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All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading a bit lower this morning but remains well above its 100-day moving average for the first time since the July rally of last year. There may be some selling pressure ahead of the USDA report on Friday.
• Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report showed that 36% of the corn crop is planted which is below the trade estimate of 39%. This compares to 27% last week and now puts progress below the 5-year average of 39%. 12% of the crop is emerged which is ahead of the average of 9%. Another week of delays due to rain could be an issue.
• Corn is South America is struggling with hot and dry conditions in Brazil and the leaf hopper insects wreaking havoc is Argentina. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has lowered its estimate of corn production to 45.5 mmt. The USDA’s last estimate was 55 mmt.

• Soybeans are correcting slightly from yesterday’s big gains of over 33 cents in the July contract that were driven by planting delays and flooding in southern Brazil and parts of Argentina. Soybeans have joined wheat and are trading well above their 100-day moving average.
• Yesterday’s crop progress report showed that the soybean crop is 25% planted which is below the trade estimate of 28% and compares with 18% last week. Soybeans are still above the 5-year average of 21% but could slip if progress is stalled again this week. 9% of the crop has emerged.
• The flooding in Rio Grande do Sul has been a large impact on this rally and specifically has benefitted soybean meal as Brazil typically exports a portion of its bean crop to Argentina to be crushed. The flooding comes after a season that suffered through drought conditions as well further impacting yields in those areas.

• All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning along with the rest of the grain market as prices correct from big gains yesterday. KC wheat is leading the complex lower this morning.
• Yesterday’s crop progress showed an improvement in winter wheat conditions by 1 point to 50% good to excellent. This was a point above the average trade guess and is well above the dismal 29% rating a year ago. 43% of the crop is headed which compares to 30% a week ago and the 5-year average of 32%.
• Crop progress for spring wheat showed that 47% has been planted which is above the trade estimate of 45% and above the 5-year average of 31% as spring wheat areas have dealt with less rain. 12% of the crop is reportedly emerged which compares to 5% last week and the 5-yerar average of 9%.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading slightly lower this morning with the July contract back down at the 100-day moving average. This follows a 10-1/4 cent gain in the contract last week that was caused by production issues in South America and potential planting delays in the US.
• This Friday, the USDA will release its May Supply and Demand report, and traders expect that old crop ending stocks will be steady to lower, that there could be an increase in export demand, and the 24/25 new crop balance sheet will be released as well. Using a yield of 181 bpa, production should be estimated around 14.8 billion bushels.
• Friday’s CFTC report showed that as of April 30, funds bought back 20,506 contracts of corn which leaves them net short 218,040 contracts.

• Soybeans are trading a couple cents lower to start the week, and the July contract is trading 7-cents off its overnight highs which saw prices move higher again and just below the 100-day moving average. Futures have been supported by harvesting issues in South America.
• Both Argentina and southern Brazil remain far too wet which is causing soybeans to be left in the field unable to be reached. In Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil, the soybean crop that is left is reportedly deteriorating quickly as the area has faced significant flooding. This could cause production in the state to fall to 19 mmt.
• Friday’s CFTC report surprisingly showed funds as sellers of 222 contracts of soybeans as of April 30 which increased their net short position to 149,236 contracts. It should be noted that the more significant rally came the following day with the July contract gaining 37-3/4 cents on the week.

• All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with KC wheat leading the way as some areas of western Kansas that had been forecast to be very dry are in better condition than had been expected. This morning losses in wheat are likely dragging corn down.
• Global weather remains an issue for wheat with Russia dealing with limited rains and potentially colder than expected weather. The western Canadian Prairies are dry but are forecast to receive rain this week, and western Europe remains too wet.
• Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as net buyers of Chicago wheat by 28,318 contracts which leaves them net short 47,866 contracts. Funds were buyers of KC wheat by 18,598 contracts which left them net short 29,610 contracts as of April 30.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading higher again this morning after two consecutively higher closes which has seen the July contract gain 17 cents over the past three days and is now sitting above the 100-day moving average for the first time since October of last year. December corn is at its highest level since December of last year.
• The recent gains in corn are likely a combination of potential planting delays in the US, hot and dry weather for both Brazil and Argentina’s second crop corn, and the very large short position that the funds hold which they have likely been exiting.
• Rains continue to fall in the eastern Corn Belt delaying planting, but the western Belt is further along. Delays due to rain could be an issue until May 18, and producers may not be as inclined to sell into this rally if they are unsure of their own production.

