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All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is unchanged to slightly lower to begin the week on little fresh news and the ongoing harvest. Corn remains rangebound.
• Today’s crop progress will likely show a solid advancement in harvest, but there is rain forecast in the eastern Corn Belt which could slow things down.
• In Brazil, the second crop corn harvest is in full swing, but sales have been on the low end as many purchasers already have large inventories.
• Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials continuing to sell corn by 9,906 contracts increasing their net short position to 144,815 contracts.

• Soybeans are trading slightly lower this morning while soybean meal trades higher but soybean oil lower. The gains in crude oil have begun to level off around the 90 dollar a barrel level.
• With harvest set to begin in the US and prices depressed, the same has started to spill over in Brazil, and prices in the spot market there have fallen over the past few days.
• The USDA has forecast that US ending stocks will come in around 220 mb although many think it will be tighter than that, but traders are more focused on the combination of Brazilian and US harvest.
• Last week’s CFTC report showed non-commercials selling 27,983 contracts reducing their net long position to 45,832 contracts.

• Chicago wheat is trading higher this morning but KC and Minn wheat are mostly unchanged, hovering above recent lows.
• There was more fighting between Russia and Ukraine over the weekend with Ukraine saying Russian drones damaged another grain storage facility near Odesa.
• India has said that it sees no wheat shortage and may increase sales to control prices. Previously, India curbed exports to manage food inflation which was up 9.9% from the previous year.
• Last week’s CFTC report showed funds tacking further onto their short position selling 12,666 contracts and increasing the net short position to 96,805 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is slightly higher this morning following yesterday’s selloff in the grains, but trade remains tightly rangebound.
• Weather models are showing showers in the western and southern Plains as well as Illinois, and heavy rains are expected to fall in the Dakotas through Oklahoma next week.
• After some early dryness in Brazil, rains are expected to begin falling next week which could be a start to their rainy season and could be favorable for planting.
• CONAB estimated Brazilian corn production lower after reducing acres and it is now seen at 119.8 mmt which is down from the USDA’s estimate of 129.0 mmt.

• Soybeans are trading higher after yesterday’s selloff and the Nov contract is trying to get back above that 100-day moving average. Both soybean meal and oil are higher this morning.
• Argentina’s soybean planting is set to cover 39.54 million acres, the same as last year, but another severe drought is not expected, so a much larger crop than last year is expected.
•  US incentives to boost consumption of more environmentally friendly fuel has created a new market for used Chinese cooking oil, worth almost $390 million in the last 12 months.
• US soybeans in drought conditions have increased by 5 points as of September 19 and now reach 53%. 

• All three wheat products are trading higher this morning following yesterday’s selloff.
• Yesterday, the entire grain complex was lower and this was likely a result of the Fed’s decision to keep rates higher for longer than expected which caused the dollar to rally which makes US exports less competitive.
• A second grain ship carrying 18,000 tons of wheat has left the Ukrainian Black Sea port for Egypt, and three more cargo ships are heading to the port to pick up grain bound for China.
• Ukraine’s grain harvest has advanced 14% from last year and 22.19 mmt of wheat have been harvested, up 16% year over year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading lower this morning following lower ethanol production than expected, but trade remains rangebound.
• Heavy rains are forecast for the northwestern Plains and Texas and Arkansas, too late to help the crop but may improve water levels on the Mississippi.
• Yesterday’s report from the US Energy Department said that just 980,000 barrels of ethanol were produced last week which was the lowest since May.
• After estimates for Brazil’s corn crop were lowered to 119.8 mmt on a decrease in planted acres by 4.8%, corn on the Bovespa exchange traded higher at the equivalent of $5.60 a bushel.

• Soybeans are trading lower this morning but are hovering right above the 100-day moving average which could be acting as support. Both soybean meal and oil are lower.
• While Brazil decreased their corn planted acres, they increased acres for soybeans and are now expecting a massive 162.4 mmt crop which is pressuring prices.
• China appears to be banking on having access to a large, cheap Brazilian crop next year as their soybean futures on the Dalian exchange are trading at the equivalent of $17.68 for November, but March beans are trading at the equivalent of $15.81.
• Chinese August soy imports from Brazil are now up 45% from the previous year.

