Corn is trading higher and at the upper end of its near six cent range in the December contract this morning as it recovers some of its losses from yesterday.
The USDA released its weekly crop progress report yesterday afternoon, which showed the corn crop’s good to excellent condition unchanged at 68% from last week and compares to 57% G/E from last year. 41% of the crop is silking versus the 5-year average of 32%.
US export and domestic basis remains firm as processors and exporters reach for supplies to keep their pipelines full. Weekly export inspections were 42 mb and are 31% ahead of last year’s pace. This continues to support the front end of the corn market as September corn gains on December.
Funds were active sellers in yesterday’s market action, adding an estimated 14,000 corn futures contracts to their record short position. They are now estimated to be net short 375,000 contracts.
The soybean market is firm this morning as traders cover some short positions following yesterday’s sharp selloff. Soybean meal is only slightly higher, while bean oil is moderately higher.
The USDA reported in its weekly crop progress report, that the soybean crop’s good to excellent rating remained steady at 68% from last week and compares to 55% G/E last year. 51% of the crop is blooming versus the 5-year average of 44%.
The NOPA crush report showed 175.6 mb of soybeans were crushed in June, below expectations of 178 mb, but still above last year’s 165 mb. Soybean oil stocks also came in below expectations at 1.622 billion pounds, which has given support to soybean oil.
Funds were active in the soybean market yesterday, selling an estimated 11,000 soybean contracts. Managed funds are now estimated to be short 183,000 contracts.
All three classes of wheat are showing small gains across most contracts as prices attempt to recover from yesterday’s lower trade and Friday’s bearish supply outlook.
The USDA showed in yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report that winter wheat harvest has maintained its quick pace and is now 71% complete, 9% ahead of the 5-year average of 62%. The spring wheat crop condition gained 2% in the good to excellent categories to 77%, from last week’s 75%, with 76% of the crop headed.
Black Sea export prices remain the cheapest on the world market with Russian prices not far behind, as they have reportedly fallen to $218 per mt FOB, which continues to weigh on prices. Global demand for the August time frame remains weak.
Like corn and soybeans, managed funds were active sellers in Chicago wheat in yesterday’s trade, selling an estimated 6,000 contracts, and brings their estimated net short position to 85,000 contracts.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The corn market is trading lower this morning with carryover weakness from soybeans and wheat, giving up the gains from Friday’s bullish USDA WASDE report that put old crop ending stocks well below trade estimates.
In Friday’s WASDE report, the USDA surprised the market by lowering old crop ending stocks for the 23/24 crop year to 1.877 billion bushels from June’s estimate of 2.022 bb. The unexpected decrease was due to an increase in export demand and higher feed and residual use.
The lower 23/24 ending stocks numbers carried over to the 24/25 new crop ending stocks, which came in at 2.097 bb, well below the 2.312 bb that was expected. 24/25 corn production was increased as expected with no change to yield with the additional acres from the June 28 Acreage report.
The USDA made a minor adjustment to Argentina’s corn production estimate, lowering it by 1 mmt to 52 mmt from last month’s estimate. Meanwhile, the projection for Brazil remained unchanged at 122 mmt, which is higher than Conab’s latest estimate of 115.86 mmt.
Friday the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released its Commitment of Traders report, showing that as of Tuesday, July 9 managed funds increased their net short position by 17,445 contracts. This brought their total net short position to a record 353,983 contracts.
Soybeans are trading lower this morning following a relatively neutral WASDE report on Friday. Additional weakness this morning may be coming from lower meal prices and sharply lower soybean oil.
Friday’s WASDE report was favorable for corn but neutral for soybeans. Old crop ending stocks came in at 345 million bushels, 5 mb below last month and towards the lower end of expectations. US production for 24/25 was slightly lowered from last month’s estimate to 4.435 bb, and slightly below trade expectations. Yields remained unchanged at 52.0 bpa, while new crop ending stocks were pegged at 435 mb, relatively in line with expectations.
The USDA’s report left Brazilian soybean production unchanged at 153 mmt, significantly higher than CONAB’s estimate of 147.34 mmt. Though it did slightly lower its estimate for Argentina’s soybean crop to 49.5 mmt, down from last month’s 50 mmt.
Friday the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released its Commitment of Traders report, showing that as of Tuesday, July 9 managed funds increased their net short soybean position by 31,679 contracts. This brought their total net short soybean position to 172,605 contracts.
This morning’s price action could be a knee jerk reaction to the assassination attempt on former President Trump, as many believe the odds of his re-election have greatly increased, potentially bringing with it more strained trade relations with the world’s largest soybean importer, China.
The wheat complex is trading lower this morning across all three classes, with Chicago leading the way, as it follows through on Friday’s bearish USDA data.
