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4-9 Opening Update: Grain Complex Trading Slightly Lower With Wheat Leading the Way Down

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAY ’24 434.25 -1.25
JUL ’24 445.75 -1.75
DEC ’24 471.75 -1.25

Soybeans

MAY ’24 1177.25 -4.25
JUL ’24 1190.5 -3.75
NOV ’24 1180.75 -3.5

Chicago Wheat

MAY ’24 558.5 -7.25
JUL ’24 573.25 -7.25
JUL ’25 647 -3.25

K.C. Wheat

MAY ’24 577.5 -7.75
JUL ’24 574.5 -10
JUL ’25 639.5 0

Mpls Wheat

MAY ’24 644 -6.25
JUL ’24 652.5 -6.5
SEP ’24 662.25 -6.25

S&P 500

JUN ’24 5257.5 4.25

Crude Oil

JUN ’24 85.74 0.21

Gold

JUN ’24 2373.7 22.7

  • Corn is trading about a penny lower this morning and is likely being pressured by lower wheat, but the fears and unknowns of the impact of the avian flu is likely still pressuring the corn complex as it could slightly effect feed demand, especially if it becomes prominent in chickens.
  • Yesterday, export inspections were released and were strong with 55.9 mb inspected which brings the pace up 35% from last year. Inspections were large for Mexico and a good amount were headed to China as well.
  • In the US, corn plantings have begun and are 3% complete which is slightly above the 5-year average. Forecasts are also favorable for planting with warm conditions expected over the next two weeks.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning but have remained in a tight range over the past week with multiple closes between the 40 and 50-day moving averages. Soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is just a bit higher.
  • Brazil’s soybean harvest was estimated at 78% complete yesterday by AgRural. This would be below last year’s pace of 82% as some soybeans were planted late, and some work has been delayed due to rain. AgResource has estimated Brazil’s total soybean production at 145.46 mmt, far below the USDA’s estimate.
  • Yesterday’s export inspections for soybeans were soft again which has become the norm with Brazilian offers cheaper. 17.8 mb of soybeans were inspected for export which brings total inspections down 19% from last year.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning and are dragging both corn and soybeans down as well. Over the past few weeks, wheat has trended higher as there has been a rally in global wheat prices.
  • In India, wheat production is expected to rise to 105.8 mmt in 23/24 from 102.9 mmt the previous year due to increased planted acreage and better yields. India will need to buy 31 mmt of this crop for its state reserves.
  • Yesterday’s export inspections for wheat were stronger than usual with 18.3 mb inspected which met the 18.2 mb needed each week. Some of that wheat is headed to China which is supportive.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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4-8 Opening Update: Grain Complex Trading Quietly to Start the Week

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAY ’24 433.75 -0.5
JUL ’24 445.5 -1.25
DEC ’24 471.5 -1

Soybeans

MAY ’24 1186.25 1.25
JUL ’24 1197.75 1
NOV ’24 1184.25 -0.5

Chicago Wheat

MAY ’24 565.5 -1.75
JUL ’24 580.5 -1.25
JUL ’25 649 0.25

K.C. Wheat

MAY ’24 587.5 5.25
JUL ’24 584.25 4.75
JUL ’25 633.25 0

Mpls Wheat

MAY ’24 648.75 0.75
JUL ’24 658 1.5
SEP ’24 666.5 0.25

S&P 500

JUN ’24 5253.5 0.5

Crude Oil

JUN ’24 85.48 -0.62

Gold

JUN ’24 2358.3 12.9

  • Corn is trading slightly lower this morning in quiet trade with the May contract still rangebound and hovering right near the 40-day moving average. The spread of bird flu in dairy cattle has traders a bit weary on the possibilities of changing feed demand.
  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has cut its estimate for corn production by 2 mmt citing disease in parts of the crop caused by bacteria carrying insects. Production is now expected at 52 mmt and the crop is reportedly 11.1% harvested.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of corn by 7,826 contracts which increased their net short position to 259,556 contracts.

