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All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading lower this morning after a rally that lasted five days that was driven by dry weather and the Russian attacks on Ukraine’s port cities.
• Yesterday the National Weather Service released a 30-day forecast which showed lower temperatures and above normal chances of precipitation for the Corn Belt.
• The 7-day forecast is expected to be rough with little rain expected throughout the Corn Belt and higher than normal temperatures.
• After the recent rains of the past few weeks, the US drought monitor showed moderate to intense drought falling by 9 points from the previous week to 55%. The previous high was 70%.

• Soybeans are trading lower along with soybean meal, and soybean is lower with the exception of the August contract which is slightly higher.
• Yesterday’s 30-day forecast which showed more rain and less heat was more of a suppressant on soybean’s rally as the August timeframe is very important weather-wise.
• Palm oil futures have rallied nearly 23% since the lows made in late May, and soybean oil is up about 50% in that same time, so a correction is not surprising.
• Indonesian palm oil exports rose by 4.5% month over month to 2.23 mmt in May from 2.13 mmt in April as output increased.

• Wheat is trading lower this morning with KC wheat leading the way followed by Chicago. News of attacks out of the Black Sea seem to have worn off as futures got overbought.
• Ukrainian exports out of the Black Sea are over at this point with Russia threatening any vessels found there, and they have also started conducting live fire exercises in the Black Sea.
• The damage done my Russia’s drone and missile strikes on all of the Ukrainian port cities is not completely known, but Odessa seemingly got the worst of it with large amounts of grain destroyed.
• The IGC raised global grain production and the stockpiles estimate with world grain production now seen at 2.297 billion tons, but the wheat crop itself has shrunk. 

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading slightly lower this morning despite fresh attacks by Ukraine on Odessa last night, with each attack reportedly more damaging than the last.
• A few very dry areas in Minnesota received rainfall in the past 48 hours which has eased some concerns for that area.
•  Dec corn appears to be meeting some resistance around the 5.60 area as producers step in to make cash sales to reward this rally.
• US ethanol stocks rose by 2.2% to 23.166 m bbl, and analysts were expecting 22.669 mln bbl. Plant production was at 1.07 m b/d compared to the average guess of 1.042 m.

• Soybeans are trading slightly lower as soybean meal falls but soybean oil trades higher along with higher crude oil.
• At some point today, the National Weather Service will release their forecast for August. This should have some effect on prices with August weather being critical for soybean yield.
• The USDA attaché has put the Argentinian soy crop at 21.25 mmt which is 3.75 mmt below the most recent USDA estimate.
• Chinese June soybean imports from Brazil were up 32% on the year as China stocks up on cheap soy products. China imported 9.53 mmt of oilseed compared to 7.24 mmt a year earlier.

• Wheat has turned lower this morning but was higher overnight after reports of a third attack on the Ukrainian port city of Odessa came in and are said to be even worse than the attack the previous night.
• With the grain deal off the table, Russia is wasting no time ramping up attacks on Ukraine and seems to be targeting port cities on the Black Sea to limit their exports.
• The previous night’s attack on Odessa destroyed 60,000 tons of grain that were being stored there, and more was likely destroyed last night.
• Technically, December wheat may have found resistance at the 200-day moving average ay 7.60 because futures slightly exceeded that level before backing off lower.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading higher again today continuing its rally after Russia attacked Ukraine’s port city of Odessa again last night inflicting much more damage than the previous night.
• The 10-day forecast for the Corn Belt is still showing dry conditions with temperatures turning the hottest of the season beginning this weekend. Minnesota received some light showers overnight.
• Projections for ethanol production for the week ending July 14 is showing production higher than the previous week at 1.042 million b/d with the stockpile average estimate above a week ago.
• Barchart has raised their corn yield estimates to a yield of 177.97 bpa which compares the the USDA’s most recent forecast of 177.76 bpa.

• Soybeans are trading higher again this morning with the Nov contract making a new high for 2023. Soybean meal’s gains are helping this rally, and soybean oil is higher as well.
• Forecasts are predicting that August will begin with higher than normal temperatures in the Western Corn Belt, so rainfall will be important to shore up the poor current soil moisture levels.
• The NWS will likely release their 30 and 90-day forecasts this week which the soy complex will watch closely for an idea on moisture and temperature into pod fill season.
• India’s oilmeals exports fell to 280,001 tons in June from 436,596 tons in May.

