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All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• July corn is trading higher this morning and is getting support from the large premium left by May corn now that it is off the board. December is slightly lower under pressure from good US weather and large supplies of Brazilian corn.
• Higher wheat prices are giving some support to corn as wheat production in the US is struggling with many producers abandoning fields due to drought.
• Rains fell over the northwestern Plains and Minnesota with much of it falling over dry areas but some of the rains causing delays for producers as they wait for fields to dry.
• Friday’s CFTC report showed funds lightening up on their short position a bit, buying back 8,503 contracts for a net short position of 109,643 contracts. 

• Soybeans are finding support this morning after falling to the lowest levels this year in the Nov contract. Soybean meal is higher while soybean oil is lower despite higher crude oil.
• The US soybean crush for April is being estimated at 174 mb  which is 2.7% higher than April of last year, but down 6.2% from the previous month.
• The soybean harvest is now complete in Brazil, and producers are hesitant to sell spot beans when they are able to store them. Some producers are opting to exchange soybeans for inputs and fertilizers for next year’s crop.
• Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials as sellers of 7,914 contracts, decreasing their net long position to 48,459 contracts.

• Wheat is trading higher this morning as the HRW wheat quality tour begins today and traders will get an idea of just how bad the crop is.
• The USDA estimated HRW wheat production at 514 mb which was less than expected. Winter wheat production for Kansas was estimated at 191.4 mb, the lowest in 50 years and down 244.3 mb last year.
• There has still been no word on whether Russia will agree to extend the Black Sea corridor with a deal that expires this Thursday. Ukrainian officials are preparing for no extension and no talks are planned for this week.
• Non-commercials added to their large net short position last week selling 9,418 contracts bringing the total net short position to 116,906 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading slightly higher this morning as the May contract prepares to go off the board today at nearly a 50-cent premium to July.
• The first deliveries against the May contract were made last night at 50,000 bushels delivered by ADM.
• Today’s WASDE may show small declines in export sales and ethanol production but could raise feed and residual usage.
• The USDA will likely have new crop ending stocks above 2 billion bushels, and are expected to increase Brazilian production but lower Argentinian production.

• Soybeans are trading higher with soybean meal posting the biggest percentage gains but soybean oil moving higher as well thanks to slightly higher crude.
• Brazil’s soybean production is estimated at 154.8 mmt by CONAB vs previous estimates of 153.6 mmt. Analysts in a Bloomberg survey are expecting 155.1 mmt.
• Argentina’s soybean harvest is estimated at 51.6% complete with production estimates unchanged at 22.5 mmt.
• Despite falling crush margins, NOPA April US soybean crush was seen at 174.17 mb compared to 185.81 mb the previous month.

• Wheat is trading higher ahead of today’s WASDE report as trade worries about yield estimates the USDA may provide.
• Traders are expecting new crop ending stocks to be estimated at just over 600 mb which would leave a similar all wheat balance sheet to the one we have this year.
• The meetings between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the UN ended yesterday without an agreement to the continuation of the Black Sea grain deal which is supporting prices today.
• Argentina’s is trying to bring its genetically modified wheat to market and has been significantly expanding access to distributors in Argentina.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn ended the day yesterday higher but is trading lower this morning ahead of the export sales report which is expected to show another week of poor exports.
• Brazil’s total corn output will grow by 12% from the previous cycle reaching a projected 126.7 mmt in 22/23 according to a Reuters poll.
• Ethanol production fell the past week and production pace has been below the levels needed to meet the USDA’s estimates.
• Corn may end up trading quietly until tomorrow’s WASDE numbers are revealed, and traders get a look at estimates for the US carryout and South American production.

• Soybeans are trading lower this morning and the Nov contract made new lows overnight. Soybean meal is relatively unchanged while soybean oil is lower with lower crude.
• Technically, a close under the March low at 12.47 for the the Nov contract could open up a move to 12.17, which were the lows made last July before the weather rally kicked in.
• Argentina’s Rosario Grains exchange cut their forecast for the 22/23 soybean crop by 6.5% to 21.5 mmt which compares to a previous estimate of 23 mmt.
• China is continuing their efforts to stabilize their soybean imports and diversify their sources by promoting higher domestic production.