The USDA increased wheat production to a bearish 2.008 billion bushels, up from 1.875 in June and the highest in eight years. Old crop carryout was increased from 688 mb to 702 mb, while the 24/25 ending stocks went from 758 mb to 856 mb.
Global 23/24 wheat carryout increased from 259.6 mmt to 261.0 mmt, and the 24/25 season went from 252.3 mmt on the June report to 257.2 mmt.
Friday the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released its Commitment of Traders report, showing that as of Tuesday, July 9 managed funds reduced their net short Chicago wheat position by 4,837 contracts. This brought their total net short position to 69,137 contracts.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower to start the day giving up most of yesterday’s gains as trade anticipates today’s WASDE report. While most of the bearishness for today’s report is likely priced in, the report could hold some surprises.
Yesterday’s export sales report was on the soft side again with 21.2 mb of old crop corn sold, 4.6 mb of new crop, and shipments at 43.6 mb. China was the top buyer, but the general lack of good demand has been the biggest factor for prices.
Yesterday, CONAB revised its estimates for the Brazilian corn crop and increased it to 115.86 mmt which compared to last week’s guess of 114.14 mmt. The USDA will likely keep their estimate above CONAB’s today as it has done all season.
Soybeans are trading lower this morning and have given up most of yesterday’s gains similar to corn. With favorable weather in the forecast, there is not enough bullish news to stop funds from continuing to sell across the ag complex. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower as well.
Today at 11am central, the USDA will release its WASDE report and expectations are for old crop ending stocks to increase slightly while new crop is expected to fall a bit due to lower acreage. Brazil’s soybean production is expected to be lowered as well.
Yesterday’s export sales report was on the low end of trade estimates with 7.6 mb of old crop sold, 7 mb of new crop, and shipments soft at 9.8 mb. China made its first purchase of new crop soybeans this week, but they will need to purchase more to move the market in a significant way.
All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with KC wheat leading the way lower as trade anticipates a bearish USDA report today.
Expectations for today’s report are for total wheat production to rise by 37 mb and for ending stocks to rise by 29 mb to 787 mb on June 30, 2025. While it is expected to be bearish, much of it could be priced in at this point.
The Argentinian wheat forecast has been cut by 2.4% with the Rosario exchange citing less acreage than anticipated. Production is estimated at 20.5 mmt down from last month’s estimate of 21 mmt.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher this morning as prices attempt to stabilize after Monday’s poor start to the week and the subsequent selling following.
The remnants of Hurricane Beryl have moved on out of the Corn Belt and the forecast is now calling for above normal temperatures that should be beneficial to drying out fields while not harming the crop.
According to a Bloomberg survey, analysts are forecasting Brazilian corn production higher at 115.48 mmt which would compare with CONAB’s last estimate of 114.14 mmt. CONAB will release its updated July numbers at 9am central.
Soybeans are trading higher this morning after 3 consecutively lower closes that have brought new crop soybean prices below the $11 mark. August is back to being bull spread against the November contracts. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher as well.
On Friday, the USDA will release its WASDE report and expectations are for old crop ending stocks to increase slightly while new crop is expected to fall a bit due to lower acreage. Brazil’s soybean production is expected to be lowered as well.
CONAB previously estimated Brazilian soybean production at 147.35 mmt but will update that number today, and estimates are for that number to rise slightly to 147.89 mmt.
All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with KC wheat leading the way as the entire ag complex appears to be trying to stabilize after selling off so sharply this week.
Ukrainian grain exports are expected to rise by over 1 mmt this marketing year with 1.13 mmt of grain already exported in the season that started July 1. This is a 62% increase over the 698k tons exported at this same time last year.
Russian FOB wheat prices are showing no signs of production issues after dry weather stretches’ and two spring frost events. The IGC said Russia’s FOB wheat prices fell $7 a metric ton in the week ending July 5, to $219 a metric ton, cheaper than all major competitors, except Ukraine.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly lower this morning after yesterday’s overall quiet session. After a warmer and drier stretch for the Corn Belt over the next seven days, temperature are expected to turn more seasonal to end next week.
Rain totals to start the week in Corn Belt areas east of the Mississippi river from Hurricane Beryl were slightly less than expected but still highly beneficial ahead of pollination.
With the new crop corn carryout picture (~2.3 bb) nearly identical to early July of 2023, the funds have taken a drastically different position in the corn market here in 2024. The funds have likely added to their net short position of over 340,000 contracts to start this week compared to last year in July when they were holding about a 50,000 contract short position.
Soybeans are trading lower this morning once again. Remnants of Hurricane Beryl are exiting the eastern Midwest today. The upcoming week of weather looks warmer and drier for all compared to recent weeks.
Lack of new crop soybean exports sales on the books for the upcoming 2024/25 marketing year continue to pressure soybean futures. U.S. soybeans for export are cheaper than Brazilian soybeans for export during the months of October through December currently, but buyers have yet to show up for the most part.
