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7-1 Opening Update: Grains Mixed to Start the Week, Corn Lower Following Friday’s Report

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

SEP ’24 406 -1.5
DEC ’24 419.25 -1.5
DEC ’25 456.5 1

Soybeans

AUG ’24 1136.75 3.25
NOV ’24 1102.25 -1.75
NOV ’25 1103.5 2

Chicago Wheat

SEP ’24 575.75 2.25
DEC ’24 599 2
JUL ’25 629 0.75

K.C. Wheat

SEP ’24 586.25 0
DEC ’24 602.5 -0.75
JUL ’25 622 -0.5

Mpls Wheat

SEP ’24 617.25 4.25
DEC ’24 632 -0.5
SEP ’25 661.75 0

S&P 500

SEP ’24 5533 11.5

Crude Oil

SEP ’24 81.19 0.55

Gold

OCT ’24 2367.7 5.2

  • Corn is trading lower this morning with forecasts for the Corn Belt remaining wet in most areas, but the northwestern and central regions which have already gotten flooded are expected to receive rain as well.
  • Friday’s USDA acreage and stocks report was bearish for corn with 91.5 million acres of corn expected to be planted which was above the average trade guess and above the planting intention number from March. Stocks were also higher than expectations.
  • Funds were aggressive sellers of corn as of June 25 and sold 86,204 contracts which increased their net short position to 277,666 contracts.

  • Soybeans are mixed to start the day with the new front month, August, trading slightly higher while November soybeans are lower in more bull spreading action that points to the demand for cash soybeans. Soybean meal is trading lower while soybean oil is higher.
  • Friday’s stocks and acreage report was mostly friendly for soybeans with planted acres below trade expectations at 86.1 million acres, but the stocks report was slightly bearish at 970 million bushels which was above expectations.
  • According to Friday’s CFTC report, funds were heavy sellers across the ag complex and sold 23,693 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 129,663 contracts.

  • Wheat is mixed to start the week with Chicago and Minneapolis trading slightly higher but KC lower. Prices have fallen sharply from the May high as trade shrugs off concerns that the Russian wheat crop may be short due to weather.
  • Friday’s stocks and acreage report was neutral to slightly bearish with the estimate of harvested acres increasing from 38.0 million to 38.8 million. Wheat stocks were called at 702 mb at the end of 23/24 which was the most in three years but also the third lowest in 10 years.
  • Funds were sellers of wheat as of June 26 selling 17,755 contracts which increased their net short position to 70,487 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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6-28 Opening Update: Grains Higher to Start the Day, First Notice Day for July Grains

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’24 417.75 4
DEC ’24 435.25 1.5
DEC ’25 459 0.5

Soybeans

JUL ’24 1155 2.75
NOV ’24 1111.5 6.75
NOV ’25 1105.75 7.75

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’24 557.5 -2.25
SEP ’24 585 5.5
JUL ’25 634.25 3.75

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’24 592.25 0.25
SEP ’24 599.75 3
JUL ’25 630.5 4.25

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’24 610 -0.75
SEP ’24 624.25 6.25
SEP ’25 656.75 0

S&P 500

SEP ’24 5565 19

Crude Oil

AUG ’24 82.51 0.77

Gold

AUG ’24 2345.7 9.1

  • Corn is trading slightly higher this morning after 6 consecutive days of losses in the September contract as trade prepares for the stocks and acreage report at 11am central today. Planted acres are expected to be slightly higher than the March estimate.
  • In today’s USDA Grain Stocks and Planted Acreage report, estimates are that corn planted acres will come in at 90.353 million which would be slightly higher than the March planting intentions. US quarterly stocks estimates are at 4.873 billion bushels.
  • Forecasts remain mostly favorable for crops with the eastern Corn Belt in particular which has been dry having gotten rain this week and is expected to receive more over the next ten days.

