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2-5 Opening Update: Grains Trading Slightly Lower to Start the Week

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’24 439.75 -3
JUL ’24 460.5 -2
DEC ’24 475.5 -1.25

Soybeans

MAR ’24 1185.75 -2.75
JUL ’24 1207.25 -1
NOV ’24 1171.25 0.25

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’24 592.25 -7.5
JUL ’24 606.25 -6.75
JUL ’25 650.25 0

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’24 616 -9
JUL ’24 608.5 -8
JUL ’25 648 -6.5

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’24 693.25 -6.5
JUL ’24 701.5 -5.25
SEP ’24 709.5 -5.25

S&P 500

MAR ’24 4974 -6.25

Crude Oil

APR ’24 71.9 -0.4

Gold

APR ’24 2041.2 -12.5

  • Corn is trading lower this morning due to the prospect of large South American production and the state of China’s economy worrying traders about demand.
  • March corn is now just three cents off of its contract low posted last week as non-commercials continue to add to their net short position.
  • The February WASDE report will be released this Thursday, and estimates for Argentinian corn are at 55.8 mmt while Brazil corn is estimated at 124.8 mmt. The Argentinian estimate is higher than the previous month while the Brazil estimate is lower.
  • Last Fridays’ CFTC report showed funds as sellers of 14,866 contracts of corn which leaves them with a very large net short position of 280,151 contracts.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning with pressure from the Brazilian harvest and overall poor export demand. Soybean meal is lower this morning while soybean oil is slightly higher.
  • The Brazilian harvest is now estimated at 16.22% complete for 23/24 which compares to 9.36% at this time last year. The weather in the northern region has turned more favorable for harvest.
  • Estimates for Thursday’s WASDE report have Argentinian soybeans at 50.8 mmt, up slightly from the last estimate, and Brazilian production at 153.7 mmt which is down from last month.
  • Friday’s CFTC report last week showed funds selling 16,405 contracts of soybeans which has increased their net short position to 108,247 contracts.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning but remain relatively rangebound with no change for March Chicago on the week last week.
  • China is reportedly looking to increase the minimum purchasing price of wheat in the country to encourage farmers to grow the grain and also boost yields. This comes as they strive for food independence. 
  • For this week’s USDA report, US ending stocks of wheat are expected to be virtually unchanged while exports may be increased slightly. World ending stocks of wheat are expected to rise very slightly.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials as sellers of 277 contracts of Chicago wheat increasing their net short position to 64,818 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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2-2 Opening Update: Grains Trading Higher Following Mixed Trade Yesterday

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’24 448 0.75
JUL ’24 466.5 0.5
DEC ’24 479 0

Soybeans

MAR ’24 1207.5 4.25
JUL ’24 1228 4.25
NOV ’24 1188.5 3

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’24 609.75 8.25
JUL ’24 621 7.25
JUL ’25 649.25 0

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’24 633.75 13
JUL ’24 624.25 10
JUL ’25 656.75 8

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’24 706 10
JUL ’24 717 9.5
SEP ’24 726 9.75

S&P 500

MAR ’24 4961.25 32.75

Crude Oil

APR ’24 73.89 0.1

Gold

APR ’24 2072.6 1.5

  • Corn is trading slightly higher this morning but was lower in the overnight trade. The nearby months are slightly higher while deferred contracts are lower.
  • Despite the bearish tone in the markets recently, March corn is on track for a slight gain on the week as long as it closes in the green today.
  • Yesterday’s export sales report was strong for corn and near the upper range of expectations which has been supportive this week.
  • The USDA’s Crushings and Co-Products report yesterday showed that 481.7 mb of corn was used for ethanol in December which was up 56 mb from a year ago.

