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Opening Update: October 30, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 479.75 -1
MAR ’24 494 -1.25
DEC ’24 510.75 -1

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1300.5 3.25
JAN ’24 1323 3.5
NOV ’24 1279 4.75

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 567.75 -7.75
MAR ’24 595 -7.5
JUL ’24 628.25 -5.5

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 634.75 -8.25
MAR ’24 647 -8.75
JUL ’24 662 -8.25

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 713 -6.75
MAR ’24 732 -6
SEP ’24 769.25 -3.5

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4163.5 25.75

Crude Oil

DEC ’23 84.4 -1.14

Gold

DEC ’23 2003.7 5.2

  • Corn is trading slightly lower to begin the week, but prices remain very rangebound with the lack of fresh news.
  • Harvest activity was limited over the weekend with broad rains over the Midwest on Friday, rains from Oklahoma through Ohio on Sunday, and some ice and snow in areas of the northwestern Corn Belt.
  • The next seven days should be much drier for harvest with almost no rain forecast in the Corn Belt, allowing that work to get done.
  • In South America, there are big concerns over planting with northern Brazil and Argentina facing much drier than normal conditions and southern Brazil too wet. Argentina is 22% planted for corn and Brazil is 33% complete.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning but have faded from their larger gains over night. Support has come from weekend weather and higher soybean oil.
  • The snow and frosts in the northwestern Corn Belt could be damaging to any soybeans left in the field with harvest incomplete, but North Dakota and Minnesota are mostly finished with soybeans.
  • December soybean meal is lower today but still near its contract highs. There is a 28 dollar premium from Dec to March suggesting high demand and limited on hand supplies.
  • In China, March soybeans on the Dalian exchange ended 1.0% higher today at the equivalent of $16.07, a new one month high.

  • All three wheat contracts are trading lower this morning, but December KC wheat has made new contract lows as demand remains poor.
  • Russia’s Ag Ministry is now forecasting their wheat crop at 93.0 mmt which is far above the USDA’s previous guess of 85.0 mmt. Russia also continues to dominate export sales.
  • Ukraine’s grain exports for October are down nearly half year over year to 2.15 mmt after Russia exited the Black Sea grain deal. Ukraine has been forced to export via their own corridor.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials exiting a portion of their short position and buying back 12,153 contracts which reduced their net short position to 92,254 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: October 27, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn
DEC ’23 482.5 3.25
MAR ’24 496.25 3
DEC ’24 511.5 2
Soybeans
NOV ’23 1293 13.5
JAN ’24 1313.75 13.5
NOV ’24 1267.25 9.75
Chicago Wheat
DEC ’23 579 -0.5
MAR ’24 605.5 -0.5
JUL ’24 634.5 -2
K.C. Wheat
DEC ’23 652 -2.75
MAR ’24 662.75 -2.5
JUL ’24 674 -2.25
Mpls Wheat
DEC ’23 724.5 0.25
MAR ’24 743.5 0.75
SEP ’24 772.75 1.75
S&P 500
DEC ’23 4166.5 10
Crude Oil
DEC ’23 84.71 1.5
Gold
DEC ’23 1991.1 -6.3

  • Corn is trading higher this morning following crude oil higher after it was reported that The US hit targets in Syria overnight in retaliation to strikes against US positions in the Middle East.
  • Yesterday, it was reported that 3rd quarter GDP was above analyst expectations at 4.9%, and this caused traders to get nervous about the Fed keeping interest rates high.
  • Corn harvest has been going at a slow pace due to rains that have been moving through the Corn Belt, and there are more rains forecast over the next 7 days.
  • Barge shipments down the Mississippi River have increased to 562k tons compared to 496 the previous week, but barge rates have increased over the past week as well.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning with support from both soybean meal, oil and crude oil, but overall, soybeans have been rangebound for the past week.
  • Crush margins remain strong for soybeans as domestic demand stays stout, and soybean meal is back near contract highs improving margins further.
  • Indonesia’s flag carrier Garuda tested its first commercial flight that used jet fuel mixed with palm oil which is encouraging for the outlook of soybean oil as jet fuel.
  • Yesterday’s export sales for soybeans were impressive at 50.6 mb for 23/24, and export shipments were well above expectations at 87.6 mb. In addition, there was a sale to China of 110,000 mt.

