December corn traded both sides of unchanged overnight and is now near the top of its 9-1/2 cent range as it recovers somewhat from yesterday’s bearish USDA report.
The USDA lowered the potential corn yield to 177.5 bushels/acres (-4.0 bu/acre), just above market expectations, but did not adjust the demand side of the balance sheet to establish a new carry out projection of 2.262 billion bushels for the 23/24 marketing year. This total was in line with analysts’ expectations. If realized 23/24 ending stocks and stocks/use ratios would be the highest in 7 years.
The USDA lowered old crop export demand by 75 million bushels, and traders in the market pressured corn prices feeling that a projected new crop export demand of 2.100 billion bushels, up 450 mb from 22/23 projections, will be difficult to reach at current corn price levels.
Weekly ethanol production reported by the EIA came in below expectations and slipped to 1,032k barrels/day from the previous week’s 1,060k barrels/day. Ethanol stocks also rose 1.8% to 22.658M barrels.
The Funds were active sellers yesterday following the USDA report, selling an estimated 10,500 contracts. They are now estimated to be short 26,000 contracts.
The soybean complex is trading higher this morning with traders likely covering some short positions after yesterday’s bearish USDA report, with soybean meal and oil also trading higher.
The USDA surprised the market by adding 25 mb to the 22/23 carryout bringing the total to 255 mb (versus 232 mb expected) and only dropping the 23/24 carryout numbers 50 mb from last June to 300 mb, with an estimated yield of 52 bpa. Trade expectations were about 200 mb for 23/24 carry out with a 51.3 bpa yield.
South American production for 22/23 was left unchanged in today’s report with Brazil’s crop estimated at 156 mmt versus 156.2 mmt expected, and Argentina’s crop estimated at 25 mmt versus 23.6 mmt expected.
Funds were active sellers of soybeans following the bearish USDA report, selling an estimated 10,000 contracts. They are now estimated to be long 94,000 contracts.
Export sales will be announced later this morning for soybeans and are expected to range from 10 – 30 mb.
The wheat market is also posting a bit of a recovery from yesterday’s downturn with Chicago and Minneapolis mostly higher, and K.C. mixed.
In yesterday’s report, the USDA estimated 23/24 all wheat production at 1.739 bb versus expectations of 1.677 bb, and 1.665 bb last month. 22/23 wheat carryout was estimated at 580 mb versus expectations of 583 mb, and 23/24 carryout came in at 592 mb when the trade was looking for 565 mb.
The USDA estimated the winter wheat yield at 46.9 bpa, up 2.0 bu from last month’s projection, and for reference, last year’s average yield was 47.0 bpa.
Like corn and beans, funds were active sellers in Chicago wheat, selling an estimated 9,000 contracts. They are now estimated to be short 59,000 Chicago wheat contracts.
Export sales released later this morning are expected to range from 8 – 16 mb.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher and near the top of its 5-cent range this morning in the December contract as traders ready themselves and cover short positions ahead of today’s 11 am USDA WASDE report.
Expectations for today’s USDA report are for corn yield to drop to 176.3 bpa, down 5.2 bpa from the June report. Despite the yield drop, the additional acres and possible demand adjustment will likely keep new crop corn carryover near 2.250 billion bushels on the report. The average trade guess for the 2022 crop ending stocks is 1.424 bil. bu, versus 1.452 bil. bu in June.
The weekly EIA report on ethanol production will be released today at 9:30 CST with some looking for weekly production to be down from last week’s pace of 1,060k barrels/day.
Over the next 10 days decent rain is expected through eastern Nebraska, southern Iowa, Missouri, and into Illinois and the eastern Corn Belt. While the north/central Midwest and northern Plains are expected to see much lighter amounts.
Soybeans continue their march higher ahead of today’s 11 a.m. USDA report with soybean meal and oil also higher, with soybean oil likely getting a boost from higher Malayasian palm oil.
The average trade guess for 2022 carryover is up 2 mil bu. at 232 mbu. versus the USDA’s June estimate of 230, largely due to reduced export demand. Due to lower acreage numbers from the June 30th report, the average trade estimate for 2023 carryover is 203 mil. bu with a 51.3 bpa, versus June’s 350 mil. bu estimate.
South American basis is improving which is allowing US soybeans to be more competitive in the world market, though they remain above SA offers.
