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Opening Update: July 7, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’23 495.25 -3.75
DEC ’23 501.5 -5
DEC ’24 501.5 -3.5

Soybeans

AUG ’23 1444.25 -4
NOV ’23 1333.75 -5.75
NOV ’24 1240 -3.75

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’23 645.75 -12.25
DEC ’23 663 -13.5
JUL ’24 692 -12.75

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’23 822.75 -21
DEC ’23 826.75 -18
JUL ’24 798 6

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’23 843.5 -14.5
DEC ’23 851.75 -13
SEP ’24 805.5 5.5

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4444 -3

Crude Oil

SEP ’23 72.05 0.26

Gold

OCT ’23 1941 6.4

  • Corn is starting the day lower following yesterday’s short covering rally as it struggles to gain positive footing with mostly favorable weather forecasts and the surprise jump in acres.
  •  The front moving through the Midwest has produced some moisture, but amounts have largely been disappointing.  Temperatures are expected to stay mild with the potential for more showers next week. 
  • The latest release of the US Drought Monitor indicated that 67% of the corn crop remains in drought conditions, down 3% from the week prior.  With more rain in the forecast for the Corn Belt, it could be expected to fall further.
  • Brazil’s corn basis levels have seen some significant improvement with harvest only 20% complete, and active soybean sales taking precedence to make room for the safrinha corn crop.  This improvement has likely added some support to US corn prices, and though they remain 25 – 35 cents/ bu. above Brazil, the gap has narrowed.
  • Yesterday the managed funds were active buyers in the corn market, purchasing upwards of 8,000 contracts.  They are currently estimated to be long 26,000 contracts.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning as traders continue to take a breather and reduce long positions.  Like soybeans, soybean meal is also lower this morning, while bean oil is higher.
  • The front moving through the Midwest has produced some moisture, but amounts have largely been disappointing.  Temperatures are expected to stay mild with the potential for more showers next week.  Weather conditions in the Northern Plains are mostly favorable and may see some isolated showers over the next five days with cooler temperatures to help ease crop stress.
  • The area of the US soybean crop that is in drought areas dropped 3% to 60%. While is still a significant area, given the recent rain in throughout the Cornbelt, it is expected to drop further.
  • The managed funds were active sellers in yesterday’s session, reducing their long position by an estimated 6,500 contracts.  They are now estimated to be long 86,500 contracts. 

  • The wheat market is mostly lower this morning in all three classes, with deferred contracts in K.C. and Minneapolis trading higher.
  •  Weather conditions in the Northern Plains are mostly favorable and may see some isolated showers over the next five days with cooler temperatures to help ease crop stress.
  • The Central and Southern Plains will continue to see showers and thunderstorms over the next week with mild temperatures.  Though the conditions are largely favorable, the rain may slow the wheat harvest.
  • Managed Funds were net sellers yesterday in the wheat market, adding an estimated 6,000 contracts to their short position, which is now estimated to be short 61,000 contracts.
  • Ukraine’s Ag Ministry reported current 23/24 grain exports at 497k tons, which compares to 318k tons for 2022.  Of the total, 177k is reported to be wheat and 273k tons of corn, most of which was exported via the Black Sea.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: July 6, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’23 490 4.75
DEC ’23 497.5 4
DEC ’24 500.75 1.75

Soybeans

AUG ’23 1473.25 4.5
NOV ’23 1358 3
NOV ’24 1252.25 0.5

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’23 666.75 -7.5
DEC ’23 683 -7.25
JUL ’24 708 -7

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’23 853.25 7
DEC ’23 852 7.5
JUL ’24 799.75 7.75

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’23 863.25 5.75
DEC ’23 868.25 4.75
SEP ’24 800 24

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4465 -18.75

Crude Oil

SEP ’23 72.13 0.25

Gold

OCT ’23 1950.4 4.2

  • Corn is beginning the day higher but is still near its lowest prices of the year after the USDA estimated 94.1 million acres planted.
  • Rains are currently falling in southern Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle and the rains are expected to move east over the Corn Belt in the next five days.
  • Areas North of the Corn Belt are expected to remain drier, but temperatures will also be lower giving some relief.
  • Brazil has reportedly harvested 20% of their second crop corn and based on yield data, analysts raised production estimates again.

  • Soybeans are trading slightly higher this morning apart from the front month which is lower, while soybean meal trades higher and soybean oil is lower.
  • The rains falling in Kansas are forecast to move into the southern Midwest and are expected to miss most of Missouri, but the 6 to 10 day forecast looks wet for the central Corn Belt.
  • The USDA’s forecast for 83.5 million acres of beans has kept prices elevated, and next week’s WASDE will likely add to the bullishness with a small ending stocks number.
  • Exports have been poor with Brazil keeping a firm grasp on the competition, but US soybeans are getting support from renewed soybean oil demand.

  • Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago lower bur KC and Minn higher as rain in Kansas is expected to delay harvest for another couple of days.
  • Russia attacked the city of  Lviv overnight and Ukrainian forces have said that Russia is making slow progress in taking back eastern Ukraine.
  • Russia’s wheat crop estimates were raised by 2.5 mmt and are now at 85.7 mmt on goods weather.
  • The French 2023 soft wheat yield is seen at 5% above the 10-year average and was helped by good sowing conditions and frequent rains in early spring. 

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: July 5, 2023

Markets are closed until 8:30 am Central Time

  • On Monday, corn traded higher throughout the day before ultimately settling lower on continued pressure from the bearish USDA report.
  • The USDA said that the planting estimate for corn was 94.1 million acres which would increase ending stocks and has caused selling in corn futures.
  • On Friday, crop progress was released showing the corn crop rated 51% good to excellent, up just one point from a week ago. Illinois, Iowa, and Indiana showed improvement from a week ago.
  • Rains fell in the western Plains yesterday, and Kansas and Missouri are expecting heavy rain amounts over the next five days, and good rain in the Corn Belt as a whole.

  • On the flip side of corn, soybeans ended higher on Friday with continued support from the USDA report with planting estimates at just 83.5 million acres.
  • August soybean oil closed at a new high for the year on Monday as demand picks up. Yesterday, both canola and rapeseed traded higher.
  • Despite the recent beneficial rains in the driest areas of the Corn Belt, crop progress showed soybeans falling by 1% in the good to excellent rating and is now at 50%, the lowest rating for this time of year since 2012.
  • With soybean futures in the US surging, China has taken notice, and September beans on the Dalian exchange closed 2.9% higher yesterday to a four month high.

  • Wheat ended Monday lower after being pulled down by falling corn prices and poor export demand.
  • Yesterday, September milling wheat closed up 0.8% and early today those prices were up another 1.6%, so it is possible that US futures open higher.
  • On Monday, the USDA said that 37% of winter wheat was harvested which is down from a five year average of 46% for this time of year. Winter wheat good to excellent ratings were steady at 40%.
  • Spring wheat good to excellent ratings slipped 2% to 48% good to excellent, and in North Dakota, ratings slipped from 49% to 40%.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: July 3, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn
SEP ’23 491.25 2.75
DEC ’23 496.5 1.75
DEC ’24 504.25 7.5
Soybeans
AUG ’23 1495 53
NOV ’23 1378.75 35.5
NOV ’24 1242.25 35.5
Chicago Wheat
SEP ’23 647.75 -3.25
DEC ’23 665.75 -3.5
JUL ’24 696 -1.75
K.C. Wheat
SEP ’23 803.5 3.5
DEC ’23 805.75 5.5
JUL ’24 767.25 -1
Mpls Wheat
SEP ’23 822.75 5.75
DEC ’23 822.5 -4
SEP ’24 778 -16
S&P 500
SEP ’23 4488.5 0.25
Crude Oil
SEP ’23 71.27 0.49
Gold
OCT ’23 1939.5 -9

  • Corn is trading higher this morning despite last week’s bearish USDA report but is likely following soybeans today with their large gains.
  • Friday’s corn planting estimate was 94.1 million acres by the USDA, the most since 2013. This makes it more likely for 23/24 ending stocks to rise.
  • The Corn Belt received significant rains in most areas with some of those areas in the most need, so today’s crop progress report will show if good to excellent ratings start moving back up.
  • Funds were net sellers as of June 28 reducing their net long position by 5,454 contracts reducing it to 52,845 contracts.

  • Soybeans are continuing their ascent this morning on the heels of Friday’s very bullish USDA report. Both soybean meal and soybean oil are significantly higher.
  • The USDA’s acreage report on Friday said that only 83.5 million acres of soybeans are expected to be planted in 2023, but 8.2 million acres of those aren’t planted yet and may not get planted.
  • The National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration issued a new Seasonal Drought Outlook on Friday which showed drought persisting but improving in the central Midwest while worsening in Wisconsin and Michigan.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of soybeans by 22,530 contracts, increasing their net long position to 99,480 contracts.

