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All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading lower this morning after breaking its five-day streak of consecutive gains yesterday with a slightly lower close. 
• Yesterday’s export sales were within expectations but were slightly disappointing given how competitive the US is globally right now, but commitments are still running above pace.
• Argentina had around a week’s worth of drier weather recently, but overall the growing season has been very favorable, and now the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has revised its production higher to 56.5 mmt from 55 mmt.
• Sales of ethanol within Brazil have risen significantly this month as they are reportedly running out of storage due to a bumper crop. Total ethanol sales have risen by 44% year over year.

• Soybeans are trading lower again this morning following yesterday’s poor close with both soybean meal and oil lower as the outlook for Argentina improves.
• The 8 to 10-day forecast in Argentina is now projecting more rain, and improvements in Argentine weather are typically bearish for US soybean meal prices as the country is the top exporter of meal.
• The value of soybean meal and oil have fallen at a slightly more rapid pace than soybeans recently causing crush margins to narrow. This may cause processors to crush fewer bushels.
• Shipments down the Mississippi River have fallen significantly during the week ending Jan 20 which has caused rates to decline. Soybean shipments were down 52% week over week.

• All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning, but March Chicago wheat is still above its 100-day moving average and is significantly off its contract lows.
• Yesterday’s export sales were nothing to get excited about, but 3 mb of wheat were shipped to China, and 28 mb of wheat have been shipped so far with 60 mb more to go.
• While Australia has received beneficial rains that have saved a portion of their crop, the weather pattern there has turned stormy with a tropical cyclone damaging the Queensland area.
• Cheap Russian wheat prices remain the largest force of downward pressure for global wheat prices. Their crop has appeared to grow each year and they essentially set the price for the rest of the world.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is unchanged to slightly lower this morning in quiet trade, but has been trending higher since last Thursday and is 15 cents off that low in the March contract.
• On February 15, the USDA will hold its Ag Outlook meeting where planted corn acres will be estimated, and may analysts are lookin for a decline of as much as 1.6 million acres.
• Funds were estimated to have bought back 2,000 contracts of corn yesterday and appear to be slowly unraveling their very large net short position.
• The world’s first plant which uses ethanol to produce jet fuel is set to open in the US and will use a combination of US corn and other raw materials.

• Soybeans are slightly higher this morning but have been bouncing around on either side of unchanged which was similar to yesterday’s trade which ended with a small gain.
• Soybean meal is higher again for the third consecutive day as it rebounds from oversold conditions. Soybean oil is slightly lower despite higher crude oil and a higher trend in palm oil.
• Russia is set to export a significantly larger amount of vegetable oil this year at 6.5 million tonnes which is a third more than the previous year. This is a result of record seed crop harvests.
• Due to falling vegetation density levels in Mato Grosso and Parana, major soybean growing areas in Brazil, total Brazilian production is now expected to shrink by 2% to an average guess of 149 mmt.

• All three wheat classes are trading slightly higher this morning and have continued their trend up recently despite little bullish news. This action indicates that the funds may be buying back some of their net short position.
• SovEcon has raised their estimate for Russian wheat production by 0.9 mmt to 92.2 mmt citing good conditions with an abundant snow cover on the winter crops.
• Ukraine has taken back control of the Black Sea shipping route for the most part and is now shipping millions of tons of food. The problems in the Red Sea however could threaten trade with Asia.
• Estimates for today’s export sales report have wheat between 200k and 800k tons for an average of 518k tons. Last week’s exports were better than expected.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading higher this morning and would be on track for its fifth consecutively higher close, something corn has not been able to do since May of 2023.
• Heavy rains are expected this week along the US Gulf coast and Delta regions, this should help cut into drought conditions and raise unusually low Mississippi river levels. 
• Showers in northern and central Brazil over the next ten days could be a setback to early planted soybean harvest but the rains will benefit soil moisture for safrinha corn planting which has just started. 
• European Union corn imports through January 19th totaled 9.86 mmt, down 42% from a year ago. 

• Soybeans are trading higher this morning after yet another strong close yesterday. Soybean meal is up this morning, while soybean oil is slightly lower along with crude oil.
• Most areas of Argentina and southern Brazil were drier last week and will not see much relief in the next ten days. After a near perfect start to the growing season, falling crop conditions are expected in Argentina as the calendar flips to February. 
• China’s soybean production reached a record 20.8 mmt in 2023 according to a report by Sinhua News Agency this week citing data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. 
• Phillips 66 will soon be able to operate it’s 50,000 barrel per day renewable diesel plant in Rodeo, California after clearing a court-ordered review of environmental impacts tied to the project last week.   

