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2-9 Opening Update: Corn and Soybeans Lower Following Yesterday’s WASDE Report

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’24 431 -2.25
JUL ’24 452 -2
DEC ’24 470.5 -1.75

Soybeans

MAR ’24 1185.5 -8
JUL ’24 1201.5 -7.75
NOV ’24 1167.25 -5.5

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’24 591.75 3.25
JUL ’24 598 0.75
JUL ’25 636.5 0

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’24 597 -4
JUL ’24 588.75 -4.75
JUL ’25 632 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’24 682.5 -1.25
JUL ’24 685.5 -2.5
SEP ’24 693.25 -0.75

S&P 500

MAR ’24 5025 7.25

Crude Oil

APR ’24 76.08 -0.11

Gold

APR ’24 2045.8 -2.1

  • Corn is trading lower this morning following yesterday’s USDA report that showed growing US ending stocks and Brazilian corn production that was higher than expected.
  • The USDA said that corn ending stocks rose by 10 mb, but trade was looking for a slight decrease. They also pegged Brazil’s corn production at 124 mmt, far above CONAB’s guess of 114 mmt and above the average trade guess.
  • Following the El Nino weather pattern, a La Nina pattern is expected to develop in the second half of this year which could bring dry weather to North America.
  • The Argentinian corn crop was slightly damaged by the recent hot and dry spell, but upcoming rains are expected to reactivate the crop.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning after a bearish WASDE report yesterday. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower and are in downward trends.
  • At this point, March and November soybeans are set to post a loss on the week, and funds were sellers of an estimated 1,000 contracts of soybeans yesterday. There has been little motivation for funds to stop selling grains.
  • Yesterday’s USDA report showed US ending stocks increasing by more than expected to 315 mb from 280 mb in January as a result of lower exports.
  • There is a large discrepancy between the USDA’s Brazil production estimate of 156 mmt and CONAB’s estimate of 149 mmt. World ending stocks rose slightly.

  • Wheat is mixed this morning with the Chicago contract slightly higher while KC and Minneapolis wheat are trading lower. Yesterday’s WASDE report was slightly bearish.
  • Yesterday, the USDA said that wheat ending stocks in the US were unchanged, but trade was expecting a lower number which caused a bearish reaction. World ending stocks fell slightly.
  • The Indian government announced that it would reduce the stock limits of wheat for traders and large chain retailers to avoid an artificial scarcity of wheat.
  • Non-commercials were estimated to have sold 6,000 contracts of wheat yesterday at a time where ending stock estimates are at their tightest levels since 2015. 

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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2-8 Opening Update: Grains Slightly Higher Ahead of WASDE Report Today

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’24 434 -0.25
JUL ’24 455.25 -0.25
DEC ’24 473.25 -0.5

Soybeans

MAR ’24 1193.5 4.5
JUL ’24 1211 4
NOV ’24 1172.5 1.75

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’24 593.25 -8.75
JUL ’24 601.5 -9
JUL ’25 647.75 0

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’24 610.5 -7.75
JUL ’24 599 -10.5
JUL ’25 645 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’24 692 -4.25
JUL ’24 697 -3.5
SEP ’24 701.75 -4.75

S&P 500

MAR ’24 5008.75 -6.5

Crude Oil

APR ’24 74.68 0.77

Gold

APR ’24 2041.9 -9.8

  • Corn is trading unchanged to slightly higher ahead of today’s USDA report which shouldn’t hold many huge surprises but could see some adjustments to South American production.
  • CONAB has released its latest estimates of Brazilian corn production with 113.696 mmt expected. This is below the USDA’s last guess, 13.8% lower than last year, and acres planted down by 8.2%.
  • Estimates for today’s report have US ending stocks falling slightly, world ending stocks decreasing, Brazilian production falling, but Argentinian production increasing slightly.
  • Yesterday’s ethanol production report saw ethanol stocks rise by 2.1% to 24.779m bbl, and plant production at 1.033m b/d which was above expectations.

