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7-31 End of Day: Corn Gains on Export Strength; Wheat and Soybeans Under Pressure

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures closed mostly higher today, supported by a positive export report and signs of improved demand.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower again, as ongoing weather pressure and improving crop conditions weighed on the market.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat ends mixed pressured from a stronger U.S. Dollar and the market adjusts from oversold levels.

To see the updated U.S. 7-day precipitation forecast as well as the Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center and NOAA scroll down to the other Charts/Weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures finished mixed, with front-month contracts showing buying strength supported by positive export news. Gains remained modest as the market balances an improved new-crop demand forecast against the potential for a record corn harvest this fall.

  • Weekly corn export sales reflected a strong week of activity for new crop corn. For the week ending July 24, new crop corn sales were 1.892 MMT (74.5 mb), which was above market expectations as US corn is competitive versus global competition. Old crop sales slowed as the market year is winding down at 349,000 MT (13.4 mb) down 47% from last week.

  • USDA reported three flash sales of corn on Thursday morning. Unknown destinations purchased 136,000MT (5.3 mb), Colombia purchased 100,000 MT (3.9 mb), and South Korea purchased 140,000 MT (5.5 mb). All purchases were for the 2025-26 marketing year.

  • President Trump announced a 90-day negotiation period with Mexico regard trade and possible tariffs. The U.S. is currently holding the 25% trade tariff in place for the 90-day time window. Mexico is the largest importer on U.S. corn.

  • The U.S. Dollar Index is trading at its highest level since May, recovering from recent lows. A stronger dollar against foreign currencies may reduce or eliminate the competitive edge U.S. corn currently holds in the export market.

Corn Futures Back Near Recent Lows
With few weather issues so far this season, the typically volatile months of May through July have been unusually quiet for corn price action. Futures slipped last week and are now testing support near 391. A break below this level could shift focus to the August 2024 low near 360. On the upside, an unfilled gap at 413 is the first target, with resistance near 420 and a second gap at 430 if momentum builds.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. No change to the 1114 upside target despite recent market weakness; a hot, dry August may be needed to reach it. While uncommon, sizeable August rallies have occurred before.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting on first targets for 2026 to post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans closed lower for the fifth straight day, pressured by improving August crop forecasts. November soybeans hit their lowest close since early April. While export sales remained solid, they weren’t enough to support prices. Today also marked first notice day for August futures. Soybean meal gained ground, but soybean oil declined alongside crude oil.

  • Today the USDA reported an increase of 12.8 million bushels of soybean export sales for 24/25 and an increase of 15.8 mb for 25/26. This was within trade expectations, and top buyers were Egypt, Mexico, and the Netherlands. Last week’s export shipments of 18.4 mb were above the 17.7 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s export estimates.

  • Private analyst in Brazil are estimating continued growth in Brazil’s soybean production for 2025-26. The expectations are for the Brazil’s crop next year to reach nearly 120 million acres of production and production to grow to nearly 180 MMT.

  • With the 90-day U.S.-China tariff pause set to expire on August 12, officials are reportedly working to extend the agreement. However, progress on a broader trade deal remains elusive, and China’s limited cooperation casts doubt on their need for U.S. soybeans in the near term.

Soybeans Stuck in Sideways Range
Soybeans failed to clear key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A break above the 100-day moving average would open the door to filling the gap left over the 4th of July weekend near 1050. On the downside, initial support sits near 1000, with stronger support at the April lows near 980.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat closed lower in Chicago, while mixed in Kansas City and Minneapolis. Weighing on the market was a lower close for Matif wheat futures and the break in the US Dollar Index above its 100 day moving average. However, it appears wheat is trying to stabilize at these lower levels after having become technically oversold.   

  • The USDA reported an increase of 21.8 mb of wheat export sales for 25/26 and an increase of 1.4 mb for 26/27. Shipments last week totaled 10.9 mb, which falls under the 16.5 mb pace needed per week to reach their export goal of 850 mb. Total 25/26 export commitments have reached 351 mb, up 15% from last year.

  • Recent rains have brought improvements to drought conditions for both winter and spring wheat. As of July 29, according to the USDA an estimated 30% of US winter wheat areas are experiencing drought, down 1% from last week. Spring wheat acres in drought declined 5% from last week to 38%.

  • Ukraine’s economy ministry has reported that their nation has harvested 15.5 mmt of grain. Of that total, wheat accounts for 11.36 mmt; total grain harvest is expected to reach 53 mmt.

  • The Polish central statistics office is estimating their 2025 wheat harvest will total 12.8 mmt. If realized this would be a 3% increase year over year. Total grain production is anticipated at 25.4 mmt, which would be in line with last year’s figure.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. No active sales targets as still within the harvest window for SRW.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy July ‘26 550 Chicago wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 SRW crop for approximately 29 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD). – Hit 7/29.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Holds Range; Watching 558 Resistance and 522.25 Support
Chicago wheat’s sharp rally in mid-June was short-lived, with futures pulling back toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support is found at the 50-day moving average; a break below that level could open the door to a retest of the June low at 522.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would be constructive and could set up a move back toward the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None. With HRW harvest nearly complete, the window is opening for the next upside sales targets to post.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy July ‘26 540 KC wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 HRW crop for approximately 26 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 683 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD). – Hit 7/29.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Heads up that the July ‘26 contract is nearing the 584 Plan B stop, which if hit, would prompt buying July ‘26 put options.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Pulls Back Below Key Averages, Support at June Lows
KC wheat futures saw a strong rally in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580. However, late-month weakness pulled prices back below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which now serve as key resistance levels. On the downside, initial support is seen at the June low of 517.75, with secondary support near the May low around 500.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • CONTINUED OPPORTUNITY – Buy July ‘26 540 KC wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 HRS crop for approximately 26 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).– Hit 7/29.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Futures Test Key Support After July Slide
Spring wheat futures have come under pressure in July, weighed down by improving crop conditions and generally favorable weather across key growing areas. Technically, a cluster of major moving averages just above the 600 mark presents the first layer of upside resistance, with a chart gap near 650 serving as a secondary target if momentum builds. On the downside, the May lows near 580 should provide firm support in the event of further weakness.

