Corn is trading higher this morning after a loss of 12-1/2 cents in the March contract last week and its lowest close in the life of the contract on Friday.
Non-commercials are near their record short position in corn and may have even broken that record as of last week. Traders will expect a bottom in corn once the funds begin unrolling that large short position.
Brazil’s estimated corn production for 23/24 has been reduced to 125.9 mmt by Safras & Mercado which compares to their estimate of 140.1 mmt in December.
Friday’s CFTC report showed that as of Tuesday 13th, funds sold an additional 16,597 contracts of corn increasing their net short position to a near record 314,341 contracts.
Soybeans gapped higher this morning after last week’s lower prices. China is back from its holiday today and is expected to begin buying soybeans again, but most of the business will likely go to South America.
In Brazil, soybean premiums improved last week despite the ongoing harvest. Farmers were unwilling to sell at the low prices causing premiums to improve.
The Brazilian harvest is now 31.10% complete which compares to 24.78% at this time last year. South American weather remains favorable.
Last week’s CFTC report showed non-commercials as sellers of 4,200 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 134,500 contracts and nearing their record short position.
All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning after making and recovering from a double bottom at $5.56-1/4 in March Chicago wheat.
Russian wheat exports are currently on track to total 52.9 mmt in 23/24, but that number could drop to 48.1 mmt in the following marketing year according to the consensus forecast.
Australia is currently forecast to be hit by a third tropical cyclone within two months with a system forming off the northern coast and could make landfall near Queensland. This could be detrimental to the wheat crop there.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of 11,066 contracts of wheat which reduced their net short position to 55,672 contracts.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly higher this morning following two consecutively poor closes this week as funds likely engage in some profit taking ahead of the long weekend.
Yesterday’s export sales report was within expectations and maintains this year’s exports well above last year at this time, but most of the business has gone to Mexico with the country as the top buyer with 421k tons last week.
The estimate for global corn production in the 23/24 season was increased by 4 mmt to 1.23 billion tons. For 24/25, corn planted acreage is expected to increase.
Soybeans are trading higher as well this morning following the past two days where 24 cents were lost in the March contract between Wednesday and Thursday. Soybean meal is higher this morning while soybean oil is lower along with lower crude.
Yesterday’s NOPA crush report showed crush numbers falling slightly from the previous month with narrowing crush margins. January crush came in at 185.78 million bushels which was below last month but still a record high for January.
Argentina began receiving rains at the beginning of this week and there has already been a large improvement in the quality of the soy crop there following the hot and dry spell. The soy crop is 100% planted at this point.
All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning as they refuse to follow the trend in corn and soybeans. March Chicago wheat had been in a tight trading range but has broken out to the downside over the past three trading sessions.
The soft wheat crop in France is now in worse condition than the 2023 crop with just 68% rated good to excellent as of February 12. At this time last year, the crop was rated at 93% good to excellent.
Australia is currently forecast to be hit by a third tropical cyclone within two months with a system forming off the northern coast and could make landfall near Queensland. This could be detrimental to the wheat crop there.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower this morning following yesterday’s lower close that set a new contract low for March corn. December is at its lowest levels since October 2021.
This morning, the USDA released it’s outlook forum numbers which were within expectations. Expected planted corn acres were reduced by 3 million acres to 91.0 ma. This is down from last year’s 94.6 ma.
According to the outlook forum, with the decrease in planted acres but an increase in expected trendline yield to 181.0 bpa, ending stocks for 24/25 are forecast to increase to 2,532 mb.
US ethanol stocks rose by 4.2% to 25.81m bbl according to the US Department of Energy’s weekly report. Plant production was above the average estimates at 1.083m b/d.
Soybeans are trading lower this morning as well after a poor close yesterday as funds continued to add to their short position selling an estimated 6,500 contracts. Both soybean meal and oil are lower as well.
This morning’s outlook forum numbers showed expected planted soybean acres for 24/25 increased from 83.6 ma to 87.5 ma. This was within trade expectations.
With this increase in expected planted acres and using the higher trendline yield of 52.0 bpa, ending soybean stocks are estimated higher at 435 mb.