  • Soybeans are trading higher along with corn this morning as they try to bounce following a new low for the year in November soybeans yesterday. Soybean meal is trading lower while soybean oil is higher.
  • In today’s Quarterly Grain Stocks and Planted Acreage Report, analysts estimate that the number of soybean planted acres will come in at 86.753 million which would be slightly higher than the March planting intentions. Quarterly soybean stocks as of June 1 are estimated to come in at 0.962 billion bushels which would be higher than last year.
  • While recent weather has gotten the soybean crop off to a good start, the crop is made in August, and some forecasts are calling for conditions to get hot and dry in the coming months as the La Nina pattern takes effect.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher in the September month which will be the new front month with today being first notice day for July grains. Chicago wheat is leading the way as it bounces off recent lows.
  • Estimates for today’s Planted Acreage report have all wheat at 47.657 million acres with 34.197 of those being winter wheat and 11.34 spring wheat. Quarterly wheat stocks are estimated at 0.684 billion bushels.
  • Yesterday’s export sales report showed sales at the higher end of trade expectations at 24.5 million bushels. This puts sales 45% ahead of the pace from one year ago.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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6-27 Opening Update: Grains Mixed to Start the Day, Quiet Ahead of Report Tomorrow

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’24 417.5 -2.5
DEC ’24 433.75 -2.75
DEC ’25 457.5 1

Soybeans

JUL ’24 1165.75 3
NOV ’24 1106.25 -0.75
NOV ’25 1104 2.25

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’24 543 1.75
SEP ’24 561.75 1.25
JUL ’25 617.25 1.75

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’24 578.75 -1.25
SEP ’24 579.25 -5.25
JUL ’25 614 -1.25

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’24 598.25 2.25
SEP ’24 604.25 0.25
SEP ’25 652 2.25

S&P 500

SEP ’24 5533 -10.5

Crude Oil

AUG ’24 81.22 0.32

Gold

AUG ’24 2324.3 11.1

  • Corn is trading lower this morning with the September contract having taken out yesterday’s low and making a new contract low. Prices have been pressured by a wet forecast despite some areas flooding.
  • US ethanol stocks fell by 0.8% to 23.423 mln bbl according to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report. Analysts were expecting 23.683 mln bbl, and plant production came in at 1.043 million barrels per day compared to the survey average of 1.065m.
  • The extended forecast is showing above average temperatures in the eastern Corn Belt, but the more significant heat will be further south. As long as rain remains in the forecast, it should offset some of the heat’s effects on the crop. 

  • Soybeans are once again bull spread with the front month trading higher but the November contract continuing to slide as domestic crush demand remains stout but trade expects a large soybean crop this fall. Soybean meal is slightly lower while soybean oil is higher.
  • The July contract currently holds a 20-cent premium to the August contract which further points to the need for cash soybeans in the market. The soybean carryout estimate also remains tight at 350 mb, so tomorrow’s report should shed some more light on supplies.
  • Estimates for today’s export sales report in soybeans are between 300k and 700k tons with an average estimate of 505k tons. This would be below last week’s sales but above those of a year ago.

  • The wheat complex is mixed this morning with Chicago and Minneapolis wheat trading slightly higher in the July contract while KC trades slightly lower. Prices may be finding some support after the severe sell-off at the March lows earlier this year.
  • Ukrainian grain exports have increased by 3.9% so far this season which started on July 1 to 50.3 mmt. Of that number, 18.3 mmt were wheat which is up almost 10% year over year. Russian and Ukrainian wheat offers continue to take precedence in the export market with such cheap prices.
  • Estimates for today’s export sales report in wheat are in a range between 200k and 700k tons with the average guess at 463k. This would be below exports from a week ago but above last year.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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6-26 Opening Update: Grains Recover Some of Tuesday’s Losses

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’24 427.5 2
DEC ’24 444.25 1.25
DEC ’25 462.25 1.25

Soybeans

JUL ’24 1175 11.75
NOV ’24 1114.25 2.75
NOV ’25 1106 0.75

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’24 543.25 1.5
SEP ’24 562.5 2
JUL ’25 616 -0.25

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’24 577.75 1.75
SEP ’24 583.25 1.75
JUL ’25 613.5 2.25

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’24 599 3.25
SEP ’24 606.75 3.25
SEP ’25 650 0

S&P 500

SEP ’24 5536.75 -0.25

Crude Oil

AUG ’24 81.37 0.54

Gold

AUG ’24 2317.7 -13.1

  • Corn is trading slightly higher this morning after Tuesday’s tumble in prices. Except for isolated pockets, lack of moisture does not appear to be an issue for any in the heart of the Corn Belt over the next seven days. 
  • U.S. corn basis on the national index moved higher again this week to 13-1/4 cents under the July contract. This is the highest level of the marketing year. Margins for ethanol as well as other end users have continued to improve as of late. 
  • The average estimate for corn stocks as of June 1 that will be released on Friday’s USDA report is 4.87 bb, this would be up 700 mb from June 1 of 2023. The average acreage estimate is 90.27 million acres, up 230,000 acres from the March intentions estimate. 