  • Wheat is lower this morning after a heavy downpour in key areas of Argentina greatly improved the conditions of their wheat crop which has been affected by drought.
  • Yesterday, it was reported that Ukraine’s export corridor had been temporarily closed due to worries of explosives, but ship traffic is reportedly still moving through today.
  • Ukrainian grain harvest is running 40% ahead of last year with 43.4 mmt of grain harvested so far, and 22.4 mmt of that being wheat. Exports remain a challenge.
  • India has announced that it would sell more wheat in the open market to control local prices, and is looking at amounts near 300,000 tons from state reserves.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: October 26, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 479.5 -0.5
MAR ’24 494.25 -0.25
DEC ’24 510 -0.75

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1289 0.75
JAN ’24 1309 0.5
NOV ’24 1259.75 0

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 572.75 4.25
MAR ’24 599.25 3
JUL ’24 630.25 1.25

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 651.25 2.25
MAR ’24 661 1.5
JUL ’24 672.25 1

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 724 3.25
MAR ’24 744 4.25
SEP ’24 771.5 0.5

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4177.25 -32.5

Crude Oil

DEC ’23 83.87 -1.52

Gold

DEC ’23 1996.9 2

  • Corn is trading slightly lower this morning after four consecutively lower closes as prices are under pressure from harvest and some reports of better than expected yields.
  • There has been some outside pressure from equity markets as the strength of the US economy lately has trade concerned that the Fed will leave interest rates higher for a longer period of time.
  • Yesterday’s ethanol production report showed that the US increased production to 1.040 million barrels a day which was the 2nd highest ever for this time frame and the highest production in the past 9 weeks.
  • The average guess for today’s corn export sales are 905k tons as sales have improved slightly but the majority of exports have been to Mexico.

  • Soybeans are trading slightly higher this morning with early support from higher soybean oil. Yesterday’s trade helped expand crush margins by another 10 cents.
  • Soybean meal has moved sharply higher recently due to the US picking up soybean meal export demand that was left by Argentina’s lack of production, but futures may have gotten too overbought causing the small selloff.
  • While South America remains very dry with the 10-day forecast showing very little moisture, there are some small chances for rain in key areas that could pressure soybeans.
  • Today’s export sales report is expected to be solid for soybeans with the average trade guess near 1,010k tons following good inspections and sales to China.

  • All three wheat contracts are trading higher this morning, but KC wheat made a new contract low overnight so the buying may be more technical with oversold technicals.
  • A large amount of pressure in KC wheat has come from significant rains falling in the southern Plains recently which gives new winter wheat crops the moisture they need ahead of winter.
  • Ukraine is hoping to export at least 1 million metric tons of grain through their new Black Sea corridor for the month of October as their defense from Russia in the area gets stronger.
  • In the Czech Republic, estimates for this years grain harvest has been seen at 7.40 million tonnes in September which was above July estimates.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: October 25, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 483.25 -0.75
MAR ’24 497.75 -0.25
DEC ’24 512.5 -1.25

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1295.75 0.5
JAN ’24 1315 0.5
NOV ’24 1263.25 1

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 582 1.5
MAR ’24 609.5 2
JUL ’24 638.5 1

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 663 0
MAR ’24 671.75 0
JUL ’24 681.75 0

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 733.75 5.5
MAR ’24 752.5 5.25
SEP ’24 774.75 -9.25

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4258.25 -13

Crude Oil

DEC ’23 83.59 -0.15

Gold

DEC ’23 1983.6 -2.5

  • Corn is trading lower this morning after three consecutively lower closes due to harvest pressure and some outside pressure from lower crude oil.
  • Yesterday, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 117,200 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 23/24 marketing year, but this sale didn’t have much effect on the market as traders look for exports to destinations like China.
  • Ethanol production for the week ending October 20 is expected to be higher than last week at 1.043 m b/d with the stockpile average estimate at 21.236 m bbl vs 21.112m a week ago.
  • The USDA attaché in Ukraine sees its 23/24 corn crop at 30.7 mmt which would be a larger production amount than the previous year.

