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Opening Update: August 4, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’23 491.75 11
DEC ’23 505 11.5
DEC ’24 518 8

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1339.5 14.25
JAN ’24 1348.75 14.5
NOV ’24 1266.5 12.25

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’23 645 18
DEC ’23 672.75 17.75
JUL ’24 719 14.5

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’23 778.25 10.75
DEC ’23 792.5 10.5
JUL ’24 790 14.5

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’23 843.25 9.75
DEC ’23 857 9.5
SEP ’24 817 6.25

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4527.75 6

Crude Oil

OCT ’23 81.41 0.33

Gold

OCT ’23 1948.3 -1.1

  • Corn is trading higher after a Russian warship was damaged in a Ukrainian attack on the Novorossiysk naval base in Russia near the Black Sea.
  •  The Russian ship that was attacked was offshore of a Russian port that also exports grain, and the port was briefly closed to shipping.
  • The Brazilian 23/24 corn crop is now expected to be 139.1 mmt compared to the previous year of 135.4 mmt.
  • Dryness and heat are fueling uncertainty for Argentina’s next corn crop as soil moisture levels remain low and the forecast doesn’t contain much rain.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning along with corn and wheat after Ukraine’s attack. Sep soybean meal is slightly lower while deferred contracts and soybean oil are higher.
  • The Black Sea attack has given some support, but yesterday’s good export sales and the export activity of soybeans sold to China has been friendly.
  • Brazil’s 23/24 soybean crop is now being estimated at a whopping 165.9 mmt compared to 157.3 mmt the previous year.
  • Palm oil stocks in Malaysia are seen surging to five month highs as production reaches the highest levels in seven months. Exports have increased as well.

  • Wheat is trading higher after last nights attack on the Russian warship. Trade may grow concerned not just about Ukrainian exports but also Russian exports if Ukraine decides to start damaging their grain infrastructure.
  • Floods have hit China’s grain belt as the storms following Doksuri head northeast. In the crop growing region of Jilin, 19 inches of rain have fallen in the past 3 days.
  • Ukraine’s 23/24 grain exports for August were up 29% from last year at almost 2.4 mmt, but those numbers are expected to fall as shipping lanes become unusable.
  • Russia is signaling that it will offer cheaper grain exports to countries that have been friendlier and have not imposed sanctions.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: August 3, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’23 487.75 -0.5
DEC ’23 500.25 -0.25
DEC ’24 512.75 -0.5

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1329 7.75
JAN ’24 1338 8
NOV ’24 1257.25 8

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’23 643 3
DEC ’23 670.5 3.25
JUL ’24 711 1.75

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’23 787.75 0.75
DEC ’23 803 2
JUL ’24 786.5 -0.25

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’23 855.5 6.5
DEC ’23 872 9.75
SEP ’24 816.75 -6

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4528.75 -8.5

Crude Oil

OCT ’23 79.19 0.06

Gold

OCT ’23 1952.6 -2.9

  • Corn is trading unchanged to lower on a lack of fresh news and with traders focusing on the forecast which is wet and cool over the next two weeks.
  • Yesterday’s ethanol production report was a highlight with production being the best on this date compared to the past five years. Stocks fell on good demand.
  • The average estimate for today’s export sales in corn is 658k tons, but may be less as export demand has been very sluggish.
  • Yesterday evening, StoneX revised their estimates for US corn yields higher to 177 bpa, a lofty estimate, but below the USDA’s last estimate of 177.5 bpa.

  • Soybeans are higher this morning after yesterday’s sharp selloff in anticipation of the export sales report which will reflect a solid number of flash sales to China and unknown destinations that occurred recently.
  • Soybean meal is trading higher this morning while soybean oil is lower on pressure from crude oil and world veg oil prices.
  • The average trade guess for today’s export sales report is 2,115k tons which would be one of the strongest weeks the US has seen in a awhile.
  • While StoneX increased their estimate for the corn yield, they surprisingly lowered their estimate for the soybean yield to 50.5 bpa despite the friendly August forecast.

  • Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago and Minn slightly higher and KC wheat lower despite more attacks on Ukraine’s port cities.
  • Today’s export sales report is expected to show another slow week for wheat with the average trade guess at 300k tons as Russia dominates global sales.
  • Vladimir Putin seems to be floating the idea of reinstating the Black Sea grain deal but only if their requirements are met, but last time they renewed the deal they still made it difficult for Ukraine to get ships moving.
  • India is seeking to import 9 mmt of wheat from Russia in an attempt to boost their domestic stockpiles and fight rising prices in the country.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: August 2, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’23 499.5 2.5
DEC ’23 510.5 3.25
DEC ’24 516.75 1.5

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1332 -9.25
JAN ’24 1340.5 -9.25
NOV ’24 1253 -5

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’23 660 7.75
DEC ’23 685.75 7.5
JUL ’24 723.5 5

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’23 812.75 8.25
DEC ’23 823.25 5.5
JUL ’24 806.75 7.75

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’23 858.5 3.75
DEC ’23 873.5 4
SEP ’24 828 5.25

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4579.25 -22

Crude Oil

OCT ’23 81.58 0.66

Gold

OCT ’23 1969.7 10.5

  • December corn is trading slightly higher but has backed off of gains in the overnight that were caused by a new attack by Russia on Ukraine’s Danube port.
  • The 7-day forecast has turned wetter since yesterday with nearly the entire Corn Belt and northwestern Plains expected to receive a good drink.
  • The June Crushings report showed that corn used in ethanol production was 441.5 mb, up slightly from May and in line with expectations. Ethanol margins have improved since June.
  • Slovakia is planning to expand its capacity for Ukrainian grain transit with its rail border crossings, but Russia seems intent on targeting Ukrainian grain storage and transportation.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning along with soybean meal and oil as trade focuses almost entirely on the August forecast which is showing much cooler and wetter conditions.
  • If this favorable two week forecast holds up, it will be difficult for soybeans to rally very much as the conditions will significantly impact yields.
  • June soybean crush was released and showed 174.6 mb crushed, slightly higher than a year ago but below trade expectations. 
  • Ukrainian vegetable oil exports totaled 549,400 mt in July, 7% higher than the previous month, but now with exports nearly impossible, that number should be much lower this month.

  • Wheat is trading higher this morning although it did back off highs from overnight which were also caused by the attack on Ukraine’s Danube port.
  • Traders have become a bit numb to attacks on Ukrainian ports at this point, and although the market might rally, focus quickly turns back to winter wheat harvest and weather.
  • The quarterly flour milling report was released and all wheat ground for flour was at 222 mb, down 2% from the 1st quarter grind and down 4% from the 2nd quarter of 2022.
  • The US has heard rumors that Russia is prepared to return to talks on renegotiating the Black Sea grain deal, but there is no evidence yet.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: August 1, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’23 503.25 -0.75
DEC ’23 512 -1
DEC ’24 519.25 2

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1332.25 0.5
JAN ’24 1341.75 1.25
NOV ’24 1263.25 11.5

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’23 657 -8.75
DEC ’23 683.75 -8
JUL ’24 722 -5.25

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’23 806 -6.75
DEC ’23 822.25 -7.25
JUL ’24 802 -2.5

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’23 854.75 -1
DEC ’23 869 -0.5
SEP ’24 824 -24.5

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4605 -9.5

Crude Oil

OCT ’23 80.98 -0.34

Gold

OCT ’23 1971.6 -17.7

  • Corn is trading unchanged to slightly lower this morning as temperatures will remain mild and rain chances will increase for much of the Midwest through this weekend.
  • Crop conditions released Monday afternoon reported US corn good to excellent ratings at 55% down 2% from last week and down 6% from the same week last year.
  • 84% of the US corn crop was in the pollination stage of production as of Sunday, this is 2% ahead of the five-year average. 
  • December 2023 corn futures were 18-1/4 cents higher in the month of July.