  • Soybeans are mixed this morning with the front months slightly higher and the November contract lower. There is currently negative carry from the front month into new crop, and this is not helped by the prospect of increased planted acreage this year.
  • Soybean oil has been following the moves in palm oil closely, and it has moved lower over the past three days as prices correct. Soybean meal is higher this morning, but there may be pressure when Argentina gets its harvest further underway.
  • Friday’s CFTC report said that as of April 2, funds sold 3,476 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 138,256 contracts. Between corn, soybeans, meal, bean oil, and wheat, funds are short 593,000 contracts which is the largest in years.

  • Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago wheat slightly lower, but KC and Minneapolis wheat higher. Overall, trade in the grain complex is quiet to begin the week. Chicago wheat has been in a steady uptrend since its March lows as Russian export prices have firmed.
  • Last week, it was reported that Russia was having problems with poor quality wheat which had importers complaining and caused Russia to halt as many as 500,000 mt of loaded wheat shipments.
  • On Friday’s CFTC report, funds reportedly bought back 158 contracts of Chicago wheat which reduced their net short position to 91,944 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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4-5 Opening Update: Grain Complex Higher Friday Morning

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAY ’24 438.25 3
JUL ’24 450.75 3.25
DEC ’24 476.25 3
Soybeans
MAY ’24 1182.25 2.25
JUL ’24 1194.25 2
NOV ’24 1185 1.25
Chicago Wheat
MAY ’24 573.25 17
JUL ’24 587.25 15.75
JUL ’25 655 10
K.C. Wheat
MAY ’24 586.75 9.25
JUL ’24 582.75 9.75
JUL ’25 632.25 2.75
Mpls Wheat
MAY ’24 653.25 7
JUL ’24 661.75 7
SEP ’24 671.25 6.75
S&P 500
JUN ’24 5213 15.75
Crude Oil
JUN ’24 85.91 0.1
Gold
JUN ’24 2312 3.5

  • Corn is trading higher this morning as prices try to battle back after a poor start to the week. Export sales reported yesterday for corn were near the lower end of expectations, but export shipments posted a new marketing-year high. 
  • US corn exports in February were strong at 211 million bushels, up 64% from last February and 14% above the 5-year average. 
  • Extended outlooks into late April appear promising for US corn planting to make strong early progress after the last few weeks of wet weather. 

  • Soybeans are trading slightly higher this morning along with the rest of the grain complex as prices try to build some strength into the end of the week. 
  • Palm oil futures retreated Friday on suspected profit-taking after trading to new contract highs earlier this week. 
  • Soybean harvest is just underway in Argentina but showers this weekend and into next week will likely hinder early harvest progress but help to finish late maturing crops.

  • All three wheat classes are higher this morning with front month Chicago wheat testing the 50-day moving average. Front Month Continuous Chicago wheat has not closed above the 50-day since late January.  
  • After a dry March, temperatures will continue to be very warm across much of the Black Sea region into mid-April, this will have a negative effect on winter crop development. 
  • Ukraine fired more than 40 drones into Russia’s bordering Rostov region according to a Moscow defense official on Friday. The attack appears to be one of the biggest air offensives of the war and reportedly damaged a power substation. 

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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4-4 Opening Update: Grain Complex Higher Again After Yesterday’s Recovery

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAY ’24 433 1.25
JUL ’24 445.75 0.75
DEC ’24 471.5 0.25
Soybeans
MAY ’24 1183.5 1.25
JUL ’24 1196 0.75
NOV ’24 1185.5 0.75
Chicago Wheat
MAY ’24 557 1
JUL ’24 572.75 0.5
JUL ’25 643 -2.25
K.C. Wheat
MAY ’24 585 4.5
JUL ’24 576.25 4.25
JUL ’25 632.25 2.5
Mpls Wheat
MAY ’24 647 7.5
JUL ’24 655 7.25
SEP ’24 664 6.25
S&P 500
JUN ’24 5284.25 17.75
Crude Oil
JUN ’24 84.64 0.03
Gold
JUN ’24 2313.2 -1.8

  • Corn is trading slightly higher this morning after a higher close yesterday. Prices are trying to recover from concerns over feed demand related to the avian flu, and an uptick in farmer selling after last week’s friendly report.
  • US ethanol stocks rose by 1.2% to 26.416m bbl according to the Department of Energy’s ethanol report yesterday, and plant production came in at 1.073m b/d which was above the survey average of 1.046m.
  • In South America, both Argentina and Brazil are expecting widespread rains which will slow the soybean harvest but will benefit the second crop corn. Northern Argentina may experience some flooding, but Brazil is expected to be warm and wet over the next 10 days. 