Other Charts / Weather

Above: US 7-day precipitation forecast courtesy of NOAA, Weather Prediction Center.

Above: Brazil and Argentina one-week forecast total precipitation courtesy of the National Weather Service, Climate Prediction Center.

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7-31 Midday: Corn and Wheat Mixed; Soybeans Lower at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
SEP ’25 393.25 1.5
DEC ’25 413 0.75
DEC ’26 449 -2.5
Soybeans
AUG ’25 965 -2.75
NOV ’25 991.25 -4.5
NOV ’26 1042 -6
Chicago Wheat
SEP ’25 522.25 -1.5
DEC ’25 541.75 -2.5
JUL ’26 579.25 -3
K.C. Wheat
SEP ’25 525 3
DEC ’25 544 1.75
JUL ’26 584.75 -0.25
Mpls Wheat
SEP ’25 5.76 -0.0125
DEC ’25 5.985 -0.015
SEP ’26 6.5 0
S&P 500
SEP ’25 6409 12.75
Crude Oil
SEP ’25 68.76 -1.24
Gold
OCT ’25 3324 -1.3

  • Corn prices are mixed at midday with September and December futures slightly higher. Lack of weather threats and increasing global yields continue to keep upside potential limited.

  • Weekly corn export sales came in at 88 mb, which were towards the upper end of trade estimates. Year-to-date commitments now total 2.774 billion bushels, which is up from 2.173 billion bushels last year.

  • Datagro has raised their corn production forecast in Brazil to 140.9 mmt. This is well above the USDA’s estimate of 132 mmt.

  • Soybeans remain pressured at midday as bearish weather continues to put a negative tone on prices with larger yields looming.

  • Weekly soybean export sales totaled 29 mb, which were on the high end of trade expectations. Year-to-date commitments now total 1.878 billion bushels, up from 1.668 billion bushels through the same week last year.

  • Datagro raised their soybean production estimate in Brazil to 182.9 mmt, which if realized would be 9.4 mmt more than the previous growing season.

  • The wheat market is mostly lower at midday, pressured by an increasing US dollar and improved global production estimates.

  • Weekly wheat export sales were on par with trade expectations at 23 mb. Year-to-date commitments sit at 351 mb, which is up from 305 mb last year.

  • Sovecon raised their Russian wheat output estimate to 83.6 mmt, up from the groups previous estimate of 82.9 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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7-31 Opening Update: Grains Mixed to Start Day

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn
SEP ’25 391 -0.75
DEC ’25 411.5 -0.75
DEC ’26 450.75 -0.75
Soybeans
AUG ’25 969.75 2
NOV ’25 995 -0.75
NOV ’26 1049.5 1.5
Chicago Wheat
SEP ’25 524.25 0.5
DEC ’25 545 0.75
JUL ’26 583.25 1
K.C. Wheat
SEP ’25 525.75 3.75
DEC ’25 545.75 3.5
JUL ’26 588 3
Mpls Wheat
SEP ’25 5.7675 -0.005
DEC ’25 6.0025 0.0025
SEP ’26 6.5 0
S&P 500
SEP ’25 6454 57.75
Crude Oil
SEP ’25 69.45 -0.55
Gold
OCT ’25 3327.3 2

  • Corn futures are trading slightly lower this morning with the December contract just 4 cents off contract lows. While exports have been solid, trade is focused on potentially strong yields.

  • US ethanol stocks rose by 1.1% to 24.716m bbl which was above analyst expectations. Plant production was seen at 1.096m b/d which was above the trade guess.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 1,000k and 1,900k tons with an average guess of 1,517k tons. This would compare to 1,377k last week and 879k a year ago.

  • Soybeans are trading lower again this morning and are on track for a fifth consecutively lower close. Today is first notice day for August soybean futures. Both soybean meal and oil are lower as well.

  • Soybeans have closed lower in six of the last seven sessions, as traders grow increasingly concerned that the upcoming August WASDE report could show higher-than-expected yields. A larger crop, combined with weak export demand, raises the risk of a heavier carryout.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 250k and 900k tons with an average guess of 517k tons. This would compare to 400k last week and 884k a year ago.

  • Wheat futures are mixed to start the day with all three classes near unchanged. Funds have aggressively sold wheat this week as they look for larger Russian production and slow export sales.

  • Bangladesh will reportedly purchase 220,000 tons of US wheat to cool tariff tensions. Steep tariffs were imposed by President Trump, and the country looks to see these lowered.