• Wheat is beginning the day higher with Chicago wheat leading the way followed by KC and Minn following news of last nights Russian attack on Ukraine’s port city.
• After Russia withdrew from the grain deal they attacked Ukraine’s port city of Odessa with minimal damage and no casualties, but reports have come in of a second attack from last night which a spokesperson from Odessa called it a “hellish night”. It is assumed much more damage was done during this attack.
• This morning, Russia said that ships in the Black Sea would be “in danger”, but they have also said that they would be willing to come back to negotiate in 3 months if the UN makes good on Russian demands.
• The UN is apparently “floating” ideas on how to get Ukrainian and Russia grain out to the rest of the world as the Black Sea is closed.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading higher this morning after reports came in that Russia attacked Ukraine’s port city of Odessa, seemingly solidifying their withdrawal from the grain deal and retaliating for the Crimea bridge attack.
• Crop conditions showed the good to excellent rating for corn improving by 2% to 57%, on par with trade guesses. This is still the third worst rating for this date since 1988, however.
• The three worse ratings in mid July were in 1988, 2012, and 2005, but those crops did not trend higher in mid July, and this year’s corn crop has improved by 7% in just three weeks.
• The 8 to 14 day forecast is still showing below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures primarily in the eastern Corn Belt which may be adding some weather premium today.

• Soybeans are trading higher this morning and are being led by soybean meal which is on a strong rally, while soybean oil is slightly higher.
• Crop progress showed the soy crop’s good to excellent rating improving by 4% last week to 55% which was above the average trade guess and a result of rainfall in the past few weeks.
• Soybean meal has been rallying due to Argentina’s shrinking soy crop which is estimated at 21 mmt (4 mmt below the last USDA estimate), and Argentina is the largest exporter of soybean meal.
• NOPA June soybean crush fell to a 9-month low of 165.023 million bushels, down from the 177.915 mb processed in May.

• Wheat is trading higher alongside corn and soybeans this morning with Chicago leading the way, followed by KC. Russia’s attack on the port city of Odessa is likely helping futures.
• Crop conditions showed spring wheat good to excellent ratings improving by 4% from last week to 51%, 10 points below last year’s rating at this time.
• The winter wheat harvest is now 56% complete compared to 46% last week, but behind last year’s 71% at this time.
• After Russia blamed Ukraine for the attack on the Crimean bridge over the weekend, Russia withdrew from the grain deal and promised retaliation which came in the way of the attack on Ukraine’s port city of Odessa, but only 1 person was injured and nearly all of the missiles and drones were shot down.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading higher and gapped slightly higher overnight after Russia announced that it was withdrawing from their participation in the Ukrainian grain deal.
• The crucial grain deal was ended abruptly because the Kremlin has claimed that it is not being used for the benefit of countries that it was intended for, but the move also comes as tensions heighten.
• Weather has been another bullish factor this morning as a large portion of the Corn Belt is forecast to be dry over the next 7 days with warmer than normal temperatures.
• Friday’s CFTC report showed funds increasing their net short position by a whopping 45,000 contracts which now puts them short over 63,000 contracts.

• November soybeans are continuing to move higher but still have found resistance at the 14 dollar mark. Crude oil is trading lower below 75 dollars a barrel, but both soybean oil and meal are higher.
• Soybeans dipped lower after the USDA report that showed higher ending stocks estimates than expected, and focus has shifted back to weather and world veg oils.
• The closing of the Ukrainian grain deal does not impact soybeans directly, but it does impact the value of soybean oil as that region exports a lot of sunflower oil and meal.
• Friday’s CFTC data showed funds as net sellers of soybeans by 6,394 contracts reducing their net long position to 82,748 contracts.

• Wheat is trading higher this morning after the end of the Ukrainian grain deal which obviously impacts wheat the most, but also comes during the US’s winter wheat harvest.
• As winter wheat harvest presses on, the new supplies could make it difficult for futures to rally, and funds have already been content as sellers.
• Spring wheat may be facing more weather related challenges as rain is needed in the southern Canadian prairies and in North Dakota with a drier and warmer 8 to 14 day forecast.
• Friday’s CFTC data showed funds as net buyers of wheat by just 1,878 contracts, slightly reducing their net short positions to 52,128 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• The corn market is trading higher this morning and near the top end of its range, with support likely coming from a lower US Dollar and slow farmer selling.
• US export sales commitments for the 22/23 corn crop at 1.555 bb are down 35% from last year’s levels, and current 23/24 sales commitments at 159 mb are down from year-ago levels of 269 mb, the lowest since 2019. 
• According to the Rosario Grain Exchange, Argentina’s corn production is seen at 32 mmt, which is down 40% from previous expectations. Additionally, harvest has been slow and is estimated at only 40% complete due to high moisture.
• The latest US Drought Monitor shows 64% of the corn crop is in a drought area, though down 3% from last week with the recent rainfall, leading some to question the USDA’s current yield forecast of 177.5 bpa.
• Some areas of the Midwest will see enough rain through the middle of next week to boost soil moisture, but some will miss out, creating a mixed bag of conditions for developing corn and soybeans, while long-range forecasts show the possibility of drier conditions in the North/Central Midwest.

