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Opening Update: October 16, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 493.5 0.25
MAR ’24 508.75 0.25
DEC ’24 520.5 -0.75

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1282.5 2.25
JAN ’24 1302.25 2.25
NOV ’24 1251.25 -0.5

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 587.5 7.75
MAR ’24 613.25 7
JUL ’24 640.25 3.5

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 672.75 3.75
MAR ’24 682.5 4
JUL ’24 691 2.75

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 725.25 3.25
MAR ’24 749 3
SEP ’24 778.75 -3

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4369.75 12.5

Crude Oil

DEC ’23 86.45 0.1

Gold

DEC ’23 1928.3 -13.2

  • Corn is starting off the week relatively unchanged as the December contract struggles to break 5 dollars amid producer selling.
  • Last week’s WASDE report was friendly with a national yield guess of 173.0 bpa. Some producers reported better than expected yields, but original expectations likely weren’t that good.
  • In Brazil, a severe drought is disrupting barge traffic on a river in the Amazon, and barges are having to reduce their loads by as much as 50% to navigate safely in the shallow waters.
  • Non-commercials began to unwind part of their net short position last week buying back 46,742 contracts and reducing their short position to 112,691 contracts. 

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning but have backed off a few cents from their overnight highs. Soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is higher thanks to higher palm oil.
  • US September soybean crush is expected near 160.5 mb which would be 1.5% higher compared to September of last year, but 0.6% lower than a month ago.
  • Brazilian farmers have planted 17.35% of the 23/24 soybean area which compares with 22.60% at this time last year. Conditions are very dry in northern Brazil which is likely causing delays.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds whittling away at their long position by selling 2,831 contracts and leaving them net long just 2,170 contracts.

  • Wheat is trading higher this morning with Chicago leading the way with gains amid global weather issues in major wheat producing countries.
  • Russia has reportedly destroyed 300,000 tons of grain since July between attacks on ships and ports. Despite Russia backing out of the grain deal, Ukraine is still shipping out grains via their own corridor.
  • Heavy rains in China are expected to disrupt wheat planting over the next 10 days. This comes as Australia and Argentina, two large exporters, deal with severe dryness.
  • Last Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials adding to their short position by selling 5,547 contracts and increasing their net short position to 104,335 contracts, unusually large for this time of year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: October 13, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 497.25 1.25
MAR ’24 512.75 1.25
DEC ’24 523.75 1

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1295.75 5.75
JAN ’24 1315.5 6.75
NOV ’24 1260.5 0.75

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 579.5 8
MAR ’24 608.25 6.75
JUL ’24 641.25 5

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 682.5 7.5
MAR ’24 691.75 7.75
JUL ’24 700 6.5

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 731 7.5
MAR ’24 755 7.75
SEP ’24 785 3.25

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4375 -5.5

Crude Oil

DEC ’23 84.77 2.97

Gold

DEC ’23 1905.1 22.1

  • Corn is starting the day off higher on the heels of yesterday’s friendly WASDE report and has now posted nearly a 30 cent gain since its low on September 19th.
  • There have been continued reports of delayed harvest work as rain moves across a good portion of the Midwest, likely pushing the work to next week.
  • Yesterday’s WASDE report called corn yields at 173 bpa, below expectations, but total production was called near a record of 15.064 bb.
  • The South American weather pattern is still causing dryness in Argentina and northern Brazil while southern Brazil receives too much rain, and this could impact their production.

  • Soybeans are continuing to trade higher following yesterday’s much needed bullish WASDE report and with help from gains in both soybean meal and oil.
  • Yesterday’s report called soybean yields at 49.6 bpa, below expectations and last month’s estimate of 50.1 bpa, and ending stocks were kept at 220 mb, the lowest levels in 8 years. World ending stocks were reduced.
  • In Paraguay, planting is nearly 60% complete, but rain fall has been light and uneven and producers are waiting for more moisture before they finish planting.
  • Water levels on the Mississippi River have improved causing grain shipments to rise and barge rates to fall. Soybean shipments are up 53.1% week over week.