US January soybean crush is expected at 189.7 mb which would be 6% higher than January of last year but 2.9% lower than last months record number.
All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning after sharp losses yesterday which saw KC wheat hit new contract lows.
This morning’s outlook forum numbers from the USDA showed estimates of planted wheat acres falling to 47.0 million acres in 24/25 from 49.6 ma the previous year.
In France, soft wheat stocks were seen 37% higher than the previous year at 3.5m tons which was up from a previous estimate of 3.44.
Russia is currently harvesting a huge wheat crop and is running into shipping issues with limited capacity in its grain elevators as they need to store over 166 million tonnes of grain.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower this morning after posting small gains both Monday and Tuesday.
Ukraine reportedly sunk a Russian military vessel near Crimea Wednesday morning. The market has appeared to pay little attention in the past months to the Russian/Ukraine conflict.
Showers are expected to be widespread and heavy for much of Brazil by this weekend. Southern Brazil, which is in need of rain the most, will turn back to a drier pattern next week.
The US had 1.9 million farms in 2022, a 6.9% drop from five years ago and the lowest since 1992, according to data from the USDA’s Census of Agriculture. The total acreage used in farms dropped about 2.2% from five years ago as well. The average age of producers continued to climb, reaching 58.1 years in 2022.
Soybeans are trading lower this morning down to new lows for its recent move lower.Â
Heavy rain returned to Argentina’s crop producing regions this week easing the hot and dry conditions that plagued many areas for about the last month. Another round of storms are expected to move in this weekend. Â
US soybean crush is forecast to slow in January (from the record months of November and December) as a mid month record cold snap disrupted operations at several processing plants. The NOPA report is scheduled for release at 11 am CST on Thursday.Â
Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his Brazilian soybean production forecast this week to 147 mmt. Many estimates out of South America continue to peg the Brazilian crop near or below the 150 mmt level versus the USDA’s February estimate at 156 mmt.
All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning as prices remain rangebound. Lower prices in corn and soybeans are adding pressure as well this morning.
Nearby spreads in all three wheat contracts are at very small carries or inverted. This along with stronger trending basis levels is generally an attempt by the market to encourage selling and discourage storage.
Ukrainian grain producers are expected to plant 2% more wheat and 7% more barley acres than last year according to a Ukraine Agriculture Ministry survey recently conducted.
Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries is looking to buy a total of 115,035 metric tons of food-quality wheat from the US, Canada and Australia in a regular tender that will close on February 15th.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly higher this morning after posting a small gain yesterday, but prices remain near contract lows.
On Thursday, the USDA will begin its Outlook Conference for 2024 which will likely end up showing increased ending stocks with a trend line yield of around 183 bpa, above 2023’s record yield of 177.3 bpa.
Yesterday. corn inspections totaled 34.6 mb for the week ending February 8. Total inspections for 23/24 are now at 577 mb which is up 31% from the previous year.
Brazil’s safrinha corn crop production estimates have been raised by 5 mmt to 91.2 mmt with increased planted acreage and improved weather conditions.
Soybeans are slightly lower this morning after a rebound yesterday. Lower soybean meal is adding pressure while soybean oil is higher along with crude oil.
Yesterday, soybeans got support from the export inspections report which showed 48.7 mb of soybeans inspected which was above expectations. Total inspections are now at 1,131 mb, down 23% from last year.
In the USDA’s crop outlook forum, 24/25 crops are expected to be similar in size to last year, but fewer corn acres could be planted in favor of more soybeans and wheat.
Malaysian palm oil stocks fall by 11.83% at the end of January with exports falling by 0.85%. The decline in stocks is positive for soybean oil.
All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning as prices remain rangebound and traders struggle to find news that will cause the complex to rally.
In Texas, the winter wheat crop ratings fell to 42% good to excellent from 46% the previous week, but the poor to very poor rating fell from 20% to 19%.
Yesterday’s export inspections were better than the previous week for wheat at 15 mb, and there were cargoes to China, but total inspections are still down 18% from last year.