  • Soybeans are modestly higher to start the day as traders wait to see what the USDA releases. Soybean meal is slightly lower this morning while soybean oil is higher.
  • CONAB released its estimates for Brazilian soybean production and sees the number at 149.40 mmt, below the USDA’s estimate. This would be a decline of 3.4% from last year despite an increase in acreage of 2.3%.
  • US ending stocks are expected to rise slightly in today’s WASDE, exports are expected to be lowered, world ending stocks to fall slightly, Argentinian beans to increase, and Brazilian bean production to fall.
  • Following a hot and dry spell in Argentina that lasted over a week, rainfall is now expected over the next few days in critical growing areas which should bring relief.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with Chicago posting the largest losses as wheat maintains a tight trading range.
  • Today’s WASDE report should hold few surprises for wheat as US and world ending stocks are not expected to change, but US exports could increase slightly.
  • US ending stocks for wheat are still pegged at the second tightest in the last decade, wheat price have been unable to find reason to rally but appear to be building support near current prices.
  • Long-term moisture deficits still remain in portions of the US Plains but a continued active pattern should help to gradually ease those deficits.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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2-7 Opening Update: Grains Lower Wednesday Morning

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’24 434 -4.75
JUL ’24 457 -3.5
DEC ’24 474.75 -2.5

Soybeans

MAR ’24 1185.5 -14
JUL ’24 1204.75 -13
NOV ’24 1166.75 -10.75

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’24 592.75 -2.25
JUL ’24 602.5 -3.25
JUL ’25 645.75 0

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’24 617.25 -1.25
JUL ’24 607.75 -1.25
JUL ’25 645.25 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’24 691.75 -1.5
JUL ’24 698 -1.25
SEP ’24 704.5 -0.5

S&P 500

MAR ’24 4972.75 -2

Crude Oil

APR ’24 73.96 0.59

Gold

APR ’24 2048.1 -3.3

  • March corn is lower this morning, down to a new contract low ahead of Thursday’s USDA WASDE report.
  • Chinese corn futures have rallied in the last two weeks and are approaching a $4 per bushel premium to US futures. Brazilian corn values are over $1 per bushel higher than US futures and about 40 cents per bushel higher than US gulf export prices.
  • Estimates for South American production in the WASDE report have Argentinian production higher at 55.8 mb and Brazilian production slightly lower at 124.8 mmt.
  • A frontal system across Argentina is expected to deliver much needed moisture after a two week stretch of dryness and excessive heat. Rainfall in Brazils largest producing regions should be diminishing this week after a wet stretch to allow second crop corn planting to progress along.

  • Soybeans are down sharply this morning giving back much of the early week rally in prices.
  • China is moving aggressively to prop up their equity markets in an attempt to bolster consumer confidence. The strength of the Chinese economy is vital to world soybean demand.
  • Conab, the Brazilian national supply company, is scheduled to release its latest crop estimates Thursday at 9 am local time. A pre-report Bloomberg survey shows analyst expect the estimate to come in just above 150 mmt, this would be down about 5 mmt from their January estimate.
  • The USDA in January pegged the Brazilian soybean crop at 157 mmt. Analysts expect the USDA to make about a 4 mmt cut to the Brazilian soybean estimate in Thursday’s report. Argentina’s soybean crop size is expected to see a slight increase tomorrow from the USDA going from 50 mmt in January up to 50.8 mmt.

  • Wheat is lower across the board this morning following both corn and soybeans.
  • US ending stocks for wheat are still pegged at the second tightest in the last decade, wheat price have been unable to find reason to rally but appear to be building support near current prices.
  • Weather in most of Europe has been mild and dry for a majority of the winter so far. The greatest moisture deficits are appearing in southern Europe and northern Africa. Temperature are expected to continue to be warm with no threat of an artic freeze.
  • Long-term moisture deficits still remain in portions of the US Plains but a continued active pattern should help to gradually ease those deficits.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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2-6 Opening Update: Grains Higher as Short Covering Occurs Ahead of WASDE Report

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’24 442.75 0
JUL ’24 462.75 0.75
DEC ’24 478.5 0.75

Soybeans

MAR ’24 1199.25 3
JUL ’24 1217.25 3
NOV ’24 1177.5 0.75

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’24 591.75 1.5
JUL ’24 604.5 1.25
JUL ’25 643.75 0