  • Soybeans are trading slightly higher this morning along with the rest of the grain complex as it attempts to recover from the 5-day sell off, but May futures have hovered between the 40 and 50-day moving averages. Soybean meal is higher while soybean oil is slightly lower.
  • While last Thursday’s report was within trade expectations in both the stocks and acreage, 2 more million acres of soybeans are expected to be planted which is not particularly friendly considering that export demand is already low.
  • Palm oil has been the driver of higher soybean oil which in turn has supported soybeans, and Malaysian palm oil reserves were seen at an 8-month low on strong exports which shows the strong recent demand for veg oils.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning after a strong showing yesterday which saw Chicago wheat up 11 cents. Part of that strength could come from meteorologists maintaining that weather for world wheat production has not been favorable.
  • Meteorologist John Barnick has said that the US Southern Plains have been too dry, that parts of western Europe have been too wet, and that the Black Sea region has been too warm and dry, not to mention at war.
  • Today’s expectations for wheat in the export sales report are low with the trade range between sales reductions of 100k tons and sales of 400k tons. Last week, 339.6k tons were reported as sold.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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4-3 Opening Update: Grains Green After Early Week Washout

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAY ’24 428.5 2
JUL ’24 443.25 2.25
DEC ’24 470 2
Soybeans
MAY ’24 1177 3
JUL ’24 1190.5 2.75
NOV ’24 1178.75 1.75
Chicago Wheat
MAY ’24 549.75 4.5
JUL ’24 566.5 4.75
JUL ’25 639 1.25
K.C. Wheat
MAY ’24 571.25 8
JUL ’24 564.75 7.25
JUL ’25 618.5 0
Mpls Wheat
MAY ’24 633.25 5.75
JUL ’24 643 6
SEP ’24 653.5 6
S&P 500
JUN ’24 5254.5 -6
Crude Oil
JUN ’24 84.97 0.75
Gold
JUN ’24 2292.6 10.8

  • Corn futures are a few cents higher this morning after sharply lower closes both Monday and Tuesday have May futures right back near the same price level traded prior to last Thursday’s friendly USDA report. 
  • The latest weather model runs are showing a wetter than normal pattern into mid-April across large portions of Brazil, these rains will be highly beneficial to second crop corn acres in central Brazil.
  • The USDA’s Brazil attache reduced Brazil’s total 23/24 corn crop to 122 mmt from 130 mmt projected back in November this week, this compares to the USDA’s March WASDE estimate at 124 mmt. 
  • Warmer and wetter than normal conditions are expected for most of the southern Corn Belt into mid-April, while the moisture may stymie early planting progress it will be welcomed by many to enhance subsoil moisture levels ahead of the growing season.  

  • Like corn, soybean futures are a couple cents higher this morning after experiencing lower prices both Monday and Tuesday. 
  • May Palm Oil futures made a new recent high Wednesday morning, the recent rally in world veg oils, soybean oil included, has been a helpful force in rallying soybean futures off of their late February lows. 
  • May Chinese soybean futures were higher to start the week posting their highest close since January 17th. 
  • Soybean harvest is nearing the finish line in Brazil but has yet to get underway in Argentina according to progress reports late last week. In their latest rating, the Buenos Aries Grain Exchange pegged Argentina’s soybean crop at 79% fair to excellent. 

  • Like corn, soybean futures are a couple cents higher this morning after experiencing lower prices both Monday and Tuesday. 
  • May Palm Oil futures made a new recent high Wednesday morning, the recent rally in world veg oils, soybean oil included, has been a helpful force in rallying soybean futures off of their late February lows. 
  • May Chinese soybean futures were higher to start the week posting their highest close since January 17th. 
  • Soybean harvest is nearing the finish line in Brazil but has yet to get underway in Argentina according to progress reports late last week. In their latest rating, the Buenos Aries Grain Exchange pegged Argentina’s soybean crop at 79% fair to excellent. 