In Russia, the Ag Ministry has proposed to raise its grain export quota to 28 mmt from 24 mmt for 2024 with a separate quota for wheat.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
March corn is trading higher this morning but still remains just a few cents off its contract low with the expectation of large South American supplies.
In Brazil, farmers are selling very little corn as they remain hopeful that prices will improve with possible lower production in 23/24.
Rains have begun to fall in Argentina and continue to fall throughout Brazil. The Argentinian rains are crucial after a period of hot and dry weather.
Last Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of 17,593 contracts of corn leaving them with a nearly record net short position of 297,744 contracts.
Soybeans are trading higher this morning along with corn as prices attempt to rebound after Friday’s poor close and overall bearishness from the WASDE report.
More Brazilian farm land is boing sold to larger companies such as BrasilAgro due to low prices causing farmers to reduce their planted areas.
The Brazilian soybean harvest is now estimated to be around 23.83% complete for the 23/24 marketing year which compares to 17.39% at this time last year.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of 22,053 contracts of soybeans increasing their net short position to 130,300 contracts, the largest since 2019.
All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning despite higher corn and soybeans as US winter wheat quality benefits from improved weather.
In Ukraine, wheat production has been assessed and showed that while winter wheat acres are down, they will likely be replaced with spring wheat for total acres to be unchanged.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds adding to their net short position by 1,920 contracts which has left them with a net short position of 66,738 contracts.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower this morning following yesterday’s USDA report that showed growing US ending stocks and Brazilian corn production that was higher than expected.
The USDA said that corn ending stocks rose by 10 mb, but trade was looking for a slight decrease. They also pegged Brazil’s corn production at 124 mmt, far above CONAB’s guess of 114 mmt and above the average trade guess.
Following the El Nino weather pattern, a La Nina pattern is expected to develop in the second half of this year which could bring dry weather to North America.
The Argentinian corn crop was slightly damaged by the recent hot and dry spell, but upcoming rains are expected to reactivate the crop.
Soybeans are trading lower this morning after a bearish WASDE report yesterday. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower and are in downward trends.
At this point, March and November soybeans are set to post a loss on the week, and funds were sellers of an estimated 1,000 contracts of soybeans yesterday. There has been little motivation for funds to stop selling grains.
Yesterday’s USDA report showed US ending stocks increasing by more than expected to 315 mb from 280 mb in January as a result of lower exports.
There is a large discrepancy between the USDA’s Brazil production estimate of 156 mmt and CONAB’s estimate of 149 mmt. World ending stocks rose slightly.
Wheat is mixed this morning with the Chicago contract slightly higher while KC and Minneapolis wheat are trading lower. Yesterday’s WASDE report was slightly bearish.
Yesterday, the USDA said that wheat ending stocks in the US were unchanged, but trade was expecting a lower number which caused a bearish reaction. World ending stocks fell slightly.
The Indian government announced that it would reduce the stock limits of wheat for traders and large chain retailers to avoid an artificial scarcity of wheat.
Non-commercials were estimated to have sold 6,000 contracts of wheat yesterday at a time where ending stock estimates are at their tightest levels since 2015.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading unchanged to slightly higher ahead of today’s USDA report which shouldn’t hold many huge surprises but could see some adjustments to South American production.
CONAB has released its latest estimates of Brazilian corn production with 113.696 mmt expected. This is below the USDA’s last guess, 13.8% lower than last year, and acres planted down by 8.2%.
Estimates for today’s report have US ending stocks falling slightly, world ending stocks decreasing, Brazilian production falling, but Argentinian production increasing slightly.
Yesterday’s ethanol production report saw ethanol stocks rise by 2.1% to 24.779m bbl, and plant production at 1.033m b/d which was above expectations.
Soybeans are modestly higher to start the day as traders wait to see what the USDA releases. Soybean meal is slightly lower this morning while soybean oil is higher.
CONAB released its estimates for Brazilian soybean production and sees the number at 149.40 mmt, below the USDA’s estimate. This would be a decline of 3.4% from last year despite an increase in acreage of 2.3%.
US ending stocks are expected to rise slightly in today’s WASDE, exports are expected to be lowered, world ending stocks to fall slightly, Argentinian beans to increase, and Brazilian bean production to fall.