• Soybeans are trading higher again today with the July contract gaining 45 cents since Wednesday. The November contract is trading above its 100-day moving average for the first time since December of last year. Soybean meal is trading higher again while soybean oil is lower.
• In Brazil, the soybean growing areas around Rio Grande do Sul are experiencing flooding which is delaying harvest, and reportedly 25% of the crop in that region is still in the field potentially causing significant losses in production.
• Argentina has been having a similar problem to Brazil with too much rain falling to complete their soybean harvest. This is expected to impact total production and could impact the countries soybean meal exports. That is the likely cause for the strength in bean meal futures.

• All three wheat classes are trading higher for the second consecutive day with KC wheat once again leading the way as there are concerns about the winter wheat crops quality. July Chicago wheat seems to be stuck in a range between the 100 and 200-day moving average.
• Just as weather has been the driver behind the move in corn and soybeans, it has been driving wheat as well. Trade is mainly focused on the lack of rainfall in the Black Sea region and in Russia which will likely impact production, but the EU and India are dealing with adverse weather as well.
• Consultancy firm IKAR has lowered its estimate for the 24/25 Russian wheat crop by 2 mmt to 91 mmt. Its export outlook has been lowered to 50.5 mmt from 52 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading higher this morning with the July contract now just 4 cents off the high made on March 28 following the grain stocks report. The delays in planting progress are likely adding to support as rains continue to fall in the Corn Belt.
• The first week of May is typically when the most planting progress is completed, but if conditions remain wet, the work will likely slow. The 8 to 14-day forecast shows above normal precipitation in the Corn Belt.
• Yesterday’s ethanol production report showed an increase in production to 987k barrels per day and is up 4.1% from a year ago at this time. 468.8 mb of corn were used fort ethanol in March which is up 7.5% from a year ago.

• Soybeans are trading higher for the second consecutive day after reversing off of yesterday’s lows and ending higher which was technically bullish. July soybeans are trading right at the 50-day moving average, and both soybean meal and oil are trading higher.
• Yesterday, the USDA released its monthly oilseed report which showed 204 mb of soybeans crushed in March. This was 2.9% higher than this time last year.
• There are beginning to be concerns over the progress of the Argentinian soybean harvest which is being delayed by rains and could impact yields. In Brazil, soybean basis levels are rising as well which is supporting futures.

• All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning and are being led by KC wheat which Chicago’s gains are not far behind. World weather in wheat growing regions has been a main factor behind the higher prices recently.
• Forecasts for Russia and the Black Sea region initially showed better rain chances over the next week, but are drying up as time passes. In the US, Kansas, Texas, and Oklahoma are also in need of rains for the winter wheat crop.
• Egypt reportedly expects to import up to 5.7 mmt of wheat in the 24/25 marketing year and has bought 1.1 mmt domestically since April. Their current wheat stockpiles should last 3 months.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading slightly lower this morning. Moisture looks to be abundant across the Midwest for the first seven days of May. Higher rainfall amounts are expected in the western Corn Belt states of Iowa and Missouri. 
• Late yesterday afternoon the Biden administration announced the updated GREET rules for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). To qualify for the SAF subsidies, fuel made from corn or soybeans must demonstrate it has a 50% lower carbon footprint than petroleum-based jet fuel. 
• The Safrinha corn crop in Brazil will have a warm and dry end to the growing season as the current weather pattern for central Brazil appears to remain in place for at least the next 10-days. 

• Soybeans are lower this morning after yesterday’s tumble in prices. Delivery notices were large for May soybean oil futures on first notice day yesterday. This led to a drop in front month soybean oil futures to their lowest level since early 2021.
• Last week’s U.S. drought monitor showed just 21% of soybean producing areas were covered in some form of drought, this is down significantly from six months ago when soybean areas were 52% covered. With an active weather pattern predicted into mid-May, this coverage will likely drop in the coming weeks.
• Heavy rains in Argentina and far southern Brazil are limiting harvest progress. Harvest in Argentina was just 25% complete as of the latest update, this compares to the five-year average of 48% complete for this same week. 

• Wheat is mixed this morning with Chicago slightly higher while KC and spring wheat futures are slightly lower.
• Hard Red Spring deliverable wheat stocks at Duluth have seen a significant drop recently. To end the month of April they were at their lowest level since the 2008/09 marketing year for this week. 
• Russian FOB wheat values continue to be the benchmark for the world, prices have moved slightly higher in recent weeks but remain the cheapest in the world offered near $212 per metric ton. 

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading unchanged to slightly lower this morning with first notice day here for May grains. There were zero deliveries against the May contract which suggests an unwillingness to sell at these levels and is friendly.
• Yesterday evening, the USDA released its crop progress report which showed corn plantings at 27% complete which was right on the nose with trade estimates, compares to 12% last year, and the 5-year average of 22%. 7% of the corn crop is emerged which compares to 3% last week and 5% a year ago.
• Yesterday’s export inspection report showed that 48.3 million bushels of corn were inspected which was above the 47.4 mb needed each week to meet the USDA’s estimates. It is possible that exports will be increased in next months WASDE report.