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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4-2 Opening Update: Grains Mixed With Corn Unchanged, Soybeans Higher After Yesterday’s Selloff

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAY ’24 435.5 0
JUL ’24 449.25 0
DEC ’24 474.75 0
Soybeans
MAY ’24 1186.75 1
JUL ’24 1200.75 1.25
NOV ’24 1183.5 1
Chicago Wheat
MAY ’24 555.5 -1.5
JUL ’24 571.25 -1.5
JUL ’25 640.75 0
K.C. Wheat
MAY ’24 573 -2.5
JUL ’24 567.75 -3.25
JUL ’25 626 0
Mpls Wheat
MAY ’24 637 2.25
JUL ’24 646.75 2.25
SEP ’24 657.5 3.75
S&P 500
JUN ’24 5279 -16.25
Crude Oil
JUN ’24 84.11 1.29
Gold
JUN ’24 2276.9 19.8

  • Corn is trading unchanged to slightly lower this morning after losing just over 6 cents yesterday in the May contract. These losses have wiped out half of the gains from Thursday’s report, and May futures have fallen back to the 40-day moving average.
  • Yesterday afternoon, the USDA Grain Crushings report was released and showed a record high February ethanol grind. They also revised the January grind higher, and this points to potentially higher numbers on the April report than expected.
  • Yesterday’s lower prices were likely linked to the extremely sharp selloff in the cattle complex which is likely a result of the concerns and unknowns of the avian flu infections impacting feed demand.

  • Soybeans are trading unchanged to slightly higher this morning but have trended lower since the March high was posted on the 21st. May futures are sandwiched between the 40 and 50-day moving averages.
  • Yesterday afternoon, the Fats and Oils report was released and saw a new record for February soybean crush at 196.4 mb. This was slightly lower than the average trade guess, but crush the month of February is up 5.4% so far.
  • Soybean oil is higher again this morning, up by about 1% thanks to more gains in palm oil and higher demand in general for veg oils. Soybean meal is trading lower continuing its trend.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower to unchanged this morning with KC wheat again posting the largest losses. May Chicago wheat remains about 30 cents off of the contract lows in March but has been mostly rangebound on lack of news.
  • Yesterday, export inspections for wheat came in at 499k tons which was above the highest range of trade guesses and was about the 433k tons the previous week. China was the main purchaser of wheat. Total wheat inspections are now down 12% from the previous year.
  • India is expected to need to import wheat in the 24/25 marketing year despite expectations of a record harvest. This is due to a decline in government stockpiles and low prices globally. This would be the first time that India imported wheat since 2017.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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4-1 Opening Update: Corn and Wheat Lower, Soybeans Higher After Holiday Weekend

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn
MAY ’24 439.75 -2.25
JUL ’24 452.75 -1.75
DEC ’24 476.5 -1.25
Soybeans
MAY ’24 1196.25 4.75
JUL ’24 1209.25 4
NOV ’24 1189.25 3
Chicago Wheat
MAY ’24 553.75 -6.5
JUL ’24 568.75 -7
JUL ’25 638.25 -2.5
K.C. Wheat
MAY ’24 572.25 -13
JUL ’24 567.25 -12.5
JUL ’25 621.5 -7.75
Mpls Wheat
MAY ’24 638.5 -6.5
JUL ’24 647.75 -5.25
SEP ’24 656.75 -4.25
S&P 500
JUN ’24 5324.25 15.75
Crude Oil
JUN ’24 82.28 -0.14
Gold
JUN ’24 2269.6 31.2

  • Corn is retreating slightly this morning after big gains on Thursday following the release of the quarterly stocks and acreage report which saw the USDA estimate planted corn acres at just 90.0 million acres for 2024 which was well below expectations.
  • While Thursday’s report was bullish for corn, the decline in acreage would only represent a loss of 360 mb of corn and would likely leave ending stocks above 2 billion bushels. The other thing to consider is the unaccounted 6 million acres used for crops that could be found during the growing season.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds increasing their net short position as of March 26. They were sellers of 8,742 contracts of corn which brought their total short position to 251,730. A portion of that position was likely bought back on Friday.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning after volatile trade on Thursday which ultimately saw soybeans close just a penny lower. This morning’s higher prices are a reflection of higher soybean meal as the palm oil market moves higher.
  • Thursday’s USDA report ended up being well within trade expectations for soybeans and held no real surprises. Planting intentions were up from last year at 86.5 million acres with stocks expected higher as well.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of soybeans as of March 26. They bought back 13,559 contracts of soybeans which decreased their net short position to 134,780 contracts.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with KC wheat leading the way down. Futures were higher after Thursday’s report with the USDA showing lower winter wheat acreage but higher than expected spring wheat acres.
  • Ukrainian exports of grains have fallen by 7.5% year over year at 34.6 mmt. 13.7 mmt of wheat have been exported including 1.9 mmt so far in March.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of both Chicago and KC wheat. They sold 11.532 contracts of Chicago wheat increasing their net short position to 92,102 contracts. In KC wheat, they sold 4,781 contracts increasing their short position to 42,638 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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3-28 Opening Update: Soybeans Lower, Corn and Wheat Higher Ahead of USDA Report