According to Refinitiv, China has increased soybean imports from Brazil in response to concerns of tight US supplies. China’s total Feb. – June soybean imports from Brazil were 40.74 million tons versus 31.6 mil. tons and 38.6 mil. tons for 2022 and 2021 respectively.
It has been rumored that China bought 10 – 14 cargoes of US soybeans off the PNW for October delivery for their reserves. Though at this time there remains no confirmation from the USDA and New Crop commitments continue to be historically low.
The wheat complex is trading mixed this morning with Chicago lower, Minneapolis mixed, and K.C. near unchanged.
Average trade estimates for today’s USDA report have the 2023 US wheat crop at 1,683 mil. bu. versus June’s 1,665 mil. bu. While 2023 total Winter Wheat is estimated at 1,154 mb versus 1,136 mb. The first HRS estimate is near 477 mb versus 446 mb last year. The average trade guess for 2023 wheat ending stocks is up 9 mb to 571 mb versus the USDA’s June estimate of 562 mb.
In its first outlook of the year, the French agricultural ministry estimated the country’s soft-wheat harvest at a 2-year high of 35 mmt, 1.3 mmt higher than last year. Yield was also reported to be the highest since 2019.
As the Black Sea Grain Initiative is set to expire next week, Russia has been targeting the Ukrainian port city of Odessa with drone attacks. Though the attacks have largely been neutralized with relatively minor damage reported. Additionally, the expiration of the BSGI will likely make it difficult for Ukraine to reach its export targets.
According to Ukraine’s agricultural ministry, the country’s grain exports for the 23/24 season as July 12, rose to 894k tons versus 598k tons last season. With wheat exports double and corn up 22% versus year ago levels.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
There’s not much turn around on this turn around Tuesday as corn follows through this morning with higher prices and traders square positions ahead tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report with an anticipated 2023 carryout in excess of 2.1 bil bu.
Crop conditions as of Sunday, July 9 for the US corn crop were 55% good to excellent, 2% above expectations and a 4% increase from last week.
Basis for nearby bids on corn shipped to the US Gulf firmed yesterday on limited supplies and rising barge freight. While bids for the deferred months softened on rising futures prices.
While Brazil’s safriha corn crop appears to be quite bountiful, harvest is behind. One of Brazil’s crop watchers AgRural, estimates the harvest to be 27% complete compared to 41% last year, which may be helping strengthen the domestic basis.Â
The soybean complex is mixed this morning with soybeans and soybean meal higher in anticipation a near 200 mb 2023 carryout in tomorrow’s USDA report. While soybean oil is lower, following lower palm oil prices.
The USDA rated the US soybean crop as of Sunday, July 9 at 51% good to excellent, a 1% increase from last week, but also 1% below trade expectations and 11% below year ago levels.
Spot basis bids at river terminals, processors and elevators were mostly weaker yesterday as strong farmer sales fed the short-term demand on rising Board prices.
China has adopted new regulations to require imported soybeans to be quarantined in specific warehouses prior to entering the domestic market. While these new regulations will likely slow the importation process into China, it remains unclear what affects they will have on the overall market.
All three wheat classes are firmer to start the day with Minneapolis contracts leading the way higher as crop conditions came in below expectations.
As of Sunday July 9, the US Winter Wheat crop was estimated to be 46% harvested, 5% behind trade expectations of 51%, which also compares to 62% last year and 59% complete on average. The USDA also rated the Spring Wheat crop at 47% good to excellent, which was 2% below expectations.
The President of Turkey is expected to meet with Vladimir Putin to discuss the Black Sea Grain Initiative with hopes of extending the arrangement past July 18, but the Kremlin has yet to confirm whether a meeting is scheduled.
According to IKAR, Russian wheat export prices are trading at $231/mt, keeping Russia the dominant player in world wheat exports.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The corn market is mostly higher this morning as it continues to consolidate following the USDA’s surprise increase in acres and ahead of Wednesday’s USDA July supply and demand update.
Expectations call for increased 2023 corn production in Wednesday’s report. The average estimate is for a 15,149 bil. bu. crop versus 13,730 in 2022, with an average yield guess of 175.8 bpa versus the USDA’s June estimate of 181.5 bpa.