  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 300k and 700k tons with an average guess of 525k tons. This would compare to 712k last week and 287k a year ago at this time.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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7-30 End of Day: Favorable Weather Caps Rallies; Trade Tensions Return to Focus

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended slightly higher, breaking a three-day slide. The widening spread between September and December contracts led to profit-taking on that spread, offering support to the front end of the market.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybean futures closed sharply lower, marking the fourth straight losing session. November contracts fell below $10.00 for the first time since early April, turning that level into potential resistance.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures closed mixed, with losses in Chicago and Minneapolis contracts, while Kansas City posted slight gains. Continued strength in the U.S. Dollar is weighing on the wheat complex.

  • To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • None.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None. The target remains 483 to make the next sale.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • The corn market broke a three-day lower price streak as the market pulled out minimal gains on the session. The spread between September and December had grown wide, and the market saw some profit taking on that spread, which supported the front end of the corn market.

  • Demand for new-crop U.S. corn has improved in recent weeks. Rising Brazilian corn prices — despite a record harvest — have made U.S. corn more competitive on the export market. Thursday’s export sales report is expected to reflect strong new-crop activity.

  • Analysts are increasingly projecting a jump in U.S. corn yields in the August WASDE report, with early estimates averaging near 185 bu/acre. A yield at that level could add 350–400 million bushels to the balance sheet, pressuring prices further if demand doesn’t keep pace.

  • Weather forecasts stay non-threatening into the first half of August. The combination of cooler than normal temperature and adequate moisture will help support the development of the crop into the finishing stages.

  • Weekly ethanol production rose to 1.059 million barrels per day — higher than the prior week, but slightly below year-ago levels. About 105.9 million bushels of corn were used for ethanol, still running behind the pace needed to meet USDA projections for the marketing year.

Corn Futures Back Near Recent Lows
With few weather issues so far this season, the typically volatile months of May through July have been unusually quiet for corn price action. Futures slipped last week and are now testing support near 391. A break below this level could shift focus to the August 2024 low near 360. On the upside, an unfilled gap at 413 is the first target, with resistance near 420 and a second gap at 430 if momentum builds.

From Barchart – World Corn Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine non-GMO (yellow)

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. No change to the 1114 upside target despite recent market weakness; a hot, dry August may be needed to reach it. While uncommon, sizeable August rallies have occurred before.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting on first targets for 2026 to post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybean futures closed sharply lower, marking the fourth straight losing session. November contracts fell below $10.00 for the first time since early April, turning that level into potential resistance. Improved weather forecasts and continued demand concerns remain key bearish drivers.

  • Both soybean meal and bean oil ended lower, but soybean meal continues to lag due to a global surplus. China, in particular, has excess meal supplies for feed use, raising concerns about export demand for U.S. soybeans this fall.

  • With the 90-day U.S.-China tariff pause set to expire on August 12, officials are reportedly working to extend the agreement. However, progress on a broader trade deal remains elusive, and China’s limited cooperation casts doubt on their need for U.S. soybeans in the near term.

  • After factoring in import taxes, soybeans shipped from the U.S. Gulf are currently about $30/ton more expensive than Brazilian offerings. As a result, China has sourced nearly all of its soybean imports this year from Brazil and Argentina.

Soybeans Stuck in Sideways Range
Soybeans failed to clear key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A break above the 100-day moving average would open the door to filling the gap left over the 4th of July weekend near 1050. On the downside, initial support sits near 1000, with stronger support at the April lows near 980.

From Barchart – World Soybean Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Brazil (Blue), U.S. NOLA (White), Argentina (Red)

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures closed mixed, with losses in Chicago and Minneapolis contracts, while Kansas City posted slight gains. Continued strength in the U.S. Dollar is weighing on the wheat complex. However, with all three classes near oversold technical levels, the market may be attempting to establish a bottom.

  • SovEcon increased its Russian wheat production forecast by 0.6 mmt to 83.6 mmt — just above USDA’s 83.5 mmt estimate. Russian wheat export projections were also lifted by 0.4 mmt to 43.3 mmt, though that remains below USDA’s 46 mmt outlook.

  • According to the Ukrainian agriculture ministry, their nation has exported 1.3 mmt of grain since July 1, when the season began. This represents a 62% decrease from the 3.43 mmt shipped during the same timeframe last year. Of that total, wheat accounted for 487,000 mt which is down 66% year on year.

  • LSEG has kept their 25/26 wheat production estimate for Ukraine unchanged at 20.7 mmt. Average temperatures and drier weather are expected to prevail for the next couple weeks, which should aid harvest. In related news a locust invasion is threatening crops in southern Ukraine. The extent of the damage is not known at this time but is believed to be mostly affecting their sunflower crop.

  • The International Grains Council has reported the Russian wheat harvest is 37% done, but production is running about 22% below last year so far. However, harvest has been mostly in southern regions so far and yields are expected to be better in the northern areas.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. No active sales targets as still within the harvest window for SRW.

2026 Crop:

  • NEW ALERT – Buy July ‘26 550 Chicago wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 SRW crop for approximately 29 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.

  • Yesterday’s close below 588 support triggered this recommendation, as Grain Market Insider has been watching that level since early June as a Plan B signal to expand downside coverage on next year’s crop. This break of support puts 541 and 506 as the next potential downside risks. Using put options extends protection without committing additional physical bushels, while keeping the upside open should a bullish catalyst reverse wheat’s current trend.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD). – Hit 7/29.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Holds Range; Watching 558 Resistance and 522.25 Support
Chicago wheat’s sharp rally in mid-June was short-lived, with futures pulling back toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support is found at the 50-day moving average; a break below that level could open the door to a retest of the June low at 522.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would be constructive and could set up a move back toward the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None. With HRW harvest nearly complete, the window is opening for the next upside sales targets to post.