  • Soybeans are slightly higher this morning as prices look to rebound after Monday’s sharply lower trade. 
  • Private exporters reported the sale of 132,000 tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year on Monday. This continued the trend of export sales from last week.
  • US soybeans were rated 52% good to excellent as of Sunday July 30th, this was down 2% from last weeks rating and 8% below ratings the same week a year ago.
  • 50% of the US soybean crop was setting pods according to Monday’s crop progress report, above normal precipitation forecast for the entire Midwest into mid-August should aid in filling pods. 

  • Wheat futures are lower across the board again this morning with Chicago futures leading the way lower.
  • US Spring wheat condition ratings fell 7% from last week coming in at 42% good to excellent as of Sunday July 30th, this is down from 70% in the same week last year. 
  • US winter wheat harvest was 80% complete as of this week, this is 3% behind the five-year average. 
  • In the week ending July 27th the US inspected 581,000 tons of wheat, this up 220,000 tons from the previous week. 

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: July 31, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’23 508.25 -12.75
DEC ’23 517.25 -13
DEC ’24 520.75 -6.25

Soybeans

AUG ’23 1472.25 -14.5
NOV ’23 1357 -25.5
NOV ’24 1274 -12

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’23 681.5 -22.75
DEC ’23 708 -20
JUL ’24 743.5 -11

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’23 841 -15.25
DEC ’23 854.75 -14.5
JUL ’24 824.25 -8.25

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’23 881.5 -14.5
DEC ’23 892.75 -14.25
SEP ’24 848.5 -4

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4611.5 5

Crude Oil

SEP ’23 81.25 0.67

Gold

OCT ’23 1977.9 -2.1

  • Corn is trading lower this morning as temperatures begin to decline from last week’s highs and rain chances for the Corn Belt improve over the next 7 days.
  • Crop conditions will be released this afternoon and between last week’s heat and dryness, it is expected that corn’s good to excellent rating will fall from last week’s 57%.
  • In Brazil, the corn harvest is advancing quickly which is putting pressure on prices globally. As of July 22, 47.9% of the national crop has been harvested.
  • Last week, funds were buyers of corn and bought 73,529 contracts which took them from a net short position to a net long position of 26,603 contracts.

  • Soybeans are significantly lower this morning along with soybean meal and oil as the 8 to 14-day forecast is  showing a cooler, wetter pattern that would be beneficial for yields.
  • In Brazil, demand for soybeans internationally has been rising with their discounted prices. Processors there are showing higher needs for the raw material in the spot market because of expectations for higher demand abroad.
  • Brazilian 2024 soybean meal production is expected to reach 42.3 mmt, 3% above the previous year. Total soy crushing is seen at 55 mmt for 2024.
  • Friday’s CFTC data showed funds as buyers last week, increasing their let long position by 24,925 contracts to 120,739 contracts.

  • Wheat futures are lower this morning with Chicago leading the way despite more military activity reported in the way of a strike on another grain facility in Kherson.
  • Traders seem unmoved by happenings in Russia and Ukraine lately and as a result, much of the war premium has dropped off of futures prices.
  • SovEcon raised the Russian wheat crop forecast to 87.1 mmt as yields are now expected to improve. The previous projection for the Russian crop was 86.8 mmt, and this news is likely adding bearish pressure.
  • Friday’s CFTC showed funds buying back 14,086 contracts which still maintains a short position, but decreased it to 40,332 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: July 28, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’23 526.25 -7
DEC ’23 535.75 -6.5
DEC ’24 531.5 -3

Soybeans

AUG ’23 1510.25 -21.75
NOV ’23 1386.25 -11.75
NOV ’24 1290.75 -3.25

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’23 702.75 -10
DEC ’23 725.75 -9.75
JUL ’24 751.75 -7

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’23 858.75 -7.75
DEC ’23 870.5 -7.5
JUL ’24 832.25 -6

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’23 897.75 -6.5
DEC ’23 908.25 -6.75
SEP ’24 852.5 1.25