The average guess for 2022 ending stocks is a reduction of 42 mil. bu. from the June estimate to 1,406 mil. bu., with an average guess for 2023 ending stocks coming in at 2,166 mil. bu.
The managed funds were big sellers following the USDA’s Stocks and Acreage report. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed as of Wednesday, July 5, Funds sold 71,000 contracts to flip their positions from net long 53k to net short 18k contracts.
The most current US 6 – 10 day forecast calls for mostly normal precipitation in northern Corn belt with slightly above in the southern Corn Belt, southern Plains and Southeast. While below average temperatures are called for in much of the central Corn Belt and Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Kansas. The extended 8 – 14-day forecast shows above normal temperatures moving in for most of the US with normal precipitation in Midwest and slightly above normal precipitation in Southeast.
Soybeans are higher across the board led largely by soybean oil with 1.42 cent gains in December, with meal up $4.50 per ton, as warm temperatures are expected to move in across the US in the 8 – 14-day forecast.
The market may likely continue to consolidate ahead of Wednesday’s USDA July WASDE report. The trade is expecting slightly lower 2023 production at 4,250 mil. bu. versus 4,276 for 2022 with a 51.4 bpa compared to 49.5 last year.
The average trade guess for 2022 ending stocks is up 5 mil bu. at 235 mbu. versus the USDA’s June estimate of 230, largely due to reduced export demand. As for 2023, the average trade estimate is for 206 mil. bu. due to lower acreage and production.
In Friday’s COT report, managed funds were sellers of soybeans, but not to the extent of corn. The report showed Funds sold a total of about 10,000 contracts, reducing their net long to an estimated 89,000 contracts as of Wednesday July 5.
The wheat market is mixed as we come out of the overnight session with Chicago and K.C. mostly higher and Minneapolis mixed with the deferred contracts trading lower. While nearby contracts are higher.
Trade estimates for Wednesday’s USDA report have the 2023 US wheat crop at 1,683 mil. bu. versus June’s 1,665 mil. bu. While 2023 total Winter Wheat is estimated at 1.154 mil. bu. versus 1,136 mil. bu. The first HRS estimate is near 477 mil. bu. versus 446 mil bu. last year.
The average trade guess for 2022 ending stocks for all wheat is down 15 mil bu. to 583 mbu. versus the USDA’s June estimate of 598 mil. bu. As for 2023, the average trade estimate is for 565 mil. bu., up 3 mil. from June’s estimate.
Last Friday’s COT report didn’t show a large overall change in the fund’s Chicago wheat position. In total, as of Wednesday July 5, the funds added 2,000 contracts to their short positions bring their total net short to 54,000 contracts.
The expected moisture in the 6 – 10 day forecast in the southern Plains may add a level of concern for additional delays and quality issues for any unharvested HRW wheat in the region. While there remains a level of concern for wheat crops in Canada, Central Russia and Northern China.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is starting the day lower following yesterday’s short covering rally as it struggles to gain positive footing with mostly favorable weather forecasts and the surprise jump in acres.
The front moving through the Midwest has produced some moisture, but amounts have largely been disappointing. Temperatures are expected to stay mild with the potential for more showers next week.
The latest release of the US Drought Monitor indicated that 67% of the corn crop remains in drought conditions, down 3% from the week prior. With more rain in the forecast for the Corn Belt, it could be expected to fall further.
Brazil’s corn basis levels have seen some significant improvement with harvest only 20% complete, and active soybean sales taking precedence to make room for the safrinha corn crop. This improvement has likely added some support to US corn prices, and though they remain 25 – 35 cents/ bu. above Brazil, the gap has narrowed.
Yesterday the managed funds were active buyers in the corn market, purchasing upwards of 8,000 contracts. They are currently estimated to be long 26,000 contracts.
Soybeans are trading lower this morning as traders continue to take a breather and reduce long positions. Like soybeans, soybean meal is also lower this morning, while bean oil is higher.
The front moving through the Midwest has produced some moisture, but amounts have largely been disappointing. Temperatures are expected to stay mild with the potential for more showers next week. Weather conditions in the Northern Plains are mostly favorable and may see some isolated showers over the next five days with cooler temperatures to help ease crop stress.
The area of the US soybean crop that is in drought areas dropped 3% to 60%. While is still a significant area, given the recent rain in throughout the Cornbelt, it is expected to drop further.
