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All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading slightly higher this morning but has been rangebound for over a week facing resistance at the 40-day moving average. Yesterday’s export sales were supportive.
• With planting in the US beginning soon, there is a concern about soil moisture in the western Corn Belt being too dry. There is rain in the forecast this weekend which should help.
• In Brazil, winter corn planting is seen at 93.1% complete which compares to 85.8% the previous year and a 5-year average of 82.4%. Parana is 96.4% complete while Sao Paulo is 70.2% complete.

• Soybeans are trading slightly lower this morning as soybean oil backs off its recent highs despite the rally in palm oil. Soybean meal is slightly higher this morning  but has trended lower which has reduced crush margins.
• Tomorrow the Federal Reserve will announce whether they are cutting interest rates or holding off, and the US dollar is pricing in that they will not reduce rates as it rallies this morning. Typically, rallies in the dollar are negative for commodities.
• In Indonesia, palm oil exports have fallen by 25.4% month over month to 1.59m tons from 2.13m tons in January. This has caused a rally in palm oil futures which has mostly supported soybean oil.

• Wheat is mixed this morning but is trending higher from lows earlier this morning. KC wheat is leading the way after winter wheat crop ratings were released by the USDA.
• For the week ending March 17, the USDA saw wheat conditions in Kansas increase to 55% good to excellent from 53%. In Oklahoma, ratings fell to 61% from 65%, and in Texas, they were increased to 46% from 44%.
• The European Union is considering a ban on imports of Russian wheat as the cheap imports are lowering prices domestically and causing farmers to protest across the EU.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading slightly higher this morning with support from the wheat market along with a stronger export sales pace. Prices have been consolidating right at the 40-day moving average in the May contract.
• In Brazil, rains have fallen across the country but more importantly in Mato Grosso which is a main growing area and had previously been dry for the second crop corn. These recent rains have caused Brazilian corn futures to fall.
• Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back a large amount of corn as of March 12. They bought back 40,867 contracts which lowered their previously record net short position to 255,928 contracts.

• Soybeans are starting the week lower after last week’s gains of around 14 cents in the May contract. Friday’s NOPA crush report which saw 186.194 mb crushed, a record for the month of February.
• Brazilian soybean premiums had risen over the past two weeks due to a lack of farmer selling in the country but with last week’s rally, the uptick in sales may be causing some weakness and lower premiums today. Brazil is now estimated to have harvested 62.25% of its 23/24 soybean crop.
• Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back soybeans but not in the same numbers as they did corn. They bought back 16,862 contracts which leaves them net short 155,137 contracts and no longer holding a record short position.

• All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning following news of drone attacks by Russia into the port city of Odesa in Ukraine. There were 16 drones that targeted at least 2 agricultural areas and were reportedly retaliation against Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure.
• The European Union is considering a ban on Russian imports of wheat as the cheap imports have lowered prices for local farmers sparking waves of protests across the EU. 
• Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of wheat by 13,331 contracts which increased their net short position to 78,870 contracts as of the 12th.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading slightly lower this morning after meeting resistance at the 45-day moving average on Tuesday and then continuing to move lower. Yesterday, export sales were solid and a flash sale was reported.
• A US weather forecaster is expecting a higher chance for a La Nina weather pattern over the summer which could cause drier conditions from June through August in the US.
• In yesterday’s export sales report, it was revealed that China bought a cargo of US corn, and another cargo was switched to China from unknown destinations. This is encouraging given the recent sales cancellations in soybeans.

• Soybeans are higher again this morning with support from both soybean meal and oil. Yesterday, soybean oil was a large driver for soybeans. May soybeans have hit resistance at the 50-day moving average which is around $12.00.
• The NOPA crush for February is seen at 178.058 million bushels which would be a record high for the month of February. This number would be down 4.2% from January’s crush but up 7.6% from the previous year.
• In Argentina, the states of Cordoba and Buenos Aires are receiving too much rain which could hinder the soybean harvest there. In addition, there have been rumors that the government will implement another round of the soy dollar program to incentivize farmer selling.

