Corn is trading slightly lower this morning but is mostly quiet ahead of the USDA report today.
The USDA has surveyed over 15,000 producers for today’s report, and estimates are that production will be over 15.0 bb and that new crop ending stocks will be over 2.0 bb.
DTN’s yield tour was on day 4 yesterday and they estimated corn yields in Kansas at 150.7 bpa and 150.1 bpa in Missouri.
Brazil’s corn production was raised again for 22/23 from 127.8 mmt to 130 mmt, but analysts in a Bloomberg survey were estimating 135.5 mmt.
Soybeans are slightly higher this morning along with soybean meal and oil ahead of the WASDE report which is anyone’s guess to whether it will be friendly or not.
Estimates are expecting a smaller crop of 4.238 bb which would be based on a lower yield of 51.2 bpa with new crop ending stocks expected to be lowered from 300 mb to 261 mb.
Yesterday’s yield tour by DTN saw soybean yields in Kansas at 39.0 bpa and 48.4 bpa in Missouri, but both crops have chances to improve from further rains.
Thursday’s weekly export sales report showed that old crop soybeans only need 46 mb more shipped by the end of August to meet the USDA’s goal of 1.980 bb, but sales have slowed down in a big way.
Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago and KC slightly lower but Minn slightly higher as markets trade quietly ahead of the WASDE report.
In today’s report, the USDA will most likely adjust wheat export estimates as Russia stays in control of wheat exports and other countries have trouble exporting.
This morning the US halted an import of Polish wheat at Houston after authorities cited issues with contamination, but the move could spark tensions with the EU.
Ukraine has harvested nearly 23 mmt of grain so far which includes 17.7 mmt of wheat and 4.9 mmt of barley, but shipping will be a problem.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly higher this morning as it settles into a trading range ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report.
Rains are currently falling in Kentucky and Tennessee but are forecast to move into Iowa and Minnesota and the northeast over the next 5 days.
The Dow Jones average trade guess for yields that the USDA will release tomorrow are at 175.4 bpa with the USDA’s most recent guess at 177 bpa.
In China, corn on the Dalian exchange is near its highest prices in 4 months following concerns about recent flooding in northeastern China.
Soybeans are slightly higher as well but have mostly traded in a range the past week, and soy products are mixed with soybean meal higher and soybean oil lower.
Very beneficial rains have fallen over the past 7 days for western and southern soybean states with the 5-day forecast showing rain in the northern and eastern states, a great scenario for soybeans setting pods.
Tomorrow’s WASDE report estimates are expecting a reduction in new crop ending stocks due to expectations for a small reduction in the yield estimate of 52.0 bpa.
Yesterday, another soybean sale was reported to China of 9.2 mb for the 23/24 marketing year.
Wheat is trading slightly higher along with corn and soybeans ahead of the WASDE report but mainly has been stuck in a trading range over the past 4 days.
The Dow Jones pre-report survey doesn’t show much change expected in the USDA’s estimate of world wheat production, but changes could occur in China and India.
Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture is seeking to buy a total of 93,972 mmt of food quality wheat from the US and Canada in a tender that will close on August 10.
In France, harvesting of soft-wheat fields has been postponed due to very heavy rainfall, and the quality is expected to decline.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly higher this morning as prices found support yesterday at the 4.90 area in December futures and some short covering kicked in.
Corn has not wanted to drop much further in price despite the frequent rains lately and improving yield estimates which is a good sign.
This morning’s radar is showing rain in Kansas and western Iowa and fronts that are expected to move into Missouri, Ohio, and Tennessee later in the day.
DTN’s Digital Yield Tour continued yesterday and pegged corn yields for Illinois at 197 bpa, a massive jump from the previous guess of 140 bpa in June thanks to the rain. Indiana is expected at 191 bpa.
Soybeans have also rebounded after touching support at the 100-day moving average. Nov has moved over 25 cents higher after meeting support yesterday morning. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher as well.
