Corn is trading lower this morning after two consecutive days of higher trade following a mostly neutral WASDE report. Both July and December corn are trading back above their 100-day moving averages.
With the WASDE report out of the way, trade is now looking to weather which is expected to be hot and dry this month. Many fields need to dry out following last month’s excessive rains, but if heat and dryness continues into July and August, yields could be impacted.
Yesterday morning, CONAB estimated the Brazilian corn crop at 114.1 mmt. Analysts were expecting a number closer to 112 mmt, but both guesses are well below the USDA’s recent guess of 122 mmt.
Soybeans are trading lower this morning as well with pressure from both soybean meal and oil. Wednesday’s WASDE report did not offer much support, and soybeans have typically been planted at a good pace and in good conditions.
The NOPA May US soybean crush is expected to come in at 178.352 million bushels. If realized, this would be up 5.3% from April’s crush of 169.436 mb. It would also be the largest May crush on record. With export demand poor, crush demand is helping support futures.
Yesterday morning, CONAB estimated the Brazilian soybean crop at 147.354 mmt which compares to the USDA’s estimate on Wednesday of 153 mmt. At some point, these estimates will need to converge, and the USDA is likely a bit too high.
All three classes of wheat are trading slightly lower this morning. Unlike corn and soybeans, the WASDE report was relatively friendly for wheat with lower world production, but that may have been priced in with the rally in May.
While Russia and Ukraine have had their wheat production estimates lowered, Australia has finally caught a break with weather and has had its production estimates revised higher thanks to recent rainfall. Planted acreage in Australia has risen as well.
In China, there is a drought ongoing and forecast to continue which could impact both the corn and wheat crops. Production is expected to fall particularly in northern China. This could force China to import more US grains.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher this morning despite yesterday’s WASDE report that was relatively neutral, but ongoing rains in the forecast for the northwest Corn Belt may be adding some bullish momentum.
In yesterday’s report, trade was expecting the USDA to revise ending stocks a bit lower due to increased exports and ethanol grind, but it was left unchanged. In addition, it was expected that the Argentinian corn crop would be revised lower due to the recent disease, but that stayed the same at 53 mmt.
In Mexico, there is a drought expected which could damaged their 2024 corn production again. They are expected to produce 25.25 mmt of corn, but could be forced to import more from the US depending on the damage done.
Soybeans are essentially unchanged to start the day. As in corn, yesterday’s WASDE report was neutral to slightly bearish, but prices slid in accordance. Soybean meal is trading higher this morning while soybean oil is lower.
In yesterday’s report, US soybean ending stocks were increased by 10 mb to 455 mb as a result of a decline in crush demand. US old crop ending stocks were increased as well by 10 mb, but world ending stocks were slightly lowered.
As far as South American production goes, trade was looking for a decrease and got one although it was very small. Brazilian soybean production was only lowered by 1 mmt to 153 mmt. CONAB will release its estimate this morning, but the USDA is likely still way above their number, and is likely too high considering the recent flooding that destroyed over 2 mmt of soybeans.
All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with Chicago wheat leading the way higher. KC wheat is struggling to move higher due to ongoing harvest pressure.
Yesterday’s WASDE report was supportive as the USDA confirmed that due to the dry weather in Russia and Ukraine, wheat production has been revised lower. The USDA took 5 mmt off Russian production and 1.5 mmt off Ukrainian production. Total world production fell by 7.4 mmt.
US wheat ending stocks were lowered for 24/25 to 758 mb from 766 mb, but old crop ending stocks were unchanged. Production estimates for the US were slightly increased, but overall, world ending stocks fell due to global weather issues.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly higher this morning as weather and today’s WASDE will likely direct upcoming market direction.
Above normal temperatures across the Corn Belt with less opportunities for moisture, especially in the eastern Corn Belt are forecast into the end of the month.
Expectations for today’s WASDE report are for old crop US ending stocks to fall by 38 mb to 1.98 bb, likely due in combination of higher exports and corn for ethanol usage. New crop ending stocks are expected to move slightly lower to 2.05 bb.
Soybeans are trading higher this morning after yesterday’s drop as prices continue their recent sideways chop.