• Soybeans are mixed this morning with the May contract trading slightly higher and the deferred months trading a bit lower. July soybeans are still hovering right at the 40-day moving average and are in a consolidating pattern. 533 contracts of soybeans were delivered against the May contract. Soybean meal is trading higher again after yesterday’s rally while soybean oil is lower.
• Yesterday’s crop progress report showed that 18% of the soybean crop has been planted which was slightly above the average trade guess of 17%. This compares to 8% last week and the 5-year average of 10% for this time of year.
• In Argentina, heavy rains are falling in key growing areas which is keeping farmers out of the fields and could potentially damage the soybean yields. Soybean meal is very sensitive to potential changes in Argentinian production.

• All three classes of wheat are trading lower this morning with Chicago leading the way lower. Wheat is already over 30 cents off its high from Friday as any rallies in the grain complex quickly get sold. There were deliveries of 1,151 contracts against May Chicago wheat but none against KC or Minn wheat.
• Yesterday’s crop progress report showed that 49% of the crop is rated good to excellent which is done 1 point from last week but is still above last year’s rating of 28%. 34% of spring wheat is planted which compares to 15% last week, and 5% of spring wheat is emerged which compares to 2% last week.
• In Russia, drought conditions are expected throughout next month which analysts are saying could lower the country’s total production. Support in wheat prices are likely coming from this as Russia is providing most of the world with its wheat.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading slightly lower this morning after the July contract posted a 7-cent gain last week with prices closing firmly above the 50-day moving average which had been resistance. Basis levels have also improved significantly.
• In China, there are plans to cut into the key corn growing area in order to switch some of those acres to soybeans. There has been an oversupply of corn, and the Chinese government is attempting to lessen its reliance on supplies from South America and the US.
• Friday’s CFTC report showed quite a bit of short covering with funds buying back 41,024 contracts as of April 23 which leaves them net short 238,546 contracts. First notice day for May corn is tomorrow and funds have likely been rolling out of the May contract.

• Soybeans are trading higher to start the week but July futures are still struggling to break above the 50-day moving average and close firmly above it. Both soybean meal and oil are higher this morning, and the recent selloff in palm oil and soybean oil may be attracting buyers at the lower prices.
• The US share of Chinese imports has significantly fallen as both Argentina and Brazil continue to put out larger crops each year lessening the need for US purchases. Chinese imports from the US are expected to fall by 24% with Argentina picking up that business.
• Funds were buyers of soybeans in last week’s CFTC report, but the move was not as significant in soybeans as it was in corn and wheat. Funds bought back 18,891 contracts of soybeans which still leaves them near record short at 149,014 contracts.

• Wheat is mixed this morning as Chicago wheat trades around 8 cents lower, but KC and Minneapolis wheat trade slightly higher. It is not surprising to see some buying pressure as July Chicago wheat rallied over 55 cents last week and met resistance all the way up at the 200-day moving average.
• While things like US weather and fighting in the Black Sea regions have caused wheat prices to fluctuate, the biggest influence on prices is likely Russian production seeing as they have supplied wheat to nearly the entire world. Russian forecasters are expecting a drought threat in May in the “breadbasket region” which could significantly impact production.
• Last Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back 20,219 contracts of wheat which reduced their net short position to 76,184 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading slightly lower this morning, but the pattern over the past two days has been lower prices in the overnight trade before moving higher into the end of the day. July corn is on track for a weekly gain of about 9 cents right now, but could face resistance at the 100-day moving average at $4.62 eventually.
• Yesterday’s export sales in corn were strong at 51.1 million bushels which was above the higher range of expectations. Primary destinations were to Mexico, South Korea, and Japan. Export shipments of 66.9 mb were a marketing year high.
• In Argentina, the 23/24 corn harvest is now called at 19.8% complete which compares to 17.2% the previous week. Prices may have found some support with leaf hopper insects transmitting a disease among the Argentinian crop that will cause yields to drop. 

• Soybeans are trading lower this morning but are still on track for a higher weekly close. July soybeans were rebuffed by the 40 and 50-day moving averages over the past two days which have acted as resistance, and yesterday’s poor export sales were not supportive. Soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is slightly higher.
• Yesterday, the US Drought Monitor showed a smaller area of drought than the previous week, and there should be more improvement next week with all of the rains this week. Monday’s crop progress report will reveal if planting was significantly delayed due to this.
• Barge shipments on the Mississippi River fell to 463k tons from 500k the week before according to the USDA. Barge rates declined as well, and soybean shipments increased by 10.2% from the previous week.

