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Opening Update: August 25, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’23 470.75 -1.5
DEC ’23 486.75 -1.5
DEC ’24 508.25 -0.5

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1379.75 8
JAN ’24 1391.5 8
NOV ’24 1307.5 4.5

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’23 606 2
DEC ’23 634 2.25
JUL ’24 687.5 6.25

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’23 758.25 5.25
DEC ’23 768.5 6
JUL ’24 757 5

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’23 779 4.25
DEC ’23 803.75 4.5
SEP ’24 815.25 0

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4396.25 10.25

Crude Oil

OCT ’23 79.95 0.9

Gold

OCT ’23 1926 -2.5

  • Corn is trading slightly lower again this morning as prices struggle to gain traction despite hot and dry weather and slipping yields in Illinois and Minnesota.
  • The extreme heat is moving South today but solid rains are still a ways off in the forecast. The 7-day forecast is showing only light scatters of rain over the Corn Belt.
  • Pro Farmer wrapped up their tour of Iowa and Minnesota yesterday finding average yields of 182.8 bpa in Iowa which is below last year, and 181.34 bpa in Minnesota which is large decline from last year.
  • In Brazil, second crop corn harvest is still incomplete as they continue to receive rains that are causing delays, but the rains will be helpful for next month’s planting.

  • Soybeans are higher again this morning and are on track for a gain on the week. Soybean meal is slightly lower while soybean oil is higher.
  • Soybeans are gaining support from the extreme heat and rain that has been absent for over 10 days in the Midwest during crucial pod filling time.
  • Yesterday, the Pro Farmer tour was in Iowa and Minnesota and found pod counts in a 3×3 area in Iowa at 1,190.41 which is up from last year and the 3-year average. In Minnesota, counts were at 984.39 which was below last year and the 3-year average.
  • Yesterday, October soybean meal gained $11.10 which boosted the value of crushed soybeans and should keep processors buying cash beans.

  • Wheat is trading slightly higher this morning and December KC is actually on track for a slight gain this week. The Dec contracts of all three wheats held above their May lows which could be considered a small win.
  • These past few weeks in the news have shown plenty of attacks back and forth between Russia and Ukraine with Russia targeting grain facilities and Putin likely killing the Wagner group boss, but wheat prices had very little reaction to these headlines.
  • The dryness in the US is setting up for good harvest conditions and the spring wheat harvest for both the US and Canada should reach the halfway mark by Monday’s crop progress report.
  • Canada’s wheat crop estimates will be revised on Tuesday the 29th, and private analysts are expecting that number to be below the USDA estimate of 1.21 billion bushels.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: August 24, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’23 473.75 -2.5
DEC ’23 488.25 -2.25
DEC ’24 506.75 -1

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1366.75 6.25
JAN ’24 1377.75 6.75
NOV ’24 1296.5 1.5

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’23 612.75 0.25
DEC ’23 640.5 0.75
JUL ’24 689 1.75

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’23 754.25 -0.75
DEC ’23 763 -0.75
JUL ’24 751.25 -1.25

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’23 788.25 3.75
DEC ’23 807.5 4.25
SEP ’24 813.5 6

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4475.25 28.25

Crude Oil

OCT ’23 79.04 0.15

Gold

OCT ’23 1928 -1.9

  • Corn is trading lower this morning despite the heat and dry weather on the heels of the crop tour which showed better than expected yields in Illinois.
  • Pro Farmers crop tour wrapped up in Illinois yesterday with a lot of variability but the average yield pegged at 193.72 bpa which is above both last year and the 3-year average.
  • The heat is expected to peak today with temperatures cooling off in the following weeks. High 100’s are forecast for Nebraska and Illinois, but after the heat subsides, dry conditions are still expected for another two weeks.
  • The Argentinian grains exchange is expecting a dry start to their 23/24 corn season and planted corn is estimated at 7.3 million hectares which would be 2.8% times larger than the previous planting.

