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Opening Update: June 13, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’23 620.75 3.5
DEC ’23 553 3.75
DEC ’24 518.75 4

Soybeans

JUL ’23 1389.75 17
NOV ’23 1221 12
NOV ’24 1180 9

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’23 631.75 -2
SEP ’23 643.25 -2.75
JUL ’24 686.25 -3.75

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’23 789 -7.5
SEP ’23 786 -7.75
JUL ’24 759.25 -7

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’23 808.75 -5.5
SEP ’23 808.75 -6
SEP ’24 788.5 2

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4393.5 5.5

Crude Oil

AUG ’23 68.58 1.29

Gold

AUG ’23 1978.8 9.1

  • Corn is trading slightly higher again this morning after yesterday’s weather driven rally. Yesterday’s crop progress showed corn ratings slipping more than expected.
  • Crop progress showed the corn crop at 93% emerged which was up from 85% last week and up from the average, but the good to excellent rating fell more than expected to 61% from 64% last week due to dry conditions.
  • While most of the Corn Belt is dry, the 5-day forecast shows beneficial rainfall totals in the area with a focus on Minnesota, Iowa, and Missouri. The rains are expected around Thursday and Friday.
  • Corn prices in Brazil remain significantly cheaper than in the US, cutting into export business. Corn in Brazil is trading at the equivalent of $4.61 a bushel.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning after yesterday’s crop progress report. Soybean meal is higher as well as soybean oil which is getting support from palm oil which is up 2.5%.
  • Crop progress showed soybeans 86% emerged which was up from 74% last week, but the good to excellent rating fell to 59% from 62% a week ago, below trade expectations.
  • The Environmental Protection Agency has a June 14 deadline for announcing final renewable volume obligations that will impact the profitability of renewable diesel.
  • Crop ratings for both corn and soybeans saw the biggest declines in eastern states, so the benefit of Sunday’s rains likely weren’t included in yesterday’s ratings.

  • Wheat is trading lower this morning as harvest begins, and crop ratings improved from the previous week after recent rains.
  • Winter wheat is now rated 38% good to excellent which is up from 36% a week ago, 89% of the crop is headed and 8% is harvested which compares with 4% a week ago.
  • Spring wheat is 90% emerged which compares with 76% a week ago, but good to excellent ratings fell to 60% from 64% a week ago.
  • The high plains drought is so bad that Kansas is reportedly importing wheat from Europe in a rare move.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: June 12, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’23 616.25 12
DEC ’23 543.75 13.25
DEC ’24 514 9.5

Soybeans

JUL ’23 1390.25 3.75
NOV ’23 1213.5 9.25
NOV ’24 1173.75 10.75

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’23 633.5 3.25
SEP ’23 645.25 3.5
JUL ’24 690.5 4.25

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’23 798.25 0.5
SEP ’23 795.5 1.75
JUL ’24 764 1

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’23 815.25 3.5
SEP ’23 815.5 3
SEP ’24 786.5 -3.5

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4358.5 9.75

Crude Oil

AUG ’23 68.84 -1.49

Gold

AUG ’23 1977.8 0.6

  • Corn is trading higher this morning after weekend rains left much to be desired. Rain only fell in select areas of the Belt but areas that did receive rain got a healthy amount.
  • There is only light rain forecast near Colorado and east of Michigan today, and areas that did not receive rain over the weekend are struggling.
  • Dr. Cordonnier lowered his US corn yield to 179 bps which would bring production down to 14.94 billion bushels. Acreage was left alone at 91.5 mb.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as of June 6 buying back 6,573 contracts of corn, decreasing their net short position to 44,492 contracts.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning but have not kept up with the gains in corn. Dryness over the weekend has been a bullish factor, but soybeans can wait a bit longer for rain before it becomes an issue.
  • Light to moderate rains are forecast across the Midwest this week, but models are mostly dry west of Indiana and north of Missouri.
  • Malaysian May palm oil stocks rose to 1.69m tons from 1.5m tons in April which has been a main pressure for lower soybean oil lately.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds adding to their net long position buying 13,452 contracts, increasing their net long position to 13,981 contracts.

  • Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago and Minn higher but KC lagging behind as weather, Russia, and small changes in the WASDE affect prices.
  • Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas have all received beneficial rains recently improving the HRW wheat crop, but further north, the majority of the western Canadian Prairies were mostly dry, although rains are forecast later this week.
  • USDA’s NASS made a small increase to its winter wheat production estimate going from 1.130 bb to 1.136 bb, largely based on an 11 mb increase in the HRW wheat estimate.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back some of their short position by 7,524 contracts, decreasing their net short position to 119,474 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: June 9, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’23 606.5 -3.75
DEC ’23 529.25 -3.75
DEC ’24 507 -2.25

Soybeans

JUL ’23 1369 5.75
NOV ’23 1191.5 2.5
NOV ’24 1147 0.25

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’23 625.5 -0.75
SEP ’23 638.75 -0.25
JUL ’24 683.25 -1.75

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’23 795.75 -9
SEP ’23 794 -9.75
JUL ’24 760.75 -6.75

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’23 807.5 -8.25
SEP ’23 809.5 -8.5
SEP ’24 790 20

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4339.75 -2

Crude Oil

AUG ’23 71.63 0.19

Gold

AUG ’23 1979.8 1.2

  • Corn is trading lower this morning as forecasts predict that a front will move through the Midwest bringing showers to most areas.
  • Today’s WASDE report will be released at 11 central and traders are expecting old crop ending stocks to rise slightly and for exports to drop.
  • US corn crops in drought areas jumped to 45% with corn crops experiencing moderate drought rose by 11% from the previous week.
  • Brazilian corn production has been estimated higher by Bloomberg around 130.3 mmt, 4.7 mmt higher than the previous estimate.

  • Soybeans are trading higher across the board with gains in soybean oil and meal as well. Crude oil is also trading higher.
  • Helping soybeans and soybean oil is India cutting their palm oil imports in favor of soybean oil and sunflower oil, with imports of soybean oil jumping to 301,000 tons vs 262,000 tons last month.
  • Barge shipments on the Mississippi River fell for the week ending June 3 with soybean shipments down 26% from the previous week.
  •  Today’s WASDE report will likely show a decrease in Argentinian production and US ending stocks may also be increased.

  • Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago trading slightly higher but KC and Minneapolis down ahead of the WASDE.
  • HRW wheat conditions have improved significantly thanks to recent rains, but the good to excellent ratings are still at only 36%.
  • China will reportedly feed more wheat to animals after heavy rains damaged high quality wheat which could see their import demand for wheat rise.
  • Traders are expecting that Friday’s WASDE will show a jump in US winter wheat yields over last month’s USDA estimate.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: June 8, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’23 601 -3.25
DEC ’23 525.25 -5.5
DEC ’24 503.25 -0.75

Soybeans

JUL ’23 1361.25 0.5
NOV ’23 1174 -4.5
NOV ’24 1135 0.5

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’23 620.75 4
SEP ’23 631.75 4
JUL ’24 678.75 4.75

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’23 793.75 5.75
SEP ’23 792 6
JUL ’24 752.75 0.5

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’23 799.5 5.5
SEP ’23 803.75 7.25
SEP ’24 770 -15

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4317 -0.25

Crude Oil

AUG ’23 73.14 0.5

Gold

AUG ’23 1960.4 2

  • Corn is trading lower this morning following another change in the forecast yesterday evening that calls for wetter weather.
  • The GFS model has been calling for more rain than the European but yesterday the European started following the GFS more closely.
  • Today’s export sales will be likely show fair to poor numbers as South American offers remain significantly cheaper.
  • Brazilian corn production has been estimated higher by Bloomberg around 130.3 mmt, 4.7 mmt higher than the previous estimate.