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’24 614.5 0.5
JUL ’24 607.75 -0.25
JUL ’25 645.5 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’24 692.25 1.25
JUL ’24 699.25 0.25
SEP ’24 708 1.5

S&P 500

MAR ’24 4958 -4

Crude Oil

APR ’24 73.45 0.6

Gold

APR ’24 2042 -0.9

  • March corn ended the day unchanged yesterday and this morning is trading slightly higher as non-commercials position themselves ahead of Thursday’s WASDE report.
  • Yesterday’s export inspections for corn were on the lowest end of expectations at 24.6 mb but overall, exports are still 30% above last year’s pace.
  • Estimates for South American production in the WASDE report have Argentinian production higher at 55.8 mb and Brazilian production slightly lower at 124.8 mmt.
  • Weather has improved in Brazil, and second crop corn planting in underway with 27% complete in the central region which compares to 11% the previous week.

  • Soybeans finished the day higher yesterday and are higher again this morning following yesterday’s solid export inspections report.
  • So far this morning, soybean meal is lower which could pressure beans but soybean oil is higher with higher crude oil. Crush margins have improved slightly and are attractive to processors.
  • Yesterday’s export inspections were impressive at 52.4 mb with 35.2 mb of that number headed to China. The bearish aspect is that total inspections are still down 24% from last year at this time.
  • The demand for soybean oil in Brazil is expected to rise significantly this year with a 27.5% increase in order to produce more biodiesel. They are expected to crush 7.4 mmt.

  • Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago higher, KC lower, and Minneapolis unchanged despite higher prices in both corn and soybeans.
  • With little fresh news in the wheat complex, futures are struggling to maintain their recent gains and are sliding with a lack of significant export sales.
  • In Texas, the winter wheat crop ratings have improved to 46% good to excellent which is up 2% from the previous week. Crops rated poor to very poor fell to 20% from 26% last week.
  • Shipments of wheat out of Brazil are moving at a good pace with 812.18 thousand tons wheat in January.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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2-5 Opening Update: Grains Trading Slightly Lower to Start the Week

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’24 439.75 -3
JUL ’24 460.5 -2
DEC ’24 475.5 -1.25

Soybeans

MAR ’24 1185.75 -2.75
JUL ’24 1207.25 -1
NOV ’24 1171.25 0.25

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’24 592.25 -7.5
JUL ’24 606.25 -6.75
JUL ’25 650.25 0

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’24 616 -9
JUL ’24 608.5 -8
JUL ’25 648 -6.5

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’24 693.25 -6.5
JUL ’24 701.5 -5.25
SEP ’24 709.5 -5.25

S&P 500

MAR ’24 4974 -6.25

Crude Oil

APR ’24 71.9 -0.4

Gold

APR ’24 2041.2 -12.5

  • Corn is trading lower this morning due to the prospect of large South American production and the state of China’s economy worrying traders about demand.
  • March corn is now just three cents off of its contract low posted last week as non-commercials continue to add to their net short position.
  • The February WASDE report will be released this Thursday, and estimates for Argentinian corn are at 55.8 mmt while Brazil corn is estimated at 124.8 mmt. The Argentinian estimate is higher than the previous month while the Brazil estimate is lower.
  • Last Fridays’ CFTC report showed funds as sellers of 14,866 contracts of corn which leaves them with a very large net short position of 280,151 contracts.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning with pressure from the Brazilian harvest and overall poor export demand. Soybean meal is lower this morning while soybean oil is slightly higher.
  • The Brazilian harvest is now estimated at 16.22% complete for 23/24 which compares to 9.36% at this time last year. The weather in the northern region has turned more favorable for harvest.
  • Estimates for Thursday’s WASDE report have Argentinian soybeans at 50.8 mmt, up slightly from the last estimate, and Brazilian production at 153.7 mmt which is down from last month.
  • Friday’s CFTC report last week showed funds selling 16,405 contracts of soybeans which has increased their net short position to 108,247 contracts.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning but remain relatively rangebound with no change for March Chicago on the week last week.
  • China is reportedly looking to increase the minimum purchasing price of wheat in the country to encourage farmers to grow the grain and also boost yields. This comes as they strive for food independence. 
  • For this week’s USDA report, US ending stocks of wheat are expected to be virtually unchanged while exports may be increased slightly. World ending stocks of wheat are expected to rise very slightly.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed non-commercials as sellers of 277 contracts of Chicago wheat increasing their net short position to 64,818 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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2-2 Opening Update: Grains Trading Higher Following Mixed Trade Yesterday