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning after Tuesday’s disappointing washout in prices. 
  • Rains have fallen over the last 72-hours in some of the recently drier portions of the Midwest east of the Mississippi. With such poor new crop export sales on the books traders seem unconcerned about recent flooding in the upper Midwest. 
  • Friday’s USDA quarterly grain stocks report is expected to show soybean stocks as of June 1 at 957 mb, up 161 mb from June 1 of last year. U.S. soybean planted acreage is expected to come in at 86.86 million, up about 350,000 acres from the March estimate.

  • In recently rare fashion, all three wheat contracts are trading higher this morning. The entire wheat complex has been in oversold territory for about three weeks now with little to no relief in continued selling pressure. 
  • Harvest selling pressure has been a likely aid in the continued recent fall in wheat prices. Strong test weights and better than expected yields have been a common theme as harvest has progressed across Kansas. 
  • The USDA’s end of week and month report is excepted to show all wheat stocks at 682 mb, up 112 mb from June 1 of 2023. All wheat acres are expected to come in at 47.57 million acres, up about 79 million acres from the March estimate. 

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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6-25 Opening Update: Grains trading Lower Following Crop Progress Report

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’24 430.25 -3.25
DEC ’24 448 -3.75
DEC ’25 463.25 -3.75

Soybeans

JUL ’24 1175 -0.25
NOV ’24 1123 -7.5
NOV ’25 1114.75 -3.75

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’24 551.25 -1.25
SEP ’24 569.75 -1.25
JUL ’25 623.75 -3

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’24 581.5 0
SEP ’24 587 -0.5
JUL ’25 620.75 0

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’24 609.5 4.25
SEP ’24 615.25 2.5
SEP ’25 650 0

S&P 500

SEP ’24 5528.25 11.25

Crude Oil

AUG ’24 81.13 -0.5

Gold

AUG ’24 2346.3 1.9

  • Corn is trading lower this morning but has not yet taken out yesterday’s low of $4.43 in the December contract. While parts of the northern Corn Belt were flooded, the forecast for the eastern Belt which has been dry has some rain in it which is pressuring the market.
  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress Report showed the corn crops good to excellent rating falling by 3 point to 69% which compares to 72% a week ago at this time. 97% of the corn crop is emerged, and 4% of the corn crop is silking.
  • The CFTC report was delayed until yesterday afternoon, but as of June 18, funds were seen buying back 20,817 contracts of corn which reduced their net short position to 191,462 contracts.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning but like corn, have not taken out yesterday’s lows. The November contract posted a key reversal higher by making new contract lows before reversing and closing higher on the day. Both soybean meal and oil are lower this morning as well.
  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress showed the soybean good to excellent rating falling by 3 points to 67% which was 1 point below the trade estimate and compares to 51% a year ago. 90% of the soybean crop is emerged and 8% is blooming.
  • Monday’s CFTC report showed funds selling additional contract as of June 18. They added 30,090 contracts to their net short position bringing it to 105,970 contracts and have likely added more shorts since that day.

  • Wheat is mixed this morning wit Chicago and KC wheat trading lower while Minneapolis wheat is slightly higher. The crop progress report was bullish for spring wheat but bearish for winter wheat which saw conditions improving.
  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress saw spring wheat rated 71% good to excellent which was 4 points below the average trade guess and down 5 points from last week. 18% of the crop is headed. In winter wheat, 52% of the crop is rated good to excellent which was 3 points above the average trade guess and 3 points above last week. 40% of the winter crop is harvested.
  • Yesterday’s CFTC report showed funds adding more shorts to their position by selling 7,616 contracts which leaves them net short 52,732 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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6-24 Opening Update: Grains Mixed to Start the Week