  • Wheat is continuing its higher trade from yesterday with support from corn and soybeans as the report yesterday was not particularly bullish for wheat.
  • Yesterday, the USDA said that US ending stocks increased from 615 mb to 670 mb due to a higher production estimate. Feed demand was increased by 30 mb to 120 mb.
  • With Australia’s dry weather, the USDA reduced the size of their wheat crop by 1.5 mmt to 24.8 mmt, down 38% from last year’s crop.
  • Ukraine’s grain harvest has advanced 31% from last year and is now at 35.6 mmt for the season starting July 1st.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: October 12, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 488.25 0.25
MAR ’24 503.75 0
DEC ’24 516.5 -0.75

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1257.75 5.25
JAN ’24 1277 4.75
NOV ’24 1240.25 0.75

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 558.25 2.25
MAR ’24 589.5 2.25
JUL ’24 626.25 1

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 669.25 2
MAR ’24 678 1.75
JUL ’24 688.25 2.25

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 722.25 4
MAR ’24 746 3.75
SEP ’24 777 -0.5

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4425.75 16

Crude Oil

DEC ’23 83.03 0.96

Gold

DEC ’23 1894.9 7.6

  • Corn is trading unchanged to slightly higher this morning as grains trade quietly ahead of today’s WASDE report which will be released at 11 a.m. central.
  • Estimates for today’s WASDE report have yields lower at 173.7 bpa and ending stocks lower as well at 2.148 billion bushels. World ending stocks are also expected to fall.
  • China is boosting their expected corn output for 23/24 to 288.94 mmt on higher yields. This would put output higher by 11 mmt than last year.
  • In Brazil, reports of restricted grain movement are popping up as drought conditions cause low water levels on the Amazon which has caused boats to run aground and get stuck.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning with support from higher soybean meal. Soybean oil is lower in the front months but higher in the deferred contracts.
  • Average estimates for today’s USDA report have yields at 49.9 bpa compared to 50.1 bpa last month with US ending stocks expected to increase, but world soybean stocks decreasing.
  • Low export sales this year have been the biggest hinderance to soybean prices with export commitments 32% lower than a year ago, but yesterday’s sale of 12.2 mb of soybeans to China and unknown may be showing that the US is entering its export window.
  • As in corn, the low water levels on the Amazon in South America are holding up soybean shipments which would be friendly to US exports.

  • Wheat is slightly higher this morning but still near its lowest levels in two years. The continuing problem is poor export demand as Russia sells its wheat cheaply.
  • Expectations for today’s WASDE report are for US ending stocks to increase from 615 mb to 646 mb, but that number could end up being higher.
  • China has been looking to import wheat after heavy rains damaged its harvest, and this occurrence could explain the surprise US sale of wheat to China last week.
  • England’s wheat crop has reportedly fallen by 10% to 12.81 mmt due to lower yields than expected, but planted acres were reduced as well.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: October 11, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 486.25 0.75
MAR ’24 501.75 0.5
DEC ’24 515.25 1

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1271.5 0
JAN ’24 1290.25 1
NOV ’24 1250.75 1.5

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 556.5 -2
MAR ’24 587.75 -2.25
JUL ’24 626.25 -2.5

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 668 -3.25
MAR ’24 676.75 -3.5
JUL ’24 690.25 0

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 722.25 -1.25
MAR ’24 747 0
SEP ’24 783 0.5

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4406.25 14.75

Crude Oil

DEC ’23 83.95 -0.18

Gold

DEC ’23 1886.7 11.4

  • Corn is trading slightly higher this morning ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report and following yesterday evening’s crop progress report.
  • The crop progress report was delayed due to Columbus Day, but the corn harvest was called at 34% complete compared to 23% last week, and good to excellent ratings were unchanged at 53%.
  • Estimates for tomorrow’s WASDE report have yields slightly lower at 173.7 bpa, and ending stocks slightly lower as well at 2.148 billion bushels.
  • The USDA’s attaché in Beijing lowered its estimate of Chinese corn imports from 23.0 mmt to 20.0 mmt, and November corn on the Dalian exchange closed at its lowest levels in three months.