  • Soybeans and soybean meal are mixed with front months higher but deferred months lower, but soybean oil slightly higher along with crude oil
  • Bloomberg has estimated the Brazilian soy crop higher by 0.7 mmt for a total of 155.6 mmt.
  • In May, Brazil’s shipments to China rose 60% compared to the same period last year, and shipments to Argentina were 979,000, a record high for that destination.
  • China’s soy imports have hit a record after previously delayed for inspection vessels were able to unload at once. The imports are 66% higher than the previous month.

  • Wheat is trading slightly higher after yesterday’s sharp selloff. The wheat fundamentals are strong but the market is largely controlled by funds who have an advantage in this thinly traded market.
  • Traders are waiting to hear the extent of the impact of Ukraine’s destroyed dam which has displaced thousands of residents and ruined the irrigation system.
  • India received 57% below average rains in the first week of June despite a large monsoon waiting off the southern coast.
  • Traders are expecting that Friday’s WASDE will show a jump in US winter wheat yields over last month’s USDA estimate.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: June 7, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’23 610.5 2.5
DEC ’23 541.5 0.5
DEC ’24 511.5 0.25

Soybeans

JUL ’23 1361.75 8.5
NOV ’23 1187 2.25
NOV ’24 1145.5 0.25

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’23 632.5 4.75
SEP ’23 645.25 5.25
JUL ’24 693.5 5.25

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’23 821.25 1
SEP ’23 815.25 0.75
JUL ’24 766.5 -7

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’23 818.25 1.75
SEP ’23 820.25 0.75
SEP ’24 785 -7.75

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4333.75 0.75

Crude Oil

AUG ’23 72.6 0.75

Gold

AUG ’23 1977.7 -3.8

  • Corn is trading lower this morning as the market continues to trade weather which is now calling for a large front that should move from Minnesota and into Iowa and Illinois.
  • Recent dryness has been a bullish factor and caused crop conditions to decline, but as soon as the Corn Belt gets a good rain in the upcoming weeks, crops should perk back up.
  • Friday’s WASDE report will most likely show a decline in Argentinian corn production as the USDA has stayed far above other analysts, but there is a slight chance they lower US yields too.
  • Brazilian corn exports continue to climb and reached 1.66 mmt in June vs 1.503 at this time a year ago.

  • Soybeans are mixed this morning with front month July higher but Nov lower, and both soybean oil and meal higher. Crude oil is higher as well.
  • Brazilian soy exports reached 13.11 mmt in June compared to 9.946 the previous year. Although Brazil dominates exports, the US had a surprise sale of soybeans to Spain yesterday.
  • Chinese May soybean imports reached a record 12 mmt which was the highest ever in a month, and June imports could reportedly be even higher.
  • Brazilian farmers will be receiving 7.6 billion reais to cover expenses in a new farming credit program for the 23/24 season. 

  • Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago higher but KC and Minn slightly lower. The quiet action is a bit confusing given the escalation in Ukraine yesterday that affects wheat growing areas.
  • The destruction of the dam in Ukraine presumably by Russia threatens agricultural production as the dam was used to help control irrigation.
  • The EU’s soft wheat exports rose 11.4% year over year to 28.9m tons, with leading destinations Morocco, Algeria, and Nigeria.
  • Ukrainian grain exports are at 45.6 million tonnes so far for the July-June season and are down from 47.2 mmt the same time a year ago.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: June 6, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’23 607 9.5
DEC ’23 543.75 6.75
DEC ’24 515 3.25

Soybeans

JUL ’23 1356.25 6.25
NOV ’23 1185 5.25
NOV ’24 1147.25 5

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’23 644.25 20.25
SEP ’23 656 19.75
JUL ’24 702.75 16.25

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’23 844.75 22.5
SEP ’23 838.25 21.75
JUL ’24 799 16.25