  • Soybeans and soybean meal are beginning the day higher while soybean oil trades lower but is still near its recent highs. The tight carryout and hot weather has been supportive of the soy complex.
  • The Pro Farmer tour finished its rounds of Illinois yesterday and found an average of soybean pod counts in a 3×3 area at 1,270.61 which is above a year ago and the 3-year average.
  • India’s June palm oil exports rose to 3.45 mmt from 2.23 mmt in May. Output fell to 4.42 mmt, and domestic consumption rose significantly from the previous month.
  • China is conducting trials on GMO soybeans and corn and surprise, yields were up to 11.6% higher in those trials. China has not yet approved commercial planting of GMO grains.

  • Wheat is relatively unchanged this morning as markets are unsure how to respond to the death of Wagner group’s boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin. First reactions are that it was an act of retaliation by Putin.
  • Without the Wagner groups military, Russia is not expected to be as effective in their war. With Russia the only real game in town for global wheat exports, and they at war, any disruption to their grain infrastructure could have massive impacts on world prices.
  • Putin has resumed talks to supply free wheat to 6 African countries in the amounts of between 25 and 50 thousand tons as humanitarian aid.
  • Agritel is expecting that French wheat exports will rise to 17 mmt in 23/24 compared to 16.4 mmt last season supported by strong sales within the EU.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: August 23, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’23 467.75 1.25
DEC ’23 480.75 1.25
DEC ’24 502.75 0.75

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1335.75 -10.25
JAN ’24 1346.25 -9.75
NOV ’24 1275.75 -8

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’23 601.75 0
DEC ’23 627.5 0
JUL ’24 674.75 1.25

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’23 737.25 -2.75
DEC ’23 745.75 -2
JUL ’24 736.5 -3.25

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’23 774 0.5
DEC ’23 792.75 1
SEP ’24 805 -2.5

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4405 5.75

Crude Oil

OCT ’23 78.44 -1.2

Gold

OCT ’23 1914.4 6.3

  • Corn is trading about a penny higher this morning but futures are still hovering around their lows despite crops dealing with stress from the heat.
  • The Corn Belt is forecast to miss much of the rain expected over the next 6 to 14 days, but temperatures are expected to cool down after Thursday giving the crop some relief.
  • The ProFarmer crop tour saw South Dakota with an average yield of 157.4 bpa, while estimates for Ohio came in around 172.4 bpa, similar to last year.
  • The gap between US and Brazilian corn has narrowed recently but FOB prices remain a bit cheaper in Brazil for August and September. US corn exports have been very slow with the main buyer being Mexico.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning along with both soy products lower as well. The crop tour has been finding pod counts higher than the previous year.
  • The crop tour completed its run through of Nebraska and Indiana yesterday and found pod counts in a 3×3 plot with an average of 1,160.02 in Nebraska and 1,309.96 in Indiana, both ahead of last year.
  • November soybeans on the Dalian exchange fell slightly today to the equivalent of $19.04 a bushel but remain near the yearly highs.
  • Cargill has agreed to buy plants from the Brazilian biodiesel maker Granol in an effort to expand its soybean production in South America.

  • Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago slightly higher, KC a bit lower, and Minn unchanged, all near their lowest prices of the year.
  • Russia and Ukraine hit each other with more drone attacks last night with Ukraine targeting Moscow and Russia again targeting grain facilities in Odesa and around the Danube River region.
  • Russia’s estimated wheat production has again been bumped up to 92.1 mmt from 87.1 mmt for 23/24, far above the USDA’s most recent estimate of 85 mmt.
  • Russia seems to be the only country with a strong wheat crop right now as Canada, India, Argentina, and Australia all struggling with various weather issues and Ukraine unable to export the grain they do have. 