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAY ’24 427.5 0.75
JUL ’24 440 0.75
DEC ’24 462.25 0

Soybeans

MAY ’24 1188.25 -4.25
JUL ’24 1202.5 -4
NOV ’24 1179.75 -3.75

Chicago Wheat

MAY ’24 548.25 0.75
JUL ’24 564 1.25
JUL ’25 637.25 1.25

K.C. Wheat

MAY ’24 579.5 1.25
JUL ’24 574.5 0.5
JUL ’25 625 0

Mpls Wheat

MAY ’24 651 0
JUL ’24 656.75 -0.5
SEP ’24 665.25 0.75

S&P 500

JUN ’24 5306 -2.25

Crude Oil

MAY ’24 82.49 1.14

Gold

JUN ’24 2233.7 21

  • Corn is trading slightly higher to unchanged this morning with a very narrow range in the overnight movement as traders await the results of today’s quarterly stocks and acreage report at 11am central. 
  • Yesterday’s ethanol production report showed an increase in production to 1.54 million barrels per day which was the highest week recorded for the third week in March.
  • Estimates for today’s report average around 92 million acres of planted corn which would be 2 mmt fewer than the previous year. Corn stocks are expected to come in at 8.45 billion bushels which would be higher than last year.

  • Soybeans are trading lower for the third consecutive day but still remain just above support at the 50-day moving average. Traders are likely factoring in the early estimates for higher planted soybean acres. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower.
  • Yesterday, Brazilian consultancy firm Agroconsult increased their estimates for total soybean production to 156.5 mmt which is much closer to the USDA’s estimate of 157 mmt and lends doubt to CONAB’s low estimate of 149 mmt.
  • Estimates for today’s Quarterly Stocks and Acreage report show planted soybean acres at 86.3 million acres which would be up 3 ma from the previous year. Soybean stocks are estimated at 1.83 billion bushels.

  • Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago and KC wheat trading slightly higher but Minn wheat trading unchanged to slightly lower. Chicago wheat has been relatively rangebound and has hovered around the 21-day moving average.
  • Estimates for today’s USDA report show total acreage at 49.6 million acres which is lower than last year, and wheat stocks are expected around 1.053 bb which reflects the sore lack of export sales this marketing year.
  • In the EU, the production for the 24/25 wheat crop is expected to fall by 4% year over year at 120.8 million tons, down 5 mmt from the previous year.  

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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3-27 Opening Update: Grains Trading Lower for Second Consecutive Day After Reports of Avian Flu

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAY ’24 427.75 -4.75
JUL ’24 440.25 -4.75
DEC ’24 463.25 -4.75