• All three wheat classes are trading slightly higher this morning with the winter wheat’s leading the gains. 
• European Union soft-wheat exports in the marketing year beginning July 1 were 17.4 mmt vs 18.8 mmt last year. 
• Stocks of hard red spring wheat stored in Minnesota and Wisconsin export warehouses are down about 900,000 bushels year over year to come in at 15.473 million bushels in the week ending January 21. 
• After freezing rain in some areas earlier this week, warmer air and periods of rain showers are expected through much of the plains this week which should be favorable for increasing soil moisture levels for dormant wheat. 

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading higher this morning and would be on track for a fourth consecutively higher close as prices rebound from oversold conditions.
• Yesterday’s export inspections report was within trade expectations at 713k tons, but that was below last week’s 946k tons and also lower than the previous year at this time.
• Brazil’s first crop corn harvest is now 8.4% complete as of January 19 which compares to 1.5% a year ago and the 5-year average of 5.8%. 
• Yesterday, the funds were estimated to have bought back 500 contracts of corn, but still hold a very large net short position, and open interest has risen significantly.

• Soybeans are trading higher this morning after a strong close yesterday. Soybean meal has been trending lower but is up today, while soybean oil is slightly lower along with crude oil.
• Brazil’s soy harvest for 23/24 is 6% complete which compares to 2.3% last week and 1.8% a year ago. The areas that suffered from drought have been getting harvested first.
• China is continuing its plans to expand oilseed production in the country by planting GMO soybeans and corn in an effort to reduce reliance on other countries for imports.
• Yesterday’s export inspections were a little soft at 1,161k tons which was down 9.2% from the previous week and down 36.9% from a year ago.

• All three wheat classes are trading slightly higher this morning, and March Chicago wheat would be on track for a fifth consecutive higher close despite slow export sales.
• Australia’s weather has improved lately, and its wheat crop is now estimated as much as 5 mmt higher than previous estimates.
• Yesterday’s export sales were soft again at 314k tons but were slightly higher than last week. A good portion of that wheat is bound for China which is encouraging.
• Yesterday, funds were estimated to have bought back 2,000 contracts of wheat which would have reduced their net short position slightly. Funds have been slowly unraveling their short position over the past few weeks.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading lower this morning after prices began to rebound on Thursday and Friday of last week. Last week’s stronger export sales were supportive.
• In Brazil, spot corn prices have been in a downward trend with Argentina’s wet forecast pointing to improved production, and Brazil seeing improvements in its forecast as well.
• Last week, China released import data that showed 2023 imports of corn at 27.1 mmt. Total imports were for December were 4.95 mmt and the largest month in Chinese history.
• Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials as sellers of corn by 29,819 contracts which increased their net short position to 260,542 contracts as of Jan 16.

• Soybeans are trading slightly lower this morning with pressure from soybean meal while soybean oil trades slightly higher. Soybean meal hasn’t fallen this low since July of 2022.
• Last week’s strong export sales report and unexpected flash sale to China both added support to the market, but trade appears to be fixated on the upcoming South American harvest.
• In 2023, Chinese imports of soybean from Brazil rose by 29% while imports from the US fell by 13%. Shipments from Brazil totaled 69.95 mmt as China opted for their cheaper soybeans.
• Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials as sellers of 45,549 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 76,797 contracts.

• All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with the rest of the grain complex after some turnaround last week. Export sales were better than expected for wheat.
• Shipments of European wheat are avoiding the Suez Canal to avoid the fighting by Houthi rebels and are using alternative routes to reach Asia and Africa.
• The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East over the weekend could result in higher crude oil which would eventually raise the prices of other commodities.
• Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials as sellers of 10,587 contracts of wheat which increased their net short position to 68,575 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading higher this morning after rebounding yesterday off of new contract lows at $4.36-3/4 in the March contract. 
• The House and Senate both passed bills yesterday to avoid a government shutdown, and this is likely giving support to both commodity and equity markets.
• Weather for Argentina has turned slightly drier in the near term forecast, and 93% of their crop is reportedly planted compared to 85% last week.
• Estimates for today’s export sales report in corn are between 500k and 1,200k tons with an average guess of 747k tons. Flash sales have been sparse and only to Mexico, so the number will likely be on the softer side.

