Corn is currently trading slightly lower in a tight 1 3/4 cent range after Tuesday’s solid reopen to the shortened holiday week.
Yesterday’s weekly export inspections report showed 1.082 mmt (42.6 mb) of corn inspected for export. Currently, total inspections are 26% ahead of last year at this time and on track to hit the USDA’s forecast.
South American weather continues to show improvement. Much needed rain is expected to favor the parched areas of northeastern Brazil. Argentina continues to see favorable weather, with current expectations for their corn crop weighing on US prices.
Managed funds were active buyers in yesterday’s trade, buying an estimated 4,000 contracts of corn. They are currently estimated to hold a short position totaling 156,000 contracts.
The soybean complex is trading lower this morning in a quiet 7-cent range. Both soybean meal and oil are also trading lower this morning.
Forecasts continue to show rain for the dry areas of Brazil which should help to stabilize crop conditions. The much-improved conditions in Argentina from last year continues to weigh on soybean meal, which has steadily come off its high from mid-November.
With the last large soybean sale to China reported on December 19, concerns are growing that they may have filled their needs for now and be done buying US beans.
Managed funds were active buyers in the soybean market yesterday, buying an estimated 6,000 contracts. This would bring their current long position to an estimated 29,000 contracts.
All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning in quiet trade. While most of Chicago and KC contracts have seen activity, only March and May Minneapolis have traded this morning.
Yesterday, the wheat complex posted strong gains as tensions in the Black Sea region escalated once again with an attack by Ukraine on a Russian warship in a Crimean port. Lately, Ukraine war news has been mostly brushed off by the markets in general, but with the end of the year approaching, this event likely triggered short covering.
In general, world wheat demand has been increasing lately, but since Russia continues to be the cheapest origin, they have been the dominant source.
Yesterday, managed funds were active buyers of Chicago wheat, buying an estimated 10,000 contracts. They currently hold an estimated short position totaling 58,000 contracts.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Early calls for corn futures look to open slightly lower this morning following a 10-cent loss in the March contract last week.
On Friday, US Customs re-opened both of the rail lines that had been closed down at El Paso and Eagle Pass, but that had little bullish effect on corn which only closed higher by half a cent.
Argentina is gearing up for a solid corn crop with excellent conditions early in the season. 59% of the crop is planted and all of it is rated good or better.
Friday’s CFTC data showed non-commercials increasing their net short position by 26,355 contracts leaving them net short 127,570 contracts.
Soybeans are called to open slightly higher at this point this morning but were dealt a loss of 16 cents last week in the January contract.
Scattered showers are falling in central Brazil this morning while good rains fell last week and the extended forecast is wetter as well.
Ag Rural has reported that 94% of the Brazilian soy crop has been planted, and the beans that are in pod fill will benefit from the current rainy forecast.
Friday’s CFTC data showed non-commercials as sellers, reducing their net long position to just 1,998 contracts.
Calls for the wheat open are unchanged to slightly lower following a loss of 13 cents last week for March Chicago wheat. Futures remain at the 100-day moving average and are in a bull pennant formation.
It has been three weeks since a flash sale was reported to China, and while traders remain hopeful, Russia continues to dominate global exports.
The re-opening of the two railways into Mexico should be friendly for wheat as well as corn as Mexico has been a steady buyer of all three classes of US wheat.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn futures are mixed this morning with slight gains in the front month and small losses in the deferred months. Yesterday’s export sales were supportive.
Yesterday’s export sales report saw corn sales falling slightly from the previous week to 1,014k tons from 1,419k tons, but still a strong number. Shipments were 40 mb which was higher than a week ago.
The railroad closures on the southern border remain a big issue as Mexico has been the primary buyer for US corn, and it has become increasingly difficult to export.
Argentina is now 69% complete with their soybean planting for 23/24 from 60% last week and continue to plant in favorable conditions with good soil moisture.
Soybeans are trading slightly higher this morning but have posted losses for the last 3 consecutive days with nearly 38 cents lost in that time frame.
Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher this morning as well with help from higher palm and crude oil, but crush margins have tightened lately.