• All three wheat contracts are slightly lower this morning as a lack of export demand keeps prices at these low levels.
• According to the Wall Street Journal, the Ukrainians have been so successful that Russian ships are no longer safe in the northwestern part of the Black Sea which is why Ukraine has been able to start sending ships through that passage.
• Yesterday, the Fed announced they would not do another rate hike, but they would keep rates this high until later next year. This caused the dollar to increase which is bearish for wheat.
• Sov Econ cut their estimates for Russian wheat production for 2023 to 91.6 mmt from 92.1 mmt citing a decrease in Siberia’s expected crop.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading slightly higher this morning following yesterday’s strong price action higher. 
• US weekly ethanol production set to be released today is expected to come in lower than last week at 1.025 million barrels per day according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
• The slowing global economy will likely weaken commodity prices according to some global economists. higher interest rates meant to tame inflation seem to be the main factor contributing to the slowed growth. 
• In Brazil, light rains are forecast through next week which should be favorable for first crop corn planting which accounts for less than 25% of total Brazilian corn production. 

• Soybeans are trading slightly higher this morning along with soybean meal as value buyers step in after the recent drop in prices.
• Storm clusters across the Midwest late this week and into the weekend will likely delay early harvest progress. The rains may benefit late planted or double crop beans. 
• Soybean planting in the southern Brazilian state of Parana has reached 6% complete up 5% from last week according to state agency DERAL. 
• Chinese importers have booked at least 20 cargoes of soybeans from Brazil and Argentina over the past two weeks for delivery to China during October, November and December. This is typically a period dominated by the US.

• All three wheat contracts are higher this morning after poking down to new lows recently.
• Above normal rainfall and temperatures are expected for most of the Plains States in the most recent 8-14 day outlook from the CPC, this should benefit early planted winter wheat. 
• Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology suggests El Nino conditions are likely to persist into the Spring of 2024 leading to yield reductions in their wheat crop. 
• EU soft wheat exports from July 1st through September 15th have reached 6.32 million tons, down 8.7 million tons from a year ago. 

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading lower this morning and has made new lows for 2023 as harvest begins and some producers see better yields than expected.
• Yesterday, the USDA said that 51% of the corn crop was rated good to excellent which is down from 52% last week, and the lowest rating for this time of year since 2012.
• 54% of the crop is considered mature and 9% has been harvested primarily in southern states. While the weather has caused early maturation, some producers are reporting average or better yields.
• In Brazil and Argentina, light rains are forecast through next week which should prove favorable for the next corn planting.

• Soybeans are trading lower along with both soybean meal and oil as harvest nears and exports business trickles in, but not quite to the levels needed.
• Yesterday, the USDA said that good to excellent ratings for the soybean crop were unchanged at 52% while trade was expecting a 1 to 2 point decline.
• 54% of the crop is dropping leaves which is ahead of the 5-year average of 43%, and a signal that harvest will begin soon.
• Low water levels on the Mississippi River are impacting basis negatively for many producers, but rains forecast in the northwestern Plains and Midwest through Saturday could make their way to the river to raise levels in the next two weeks.

• All three wheat contracts are lower again this morning and remain near their lowest prices this year as Russia continues to dominate the export market by undercutting prices.
• Yesterday’s weekly export inspections report showed only 13.5 mb of wheat inspected with most of that number spring wheat and white wheat.
• 93% of the spring wheat crop has been harvested compared to 87% last week. 15% of winter wheat has been planted which compares to 7% last week.
• The USDA has estimated that world production would fall short of world demand by 8.5 mmt as most countries apart from Russia struggle to put out solid production, but other analysts say that the USDA is underestimating the size of the Russian crop.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading unchanged to slightly lower this morning as it remains rangebound. December corn has managed to stay just above its 2023 low of 4.73-1/2.
• Crop progress will be released this afternoon and trade is expecting another 1-2 point drop in good to excellent ratings due to the hot and dry conditions.
• The USDA has pegged this year’s corn crop at a near record 15.134 billion bushels based on a yield of 173.8 bpa, but that may end up being too high.
• Friday’s CFTC data showed funds increasing their net short position by 40,996 contracts leaving them net short 134,909 contracts.