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’23 836.25 16
SEP ’23 836.5 14.25
SEP ’24 792.75 12.25

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4320.25 -3.75

Crude Oil

AUG ’23 70.62 -1.64

Gold

AUG ’23 1979.6 5.3

  • Corn is trading higher this morning following yesterday’s crop progress report that showed ratings falling, but support is also coming from a 20-cent rally in wheat today as well.
  • Corn is now estimated at 96% planted, above 92% last week, but good to excellent conditions have fallen due to recent dryness. Ratings have fallen to 64% from 69% a week ago.
  • Yesterday at midday, weather forecasts changed and called for more rain within the next 7 days on the GFS model, but traders are unsure if this will hold.
  • Yesterday’s export inspections showed 46.5 mb inspected for 22/23 putting total inspections down 32% from the previous year.

  • Soybeans are trading higher along with corn following yesterday’s crop progress, but soy products are mixed with soybean meal higher again but soybean oil lower due to lower palm oil prices.
  • Crop progress showed that soybeans were 91% planted compared to 83% last week, emergence is at 74% vs 56% a week ago, and the good to excellent rating is at 62% which was below trade estimates at 65%.
  • On Friday, the USDA will release this month’s WASDE and expectations are for old crop ending stocks to rise slightly and for Argentinian production to be lowered.
  • India’s palm oil imports hit a 27-month low as buyers seek cheaper soft oils, and palm oil stocks in Malaysia are expecting an output surge that could pressure prices further.

  • Wheat is leading the grain complex higher this morning following news that a Ukrainian dam was blown up, fighting there has escalated, and Russia says it does not see a way forward to renew the Black Sea Grain deal.
  • Australian wheat production is now expected to decrease by a third due to extreme drought and the second driest May on record.
  • Wheat sowing is beginning in Argentina, the major origin country of wheat imported by Brazil. 6.3% of the crop has reportedly been sown so far.
  • Crop progress for wheat showed winter wheat 4% harvested  vs 5% a year ago with a good to excellent rating of 36% vs 24% last week. Spring wheat is 93% planted and 76% is emerged.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: June 5, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’23 610 1
DEC ’23 544.5 3.25
DEC ’24 515 -1

Soybeans

JUL ’23 1352 -0.5
NOV ’23 1185.75 2
NOV ’24 1148.5 0.25

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’23 621 2
SEP ’23 633.75 1.5
JUL ’24 681.5 -1

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’23 818.25 6
SEP ’23 814.75 7.5
JUL ’24 788 9.25

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’23 814.5 6.75
SEP ’23 813.25 7.5
SEP ’24 780.5 13.25

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4334.25 3.25

Crude Oil

AUG ’23 73.26 1.42

Gold

AUG ’23 1956.7 -12.9

  • Corn is trading slightly higher as hot and dry conditions are forecast over the next week with some scattered showers, but according to the GFS model, Sunday and Monday should bring good rains.
  • Today’s crop progress report will likely show a decline in corn ratings due to the weather and lower soil moisture levels.
  • Mexico has said that they would defend their position on genetically modified corn, but that the use of their local corn for human consumption won’t affect the trade with the US.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of corn by 46,962 contracts which reduced their net short position to 51,065 contracts.

  • Soybeans are beginning the week higher but soy products are mixed with soybean meal slightly higher and soybean oil lower despite higher crude.
  • Just as corn is trading the weather very closely, so are soybeans. The recent hot and dry weather has been supportive, but soybeans can wait longer to receive good rains than corn can and barring a drought, US soybean production is expected to be large.
  • Friday’s WASDE report will likely show small changes but the largest one may be a revision lower to Argentina’s production. The USDA last estimated it at 7 to 8 mmt higher than other analysts and exchanges.
  • Friday’s CFTC data showed funds as net sellers of soybeans by 3,618 contracts leaving them net long only 529 contracts at this point.