  • Soybeans are mixed this morning with the two front months slightly lower but deferred contracts higher after yesterday’s solid gains. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher.
  • December soybean meal made new contract highs overnight as momentum from strong US exports of meal continues.
  • Some analysts are already revising their estimates of South American production to be lower amid the dry conditions that Argentina and northern Brazil are dealing with during planting.
  • Yesterday, China signed a US agricultural purchase agreement that would include them buying billions of dollars worth of agricultural goods, mostly soybeans, during a ceremony in Iowa.

  • Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago and KC lower but Minneapolis higher. KC is nearing contract lows while Minn is faring better due to better demand for high protein wheat.
  • Ukraine announced that 700,000 tons of grain have been exported through their own humanitarian corridor since August, with 30 ships having left Ukrainian ports.
  • EU soft wheat exports fell by 22% in the season through October 22 at just 9.33 mt vs 12 mt last year.
  • Russian grain production is expected to rise further to 600,000 tons this year as many other countries deal with lower production due poor weather. Russia continues to dominate export sales.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: October 24, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 487.75 -2.5
MAR ’24 502 -2
DEC ’24 516.25 -2

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1290.5 3.75
JAN ’24 1308.75 3.25
NOV ’24 1261.75 2.75

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 583.25 -4
MAR ’24 611 -4
JUL ’24 640 -5.25

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 663.25 -7.5
MAR ’24 672.5 -7.75
JUL ’24 683 -7.5

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 733.5 -4.25
MAR ’24 752.75 -4.25
SEP ’24 780.25 -3.75

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4262 20.25

Crude Oil

DEC ’23 85.67 0.2

Gold

DEC ’23 1982.7 -11.7

  • Corn is trading slightly lower this morning which would be the third consecutively lower day due to harvest pressure and yesterday’s crop progress report which saw harvest advancing.
  • Harvest was seen at 59% harvested as of October 22 which was in line with trade expectations and the pace from a year ago, but ahead of the 5-year average.
  • Yesterday’s big selloff in the cattle complex following the bearish Cattle on Feed report likely added some pressure to corn yesterday.
  • In Brazil, corn is now 63% planted which is ahead of the 5-year average of 58%, but their corn acres will be fewer than last year. In Argentina, just 18% of the crop has been planted which is down from the average of 29%.

  • Soybeans are working higher this morning after two consecutively lower closes with support from soybean meal and strong export inspections yesterday.
  • Yesterday’s crop progress report shower soybeans at 76% harvested which was slightly lower than trade expectations of 77%, but above the 5-year average of 67%.
  • Soybeans were under pressure yesterday due to forecasts of rain in South America, but only light showers were reported with most areas getting missed.
  • Brazilian farmers have been reluctant to sell their new soybeans with prices so much lower than a year ago. StoneX has estimated that 25% of the new soy crop which is estimated at 164 mmt has been sold.

  • Wheat is trading lower this morning with KC posting the largest losses. SRW wheat has become more competitively priced which has gotten China’s buying interest.
  • Yesterday’s crop progress report showed that winter wheat is now 77% planted  which was lower than the average trade guess, but up from 68% a week ago. 53% of the crop is emerged, up from 39% a week ago.
  • Ukraine says that it has shipped 700k tons of grain so far through the temporary export corridor in the Black Sea with destinations primarily to Europe and Africa.
  • APK-Inform has cut their estimates of the 23/24 Ukrainian grain crop to 53.4 mmt from their previous estimate of 54.2 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: October 23, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 495.25 -0.25
MAR ’24 508.75 -0.25
DEC ’24 519.75 -0.25