• Soybeans are trading lower this morning along with soybean oil while soybean meal trades higher. Soybeans are beginning to feel some harvest pressure.
• Good to excellent ratings for the soybean crop are also expected to decline later today and could make the already small projected crop of 4.146 bb smaller.
• The NOPA crush report for August showed a smaller crush than was anticipated and pressured prices but crush margins are still profitable right now.
• Friday’s CFTC data showed funds selling 8,995 contracts of soybean which reduced their net long position to 73,815 contracts.

• All three wheat products are trading lower this morning with the most losses in KC wheat. French milling wheat fell by 1.6% overnight which pressured US wheat.
• Two cargo ships arrived in Ukraine over the weekend with the intent to export wheat along the western coast of the Black Sea despite the end of the grain deal.
• The southwestern Plains received needed rains over the weekend, but more will be needed as planting starts to pick up for the winter wheat crop.
• Friday’s CFTC data showed funds increasing their net short position by 5,458 contracts leaving them short 84,139 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading unchanged to slightly lower this morning as it stays in its trading range with both bull and bear arguments keeping prices gridlocked.
•  Corn is set to fall about three cents on the week following the USDA’s fairly bearish report which saw an increase in planted acres.
• The El Nino pattern has a 95% chance of lasting in the Northern Hemisphere from January through March and could bring drought to India and Australia but more rain to Brazil and Argentina.
• In Argentina, the 23/24 corn planting area is held at 7.3 million hectares and planting is 2.2% complete.

• Soybean are trading lower this morning and are on track for a slight loss on the week with lower soybean meal and slightly higher soybean oil.
• With the US carryout now at a very tight 220 mb and yields seemingly shrinking, focus will be on the upcoming planting progress report for South America.
• US August soybean crush was seen at 168.7 mb which would be 1.9% higher than the previous year but down 2.7% from a month ago.
• US drought exposure for both corn and soybeans increased as of September 12 with soybean crops in drought rising by 5% and reaching 48%.

• Wheat is slightly mixed this morning with Chicago wheat slightly higher but KC and Minn slightly lower. Overall price action in the grain complex is quiet.
• The Argentinian wheat crop improved following much needed rains and is now rated 24% good to excellent vs 18% last week.
• A new ship has left the Ukrainian port of Odesa after Russia backed out of the deal in July. This is the fifth ship to leave after the end of the deal.
• Ukraine’s grain harvest has advanced 13.5% from last year and is now at 29.5 mmt with wheat accounting for 22.15 mmt of that number, up 15.4% from last year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading slightly lower this morning and is still just 8 cents from the yearly lows following Tuesday’s bearish USDA report.
• Ethanol stocks fell by 2.1% to 21.171m bbl while analysts were expecting 21.485, and plant production was 1.039m b/d vs survey averages of 1.015m.
• The USDA’s Ukrainian corn and wheat production was seen increasing by 2 mmt and it is believed some of that grain is being exported via the Danube River and by rail into Europe.
• Corn export sales today are not expected to be large, but sales will need to average 7.4 mb per week higher than a year ago to hit the new crop USDA export estimate.

• Soybeans are trading higher this morning helped along by higher soybean meal while soybean oil trades lower. Soybeans have been relatively rangebound for the past month.
• August NOPA soybean crush in the US is seen at 167.802 mb. If realized, the August crush would be down 3.2% from the July crush but up 1.4% from the previous year.
• Export sales are expected to be modest today between 40 and 50 mb. This comes after the USDA lowered soybean exports in Tuesday’s WASDE.
• India’s August vegetable oil imports rose to 1.87 mmt from 1.77 mmt in July which should be friendly to soybean oil and other veg oils.