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’24 448 0.75
JUL ’24 466.5 0.5
DEC ’24 479 0

Soybeans

MAR ’24 1207.5 4.25
JUL ’24 1228 4.25
NOV ’24 1188.5 3

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’24 609.75 8.25
JUL ’24 621 7.25
JUL ’25 649.25 0

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’24 633.75 13
JUL ’24 624.25 10
JUL ’25 656.75 8

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’24 706 10
JUL ’24 717 9.5
SEP ’24 726 9.75

S&P 500

MAR ’24 4961.25 32.75

Crude Oil

APR ’24 73.89 0.1

Gold

APR ’24 2072.6 1.5

  • Corn is trading slightly higher this morning but was lower in the overnight trade. The nearby months are slightly higher while deferred contracts are lower.
  • Despite the bearish tone in the markets recently, March corn is on track for a slight gain on the week as long as it closes in the green today.
  • Yesterday’s export sales report was strong for corn and near the upper range of expectations which has been supportive this week.
  • The USDA’s Crushings and Co-Products report yesterday showed that 481.7 mb of corn was used for ethanol in December which was up 56 mb from a year ago.

  • Soybeans are trading higher to start the day but were slightly lower in overnight trade. Higher soybean meal is supportive while soybean oil is lower.
  • March soybeans are on track for a slight loss on the week while the November contract is on track for a small gain. Poor export sales this week pressured prices.
  • Yesterday’s Fats and Oils report from the USDA showed that total soybean crush for December was 204 mb, 17 mb above this time a year ago and a new monthly record.
  • Yesterday, non-commercials were estimated to have sold 8,000 contracts of soybeans which would have added to their net short position.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning and were mostly higher yesterday as well. Funds are likely short covering as prices more higher.
  • All three wheat classes are on track to post a higher close for the week. Although little fresh news has supported prices, it is nice to see them off their lows.
  • The forecast for world wheat stockpiles was increased slightly to 319.7 mmt from 319.3 mmt. Previously, there had been concerns of a shrinking wheat stockpile.
  • Russia’s grain exports rose by 23% between July 1 and January 31 which is 23% more grain exported than the previous year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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2-1 Opening Update: Grains Lower Overnight on Technical Selling

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’24 443.75 -4.5
JUL ’24 463 -3.5
DEC ’24 477 -3

Soybeans

MAR ’24 1211 -11.25
JUL ’24 1230.75 -11
NOV ’24 1189.75 -10

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’24 588 -7.25
JUL ’24 603 -7.25
JUL ’25 642 -8.5

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’24 615.75 -6.25
JUL ’24 607 -8.5
JUL ’25 650 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’24 690 -2.25
JUL ’24 702.25 -2.25
SEP ’24 711.75 -1.25