• Wheat is trading lower across the board today ahead of export sales and following more rain in the forecast for drought stricken areas in the southwest.
• The EU’s soft wheat exports in the season beginning July 1 rose 11% and has reached 26.5 mmt as of May 7, compared with 23.9 mmt the previous year.
• China is expecting a strong wheat harvest  and stable prices over the summer with a low possibility of the government buying crops to support prices.
• The EU’s wheat crop outlook has been raised to 130 mmt, with stockpiles possibly ending 22/23 at an extremely high level. Spain is expected to produce less due to persistent drought.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading lower again this morning following yesterday’s Chinese import cancellation of US corn. This is the third cancellation and there are fears more will come.
• On Friday the USDA will release their WASDE report with estimates for the US 23/24 corn carryout at 2,094, the Brazilian corn crop at 126 mmt, and Argentina at 35 mmt. The estimates for Brazil were higher than the previous month while estimates for Argentina are lower.
• There have still been no deliveries for the May corn contract and it is now 8 days into the delivery period.
• Between the planting progress which is ahead of schedule, increased Brazilian production, and the sales cancellation, the market is under pressure.

• Soybeans are trading lower again this morning along with soybean meal and oil. Crude oil is lower as well, sitting just under 73 dollars a barrel.
• Trade estimates for the US 23/24 carryout in Friday’s WASDE is 293, a higher guess than last month. The Brazilian soybean crop is now estimated at 155 mmt vs the previous 154 mmt, and Argentina is expected to produce 24 mmt vs 27 mmt.
• Lower Chinese demand is concerning, but the USDA is expected to keep Chinese imports near 96 mmt but could see more exports from Brazil.
• Yesterday, managed money were net sellers of 8,000 contracts of soybeans, bringing their net long position down to just 53,000.

• Wheat is lower again, but KC wheat and Minn have been holding up better than Chicago due to the poor crop conditions and slow spring wheat planting pace.
• Outbound inspections have resumed under the Black Sea grain deal, but the deal has still not been renewed and Russia’s terms to continue the agreement are lofty.
• Yesterday, managed money were net sellers of 4,000 contracts of Chicago wheat, adding to their net short position and bringing it to 113,000 contracts.
• Tensions between Ukraine and Russia are high, and the Ukrainian nuclear power plant is under threat of nuclear accident again due to the fighting.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading lower this morning after yesterday afternoon’s crop progress showed that producers were able to get a good chunk of the crop in the ground despite the scattered rain.
• Corn was 49% planted versus a trade estimate of 48%, 26% complete a week ago, and 42% on average. 12% of the crop is emerged.
• Yesterday’s export inspections were on the low side at 38 million bushels, and the average is 51 mb for inspections to reach the USDA’s estimates.
• Brazil’s second crop corn sales have begun to slow as prices fall and shipping becomes difficult due to bottlenecking at ports. Forward sales hit 24.3% of expected production of 92.2 mmt.

• Soybeans are trading lower this morning after a good jump in crop progress yesterday, and export inspections yesterday morning were decent.
• Crop progress showed that 35% of soybeans are planted which was above trade estimates, with 19% planted a week ago and ahead of the 21% average. 9% of the crop was emerged.
• Yesterday’s export inspections totaled 14.5 mb but 15 mb are needed each week. It is possible that USDA expectations aren’t met despite the fact that year-to-date inspections are above a year ago.
• China’s imports of soybeans fell 10% in April compared to a year ago as stricter clearance processes at customs have delayed the processing of cargoes.

• Wheat is beginning the day mixed with Chicago posting the most losses, KC down slightly, and Minn wheat higher. Poor weather conditions in the US have been supportive.
• Spring wheat is 24% planted, below the average trade guess and below the average of 38% for this time of year. 5% of the spring wheat crop is emerged.
• In winter wheat, the good-to-excellent rating rose 1% to 29%, but the poor-to-very poor rating rose from 42% last week to 44%. 38% of the wheat is headed.
• Tensions between Ukraine and Russia remain high, and the Zaporizhzhia power plant is under threat of a nuclear accident again due to the fighting, but a meeting between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the UN has been pushed up to May 10 where they will discuss the Black Sea agreement.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading mixed this morning with July a bit higher and Dec lower. With the recent selloff in US corn prices, the US is becoming more competitive with Brazil.
• In both Brazil and the US corn production estimates are positive due to favorable weather and corn sowing that is being favored in the US.
• The recent rainfall in the US has slowed planting a bit but helped soil moisture in areas like Nebraska and western Iowa which were very dry.
• Friday’s CFTC report showed funds adding to the their net short position in corn by 102,849 contracts bringing their total net short position to 118,146 contracts.