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1293.5 -8.75
JAN ’24 1311 -9.25
NOV ’24 1260.25 -7.5

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 585.25 -0.75
MAR ’24 612 -1.5
JUL ’24 642.25 -3.25

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 669 -1
MAR ’24 677.5 -1.75
JUL ’24 687 -1.25

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 736.5 5.75
MAR ’24 755.25 2.25
SEP ’24 781.75 -6.5

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4227.75 -20.75

Crude Oil

DEC ’23 87.6 -0.48

Gold

DEC ’23 1989.8 -4.6

  • Corn is unchanged to slightly lower this morning as trade moves quietly. Notably, prices moved up to the 100-day moving average on Friday but backed off, showing it as important resistance.
  • Crop progress will be released later today, and harvest will have likely crossed the halfway mark, but rains last week could have delayed some work.
  • In a dry area of Argentina, farmers are beginning to shift their plans for an early corn crop to plant soybeans instead on about 494,000 acres.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials as net buyers of corn for the week by 3,821 contracts reducing their net short position to 108,870 contracts.

  • Soybeans are lower this morning as they get dragged down by lower soybean meal while soybean oil trades slightly higher. Crude oil is lower on the day.
  • Soybeans have trended higher over the past few weeks thanks to South American weather and improving soy exports, but harvest is still adding some pressure to the market.
  • Brazilian farmers have planted 29.84% of their 23/24 soybean area which is far below the 37.6% planted at this time last year as drought causes some to wait for better conditions.
  • Last week’s CFTC report showed non-commercials as sellers, flipping their position to a net short one. They sold 4,150 contracts and are now net short 1,984 contracts.

  • The wheat complex is mixed this morning with Chicago relatively unchanged, KC lower, and Minneapolis higher. 
  • There is some pressure on wheat today after beneficial rainfalls fell in drought stricken areas of Argentina which could boost production by millions of tonnes.
  • Ukrainian grain exports have fallen 30% year over year with just 8 mmt exported so far, and wheat making up 4.1 mmt of that, down 6.7% y/y.
  • Friday’s CFTC showed funds as sellers of just 72 contracts of wheat, increasing their net short position to 104,407 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: October 20, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 506 1
MAR ’24 517.25 0.25
DEC ’24 525.25 0.25

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1312.25 -3.25
JAN ’24 1328 -3.75
NOV ’24 1265.25 -3.75

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 596.5 2.5
MAR ’24 623 3.25
JUL ’24 651.75 4

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 680.5 4.25
MAR ’24 689.75 5.25
JUL ’24 698.75 6.25

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 740.75 1.75
MAR ’24 760.25 -1.25
SEP ’24 788.25 5.25

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4294.5 -8.5

Crude Oil

DEC ’23 89.62 1.25

Gold

DEC ’23 1994.8 14.3

  • Corn is trading unchanged to slightly higher this morning after its close above 5 dollars in December yesterday for the first time in over two months.
  • Since the WASDE report last week showing the USDA’s guess for the national yield at 173.0 bpa, corn has been in an uptrend gaining over 37 cents from its low.
  • As of last week’s CFTC report which showed funds heavily short by over 100,000 contracts, many of those positions would be underwater by now which could cause more short covering and higher prices.
  • While recent rains have caused water levels on the Mississippi River to improve slightly, the longer term forecast is dry and those low water levels are still a concern.

  • Soybeans are beginning the day lower as the December and January contracts struggle to break above their 100-day moving averages. 
  • Soybean meal is slightly lower while soybean oil is higher, and crush margins overall have improved significantly over the past month driving domestic demand.
  • This week has revealed a number of bullish news pieces with export inspections, NOPA crush, and export sales all stronger than expected. Open interest has increased as well, and Nov beans could be on track for a 30 cent plus gain on the week.
  • Brazilian producers are becoming more concerned with the El Nino pattern which is causing very hot and dry conditions in both Brazil and Argentina, causing a bulk of plantings to be delayed.