Soybeans

MAY ’24 1193 -6
JUL ’24 1206.75 -5.75
NOV ’24 1186 -5

Chicago Wheat

MAY ’24 540.75 -2.75
JUL ’24 557 -2.25
JUL ’25 634.5 -1

K.C. Wheat

MAY ’24 573 -4.25
JUL ’24 569.25 -4.75
JUL ’25 623 -3.25

Mpls Wheat

MAY ’24 645.5 -1.75
JUL ’24 653.25 -0.25
SEP ’24 661.5 0

S&P 500

JUN ’24 5286.75 21.5

Crude Oil

MAY ’24 81.15 -0.47

Gold

JUN ’24 2216.4 17.2

  • Corn is trading lower again today after reports were released yesterday that avian flu was detected in dairy cattle in Texas, Kansas, and New Mexico. Cattle futures fell sharply and concerns regarding corn demand arose.
  • There has been significant rainfall this week in the eastern Corn Belt which has improved soil moisture levels and is a good start ahead of planting season.
  • Total production for Brazil’s corn crop is now seen at 119.1 mmt compared to 121.5 mmt in the previous estimate. There have been beneficial rains falling in the key growing state of Mato Grosso, but soil moisture in many areas is reportedly too low.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning but remain slightly above the 50-day moving average. Pressure is coming from lower palm oil which has brought soybean oil lower, but meal is trading slightly lower as well.
  • Tomorrow, the USDA will release its Quarterly Stocks and Acreage report, and estimates are calling for an increase in planted acreage by 2 million acres to 85.35 ma. Stocks are expected to increase from a year ago to 1.828 billion bushels.
  • Export of Brazilian soybeans are seen at 13.39 mmt in March which compares to the estimate of 14.01 mmt last week. Export sales in the US have been slow as Brazil maintains the competitive advantage.

  • All three wheat class are trading slightly lower this morning after closing significantly lower yesterday and failing at the 6-dollar level at the beginning of the week.
  • Temperatures in winter wheat areas fell into the low teens yesterday, but this occurred after crop ratings were already reported. In Kansas, the poor to very poor rating was applied to 13% of the crop which is nothing compared to last year’s 52% at this time.
  • Tomorrow’s USDA report is expected to show total wheat plantings at 47.7 million acres for 24/25 with 35.1 ma of winter wheat, 10.9 ma of spring wheat, and 1.7 ma of durum. Wheat stocks are expected to be higher than a year ago.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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3-26 Opening Update: Grains Lower to Start the Day with Prices Rangebound

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

MAY ’24 437.5 -0.25
JUL ’24 450.25 -1
DEC ’24 473.75 -1

Soybeans

MAY ’24 1203.5 -5.75
JUL ’24 1216.5 -5.25
NOV ’24 1193.5 -5.25

Chicago Wheat

MAY ’24 554.5 -0.5
JUL ’24 570.25 -0.5
JUL ’25 640.5 0

K.C. Wheat

MAY ’24 584 -5.5
JUL ’24 580 -5.5
JUL ’25 630 -4

Mpls Wheat

MAY ’24 656.5 -3
JUL ’24 661.25 -3
SEP ’24 669 -2.5

S&P 500

JUN ’24 5298 19.75

Crude Oil

MAY ’24 82.06 0.11

Gold

JUN ’24 2218.9 20.7

  • Corn is trading slightly lower this morning after yesterday’s slight loss. Yesterday’s export inspections were in line with expectations and total inspections are 33.5% ahead of last year, but traders would like to see more grain shipped to China.
  • The Stocks and Acreage report will be released on Thursday, and early estimates have corn acres falling by 2.6 million acres and total planted acres estimated at 92.03 million acres. Corn stocks are estimated at 8.44 bb which would be 1.04 bb higher than the previous year.
  • Last night, the Francis Scott Key bridge in Baltimore was struck by a container ship and collapsed. There were many casualties, and the incident is also expected to disrupt shipping.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning after a strong move higher yesterday that was led by soybean and palm oil. Currently, both soybean meal and oil are trading lower but have trended higher over the past month.
  • Yesterday’s export inspections were also within expectations and came in at 28.2 mb which was above last week, but total inspections are down 18.7% from last year as South America gets the bulk of business.
  • Brazil’s soybean harvest is now called at 70% complete with key growing state of Mato Grosso reportedly complete. Brazil’s second crop corn plantings are completed now, and there is a slight concern for hot and dry weather.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with KC wheat leading the way lower. Yesterday’s export inspections were on the low side at 11.6 mb, and no wheat was reported to China.
  • Crop ratings for US winter wheat have been updated and have improved overall. In Kansas, the good to excellent rating fell to 53% from 55% last week, but Oklahoma improved by 9% to 70%, and Texas improved by 5% to 51%.
  • In Brazil, trade has been slow in the wheat market with prices sliding lower. High quality wheat in Brazil has reportedly been hard to come by, and buyers have turned to Argentina which is abundant in high quality wheat and also cheaper than Brazil.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.