• Soybeans are trading higher along with both soybean meal and oil, and crude oil is higher again as well which is offering support along with Argentina’s perpetually shrinking crop.
• Argentina’s struggling crop is providing an offset to Brazil’s record crop which is keeping soybean supplies tighter than expected, and Brazilian soybeans are being shipped to Argentina to their crushing plants.
• Brazilian soy exports reached 12.08 mmt in May versus just 10.27 mmt for the same month a year ago.
• Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of soybeans by 30,835 contracts reducing their net long position to 56,373 contracts.

• Wheat is trading higher again this morning as traders grow more concerned about the Black Sea grain deal’s potential non-renewal on May 18. Poor crop ratings in the US have also been supportive.
• No new ships were authorized to carry out Black Sea grain exports last Friday after a meeting with Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, and the UN. Daily inspections of previously authorized ships continue however. 
• An estimate for Oklahoma wheat production was cited at 54 mb earlier this week, far less than the 68.6 mb last year and the 115.1 mb produced the year before.
• Friday’s CFTC report showed funds adding to their net short position by 13,312 contracts, increasing that net short position to 126,324 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading higher this morning and has recovered from yesterday mornings export sales net cancellations which drove prices lower. 
• Non-commercials were net short corn as of last Friday’s CFTC report but with corn technically oversold and the Black Sea grain deal potentially not getting renewed, it is finding some support.
• Global corn stockpiles at the end of the 22/23 season have been raised and are at 288.2 mmt which is up from an April estimate of 285.4 mmt thanks to a bigger India harvest.
• China imported its first cargo of corn from South Africa this week of 53,000 tonnes as they seek to diversify their purchasing markets.

• Soybeans are higher again today along with both soybean meal and oil as crude oil begins to mover higher back above 70 dollars a barrel.
• Palm oil has finally made a reversal gaining 5% due to an expected drop in palm oil stocks and increased demand. Soybeans and soybean oil have been looking to world veg oil prices for direction.
• Brazil’s lack of storage for their record crop are pressuring premiums in both corn and beans, and the negative premiums may result in losses of 2.30 billion dollars this year for the sector.
• Barge shipments down the Mississippi River have fallen to 595k tons for the week ending April 29 from 657k tons the previous week as high water levels remain an issue.

• Wheat is trading higher for what would be the third consecutive day as poor US crop conditions, an attempted drone attack on Russia, and the potential non-renewal of the Black Sea grain deal bolster prices.
• The Taiwan Flour Millers’ Association purchased an estimated 52,225 tonnes of milling wheat to be sourced from the United States in a tender on Friday.
• The FAO raised the EU’s wheat crop outlook to 139.5 mmt for 2023, but they cut the outlook for Turkey and Pakistan’s crop due to drought.
• An estimate for Oklahoma wheat production was cited at 54 mb earlier this week, far less than the 68.6 mb last year and the 115.1 mb produced the year before.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is a bit lower this morning after rallying yesterday following an alleged assassination attempt by Ukraine on Vladimir Putin and attack on the Kremlin. No one was hurt and it is unclear who was behind the attack.
• Estimates for today’s export sales report for corn are between  negative 300k and 900k tons with an average of 175k. Net sales cancellations could pressure prices.
• Ethanol stocks have fallen by 3.9% to 23.363 mln bbl while analysts were expecting 24.423. Plant production is at 0.976 m b/d vs the survey average of 0.963 m
• Unfavorable weather and harvest delays have cut Argentinian corn production with an average estimate of 34.6 mmt, down 1% from the previous update. 

• Soybeans are trading lower this morning but essentially have gone nowhere in the past week despite plenty of volatility. Both soybean meal and oil are lower while crude oil is slightly lower.
• Estimates for today’s USDA export sales report in soybeans are between 100k and 500k tons with an average of 332k. Good exports for soybeans may begin to trend slightly higher as Brazilian farmers begin to slow sales.
• The 6-day forecast for most of the Corn Belt calls for slightly above average precipitation but warmer than normal temperatures with the warm temperatures moving North as well.
• July soybean meal closed at a new 5-month low yesterday and crush premiums have continued to slide lower, near the lowest in a year.