  • Soybeans are slightly lower this morning despite both soybean meal and oil trading higher. Crop progress said that the soybean harvest was ahead of pace for this year.
  • Yesterday, the USDA said that 43% of the bean crop was harvested compared to 23% last week, with crop ratings down a point to 51% good to excellent.
  • Average estimates for tomorrow’s WASDE report have yields at 50.0 bpa compared to 50.1 bpa last month, but ending stocks are expected to increase slightly to 233 mb from 220 mb last month.
  • Supplies of soybeans in Brazil appear to be tightening, giving the US a good opportunity to export beans. China has been an active buyer out of the PNW for October through December.

  • All three wheat contracts are trading lower this morning and are near their lowest prices in two years as the US struggles to find export demand.
  • Yesterday’s crop progress report said that 57% of winter wheat has been planted compared to 50% last week and 53% a year ago. 29% of the winter wheat has emerged .
  • UN officials will visit Moscow to continue talks about the Black Sea grain deal, but so far Ukraine doesn’t seem to be running into much trouble exporting grain on their own.
  • Estimates for tomorrow’s WASDE report are that wheat ending stocks in the US will increase slightly to 649 mb from 615 mb, but that world ending stocks will decrease slightly as multiple countries deal with adverse weather.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: October 10, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 484.75 -3.5
MAR ’24 500 -3.75
DEC ’24 513.25 -3

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1256.25 -8
JAN ’24 1274 -8.5
NOV ’24 1240.5 -10

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 561.25 -11.5
MAR ’24 593 -10.5
JUL ’24 630 -10.75

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 674.25 -11.75
MAR ’24 683.25 -11.5
JUL ’24 695.75 -8.5

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 721.25 -9.75
MAR ’24 745.75 -9.5
SEP ’24 791.75 9.75

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4374 5.25

Crude Oil

DEC ’23 84.25 -0.35

Gold

DEC ’23 1868.6 4.3

  • Corn started off the day lower following the attack on Israel over the weekend and ahead of the WASDE report on Thursday. Prices have leveled off from Friday’s high.
  • Estimates for Thursday’s USDA report have yields slightly lower at 173.5 bpa compared to 173.8 bpa, and production at 15.121 bb which is also slightly lower than the last estimate.
  • Brazilian summer corn is reportedly 51.2% planted which compares with 44.5% a year ago and the 5-year average of 40.1%. The planted acres are slightly smaller than the previous year.
  • Indonesia is set to import 250,000 tons of corn for animal feed to anticipate the El Nino pattern and will source this corn from multiple countries.

  • Soybeans are starting the day lower as well and are above the level of support at 12.56-3/4 in Nov but dipped below that low overnight getting down to 12.54-1/4.
  • Both soybean meal and oil are lower this morning and the recent selloff in the soy products is limiting processing returns and is likely slowing crush demand.
  • Estimates for Thursday’s WASDE report call for soybean yields to fall slightly yo 49.9 bpa from 50.1 bpa in last month’s estimate. Production is expected to be lowered slightly to 4.134 bb.
  • Brazil is now 10.1% planted which is nearly equal to the progress from a week ago. This comes as excessive rains and fungal infections in parts of the country limit progress.