2026 Crop:

  • NEW ALERT – Buy July ‘26 540 KC wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 HRW crop for approximately 26 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.

  • Yesterday’s close below 584 support triggered this recommendation, as Grain Market Insider has been watching that level since early June as a Plan B signal to expand downside coverage on next year’s crop. This break of support puts 545 and 501 as the next potential downside risks. Using put options extends protection without committing additional physical bushels, while keeping the upside open should a bullish catalyst reverse wheat’s current trend.

  • Plan A:

    • Target 683 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD). – Hit 7/29.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Heads up that the July ‘26 contract is nearing the 584 Plan B stop, which if hit, would prompt buying July ‘26 put options.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Pulls Back Below Key Averages, Support at June Lows
KC wheat futures saw a strong rally in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580. However, late-month weakness pulled prices back below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which now serve as key resistance levels. On the downside, initial support is seen at the June low of 517.75, with secondary support near the May low around 500.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • NEW ALERT – Buy July ‘26 540 KC wheat puts on a portion of your 2026 HRS crop for approximately 26 cents in premium, plus commission and fees.

  • Yesterday’s close below 584 support vs the July ‘26 KC contract triggered this recommendation, as Grain Market Insider has been watching that level since early June as a Plan B signal to expand downside coverage on next year’s crop. This break of support puts 545 and 501 as the next potential downside risks vs the July ‘26 KC futures contract. Using put options extends protection without committing additional physical bushels, while keeping the upside open should a bullish catalyst reverse wheat’s current trend. KC options are recommended as a cross-hedge given the high correlation between KC and Minneapolis wheat prices, and the higher liquidity in the KC options.

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).– Hit 7/29.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Futures Test Key Support After July Slide
Spring wheat futures have come under pressure in July, weighed down by improving crop conditions and generally favorable weather across key growing areas. Technically, a cluster of major moving averages just above the 600 mark presents the first layer of upside resistance, with a chart gap near 650 serving as a secondary target if momentum builds. On the downside, the May lows near 580 should provide firm support in the event of further weakness.

From Barchart – World Wheat Export Prices in U.S. Dollars per metric ton. Russia (Blue), U.S. PNW (White), Argentina (Red), Ukraine (Yellow)

Other Charts / Weather

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7-30 Midday: Mixed Grain Trading at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
SEP ’25 391.25 2
DEC ’25 412.25 1.25
DEC ’26 451.25 0
Soybeans
AUG ’25 973.25 -8.5
NOV ’25 1000.5 -9
NOV ’26 1052 -7.5
Chicago Wheat
SEP ’25 527.25 -2.5
DEC ’25 547.5 -2.5
JUL ’26 585.5 -1.25
K.C. Wheat
SEP ’25 522 3.5
DEC ’25 542 2.5
JUL ’26 585 2.5
Mpls Wheat
SEP ’25 5.775 0
DEC ’25 6.005 0.005
SEP ’26 6.5075 0
S&P 500
SEP ’25 6405.5 -0.5
Crude Oil
SEP ’25 69.73 0.52
Gold
OCT ’25 3322.7 -30.5

  • Corn markets are trading higher heading into midday, with U.S. weather remaining the primary bearish influence. With little fresh news to support a rally, the market continues to react mainly to weather developments.

  • The latest round of trade talks with China yielded no major breakthroughs, while key agreements with Canada, Mexico, South Korea, and India remain unsigned.

  • Ukraine’s agricultural union is projecting a 2-million-ton decline in corn production this harvest, citing poor weather conditions and locust infestations as key factors.

  • Ethanol production rose to 322 million gallons last week, up from 317 million the week prior, though still down 1% year over year. The industry used 109 million bushels of corn — an average of 15.6 million bushels per day — exceeding the 15.23 million daily pace needed to meet the USDA’s annual forecast of 5.5 billion bushels.

  • Soybeans turned lower at midday as U.S.-China trade talks concluded without tangible progress. The entire soy complex is trading lower in response.

  • President Trump is expected to make further calls regarding the tariff truce, despite Chinese officials stating that an extension had already been agreed upon. Traders remain concerned that prolonged negotiations could shorten — or even eliminate — China’s typical fall buying window for U.S. soybeans.

  • India purchased 150,000 tons of soybean oil from China after China discounted the sale due to an oversupply of both soybean oil and meal.

  • Rain is expected to move across eastern Nebraska into Iowa today, followed by a cold front. However, heat is forecast to rebuild during the second week of the outlook. These weather shifts may attract renewed market attention.

  • Wheat futures turned mixed at midday, remaining under pressure from a weak technical outlook and ongoing demand concerns.

  • Recent trade agreements have largely overlooked the U.S. wheat market, and high U.S. ending stocks will be challenging to reduce without an increase in demand.

  • Overnight, Bangladesh initiated a purchase of 220,000 tons of U.S. wheat as a goodwill gesture linked to ongoing trade negotiations.