• Thoughts of a better US economy following yesterday’s friendly inflation data and a lower US dollar are offering support to the soybean complex which is trading near its highs so far this morning.
• Updated Producer Price Index, or PPI, information released yesterday showed inflation levels are slowing, reducing the possibility of further rate hikes by the Fed.
• Following Wednesday’s surprising USDA report, some are questioning the USDA’s 52 bpa yield estimate with 57% of the US soybean crop experiencing some level of drought, though this is down 3% from last week.
• Some areas of the Midwest will see enough rain through the middle of next week to boost soil moisture, but some will miss out, creating a mixed bag of conditions for developing corn and soybeans, while long-range forecasts show the possibility of drier conditions in the North/Central Midwest.
• Total export sales commitments for 22/23 are down 11% from last year versus the USDA’s revised estimate of a 8% reduction. Total sales commitments for 23/24 are only 153 mbu which are historically low compared to 509 mbu sold last year at this time.

• The wheat markets are trading higher this morning on talk of India banning rice exports, and possibly wheat exports as well. 
• Considering India is the world’s largest rice exporter this may add demand to wheat as the next closest substitute.
• Currently, 52% of the winter wheat crop is experiencing drought, down 2% from last week, while spring wheat areas in drought climbed 6% to 25% as the dryness continues in the northern Plains.
• The Northern Plains are expected to have a couple of chances for rain in the next week, but amounts are expected to be below normal with below normal temperatures. The Central/Southern Plains are expected to receive periodic rainfall with a decent frequency of activity for this time of year with mild temperatures, although the rainfall may further disrupt wheat harvest.  
• Minneapolis wheat could lead the wheat complex higher with the growing dryness in the region and falling crop conditions.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• December corn traded both sides of unchanged overnight and is now near the top of its 9-1/2 cent range as it recovers somewhat from yesterday’s bearish USDA report.
• The USDA lowered the potential corn yield to 177.5 bushels/acres (-4.0 bu/acre), just above market expectations, but did not adjust the demand side of the balance sheet to establish a new carry out projection of 2.262 billion bushels for the 23/24 marketing year. This total was in line with analysts’ expectations. If realized 23/24 ending stocks and stocks/use ratios would be the highest in 7 years.
• The USDA lowered old crop export demand by 75 million bushels, and traders in the market pressured corn prices feeling that a projected new crop export demand of 2.100 billion bushels, up 450 mb from 22/23 projections, will be difficult to reach at current corn price levels.
• Weekly ethanol production reported by the EIA came in below expectations and slipped to 1,032k barrels/day from the previous week’s 1,060k barrels/day. Ethanol stocks also rose 1.8% to 22.658M barrels.
• The Funds were active sellers yesterday following the USDA report, selling an estimated 10,500 contracts. They are now estimated to be short 26,000 contracts.

• The soybean complex is trading higher this morning with traders likely covering some short positions after yesterday’s bearish USDA report, with soybean meal and oil also trading higher.
• The USDA surprised the market by adding 25 mb to the 22/23 carryout bringing the total to 255 mb (versus 232 mb expected) and only dropping the 23/24 carryout numbers 50 mb from last June to 300 mb, with an estimated yield of 52 bpa. Trade expectations were about 200 mb for 23/24 carry out with a 51.3 bpa yield.
• South American production for 22/23 was left unchanged in today’s report with Brazil’s crop estimated at 156 mmt versus 156.2 mmt expected, and Argentina’s crop estimated at 25 mmt versus 23.6 mmt expected. 
• Funds were active sellers of soybeans following the bearish USDA report, selling an estimated 10,000 contracts. They are now estimated to be long 94,000 contracts.
• Export sales will be announced later this morning for soybeans and are expected to range from 10 – 30 mb.