Day two of the DTN yield tour showed estimates of 60.2 bpa for Illinois, 58.8 for Indiana, and 58.7 for Ohio. If the yield estimate for Illinois holds, it would be a new record high, a further testament to the significance of August rains.
The average trade guess for Friday’s USDA report is a soybean yield of 51.2 bpa which is very close to DTN’s guess of 51.0.
November soybean prices in China are holding the highest levels of the year with the last trade at the equivalent of $17.85 a bushel. This has helped export demand from the US.
Wheat is trading lower this morning but like corn and soybeans, has found some support above the lows in early May. Winter wheat harvest is making rallies difficult.
Friday’s USDA report will give updates of US wheat production, but big changes aren’t expected. The WASDE report will update production estimates.
Ukraine has said that if Russia continues to target Ukrainian ports and export routes that they would begin picking targets that would “prevent their waters from being blocked”.
Ukraine’s 23/24 grain exports have totaled 2.76 mmt for far in the June/July season, but exports have been affected since Russia stepped up their attacks on export routes.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower again this morning after recent rains added pressure and the crop progress report showed an improvement in crop ratings.
Crop progress showed corns good to excellent rating improving by 2 points to 57%, above the average trade guess. 47% of corn is doughing and 93% is silking.
Corn inspections yesterday totaled 14.8 mb which brought total inspections for 22/23 to 1.3486 bb, down 33% from the previous year.
Brazil’s winter corn harvest is now 64% complete as of August 3 compared with 55% complete a week earlier but 80% last year. The winter corn production estimate was raised to 105.6 mmt.
Soybeans are lower again this morning with both soy products lower as rains help the crop during pod fill. November soybeans broke below the 100-day moving average.
DTN’s Digital Yield Tour has pegged the US soybean yield at 51 bpa which may not be so far off with all the rain expected during August.
Yesterday’s crop progress saw soybean good to excellent ratings increase beyond the average trade guess with an improvement of 2 points to 54%. Illinois improved by 12 points to 58%.
Yesterday there was another flash sale of soybeans to China of 4.85 mb for 23/24 which follows a recent string of sales and points to an improvement in demand despite Brazil.
Wheat is trading lower this morning after yesterday’s small rally as war in Ukraine escalated. French wheat was down 1% this morning and the US often watches that market at the beginning of the day.
Russia sent more missiles to eastern Ukraine overnight but traders are accustomed to this news so far, but now that they backed out of the grain deal, Russia is having more difficulty shipping grain as their insurance costs increase.
Yesterday’s crop progress showed spring wheat decline by 1 point to 41% good to excellent while the harvest is at 11%. The winter wheat harvest is 87% complete vs 80% last week.
Russian wheat exports for 23/24 are estimated at 48.1 mmt by SovEcon which is up from 47.2 mmt, but shipping issues may put a dent in that number.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading relatively unchanged this morning as news that Ukraine’s attacks against Russia have ramped up offset the news that most of the Corn Bely received significant rains over the weekend.
On Friday, Ukraine attacked a Russian naval ship and then followed that up with attacks on an oil tanker and two bridges leading into Crimea. Russia attacked more Ukrainian grain ports along the Danube River.
Over the weekend, beneficial rains fell in South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana, with more rain forecast over the eastern Corn Belt today.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds exiting some of their long position by selling 9,862 contracts leaving them net long 16,741 contracts.
Soybeans are sharply lower to begin the day with both soy products lower as well as a result of the beneficial weekend rains.
These August rains could not have come at a better time following the heat and dryness and could really set the crop up with better yields as the crop starts to fill pods.
The prices of soy products have not been falling as much as the prices of soybeans, so crush incentives remain profitable which is good for domestic demand.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds exiting long positions and selling 26,246 contracts bringing their net long position down to 94,493 contracts.
Wheat is having the most positive reaction to the escalation of fighting between Russia and Ukraine over the weekend with both Chicago and KC wheat higher.
As Ukraine begins to target Russian naval infrastructure near ports, trade may be concerned that Ukraine will target Russian export infrastructure which would shake up the world supply of available wheat.