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: August 22, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’23 470 0.75
DEC ’23 483 0.5
DEC ’24 507 0

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1358.75 -3
JAN ’24 1368.5 -3
NOV ’24 1293.75 -3

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’23 603.75 4.5
DEC ’23 630.75 5.25
JUL ’24 676.5 3.5

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’23 744.75 3.75
DEC ’23 752 3.75
JUL ’24 743.5 2.75

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’23 785 2.75
DEC ’23 802 3
SEP ’24 810.5 -8.75

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4432.25 19.75

Crude Oil

OCT ’23 79.67 -0.45

Gold

OCT ’23 1913.6 8.5

  • Corn is trading slightly higher this morning but is quiet as trade seems mostly unfazed by the hot and dry conditions.
  • Temperatures between the 90’s and 100’s will stretch as far north as South Dakota and Minnesota and as far east as Indiana and Kentucky before cooling off after Thursday.
  •  Yesterday’s crop progress showed good to excellent ratings for corn slipping by one point to 58% with 78% in the dough stage and 4% mature.
  • The Pro farmer crop tour in South Dakota yesterday saw corn yields averaging 157.4 bpa according to 91 samples taken. Last year, the average was 118.45 bpa.

  • Soybeans are trading slightly lower this morning and are getting pulled lower by lower soybean oil while soybean meal trades a bit higher.
  • The USDA kept the good to excellent rating steady at 59% good to excellent which is good considering the heat and dryness lately.
  • September soybeans on the Dalian exchange hit a new 2023 high today and are trading at the equivalent of $19.82 a bushel. This could explain the recent string of purchases from the US.
  • The Profarmer tour in South Dakota found an average of 1,013 pods within 3 square foot averages which is only slightly below the 3-year average. In Ohio, the counts came in at 1,049 pods.

  • All three wheat contracts are trading slightly higher this morning as prices try to find support among the lowest prices of the year.
  • Yesterday, prices fell after reports came out that Ukraine would be exporting grain through a new humanitarian corridor that hugs the coastline.
  • Yesterday afternoon, the USDA said that 96% of the winter wheat crop was harvested with work incomplete in Washington, Ohio, and Montana.
  • 39% of the spring wheat crop has been harvested which is below the 5-year average pace of 46%. For what is left, the good to excellent ratings were lowered from 42% to 38%.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: August 21, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’23 484 4.5
DEC ’23 497.5 4.5
DEC ’24 515.5 4.75

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1376.25 23
JAN ’24 1385.25 21.5
NOV ’24 1306 10.25

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’23 611.75 -1.5
DEC ’23 637.25 -1.75
JUL ’24 680.5 -2.75

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’23 749.25 -4.25
DEC ’23 756.25 -4.5
JUL ’24 750 0.25

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’23 799 -3.75
DEC ’23 814.5 -3.25
SEP ’24 819.25 11

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4402.25 19.5

Crude Oil

OCT ’23 81.49 0.83

Gold

OCT ’23 1899.5 1.4

  • Corn is trading higher this morning but has backed off its overnight highs as the dry and hot forecast continues and stresses the crop.
  • The forecast for the next 7 days offers more rain chances in the Corn Belt than the previous week but is expected to be light, and temperatures are expected to drop later in the week.
  • According to Conab, Brazil’s second crop corn harvest was 72% complete as of August 12 which was down from 86% this time a year ago. Rains have been delaying their progress.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed non commercials as sellers of corn last week by 45,924 contracts increasing their net short position to 72,580 contracts.

  • Soybeans are significantly higher this morning along with soybean meal and oil as the hot and dry weather affects soybeans most directly as they fill pods.
  • While Chinese economic growth struggles with deflation and poor economic data, their food demand remains robust with November beans on the Dalian exchange trading at the equivalent of $19.11 a bushel, a new high for this year.
  • Chinese imports from the US fell by 63% from the previous year as they source their soybeans from Brazil.
  • Friday’s CFTC data showed funds as sellers of soybeans by 13,362 contracts as of August 15 reducing their net long position to 50,719 contracts.