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4585.75 21.5

Crude Oil

SEP ’23 79.86 -0.23

Gold

OCT ’23 1974.5 9.2

  • Corn is trading lower this morning after scattered showers fell across the Midwest. Radar is showing rain falling over northern Illinois this morning with more expected in Wisconsin and Michigan.
  • For states in the Corn Belt that have not received these showers and are dealing with triple digit temperatures, crops are struggling, but NOAA is predicting a wetter and cooler forecast for August.
  • In Brazil, September corn on the Bovespa exchange is trading near the equivalent of $5.11 a bushel, near the lowest level in 2 years and serious competition for US exports.
  • The new drought monitor was released and showed corn crops experiencing drought rose by 4 points from the previous week to 59% following three consecutive weeks of decline. 

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning, perhaps finding some technical resistance after the rally. Soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is trading higher.
  • According to the drought monitor, 20% of soybean areas are dealing with D2 drought conditions 0r worse, and if the weather doesn’t improve in August, yields could be very poor.
  • Only 83.5 million acres of US soybeans were planted in 2023 and with crop conditions poor, this year’s production will likely fall short of demand. At least there is Brazil with seemingly enough s0ybeans for everyone.
  • A silo blast in southern Brazil killed 8 people and 1 is still missing. The cause of the explosion is unknown, and the people killed were foreign workers, mostly Haitian.

  • Wheat is trading lower this morning along with the rest of the grain complex, likely due to the spring wheat tour which is seeing yields at 47.4 bpa, not great, but above the USDA’s estimate of 47.0 bpa.
  • Big concerns are in South Dakota, Montana, and the southern half of the Canadian Prairies as they deal with extremely dry conditions and very little rain forecast over the next 7 days.
  • The way things are looking right now, Ukraine will hardly be able to export any grain now that the Black Sea and Danube River route are closed to them. 73% of Ukraine’s grain was shipped out of the Black Sea.
  • The Eu has cut their soft wheat crop estimate by 2.5 mmt and harvest is now seen at 126.4 mmt, below a June estimate for 128.9 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: July 27, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’23 541 0.75
DEC ’23 549.25 1
DEC ’24 534.5 2.5

Soybeans

AUG ’23 1564.5 18.25
NOV ’23 1424.5 4.5
NOV ’24 1312 5.25

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’23 725.25 5.25
DEC ’23 748 5.75
JUL ’24 764.75 4

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’23 883.25 18
DEC ’23 894.25 17
JUL ’24 849.75 12

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’23 911.5 15.75
DEC ’23 921.75 14.25
SEP ’24 851.25 -16.25

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4621.5 26.25

Crude Oil

SEP ’23 79.49 0.71

Gold

OCT ’23 1997.5 7.8

  • Corn is trading just slightly higher this morning but was lower overnight as weather forecasts remain mixed with showers for some parts of the Corn Belt but mostly hot and dry.
  • US ethanol stocks rose by 0.3% to 23.228m bbl, and analyst were expecting 23.17 mln bbl. Plant production was 1.09 m b/d compared to survey averages of 1.058.
  • Last night, Russia struck port infrastructure in Ukraine’s Odesa region again, killing a security guard and damaging a cargo terminal.
  • A severe dry spell in Indonesia has spurred farmers there to switch from rice to corn with the government planning to import rice.

  • Soybeans are higher this morning and overnight the Nov contract got 13 cents away to reaching the contract high at 14.48. Soybean meal is higher but soybean oil is bear spread with the two front months lower and deferred months higher.
  • Analysts have raised their projections for 2024 palm oil prices on tight supplies amid the El Nino weather pattern. This could be supportive for soybean oil.
  • The Midwest is expected to have two more days of extreme heat before temperatures drop, and there is not much rain forecast outside of Wisconsin and Michigan over the next 7-days.
  • The National Weather Service and DTN’s forecasts for August are a bit at odds with NOAA expecting above normal rains in the southern Midwest while DTN sees better chances in the western Plains with above normal temperatures. The USDA’s last yield guess was 52.0 bpa which may be too high.