  • Since July 1, Ukraine’s wheat exports have declined 66% year over year. Meanwhile, Cargill projects Australia’s wheat crop could reach 33 million tons, surpassing the government’s estimate of 30.6 million tons.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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7-30 Opening Update: Grains Quiet Wednesday Morning

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’25 389 -0.25
DEC ’25 411 0
DEC ’26 452 0.75

Soybeans

AUG ’25 982.25 0.5
NOV ’25 1009.25 -0.25
NOV ’26 1059.5 0

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’25 528.25 -1.5
DEC ’25 548 -2
JUL ’26 585 -1.75

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’25 518.5 0
DEC ’25 539.25 -0.25
JUL ’26 582.25 -0.25

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’25 5.7825 0.0075
DEC ’25 6.02 0.02
SEP ’26 6.5075 0

S&P 500

SEP ’25 6413.75 7.75

Crude Oil

SEP ’25 68.69 -0.52

Gold

OCT ’25 3354.1 0.9

  • Corn futures are fractionally higher this morning after testing recent lows yesterday. 

  • The past two nights brought severe weather to parts of the western Corn Belt. While high winds caused damage to buildings and structures, early reports suggest crop damage was mostly limited.

  • USDA reported a private sale of 225,000 metric tons of U.S. corn to Mexico for delivery in the 2025‑26 marketing year yesterday.

  • Soybean futures are slightly lower to start the day, as ongoing moisture and cooler temperatures across much of the Midwest continue to support strong yield potential.

  • Traders remain optimistic that U.S. and Chinese officials will agree to a 90-day tariff truce, easing concerns about a further escalation in the trade conflict.

  • Soybeans have closed lower in six of the last seven sessions, as traders grow increasingly concerned that the upcoming August WASDE report could show higher-than-expected yields. A larger crop, combined with weak export demand, raises the risk of a heavier carryout.

  • Wheat futures are trading near unchanged this morning, with a mixed tone across the three classes as markets await fresh direction.

  • Wheat traders are monitoring the upcoming August 1 tariff deadline set by President Trump. A failure to reach progress in U.S.-China trade talks could lead to renewed tariffs, potentially dampening export prospects and adding pressure to wheat prices.

  • USDA Crop Progress for the week showed U.S. winter wheat harvest at 80%, just 1 point behind the five-year average. Spring wheat is 95% headed, 3 points below normal, with harvest just beginning at 1% complete.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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7-29 End of Day: Corn and Wheat Test Recent Lows

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  • 🌽 Corn: Corn futures ended lower, pressured by continued selling in the front-month September contract.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans closed lower for the third straight session as August weather forecasts trend more moderate, easing supply concerns.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures were lower across all three classes on Tuesday, pressured by a rising U.S. Dollar and a falling Russian Ruble.

  • To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • Target to exit a quarter of 420 puts at 411 has been cancelled.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None. The target remains 483 to make the next sale.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Lead by selling in the front month September contract, corn futures finished the day with moderate losses as sellers stayed in control as the market is looking for bullish news. September futures broke to new contract lows as the spread between September and December continues to widen, weighing on corn futures.

  • Trade negotiators from the U.S. and China, meeting in Stockholm, agreed to extend the current “trade truce,” though no formal trade agreement has been reached. Final approval rests with President Trump. If the extension is rejected, tariffs could revert to April levels — raising uncertainty around future ag trade.

  • As expected, the national corn crop rating declined 1 point to 73% good to excellent. While ratings in Southern states softened as crops near maturity, the key “I-states” (Iowa, Illinois, Indiana) each improved by 1 point. This remains the second-highest crop rating for this week in the past 10 years, trailing only 2016.

  • Brazil Ag agency, CONAB, estimated the second crop corn harvest in Brazil has reached 66% complete, up 11% on the week. Harvest pace has improved over the past few weeks with improved weather as Brazilian producers are harvesting a record second crop corn.

  • Forecasts into early August are calling for below-normal temperatures and normal to above-normal precipitation across most of the Corn Belt. These conditions are expected to support crop development as the crop moves past the pollination stages nationally.

Corn Futures Back Near Recent Lows
With few weather issues so far this season, the typically volatile months of May through July have been unusually quiet for corn price action. Futures slipped last week and are now testing support near 391. A break below this level could shift focus to the August 2024 low near 360. On the upside, an unfilled gap at 413 is the first target, with resistance near 420 and a second gap at 430 if momentum builds.

Corn condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. No change to the 1114 upside target despite recent market weakness; a hot, dry August may be needed to reach it. While uncommon, sizeable August rallies have occurred before.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting on first targets for 2026 to post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for the third consecutive day as weather forecasts for August continue to trend to be more temperate. Traders are increasingly worried that the August WASDE could show higher-than-expected yields, raising the potential for a larger carryout amid continued weak export demand. Soybean meal was lower, while soybean oil gained alongside a strong rally in crude oil.

  • Monday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean conditions improving, with 70% rated good to excellent — up 2 points from last week and above last year’s 67%. The crop is now 76% blooming and 41% setting pods.

  • The 90-day tariff pause on Chinese goods is set to end on August 12, but today it was reported that US and Chinese officials would seek to extend this tariff truce. Unfortunately, it appears that a trade deal is not yet close, and China’s unwillingness to cooperate could signal that they will not be in great need of US soybeans this fall.

  • Yesterday, the USDA reported soybean inspections at 410,000 metric tons — above last week’s 377,000 tons and near the high end of trade expectations. Cumulative inspections are now running 10% ahead of last year.