South American soybean crop size estimates will be closely watched in today’s WASDE report. Expectations are for Brazilian soybean production to drop 2.2 mmt to 151.8 mmt. Argentine soybean production is expected to come in slightly lower at 49.8 mmt.
US old crop soybean ending stocks are expected to rise by 8 mb to 348 mb. New crop ending stocks are expected to rise by 10 mb to 455 mb.
Wheat is lower this morning following yesterday’s higher closes. Early discussion around yields in the US have been mostly as good or better than expected.
Expectations for today’s WASDE report are for ending stocks to rise slightly for both old and new crop US wheat.
World ending stocks are expected to fall slightly for both old and new crop wheat from their May estimates. Russian, Ukraine and European wheat crop size estimates will all be watched closely by the trade.
Russia on Tuesday issued a state of emergency in the Rostov region due to frosts and drought, this is the largest grain producing region in Russia. Earlier in the day the head of Russia’s grain union said up to 30% of winter grain had been hit by May frosts.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly higher this morning as prices continue to consolidate over the past few days and hover around the 40 and 50-day moving averages in the July contract. December futures are recovering from last week’s selloff but are still below the 100-day moving average.
Yesterday’s crop progress report results did not come as much of a surprise with 95% of the crop reported as planted which was just under the trade estimate of 96%. Plantings were at 91% a week ago and 98% a year ago.
According to the USDA, 85% of the corn crop is emerged which compares to 74% a week ago and 91% a year ago. 74% of the crop was rated good to excellent which was on par with trade estimates but is down one point from a week ago. A year ago, this rating was at 61%.
Soybeans are trading lower this morning and are giving back some of yesterday’s gains. Prices remain in a consolidating pattern starting about a week ago which followed the selloff in grains. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower this morning.
Yesterday’s crop progress report said that 87% of the soybean crop has been planted which was below the trade estimate of 89% but compares to 78% a week ago and 95% a year ago. The upcoming dry weather should help get things wrapped up.
70% of the soybean crop is emerged which compares to 55% a week ago and 83% a year ago. The USDA has released its first crop ratings for soybeans and pegged them at 72% good to excellent which was in line with trade estimates and compares to 59% a year ago.
Wheat is mixed this morning with both Chicago and Minneapolis wheat trading higher while KC wheat is lower. The US wheat harvest is ahead of the average pace, but large speculative selling is likely putting most of the pressure on the market.
The spring wheat crop is completely planted and now 87% emerged which compares to 78% a week ago and 86% a year ago. 72% of the crop is rated good to excellent which is a 2 point drop from last week but compares to 60% a year.
The winter wheat crop has been rated 47% good to excellent which was slightly below the average trade guess of 49% as well as 49% a week ago, but was rated 38% a year ago. 89% of the crop is headed, and 12% is harvested which compares to 7% a year ago.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly higher this morning as prices recover from last week’s heavy selling pressure. The recent decline in prices has caused basis levels to narrow and has also caused the July/September spread to tighten.
The weather forecast for Corn Belt has turned to mostly dry for at least the next 1o days which should be a relief to many fields which have been saturated, but if the dryness continues for too long, it could turn into another problem.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds selling a large amount of corn as of June 4th. They sold 79,229 contracts which left them net short 212,706 contracts.
Soybeans are trading a bit higher to start the week and are bull spread with the majority of gains in the front month. The July contract seems to have found some recent support at the $11.75 level, but prices are now only 43 cents off of the contract low in February. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher as well.
Due to inaccuracies in reporting, NOPA revised its April soybean crush in the US up to 169.436 million bushels from 166.034 mb. Despite the increase, it was still the lowest monthly crush since September.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as aggressive sellers in the soy complex adding 45,523 contracts to their short position as of June 4. This leaves them net short 59,741 contracts.
All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with KC wheat leading the way lower. This comes despite higher corn and soybeans which indicates that traders are still taking advantage of the recent overbought conditions and producers are still making cash sales.
