering short positions ahead of a potentially hot and dry August.

  • There have been recent reductions in area on the drought monitor, but both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecast show below normal precipitation throughout the Southern half of the Corn Belt which will be accompanied with above normal temperatures.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report saw corn sales falling to 664k tons from last week’s 2,151k tons. This compared to 924k tons a year ago, and top buyers were Japan, Mexico, and Colombia.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning and have also broken above their recent resistance levels and are only 5 cents away from filling the gap on the November chart at $10.44-1/4. The potentially hot and dry August is most supportive for bean prices.

  • Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher as well, but August soybean oil has rallied sharply on demand for biofuel and is now trading at the highest level since August 2023.

  • Yesterday’s export sales were good for soybeans at 802k tons which compared to 751k the previous week and 735k a year ago. Top buyers were Mexico, unknown, and Taiwan.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher taking back all of yesterday’s losses and then some on the updated hot/dry weather forecast. Yesterday, KC wheat contracts traded at new contract lows.

  • The European Union has put sanctions on Russia and has specifically targeted the petroleum industry which could boost prices as Russia exports a lot of wheat to Europe.

  • Yesterday’s export sales report saw wheat sales at 494k tons which compared to 577k last week and 579k a year ago at this time. Top buyers were Mexico, Venezuela, and South Africa.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.