• Soybeans are higher for the second consecutive day as they attempt to rebound from extremely oversold conditions. Both soybean meal and oil are higher as well.
• Argentina’s soy crop has benefitted from very good weather which has had analysts increasing their production estimates, but the 10-day forecast is dry and the crop could get stressed.
• Agroconsult is expecting Chinese imports of soy to decline in 23/24 as they have already purchased a large stockpile, and less bean meal is being used for feed.
• Estimates for today’s export sales report in soybeans see a range between 250k and 900k tons with an average guess of 528k tons, but with no flash sales to speak of, that number will likely be on the low end of estimates.

• All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning along with the rest of the grain complex. There was a decline in the US Dollar overnight which is typically supportive to wheat.
• Soft wheat production estimates in the EU for 24/25 have been revised lower to 122.7 mmt mainly due to poor weather conditions.
• FranceAgriMer has cut their estimate of 23/24 French wheat exports due to significantly lower demand from China. China has been purchasing the large majority of its wheat from Russia.
• Estimates for wheat in today’s export sales report are expected to be low with a range between 150k and 500k tons. Export demand could start to improve with prices so low in the US.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading slightly higher after selling intensified yesterday causing the March contract to make a new low at $4.40 which appears to be a level of support.
• Open interest increased by 25,000 contracts which indicates that non-commercials are adding to their already large net short position.
• Ethanol production is expected to be lower than last week at 1.054 million barrels per day with the stockpile expected to rise to 24.577 m bbl compared to 24.371 a week ago.
• It is estimated that funds were sellers of approximately 2,000 contracts of corn yesterday which would leave them with a net short position of around 268,000 contracts.

• Soybeans are trading higher today after a sharp selloff yesterday that was triggered by poor economic data out of China that could impact US export demand.
• Despite the struggling Chinese economy, estimates for Brazilian soybean production continue to slip which should be friendly to prices. Most analysts are predicting 150 mmt or lower for production, but there have been guesses as low as 135 mmt. The USDA is still at 157 mmt.
• Palm oil prices are expected to increase by 4% this year due to improving biodiesel demand and unchanging output. Malaysian output is seen at 18.75 million tons while Indonesia is seen at 48.87 mln tons.
• Yesterday, non-commercials sold an estimated 7,500 contracts of soybeans, and open interest is 41,000 contracts higher than a year ago which points to fund selling.

• Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago and KC slightly lower but Minneapolis higher. The recent cold snap could have done some damage to winter wheat and could be supportive to prices.
• The Brazilian wheat crop for 23/24 is now seen at 8.25 mmt compared to 8.59 mmt in last months estimate. Expected imports have risen as well to 7.05 mmt from 6.37 mmt.
• There is currently talk of 2 Chinese vessels at US Gulf terminals set to load SRW wheat. Presumably these would be the first loadings of the wheat purchased back in early December.
• FranceAgriMer has cut their estimate of 23/24 French wheat exports due to significantly lower demand from China. China has been purchasing the large majority of its wheat from Russia.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• In a quiet 2 1/4 cent range, corn is trading lower this morning as it continues to battle a lack of bullish news.
• Yesterday, the USDA reported weekly corn export inspections at 876,000 mt (34.5 MB) for the week ending January 11.  So far, total inspections have reached 548 mb, up 29% over last year, whereas the USDA is forecasting a 26% jump.
• While US corn export prices have become more competitive with Brazil recently, prices from Argentina and Ukraine are cheaper.
• South American crop watch Dr. Cordonnier, lowered his estimate of Brazilian corn production from 117 mmt to 115 mmt, while at the same time raising Argentina’s corn production estimate 3mmt to 56 mmt. His Brazilian corn estimate is well below the USDA’s 127 mmt estimate and just under Conab’s estimate of 117.6 mmt.
• The head of estimates at the Rosario Grain Exchange commented that there is a good chance that Argentina’s corn harvest could top current estimates of 59 mmt with the regular shower activity the country has been seeing. The USDA is currently estimating Argentina’s crop at 55 mmt.

• Soybeans are weaker this morning and trading near session lows, as weakness from lower soybean oil drags on prices.
• Both soybean meal and oil are lower this morning as meal consolidates with minor losses from yesterday’s gains, while soybean oil continues its track lower showing 0.50 cent losses.
• Yesterday’s NOPA crush report that showed 195.33 million bushels of soybeans crushed in December. This came in well above the average trade guess and set a new record. The crush was up 10% year over year and up 5% from the prior December high. Following the NOPA report, soybean oil retreated as soybean oil stocks were much higher than expected and pegged at 1.36 billion pounds, though stocks were down 24% from last year.
• A Brazilian farm lobby has stated that current estimates of Brazil’s soybean production are too high given the tough growing conditions.  The lobby estimates 23/24 production closer to 135 mmt. Whereas the current USDA estimate puts the crop at 157 mmt.