• All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning despite losses in both corn and soybeans. China has canceled a number of US wheat shipments over the past week, but yesterday it canceled a shipment from Australia which spooked the market.
• Yesterday’s export sales were a marketing year low thanks to Chinese cancellations, but that was mostly expected. Russia and Ukraine remain the most competitive exporters and continue to dominate export trade.
• China’s wheat market is reportedly soft as a result of higher supply and lower demand. This could point to a weakening economy and explains the recent sales cancellations. 

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is lower to start the day, but the trend recently has shown lower prices in the morning before rallying into the end of day. May futures have met resistance at the 45-day moving average.
• Today, the USDA will release its export sales report, and the range of trade guesses are between 800k and 1,400k tons with an average guess of 1,015k tons.
• The brokerage firm Allendale Inc has estimated that US corn planting will decrease by 1.2% from a year ago at 93.472 million acres. They also estimate that soybean plantings in the US will increase by 2.7%.

• Soybeans are higher again this morning with support from both soybean meal and oil. Yesterday, soybean oil was a large driver for soybeans. May soybeans have hit resistance at the 50-day moving average which is around $12.00.
• The NOPA crush for February is seen at 178.058 million bushels which would be a record high for the month of February. This number would be down 4.2% from January’s crush but up 7.6% from the previous year.
• In Argentina, the states of Cordoba and Buenos Aires are receiving too much rain which could hinder the soybean harvest there. In addition, there have been rumors that the government will implement another round of the soy dollar program to incentivize farmer selling.

• All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning under pressure from a string of Chinese cancellations from the US and then yesterday rumors that China was cancelling French wheat purchases as well.
• Estimates for today’s export sales report in wheat are a range between -200k and 600k tons with an average guess of 335k tons. The Chinese cancellations could result in net cancellations.
• IKAR is now estimating Russian wheat exports in 2024/2025 near a record high 50 mmt with the harvest expected at 93 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is beginning the day slightly lower, this seems to have been the trend as of late. Prices have generally worked higher over the past two weeks which has resulted in a 36-cent move off of the low on the May contract so far.
• Brazil’s Conab cut 23/24 corn production by 944,000 tons to come in at 112.8 mmt in their March estimate this week. If realized this would be a 14.5% drop in corn production year over year for Brazil. 
• Extended forecasts for Mato Grosso, Brazil’s largest second crop corn state, are pointing to drier and warmer than normal. These forecasts, if verified, would likely trim production estimates. 
• The ethanol industry has thrived in the first half of the 23/24 marketing year with corn consumption running 5.9% above the long-term average. Ethanol margins remain strong across the Corn Belt but ethanol stocks are approaching near record levels. 

• Soybeans are lower this morning after yesterday’s strong move higher. From the 2/29 low to yesterdays high May soybean futures had rallied 68 cents. Soybean meal is lower this morning while soybean oil is higher.
• Brazil’s CONAB lowered their soybean production estimate by another 2.5 mmt to come in at 146.9 mmt. Their estimate is now 8.1 mmt (297 mb) lower than the USDA estimate for the 23/24 Brazilian soybean crop.  
• World vegetable oil prices have been stronger over the last two weeks with palm oil leading the gains due to lower production and lower stocks in southeast Asia. 
• Intense rains in Argentina are creating excess soil moisture and could hinder soybean harvest progress if the rains carry into April. The moisture is seen as very beneficial to the 24/25 wheat crop. 

• All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning following the lower trend in corn and soybean prices.
• Tuesday’s trade in Chicago wheat saw prices rally off of a lower start. Prices remain under the influence of Monday’s key reversal but below the February low near $5.53-1/2.  
• A push of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and abnormally warm temps should cause a few rounds of thunderstorms with good rain amounts to fall across the heart of the US over the next week helping to improve soil moisture levels. 