  • Soybeans are trading higher to start the day but were slightly lower in overnight trade. Higher soybean meal is supportive while soybean oil is lower.
  • March soybeans are on track for a slight loss on the week while the November contract is on track for a small gain. Poor export sales this week pressured prices.
  • Yesterday’s Fats and Oils report from the USDA showed that total soybean crush for December was 204 mb, 17 mb above this time a year ago and a new monthly record.
  • Yesterday, non-commercials were estimated to have sold 8,000 contracts of soybeans which would have added to their net short position.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning and were mostly higher yesterday as well. Funds are likely short covering as prices more higher.
  • All three wheat classes are on track to post a higher close for the week. Although little fresh news has supported prices, it is nice to see them off their lows.
  • The forecast for world wheat stockpiles was increased slightly to 319.7 mmt from 319.3 mmt. Previously, there had been concerns of a shrinking wheat stockpile.
  • Russia’s grain exports rose by 23% between July 1 and January 31 which is 23% more grain exported than the previous year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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2-1 Opening Update: Grains Lower Overnight on Technical Selling

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’24 443.75 -4.5
JUL ’24 463 -3.5
DEC ’24 477 -3

Soybeans

MAR ’24 1211 -11.25
JUL ’24 1230.75 -11
NOV ’24 1189.75 -10

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’24 588 -7.25
JUL ’24 603 -7.25
JUL ’25 642 -8.5

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’24 615.75 -6.25
JUL ’24 607 -8.5
JUL ’25 650 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’24 690 -2.25
JUL ’24 702.25 -2.25
SEP ’24 711.75 -1.25

S&P 500

MAR ’24 4891.25 20.75

Crude Oil

APR ’24 76.19 0.48

Gold

APR ’24 2047.8 -19.6

  • Corn is trading lower this morning to begin the month despite higher trade on Tuesday and Wednesday. It is possible that the funds were profit taking at the end of January.
  • Yesterday, it was releveled that the US cattle herd has shrunken to the smallest numbers since 1951. This could have an impact on feed demand and pressure corn.
  • Today, the USDA will release its Fats and Oils report for December, and corn used for ethanol is expected to increase year over year by 11.4% to 474.4.
  • Estimates for today’s export sales report in corn is a wide range between 31 and 51 mb. There have been no flash sales reported recently and the number may be on the lower end.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning with pressure from both lower soybean meal and oil. Soybean meal previously had 3 higher closes which helped support soybeans over the past two days.
  • Estimates for December’s Fats and Oils report see the soybean crush at 206.5 mb which would be a 10.2% increase from the previous year and a record high for any month.
  • Brazilian soybean premiums are still relatively low, but did firm up on Wednesday due to a lack of farmer selling. Those low premiums caused buyers in the US to import soybeans from Brazil.
  • Shipments on the Parana River in South America are still halted due to a bulk carrier crashing against a bridge, and this is slowing grain shipments in the country.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning along with both corn and soybeans. Despite higher corn prices yesterday, wheat was not able to post a higher close.
  • Estimates for today’s export sales report are low for wheat and are in a range between 10 and 16 mb. Russia remains the dominant global exporter.  
  • Argentina has benefitted from largely friendly weather so far this season, but recently has had some dryness and heat that could effect their wheat crop.
  • India is also in jeopardy of warmer weather damaging its wheat crop with forecasts for the month of February warmer than normal while rains may be above normal.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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1-31 Opening Update: Grains Lower After Yesterday’s Reversal Higher

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’24 447 -0.75
JUL ’24 466 -1.25
DEC ’24 479.5 -0.75

Soybeans

MAR ’24 1211 -7.75
JUL ’24 1229.75 -6.5
NOV ’24 1191.5 -5.75

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’24 598.25 -7.25
JUL ’24 613 -7.25
JUL ’25 657.25 0

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’24 624.25 -6.5
JUL ’24 614.5 -9
JUL ’25 660 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’24 692.75 -7
JUL ’24 704 -7
SEP ’24 719.5 0