Scattered showers are falling over central Brazil this morning, and the forecast into January still looks favorable for their soy crop. Production losses are still likely due to the early heat and drought.
New projections from Rabobank concerning the Brazilian soybean crop now see 23/24 production at 158 mmt compared to the initial forecast of 163 mmt.
All three wheat classes are trading slightly higher this morning, and wheat has held strong at the 100-day moving average in general. Positive news could cause a breakout to the upside.
Yesterday’s export sales report showed very small amounts of wheat sold, especially compared to when China was making US purchases.
Argentina dealt with a storm last week that targeted main growing areas, but the wheat crop has reportedly not been damaged and production of 14.7 mmt is expected.
Wheat production in western Australia is expected to be cut by 40% compared to production the previous year. Unexpected frosts damaged the crop.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly higher this morning after making new contract lows yesterday and posting the lowest close of the year.
Shipping issues globally have put pressure on futures with many routes in the Red Sea closed off due to attacks and shipping in the Panama Canal limited due to low water levels.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn between 800k and 1,500k tons with an average trade guess of 1,019k tons.
On Monday’s inspections report, out of the 35.5 mb of corn that was inspected, only 5.5 mb were inspected at the Gulf and 10 mb were out of the PNW showing the disruptive shipping issues.
Soybeans are trading slightly lower again this morning as rains fall in Brazil and the forecast remains friendly there. Soybean meal is unchanged to slightly higher while soybean oil is lower.
Brazil’s soybean output for 23/24 is now being called lower than last year’s at 156.5 mmt due to a 20% expected drop in production from the main growing state of Mato Grosso.
To offset some of Brazil’s losses, Argentinian soybean production is now called higher at 47.9 mmt due to improved soil moisture levels in key areas.
Expectations for today’s export sales report see soybean sales between 1,300 and 2,500k tons with an average guess of 1,984k. Considering that there was a flash sale every day last week, export numbers should be strong.
All three wheat classes are trading slightly higher this morning as March Chicago wheat hugs the 100-day moving average and remains in a bull pennant formation which looks like may break higher technically.
There have not been any reported flash sales by China since two weeks ago, but the fact that wheat has remained off its lows despite the lack of sales has been encouraging.
Estimates for today’s export sales report are low with a lack of flash sales and are between 300k and 600k tons with an average guess of 425k tons.
SovEcon has raised its estimate for the Russian 2024 wheat harvest by 1.5 mmt to 91.3 mmt as a result of good weather conditions.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly higher this morning as markets attempt to shake off some of yesterday’s losses. So far, prices are still rangebound, but March corn did have its lowest close of the year yesterday.
Projections for the weekly ethanol output and stockpile report see production lower than last week at 1.067m b/d with stockpiles estimated at 22.098 m bbl, slightly lower than last week.
Brazil has overtaken the US as China’s primary corn supplier and has maintained the top spot for soybeans. Out of the 22.18 mmt of corn imported by China, 40% was shipped from Brazil and 29% was from the US.
Ever in an effort to diversify their imports, China has given Russia the right to supply corn from all of its regions. The US still has the competitive advantage globally.
Soybeans are trading higher this morning with the majority of gains in the two front months while deferred contracts are only slightly higher.
Both soybean meal and oil are slightly higher as well, but the overall trend has been lower as trade prepares for the Argentinian soy harvest and the large number of soy products that will be exported from the country.
Scattered showers continue to fall in central and northern Brazil this morning and the overall forecast looks much better for January.
Due to the heat and drought early in the season, Brazil’s largest soybean growing state, Mato Grosso, is expected to produce 20% fewer soybeans in 2024 with estimates at 36.15 mmt.
All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning, but held their own yesterday while corn and soybeans were down significantly.
March soybeans have been consolidating at the 100-day moving average and have also formed a bull pennant. Friendly news like a new Chinese sale could cause wheat to break out higher.
The European Union’s soft wheat exports have dropped by 16% year over year in the season through December 17 as the world continues to look to Russia for their needs.