• The wheat market is also posting a bit of a recovery from yesterday’s downturn with Chicago and Minneapolis mostly higher, and K.C. mixed.
• In yesterday’s report, the USDA estimated 23/24 all wheat production at 1.739 bb versus expectations of 1.677 bb, and 1.665 bb last month. 22/23 wheat carryout was estimated at 580 mb versus expectations of 583 mb, and 23/24 carryout came in at 592 mb when the trade was looking for 565 mb.
• The USDA estimated the winter wheat yield at 46.9 bpa, up 2.0 bu from last month’s projection, and for reference, last year’s average yield was 47.0 bpa. 
• Like corn and beans, funds were active sellers in Chicago wheat, selling an estimated 9,000 contracts. They are now estimated to be short 59,000 Chicago wheat contracts.
•  Export sales released later this morning are expected to range from 8 – 16 mb.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading higher and near the top of its 5-cent range this morning in the December contract as traders ready themselves and cover short positions ahead of today’s 11 am USDA WASDE report.
• Expectations for today’s USDA report are for corn yield to drop to 176.3 bpa, down 5.2 bpa from the June report.  Despite the yield drop, the additional acres and possible demand adjustment will likely keep new crop corn carryover near 2.250 billion bushels on the report.  The average trade guess for the 2022 crop ending stocks is 1.424 bil. bu, versus 1.452 bil. bu in June.
• The weekly EIA report on ethanol production will be released today at 9:30 CST with some looking for weekly production to be down from last week’s pace of 1,060k barrels/day.
• Over the next 10 days decent rain is expected through eastern Nebraska, southern Iowa, Missouri, and into Illinois and the eastern Corn Belt.  While the north/central Midwest and northern Plains are expected to see much lighter amounts.

• Soybeans continue their march higher ahead of today’s 11 a.m. USDA report with soybean meal and oil also higher, with soybean oil likely getting a boost from higher Malayasian palm oil.
• The average trade guess for 2022 carryover is up 2 mil bu. at 232 mbu. versus the USDA’s June estimate of 230, largely due to reduced export demand.   Due to lower acreage numbers from the June 30th report, the average trade estimate for 2023 carryover is 203 mil. bu with a 51.3 bpa, versus June’s 350 mil. bu estimate.
• South American basis is improving which is allowing US soybeans to be more competitive in the world market, though they remain above SA offers.
• According to Refinitiv, China has increased soybean imports from Brazil in response to concerns of tight US supplies.  China’s total Feb. – June soybean imports from Brazil were 40.74 million tons versus 31.6 mil. tons and 38.6 mil. tons for 2022 and 2021 respectively.
• It has been rumored that China bought 10 – 14 cargoes of US soybeans off the PNW for October delivery for their reserves.  Though at this time there remains no confirmation from the USDA and New Crop commitments continue to be historically low.

• The wheat complex is trading mixed this morning with Chicago lower, Minneapolis mixed, and K.C. near unchanged.
• Average trade estimates for today’s USDA report have the 2023 US wheat crop at 1,683 mil. bu. versus June’s 1,665 mil. bu.  While 2023 total Winter Wheat is estimated at 1,154 mb versus 1,136 mb.  The first HRS estimate is near 477 mb versus 446 mb last year.  The average trade guess for 2023 wheat ending stocks is up 9 mb to 571 mb versus the USDA’s June estimate of 562 mb. 
• In its first outlook of the year, the French agricultural ministry estimated the country’s soft-wheat harvest at a 2-year high of 35 mmt, 1.3 mmt higher than last year.  Yield was also reported to be the highest since 2019.
• As the Black Sea Grain Initiative is set to expire next week, Russia has been targeting the Ukrainian port city of Odessa with drone attacks.  Though the attacks have largely been neutralized with relatively minor damage reported.  Additionally, the expiration of the BSGI will likely make it difficult for Ukraine to reach its export targets. 
• According to Ukraine’s agricultural ministry, the country’s grain exports for the 23/24 season as July 12, rose to 894k tons versus 598k tons last season.  With wheat exports double and corn up 22% versus year ago levels.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• There’s not much turn around on this turn around Tuesday as corn follows through this morning with higher prices and traders square positions ahead tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report with an anticipated 2023 carryout in excess of 2.1 bil bu.
• Crop conditions as of Sunday, July 9 for the US corn crop were 55% good to excellent, 2% above expectations and a 4% increase from last week.
• Basis for nearby bids on corn shipped to the US Gulf firmed yesterday on limited supplies and rising barge freight.  While bids for the deferred months softened on rising futures prices.
• While Brazil’s safriha corn crop appears to be quite bountiful, harvest is behind.  One of Brazil’s crop watchers AgRural, estimates the harvest to be 27% complete compared to 41% last year, which may be helping strengthen the domestic basis. 