S&P 500

MAR ’24 4928.25 -22.75

Crude Oil

MAR ’24 77.04 -0.78

Gold

APR ’24 2056.5 5.6

  • Corn is back to trading lower after yesterday’s significantly higher prices that attracted sellers looking for rallies. Funds were likely taking part in short covering.
  • Non-commercials bought back roughly 5,500 contracts of corn yesterday, but the previous day they had sold 4,500 contracts. Their net short position is one of the largest held in history.
  • The EIA report will be released today and estimates for ethanol production are seen higher than the previous week at 964k b/d while the stockpile estimate is expected to be lower than a week ago.
  • South Africa is expected to increase corn plantings by 2% which could lead to an increase in production totaling around 15.3 mmt.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning and have given back about half of yesterday’s gains. Both soybean meal and oil are lower this morning with pressure from lower crude oil.
  • On Monday, markets reacted very negatively to the negative news regarding the Chinese economy, but it was likely an overreaction which caused prices to correct yesterday. Given the overall bearish fundamentals, traders were quick to sell the rally.
  • Estimates for Brazil’s 23/24 soybean crop have been lowered to 145.40 mmt compared to 150.7 mmt in the previous estimate according to Agresource, but South America is still set to produce more than the previous year.
  • The USDA December soybean crush is being estimated at 206.1 mb which would be another record for any month ever, and the third month in a row where crush exceeded 200 mb.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning along with corn and soybeans as traders come back in to sell yesterday’s rally.
  • Crop ratings for US winter wheat mostly improved as of January 28 with Kansas rated at 54% good to excellent compared to 43% the week before, but Oklahoma was lowered slightly at 63% vs 67% the previous week.
  • The USDA attaché in Ukraine has increased their export estimates for 23/24 with increased activity on the Black Sea and the Odesa port.
  • Wheat exports out of Brazil are expected to grow by 5.2% compared to the previous year which would mark to highest monthly volume in over a year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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1-30 Opening Update: Grains Lower on Continued Non-Commercial Selling

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’24 437 -3.25
JUL ’24 457.25 -2
DEC ’24 472.75 -1.75

Soybeans

MAR ’24 1193.75 -0.5
JUL ’24 1213.25 -2
NOV ’24 1179.75 -0.5

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’24 584.75 -8.75
JUL ’24 601.25 -8.25
JUL ’25 648.75 0

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’24 612.25 -6
JUL ’24 608 -7.5
JUL ’25 649.25 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’24 690.25 -3
JUL ’24 702 -2.75
SEP ’24 713.5 0

S&P 500

MAR ’24 4949.75 -4.75

Crude Oil

MAR ’24 76.6 -0.18

Gold

APR ’24 2053.6 9

  • Corn is trading lower this morning after yesterday’s selloff, and the March contract took out the low from the 18th making a new contract low. 
  • Funds were estimated to sell about 4,500 contracts of corn yesterday as bearish sentiment continues, and they are nearing a record large short position.
  • The world’s largest corn ethanol producer, Poet, is working with another company that is proposing a large carbon capture and storage project with the goal of cutting biofuel emissions and to capture demand for sustainable aviation fuel.
  • There has been some friendly news for corn with higher crude oil prices supportive to ethanol and larger hog production supportive of feed demand, but funds continue to sell.

  • Soybeans are trading only slightly lower this morning after a large selloff yesterday. Soybean meal is slightly higher again today while soybean oil is lower.
  • As of January 25, Brazil is reportedly 11% complete with harvest which compares to 6% the previous week and 5% the year prior. Corn planting is beginning along with harvest.
  • Shipping has temporarily halted on the Parana River in Brazil after a carrier crashed into a bridge, and this could impact the movement of soybeans as harvest is underway.
  • It has been reported on social media that Brazilian soybeans are being imported into the US as they now have cheaper offers as harvest continues.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning as low export demand continues to weigh on prices. Concerns about the Chinese economy and its demand have not helped wheat.
  • Latvia’s government is looking to ban imports of grain from Russia and Belarus in an attempt to stabilize domestic prices. A previous attempt to do this was unsuccessful.
  • In Argentina, the wheat harvest is reportedly finished with total production estimated at 15.1 mmt. Last season, production was pegged at 12.2 mmt.
  • Russian wheat prices have fallen again due to an increase in supply in the Black Sea region, but exports have risen. The price of 12.5% protein Russian wheat was down $3 per metric ton from the previous week.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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1-29 Opening Update: Grain Complex Lower Following Hit to Chinese Economy