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’24 434.75 -0.25
DEC ’24 451.75 -1.5
DEC ’25 465 -0.25

Soybeans

JUL ’24 1168.75 8.25
NOV ’24 1123.5 3.5
NOV ’25 1114.25 4.25

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’24 560.5 -1
SEP ’24 577 1.25
JUL ’25 631.75 0

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’24 581.5 0.25
SEP ’24 586.25 -0.75
JUL ’25 622.75 0

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’24 613 1.5
SEP ’24 618.5 1.25
SEP ’25 656.25 0

S&P 500

SEP ’24 5540.75 6.5

Crude Oil

AUG ’24 80.99 0.26

Gold

AUG ’24 2336.6 5.4

  • Corn is trading slightly lower to start the week as trade looks to rainfall in parts of the eastern Corn Belt this weekend while ignoring areas in Iowa, Minnesota, and South Dakota that saw flooding.
  • In Brazil, the harvesting of both first and second crop corn crops are off to a good start thanks to warm and dry weather in key regions. Sales have been slow however, as buyers wait for lower prices and sellers hold firm.
  • Friday’s export sales report showed total sales below the range of trade estimates at 20.1 million bushels. Despite lower sales, they are still 2.5% above the 15-year average of total sales.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning as futures bounce off long term support after the November contract closed at the lowest level since 2021. Soybean meal is trading higher while soybean oil is slightly lower this morning.
  • On Friday, the USDA reported that 640.5k tons of soybeans were sold last week which compares to 380.1 mb the previous week and 626.3 mb a year ago. China was a top buyer of US soybeans at 214k tons.
  • With China making such a large soybean purchase last week, it may be an indicator that the US is becoming more competitive with Brazil, or that the recent weather events in Brazil have cut the size of their crop to an estimate closer than CONAB’s.

  • Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago and KC wheat trading lower while Minneapolis wheat remains slightly higher. As prices slide back down to their pre-rally levels, importers may show renewed interest.
  • World weather is currently threatening for the wheat crops with both Russia and Ukraine forecast to receive hot and dry weather in the coming months, potential flooding in the US Midwest, but Australia receiving more rain than expected.
  • In Russia, SovEcon has revised wheat production lower again at 127.4 mmt which would compare to 144.9 mmt the previous year. This production decrease may be priced in at this point considering that there were reports of dry weather and frosts causing problems months ago.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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6-21 Opening Update: Grains Trading Slightly Higher After Yesterday’s Selloff

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’24 442.25 2.5
DEC ’24 459 2.25
DEC ’25 470.75 1.5

Soybeans

JUL ’24 1164.25 9
NOV ’24 1119.75 3
NOV ’25 1114 -0.25

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’24 575.5 2.75
SEP ’24 590 4
JUL ’25 641.5 2.25

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’24 594.5 2.5
SEP ’24 600 1.75
JUL ’25 635 1.25

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’24 622.5 3.75
SEP ’24 631 5.25
SEP ’25 671.25 0

S&P 500

SEP ’24 5542.25 -2.25

Crude Oil

AUG ’24 81.2 -0.09

Gold

AUG ’24 2379.2 10.2

  • Corn is trading slightly higher this morning  after selling off sharply yesterday with the December contract reaching as low as 10 cents above the February low. Pressure came from seemingly improved weather and option expiration which is today.
  • The export sales report was pushed back until later this morning, and estimates for corn sales are between 700k and 1,300k tons with an average guess of 1,000k tons. This would be slightly lower than last week’s but well above last year’s number.
  • The largest trading company of China’s in the ag complex agreed to sell its Chicago grain terminal to coop, Growmark. China has said it is still invested in its other US businesses but wants to relocate citing high crime and high costs.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning and are bull spread with the majority of gains in the front months. This comes after yesterday’s selloff where November soybeans closed at their lowest point since August 2021. Soybean meal is trading higher while soybean oil is lower.
  • In today’s export sales report, soybean sales are expected to come in between 400k and 900k tons with an average estimate of 588k tons. This would be above last week’s sales but below those of last year at this time.
  • Prices were driven lower yesterday by the weather forecast which expects rain in the Corn Belt over the weekend and showed some small showers a few days ago, but the extended forecast is hot and dry. It seems like the trade isn’t willing to be concerned until those conditions are upon us.