  • Wheat is higher this morning due to the weather as well as attention on Friday’s WASDE report which will likely show lower US production.
  • One ship departed a port in Ukraine over the weekend carrying 33,000 mt of wheat, and 5 other ships left the Black Sea carrying 210,471 mt of agricultural products.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as net sellers of wheat by 8,210 contracts increasing their net short position to a very large 126,998 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: June 2, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’23 585.5 -7
DEC ’23 527.75 -2.25
DEC ’24 510 -0.5

Soybeans

JUL ’23 1327.75 -1.75
NOV ’23 1169.5 0.5
NOV ’24 1139 4

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’23 626 1.75
JUL ’24 673 0.25

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’23 797 -0.5
JUL ’24 770.75 -0.25

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’23 788.25 -0.75
SEP ’23 792.5 1.75
SEP ’24 767.25 6

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4292.25 22.5

  • Corn is trading lower this morning with July down 9 cents and Dec down only 3. Dryness in the short term has been a concern, but today’s forecast calls for more scattered showers.
  • Yesterday evening, the Senate voted to suspend the debt ceiling through January 1, 2025, avoiding risk of default and giving traders some confidence back.
  • While rain is forecast in the second half of June, dry weather in the interim has been a concern and was likely behind yesterday’s gains.
  • Export sales will be released at 7:30 and will likely show disappointing numbers again as Brazilian corn remains cheaper than the US.

  • The soy complex is beginning the day mixed with soybeans and soybean meal lower, but soybean oil higher as it gains support from higher crude and higher palm oil.
  • Yesterday’s rally can be attributed to oversold technicals and a dry 10 day forecast in which the Midwest will receive only scattered showers with the bulk of rain falling in the western Plains.
  • Soybean export sales are also expected to be low again today as Brazil dominates the market having already exported 15.1 mmt. They have harvested 5.70 billion bushels at this point, the most by any country.
  • Yesterday, USDA’s NASS said that 187 mb of US soybeans were crushed in April, up 3% from a year ago, and that soybean oil stocks at the end of April totaled 2.08 billion pounds, the highest in over a year.

  • Wheat is mixed with Chicago relatively unchanged, KC down slightly, and Minn up slightly. All three products are on track for lower closes on the week.
  • The war in Ukraine doesn’t seem to matter to traders anymore despite the fact that vessels leaving the Black Sea are sparse and that Russia is intentionally trying to slow inspections and traffic down.
  • Today’s export sales report will likely show shipments of wheat below the necessary 39 mb needed to meet the USDA’s estimates and could result in a revision lower on the WASDE for exports.
  • Argentina’s wheat planting has been delayed due to poor soil moisture with only 6.3% planted, and China’s wheat crop in the Henan province is receiving too much rain which could result in a loss of 10 to 20 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: June 1, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’23 599.5 5.5
DEC ’23 529.25 7.5
DEC ’24 509.5 4.75

Soybeans

JUL ’23 1318.25 18.5
NOV ’23 1165 18.5
NOV ’24 1135.5 13

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’23 605.75 11.5
SEP ’23 619 11
JUL ’24 663.5 7.5

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’23 801.25 10.75
SEP ’23 794.75 9.5
JUL ’24 753.75 2

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’23 787 7
SEP ’23 791 8.5
SEP ’24 761.25 3.75

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4242.25 10

Crude Oil

AUG ’23 67.85 -0.39

Gold

AUG ’23 1984.5 2.4

  • Corn is trading higher to begin the month with the deferred contracts leading, and for all the volatility last month, July corn actually gained 9 cents.
  • Rains that were expected in the 7-day forecast were pushed West of most growing areas into Saskatchewan and Montana while the rest of the Corn Belt should receive only scattered showers.
  • Brazilian corn remains cheap and on the Bovespa exchange, July corn is trading at the equivalent of $4.44 a bushel.
  • Refinitiv Commodities analysts expect US corn production to be fractionally better than the previous year citing rapid plantings and decent early season conditions.