  • Wheat is trading lower this morning despite gains in both corn and soybeans, and KC wheat is leading the way lower as weather improves and exports remain stagnant.
  • Friday’s report which showed more corn acres being planted would give the US a surplus of corn to feed that would cut into wheat use for feed and is a bearish factor.
  • Over the weekend, ABC News reported that Ukraine’s nuclear power plant was doing drills to prepare for possible emergency radiation exposure after the government said that Russia planted explosives at the power plant.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back a big chunk of their short position. They bought back 31,966 contracts, reducing their net short position to 52,168 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: June 30, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’23 582 1
DEC ’23 531.25 2.75
DEC ’24 508.75 1.75
Soybeans
JUL ’23 1509.75 26.75
NOV ’23 1282.25 16.5
NOV ’24 1214.75 8.75
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’23 657.5 4.5
SEP ’23 672 4.5
JUL ’24 712.25 3.75
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’23 814 19.75
SEP ’23 808.5 8.5
JUL ’24 780 6.25
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’23 807.5 3.75
SEP ’23 834 8.5
SEP ’24 794 0.75
S&P 500
SEP ’23 4451.5 15.75
Crude Oil
AUG ’23 69.79 -0.07
Gold
AUG ’23 1913.5 -4.4

  • Corn is trading slightly higher this morning after yesterday’s Derecho winds across the Midwest that brought rain but strong winds and large hail as well.
  • There were 64 reports of large hail yesterday and 477 reports of wind damage with three counties in Illinois reporting gusts over 100 mph.
  • Despite the storm and damage, Illinois was in desperate need of rain which it received a decent amount of.
  • The planted acreage report will be released today and trade estimates are guessing that corn acres will be at 91.85 million acres, down 150,000 acres from March intentions, some of these acres may be going towards soybeans.

  • Soybeans are trading higher with July leading and both soybean meal and oil higher as well. Yesterday’s storm and the damage it caused is helping futures out today.
  • Soybean oil has gotten support from a rise in world veg oil prices with palm oil up today, and concerns about smaller southeast Asian palm oil production.
  • Today’s USDA acreage report is expected to show a small increase in soybean acres with likely increases in Minnesota and North Dakota. Stocks are expected to be tighter.
  • Argentina has completed their soybean harvest with yields coming in 45% less than normal, another bullish factor today.

  • Wheat is trading higher this morning with KC leading the way up after forecasts turned slightly drier for spring wheat areas.
  • The USDA acreage report is expecting to show slightly lower spring wheat acreage and about 200,000 acres of declines in all wheat. Wheat stocks are forecast to be 611 mb compared to current ending stocks of 598 mb.
  • Global wheat production is now estimated higher at 786 mmt from 783 mmt, but stockpile estimates are expected to fall to 264 mmt from 271 mmt as consumption expands.
  • Ukraine’s wheat crop is being estimated at 17.9 mmt which is down 12% year over year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: June 29, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’23 594.5 4.5
DEC ’23 536.5 -0.25
DEC ’24 513.5 -0.5
Soybeans
JUL ’23 1450.75 -0.25
NOV ’23 1263.25 -1.75
NOV ’24 1204 -3.5
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’23 656 0.25
SEP ’23 669.25 -0.5
JUL ’24 712.75 0
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’23 802.75 2
SEP ’23 806.25 0.5
JUL ’24 785 1.25
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’23 808.75 5
SEP ’23 820.25 2
SEP ’24 793.25 -16.75
S&P 500
SEP ’23 4430.75 13.25
Crude Oil
AUG ’23 69.87 0.31
Gold
AUG ’23 1917.8 -4.4

  • Corn is trading relatively unchanged this morning after two days of sharp selloffs. July is slightly higher while deferred contracts are about a cent lower.
  • Yesterday, a front moved through Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois, but 24-hour precipitation totals showed that most areas received about 1/4 inch.
  • There is still significant rain in the 5-day forecast with large amounts expected in the parts of Illinois that are the driest.
  • US ethanol stocks rose by 0.8% to 22.979 mln bbl with analysts having expected 22.755 mln bbl.

  • Soybeans are trading slightly lower with losses in soybean meal but gains in July and Aug soybean oil. Yesterday’s rain was beneficial, but the important weather is still ahead.
  • Brazilian soy exports have reached up to 14.2 mmt in June compared to the 14.3 mmt forecast the previous week as the world looks to Brazil for soybeans.
  • Brazil’s crop is now expected to reach a record breaking 156 mmt of soybeans harvested, far above the initial analyst guesses earlier this year.
  • Friday morning’s acreage report is expected to show soybean acres up slightly from May intentions with average trade guesses at 87.67 ma, up from the previous estimate.

  • Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago and KC slightly lower but Minn around 3 cents higher as the market trades quietly ahead of Friday’s planted acreage report.
  • Friday’s USDA stocks report is expected to show June 1 wheat stocks down near 335 mb vs 611 mb a year ago.
  • Despite support from the anticipated end of the Black Sea grain deal next month, Ukraine is now expected to raise a wheat crop as high as 24.4 mmt compared to estimates ranging between 16 to 18 mmt.
  • Canadian wheat planting was only slightly lower than previously expected at 26.9 million acres with canola at 22.1.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: June 28, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’23 625.75 2.75
DEC ’23 551.5 -9.5
DEC ’24 517.25 -5.25
Soybeans
JUL ’23 1485.5 -9.5
NOV ’23 1276.5 -17.75
NOV ’24 1219 -13.25
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’23 678 -7
SEP ’23 692 -7
JUL ’24 728 -8.75
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’23 827.25 -10.5
SEP ’23 830.25 -9.25
JUL ’24 810 4.5
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’23 825.5 -7.75
SEP ’23 837.5 -7.75
SEP ’24 810 -15.5
S&P 500
SEP ’23 4415.25 -3.5
Crude Oil
AUG ’23 67.7 0
Gold
AUG ’23 1916.6 -7.2

  • Corn is trading lower again this morning after yesterday’s selloff which was due to an apparent shift in the weather pattern to wetter.
  • First notice day for July corn is on Friday, and so far it has not lost nearly as much value as the deferred months with on hand supplies tight.
  • Current radar is showing some rain in northern Minnesota, eastern Iowa, and northwest Illinois. Wider coverage is being forecast over the next 5 days.
  • Ukraine’s 2023 grain crop is now being seen at 42.5 mmt, down from 53 mmt in 2022 with 21.1 mmt being corn. 

  • Soybeans, soybean meal and oil are all lower this morning with weather as the main bearish factor. The 5-day forecast is showing good coverage for the entire Corn Belt.
  • Brazilian soy exports have reached up to 14.2 mmt in June compared to the 14.3 mmt forecast the previous week as the world looks to Brazil for soybeans.
  • Brazil’s crop is now expected to reach a record breaking 156 mmt of soybeans harvested, far above the initial analyst guesses earlier this year.
  • Friday morning’s acreage report is expected to show soybean acres up slightly from May intentions with average trade guesses at 87.67 ma, up from the previous estimate.

  • Wheat is lower again this morning pulled down by lower corn and an improved weather forecast.
  • While it appears less likely that the Black Sea grain deal will be extended next month, two Ukrainian ports have continued to load ships including two wheat vessels in the last week.
  • In the US, HRW wheat conditions have been improving, and the spring wheat crop has gotten beneficial rains in North Dakota.
  • The EU’s soft wheat exports have risen by 11% year over year at 30.8 mmt, compared with 27.7 mmt the previous period with Morocco as a leading destination. 

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: June 27, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’23 628.5 -8.75
DEC ’23 569.75 -18.5
DEC ’24 529 -9.25

Soybeans

JUL ’23 1502.25 -18.75
NOV ’23 1288.25 -34.75
NOV ’24 1224.75 -25.5

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’23 702 -22.25
SEP ’23 716 -22.25
JUL ’24 752.5 -20

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’23 851.25 -15.25
SEP ’23 851.75 -16.5
JUL ’24 821.75 -8

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’23 855 -7.25
SEP ’23 863.25 -9.25
SEP ’24 825.5 5.5

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4377 6.75

Crude Oil

AUG ’23 68.41 -0.96

Gold

AUG ’23 1930.8 -3

  • Corn is trading sharply lower this morning despite yesterday’s poor crop progress results as weather patterns turn wetter.
  • In corn, good to excellent ratings fell 5% from the previous week and are now at just 50%. 4% of corn is silking which is in line with the 5 year average.
  • Rain forecasts overnight have changed to include SE Nebraska, southern Iowa, and southern Illinois, areas of the Corn Belt that have been in the most need of moisture.
  • The June acreage report will be released on Friday and is expected to show a small decrease in acres at 91.85 ma which would be down from 92 ma the previous month.

  • Soybeans and both soybean meal and oil are lower this morning along with corn, again despite poor crop ratings and thanks to improved weather forecasts.
  • Soybean’s good to excellent ratings fell by 3% to 51% which is the lowest rating for this time of year since 1988. Anticipated rains could bring the crop back to life.
  • Friday morning’s acreage report is expected to show soybean acres up slightly from May intentions with average trade guesses at 87.67 ma, up from 87.45 ma.
  • Yesterday’s soybean inspections were poor as Brazil keeps control of the export market with their cheaper soybeans.