The managed funds were active sellers in yesterday’s session, reducing their long position by an estimated 6,500 contracts. They are now estimated to be long 86,500 contracts.
The wheat market is mostly lower this morning in all three classes, with deferred contracts in K.C. and Minneapolis trading higher.
Weather conditions in the Northern Plains are mostly favorable and may see some isolated showers over the next five days with cooler temperatures to help ease crop stress.
The Central and Southern Plains will continue to see showers and thunderstorms over the next week with mild temperatures. Though the conditions are largely favorable, the rain may slow the wheat harvest.
Managed Funds were net sellers yesterday in the wheat market, adding an estimated 6,000 contracts to their short position, which is now estimated to be short 61,000 contracts.
Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported current 23/24 grain exports at 497k tons, which compares to 318k tons for 2022. Of the total, 177k is reported to be wheat and 273k tons of corn, most of which was exported via the Black Sea.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is beginning the day higher but is still near its lowest prices of the year after the USDA estimated 94.1 million acres planted.
Rains are currently falling in southern Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle and the rains are expected to move east over the Corn Belt in the next five days.
Areas North of the Corn Belt are expected to remain drier, but temperatures will also be lower giving some relief.
Brazil has reportedly harvested 20% of their second crop corn and based on yield data, analysts raised production estimates again.
Soybeans are trading slightly higher this morning apart from the front month which is lower, while soybean meal trades higher and soybean oil is lower.
The rains falling in Kansas are forecast to move into the southern Midwest and are expected to miss most of Missouri, but the 6 to 10 day forecast looks wet for the central Corn Belt.
The USDA’s forecast for 83.5 million acres of beans has kept prices elevated, and next week’s WASDE will likely add to the bullishness with a small ending stocks number.
Exports have been poor with Brazil keeping a firm grasp on the competition, but US soybeans are getting support from renewed soybean oil demand.
Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago lower bur KC and Minn higher as rain in Kansas is expected to delay harvest for another couple of days.
Russia attacked the city of Lviv overnight and Ukrainian forces have said that Russia is making slow progress in taking back eastern Ukraine.
Russia’s wheat crop estimates were raised by 2.5 mmt and are now at 85.7 mmt on goods weather.
The French 2023 soft wheat yield is seen at 5% above the 10-year average and was helped by good sowing conditions and frequent rains in early spring.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
On Monday, corn traded higher throughout the day before ultimately settling lower on continued pressure from the bearish USDA report.
The USDA said that the planting estimate for corn was 94.1 million acres which would increase ending stocks and has caused selling in corn futures.
On Friday, crop progress was released showing the corn crop rated 51% good to excellent, up just one point from a week ago. Illinois, Iowa, and Indiana showed improvement from a week ago.
Rains fell in the western Plains yesterday, and Kansas and Missouri are expecting heavy rain amounts over the next five days, and good rain in the Corn Belt as a whole.
On the flip side of corn, soybeans ended higher on Friday with continued support from the USDA report with planting estimates at just 83.5 million acres.
August soybean oil closed at a new high for the year on Monday as demand picks up. Yesterday, both canola and rapeseed traded higher.
Despite the recent beneficial rains in the driest areas of the Corn Belt, crop progress showed soybeans falling by 1% in the good to excellent rating and is now at 50%, the lowest rating for this time of year since 2012.
With soybean futures in the US surging, China has taken notice, and September beans on the Dalian exchange closed 2.9% higher yesterday to a four month high.
Wheat ended Monday lower after being pulled down by falling corn prices and poor export demand.
Yesterday, September milling wheat closed up 0.8% and early today those prices were up another 1.6%, so it is possible that US futures open higher.
On Monday, the USDA said that 37% of winter wheat was harvested which is down from a five year average of 46% for this time of year. Winter wheat good to excellent ratings were steady at 40%.
Spring wheat good to excellent ratings slipped 2% to 48% good to excellent, and in North Dakota, ratings slipped from 49% to 40%.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher this morning despite last week’s bearish USDA report but is likely following soybeans today with their large gains.
Friday’s corn planting estimate was 94.1 million acres by the USDA, the most since 2013. This makes it more likely for 23/24 ending stocks to rise.
The Corn Belt received significant rains in most areas with some of those areas in the most need, so today’s crop progress report will show if good to excellent ratings start moving back up.