  • Soybeans are trading higher as well to begin the month with both soy products higher but crude oil slightly lower. 
  • Yesterday, November soybeans hit a new one year low, and with the losses in soy products, crush premiums fell back to 1.60 a bushel, the lowest incentive for processors in two years.
  • Soybean meal has fallen sharply caused by feed demand concerns, chiefly California’s Prop 12, but yesterday’s rally in lean hogs breathed some life into meal futures.
  • Yesterday, shipping data from Reuters showed Brazil exporting 178,800 tonnes of soybeans to buyers in the US in a rare move, but still a bargain for the importers.

  • Wheat is trading higher with July KC having climbed back above the 8 dollar mark. While good to excellent ratings improves slightly, there are major concerns about the US HRW wheat crop.
  • The SRW wheat crop is looking good so far and the spring wheat crop is mostly getting planted, but it seems that the US wheat crop will be similar to the low levels of the past two years.
  • Russian farmers have begun to suspend wheat deliveries to exporters while waiting for higher prices after the export duty will be reduced on June 7 which is causing wheat to pile up in Russia.
  • Canadian wheat production for 23/24 is expected to be in line with last season despite area expansions due to poor soil moisture conditions in the Southern Prairies. Canadian wheat production is estimated at 33.3 mmt, down 1% from last season.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: May 31, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’23 585.75 -8.25
DEC ’23 514.75 -10.5
DEC ’24 498.75 -7.75

Soybeans

JUL ’23 1277.5 -19
NOV ’23 1136 -17.25
NOV ’24 1120 -16.5

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’23 576 -15
SEP ’23 590 -15.5
JUL ’24 641.75 -12.25

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’23 769.75 -14
SEP ’23 767.75 -12.75
JUL ’24 746 -7.75

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’23 782.75 -10.25
SEP ’23 784.75 -9.75
SEP ’24 750 -7.5

S&P 500

JUN ’23 4204.75 -10.25

Crude Oil

JUL ’23 67.58 -1.88

Gold

AUG ’23 1977.2 0.1

  • Corn futures are lower again this morning following yesterday’s selloff as wetter weather is forecast for the end of June.
  • Planting progress showed that 92% of the corn crop is planted compared to 81% last week with 72% emerged and a rating of 69% good to excellent compared to 73% a year ago.
  • The best chances of rain in the seven day forecast are in the western Plains with some falling in the central and Eastern Corn Belt, with better rains expected the second week of June.
  • Concerns that the US debt deal could fall through Congress is weighing on markets with most commodities falling.

  • Soybeans are also trading lower after their sharp selloff yesterday with soybean oil leading the way lower yesterday and today.
  • Planting progress showed that 83% of the soybean crop has been planted compared to 66% last week, with emergence at 56% compared to 36% a year ago. Soybeans have not received a rating yet.
  • Soybean inspections yesterday were 8.8 mb for 22/23 putting total inspections down 2% from the previous year. The USDA is estimating soybean exports at 2.015 bb, down 7% from the previous year.
  • China’s economic growth may be lagging, and July soybeans on the Dalian exchange closed down by 1.6% putting prices at their lowest levels in the past two years.

  • Wheat is trading lower along with the rest of the grain complex this morning due to more favorable weather in the extended forecast and yesterday’s crop progress report.
  • The winter wheat good to excellent ratings jumped to 34%  vs 31% last week thanks to the recent rains. Spring wheat is 85% planted vs 64% last week, and emergence is at 57% vs 32% last week.
  • Wheat inspections totaled 14.0 mb for the week ending Thursday May 25, putting total inspections at 719 mb and down 2% from the previous year.
  • Russian farmers have begun to suspend wheat deliveries to exporters while waiting for higher prices after the export duty will be reduced on June 7. This is causing wheat to pile up in Russia.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.