  • Wheat is lower this morning along with the rest of the grain complex as it stays in a narrow trading range.
  • Thursday’s WASDE report should show a higher production estimate for US wheat near 1.812 billion bushels, but changes could be made on the demand side as well.
  • UN officials will visit Moscow to continue talks about the Black Sea grain deal, but so far Ukraine doesn’t seem to be running into much trouble exporting grain on their own.
  • While Argentina and Australia’s wheat crops that are struggling with drought, Kazakhstan’s wheat quality is being hurt significantly by heavy rains.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: October 9, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 495.25 3.25
MAR ’24 510.5 3.25
DEC ’24 521.25 1.75

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1273.25 7.25
JAN ’24 1291.75 7.25
NOV ’24 1259 3.5

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 577.75 9.5
MAR ’24 607.75 9.75
JUL ’24 641.75 7.75

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 682.5 8.75
MAR ’24 691.75 9
JUL ’24 701 8.75

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 732.75 12.25
MAR ’24 755.5 10.5
SEP ’24 782 -8

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4314.75 -26.75

Crude Oil

DEC ’23 84.03 2.75

Gold

DEC ’23 1862.9 17.7

  • Corn is trading higher this morning with the December contract near its highest levels in a month despite good harvest progress over the weekend.
  • Israel has declared war on Hamas over the weekend after they attacked the Gaza Strip killing civilians, and now there are fears of fresh tensions between the US and oil-producing Middle Eastern countries.
  • In Brazil, the first crop corn is reportedly 28% planted, and in Argentina, only 14% planted with conditions still extremely dry.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials as buyers of corn by 9,173 contracts, reducing their net short position to 159,433 contracts.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning after a lower close on Friday which saw November soybeans down by 9 cents on the week. Both soybean meal and oil are higher this morning.
  • The soy complex is benefitting from higher crude oil which is likely a result of the war with Iran reportedly orchestrating the attacks. This may cause tension with the US.
  • China is back from their Golden Holiday week but found prices on the Dalian exchange sharply lower with November soybeans down 4.3% and at a new two month low.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials as sellers of 25,057 contracts reducing their net long position to a very small 5,001 contracts.

  • Wheat is trading higher along with the rest of the grain complex as prices continue to rebound from last week’s low.
  • Support comes from concern about tight world supplies as Argentina and Australia expect smaller crops due to poor weather, and the escalating fight between Ukraine and Russia.
  • Russia continued its attacks on Ukrainian grain facilities and a port in southern Ukraine as they continue to export their grain through their own corridor in the Black Sea.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials selling 2,396 contracts, increasing their net short position to 98,788 contracts. Funds hold a much larger short position than is typical for this time of year. 

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: October 6, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 496.75 -0.75
MAR ’24 511.75 -0.5
DEC ’24 521.25 -0.25

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1284.75 4
JAN ’24 1302.5 4
NOV ’24 1265.25 4

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 575.75 -2.5
MAR ’24 604 -3
JUL ’24 638.75 -3

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 688.75 -1.75
MAR ’24 697 -0.75
JUL ’24 701.5 -4.25

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 729.5 -2
MAR ’24 754 -1.25
SEP ’24 790 14

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4303 12.25

Crude Oil

DEC ’23 80.92 0.11

Gold

DEC ’23 1835.7 3.9

  • Corn is trading slightly higher to begin the day after posting solid gains at yesterday’s close reaching a one-month high of $4.97-1/2 for December.
  • Yesterday, the USDA reported good export sales of corn in the amount of 71.5 mb for both 23/24 and 24/25 with Mexico picking up the bulk of the business.
  • In South America, both Argentina and northern Brazil are too dry for planting while southern Brazil is dealing with flooding. 14% of the corn crop in Argentina is planted.
  • In the US, corn crops experiencing moderate to intense drought rose by one point from last week to 59%.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning along with both soybean meal and oil. November beans tested support on Tuesday and have closed higher each day after that.
  • The decline in prices of soy products has put pressure on soybeans and yesterday, December soybean oil made a new three-month low. This comes after the contract had 675 deliveries.
  • Prices found support yesterday after the export sales report showed better numbers than expected, and soybean meal exports were reportedly up 32% from a year ago with limited Argentinian supplies.
  • Barge shipments down the Mississippi River increased last week with barge rates declining, and soybean shipments were up 30.6% week over week.