Following a hot and dry spell in Argentina that lasted over a week, rainfall is now expected over the next few days in critical growing areas which should bring relief.
All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with Chicago posting the largest losses as wheat maintains a tight trading range.
Today’s WASDE report should hold few surprises for wheat as US and world ending stocks are not expected to change, but US exports could increase slightly.
US ending stocks for wheat are still pegged at the second tightest in the last decade, wheat price have been unable to find reason to rally but appear to be building support near current prices.
Long-term moisture deficits still remain in portions of the US Plains but a continued active pattern should help to gradually ease those deficits.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
March corn is lower this morning, down to a new contract low ahead of Thursday’s USDA WASDE report.
Chinese corn futures have rallied in the last two weeks and are approaching a $4 per bushel premium to US futures. Brazilian corn values are over $1 per bushel higher than US futures and about 40 cents per bushel higher than US gulf export prices.
Estimates for South American production in the WASDE report have Argentinian production higher at 55.8 mb and Brazilian production slightly lower at 124.8 mmt.
A frontal system across Argentina is expected to deliver much needed moisture after a two week stretch of dryness and excessive heat. Rainfall in Brazils largest producing regions should be diminishing this week after a wet stretch to allow second crop corn planting to progress along.
Soybeans are down sharply this morning giving back much of the early week rally in prices.
China is moving aggressively to prop up their equity markets in an attempt to bolster consumer confidence. The strength of the Chinese economy is vital to world soybean demand.
Conab, the Brazilian national supply company, is scheduled to release its latest crop estimates Thursday at 9 am local time. A pre-report Bloomberg survey shows analyst expect the estimate to come in just above 150 mmt, this would be down about 5 mmt from their January estimate.
The USDA in January pegged the Brazilian soybean crop at 157 mmt. Analysts expect the USDA to make about a 4 mmt cut to the Brazilian soybean estimate in Thursday’s report. Argentina’s soybean crop size is expected to see a slight increase tomorrow from the USDA going from 50 mmt in January up to 50.8 mmt.
Wheat is lower across the board this morning following both corn and soybeans.
US ending stocks for wheat are still pegged at the second tightest in the last decade, wheat price have been unable to find reason to rally but appear to be building support near current prices.
Weather in most of Europe has been mild and dry for a majority of the winter so far. The greatest moisture deficits are appearing in southern Europe and northern Africa. Temperature are expected to continue to be warm with no threat of an artic freeze.
Long-term moisture deficits still remain in portions of the US Plains but a continued active pattern should help to gradually ease those deficits.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
March corn ended the day unchanged yesterday and this morning is trading slightly higher as non-commercials position themselves ahead of Thursday’s WASDE report.
Yesterday’s export inspections for corn were on the lowest end of expectations at 24.6 mb but overall, exports are still 30% above last year’s pace.
Estimates for South American production in the WASDE report have Argentinian production higher at 55.8 mb and Brazilian production slightly lower at 124.8 mmt.
Weather has improved in Brazil, and second crop corn planting in underway with 27% complete in the central region which compares to 11% the previous week.
Soybeans finished the day higher yesterday and are higher again this morning following yesterday’s solid export inspections report.
So far this morning, soybean meal is lower which could pressure beans but soybean oil is higher with higher crude oil. Crush margins have improved slightly and are attractive to processors.
Yesterday’s export inspections were impressive at 52.4 mb with 35.2 mb of that number headed to China. The bearish aspect is that total inspections are still down 24% from last year at this time.
The demand for soybean oil in Brazil is expected to rise significantly this year with a 27.5% increase in order to produce more biodiesel. They are expected to crush 7.4 mmt.
Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago higher, KC lower, and Minneapolis unchanged despite higher prices in both corn and soybeans.
With little fresh news in the wheat complex, futures are struggling to maintain their recent gains and are sliding with a lack of significant export sales.
In Texas, the winter wheat crop ratings have improved to 46% good to excellent which is up 2% from the previous week. Crops rated poor to very poor fell to 20% from 26% last week.
Shipments of wheat out of Brazil are moving at a good pace with 812.18 thousand tons wheat in January.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
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