  • All three wheat classes are trading slightly higher this morning as the July wheat contract has now given back essentially all of its gains from the massive rally which started in April. Harvest pressure in the US is offsetting the fact that global production is expected to fall.
  • In today’s export sales report, wheat sales are expected to be in between 200k and 550k tons with an average guess of 338k. This would be well above last week and higher than a year ago at this time as well.
  • In Russia, SovEcon has revised wheat production lower again at 127.4 mmt which would compare to 144.9 mmt the previous year. This production decrease may be priced in at this point considering that there were reports of dry weather and frosts causing problems months ago.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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6-20 Opening Update: Grains Trading Lower Following Yesterday’s Holiday

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

JUL ’24 447.75 -2.25
DEC ’24 465.25 -2.5
DEC ’25 475 -1

Soybeans

JUL ’24 1170.75 -3.25
NOV ’24 1128.25 -3.75
NOV ’25 1121 0.5

Chicago Wheat

JUL ’24 575 -7
SEP ’24 592.5 -6.5
JUL ’25 647.5 -4.75

K.C. Wheat

JUL ’24 595 -5.75
SEP ’24 603.5 -6.25
JUL ’25 640 -2.75

Mpls Wheat

JUL ’24 624.75 -8
SEP ’24 633.25 -7
SEP ’25 680 0

S&P 500

SEP ’24 5581.75 22

Crude Oil

AUG ’24 80.84 0.13

Gold

AUG ’24 2352.4 5.5

  • Corn is trading lower this morning after the markets were closed yesterday for the Juneteenth holiday. December corn has been relatively rangebound since the beginning of the month, but better than expected weather forecasts are pressuring markets.
  • In the eastern Corn Belt, temperatures are expected to be very hot which will make rainfall critical. There were some light showers yesterday through Illinois and Indiana, but more rain is expected to fall over a wider area this weekend.
  • Corn demand has been relatively strong thanks to Mexico who has been the primary buyer of US corn. Shipments are up 23% in 23/24 from the previous year, and ethanol production is up as well by 4%.

  • Soybeans continue to slide lower this morning despite a large NOPA crush number that was higher than the average trade estimates, and futures are now just 5 cents away from the low posted in February of this year. Soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is trading higher.
  • Chinese imports of soybeans from the US jumped in May and were up 156% from the same period a year ago. China purchased 1.27 mmt of soybeans from the US as Brazilian supplies shrink due to the flooding in the southern region of the country.
  • In Brazil, soybean planted acres are expected to continue to increase each year to contribute to biofuel demand rather than Chinese exports. Andre Nassar, who is the head of the Brazilian soybean crushers lobby, believes that Brazilian soybean production could reach 170 mmt in the new season with favorable weather.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with Chicago wheat leading the way lower. July Chicago wheat futures are trading $1.45 below last month’s high as trade shrugs off concerns about a dip in Russian production.
  • Ukrainian grain exports for the 23/24 July-June marketing season increased to 49.3 mmt from 47.5 mmt a year earlier. Of that number, wheat made up 18.1 mmt of wheat.
  • In Russia, SovEcon has revised wheat production lower again at 127.4 mmt which would compare to 144.9 mmt the previous year. This production decrease may be priced in at this point considering that there were reports of dry weather and frosts causing problems months ago.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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6-18 Opening Update: Grains Trading Slightly Higher Following Yesterday’s Sell Off

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’24 446.5 2.75
DEC ’24 465.25 2.25
DEC ’25 475.75 1.5
Soybeans
JUL ’24 1160.75 3
NOV ’24 1133 2.75
NOV ’25 1122.5 1.5
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’24 588.5 -3
SEP ’24 607 -1
JUL ’25 658 2
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’24 605.75 0.25
SEP ’24 616 0.5
JUL ’25 649.75 3
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’24 639.5 1
SEP ’24 648.25 0.75
SEP ’25 685 0
S&P 500
SEP ’24 5544.75 -1.5
Crude Oil
AUG ’24 79.75 0.03
Gold
AUG ’24 2324.3 -4.7

  • Corn is trading slightly higher this morning following yesterday’s move lower and afternoon Crop Progress report which showed corn good to excellent ratings falling slightly.
  • Yesterday, the USDA said that 72% of the corn crop was rated good to excellent which was a 2-point decline from last week’s ratings. 93% of the crop is now emerged which compares to 85% last week and the 5-year average of 95%.
  • The US inspected 1,287k tons of corn for export last week which was below last week’s inspections by 4%. Mexico was the top destination for corn inspections. In China, corn imports for May were down 36.8% year over year. 