  • Wheat is the only commodity trading higher this morning between corn and soybeans with December Chicago wheat challenging the 6-dollar level for the first time in over a month.
  • As in corn, funds hold a very large short position in wheat and with prices seemingly recovering, funds will likely need to short cover.
  • The Brazilian 23/24 wheat crop is seen at just 10.5 mmt, down 5.9% from the previous estimate due to dryness, and Argentina’s wheat crop is now rated 47% poor to very poor due to drought, up 5 points from last week.
  • Australia has been dry as well with its wheat production slashed significantly, but recent rains across the country could improve production by several million tons.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: October 19, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 492 0
MAR ’24 504.75 -1.75
DEC ’24 516.5 -1.75

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1316 5
JAN ’24 1331.25 2
NOV ’24 1264.75 -1.75

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 579.5 -0.75
MAR ’24 606.75 -1.25
JUL ’24 636.25 -2.25

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 667.5 -3
MAR ’24 676.5 -2.5
JUL ’24 685.5 -1.75

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 732.75 -0.75
MAR ’24 754 -0.75
SEP ’24 782 -1

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4338.5 -3.75

Crude Oil

DEC ’23 86.28 -0.99

Gold

DEC ’23 1962.5 -5.8

  • Corn is beginning the day slightly lower after yesterday’s gains. Outside influences such as the war in Israel and fears about the economy could be creating some risk off mentality.
  • Yesterday’s EIA report showed ethanol production increasing to 1.035 billion barrels per day, and stocks still managed to fall to the lowest levels since 2021 despite the higher production.
  • The trade range for today’s export sales report in corn is between 500 and 1,100k tons with an average guess of 835k tons. The majority of US corn exports have gone to Mexico.
  • China is moving closer to planting commercial GMO corn after having 37 GMO seed varieties approved in a further effort to be more self sustainable.

  • Soybeans are mixed this morning with front months higher and back months slightly lower. Support is coming from an impressive move in soybean meal with big gains yesterday while soybean oil is slightly lower.
  • After Argentina’s drought last season and production of soybean meal cut so much, it seems like the US has picked up some of that business after all as shown by the tick up in futures prices.
  • With meal prices now up over $50/ton since October, crush margin has improved by over 60 cents per bushel in the past two weeks.
  • Brazilian grain exporters are being forced to re-route some cargoes of grain as the drought lowers water levels on Amazonian rivers causing barges to get stuck.

  • Wheat is trading slightly lower this morning along with corn as markets trade cautiously with an eye on the lower crude oil today. 
  • Yesterday, wheat posted solid gains with world weather in wheat growing countries adding to the bullishness. Funds were likely covering a portion of their large short position yesterday.
  • The Australian wheat crop is expected to fall by 40 to 45% this year due to drought, and India’s production is expected to fall as well which may cause them to become a net importer.
  • Export sales of wheat in today’s report are expected to be between 350 and 800k tons with the average guess at 585k tons. Rumors have been circulating that China is looking for more US wheat.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: October 18, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 492.5 3.5
MAR ’24 507 3.25
DEC ’24 518.5 2

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1304.25 7.5
JAN ’24 1322.75 6.5
NOV ’24 1264.75 4.25

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 576.25 5.75
MAR ’24 604.25 5.5
JUL ’24 634.75 3.5

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 671.5 4.75
MAR ’24 680.5 4.75
JUL ’24 688 3.5

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 733 5.25
MAR ’24 754.75 5
SEP ’24 780 -1.75

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4382.75 -19

Crude Oil

DEC ’23 87.74 2.3

Gold

DEC ’23 1958.2 22.5

  • Corn is trading higher this morning following overnight strength in soybeans. 
  • With only isolated showers expected though the weekend for much of the Corn Belt harvest progress should be able to push well beyond the 45% complete as estimated in Monday’s crop progress report.
  • Ethanol production set to be released today is expected to come in higher than last week at 1.024 million barrels per day according to estimates gathered by Bloomberg. 
  • Safras and Mercado estimate Brazil’s 1st crop corn is 59% planted, this is 6% ahead of last year’s pace and the five-year average. 1st crop corn in Brazil historically accounts for about 25% of their total corn production. 