Funds were net sellers as of June 28 reducing their net long position by 5,454 contracts reducing it to 52,845 contracts.
Soybeans are continuing their ascent this morning on the heels of Friday’s very bullish USDA report. Both soybean meal and soybean oil are significantly higher.
The USDA’s acreage report on Friday said that only 83.5 million acres of soybeans are expected to be planted in 2023, but 8.2 million acres of those aren’t planted yet and may not get planted.
The National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration issued a new Seasonal Drought Outlook on Friday which showed drought persisting but improving in the central Midwest while worsening in Wisconsin and Michigan.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of soybeans by 22,530 contracts, increasing their net long position to 99,480 contracts.
Wheat is trading lower this morning despite gains in both corn and soybeans, and KC wheat is leading the way lower as weather improves and exports remain stagnant.
Friday’s report which showed more corn acres being planted would give the US a surplus of corn to feed that would cut into wheat use for feed and is a bearish factor.
Over the weekend, ABC News reported that Ukraine’s nuclear power plant was doing drills to prepare for possible emergency radiation exposure after the government said that Russia planted explosives at the power plant.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back a big chunk of their short position. They bought back 31,966 contracts, reducing their net short position to 52,168 contracts.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly higher this morning after yesterday’s Derecho winds across the Midwest that brought rain but strong winds and large hail as well.
There were 64 reports of large hail yesterday and 477 reports of wind damage with three counties in Illinois reporting gusts over 100 mph.
Despite the storm and damage, Illinois was in desperate need of rain which it received a decent amount of.
The planted acreage report will be released today and trade estimates are guessing that corn acres will be at 91.85 million acres, down 150,000 acres from March intentions, some of these acres may be going towards soybeans.
Soybeans are trading higher with July leading and both soybean meal and oil higher as well. Yesterday’s storm and the damage it caused is helping futures out today.
Soybean oil has gotten support from a rise in world veg oil prices with palm oil up today, and concerns about smaller southeast Asian palm oil production.
Today’s USDA acreage report is expected to show a small increase in soybean acres with likely increases in Minnesota and North Dakota. Stocks are expected to be tighter.
Argentina has completed their soybean harvest with yields coming in 45% less than normal, another bullish factor today.
Wheat is trading higher this morning with KC leading the way up after forecasts turned slightly drier for spring wheat areas.
The USDA acreage report is expecting to show slightly lower spring wheat acreage and about 200,000 acres of declines in all wheat. Wheat stocks are forecast to be 611 mb compared to current ending stocks of 598 mb.
Global wheat production is now estimated higher at 786 mmt from 783 mmt, but stockpile estimates are expected to fall to 264 mmt from 271 mmt as consumption expands.
Ukraine’s wheat crop is being estimated at 17.9 mmt which is down 12% year over year.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading relatively unchanged this morning after two days of sharp selloffs. July is slightly higher while deferred contracts are about a cent lower.
Yesterday, a front moved through Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois, but 24-hour precipitation totals showed that most areas received about 1/4 inch.
There is still significant rain in the 5-day forecast with large amounts expected in the parts of Illinois that are the driest.
US ethanol stocks rose by 0.8% to 22.979 mln bbl with analysts having expected 22.755 mln bbl.
Soybeans are trading slightly lower with losses in soybean meal but gains in July and Aug soybean oil. Yesterday’s rain was beneficial, but the important weather is still ahead.
Brazilian soy exports have reached up to 14.2 mmt in June compared to the 14.3 mmt forecast the previous week as the world looks to Brazil for soybeans.
Brazil’s crop is now expected to reach a record breaking 156 mmt of soybeans harvested, far above the initial analyst guesses earlier this year.
Friday morning’s acreage report is expected to show soybean acres up slightly from May intentions with average trade guesses at 87.67 ma, up from the previous estimate.
Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago and KC slightly lower but Minn around 3 cents higher as the market trades quietly ahead of Friday’s planted acreage report.
Friday’s USDA stocks report is expected to show June 1 wheat stocks down near 335 mb vs 611 mb a year ago.
Despite support from the anticipated end of the Black Sea grain deal next month, Ukraine is now expected to raise a wheat crop as high as 24.4 mmt compared to estimates ranging between 16 to 18 mmt.
Canadian wheat planting was only slightly lower than previously expected at 26.9 million acres with canola at 22.1.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