Private analyst APK-Inform has increased their estimates for the 23/24 Ukrainian grain harvest to 56.3 mmt from previous estimates of 54.7 mmt. Wheat production is called at 21.5 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly lower this morning and is near the bottom of its trading range as forecasts for the driest parts of central and northern Brazil begin to show improved rain chances through the end of the month.
Yesterday, open interest in corn rose by nearly 50,000 contracts which suggests that funds are adding onto their short position in response to rising shipping costs.
With rebels attacking in the Red Sea region and low water levels in the Panama Canal, shipping costs globally are rising, and this will likely effect costs in the US.
Brazilian first crop corn planting is now reportedly 96.8% complete as of December 15 which compares with 94.4% last year.
Soybean futures are lower this morning and have given back all of yesterday’s gains as scattered showers fall in Brazil with a friendlier long-term forecast.
Yesterday’s rally can be attributed to Argentina’s proposal to increase export taxes on soybean meal and oil to 33% from 31%. Trade had initially expected the Argentine government to enact policy that was more friendly to producers.
Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower this morning, and the recent selloff in both has caused crush margins to slip slightly.
Brazilian soybean planting is now reported at 94% as of December 14 which compares with 91% the previous year, but some has had to be replanted or was planted in extremely hot and dry conditions.
All three wheat classes are trading slightly lower this morning but were higher overnight as rumors circulate that China may be looking to buy more US wheat.
There was a tender overnight issued by Egypt to buy wheat from Russia which comes after it purchased a large volume yesterday. The theme of the world relying on Russia for cheap wheat has been a constant bearish factor.
In northern France, some sowings are looking unlikely to be completed due to overly wet conditions. Nearly 10% of planned soft wheat areas are unsown in France.
Ukraine’s demand for wheat and other grains out of the Danube River has begun to slip as shipping costs rise and more wheat leaves via the Black Sea corridor.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly lower this morning with prices in a consolidating pattern as rainfall over the weekend in Brazil adds pressure.
A new estimate from Safras & Mercado shows Brazilian corn production cut to 129.2 mmt which compares to 135.7 mmt in September and 140.9 mmt the previous year due to a 5.4% decline in planted acres.
The Biden Administration has revealed their plan for sustainable aviation using corn ethanol in jet fuel in a long awaited plan that should boost demand.
Friday’s CFTC data showed funds as buyers of corn last week by 8,963 contracts which reduced their large net short position to 151,570 contracts.
Soybeans are trading lower along with the rest of the grain complex to start the week due to weekend rainfalls in Brazil, but products are steadier with meal essentially unchanged and soybean oil slightly higher.
Last week, Brazil dealt with 7-days of heat and dryness, but the the pattern has changed to show more moisture and is expected to continue through January which could add more pressure to prices.
The USDA’s last estimate for Brazilian production was 161 mmt, but some private analysts expect a slightly lower number near 157 mmt.
Friday’s CFTC data showed funds as net sellers of soybeans by 5,784 contracts bringing their net long position down to 30,849 contracts. They also sold 25,462 contracts of meal reducing that net long position to 92,720 contracts.
All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning. The Chinese sales two weeks ago gave traders some encouragement, but there has been a lack of business done since then.
India had previously floated the idea of importing wheat from Russia as poor weather had damaged their own crop, but this idea has now been abandoned.
Unsurprisingly, Russia has said that it had no interest in restarting the Black Sea grain deal stating that it was a political decision but also that Russia had plenty of buyers for its grain.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back a large chunk of their net short position by 26,693 contracts which reduced their net short position to 69,529 contracts.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading unchanged to slightly higher this morning in quiet trade that remains rangebound. The March contract is on track for a weekly loss of around 5 cents.
CONAB in Brazil has estimated their corn crop lower at 118.5 mmt from 137 mmt last year due to fewer acres with many of them damaged by the flooding in southern Brazil.
With reduced production of Brazil’s first crop corn, the second crop that will be planted over the next few months is more important, but will likely be delayed as a result of harvesting delays in soybeans.
Yesterday’s export sales report was strong again, and total shipments this year are up 32% from the previous year. Mexico has been responsible for nearly half of the corn purchases.
Soybeans are trading slightly higher this morning and are on track for a small weekly gain as prices consolidate above the 200-day moving average.