Russia has sent its first shipment of wheat to Brazil from the port of Vystotsky in the Leningrad region at the beginning of June. The shipment was reportedly 31,000 tonnes of wheat and was the first shipment from the Russian Baltic Sea port. Argentina was the largest exporter of wheat to Brazil in 2023.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of 6,253 contracts of wheat as of June 4. This increased their net short position to 31,684 contracts. This remains above their net short position that was nearing 100,000 contracts in the end of April.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly lower this morning after yesterday’s run higher and is hovering right at the 100-day moving average having trouble breaking above it solidly.
Yesterday’s strength came from short covering by the funds who were estimated to buy back approximately 10,000 contracts yesterday after being heavy sellers the 7 previous days. It also came from good export sales numbers which were on the high end of expectations. Lower wheat today is likely dragging corn lower.
In Argentina, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has released a weekly crop report in which corn production was left unchanged at 46.5 mmt, but harvest has reportedly advanced from 30.1% complete last week to 35.1% complete.
Soybeans are trading lower this morning after a nearly 23 cent gain in the July contract yesterday, and futures are struggling to break through their 100-day moving average at $12.00. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower as well.
Part of yesterday’s strength in soybeans was related to potential changes in Brazil’s tax code that could make Brazilian exports more expensive and could boost US exports, but the tax code has not passed yet and needs to be approved by Congress.
In Argentina, the soybean crop production estimates were unchanged by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange at 50.5 mmt, but harvest progress was increased from 86% to 92.2%.
All three wheat classes are trading lower today and are being led by KC wheat. Wheat did not follow corn and soybeans higher yesterday and are now on track for their eighth consecutively lower close.
In Argentina, planting has been off at a good pace thanks to the dry weather with nearly 26% of the planted acres completed. Estimates for the 24/25 wheat crop are unchanged at 6.2 mmt.
World wheat stockpiles are expected to fall by 1.6% in 24.25 totaling 306.8 mmt. There is potential for production to fall in the EU, Turkey, the UK, and Ukraine. On the other hand, the US, India, and Australia are expected to have above normal production.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher this morning as prices begin to reverse from steady selling pressure throughout the week. Funds were estimated to have sold an additional 5,500 contracts yesterday, but futures are now too oversold.
Yesterday’s ethanol report is supportive and likely a partial reason for the turnaround today as it reported that 1.079 million barrels were produced per day which is the largest in history for this week out of the year.
Estimates for today’s export sales report have corn exports between 700k and 1,400k tons with an average guess of 1,015k. This would compare to last week’s 998k tons.
Soybeans are trading higher this morning thanks to support from higher soybean meal and oil. Palm oil prices are currently driving soybean oil higher as futures are correcting from a sharp two day sell off.
Brazilian soybean exports are expected to reach 12.08 mmt in June which would compare with 13.84 mmt in the same period a year ago. Exports of soybean meal are expected to drop slightly as well.
Soybean meal may yet see some support as Brazil’s heavily flooded Rio Grande do Sul caused large losses in production that may have otherwise be exported to Argentina to be crushed.
All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning but July Chicago wheat is still nearly 70 cents off the contract high that was posted last week. There was likely profit taking from funds last week combined with farmer selling.
In Russia, SovEcon has lowered its estimate for wheat production again to 80.7 mmt from a previous estimate of 82.1 mmt citing lower yield potential as a result of the May frosts and delays of spring wheat planting in Siberia.
Estimates for today’s export sales report in wheat are between 100k and 600k tons with an average guess of 328k tons. This would compare with 321k tons last week.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly lower this morning in what would make a seventh consecutively lower close as funds continue to pile back into their short positions.
Yesterday, funds were estimated to have sold 1,500 contracts of corn. On Monday, it was estimated that they sold 9,000 contracts, and 10,000 contracts the Friday before. Summer weather will be the next important factor that trade will look to.
In South America, weather is expected to intensify throughout the rest of the second crop corn development with warm temperatures forecast for Argentina, and hot and dry conditions for Brazil which could intensify the drought in the western Central region.
Soybeans are mixed this morning with the front months trading slightly higher while new crop is unchanged. Trade is likely expecting plenty of soybean supplies incoming. Soybean meal is trading higher while soybean oil is lower.
There have been some rumors that corn acres that have been too wet may switch to soybeans, but with prices of both corn and soybeans below many producers’ break evens, there is a chance that some will take Prevent Plant.