S&P 500

MAR ’24 4891.25 20.75

Crude Oil

APR ’24 76.19 0.48

Gold

APR ’24 2047.8 -19.6

  • Corn is trading lower this morning to begin the month despite higher trade on Tuesday and Wednesday. It is possible that the funds were profit taking at the end of January.
  • Yesterday, it was releveled that the US cattle herd has shrunken to the smallest numbers since 1951. This could have an impact on feed demand and pressure corn.
  • Today, the USDA will release its Fats and Oils report for December, and corn used for ethanol is expected to increase year over year by 11.4% to 474.4.
  • Estimates for today’s export sales report in corn is a wide range between 31 and 51 mb. There have been no flash sales reported recently and the number may be on the lower end.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning with pressure from both lower soybean meal and oil. Soybean meal previously had 3 higher closes which helped support soybeans over the past two days.
  • Estimates for December’s Fats and Oils report see the soybean crush at 206.5 mb which would be a 10.2% increase from the previous year and a record high for any month.
  • Brazilian soybean premiums are still relatively low, but did firm up on Wednesday due to a lack of farmer selling. Those low premiums caused buyers in the US to import soybeans from Brazil.
  • Shipments on the Parana River in South America are still halted due to a bulk carrier crashing against a bridge, and this is slowing grain shipments in the country.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning along with both corn and soybeans. Despite higher corn prices yesterday, wheat was not able to post a higher close.
  • Estimates for today’s export sales report are low for wheat and are in a range between 10 and 16 mb. Russia remains the dominant global exporter.  
  • Argentina has benefitted from largely friendly weather so far this season, but recently has had some dryness and heat that could effect their wheat crop.
  • India is also in jeopardy of warmer weather damaging its wheat crop with forecasts for the month of February warmer than normal while rains may be above normal.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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1-31 Opening Update: Grains Lower After Yesterday’s Reversal Higher

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’24 447 -0.75
JUL ’24 466 -1.25
DEC ’24 479.5 -0.75

Soybeans

MAR ’24 1211 -7.75
JUL ’24 1229.75 -6.5
NOV ’24 1191.5 -5.75

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’24 598.25 -7.25
JUL ’24 613 -7.25
JUL ’25 657.25 0

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’24 624.25 -6.5
JUL ’24 614.5 -9
JUL ’25 660 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’24 692.75 -7
JUL ’24 704 -7
SEP ’24 719.5 0

S&P 500

MAR ’24 4928.25 -22.75

Crude Oil

MAR ’24 77.04 -0.78

Gold

APR ’24 2056.5 5.6

  • Corn is back to trading lower after yesterday’s significantly higher prices that attracted sellers looking for rallies. Funds were likely taking part in short covering.
  • Non-commercials bought back roughly 5,500 contracts of corn yesterday, but the previous day they had sold 4,500 contracts. Their net short position is one of the largest held in history.
  • The EIA report will be released today and estimates for ethanol production are seen higher than the previous week at 964k b/d while the stockpile estimate is expected to be lower than a week ago.
  • South Africa is expected to increase corn plantings by 2% which could lead to an increase in production totaling around 15.3 mmt.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning and have given back about half of yesterday’s gains. Both soybean meal and oil are lower this morning with pressure from lower crude oil.
  • On Monday, markets reacted very negatively to the negative news regarding the Chinese economy, but it was likely an overreaction which caused prices to correct yesterday. Given the overall bearish fundamentals, traders were quick to sell the rally.
  • Estimates for Brazil’s 23/24 soybean crop have been lowered to 145.40 mmt compared to 150.7 mmt in the previous estimate according to Agresource, but South America is still set to produce more than the previous year.
  • The USDA December soybean crush is being estimated at 206.1 mb which would be another record for any month ever, and the third month in a row where crush exceeded 200 mb.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning along with corn and soybeans as traders come back in to sell yesterday’s rally.
  • Crop ratings for US winter wheat mostly improved as of January 28 with Kansas rated at 54% good to excellent compared to 43% the week before, but Oklahoma was lowered slightly at 63% vs 67% the previous week.
  • The USDA attaché in Ukraine has increased their export estimates for 23/24 with increased activity on the Black Sea and the Odesa port.
  • Wheat exports out of Brazil are expected to grow by 5.2% compared to the previous year which would mark to highest monthly volume in over a year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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1-30 Opening Update: Grains Lower on Continued Non-Commercial Selling

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’24 437 -3.25
JUL ’24 457.25 -2
DEC ’24 472.75 -1.75

Soybeans

MAR ’24 1193.75 -0.5
JUL ’24 1213.25 -2
NOV ’24 1179.75 -0.5

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’24 584.75 -8.75
JUL ’24 601.25 -8.25
JUL ’25 648.75 0

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’24 612.25 -6
JUL ’24 608 -7.5
JUL ’25 649.25 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’24 690.25 -3
JUL ’24 702 -2.75
SEP ’24 713.5 0

S&P 500

MAR ’24 4949.75 -4.75

Crude Oil

MAR ’24 76.6 -0.18

Gold

APR ’24 2053.6 9

  • Corn is trading lower this morning after yesterday’s selloff, and the March contract took out the low from the 18th making a new contract low. 
  • Funds were estimated to sell about 4,500 contracts of corn yesterday as bearish sentiment continues, and they are nearing a record large short position.
  • The world’s largest corn ethanol producer, Poet, is working with another company that is proposing a large carbon capture and storage project with the goal of cutting biofuel emissions and to capture demand for sustainable aviation fuel.
  • There has been some friendly news for corn with higher crude oil prices supportive to ethanol and larger hog production supportive of feed demand, but funds continue to sell.