  • Wheat is trading higher this morning with KC leading the way up followed by Minn after Russia struck the port city of Odesa again and the crop tour data is released.
  • Day 2 of the crop tour covers North Dakota which was hit by drought and therefore shows an average yield of  45.7 bpa compared to last years tour data of 47.7 bpa.
  • Russia has said that it will provide free grain to six African countries over the next three to four months in the amounts of between 25,000 and 50,000 tons each.
  • Agritel sees France soft wheat production up 3% year over year in 2023 with production at 34.8 mmt, 1.1 mmt higher than the previous year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: July 26, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’23 550.75 -6.75
DEC ’23 558.75 -6.5
DEC ’24 539.5 -2

Soybeans

AUG ’23 1518.5 3
NOV ’23 1421 1
NOV ’24 1307 -1

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’23 742.75 -17.5
DEC ’23 763.25 -17.5
JUL ’24 775.5 -12.75

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’23 900 -12.75
DEC ’23 909 -11.75
JUL ’24 860 -9.25

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’23 927.25 -4.75
DEC ’23 935.25 -6.75
SEP ’24 860.5 -7

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4589.75 -6.25

Crude Oil

SEP ’23 78.79 -0.84

Gold

OCT ’23 1994.1 11

  • Corn is trading lower this morning as scattered showers appear on the radar for Minnesota and Wisconsin with heavier rains to be expected there over the next few days, but the Corn Belt’s forecast remains hot and dry.
  • In Brazil, September corn on the Bovespa exchange is trading near the US equivalent of 5.07 a bushel due to their record 2023 corn crop, and the US is struggling to compete with exports.
  • Estimates for ethanol production and stockpiles sees production lower than last week at 1.058 million barrels per day, and the stockpile estimates slightly higher than a week ago.
  • Brazilian corn exports were seen reaching 6.43 mmt in July compared to an estimated 6.8 mmt forecast the previous week.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning led by gains in soybean meal while soybean oil trades lower. The weather outlook into August has trade worried about final yields which has helped support prices.
  • While Brazil’s record soy crop has made US soy exports difficult, good demand for soy products domestically has been a very bearish factor sending new crop contracts nearly to contract highs.
  • The current incentive to crush soybeans is near its highest levels on record due to big boosts in the values of soybean meal and oil.
  • 19% of the Midwest is in D2 to D4 drought conditions with soy crops also dealing with hot temperatures. Some analysts believe that the USDA’s estimate for 52.0 bpa soybeans is too high.

  • Wheat is trading lower this morning as traders tire of news out of the Black Sea and focus on the crop at home with new yield estimates from the wheat tour.
  • It is day 2 of the Wheat Quality Council’s Spring Wheat and Durham Tour, and yesterday’s tour ended with a yield estimate of 48.1 bpa which is below last year, but was higher than the USDA’s estimate of 47 bpa.
  • The International Monetary Fund said that the suspension of the Black Sea grain deal could drive global prices up by 10-15%, but much of this is likely already priced in.
  • The Russian wheat harvest has been slowed by heavy rains, and only 14% of planted areas have been harvested as of July 20, compared to 22% last year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: July 25, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’23 549 -11.5
DEC ’23 556.75 -11.5
DEC ’24 539.5 -5.5

Soybeans

AUG ’23 1509.25 -14
NOV ’23 1409.25 -15.25
NOV ’24 1297.5 -16.5

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’23 747 -10.5
DEC ’23 766.25 -11.25
JUL ’24 776.25 -10.5

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’23 916.25 -2.25
DEC ’23 923.25 -2
JUL ’24 864 -1

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’23 933.5 -2.5
DEC ’23 942 -2.5
SEP ’24 871.5 6.25