  • Soybeans are trading higher again this morning as dryness concerns continue to build for major producing regions of Northern and Central Brazil. 
  • River levels along the Amazon River basin have fallen to their lowest levels in over 100-years due to drought conditions. Rains are expected to be minimal in West Central Brazil for at least the next 7 days, replanting is likely due to the dryness in some key producing regions. 
  • S&P Global forecasts US soybean acreage for 2024 will reach 86 million acres, up from 83.6 million in 2023. 
  • Basis bids for soybeans at both US river terminals and processors have been steady to firmer recently despite harvest progress.

  • Wheat is trading higher this morning following corn and soybean prices which are rallying mostly on Brazilian weather worries. 
  • S&P Global Commodity Insights projects 2024 US all wheat acreage at 48.7 million acres, if realized this would be 875,000 acres lower than the 2023 planted area. 
  • European Union soft wheat exports since July 1st have reached 8.81 million tons, down 22% from exports at this same time last year. 
  • According to Chinese Customs data September wheat imports were over 66% higher than September of 2022. Year to date Chinese wheat imports are up 53.6%. 

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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Opening Update: October 17, 2023

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’23 489.25 -0.75
MAR ’24 504.25 -0.75
DEC ’24 516.5 -1.25

Soybeans

NOV ’23 1290 3.75
JAN ’24 1309.25 3.5
NOV ’24 1253.5 -1.5

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’23 571.5 -5.75
MAR ’24 598.75 -5.75
JUL ’24 630.25 -4.5

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’23 666.5 -2.25
MAR ’24 676 -2
JUL ’24 684 -3.5

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’23 725 -3.75
MAR ’24 747.25 -4
SEP ’24 782 0.25

S&P 500

DEC ’23 4388 -13

Crude Oil

DEC ’23 85.57 0.31

Gold

DEC ’23 1936.7 2.4

  • Corn is trading slightly lower this morning on harvest pressure and a technical resistance level for December corn at the 5 dollar mark.
  • Yesterday’s crop progress report showed that 45% of the crop has been harvested compared to last week at 34% and the trade guess of 46%. 95% of the crop is mature.
  • Export inspections for corn yesterday were below expectations at 434k tons vs 804k tons the previous week, but yesterday a sale of 7.8 mb was reported to Mexico.
  • Chinese corn prices are slipping down near their two year lows on poor demand from the processing sector and low feed demand within the country.

  • Soybeans are trading higher again this morning despite harvest pressure as markets continue to see follow through from last week’s WASDE report which showed a carryout of just 220 mb.
  • Yesterday’s crop progress showed soybean harvest at 62% complete which was above the average trade guess of 57%, and 43% from a week ago. 97% of the bean crop is mature.
  • Export inspections were excellent for soybeans yesterday at 2.012 mmt, and inspections have now exceeded the seasonal pace needed to hit the USDA’s target by 28 mb. In addition, yesterday, a sale of 183,000 mt of soybean meal was reported to the Philippines for 23/24.
  • In more friendly news from yesterday, the NOPA crush report showed 165.456 mb of soybeans crushed in September, higher than expectations and a new record for the month.

  • Wheat is trading lower this morning with little fresh news to keep prices moving higher. The excitement from Chinese wheat purchases has died down with the lack of any new ones.
  • Export inspections for wheat were mild at 355k tons and within the average trade guess. Crop progress showed 68% of winter wheat planted vs 57% last week.
  • Ukraine has harvested about 65.2% of their 2023 winter grains which is around 3.3 million hectares, and 3.02 million hectares of that area was winter wheat. Exporting will likely continue to be a challenge.
  • Wheat harvest in Brazil is beginning, but rains in major wheat growing areas are concerning growers and could see output cut by 3.3% despite the total growing area being 12.1% larger than last year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.