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is beginning the day slightly lower as has seemed to have been the trend over the past week. Prices have generally worked higher into the close which has resulted in a 30-cent move off of the low in May so far.
• Yesterday’s export inspections were good for corn with 44.2 mb inspected which put the total number at 859 mb for 23/24. This is up 33% from the previous year at a time where the US has the export advantage.
• In Brazil, the winter corn crop is estimated at 93% planted which compares to 86% last week and 82% the previous year. Scattered showers have continued to fall over the country. In the southern region, the corn harvest is 57% complete.

• Soybeans are trading slightly lower this morning but have been in an upward trend with prices in May now 49 cents off the lows. Soybean meal is higher this morning while soybean oil is lower despite higher crude oil.
• As the Brazilian harvest presses on, soybean premiums have trended higher since January due to a lack of farmer selling at those low prices. This morning, CONAB will update its estimates for Brazilian production.
• Yesterday’s export inspections totaled 26 mb which was on the low side but within the trade range. Total inspections for the year are now at 1,286 mb which is down 19% from the previous year.

• All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning after yesterday’s impressive reversal off the contract low. With little new fundamental news, the move was likely technical. May wheat is 19 cents off its low.
• Winter wheat crop conditions were largely unchanged over the previous week with Kansas’ good to excellent rating unchanged at 53%, Oklahoma unchanged at 53%, and Texas raised slightly to 44%.
• Wheat inspections totaled 14.8 mb which puts inspections for the year down 16%. China did cancel a previous purchase of 9.7 mb which brings all recent cancellations to 18.5 mb.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading lower this morning after an impressive move higher over the past week which confirmed that a temporary bottom is likely in. Funds had been heavily short ahead of the WASDE which puts those positions at risk and could result in further short covering.
• The big mover from Friday’s USDA report was the decline in global corn ending stocks by 2.4 mmt. The rest of the report was relatively neutral.
• As of March 5th, the funds were sellers of corn by 1,537 contracts which left them with a large net short position of 296,795 contracts. This number has likely gotten smaller since then with the move higher.

• Soybeans are trading lower along with corn this morning after gaining nearly 33 cents last week in the May contract. The WASDE report was a mixed bag, but funds were still short covering as prices moved well off their contract lows.
• The USDA refused to lower it estimate for Brazilian soybean production much on Friday and only dropped it by 1 mmt to 155 mmt despite many other private analysts expecting a number closer to 149 mmt. US ending stocks were not increased and export sales were not lowered.
• As of March 5, funds sold an additional 11,346 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 171,999 contracts. As in corn, this position is now likely much lower thanks to the higher move.

• All three wheat classes are trading lower along with the rest of the grain complex this morning, but unlike corn and soybeans, ended the week with a loss of 20 cents in the March Chicago contract. New contract lows were made on Friday.
• Wheat continues to struggle with a big lack of export demand, and last week’s cancellation of 130,000 mt of US SRW wheat did not help trader confidence. Friday’s WASDE report increased US ending stocks by 15 mb due to the lack of export sales.
• Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of 9,213 contracts of wheat increasing their net short position to 65,539 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• The corn market is lower this morning with the front months losing to the deferreds as it consolidates in a 4-cent range ahead of today’s 11 a.m. release of the USDA’s WASDE report.
• May corn futures rallied and closed above the 20-day moving average yesterday for the first time since late December.  There is not a lot of fresh news to drive this rally, possibly indicating that it is a technical correction with short covering in preparation of today’s WASDE report. 
• Analysts feel US corn carryout could drop about 17 mb to 2.159 mb in today’s USDA report with slight demand adjustments for ethanol usage or exports. South American production will remain a focus for the trade as well, where the USDA is expected to show little change in Argentina’s crop, but a 1.6 mmt reduction to Brazil’s is anticipated.
• In the USDA’s weekly export sales report, corn sales for the week ending February 29, came in as expected with 43.7 mb sold for the 23/24 marketing year. So far, total commitments of 1.544 bbu are running 28% ahead of last year’s pace with the USDA currently forecasting a 26% increase.
• Managed funds were active in the corn market on Thursday, buying an estimated 6,000 contracts as they covered short positions ahead of today’s USDA report. This brings their total estimated net short position to 343,000 contracts. 