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’24 442.25 -4
JUL ’24 459.5 -4
DEC ’24 473.25 -3

Soybeans

MAR ’24 1200.5 -8.75
JUL ’24 1216.75 -7.25
NOV ’24 1177 -8

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’24 590.25 -10
JUL ’24 605.5 -10.75
JUL ’25 642.5 -12.5

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’24 612.5 -12.25
JUL ’24 610.5 -12.75
JUL ’25 656.5 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’24 694.5 -9
JUL ’24 705.25 -7.75
SEP ’24 715 -6

S&P 500

MAR ’24 4920.5 4.25

Crude Oil

MAR ’24 78.13 0.12

Gold

APR ’24 2047.9 11.8

  • Corn was trading in a relatively steady range earlier last night but began selling off around 3am. Economic issues in China were the biggest bearish factor.
  • Overnight, a Hong Kong court ordered the real estate property giant, China Evergrande, to liquidate. The company now owes 300 billion. This news adds fresh concerns about the Chinese economy and their demand.
  • International corn prices have risen recently, but in Brazil they have fallen as a result of anticipation of a large Brazilian and US crop.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds adding to their short position by 4,743 contracts, increasing it to 265,285 contracts. That is the second largest short position in history.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning with pressure from the news out of China along with lower prices in both soybean meal and oil.
  • Overnight, March soybeans reached its lowest price since June of 2023. There is some technical support around $11.85, but after that, the contract low is down at $11.45.
  • In Brazil, 9% of the soybean harvest is reportedly complete which compares to 4.4% at this time last year. Northern Brazil is getting a bit too much rain while Argentina is dry in the short term forecast.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of 15,045 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 91,842 contracts last week.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with KC wheat leading the way lower. Wheat is down with the rest of the grains due to bearish global news.
  • Fighting in the Middle East is escalating after the US said that Iranian backed militants killed three US service members. Retaliation is expected, and shipping companies are expected to stay out of the Red Sea.
  • Argentina has said that China is now open to importing Argentinian wheat for the first time. This comes after Argentina wrapped up harvest with production better than expected at 15.1 mmt.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of 4,034 contracts which reduced their net short position to 64,541 contracts as of last week.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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1-26 Opening Update: Grains Trading Lower on Improved Argentina Forecast

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’24 448.5 -3.25
JUL ’24 466 -3.25
DEC ’24 478 -2.75

Soybeans

MAR ’24 1219.25 -3.75
JUL ’24 1233 -4.5
NOV ’24 1193 -3.25

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’24 606 -6.25
JUL ’24 621.25 -6.25
JUL ’25 654.5 -7

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’24 633.75 -3.25
JUL ’24 623.75 -9.25
JUL ’25 664.25 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’24 704.25 -4.75
JUL ’24 714 -5
SEP ’24 727 0.75

S&P 500

MAR ’24 4920 -3.25

Crude Oil

MAR ’24 76.62 -0.74

Gold

APR ’24 2042.2 5.4

  • Corn is trading lower this morning after breaking its five-day streak of consecutive gains yesterday with a slightly lower close. 
  • Yesterday’s export sales were within expectations but were slightly disappointing given how competitive the US is globally right now, but commitments are still running above pace.
  • Argentina had around a week’s worth of drier weather recently, but overall the growing season has been very favorable, and now the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has revised its production higher to 56.5 mmt from 55 mmt.
  • Sales of ethanol within Brazil have risen significantly this month as they are reportedly running out of storage due to a bumper crop. Total ethanol sales have risen by 44% year over year.