• The wheat complex is mixed this morning as all three classes trade quietly in tight 4-5 cent ranges with Chicago and KC showing minor gains, while Minneapolis retreats.
• There is currently talk of 2 Chinese vessels at US Gulf terminals set to load SRW wheat. Presumably these would be the first loadings of the wheat purchased back in early December.
• Weekly wheat inspections reported by the USDA yesterday came in at 8.6 mb, bringing 23/24 total inspections to 381 mb, which is below the pace needed to meet the USDA’s projection and down 16% from last year. The USDA’s estimate for 23/24 exports remains at 725 mb.
• With this recent cold snap, it is currently estimated that about 20% of the US winter wheat crop has been exposed to the extreme cold, and it is unknown how much has been damaged if any.
• According to FranceAgriMer, estimates of France’s soft wheat exports for 23/24 have been reduced to 17.01 mmt, down from December’s estimate of 17.2 mmt, showing slower demand. This also raised the countries ending stocks to 3.43 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading lower this morning on momentum from Friday’s WASDE report that saw higher production in the US for 23/24 as yields were increased to 177.3 bpa, up significantly from the previous week.
• South American corn production was not lowered as much as trade had expected despite dry conditions with Brazil pegged at 127 mmt down from 129 mmt last month, and Argentina unchanged at 55 mmt.
• Corn prices in Brazil have declined over the past week due to the beginning of the first crop corn harvest and an overall decrease in demand.
• For the week ending Tuesday, January 9, non-commercials sold another 33,397 contracts of corn increasing their net short position to 230,723 contracts.

• Soybeans are trading higher this morning and although they had a negative reaction to the WASDE report, they settled significantly off of Friday’s lows.
• The USDA increased soybean ending stocks and overall production, but supportive was that the US stocks to use ratio is only 6.7%, and CONAB has released Brazilian production numbers that are closer to 150 mmt and are likely more accurate.
• December soybean crush was seen at a record 192.6 mb which was up 8.5% from this time last year and up 1.9% from last month.
• Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of soybeans by 19,619 contracts increasing their net short position to 31,248 contracts.

• All three wheat classes are trading slightly higher this morning after last week’s USDA report which was mostly bearish apart from the wheat seedings number.
• Wheat seedings were expected to decline by around 800,000 acres but the report revealed a decline of 1.4 million acres. World wheat ending stocks also fell slightly which was supportive.
• Ships carrying over 1.3 mmt of grains have been diverted from the Red Sea to other routes due to attacks against Houthi rebels, adding to world shipping issues.
• Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of wheat by 2,289 contracts decreasing their net short position to 57,988 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading slightly higher this morning as prices consolidate ahead of the WASDE report which will be released at 11am central today.
• Argentina’s corn crop is now estimated to be a record large 59 mmt which is 4 mmt above the last guess by the USDA and way higher than last season’s drought year.
• On Wednesday, CONAB reduced estimated Brazilian corn production by 5 mmt to 117.6 mmt which is 11 mmt lower than the USDA’s last guess. It is likely that production is reduced in today’s report.
• US corn exports are not expected to be adjusted in today’s report as they have been on track to meet USDA estimates, but exports are 37% higher than a year ago.

• Soybeans are trading higher this morning ahead of what could be a friendly WASDE report. Prices remain rangebound for the week, and both soybean meal and oil are higher.
• On Wednesday, CONAB cut their production estimates for Brazil to 155.3 mmt from 160.2 mmt, and the USDA’s last guess was 161 mmt. Many analysts see that number being even lower, closer to 150 mmt.
• Where Brazil will likely lose production due to the hot and dry conditions, Argentina is set to produce more than double of last year’s crop due to good weather.
• Weather forecasts for Argentina and most of Brazil are favorable with showers expected, but parts of western and central Brazil are expected to be dry over the next week.

• All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with Chicago wheat posting the largest gains. The March contract is in a bull pennant formation and more short covering by the funds could cause a breakout higher.
• Temperatures in the Midwest are expected to fall below zero next week which could damage wheat that has not gotten a cover of snow.
• In today’s report, traders will be watching wheat acreage closely, and they are expected to fall by about 800,000 acres or more to 35.8 million acres.
• Last week’s export sales of wheat were low at just 4.7 mb for 23/24, but there are rumors that China is looking to purchase US wheat.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.