  • While corn and soybeans trend higher, wheat is lower and has struggled to gain momentum on poor demand that is effecting global prices.
  • Ukraine is attempting to use a new “humanitarian corridor” to export grains that will hug the western coastline near Romania and Bulgaria.
  • Egypt’s total consumption of wheat is expected to reach between 19 and 20 mmt. They are expected to import 10 mmt to meet demand which is 50% of their total consumption.
  • Friday’s CFTC data showed funds piling into their short position increasing it by 10,195 contracts, leaving them net short 65,590 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: August 18, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’23 476.5 3.5
DEC ’23 488.75 3
DEC ’24 507.75 -0.5

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1345 15
JAN ’24 1355.75 15
NOV ’24 1291 7.25

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’23 599.5 10
DEC ’23 625.75 10.5
JUL ’24 675.25 11

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’23 742.25 9.25
DEC ’23 749.75 8.25
JUL ’24 741.5 6.25

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’23 794.75 7
DEC ’23 810.75 7.25
SEP ’24 808.25 0.75

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4370.25 -14.25

Crude Oil

OCT ’23 79.76 -0.14

Gold

OCT ’23 1904.3 7.6

  • Corn is trading higher this morning in response to the new 7-day forecast which is showing virtually no rain for the Corn Belt or Midwest and above normal temperatures.
  • December corn futures seem to have found support near the 4.80 level and are technically oversold. They may have found a temporary bottom.
  • While most of the Corn Belt received beneficial rains recently, soil moisture maps have shown that there are topsoil deficits in parts of Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana.
  • Argentinian corn production is seen as maintained at 34 mmt, and 90% of the crop has been harvested.

  • Soybeans are higher this morning and are headed for a third consecutively higher close as weather forecasts stay hot and dry into pod fill. Both soybean meal and oil are higher.
  • Technically, November soybeans appear to have put a bottom in and are hugging the 50-day moving average which is moving higher. There is a gap on the chart at 13.79 which may be a target.
  • With this two weeks of hot and dry temperatures, the September WASDE report could show another reduction in yields, but that is also the report where acres could be adjusted higher which would effect the carryout.
  •  India’s July oilmeal exports rose to 381,301 tons, but soybean meal exports fell to 52,210 tons from 73,139 in June.

  • Wheat is trading higher this morning after 5 consecutively lower closes in Chicago wheat as markets look for a bottom. There was no news of attacks in the Black Sea last night.
  • India is reportedly in confidential talks with Russia for a massive purchase of 9 mmt of wheat which would be the largest grain deal ever between the two countries. Indian wheat stocks are 20% below the 10-year average.
  • A drought in Kazakhstan has led to the destruction on 170 hectares of cropland with much of that being dedicated to wheat.
  • Ukraine’s August grain exports out of the Danube River are reported at 820,000 metric tons so far as the river becomes Ukraine’s main export route.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: August 17, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’23 466 -3.5
DEC ’23 478.5 -3
DEC ’24 505.5 -2.25

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1325.75 2.25
JAN ’24 1336 2.25
NOV ’24 1276 5.25

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’23 590.75 -7
DEC ’23 616.5 -6.5
JUL ’24 666.5 -5.5

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’23 743 0
DEC ’23 751.5 -1
JUL ’24 741.5 0.5

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’23 791.5 0.5
DEC ’23 806.75 0.5
SEP ’24 807.5 7.25

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4430.25 10.25

Crude Oil

OCT ’23 79.8 0.78

Gold

OCT ’23 1908.5 -1.3

  • Corn is trading lower this morning along with wheat as prices seem to slide downwards whenever Russia doesn’t launch a new attack on Ukraine’s ports.
  • Export sales will be released today and are expected to be slow, but new crop sales have picked up slightly over the past month as US corn prices fall.
  • US ethanol stocks rose by 2.4% to 23.435 m bbl, but analysts were expecting 22.83. Plant production was 1.069 m b/d compared to the survey average of 1.035.
  • The US is preparing to request a dispute resolution panel with Mexico claiming that their corn policy banning GMO corn violates the trade deal.

  • Soybeans are trading quietly this morning and are essentially unchanged as soybean meal slips lower but soybean oil continues on higher.
  • Soybean oil prices are getting a boost from higher palm oil on talk of increased imports from India, helping to firm soybean oil’s percent of crush value to 6-month highs, while also adding support to soybeans.
  • Brazilian food and fuel processor Caramuru Alimentos has started selling soybean based ethanol at one of its plants in Brazil.
  • In the EU, soybean imports were down slightly from the previous year at 1.33 mmt by August 13 compared to 1.58 mmt a year earlier.