• The soybean complex is trading quietly mixed this morning with front month soybeans lower than the deferreds, and both soybean meal and oil slightly lower.
• Today’s WASDE report isn’t expected to include any major surprises, but analysts expect that the US soybean carryout will see a slight increased by about 5 mb due to a decrease in exports. The trade will still focus on South American production. Where the Argentine soybean crop is expected to increase slightly to 50.3 mmt, while Brazil’s is expected to decrease to 152.8 mmt, from last month’s 156 mmt forecast.
• Stronger than anticipated soybean sales were reported in Thursday’s USDA weekly export sales report. Sales for the week ending February 29th came in at 22.5 mb for the 23/24 season and 2.4 mb for 24/25. Old crop beans sales marked a 7-week high. Though to date, old crop soybean sales remain behind last year’s commitments by 19% where the USDA is currently forecasting a 14% drop. 
• China’s soybean imports for the Jan-Feb time frame dropped to a 5-year low of just 13.04 mmt according to the General Administration of Customs. The drop represents an 8.8% decline from the same time last year. Poor crushing margins and delayed shipments were among the reasons given.
• Like corn, managed funds were active buyers in the soybean complex on Thursday as they covered short positions in anticipation of today’s USDA WASDE report. They bought an estimated 5,000 soybean contracts, 1,500 meal, and 3,500 soybean oil, bringing their total net short positions to 149,000 soybean contracts, 39,000 meal, and 55,000 soybean oil.

• The wheat complex is trading quietly in a 6 – 8 cent range across the complex with Chicago gaining on both KC and Minneapolis as it consolidates from yesterday’s losses ahead of today’s USDA WASDE report.
• Not much change is expected for US wheat in today’s WASDE report. The average trade guess for US wheat carryout is unchanged from last month at 658 mb. The average estimate for world wheat ending stocks comes in at 259.2 mmt versus 259.4 last month. The possibility remains that the USDA may lower US wheat exports from the current 725 mb. 
• Thursday morning the USDA reported that China cancelled 2 cargoes totaling 130,000 mt of US SRW wheat. This report confirmed rumors of cancellations that circulated on Wednesday and contributed to the weakness of the Chicago contracts. The market could see another 2 or 3 more cargoes potentially cancelled.
• Thursday the USDA reported 12 mb of wheat were sold for export in the week ending February 29th. The weekly total fell within expectations, and total 23/24 commitments of 677 mb are up 6% on the year, where the USDA is forecasting a 4.5% drop. 
• It was reported that Egypt cancelled a tender because of high prices, and in the meantime, Russia continues to export about 1 mmt of wheat per week while non-US exporters compete for lower world demand.
• Managed funds weren’t as active in the wheat as they were in the other pits, buying an estimated 500 contracts of Chicago wheat. Their total estimated short position remains near 85,000 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading higher this morning with the front months leading the deferreds as the market advances above its recent consolidation range and is trading above the 20-day moving average for the first time this year. 
• Yesterday’s weekly EIA report on ethanol production showed average daily production for the week ending March 1 at 1.057 million barrels, and corn used during the week was 104.91 million bushels, which was above the pace needed to reach the USDA’s target. Ethanol stocks did come in at a record 26.051 million barrels.
• Weekly corn export sales figures for the week ending Feb. 29th will be released later this morning with current estimates running between 45 and 78.4 mb for the 23/24 marketing year. 
• China continues to buy cheaper Ukrainian corn due to its discount on the world market. US FOB prices are currently running about $192/mt versus Ukraine’s $169.
• Managed funds were seen covering some short positions yesterday, buying an estimated 1,000 contracts. They currently hold a net short position estimated at 349,000 contracts.