• The soybean complex is mixed this morning with soybeans and soybean meal higher in anticipation a near 200 mb 2023 carryout in tomorrow’s USDA report.  While soybean oil is lower, following lower palm oil prices.
• The USDA rated the US soybean crop as of Sunday, July 9 at 51% good to excellent, a 1% increase from last week, but also 1% below trade expectations and 11% below year ago levels.
• Spot basis bids at river terminals, processors and elevators were mostly weaker yesterday as strong farmer sales fed the short-term demand on rising Board prices.
• China has adopted new regulations to require imported soybeans to be quarantined in specific warehouses prior to entering the domestic market.  While these new regulations will likely slow the importation process into China, it remains unclear what affects they will have on the overall market.

• All three wheat classes are firmer to start the day with Minneapolis contracts leading the way higher as crop conditions came in below expectations.
• As of Sunday July 9, the US Winter Wheat crop was estimated to be 46% harvested, 5% behind trade expectations of 51%, which also compares to 62% last year and 59% complete on average.  The USDA also rated the Spring Wheat crop at 47% good to excellent, which was 2% below expectations.
• The President of Turkey is expected to meet with Vladimir Putin to discuss the Black Sea Grain Initiative with hopes of extending the arrangement past July 18, but the Kremlin has yet to confirm whether a meeting is scheduled.
• According to IKAR, Russian wheat export prices are trading at $231/mt, keeping Russia the dominant player in world wheat exports. 

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• The corn market is mostly higher this morning as it continues to consolidate following the USDA’s surprise increase in acres and ahead of Wednesday’s USDA July supply and demand update.
• Expectations call for increased 2023 corn production in Wednesday’s report.  The average estimate is for a 15,149 bil. bu. crop versus 13,730 in 2022, with an average yield guess of 175.8 bpa versus the USDA’s June estimate of 181.5 bpa.  
• The average guess for 2022 ending stocks is a reduction of 42 mil. bu. from the June estimate to 1,406 mil. bu., with an average guess for 2023 ending stocks coming in at 2,166 mil. bu.
• The managed funds were big sellers following the USDA’s Stocks and Acreage report.  Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed as of Wednesday, July 5, Funds sold 71,000 contracts to flip their positions from net long 53k to net short 18k contracts.
• The most current US 6 – 10 day forecast calls for mostly normal precipitation in northern Corn belt with slightly above in the southern Corn Belt, southern Plains and Southeast.  While below average temperatures are called for in much of the central Corn Belt and Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Kansas.  The extended 8 – 14-day forecast shows above normal temperatures moving in for most of the US with normal precipitation in Midwest and slightly above normal precipitation in Southeast.

• Soybeans are higher across the board led largely by soybean oil with 1.42 cent gains in December, with meal up $4.50 per ton, as warm temperatures are expected to move in across the US in the 8 – 14-day forecast.
• The market may likely continue to consolidate ahead of Wednesday’s USDA July WASDE report.  The trade is expecting slightly lower 2023 production at 4,250 mil. bu. versus 4,276 for 2022 with a 51.4 bpa compared to 49.5 last year.
• The average trade guess for 2022 ending stocks is up 5 mil bu. at 235 mbu. versus the USDA’s June estimate of 230, largely due to reduced export demand.  As for 2023, the average trade estimate is for 206 mil. bu. due to lower acreage and production.
• In Friday’s COT report, managed funds were sellers of soybeans, but not to the extent of corn.  The report showed Funds sold a total of about 10,000 contracts, reducing their net long to an estimated 89,000 contracts as of Wednesday July 5.

• The wheat market is mixed as we come out of the overnight session with Chicago and K.C. mostly higher and Minneapolis mixed with the deferred contracts trading lower.  While nearby contracts are higher.
• Trade estimates for Wednesday’s USDA report have the 2023 US wheat crop at 1,683 mil. bu. versus June’s 1,665 mil. bu.  While 2023 total Winter Wheat is estimated at 1.154 mil. bu. versus 1,136 mil. bu.  The first HRS estimate is near 477 mil. bu. versus 446 mil bu. last year. 
• The average trade guess for 2022 ending stocks for all wheat is down 15 mil bu. to 583 mbu. versus the USDA’s June estimate of 598 mil. bu.  As for 2023, the average trade estimate is for 565 mil. bu., up 3 mil. from June’s estimate.
• Last Friday’s COT report didn’t show a large overall change in the fund’s Chicago wheat position.  In total, as of Wednesday July 5, the funds added 2,000 contracts to their short positions bring their total net short to 54,000 contracts.
• The expected moisture in the 6 – 10 day forecast in the southern Plains may add a level of concern for additional delays and quality issues for any unharvested HRW wheat in the region.  While there remains a level of concern for wheat crops in Canada, Central Russia and Northern China.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.