Soybeans Stuck in Sideways Range
Soybeans failed to clear key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A break above the 100-day moving average would open the door to filling the gap left over the 4th of July weekend near 1050. On the downside, initial support sits near 1000, with stronger support at the April lows near 980.

Soybeans condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures were lower across all three classes on Tuesday, pressured by a rising U.S. Dollar and a falling Russian Ruble. The Dollar hit its highest level in over a month, adding headwinds to the grain complex — wheat in particular.

  • According to the USDA’s crop progress report, winter wheat harvest is 80% complete, down 1% from both last year and the five-year average. As for spring wheat, the crop was rated 49% good to excellent, down 3% from last week. Additionally, 92% of that crop is headed, and harvest is just underway at 1% complete.

  • European Union 2025/26 soft wheat exports are off to a weak start, down 64% from last year at just 803,300 metric tons, compared to 2.25 mmt at the same point in 2024.

  • Brazilian wheat planting is nearing completion. According to CONAB, through July 19 an estimated 96.9% of the crop has been sown, which is in line with last year. And in the region of Parana, where planting is complete, 82% of the crop is said to be in good condition.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. No active sales targets as still within the harvest window for SRW.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Holds Range; Watching 558 Resistance and 522.25 Support
Chicago wheat’s sharp rally in mid-June was short-lived, with futures pulling back toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support is found at the 50-day moving average; a break below that level could open the door to a retest of the June low at 522.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would be constructive and could set up a move back toward the recent highs near 590.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None. With HRW harvest nearly complete, the window is opening for the next upside sales targets to post.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 683 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Heads up that the July ‘26 contract is nearing the 584 Plan B stop, which if hit, would prompt buying July ‘26 put options.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Pulls Back Below Key Averages, Support at June Lows
KC wheat futures saw a strong rally in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580. However, late-month weakness pulled prices back below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which now serve as key resistance levels. On the downside, initial support is seen at the June low of 517.75, with secondary support near the May low around 500.

Winter wheat percent harvested (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (purple).

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Futures Test Key Support After July Slide
Spring wheat futures have come under pressure in July, weighed down by improving crop conditions and generally favorable weather across key growing areas. Technically, a cluster of major moving averages just above the 600 mark presents the first layer of upside resistance, with a chart gap near 650 serving as a secondary target if momentum builds. On the downside, the May lows near 580 should provide firm support in the event of further weakness.

Spring wheat condition percent good-excellent (red) versus the 5-year average (green) and last year (pink).

Other Charts / Weather

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7-29 Midday: Grains Struggle at Midday

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

Corn
SEP ’25 388.75 -5
DEC ’25 410 -4
DEC ’26 450.75 -2.75
Soybeans
AUG ’25 982.75 -6
NOV ’25 1008.75 -2.75
NOV ’26 1058 -1.25
Chicago Wheat
SEP ’25 530 -8.5
DEC ’25 549.75 -9
JUL ’26 585.75 -9.75
K.C. Wheat
SEP ’25 520.75 -5.25
DEC ’25 541 -5.75
JUL ’26 584.25 -6
Mpls Wheat
SEP ’25 5.785 -0.03
DEC ’25 6.025 -0.005
SEP ’26 6.54 0.03
S&P 500
SEP ’25 6415 -7.75
Crude Oil
SEP ’25 67.58 0.87
Gold
OCT ’25 3356.3 17.6

  • Corn prices struggle at midday, pressured by beneficial rainfall over night in South Dakota, Minnesota, and Iowa. December corn futures could look to retest the contract low of $4.0750 with limited upside potential for the foreseeable future.

  • Monday’s Crop Progress report showed corn ratings falling 1 point from last week to 73% good-to-excellent. This compares to 68% good-to-excellent the same week last year.

  • AgRural estimates that Brazil’s corn harvest is now at 68% complete, which is well below last year’s pace of 91% done at this time.

  • Soybeans remain lower at midday, pressured by crop ratings improving and lack of news regarding US/China trade talks .

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean ratings improve 2 points to 70% good-to excellent. This is above last year’s 67% good-to-excellent rating for the same week.

  • China is facing a surplus of soybean meal which has led to concerns over demand from the world’s largest buyer. China has not yet purchased any Q4 cargoes which is concerning given that is the heaviest marketing timeframe for the US.

  • All three wheat classes are weaker at midday on pressure from global harvest and a rising dollar which just hit a one month.

  • Spring wheat conditions fell 3 points to 49% good-to-excellent. Winter wheat harvest is pegged at 80% done which is just behind the 5-year average for the same week at 81% complete.

  • Conab estimates that 96.9% of Brazil’s wheat crop has been planted as of July 19 which is on pace with last year and the 5-year average.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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7-29 Opening Update: Grains Lower Following Crop Progress Report

ByGrain Market Insider

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’25 393.5 -0.25
DEC ’25 414.25 0.25
DEC ’26 454.25 0.75

Soybeans

AUG ’25 987.5 -1.25
NOV ’25 1010.25 -1.25
NOV ’26 1058.5 -0.75

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’25 531.25 -7.25
DEC ’25 551.75 -7
JUL ’26 588.75 -6.75

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’25 520 -6
DEC ’25 541 -5.75
JUL ’26 584.75 -5.5

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’25 5.8 -0.015
DEC ’25 6.025 -0.005
SEP ’26 6.51 0

S&P 500

SEP ’25 6438 15.25

Crude Oil

SEP ’25 66.67 -0.04

Gold

OCT ’25 3347 8.3

  • Corn is trading lower this morning as improving forecasts and expected large production pressure futures despite strong export demand.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw corn good to excellent conditions falling 1 point from last week to 73%, but it is above last year’s 68% at this time. 76% of the crop is silking and 26% is in dough stage.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections were good for corn at 1,522k tons which was above the average trade guess and compared to 985k last week and 1,071k a year ago. Top destinations were to Japan, Mexico, and Colombia.