  • Soybeans are also trading slightly higher this morning with some support from yesterday’s crop progress. November futures are only 10 cents off February’s lows, however. Soybean meal is trading higher this morning while soybean oil is unchanged.
  • Yesterday, the USDA said that 70% of the soybean crop was rated good to excellent which was a 2% decline from the previous week, but trade was expecting this small drop. 82% of the soybean crop is emerged which compares to 70% a week ago and the 5-year average of 79%. 93% of the crop is planted.
  • Yesterday’s NOPA crush results for the month of May were encouraging, although the market didn’t react. At 183.625 million bushels, it was above nearly all trade estimates and rebounded from the previous month’s seven-month low.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning as prices continue to slide from the recent high on May 28. Harvest pressure within the US is not supportive as production is expected to be much larger than last year’s.
  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress Report showed winter wheat ratings improving to 49% good to excellent which was a 2-point jump from the previous week. 94% of the winter wheat crop is headed which compares to 89% last week, and 27% of the crop has been harvested which compares to 12% last week and the 5-year average of 14%.
  • In spring wheat, the USDA said that 76% of the crop was rated good to excellent which was a 4-point increase from last week. 95% of the crop is emerged and 4% is headed which compares to the 5 year averages of 93% and 7% respectively.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

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6-17 Opening Update: Trading Lower to Start the Week on Bearish Weather

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn
JUL ’24 445.75 -4.25
DEC ’24 465.75 -4.5
DEC ’25 476.5 -2.25
Soybeans
JUL ’24 1166.75 -13
NOV ’24 1139.25 -10.5
NOV ’25 1126 -9
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’24 597.25 -15.5
SEP ’24 614.5 -14
JUL ’25 663 -8.25
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’24 613 -14.5
SEP ’24 622.5 -13.75
JUL ’25 655.5 -8
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’24 646.25 -9.25
SEP ’24 657.25 -8.75
SEP ’25 685 -11
S&P 500
SEP ’24 5499.75 -2.5
Crude Oil
AUG ’24 78.08 0.03
Gold
AUG ’24 2335.4 -13.7

  • Corn is trading lower this morning after a poor close on Friday as the extended weather forecast shows good growing conditions in much of the Corn Belt. Both July and December corn have fallen below their 100-day moving averages.
  • The central Corn Belt is expected to receive rainfall starting this weekend which would follow a period of dry conditions. The northern regions, however, have continued to receive heavy rains over the past 3 days, and Minnesota and NW Iowa still have at least another 3 to 5 inches of rain in the forecast.
  • Friday’s CFTC report which was recorded as of June 11 showed that funds bought back 427 contracts of corn which left them net short 212,279 contracts. They have likely been more aggressive sellers since the 11th which is reflected in lower prices.

  • Soybeans are trading sharply lower as trade sees the weather as bearish despite the fact that August weather will likely be the determining factor for this crop. Basis has begun to improve, and processing margins have increased as well. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower this morning as well.
  • Later today, the USDA will release its crop progress report, and traders are expecting to see last week’s initial good to excellent rating of 72% to fall slightly.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as net sellers as of June 11 adding 16,139 contracts to their net short position and bringing it to 75,880 contracts.

  • All three classes of wheat are trading lower this morning and are led by Chicago wheat. European wheat prices have fallen sharply over the past week which has had an affect on US futures, but pressure has also come from the ongoing US harvest that is much larger than last year’s.
  • July Chicago wheat futures are now $1.24 off their May highs which were mainly caused by concerns that Russia’s wheat production would be cut significantly, but trade has begun to shrug off the concerns and prices have fallen in accordance.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds selling 13,432 contracts of wheat as of June 11 which leaves them net short 45,116 contracts. Funds are less short than they were last year at this time and are generally within the range of the 5-year average at this time.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.