Russia has said that JPMorgan has stopped processing payments for the Russian Agriculture Bank and Russia is pressuring Washington to step in.
Last week’s CFTC report showed funds adding to their net short position by 10,096 contracts leaving them net short 50,428 contracts.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher after a Russian warship was damaged in a Ukrainian attack on the Novorossiysk naval base in Russia near the Black Sea.
The Russian ship that was attacked was offshore of a Russian port that also exports grain, and the port was briefly closed to shipping.
The Brazilian 23/24 corn crop is now expected to be 139.1 mmt compared to the previous year of 135.4 mmt.
Dryness and heat are fueling uncertainty for Argentina’s next corn crop as soil moisture levels remain low and the forecast doesn’t contain much rain.
Soybeans are trading higher this morning along with corn and wheat after Ukraine’s attack. Sep soybean meal is slightly lower while deferred contracts and soybean oil are higher.
The Black Sea attack has given some support, but yesterday’s good export sales and the export activity of soybeans sold to China has been friendly.
Brazil’s 23/24 soybean crop is now being estimated at a whopping 165.9 mmt compared to 157.3 mmt the previous year.
Palm oil stocks in Malaysia are seen surging to five month highs as production reaches the highest levels in seven months. Exports have increased as well.
Wheat is trading higher after last nights attack on the Russian warship. Trade may grow concerned not just about Ukrainian exports but also Russian exports if Ukraine decides to start damaging their grain infrastructure.
Floods have hit China’s grain belt as the storms following Doksuri head northeast. In the crop growing region of Jilin, 19 inches of rain have fallen in the past 3 days.
Ukraine’s 23/24 grain exports for August were up 29% from last year at almost 2.4 mmt, but those numbers are expected to fall as shipping lanes become unusable.
Russia is signaling that it will offer cheaper grain exports to countries that have been friendlier and have not imposed sanctions.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading unchanged to lower on a lack of fresh news and with traders focusing on the forecast which is wet and cool over the next two weeks.
Yesterday’s ethanol production report was a highlight with production being the best on this date compared to the past five years. Stocks fell on good demand.
The average estimate for today’s export sales in corn is 658k tons, but may be less as export demand has been very sluggish.
Yesterday evening, StoneX revised their estimates for US corn yields higher to 177 bpa, a lofty estimate, but below the USDA’s last estimate of 177.5 bpa.
Soybeans are higher this morning after yesterday’s sharp selloff in anticipation of the export sales report which will reflect a solid number of flash sales to China and unknown destinations that occurred recently.
Soybean meal is trading higher this morning while soybean oil is lower on pressure from crude oil and world veg oil prices.
The average trade guess for today’s export sales report is 2,115k tons which would be one of the strongest weeks the US has seen in a awhile.
While StoneX increased their estimate for the corn yield, they surprisingly lowered their estimate for the soybean yield to 50.5 bpa despite the friendly August forecast.
Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago and Minn slightly higher and KC wheat lower despite more attacks on Ukraine’s port cities.
Today’s export sales report is expected to show another slow week for wheat with the average trade guess at 300k tons as Russia dominates global sales.
Vladimir Putin seems to be floating the idea of reinstating the Black Sea grain deal but only if their requirements are met, but last time they renewed the deal they still made it difficult for Ukraine to get ships moving.
India is seeking to import 9 mmt of wheat from Russia in an attempt to boost their domestic stockpiles and fight rising prices in the country.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
December corn is trading slightly higher but has backed off of gains in the overnight that were caused by a new attack by Russia on Ukraine’s Danube port.
The 7-day forecast has turned wetter since yesterday with nearly the entire Corn Belt and northwestern Plains expected to receive a good drink.
The June Crushings report showed that corn used in ethanol production was 441.5 mb, up slightly from May and in line with expectations. Ethanol margins have improved since June.
Slovakia is planning to expand its capacity for Ukrainian grain transit with its rail border crossings, but Russia seems intent on targeting Ukrainian grain storage and transportation.
