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All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading slightly lower this morning under more bearish pressure from Brazil’s expected record safrinha corn crop which has good weather forecast for this week.
• Chinese markets are closed for holiday but on Friday, July corn on the Dalian exchange posted a contract low as they expect large supplies from Brazil.
• In the US, temperatures have been cool and the Midwest received some rain this weekend but the forecast going forward is warmer and drier which should get the planters rolling in bigger numbers.
• Last week’s CFTC data showed what everyone was anticipating which was funds taking a net short position in corn. They sold 64,731 contracts bringing them to a net short position of 15,297 contracts.

• Soybeans are trading higher this morning and appear to be continuing the reversal seen on Friday. Tight on hand supplies may be supporting the soy complex.
• Soybean meal is slightly higher while soybean oil is lower as crude oil falls by over 1.50 a barrel to 75 dollars a barrel.
• Brazil’s record harvest may be priced in for the moment after Brazilian farmers sold everything they could not store and now hold everything they can causing prices there to rise.
• Friday’s CFTC data as of April 25 showed funds as sellers of 47,574 contracts reducing their net long position to 87,208 contracts.

• Wheat is trading lower again and is now the lowest it’s been since July of 2021. Improving winter wheat crop ratings following last week’s rains add to the pressure.
• European officials made a deal with five eastern European countries which allows them to ban imports of Ukrainian grain as long as they allow grain to pass through the rest of Europe.
• Russia is looking unlikely so far to extend the Black Sea grain deal on May 18 unless their demands are met, and the missile attacks on Ukraine continue. If grain shipments slow out of the Black Sea, it could be supportive for US prices.
• Friday’s CFTC data showed funds adding to their net short position. They sold 10,029 contracts increasing their net short position to 113,012 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading slightly lower again on the momentum from yesterday’s 9.1 mb of sales cancellation to China. This week’s total cancellations are now at 25 mb.
• Open interest in corn has fallen by 112,000 contracts over the last 7 sessions indicating massive long liquidation. Today’s CFTC data will show how much non-commercials have sold.
• The Biden administration has issued an emergency waiver that will allow widespread sales of higher ethanol E15 gasoline this summer to combat high pump prices.
• The Midwest has received early morning freezes in some areas that may damage emergent corn.

• Soybeans are trading slightly higher this morning with support from soybean meal and oil. Soybeans have had 7 consecutively lower closes but today could end that streak.
• The CME reported 199 deliveries of May soybean oil, but there were no deliveries for soybeans or soybean meal.
• Barge shipments on the Mississippi declined to 657k tons from 756k the previous week, and soybean shipments were down 34% week over week.
• Soybeans have not seen sales cancellations like those in corn, and that could make a bullish case for soybeans despite Brazil’s new supplies on the market.

• Wheat contracts are trading slightly higher after a very sharp selloff yesterday caused by improving US weather and heavy fund selling.
• The EU’s soft wheat production in the 23/24 season is now seen at 130.2 million tons versus the March estimate of 130.9 million tons.
• India has ramped up their wheat purchases with more already bought in the current marketing year than the total purchases made in the previous year. 
• The CME reported 854 deliveries for May Chicago wheat, none for KC wheat, and 104 deliveries of Minneapolis wheat.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn continues its downward trajectory and July futures are nearing their  March low at 5.97 which could act as support. Pas that level is an unfilled gap from last July at 5.95-1/2 which may need to be filled.
• There are chances for rain in the northwest part of the Corn Belt today and tomorrow, but Iowa and Illinois are dry with below-normal precipitation in the 8 to 14-day forecast.
• The US had a good string of sales to China over the past few weeks but that one cancellation earlier this week put a negative tone on the market with traders fearing that there are more to come.
• The spike in fieldwork as planting begins has increased demand for fertilizer, therefore, limiting supply and increasing prices.

• Soybeans are lower for what would be the seventh consecutive day if this holds, and soybean meal has been a factor in dragging soybeans lower while soybean oil has struggled with a sharp decline in crude oil.
• Cargill is now planning to expand their soybean processing, biofuel output, and storage and export capacity in Brazil. As Brazil’s soy production grows each year, they will become a bigger player in the exports of soy products.
• Palm oil has been a big driver of soybean oil, and Indonesia announced that they will tighten their palm oil export ratio after the Ramadan holiday which could be friendly to bean oil futures.
• The USDA attaché in Brazil sees their 23/24 crop rising to 159 mmt as planted area is forecast to increase by 3.9%. Crushing is expected to ride by 5% to 55.8 m tons.

• Wheat is lower again with KC once again leading the way down. July Chicago wheat has fallen to its lowest level since July of 2021 as funds continue to short this market.
• Canada is expected to plant 27 million acres of wheat which would be a 6.2% increase from last year, with canola acres expected at 21.6 million.
• Soft wheat exports in the EU have rises 9.7% year over year at 25 m tons which compares with 22.8 m tons the previous year.
• The USDA attaché is forecasting the Australian wheat crop for 23/24 wheat at 29 mmt, a strong but nowhere near record-breaking number.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading higher this morning as funds who were previously exiting commodities may now see the oversold technicals as a buying opportunity.
• Brazilian corn exports are now seen at 166,552 tons in April vs 186,552 estimated tons. Brazil still has corn to sell but may begin running low.
• China plans to grow 88% of their own grain by 2032 which will mainly effect corn, soybeans, wheat, and rice.
• Below normal temperatures in the Midwest have caused some early morning freezes the past few days which could damage emerging corn.