  • Soybeans are lower to start the day as a result of improving crop ratings and more moderate temperatures coming in August along with better chances for rain. Both soybean meal and oil are lower as well.

  • The Crop Progress report saw good to excellent ratings for soybeans improve by 2 points from last week to 70% good to excellent. This compares to 67% last year at this time. 76% of the crop is blooming and 41% is setting pods.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections were decent at 410k tons which compared to 377k last week and 409k a year ago. Top destinations were to Egypt, the Netherlands, and Mexico. 

  • All three wheat classes are lower this morning despite yesterday’s bullish Crop Progress report. The dollar is higher which could be pressuring wheat, and the Australian wheat crop’s conditions have reportedly improved.

  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw spring wheat crop conditions fall 3 points to 49% good to excellent with 92% headed and 1% harvested. Winter wheat is now 80% harvested.

  • Yesterday’s export inspections were poor for wheat at 289k tons which compared to 732k last week and 468k tons a year ago. Top destinations were to Nigeria, Japan, and Mexico.  

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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7-28 End of Day: Grains start the week mostly lower

ByGrain Market Insider

All Prices as of 2:00 pm Central Time

Grain Market Highlights

  •  🌽 Corn: Corn futures started the week with modest losses as a less threatening weather outlook and expectations for a large fall harvest weighed on prices. The front-month September contract tested recent lows but held support.

  • 🌱 Soybeans: Soybeans finished lower for the second straight session, closing below all major moving averages. Weekend weather forecasts turned slightly less threatening, with more moderate temperatures and improved rain chances into August.

  • 🌾 Wheat: Wheat futures showed relative strength to start the week. Despite weakness in corn and soybeans and a sharply higher U.S. Dollar Index, Chicago wheat managed a small gain, while Kansas City and Minneapolis posted only minor losses.

  • To see updated U.S. weather maps scroll down to the other charts/weather section.

Note – For the best viewing experience, some Grain Market Insider content is best viewed with your phone held horizontally.

Corn

2025 Crop: 

  • Plan A:

    • Exit all 510 December calls @ 43-5/8 cents.

    • Exit half of the December 420 puts @ 43-3/4 cents.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Seven sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 461.25.

    • Changes:

      • Target to exit a quarter of 420 puts at 411 has been cancelled.

2026 Crop: 

  • Plan A: Target 483 vs December ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Four sales recommendations have been made to date, with an average price of 462.

    • Changes:

      • None. The target remains 483 to make the next sale.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following corn recommendations:

  • Corn futures started the week with modest losses as a less threatening weather outlook and expectations for a large fall harvest weighed on prices. The front-month September contract tested recent lows but held support. Still, the weak close leaves the market vulnerable to further selling.

  • USDA announced flash export sales of corn on Monday morning. Mexico purchased 225,000 MT (8.9 mb) of corn for the 2025-26 marketing year. In addition, Unknown destinations purchased 229,000 MT (9.0 mb) of corn, split with 35,000 MT (1.4 mb) for 2024-25 and 194,000 MT (7.6 mb) for 2025-26.

  • Weekly corn export inspections totaled 1.522 MMT for the week ending July 24, near the high end of expectations. Total inspections are running 29% ahead of last year. With the marketing year ending August 30, exporters still need to ship 9.9 MMT in existing sales commitments.

  • Forecasts into early August are calling for below-normal temperatures and normal to above-normal precipitation across most of the Corn Belt. These conditions are expected to support crop development as pollination wraps up.

  • In a move to support domestic farmers, Argentine President Milei announced a reduction in corn export taxes from 12% to 9.5%. The cut could make Argentine corn more competitive on the global market.

Corn Futures Back Near Recent Lows
With few weather issues so far this season, the typically volatile months of May through July have been unusually quiet for corn price action. Futures slipped last week and are now testing support near 391. A break below this level could shift focus to the August 2024 low near 360. On the upside, an unfilled gap at 413 is the first target, with resistance near 420 and a second gap at 430 if momentum builds.

Corn Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 22. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 2,610 contracts between July 15- July 22, bringing their total position to a net short 177,365 contracts.

Soybeans

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Next cash sale at 1114 vs November.

    • Exit one-third of 1100 call options at 1085 vs November.

    • Exit remaining two-thirds of 1100 November call options at 88 cents.

  • Plan B:

    • No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Two sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 1040.25.

    • Changes:

      • None. No change to the 1114 upside target despite recent market weakness; a hot, dry August may be needed to reach it. While uncommon, sizeable August rallies have occurred before.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B: No active targets.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Still waiting on first targets for 2026 to post.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following soybean recommendations:

  • Soybeans ended the day lower for the second consecutive day and closed below all major moving averages. Weather forecasts over the weekend shifted to be slightly less severe, going into August with more moderate temperatures and better chances for rain. Export inspections were not supportive, and there are concerns that demand will not keep up with the larger crop that is expected. Soybean meal led the complex lower while bean oil was higher.