  • All three wheat products are lower after a lack of activity in the Black Sea region last night. The progression of US harvest is also weighing on prices.
  • Brazil’s wheat crop is now seen at 11.19 mmt which is down 2.3% from the previous estimate. Their imports were unchanged at 5.77 mmt.
  • Ukraine’s August grain exports out of the Danube River are reported at 820,000 metric tons so far as the river becomes Ukraine’s main export route.
  • India is considering wheat imports from Russia of 9 mmt to calm local prices which have reached a 7-month high due to their own low wheat stocks.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: August 16, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’23 466.25 2.25
DEC ’23 478.25 2.75
DEC ’24 504.75 1

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1312.75 7.5
JAN ’24 1323.5 8
NOV ’24 1263.25 7

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’23 606.25 7.75
DEC ’23 631.75 8
JUL ’24 675.75 4

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’23 738.75 1.25
DEC ’23 747.75 2.25
JUL ’24 733.5 -2.5

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’23 793.5 7
DEC ’23 808.75 6.75
SEP ’24 804.25 4

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4450.25 -3.75

Crude Oil

OCT ’23 80.47 -0.03

Gold

OCT ’23 1917.9 1.4

  • The corn market is trading higher this morning with the forecast showing warm and dry conditions for the next two weeks. 
  • While weather conditions for the end of August will warm up, the improved crop conditions have some analysts thinking the current USDA yield estimate of 175.1 bpa may be too low and could rise in subsequent reports, adding to the already comfortable 23/24 ending stocks.
  • Dalian corn futures traded sharply lower on increased concerns about the Chinese economy. 
  • There are reports that ethanol stocks in Brazil are piling up on weakening demand as gasoline prices have gotten cheaper and more competitive with ethanol.  

  • Oversold conditions and a change in the forecast to warm and dry for the next two weeks have soybeans trading higher this morning along with higher soybean meal and oil.
  • Yesterday’s U.S. NOPA crush report showed that NOPA members crushed 173.3 mb of soybeans last month, an increase of 1.8% from year ago levels and above expectations.
  • Despite the increase in crush, soybean oil stocks were only 1,527 mil. lbs, a 10-month low, which highlights the increased use for domestic biofuel demand.
  • Soybean oil prices are also getting a boost from higher palm oil on talk of increased imports from India, helping to firm soybean oil’s percent of crush value to 6-month highs, while also adding support to soybeans.
  • Demand for soybean meal continues to be strong in China as prices remain firm despite the county’s weak economic data.

  • Chicago and Minneapolis wheat futures are firmer this morning while K.C. futures are mixed, as the market recovers somewhat on oversold conditions.
  • Reports of increased Russian drone attacks on a Danube River port may be adding support to the market. 
  • The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. is in negotiations with Ukraine, Turkey and Romania with the goal to increase Ukraine’s grain export capacity to 4 mmt/month through alternative routes including using the Danube River.
  • Currently, following the recent decline, U.S. Soft Red Winter wheat export prices are below EU offers and $13/mt below Russia and could add support to the market and increase export sales. 
  • There are thoughts in the market that U.S. wheat buyers are covered through the end of the year and may be staying out of the market for now.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: August 15, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn
SEP ’23 471.5 -4.25
DEC ’23 483.25 -4.5
DEC ’24 508.5 -1.75
Soybeans
NOV ’23 1319.5 -6.5
JAN ’24 1328.5 -6.25
NOV ’24 1261 -4.75
Chicago Wheat
SEP ’23 609.5 -6.5
DEC ’23 635 -6.5
JUL ’24 684 -5.5
K.C. Wheat
SEP ’23 749.75 -0.75
DEC ’23 757.5 -1.75
JUL ’24 752 0
Mpls Wheat
SEP ’23 802.75 -2.75
DEC ’23 817.25 -2.75
SEP ’24 812.25 -4.75
S&P 500
SEP ’23 4479.75 -26.25
Crude Oil
OCT ’23 81.13 -0.79
Gold
OCT ’23 1915.2 -10