• The soybean complex is higher across the board with all three commodities trading near the upper end of their recent consolidation ranges, as they regain yesterday’s losses.
• The Chinese Dalian markets were all higher for beans, meal, oil and palm oil, lending some support to the US markets. Although, Malaysian palm oil was slightly lower.
• Export prices in Brazil reported jumped yesterday to $428/mt. Though this is still cheaper than US offers at a comparable $447/mt, the jump likely is adding support to this morning’s prices.
• Weekly soybean export sales figures for the week ending Feb. 29th will be released later this morning with current estimates running between 10.5 and 36 mb for the 23/24 marketing year.
• Managed funds were relatively quiet in yesterday’s trade. Their activity in the soybean pit was estimated to be about even between buying and selling, while they bought an estimated 2,000 meal contracts and 1,500 soybean oil contracts. They are currently estimated to be net short about 154,000 soybean contracts, 40,000 meal, and 58,000 soybean oil.

• The wheat complex is currently higher across all three classes with KC and Minneapolis showing the largest gains.
• Rumors that China may be looking to cancel open US purchases due to the recent price drop, weighed heavily on the markets yesterday in which both Chicago and KC printed fresh contract lows.
• It’s also rumored that Russia’s export prices may have dropped even further to where they may be below $190/mt. This may keep a lid on prices when compared to current US offers near $232/mt.
•  Later this morning weekly wheat export sales figures for the week ending Feb. 29th will be released. Current trade estimates are for 23/24 sale to come in between 15 and 33 mb.
• Managed funds were quite active in the wheat market yesterday, selling an estimated 7,000 contracts of Chicago wheat. This activity now brings their estimated net short position to 85,000 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is quietly trading back and forth near unchanged this morning in a tight 2 cent range as the market prepares for Friday’s USDA WASDE update.
• Later today the EIA will release its weekly ethanol production report. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg are expecting lower production totaling about 1.071 mil. barrels/day with an increase in stocks to 26.132 mil. barrels. If realized this would be the highest stocks figure since last March.
• So far this season since July 1, its estimated that Ukraine’s corn exports are down 16% year over year according to their Ag Ministry. Currently, Ukraine’s corn export prices are the cheapest in the world, though US offers remain competitive when considering freight. 
• In Friday’s WASDE report, the market is expecting to see a slight reduction of the US carryout projection by 17 mb, but the market may focus more on the Argentina and Brazil production estimates. Little change is expected to Argentina’s crop, but a 1.6 mmt reduction to Brazil’s is expected.

• The soybean complex is mixed this morning with soybeans mixed and near unchanged with a 9cent range. While meal trades lower continuing yesterday’s weakness, and bean oil firmer as it continues to consolidate.
• Soybean basis bids firmed yesterday, according to merchandisers, at processing plants and elevators as the futures market slid and farmer selling remained light. Basis at river terminals was mostly unchanged.
• Analyst Dorab Mistry stated that he expects Southeast Aisian palm oil production to drop by 1 million metric tons in Indonesia and remain stagnant in Malaysia the worlds two largest palm oil producers. He also expects total demand to increase by 6 mmt with supplies increasing just 3.1 mmt which could press prices higher for the world’s most prominent veg oil and support bean oil prices.
• Friday’s WASDE report isn’t expected to include any major surprises, but analysts expect that the US soybean carryout will see a slight increase by about 5 mb on reduced exports. A main focus by the trade will be on South American production. The Argentine soybean crop is expected to increase slightly to 50.3 mmt, while Brazil’s is expected to decrease to 152.8 mmt, from last month’s 156 mmt forecast.

• The wheat complex is lower this morning for all three classes, as it follows through from yesterday’s weakness.
• Low export prices out of the Black Sea and Russia continue to pressure the wheat market.  Black Sea FOB values dropped below $200 per mt, with Russia just above that level; this keeps the US uncompetitive in terms of exports. Additionally, since July 1, Ukraine’s wheat shipments are estimated to be about 4% higher than this time last year, with 163k mt shipped so far in March.
• According to Interfax, Vladimir Putin stated that he expects Russia to export 65 mmt of grain for the 23/24 season, which is 5 mmt more than the nation exported last year.
• On Friday’s USDA report, there are few changes expected to the US numbers. The average pre-report estimate for US wheat carryout is 658 mb, which would be unchanged from last month. The world ending stocks estimate comes in at 259.2 mmt versus 259.4 last month. There is a chance that the USDA could lower US wheat exports from the current 725 mb. 

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.