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4589 5.5

Crude Oil

SEP ’23 79.03 0.29

Gold

OCT ’23 1974.4 -7.2

  • Corn is trading lower this morning after yesterday’s rally that was led by more attacks by Russia in Ukraine and the hot and dry forecast.
  • Yesterday, the USDA said that 57% of the corn crop is rated good to excellent compared to 57% last week and 61% a year ago. 68% of the crop is silking.
  • Temperatures for most apart from northeastern areas of the Corn Belt will reach the 90’s today, and triple digits are expected in Kansas. Drought remains a big concern.
  • On Monday, Russia destroyed grain warehouses on the Danube River, and now nearly 30 ships have dropped anchor near Ukraine’s Izmail port city.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning and have given back most of yesterday’s gains as prices meet resistance near their December high and not far from their contract high.
  • Yesterday’s crop progress report showed soybeans at a 54% good to excellent rating which was down slightly from last week’s 55% and below last year’s 59%. 70% of soybeans are blooming compared to 56% last week, and 35% are setting pods.
  • Weather in the northwestern Plains and Midwest have better rain chances over the 6 to 10-day forecast along with milder temperatures that could help soybeans that are setting pods.
  • Yesterday’s export inspections report showed soybean inspections at 10.4 mb which puts total inspections at 1.844 bb, down 5% from last year.

  • Wheat is faring better than corn and soybeans this morning with Chicago only down slightly and KC a bit higher after yesterday’s rally.
  • A Russian diplomat has said that there are no talks on restoring the grain deal, and based on Russia’s actions in targeting grain facilities, it does not seem like an agreement will be struck anytime soon.
  • USDA’s crop progress was released yesterday afternoon and showed 49% of spring wheat rated good to excellent vs 51% last week. The winter wheat harvest advanced to 68% complete vs 56% last week.
  • Ukraine has asked the EU for more export transit with the Black Sea deal ended and Ukraine struggling to export what grain they have left.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: July 24, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’23 551.25 24.25
DEC ’23 560.5 24.25
DEC ’24 537.5 9

Soybeans

AUG ’23 1518.75 17.75
NOV ’23 1419.75 18
NOV ’24 1305.5 11.25

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’23 737.5 40
DEC ’23 757.25 39.5
JUL ’24 770.5 31.5

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’23 897 36.75
DEC ’23 903.25 36.5
JUL ’24 844.5 25.5

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’23 920.75 33.75
DEC ’23 926.25 29.75
SEP ’24 850 16.5

S&P 500

SEP ’23 4574 9.25

Crude Oil

SEP ’23 77.55 0.48

Gold

OCT ’23 1987.6 1.8

  • Corn is trading higher this morning on hot and dry weather this week and Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure.
  • Temperatures this week are expected to reach 90 and 100 degree temps this week with little rain expected, which will likely stress the corn crop during pollination.
  • According to Ukraine’s agricultural minister, Russia trying to make it difficult to export grain via the Danube River, which is now one of Ukraine’s primary export channels. 
  • Grain shipping traffic in the Black Sea has fallen 35% in the last week, since Russia has declared that all ships heading for Ukrainian waters could be deemed as carrying weapons.

  • Soybeans and soybean meal are trading higher this morning, gaining support from sharply higher soybean oil, and hot and dry weather.
  • Temperatures this week are expected to reach 90 and 100 degree temps this week with little rain expected, which will likely add stress to the already struggling areas.
  • Soybean oil this morning is following a sharply higher Malaysian palm oil market which saw over 3% gains yesterday’s trade.
  • The added war premium that is being injected into the corn and wheat markets is also likely affecting world veg oil prices due to Ukraine’s role as a lead sunflower oil and meal exporter.

  • Wheat is trading higher this morning, erasing Friday’s losses, as it gains support from the corn market and adds war premium.
  • Grain shipping traffic in the Black Sea has fallen 35% in the last week, since Russia has declared that all ships heading for Ukrainian waters could be deemed as carrying weapons.
  • According to Ukraine’s agricultural minister, Russia trying to make it difficult to export grain via the Danube River, which is now one of Ukraine’s primary export channels. 
  • Many insurers have suspended coverage for grain shipments from Ukraine except from smaller ports along the Danube.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.