  • Wheat is trading slightly higher along with the rest of the grain complex this morning as the momentum from yesterday’s higher closes carries into today.
  • Yesterday, there were some escalations in Ukraine with fresh Russian drone attack on two port cities, and news of a cargo ship registered to Turkey hit a mine in the Black Sea near Romania’s coast.
  • The dry weather patterns in Argentina and Australia may significantly impact their wheat crops, and Ukraine is talking about planting less wheat this season, so global supply may drop slightly.
  • Russia has raised their 2023 grain harvest forecast to 135 mmt with the wheat crop now expected at 90 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: October 5, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn
DEC ’23 483.5 -2.5
MAR ’24 498.75 -2.25
DEC ’24 511 -2.5
Soybeans
NOV ’23 1264.25 -8.75
JAN ’24 1283 -9.25
NOV ’24 1252 -9.5
Chicago Wheat
DEC ’23 563.25 3.25
MAR ’24 591.75 2.75
JUL ’24 626.5 3.5
K.C. Wheat
DEC ’23 672.5 6
MAR ’24 681 5.75
JUL ’24 687.75 3.25
Mpls Wheat
DEC ’23 717.75 6
MAR ’24 742.75 6
SEP ’24 780.25 4.25
S&P 500
DEC ’23 4287.5 -10.25
Crude Oil
DEC ’23 81.29 -1.26
Gold
DEC ’23 1835.5 0.7

  • Corn is trading lower this morning and remains in its tight trading range as harvest progresses across the country.
  • Yesterday, rain fell in South Dakota and Minnesota slowing harvest temporarily, and today some showers are expected throughout the Midwest, but this weekend should be dry.
  • A sale of 7.7 mb of corn was reported to Mexico yesterday, and today’s export sales report is expected to show at least 50 mb of export sales as of September 28.
  • US ethanol stocks fell by 0.7% to 21.884m Bbl compared to analyst expectations of 21.943. Plant production was 1.009m b/d vs an estimated 0.999m.

  • Soybeans are trading lower today as they continue their downward trend despite tight US stocks. Both soybean meal and oil are lower as well.
  • Both soy products have been trending lower and have pressured soybeans with October meal receiving a large number of deliveries, and lower palm oil, canola, and diesel futures.
  • Brazilian soy exports are expected to reach 6.71 mmt in October compared to 3.59 mmt at this time a year ago. Soymeal exports are expected to reach 2.13 mmt.
  • Estimates for today’s export sales report for soybeans are between 400k and 950k tons with an average guess of 670k tons.

  • Wheat is the only commodity trading higher this morning in the grain complex as prices hold above last week’s lows.
  • While today’s export sales report will likely show another low number for wheat, China’s purchase of 8.1 mb of SRW wheat from the US was encouraging and may show that the US is becoming more competitive with Russia.
  • The number of ships heading into the Black Sea to move Ukrainian grain has been increasing as Ukraine’s attacks on Crimea have pushed Russian vessels out of the area.
  • The drought in Argentina that impacted corn and soybean production is ongoing and is now threatening this year’s wheat crop. Argentina is the third largest exporter of wheat.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: October 4, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 486.25 -1.25
MAR ’24 501 -1.25
DEC ’24 514.5 0

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1279.5 6.75
JAN ’24 1298.25 6.25
NOV ’24 1261.75 -1.75

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 559.25 -9.25
MAR ’24 588.5 -9.25
JUL ’24 625 -7.75

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 675.5 -7.75
MAR ’24 682.75 -7.75
JUL ’24 689.75 -7.75

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 718.5 -7
MAR ’24 743 -5
SEP ’24 784 2.5

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4270 5.25

Crude Oil

DEC ’23 85.84 -1.6

Gold

DEC ’23 1840 -1.5

  • Corn is trading slightly lower this morning but within its tight trading range. Prices are already on the low side, but it has been good to see corn steady over the past few weeks with harvest ongoing.
  • Corn prices in Brazil have risen is September despite the end of the safrinha corn harvest and higher supplies as sellers have been reluctant so sell corn too cheaply.
  • A top US ethanol lobby is targeting California to approve a higher ethanol fuel blend of 15% to help lift demand.
  • In Brazil, the smaller first crop corn is making progress thanks to light rains but in Argentina, conditions are still too dry for early planting.