• Wheat rallied sharply yesterday after the Kremlin accused Ukraine of launching a drone attack in order to assassinate Putin. The attack was shot down and no one was hurt, but it is unclear if Ukraine was even involved.
• The deadline for the Black Sea grain deal is approaching on May 18, and yesterday’s stunt doesn’t lend much confidence that Russia will agree to extend the deal.
• Ukraine’s next wheat crop is expected to be the lowest since 2012/13 at just 15.04 mmt, and yield estimates are below the 5-year average.
• Adding more support to the wheat complex yesterday was the crop tour which expects Oklahoma to raise the smallest wheat crop since 1955 due to the extreme drought.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn has turned lower this morning and has taken out the low from last Friday, in part due to hesitancy about today’s Fed announcement and also due to speculation about a large 2023 corn crop.
• Today at 1pm central the Federal Reserve will announce their potential rate hike. They will likely announce a 25 basis point increase but there is a small possibility that rates are left unchanged due to the recent bank failure.
• Brazilian corn prices have fallen to the equivalent of 5.18 for the July contract on the Bovespa exchange as their safrinha corn receives beneficial weather.
• Ethanol production is projected to be lower than the previous week at 963k b/d, while the stockpile average estimate is 24.423 m bbl vs 42.306m a week ago.

• Soybeans are trading lower this morning with both soybean oil and soybean meal trading lower as well, and crude oil continues its slide lower and is down over 2 dollars a barrel.
• The Fed rate announcement is casting a bearish sentiment over commodities today but more bearish for soybeans is StoneX’s new estimate for the Brazilian crop which is now at 157.7 mmt for 22/23.
• Earlier this week, NASS reported an increase in the soybean crush to 198 mb in March, but crush premiums have fallen significantly and may continue to drop.
• In the North where fields are too wet, soybean plantings may increase as corn runs out of time, but temperatures are expected to rise over the next two weeks, drying things out.

• The wheat complex is mixed today with Chicago and Minn slightly lower but KC a bit higher. Overall, wheat is faring the best today between corn and soybeans as the US faces very tight wheat supplies.
• The Oklahoma wheat crop is now seen at 54.3 million bushels, the lowest crop since 1955 due to extreme drought and low yields.
• Russian wheat exports in this season are now seen at 44.4 mmt versus previous estimates of 44.5 mmt according to Sov Econ. Russian traders have struggled to compete due to the unofficial price floor of $275/ton.
• Spring wheat areas should benefit from warmer temperatures forecast over the next two weeks, but some fields may still be too wet and may keep plantings below the 10.57 million that the USDA has estimated.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading slightly higher after prices reversed on Friday and have been trying to work higher since.
• Yesterday afternoon the USDA released their crop progress report which showed corn at 26% planted which is in line with the 5-year average. Iowa is at 29% complete and Illinois at 40%.
• Strong winds blew through the Midwest yesterday causing dust storms, and one in Illinois caused a 100 car pileup. There are currently red flag warnings in Minnesota.
• Barge traffic has been closed along the Mississippi River due to high water levels impacting the already slow export business.

• Soybeans are higher again which would make it the third day in a row if the trend continues. Export inspections were good and domestic demand has been robust.
• The USDA reported that 19% of the soybean crop is planted which is well ahead of the 5-year average of 11% for this time of year. Illinois is at 39% complete and Iowa is at 16%.
• Both soybean meal and oil are higher and supporting soybeans, and soybean oil continue to work higher despite declines in crude oil.
• The Fats and Oils report from NASS showed both soybean oil and soybean meal stocks down 7% from a year ago.

• Wheat is trading slightly higher and is trying to find a bottom after is fell to its lowest levels since mid 2021.
• Last week’s rain in some of the southwestern Plains was not enough to significantly help the winter wheat crop with the USDA reporting an increase of only 2% in the good to excellent rating to 28%.
• The poor to very poor rating for winter wheat increased from 41% to 42% with the ratings for Kansas even worse and increasing from 62% to 64%.
• The USDA has said that 12% of the spring wheat crop has been planted, below the 5-year average of 22%. Warmer temperatures this month should help increase that number, but a lot of prevent plants are likely.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

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