  • Soybeans are trading lower again this morning following yesterday’s poor close with both soybean meal and oil lower as the outlook for Argentina improves.
  • The 8 to 10-day forecast in Argentina is now projecting more rain, and improvements in Argentine weather are typically bearish for US soybean meal prices as the country is the top exporter of meal.
  • The value of soybean meal and oil have fallen at a slightly more rapid pace than soybeans recently causing crush margins to narrow. This may cause processors to crush fewer bushels.
  • Shipments down the Mississippi River have fallen significantly during the week ending Jan 20 which has caused rates to decline. Soybean shipments were down 52% week over week.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning, but March Chicago wheat is still above its 100-day moving average and is significantly off its contract lows.
  • Yesterday’s export sales were nothing to get excited about, but 3 mb of wheat were shipped to China, and 28 mb of wheat have been shipped so far with 60 mb more to go.
  • While Australia has received beneficial rains that have saved a portion of their crop, the weather pattern there has turned stormy with a tropical cyclone damaging the Queensland area.
  • Cheap Russian wheat prices remain the largest force of downward pressure for global wheat prices. Their crop has appeared to grow each year and they essentially set the price for the rest of the world.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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1-25 Opening Update: Grains Trading Quietly on Little Fresh News

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’24 452.25 0
JUL ’24 470.5 -0.25
DEC ’24 482 -0.25

Soybeans

MAR ’24 1241.25 1
JUL ’24 1253.75 1
NOV ’24 1207.25 -0.75

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’24 612 1.25
JUL ’24 627 0.75
JUL ’25 661.5 0

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’24 631 5.25
JUL ’24 629.5 0.25
JUL ’25 669.5 2.75

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’24 710.25 5.75
JUL ’24 720.5 5.25
SEP ’24 729 6

S&P 500

MAR ’24 4900.25 2.25

Crude Oil

MAR ’24 75.92 0.83

Gold

APR ’24 2035.2 0

  • Corn is unchanged to slightly lower this morning in quiet trade, but has been trending higher since last Thursday and is 15 cents off that low in the March contract.
  • On February 15, the USDA will hold its Ag Outlook meeting where planted corn acres will be estimated, and may analysts are lookin for a decline of as much as 1.6 million acres.
  • Funds were estimated to have bought back 2,000 contracts of corn yesterday and appear to be slowly unraveling their very large net short position.
  • The world’s first plant which uses ethanol to produce jet fuel is set to open in the US and will use a combination of US corn and other raw materials.

  • Soybeans are slightly higher this morning but have been bouncing around on either side of unchanged which was similar to yesterday’s trade which ended with a small gain.
  • Soybean meal is higher again for the third consecutive day as it rebounds from oversold conditions. Soybean oil is slightly lower despite higher crude oil and a higher trend in palm oil.
  • Russia is set to export a significantly larger amount of vegetable oil this year at 6.5 million tonnes which is a third more than the previous year. This is a result of record seed crop harvests.
  • Due to falling vegetation density levels in Mato Grosso and Parana, major soybean growing areas in Brazil, total Brazilian production is now expected to shrink by 2% to an average guess of 149 mmt.

  • All three wheat classes are trading slightly higher this morning and have continued their trend up recently despite little bullish news. This action indicates that the funds may be buying back some of their net short position.
  • SovEcon has raised their estimate for Russian wheat production by 0.9 mmt to 92.2 mmt citing good conditions with an abundant snow cover on the winter crops.
  • Ukraine has taken back control of the Black Sea shipping route for the most part and is now shipping millions of tons of food. The problems in the Red Sea however could threaten trade with Asia.
  • Estimates for today’s export sales report have wheat between 200k and 800k tons for an average of 518k tons. Last week’s exports were better than expected.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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1-24 Opening Update: Grain Complex Higher, Wheat Leads Gains

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’24 448.25 1.75
JUL ’24 467 1
DEC ’24 478 0.5

Soybeans

MAR ’24 1240.5 1
JUL ’24 1254.5 0.25
NOV ’24 1207 0

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’24 602.5 6
JUL ’24 619 6.25
JUL ’25 653.75 0

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’24 622.5 5
JUL ’24 624.5 4.5
JUL ’25 658 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’24 700.75 1.75
JUL ’24 713.5 3.5
SEP ’24 721.5 3.5

S&P 500

MAR ’24 4916 21

Crude Oil

MAR ’24 74.15 -0.22

Gold

APR ’24 2053.5 8.3

  • Corn is trading higher this morning and would be on track for its fifth consecutively higher close, something corn has not been able to do since May of 2023.
  • Heavy rains are expected this week along the US Gulf coast and Delta regions, this should help cut into drought conditions and raise unusually low Mississippi river levels. 
  • Showers in northern and central Brazil over the next ten days could be a setback to early planted soybean harvest but the rains will benefit soil moisture for safrinha corn planting which has just started. 
  • European Union corn imports through January 19th totaled 9.86 mmt, down 42% from a year ago. 