  • Soybeans are finally higher this morning after a big technical move yesterday in which the the low from June 28 was tested, but prices immediately rebounded.
  • Soybean meal is trading higher this morning while soybean oil is lower. Soybean oil has been getting pressured from lower prices in the palm oil market, but soybean meal has been in a downtrend as well.
  • Weather over the weekend should be favorable for harvest, but in the North there are chanced for sub-freezing temperatures.
  • Yesterday, China purchased 9.7 mb of soybeans which was encouraging given that they are on a holiday week. Overall, exports have been slow this season amid competition from Brazil.

  • All three wheat products are lower this morning as the trend lower continues. Last Friday’s grain stocks report kicked funds into further selling, and prices remain near the lowest levels in two years.
  • Yesterday, wheat managed to close higher amid a large selloff in the stock market and a new high for the year in the US Dollar Index, but those gains have not held.
  • China made a surprise purchase of US wheat yesterday of 8.1 mb which was encouraging and points to the US becoming more competitive, but Russian offers are still cheaper.
  • Two more ships have neem tracked headed to Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, and so far, 10 vessels have completed routes to those ports despite threats from Russia.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: October 3, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 486.5 -2.25
MAR ’24 501.75 -2
DEC ’24 514.75 -2.5

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1264.75 -12.25
JAN ’24 1284.75 -12
NOV ’24 1260.75 -6.75

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 566.5 1.75
MAR ’24 596 0
JUL ’24 630 -1

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 674.5 -2.25
MAR ’24 680.5 -4
JUL ’24 690.5 -1.75

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 718.25 -0.5
MAR ’24 743.75 2.25
SEP ’24 783 1.5

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4311.75 -12.5

Crude Oil

DEC ’23 86.77 -0.4

Gold

DEC ’23 1841.3 -5.9

  • Corn is trading lower to begin the day after a 12-cent gain yesterday, but prices are still rangebound and near their highest levels in months.
  • Yesterday, the USDA said that 82% of the corn crop was mature vs 70% a week ago and 73% a year ago as the dryness this season caused early maturity.
  • 23% of the corn crop is reportedly harvested which compares to the trade guess of 25% and 15% a week ago. 53% of the crop was rated good to excellent which was steady with a week ago.
  • Chinese markets are on holiday this week, but they are still able to buy corn with a purchase from the US yesterday and more frequent purchases from Brazil. 

  • Soybeans are trading lower as they struggle to find momentum as harvest begins despite extremely tight stocks. Both soybean meal and oil are lower this morning.
  •  Yesterday, the USDA said that 23% of the bean crop has been harvested which compares to the trade guess of 25% and 12% a week ago. Southern states are further ahead with harvest.
  • 86% of the soybean crop are dropping leaves compared to 73% a week ago, and 52% of the crop is rated good to excellent which was higher than the trade guess of 50% and 50% a week ago.
  • NASS reported that 169 mb of soybeans were crushed in August which was down significantly from the 184.8 mb in July as the prices of soy products falls.

  • Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago and KC higher but Minneapolis still slightly lower. Wheat has been slowly trying to regain its losses from Friday.
  • Yesterday afternoon, the USDA said that 40% of the winter wheat crop was planted which was in line with expectations and up from 26% a week ago. 15% of the crop is emerged.
  • Russia’s grain exports are seen at 1.6 times last season’s volumes at 17.7 million tons exported so far. Wheat shipments so far are at 13.5 million tons.
  • In the southern Hemisphere, countries such as Argentina and Australia are facing very dry conditions which are stressing the wheat crops. Australia’s production is expected to be reduced further.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.