• Soybeans are trading slightly higher while both soybean meal and oil are lower. The fundamental picture is not friendly short term with Brazil’s harvest, so today’s bounce is likely technical with soybeans oversold.
• Traders will continue to watch the Brazilian export values vs those of the US, and as long as Brazil remains so much cheaper it will be difficult for futures to gain momentum.
• The USDA attaché now sees the Brazilian 23/24 soy crop at a whopping 159 mmt as their planted acres are planned to expand.
• As US exports lag, Brazilian soy exports are seen reaching 14.1 million tons in April vs the 15.15 million tons expected in previous estimates. 

• Chicago and KC wheat are trading slightly higher while Minn is a bit lower. Not much has changed in the fundamental picture, but the grain complex has a friendlier feel today with the sharp decline in the US dollar.
• Poland has signaled that they will not lift the Ukrainian import ban in June. The ban came after the influx of Ukrainian grains drove down local prices in Poland, hurting their producers.
• Canadian wheat farmers have asked their country to step in to end the strike in the country. The public sector started a massive strike which is threatening shipments of grain.
• On Monday, the International Grains Council estimated that world wheat production will drop from 803 mmt in 22/23 to 787 mmt in 23/24, and will be short of demand by 7 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is slightly lower again this morning with the pressure in large part due to China’s cancellation of a big corn shipment from the US, sparking fears that more will come.
• Yesterday, new crop corn declined sharply but rallied to end the day steady, hinting that traders may be concerned about weather delays effecting yields down the road.
• Yesterday’s crop progress showed corn planting advancing from 6% planted to 14%, above the 5-year average of 11% despite weather challenges.
• The 6 to 10 day forecast is calling for lower than normal precipitation in the Corn Belt which will be helpful for planting, but below normal temperatures may slow germination on planted acres.

• Yesterday, soybeans closed sharply lower but are only down slightly this morning with the majority of losses in new crop contracts. Both soybean meal and oil are steady so far despite a decline in crude oil.
• The spread between May futures and Nov is approaching 2 dollars, and as time presses on, Nov will likely gain value to narrow that spread as the Nov contract retains good crush margins which are valuable to processors.
• The crop progress report showed soybean plantings at 9% which were in line with expectations and are also in line with the 5-year average.
• Brazilian cash prices have recently declined sharply, and both the US and Argentina have purchased Brazilian beans, with Argentina needing the soybeans to meet their export needs for soybean meal and oil.

• Wheat is lower again this morning and continues to be pulled down by KC wheat due to the forecast which says that most of Kansas and Oklahoma will receive significant and sorely needed rainfall over the next 7 days.
• Crop progress showed winter wheat good to excellent conditions slipping by 1% to 26%, and the crop conditions for winter wheat are the lowest ever for mid-April. 18% of winter wheat is headed vs the 5-year average of 14%.
• Spring wheat plantings are at 5% complete which is well below the 5-year average of 12%, and better weather will be necessary to improve this crop.
• Russia has threatened to retaliate if the G7 proceeds with a total ban on most exports to Russia, and said they would withdraw the safe-transit deal allowing Ukraine to export through the Black Sea.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading lower this morning as the 7-day forecast for much of the Corn Belt shows less rainfall and warmer temperatures that should get planting moving.
• Basis bids for corn shipped by barge to US Gulf Coast export terminals declined last Friday, and export premiums fell due to large supplies coming out of South America.
• Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials as net buyers the previous week increasing their net long position by 22,322 contracts to 49,434 contracts.
• The spike in spring fieldwork and near-term demand caused fertilizer supplies to tighten at New Orleans and inland, contributing to higher prices for urea, phosphates, and potash.

• Soybeans are mixed this morning with front months slightly higher but deferred contracts lower as domestic demand keeps nearby prices supported but the Brazilian harvest pressures new crop.
• The US has bought Brazilian soybeans after their prices dropped significantly, and two vessels carrying a combined 79,150 tonnes of Brazilian soybeans are heading to the US within the next few days.
• Soybean meal is trading slightly higher while soybean oil is trading lower along with a slight drop in crude oil as palm oil slips as well.
• Friday’s CFTC data showed funds buying 9,760 contracts of soybeans which increased their net long position to 134,782 contracts.

• All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning as more unfavorable weather is forecast. Texas is not forecast to receive rain that they need, and Kansas and Oklahoma are receiving some scattered showers tomorrow but it is likely not enough.
• Jordan’s state grain buyer issued an international tender to buy up to 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat that can be sourced from optional origins.
• IKAR has cut Russian wheat production by 2.3% to 84 m tons from an earlier forecast of 86 m tons due to problems in eastern Russia and the Volga region.
• Friday’s CFTC data showed that funds bought back some of their net short position, buying back 1,264 contracts and reducing their net short position to 102,983 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.