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning after yet another strong close yesterday. Soybean meal is up this morning, while soybean oil is slightly lower along with crude oil.
  • Most areas of Argentina and southern Brazil were drier last week and will not see much relief in the next ten days. After a near perfect start to the growing season, falling crop conditions are expected in Argentina as the calendar flips to February. 
  • China’s soybean production reached a record 20.8 mmt in 2023 according to a report by Sinhua News Agency this week citing data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. 
  • Phillips 66 will soon be able to operate it’s 50,000 barrel per day renewable diesel plant in Rodeo, California after clearing a court-ordered review of environmental impacts tied to the project last week.   

  • All three wheat classes are trading slightly higher this morning with the winter wheat’s leading the gains. 
  • European Union soft-wheat exports in the marketing year beginning July 1 were 17.4 mmt vs 18.8 mmt last year. 
  • Stocks of hard red spring wheat stored in Minnesota and Wisconsin export warehouses are down about 900,000 bushels year over year to come in at 15.473 million bushels in the week ending January 21. 
  • After freezing rain in some areas earlier this week, warmer air and periods of rain showers are expected through much of the plains this week which should be favorable for increasing soil moisture levels for dormant wheat. 

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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1-23 Opening Update: Grain Complex Higher to Start Despite Fresh News

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’24 447.5 1.75
JUL ’24 466 1.25
DEC ’24 477.25 1

Soybeans

MAR ’24 1228.5 4.25
JUL ’24 1244.5 3.25
NOV ’24 1198.5 1

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’24 598.75 2.25
JUL ’24 614 2
JUL ’25 654.25 0

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’24 609 2
JUL ’24 615.75 1.25
JUL ’25 652.75 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’24 701.5 1
JUL ’24 710.75 1
SEP ’24 718 0.5

S&P 500

MAR ’24 4883.75 2.75

Crude Oil

MAR ’24 74.11 -0.65

Gold

APR ’24 2044.9 3.3

  • Corn is trading higher this morning and would be on track for a fourth consecutively higher close as prices rebound from oversold conditions.
  • Yesterday’s export inspections report was within trade expectations at 713k tons, but that was below last week’s 946k tons and also lower than the previous year at this time.
  • Brazil’s first crop corn harvest is now 8.4% complete as of January 19 which compares to 1.5% a year ago and the 5-year average of 5.8%. 
  • Yesterday, the funds were estimated to have bought back 500 contracts of corn, but still hold a very large net short position, and open interest has risen significantly.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning after a strong close yesterday. Soybean meal has been trending lower but is up today, while soybean oil is slightly lower along with crude oil.
  • Brazil’s soy harvest for 23/24 is 6% complete which compares to 2.3% last week and 1.8% a year ago. The areas that suffered from drought have been getting harvested first.
  • China is continuing its plans to expand oilseed production in the country by planting GMO soybeans and corn in an effort to reduce reliance on other countries for imports.
  • Yesterday’s export inspections were a little soft at 1,161k tons which was down 9.2% from the previous week and down 36.9% from a year ago.

  • All three wheat classes are trading slightly higher this morning, and March Chicago wheat would be on track for a fifth consecutive higher close despite slow export sales.
  • Australia’s weather has improved lately, and its wheat crop is now estimated as much as 5 mmt higher than previous estimates.
  • Yesterday’s export sales were soft again at 314k tons but were slightly higher than last week. A good portion of that wheat is bound for China which is encouraging.
  • Yesterday, funds were estimated to have bought back 2,000 contracts of wheat which would have reduced their net short position slightly. Funds have been slowly unraveling their short position over the past few weeks.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.