The broader U.S. economy will be watching CPI and PPI numbers later this week. Fed Chairman Powell spoke Tuesday to the Senate and will speak to the House Wednesday. His comments suggest that a rate cut could still occur this year.
Wheat is mostly lower once again this morning following corn and soybean prices. Spring wheat acres in the U.S. may be stressed in the upcoming week with hot and dry conditions, this should however assist in winter wheat harvest across the U.S.
U.S. wheat export sales for the 2024/25 marketing year are off to a strong start totaling just over 250 million bushels, up 49% from this time a year ago.
Russian FOB wheat prices are showing no signs of production issues after dry weather stretches’ and two spring frost events. The IGC said Russia’s FOB wheat prices fell $7 a metric ton in the week ending July 5, to $219 a metric ton, cheaper than all major competitors, except Ukraine.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly lower this morning after losing over 17 cents in yesterday’s trade in the September contract due to better weather forecasts for the eastern Corn Belt. Yesterday’s Crop Progress was also slightly bearish.
Yesterday’s report showed the good to excellent rating in corn increasing by 1 point to 68% which compares to 55% at this time a year ago. 24% of the crop is silking which compares to 11% a week ago and 18% a year ago, and 3% is doughing which is above the 2% last year at this time.
The CFTC report was released yesterday due to the holiday delay, and it showed that as of July 2, funds sold 58,872 contracts of corn which brought their net short position to a near record 336,538 contracts.
Soybeans are trading lower this morning apart from the front month and are being further bull spread as demand for on hand cash soybeans grows, but traders expect a large crop this fall. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower this morning.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress Report showed soybean crop ratings increasing a point to 68% good to excellent which compares to 50% last year. There were significant improvements in Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio. 34% of the crop is blooming which compares to the average of 28% and 9% are setting pods which compares to the average of 5%.
As of July 2, funds were reported to have added 11,263 contracts of soybeans to their net short position which increased it to 140,926 contracts.
Wheat is faring slightly better than corn and soybeans this morning with small gains in all three classes but has been unable to hold last weeks gains as crop conditions improve and harvest accelerates.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress Report showed winter wheat at 63% harvested which compares to 54% a week ago and the average of 52%. Spring wheat saw an improvement in good to excellent ratings up to 75% which compares to 72% a week ago and just 47% a year ago. 59% of the crop is headed which compares to 38% a week ago and the average of 60%.
As of July 2, funds were sellers of 3,487 contracts of Chicago wheat bringing their net short position to 73,974 contracts and were sellers of 6,031 contracts of KC wheat bringing that short position to 43,103 contracts.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower this morning with the September contract hovering just above 4 dollars as forecasts for the week have begun to include rainfall in the eastern Corn Belt that will be helped by the aftermath of Hurricane Beryl.
The USDA’s supply and demand report is upcoming, and the recent stocks data that showed a larger amount of corn on hand will be factored into this report and may be bearish.
The CFTC report will be released this afternoon rather than last Friday due to the holiday, and it is possible that trade will have seen funds as less aggressive sellers as September corn posted a slight gain on the week.
Soybeans are trading sharply lower to start the week as pressure from rainfall expected in the eastern Belt affects beans as well as corn. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower this morning.
There have been no deliveries so far this month against the July soybean contract while domestic crush demand remains firm. In addition, the July August soybean spread has moved to its highs at 23 cents.
In China, the US Ag attaché sees Chinese imports for 24/25 at 103 mmt. China is expected to produce 19.6 mmt based on planted area which is relatively low. The soybean import estimate is unchanged from 23/24.
All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with KC wheat leading the way lower. Pressuring the market are better winter wheat yields than expected in the US and Russian production estimates beginning to rise again.
The export inspections report will be released at 10am this morning and so far, wheat exports have been moving at a good pace. Year to date, inspections are 23.7% ahead of last year.
Ukraine has reportedly harvested 1.62 mmt of wheat as of July 5 and was harvested over 482,200 hectares of land according to the Agriculture Ministry. The country had only harvested 172,000 mt of wheat last year at this time.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
On Wednesday, corn closed lower as pressure has continued following last Friday’s bearish stocks and acreage report. The 4th of July holiday was rainy across the Midwest which will be of some benefit but also added to flooding issues in the northwest.
US ethanol stocks rose by 0.7% to 23.594m bbl according to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report, and analysts were expecting 23.348m bbl. Plant production was at 1.064m barrels per day compared to average trade guesses of 1.034m.
Chinese corn imports are expected to lag behind the USDA’s estimates at only 20 mmt for the 24/25 marketing year that begins in October. This is 3 mmt below the USDA’s official guess.
Soybeans closed higher on Wednesday and have been moving slightly higher since Friday’s report which saw a reduction in expected planted bean acres. Improving crush margins have also been supportive.