Funds are estimated to have been adding to their short position for at least the past five days and are expected to have sold an additional 27,250 contracts in that time frame. This will be confirmed in Monday’s commitment of traders report.
Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago and Minneapolis trading higher but KC slightly lower. Prices have reacted to US winter wheat conditions which are much better than last year, and a speedy planting progress for spring wheat. The market has temporarily shrugged off concerns over Russian weather.
In Australia, consultancy ABARES has forecast the 24/25 winter wheat crop production at 51.3 mmt which would be a 10% increase year over year if realized. This would be due to an increase in acres and yields and would be their 6th largest winter wheat crop.
In India, their wheat output is expected to rise to 112.9 mmt which would compare to 110.6 mmt last year. In Addition, Russia is not revising their production much lower, so global weather concerns may be fading.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower again this morning and is on track for a sixth consecutively lower close if prices do not recover. Pressure is coming from yesterday’s USDA data that showed another jump in planting progress.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress Report showed that 91% of the corn crop is planted which compares to 83% last week and the 5-year average of 89%. 75% of the crop is emerged which compares with 58% a week ago and the average of 73%.
While planting progress is acting as a bearish factor, a closer look at the numbers will show that 91% of the crop planted as of May 31 is actually one of the slowest paces in history which is closer to 2022 and 2011 but beats 2019. 2019 and 2022 are both included in the 5-year average we are comparing to.
The USDA gave its first impression on crop ratings giving corn a good to excellent rating of 75% which compares to the trade guess of 70% and 64% a year ago.
Soybeans are trading lower again today as the downward slide continues pressured by South America’s harvest and the seemingly good planting conditions in the US. Soybeans meal is trading higher this morning while soybean oil is slightly lower.
Yesterday’s crop progress report said that 78% of the soybean crop has been planted which compares to the trade guess of 80%, 68% a week ago, and the 5-year average of 73%. The crop is 55% emerged which compares to 39% a week ago and the average of 52%.
US soybean crushing for April were seen at 178 million bushels which was down 4.9% from the same time last year. Lower crush margins have been a bearish factor.
All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning as they continue to work down from their recent contract highs. Funds are likely adding new shorts, but producers are likely hedging new crop as well which could be adding pressure.
For spring wheat, yesterday’s Crop Progress Report said that 94% of the crop has been planted which compares to 91% a year ago and the 5-year average of 90%. 78% of the crop is emerged which compares to the average of 69%, and 74% has been rated good to excellent which compares to 64% a year ago.
In winter wheat, the USDA said that 49% of the crop has been rated good to excellent which is up a point from last week and compares to 36% a year ago. 83% is headed which compares to the average of 78%, and 6% is harvested which compares to the average of 3% for this time.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower to start the week as the ag markets face continued selling pressure with funds entering new short positions. The July contract is now trading below all of its moving averages and is at a level of support.
Later today, the USDA will release its Crop Progress Report which will also include the seasons first crop ratings. Weather has been mixed with heavy rainfall in parts of the country which could cause delays for the crop yet to be planted.
As of May 28, noncommercials reportedly added 12,315 contracts to their net short position which leaves the with a total net short position of 133,477 contracts. Open interest increased significantly last week pointing to the new shorts.
Soybeans are trading lower to start the week, and this is now the fifth consecutive day of lower prices for the July contract which has also fallen below all of its moving averages. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower with bean oil posting the larger losses.
Soybean crush in the month of April has been estimated at 175.5 million bushels as analyst expect that the USDA will peg crush at a 7-month low. If realized, this would be down 13.9% from the 203.7 mb crushed in March and down 6.1% from April 2023.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of soybeans as of the 28th which has likely changed since that date. They bought 12,208 contracts which reduced their net short position to 14,218 contracts.
All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with Chicago leading the way up as global weather remains a concern for traders. The areas being watched closely are Russia and the Black Sea region along with Europe.
Unlike the rest of the world, Australia is faring well with its weather, and as a result may see its wheat crop rise by as much as 5.7% thanks to the rains. Their total production is estimated at 27.4 mmt.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of wheat just barely, only selling 838 contracts which leaves them net short 25,431 contracts.
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