• After two days of higher closes, wheat is beginning the day lower as speculators look to sell rallies.
• The Argentinian wheat crop estimates were but by 0.6 mmt for 23/24 due to dryness and is now seen at 15 mmt. Argentina is not the only country dealing with wheat production issues.
• The USDA dropped world wheat ending stocks in the Tuesday report but Russia’s crop seems to keep growing and they continue selling wheat cheaper than other offers.
• The UN secretary will discuss the Black Sea grain deal with Ukraine, Turkey, and Russia next week, but it seems unlikely that Russia will change its stance.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading higher this morning after a lower close yesterday caused by a slightly bearish WASDE report.
• Yesterday’s report featured a decline in yields as expected, but pressure came from an increase in acreage that was larger than trade expectations.
• The hot and dry conditions are pushing the crop towards an early harvest, and because of this, ear weights would be expected to come up short.
• Ethanol production is being estimated slightly higher than last week at 1.015 m b/d with stockpile estimates seen at 21.485 m bbl vs 21.621 a week ago.

• Soybeans are unchanged to lower this morning after a selloff caused by yesterday’s USDA report. Soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is higher.
• The reaction to yesterday’s report was a bit of a headscratcher considering that yields were dropped and ending stocks were lowered to an extremely tight 220 mb, the lowest ending stocks in 8 years.
• Bearish notes came from a decline in crush by 10 mb which is interesting considering crush demand has been strong, and a decline of 35 mb in exports which is likely reasonable with Brazil’s crop.
• Brazil’s total soy exports are expected to reach 99 mmt in 2023, up significantly from a month ago, and soymeal exports are expected to reach 2.16 mmt in September vs 2.06 mmt the previous week. 

• Wheat is trading higher this morning after a higher close yesterday reversing off of contract lows and hopefully finding a bottom.
• World wheat production estimates fell by 6 mmt yesterday as many countries struggle with poor weather conditions impacting crops which could be causing large speculators to short cover.
• Ukraine has said that Russian drones attacked areas south of the Odesa region near the Izmail port on the Danube River overnight, and seven people were injured.
• Also overnight, Russia has said that Ukraine attacked the Sevastopol Shipyard in Crimea causing a fire and wounding at least 24 people.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading slightly lower this morning following yesterday’s crop progress report that showed deterioration slightly less than trade expectations.
• The good to excellent rating fell by 1 percentage point to 52%, the seventh lowest rating over the past 36 years. 34% of the crop is mature compared to 24% a year ago.
• The hot and dry temperatures that began in mid-August took a toll on the crop and also pushed it to maturity quicker which likely resulted in ears that have had less time to put test weight into the ears.
• As US prices become more competitive with Brazil, export inspections have begun to increase gradually. 24.5 mb were inspected last week with 8.8 mb to China.

• Soybeans are also lower this morning following yesterday’s crop progress with both soybean meal and oil lower as well. Markets are a bit risk-off ahead of the WASDE report.
• Yesterday’s crop progress showed good to excellent ratings falling by 1 percentage point to 52% while trade was expecting a decline between 2-3 points. 
• For tomorrow’s USDA report analysts are expecting a decline of 0.8 bpa for yield which represents a 65 mb production decline. Ending stocks are expected to fall to 213 mb, but it is possible that acreage is increased.
• China is boosting their outlook for soy imports in 23/24 to 97.25 mmt on robust demand from the livestock sector.

• Wheat is lower again this morning with the December Chicago contract making another new low in the overnight session.
• Offers from Russia continue to fall while the US dollar rallies, and this combined with a crash in Russian currency makes them the best deal in wheat export business.
• The spring wheat harvest is now rated 87% good to excellent which is up in a big way from last week’s 74%. Winter wheat plantings are now at 7% compared to 1% last week.
• Russia’s agriculture ministry has once again raised their 2023 total grain harvest to 130 mmt from 123 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

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