  • Soybeans are trading only slightly lower this morning after a large selloff yesterday. Soybean meal is slightly higher again today while soybean oil is lower.
  • As of January 25, Brazil is reportedly 11% complete with harvest which compares to 6% the previous week and 5% the year prior. Corn planting is beginning along with harvest.
  • Shipping has temporarily halted on the Parana River in Brazil after a carrier crashed into a bridge, and this could impact the movement of soybeans as harvest is underway.
  • It has been reported on social media that Brazilian soybeans are being imported into the US as they now have cheaper offers as harvest continues.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning as low export demand continues to weigh on prices. Concerns about the Chinese economy and its demand have not helped wheat.
  • Latvia’s government is looking to ban imports of grain from Russia and Belarus in an attempt to stabilize domestic prices. A previous attempt to do this was unsuccessful.
  • In Argentina, the wheat harvest is reportedly finished with total production estimated at 15.1 mmt. Last season, production was pegged at 12.2 mmt.
  • Russian wheat prices have fallen again due to an increase in supply in the Black Sea region, but exports have risen. The price of 12.5% protein Russian wheat was down $3 per metric ton from the previous week.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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1-29 Opening Update: Grain Complex Lower Following Hit to Chinese Economy

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAR ’24 442.25 -4
JUL ’24 459.5 -4
DEC ’24 473.25 -3

Soybeans

MAR ’24 1200.5 -8.75
JUL ’24 1216.75 -7.25
NOV ’24 1177 -8

Chicago Wheat

MAR ’24 590.25 -10
JUL ’24 605.5 -10.75
JUL ’25 642.5 -12.5

K.C. Wheat

MAR ’24 612.5 -12.25
JUL ’24 610.5 -12.75
JUL ’25 656.5 0

Mpls Wheat

MAR ’24 694.5 -9
JUL ’24 705.25 -7.75
SEP ’24 715 -6

S&P 500

MAR ’24 4920.5 4.25

Crude Oil

MAR ’24 78.13 0.12

Gold

APR ’24 2047.9 11.8

  • Corn was trading in a relatively steady range earlier last night but began selling off around 3am. Economic issues in China were the biggest bearish factor.
  • Overnight, a Hong Kong court ordered the real estate property giant, China Evergrande, to liquidate. The company now owes 300 billion. This news adds fresh concerns about the Chinese economy and their demand.
  • International corn prices have risen recently, but in Brazil they have fallen as a result of anticipation of a large Brazilian and US crop.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds adding to their short position by 4,743 contracts, increasing it to 265,285 contracts. That is the second largest short position in history.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning with pressure from the news out of China along with lower prices in both soybean meal and oil.
  • Overnight, March soybeans reached its lowest price since June of 2023. There is some technical support around $11.85, but after that, the contract low is down at $11.45.
  • In Brazil, 9% of the soybean harvest is reportedly complete which compares to 4.4% at this time last year. Northern Brazil is getting a bit too much rain while Argentina is dry in the short term forecast.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of 15,045 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 91,842 contracts last week.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with KC wheat leading the way lower. Wheat is down with the rest of the grains due to bearish global news.
  • Fighting in the Middle East is escalating after the US said that Iranian backed militants killed three US service members. Retaliation is expected, and shipping companies are expected to stay out of the Red Sea.
  • Argentina has said that China is now open to importing Argentinian wheat for the first time. This comes after Argentina wrapped up harvest with production better than expected at 15.1 mmt.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of 4,034 contracts which reduced their net short position to 64,541 contracts as of last week.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.