  • Corn is trading lower this morning after crop progress was released yesterday afternoon which showed the corn crop improving.
  • The good to excellent rating for corn rose by 2% to 59% and is now rated higher than last year’s crop at this time. 96% of the crop is silking and 65% is doughing.
  • The upcoming hot and dry forecast that is expected to last around 2 weeks may impact ear fill, especially in areas that have didn’t receive as much rain.
  • Yesterday’s export inspections for corn were slow at 15.6 mb but were slightly above the previous week. There was a cargo to China, but Mexico is still the number 1 importer of US corn.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning with front month September leading the way after an improvement in crop ratings. Soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is higher.
  • Crop progress saw a 5% increase in the good to excellent rating for soybeans with 78% of the crop setting pods.
  • The 7-day forecast contains almost no rain for the Midwest and could impact yields, but things would be more concerning if not for the recent rains.
  • Soybean inspections totaled 10.9 mb for the week ending August 10, and total inspections are now down 8% from the previous year.

  • Wheat is lower again this morning after crop progress showed a slight improvement to spring wheat ratings.
  • Crop progress showed spring wheat good to excellent ratings increasing by 1% to 42%. Spring wheat is now 24% harvested vs 11% last week, and winter wheat is now 92% harvested vs 87% last week.
  • IKAR has raised their estimate for the Russian wheat crop once again to 89.5 mmt vs 88 mmt, and traders seem confident that those grains will actually get exported despite the war.
  • Despite Russia pulling out of the Black Sea grain deal, Ukraine has begun registering ships for another Black Sea corridor to release cargo ships that have been trapped.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: August 14, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn
SEP ’23 472.5 -2
DEC ’23 484.5 -2.75
DEC ’24 507.25 -2
Soybeans
NOV ’23 1319.25 11.75
JAN ’24 1328.5 11.25
NOV ’24 1262 7
Chicago Wheat
SEP ’23 621.5 -5.25
DEC ’23 648 -5.75
JUL ’24 696.25 -6.75
K.C. Wheat
SEP ’23 749 -6.75
DEC ’23 759.5 -6.5
JUL ’24 757 -9
Mpls Wheat
SEP ’23 812.25 -2.75
DEC ’23 828 -2.25
SEP ’24 817 0
S&P 500
SEP ’23 4490 9.25
Crude Oil
OCT ’23 82.23 -0.34
Gold
OCT ’23 1926.8 -0.9

  • Corn is trading slightly lower this morning following Friday’s WASDE report which showed a decline in expected demand.
  • The weather forecast has turned more bullish with the 7-day forecast showing very little rain in the Corn Belt and hotter temperatures.
  • In Brazil, corn on the Bovespa exchange fell by 1.5% as the second crop corn harvest has estimates pointing to a record output.
  • Brazilian farmers have now harvested 72.84% of their second crop corn compared to 83.41% at this time last year. 

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning along with both soybean meal and oil. The drier forecast could impact soybean yields.
  • China’s soybean imports were up 15% between January and July with an estimated 62.3 mmt imported in that timeframe.
  • NOPA July US soybean crush is expected at 171.337 mb which would be up from June’s 9-month low.
  • In India, July vegetable oil imports rose to 1.77 mmt with palm imports rising the most from 683,133 tons to 1.09 mmt.

  • Wheat is trading lower this morning and is testing the lower end of the trading range. Friday’s USDA report shows winter wheat yields improving added pressure.
  • Russia’s wheat exports have been huge but are expected to get even bigger as the country dominates the global export market. They are expected to export 47 mmt in 23/24.
  • Ukraine’s grain harvest is exceeding expectations and could be 5% higher than in 2022 thanks to favorable weather.
  • Despite Russia pulling out of the Black Sea grain deal, Ukraine has begun registering ships for another Black Sea corridor to release cargo ships that have been trapped.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.