  • USDA reported soybean inspections at 410,000 metric tons — above last week’s 377,000 tons and near the high end of trade expectations. Cumulative inspections are now running 10% ahead of last year.

  • China booked 22 to 25 soybean cargoes last week, all from Brazil. Year-to-date, Brazil has shipped 284 cargoes to China, Argentina 84, and none from the U.S. — raising further concern about export demand.

  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans by 21,412 contracts which reduced their net short position to 10,866 contracts. They bought back 12,105 contracts of bean oil leaving them long 55,326 contracts and bought 3,273 contracts of meal reducing their net short position to 129,743 contracts.

Soybeans Stuck in Sideways Range
Soybeans failed to clear key resistance at the May high of 1082 in mid-June, keeping the broader trend sideways. A break above the 100-day moving average would open the door to filling the gap left over the 4th of July weekend near 1050. On the downside, initial support sits near 1000, with stronger support at the April lows near 980.

Soybean Managed Money Funds net position as of Tuesday, July 22. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 21,412 contracts between July 15 – July 22, bringing their total position to a net short 10,866 contracts.

Wheat

Market Notes: Wheat

  • Wheat futures showed relative strength to start the week. Despite weakness in corn and soybeans and a sharply higher U.S. Dollar Index, Chicago wheat managed a small gain, while Kansas City and Minneapolis posted only minor losses. Bullish key reversals in September and December Paris milling wheat offered support, and fund buying may have played a role — Friday’s CFTC report showed net short positions were reduced by 14% in Chicago and 8.4% in Kansas City.

  • Weekly wheat inspections totaled just 10.6 mb, falling short of the 16 mb weekly pace needed to meet USDA’s export forecast. Still, total inspections at 122 mb are running 6% ahead of last year.

  • The Ukrainian economy ministry has reported that their nation has harvested 10.3 mmt of grain this season. This is 45% under the 19.0 mmt collected at the same time last year. Wheat harvest in particular has reached 7.1 mmt versus 14.7 mmt a year ago.

  • The USDA ag attaché to Australia reported that widespread early July rains have improved wheat crop prospects in southern regions. With the extended forecast calling for continued favorable moisture, above-average wheat production is now expected.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 633.50 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None. No active sales targets as still within the harvest window for SRW.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 681 vs July ‘26 for the next sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 588 support vs July ‘26 and buy put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at 624.

    • Changes:

      • None.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Chicago Wheat recommendations:

Chicago Wheat Holds Range; Watching 558 Resistance and 522.25 Support
Chicago wheat’s sharp rally in mid-June was short-lived, with futures pulling back toward the upper end of their 2025 trading range. Initial support is found at the 50-day moving average; a break below that level could open the door to a retest of the June low at 522.25. On the upside, a weekly close above 558 would be constructive and could set up a move back toward the recent highs near 590.

Chicago Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, July 22. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 8,446 contracts between July 15 – July 22, bringing their total position to a net short 52,041 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy call options if September closes over 653 macro resistance.

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 618.

    • Changes:

      • None. With HRW harvest nearly complete, the window is opening for the next upside sales targets to post.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A:

    • Target 683 vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

  • Plan B:

    • Close below 549 support vs July ‘26 to make the first cash sale.

    • Close below 584 support and buy July ‘26 put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Zero sales recommendations made so far to date.

    • Changes:

      • None. Heads up that the July ‘26 contract is nearing the 584 Plan B stop, which if hit, would prompt buying July ‘26 put options.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following KC recommendations:

KC Wheat Pulls Back Below Key Averages, Support at June Lows
KC wheat futures saw a strong rally in June, briefly testing the April highs near 580. However, late-month weakness pulled prices back below both the 100 and 200-day moving averages, which now serve as key resistance levels. On the downside, initial support is seen at the June low of 517.75, with secondary support near the May low around 500.

KC Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, July 22. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net bought 4,043 contracts between July 15– July 22, bringing their total position to a net short 43,959 contracts.

2025 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Buy KC call options if September KC closes over 653 macro resistance (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: Five sales recommendations made to date, with an average price of 646.

    • Changes:

      • None.

      • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

2026 Crop:

  • Plan A: No active targets.

  • Plan B:

    • Sell a second portion if September ‘26 closes below 639 support.

    • Close below 584 vs July ‘26 KC and buy July KC put options (strikes TBD).

  • Details:

    • Sales Recs: One sales recommendation made to date, at a price of 678.75.

      • Changes:

        • None.

        • FYI – KC options are used for better liquidity.

To date, Grain Market Insider has issued the following Minneapolis wheat recommendations:

Spring Wheat Futures Test Key Support After July Slide
Spring wheat futures have come under pressure in July, weighed down by improving crop conditions and generally favorable weather across key growing areas. Technically, a cluster of major moving averages just above the 600 mark presents the first layer of upside resistance, with a chart gap near 650 serving as a secondary target if momentum builds. On the downside, the May lows near 580 should provide firm support in the event of further weakness.

Minneapolis Wheat Managed Money Funds’ net position as of Tuesday, July 22. Net position in Green versus price in Red. Money Managers net sold 10,291 contracts between July 15 – July 22, bringing their total position to a net short 11,288 contracts.

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