Soybean crush demand has been a bright spot for the soybean market this year with the slow export pace. The USDA reported in the most recent Census crush report that 192 mb of beans were crushed in the month of May, up 3.5% from last year, with soybean oil stocks down 8.4% from a year ago.
The low soybean oil stocks suggest strong soybean oil demand for biodiesel/renewable diesel production. Dec Board crush margins have risen back over a 120 cents/bu, largely on the strength of soybean oil.
Wheat closed lower on Wednesday and is on track for a lower weekly close, but French milling wheat was higher by 1% overnight which could provide support to US markets this morning when the market opens at 8:30 am.
There is market talk of a smaller French wheat crop with quality issues, but this may be balanced by better crop prospects for Eastern Europe.
After some scares that the Russian wheat crop was significantly reduced by dryness and frost, SovEcon increased its estimates back higher to 84.1 mmt from 80.7 mmt on Wednesday citing higher early yields. Russian FOB wheat prices remain the most competitive.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading a little lower this morning as it continues to struggle from a large supply picture with prospects of another large crop.
The corn market continues to balance the bullish pull of a strong basis and slow farmer selling with the bearish influence of large on farm supplies that will likely come to market in the coming weeks.
Later today the EIA will release its weekly ethanol production numbers for the week ending June 28. Analysts estimate production to fall from the previous week to 1.034 million barrels/day, with ethanol stocks falling slightly to 23.348 million barrels.
Managed funds are estimated to have bought 3,000 contracts of corn yesterday, which brings their current position to an estimated 301,000 short contracts.
Soybeans are quietly trading higher this morning along with both meal and oil. While soybeans are higher, they are trading an inside day where they have yet to break out above yesterday’s high.
The US Brazilian Ag Attache lowered its forecast for Brazil’s soybean crop to 150 mmt, which is 3 mmt lower than the current official USDA estimate, yet still above Conab’s 147 mmt projection.
Soybean crush demand has been a bright spot for the soybean market this year with the slow export pace. The USDA reported in the most recent Census crush report that 192 mb of beans were crushed in the month of May, up 3.5% from last year, with soybean oil stocks down 8.4% from a year ago.
The low soybean oil stocks suggest strong soybean oil demand for biodiesel/renewable diesel production. Dec Board crush margins have risen back over a 120 cents/bu, largely on the strength of soybean oil.
It’s estimated that Managed funds bought 3,000 contracts of soybeans in yesterday’s trade, bringing their estimated net short position to 118,000 contracts.
The wheat complex is trading mixed this morning, with Chicago contracts showing strength versus slightly weaker KC and Minneapolis contracts, as the trade continues to balance a tight US SRW supply picture with adequate HRW stocks and the prospect of a big spring wheat crop.
With the ongoing US wheat harvest, farmers remain good sellers, which adds resistance to prices and may keep a lid on rallies.
There is market talk of a smaller French wheat crop with quality issues, but this may be balanced by better crop prospects for Eastern Europe.
Yesterday, Managed funds sold an estimated 4,000 contracts of Chicago wheat, bringing their estimated net short to 69,000 contracts.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher this morning after the Crop Progress Report was released yesterday afternoon and showed a decline in crop ratings. Areas in the northwest Belt also received more rains and are under flood advisories again.
Yesterday’s crop progress saw the good to excellent rating for the corn crop fall 2 points to 67% which was also below the trade estimate. 11% of the crop is now silking which compares to 4% last week and 7% a year ago.
Heavy rains are expected to fall in Iowa which is already under a flood watch and Missouri this week, and the USDA said that 53% of Minnesota and 52% of Wisconsin are experiencing surplus topsoil moisture, so crop conditions are very variable and production will be hard to project.
Soybeans are trading higher this morning for a second consecutive day as bullish sentiment continues after the release of the acreage report which shows significantly less soybean acres. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher as well this morning.
Yesterday’s crop progress was mostly neutral for soybeans showing no change in the good to excellent rating while trade was looking for a 1 point drop. 20% of the crop is blooming which is on par with a year ago, and 3% of the crop is blooming, also the same pace as last year.
Domestic crush demand has been very firm and has been a supportive factor with export demand so slow. 192 mb of soybeans were crushed in May which is higher than a year ago. Profitable crush margins are supporting the demand.
All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning as a lack of export demand weighs on prices with the world still looking to Russia to meet its feed needs. The ongoing winter wheat harvest is adding pressure as well.
Yesterday’s crop progress showed winter wheat as 54% harvested and the crop rated 51% good to excellent which is down 1 point from last week, but is up significantly from last year’s 40%.
In spring wheat, the crop is called 72% good to excellent which was above trade estimates and up 1 point from last week. 38% of the crop is headed which compares to 18% last week.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