  • Wheat is lower with the rest of the grain complex with Chicago futures leading the way as the wet forecast dominates today’s trade.
  • Winter wheat good to excellent ratings actually increased by 2% to 40%, but spring wheat fell by 1% to 50%. Winter wheat is now 24% harvested vs 15% last week.
  • While it is looking less and less likely that Russia will extend the Black Sea deal, markets appear uncaring and are focused on US weather.
  • Friday’s stocks report will estimate the final ending stocks of 22/23 and the average trade guess is 611 mb, down from 698 mb last year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: June 26, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’23 634 3.25
DEC ’23 587.75 -0.25
DEC ’24 535.5 2.25

Soybeans

JUL ’23 1501.25 6.75
NOV ’23 1320.5 10.5
NOV ’24 1245 4

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’23 752 18.75
SEP ’23 765.25 18.75
JUL ’24 783 12.5

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’23 878 19
SEP ’23 879.25 17.5
JUL ’24 840 15.5

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’23 876.5 11.75
SEP ’23 886.75 13
SEP ’24 820 0

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4383.75 -5.25

Crude Oil

AUG ’23 69.56 0.4

Gold

AUG ’23 1942 12.4

  • July corn is trading slightly higher while the deferred contracts are lower following weekend rains and beginning and end of a military coup in Russia.
  • This weekend, beneficial rains fell in a good portion of Iowa and Indiana, but only covered the Northern portion of Illinois.
  • The 7-day forecast shows wide coverage over the Corn Belt, but those rains are slated to fall over the weekend again which is still a ways off and will need to materialize.
  • Funds were net buyers of corn last week increasing their net long position by 56,000 contracts to 58,000 contracts.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning along with both soybean meal and soybean oil due to worries about veg oil exports from Ukraine being closed off.
  • As soybean conditions worsen in the US and drive domestic prices higher, it has also had an effect on global markets with Brazilian prices rising as well.
  • India’s oilseed exports are expected to grow by 10 to 15% this year as orders from southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa increase.
  • Funds were net buyers of soybeans last week and their net long position was increased to 77,000 contracts.

  • Wheat is trading higher this morning after the Wagner group in Russia began a military coup this weekend and marched towards Moscow, but once they were a few hours from the city, the leader agreed to leave for Belarus in exchange for charges being dropped against him.
  • The begin and end of this insurrection combined with the apparent end of the Ukrainian grain deal next month has been supportive of prices.
  • China has been experiencing excess rainfall in their wheat growing regions which has been another bullish factor.
  • Funds were buyers of wheat last week by 29,296 contracts, reducing their net short position to 84,134 contracts, still a very short position.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: June 23, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’23 646.25 -14.25
DEC ’23 606.25 -14.5
DEC ’24 549.5 -6.25

Soybeans

JUL ’23 1479.75 -20.75
NOV ’23 1319 -20.5
NOV ’24 1239.5 -9.5

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’23 729.5 -9.5
SEP ’23 743.5 -9.25
JUL ’24 767.75 -12.5

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’23 859.75 -11.25
SEP ’23 863 -9.5
JUL ’24 829 -12.25

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’23 872.75 -7.25
SEP ’23 879 -5.5
SEP ’24 821 4.75

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4405.25 -18.5

Crude Oil

AUG ’23 68.66 -0.85

Gold

AUG ’23 1929 5.3

  • Corn is trading lower this morning as weather models have turned slightly wetter for the driest parts of Illinois and Iowa this weekend.
  • Illinois is currently the most in need of rain out of the bunch, but wide coverage will be needed and so far weekend rains have been spotty.
  • Argentina’s corn forecast has been cut by 5.5% due to poor yields after drought, and analysts have cut estimated production by 2 mmt to 34 mmt.
  • According to NOAA, US corn crops in drought areas have jumped to 64%, up 7% from the previous week.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning pulled lower by soybean meal while soybean oil trades slightly higher in the front months.
  • Wetter weather models have put pressure on soybeans, but the release of the Renewable Fuel Standard blending mandates was very negative for soybean oil and has dragged down the complex.
  • Estimates for soybean export sales are showing an average of 506k, but could be as low as 300k.
  • Forecasts for the Corn Belt over the next 6-10 days are showing above normal rain and near normal temperatures which could continue to put pressure on corn and soybeans.

  • Wheat is trading lower this morning as it follows moves in corn and has also met some technical resistance after being overbought.
  • There has been excess rainfall delaying harvest in Texas and Oklahoma and early yield results have not been very good so far.
  • The UN’s FAO is launching a program to clear mines from Ukrainian land so that small farms and rural families will be able to grow food.
  • France has begun harvesting its wheat crop and rain is forecast to improve in central France while remaining dry in northwestern France.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.