Soybean meal is trading higher this morning and is nearly unchanged on the week while soybean oil is bear spread and on track for a small weekly loss.
Argentina had shut down its office for export licenses on Monday but it has reopened today, and so far its new policy changes have caused a 54% reduction in the value of the Argentinian peso.
While the soy crop in Brazil is dealing with hot and dry conditions for another few days, Argentina has fared much better, and 60% of their bean crop is planted with only 4% in poor condition.
Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago and KC slightly lower but Minneapolis maintaining higher prices. The March Chicago contract is on track to be unchanged for the week.
Yesterday’s export sales report which saw 54.8 mb of wheat sold the previous week was very impressive and the largest one-week sale since 2020 with China as the primary buyer.
In the US, rains are expected to fall between Nebraska and central Texas today which should benefit the winter wheat crop, but better chances in the southern Plains will come towards the end of the year.
Russia’s cheap wheat offers continue to keep global prices down, but the US has gotten cheap enough in the past few weeks to pick up some of that export business.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher this morning along with the rest of the grain complex following yesterday’s Fed announcement that rates would remain unchanged. This caused the dollar to move lower.
While US corn is near the low end of trade, Brazilian corn futures are trading at the equivalent of $6.31 a bushel making US corn much more competitive.
Yesterday’s report from the Energy Department showed last week’s ethanol production at 1.074 million bpd, a strong pace that shows good demand.
Estimates for today’s export sales report are calling for corn sales between 800k and 1,600k tons with an average of 1,245k tons. Sales are expected to be good but likely lower than last week’s.
Soybeans are trading higher along with both soybean meal and oil with help from the decline in the US Dollar which makes US soy products more competitive.
Yesterday’s selloff was due to Argentina’s suspension of their export licenses and likely their selling of what soybean meal producers had left.
Soybean meal prices in the US have sold off sharply now that trade is expecting Argentina to produce a normal soy crop and fulfill their typical crushing capacity which will give them the ability to export large amounts of meal.
With the prices of both soybean meal and oil falling this week, US crush margins have fallen, but this may be temporary as cash meal in Illinois closed $36 above the January futures.
All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with the March Chicago contract in a bull flag formation that is hugging the 100-day moving average. A strong close above that average could trigger more short covering.
Estimates for today’s export sales in wheat are expected to be strong thanks to all the Chinese purchases and the trade range is between 1,260k and 2,000k tons, far above last week’s 347k.
Most winter wheat crops are looking good for the most part expect for in Europe where too much rain has kept the entire crop from getting planted. In the US, the crop could use more moisture.
The Argentinian wheat crop is now expected to increase by 7.4% to 14.5 mmt after recent beneficial rains. This is up from the last guess at 13.5 mmt, and harvest is 57% complete.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower this morning giving back most of the gains posted yesterday.
Today’s EIA ethanol report is expected to show ethanol production backing off from last week’s 5 month high, with ethanol stocks growing slightly week over week.
The Biden Administration is expected to announce this week guidance on whether corn-based sustainable aviation fuel will qualify for government subsidies.
Brazil’s Agrivest says purchases of fertilizer and corn seed are down 18-20% compared to a year ago as farmers eye second crop corn planting in early 2024.
Soybeans are trading lower this morning as heavier rain totals are forecast in the driest regions of Brazil starting late next week through January.
Weather conditions look to remain mostly favorable for Argentina over the next two weeks continuing to support early crop development.
Newly elect Argentine President Milei is expected to announce this week many of his reforms which could have an impact on global soybean meal trade given Argentina’s large impact in that market.
Brazil’s ABIOVE lowered their Brazilian soybean production forecast to 161.9 million tons this week, down 2.8 million tons from their previous estimate, but above the USDA’s December estimate of 161 million tons.
All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning after yesterday’s rally.
Argus said this week that Ukraine’s wheat production could be a 12-year low in 2024 due to lower planted area.
EU soft red wheat exports through December 10 were estimated at 13.61 million tons compared to 15.85 million a year ago.
A low pressure system is expected to move slowly across much of the US central plains this week bringing welcome moisture.
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