• All three wheat classes are slightly lower this morning but are on track for very large weekly gains. July wheat is currently up over 50 cents on the week, and prices are the highest they have been since July.
• Wheat has had the most bullish news between it, corn, and soybeans which has caused the large amount of short covering. Weather in the US, parts of Europe, and the Black Sea region has been concerning and largely too dry. Increased fighting between Ukraine and Russia have caused the higher prices as well.
• The EU has cut its wheat forecast for 24/25 slightly at 120.2 mmt which is down from 120.8 mmt in last month’s estimate. Wheat exports are seen at 31 mmt with ending stockpiles of 12.2 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading slightly higher in the front months but unchanged for new crop. July futures have been unable to break above the recent high posted during report day on the 28th, but have managed to close above the 50-day moving average over the past three consecutive days.
• Yesterday’s ethanol production report came in below expectations for the second week in a row as ethanol margins have been narrow and gasoline demand has been lower than it was a year ago. The EPA mandating E-15 over the summer should be beneficial to demand.
• For today’s export sales report, trade guesses are in a range between 475k tons and 1,150k tons with an average guess of 758k tons. If sales came out near the average of 750k tons, they would be higher than a week ago and higher than the previous year.

• Soybeans are trading lower this morning as they correct from a very strong three day rally that saw July futures gaining over 30 cents. Prices began to falter at the 40 and 50-day moving averages yesterday as they seem to be acting as resistance. Soybean meal is trading higher while soybean oil is slightly lower.
• Brazilian soybean exports are seen reaching 13.48 million tons for the month of April which compares to a forecast of 13.74 million tons the previous week. The strengthening of their currency, the real, makes importing Brazilian beans more expensive and could cause exports to slow slightly.
• Today’s export sales for soybeans is not expected to be very strong with the trade range between 350k and 900k tons with an average guess of 638k. There have been no flash sales reported last week or this week in soybeans. 

• All three classes of wheat are trading higher this morning with Chicago wheat leading the way higher. The rally in wheat has likely driven the higher prices in corn and soybeans, and July wheat is now trading above the 100-day moving average, is near the 200-day, and is at the highest levels since the beginning of the year.
• Over the weekend, Russia escalated attacks on Ukrainian port facilities while Ukraine hit Russian oil refineries. Typically in the past, traders would sell off rallies that stemmed from activity in the Black Sea, but this in combination with a lower forecast for Russian wheat production seems to have caused to begin short covering in earnest.
• Estimates for today’s export sales report in wheat are between 0 and 500k tons with an average guess of 248k tons. Last week, 129k were reported, and this compares with 358k tons reported sold last year at this time. 

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading lower this morning after a three day rally which has seen the July contract gain 16-1/4 cents since Friday. Prices are currently meeting some resistance at the upper Bollinger Band. The funds have been short covering their near record position which has been the main driver of the rally.
• A large weather system is forecast to bring between 1 and 3 inches of rain to the Corn Belt which could delay planting progress but will help areas with poor soil moisture levels.
• In Brazil, the wet season is essentially over just as the soybean harvest wraps up. The second crop corn there will largely need to rely on its reserves of subsoil moisture. Argentina’s corn crop has been damaged by disease carrying insects, but the extent of the damage is not known yet.

• Soybeans are trading slightly lower this morning but as in corn, have rallied for three consecutive days for a total of 33 cents in gains in the July contract. Prices have met some resistance at the 50-day moving average, and a solid close above that level would be friendly.
• Soybean meal is trading higher this morning and has been trending higher since the beginning of the month, but soybean oil is lower as it follows lower palm oil. The gains in soybeans combined with the losses in bean oil have caused crush margins to narrow.
• In South America, the Brazilian real has begun to rebound and Brazilian basis levels have moved higher which makes Brazilian soybeans more expensive to the rest of the world. While the US is still not competitive with Brazil, it could push some export business to the US.

• All three wheat contracts are trading lower this morning with July Chicago wheat breaking above the 100-day moving average for the first time since January. Chicago wheat has rallied by a whopping 39-3/4 cents over the past three days.
• While short covering by funds has driven this rally in wheat, an escalation between Russia and Ukraine followed by the US approving a $61 billion aid package for Ukraine likely has traders nervous. In addition, there have been some concerns over Russia’s estimated wheat production with the weather too dry.
•  As Russia and the Black Sea region see weather concerns, there has als0 been a downgrade in winter wheat crop ratings in the US as a result of dry weather. Global weather concerns are another factor in the recent rally.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.