Soybeans are trading lower this morning along with soybean meal and oil as trade focuses almost entirely on the August forecast which is showing much cooler and wetter conditions.
If this favorable two week forecast holds up, it will be difficult for soybeans to rally very much as the conditions will significantly impact yields.
June soybean crush was released and showed 174.6 mb crushed, slightly higher than a year ago but below trade expectations.
Ukrainian vegetable oil exports totaled 549,400 mt in July, 7% higher than the previous month, but now with exports nearly impossible, that number should be much lower this month.
Wheat is trading higher this morning although it did back off highs from overnight which were also caused by the attack on Ukraine’s Danube port.
Traders have become a bit numb to attacks on Ukrainian ports at this point, and although the market might rally, focus quickly turns back to winter wheat harvest and weather.
The quarterly flour milling report was released and all wheat ground for flour was at 222 mb, down 2% from the 1st quarter grind and down 4% from the 2nd quarter of 2022.
The US has heard rumors that Russia is prepared to return to talks on renegotiating the Black Sea grain deal, but there is no evidence yet.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading unchanged to slightly lower this morning as temperatures will remain mild and rain chances will increase for much of the Midwest through this weekend.
Crop conditions released Monday afternoon reported US corn good to excellent ratings at 55% down 2% from last week and down 6% from the same week last year.
84% of the US corn crop was in the pollination stage of production as of Sunday, this is 2% ahead of the five-year average.
December 2023 corn futures were 18-1/4 cents higher in the month of July.
Soybeans are slightly higher this morning as prices look to rebound after Monday’s sharply lower trade.
Private exporters reported the sale of 132,000 tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year on Monday. This continued the trend of export sales from last week.
US soybeans were rated 52% good to excellent as of Sunday July 30th, this was down 2% from last weeks rating and 8% below ratings the same week a year ago.
50% of the US soybean crop was setting pods according to Monday’s crop progress report, above normal precipitation forecast for the entire Midwest into mid-August should aid in filling pods.
Wheat futures are lower across the board again this morning with Chicago futures leading the way lower.
US Spring wheat condition ratings fell 7% from last week coming in at 42% good to excellent as of Sunday July 30th, this is down from 70% in the same week last year.
US winter wheat harvest was 80% complete as of this week, this is 3% behind the five-year average.
In the week ending July 27th the US inspected 581,000 tons of wheat, this up 220,000 tons from the previous week.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower this morning as temperatures begin to decline from last week’s highs and rain chances for the Corn Belt improve over the next 7 days.
Crop conditions will be released this afternoon and between last week’s heat and dryness, it is expected that corn’s good to excellent rating will fall from last week’s 57%.
In Brazil, the corn harvest is advancing quickly which is putting pressure on prices globally. As of July 22, 47.9% of the national crop has been harvested.
Last week, funds were buyers of corn and bought 73,529 contracts which took them from a net short position to a net long position of 26,603 contracts.
Soybeans are significantly lower this morning along with soybean meal and oil as the 8 to 14-day forecast is showing a cooler, wetter pattern that would be beneficial for yields.
In Brazil, demand for soybeans internationally has been rising with their discounted prices. Processors there are showing higher needs for the raw material in the spot market because of expectations for higher demand abroad.
Brazilian 2024 soybean meal production is expected to reach 42.3 mmt, 3% above the previous year. Total soy crushing is seen at 55 mmt for 2024.
Friday’s CFTC data showed funds as buyers last week, increasing their let long position by 24,925 contracts to 120,739 contracts.
Wheat futures are lower this morning with Chicago leading the way despite more military activity reported in the way of a strike on another grain facility in Kherson.
Traders seem unmoved by happenings in Russia and Ukraine lately and as a result, much of the war premium has dropped off of futures prices.
SovEcon raised the Russian wheat crop forecast to 87.1 mmt as yields are now expected to improve. The previous projection for the Russian crop was 86.8 mmt, and this news is likely adding bearish pressure.
Friday’s CFTC showed funds buying back 14,086 contracts which still maintains a short position, but decreased it to 40,332 contracts.
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