Corn is trading lower this morning after prices rebounded yesterday on a more neutral WASDE report for corn than expected, but producers have been quick to sell any rallies. Yesterday, December futures made a new contract low.
Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its Crop Progress report which showed the good to excellent rating unchanged in corn at 67%. 94% of the crop is silking which compares to 88% a week ago and is on par with the 5-year average of 94%. 60% is in the dough stage and 18% is dented.
Yesterday’s WASDE report saw an increase in the national yield estimate to 183.1 bpa which was well above the average trade guess of 182.2 and above last month’s guess of 181.0. Harvested acreage was lowered by 800,000 acres due to flooding, but the production estimate and new crop ending stocks were increased.
Soybeans are continuing their slide lower this morning after yesterday’s USDA report which was bearish for soybeans. The November contract came within 2 cents of taking out the life of contract low this morning at $9.64. Both soybean meal and oil are lower as well.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the good to excellent rating in soybeans unchanged at 68%, but is 9% higher than the rating at this time last year. 91% of the crop is blooming which compares to 86% last week and the 5-year average of 90%, and 72% of the crop is setting pods.
Yesterday’s WASDE report was bearish for soybean on nearly all fronts. The yield was raised to 53.2 bpa from 52.0 last month and was above the average trade guess. Acreage was increased, production estimates rose, and new crop ending stocks were increased to 560 mb from 435 mb last month. Argentinian production was lowered slightly, but Brazilian production was unchanged.
All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with Chicago wheat leading the way lower. Prices were lower yesterday as well despite a neutral to slightly friendly WASDE report.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed spring wheat crop ratings falling to 72% good to excellent from 74% last week. 18% of the spring wheat crop has been harvested which compares to 6% last week and the 5-year average of 21%. The winter wheat harvest is 93% complete which compares to 88% last week and the 5-year average of 91%.
Yesterday’s WASDE report showed all wheat production falling due to smaller than expected spring wheat acreage. As a result, new crop ending stock estimates were lowered to 828 mb from 856 mb last month.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower this morning with both the September and December contracts below 4 dollars. Trade is expecting a bearish USDA report at 11am central with the main concern being an increase in yield estimates.
In Monday’s WASDE report, traders will be looking for changes in acreage and in yield. The general thought is that acres will be lowered due to the flooding in the northwest Corn Belt, but yield is expected to come in at a record high 182.1 bpa, this would be up 1.1 bpa from last month.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back 52,551 contracts of corn as of August 6 which leaves them net short 242,545 contracts. Despite that funds have been buying contracts back for the past 4 weeks straight, prices have declined, which points to commercial selling.
Soybeans are trading lower this morning with both September and December contracts now below the 10-dollar mark. As in corn, trade is expecting a bearish USDA report. Soybean meal is trading higher while soybean meal is lower to start the day.
In Argentina, the strike at soybean processing plants has entered its 7th day, and 36 ships which were set to transport the recently crushed soybean meal and oil are delayed. This is supportive to US meal and oil.
Monday’s WASDE report is expected to show an increase in the soybean yield to 52.5 bpa with production estimates up 34 mb from July to 4.469 bb. The average carryout estimate for 24/25 is 472 mb which is up 22 mb from July, if realized this will be the highest carryout estimate in five years.Â
All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning, but prices remain off their contract lows, and Chicago wheat posted a higher close on the week last Friday. Spring wheat ended the week lower as the eastern portion of the crop nears harvest with production expected to be large.
Estimates for wheat in Monday’s WASDE report have all wheat production increasing from last month to 2,017, and all winter wheat increasing to 1,346 from last month. Wheat ending stocks for 24/25 are estimated at 859 mb which would be up slightly from last month’s 856 mb. World wheat ending stocks are expected to be mostly unchanged at 257.0 mmt.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back 6,284 contracts of wheat which leaves them net short 71,332 contracts. This position has not changed much since the end of July.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly higher this morning, front month corn is currently down about a nickel on the week, barring a push sharply higher today this will be the sixth week in the last eight corn has closed lower.Â
Mexico was once again named the largest buyer of old-crop corn. 51.3 million bushels of corn total were shipped last week, this is 15.3 million bushels more than needed each week to reach the USDA’s export estimate for the marketing year than ends in August.Â
In Monday’s WASDE report, traders will be looking for changes in acreage and in yield. The general thought is that acres will be lowered due to the flooding in the northwest Corn Belt, but yield is expected to come in at a record high 182.1 bpa, this would be up 1.1 bpa from last month. Due to faster acreage reporting compared to past years, this will be the first August WASDE the USDA will incorporate FSA data into their acreage estimate.Â
Soybeans are trading a few cents higher this morning after trading to new contract lows on Thursday. With lack of any extreme heat and adequate moisture in most areas soybean futures have not felt the need to add weather premium back into the market. Weather appears mostly non-threatening into late August.Â
In Argentina a strike by workers at oilseed refineries has slowed production. Should the strike extend past it’s current three days, additional temporary demand for U.S. soybean meal and oil could develop.Â
China was named the top buyer of old and new crop soybeans last week in yesterday’s export sales report. 12.9 million bushels of soybeans were shipped last week, 2.7 million bushels less than the weekly amount needed to reach the USDA’s estimate for the marketing year that ends August 31.Â
Monday’s WASDE report is expected to show an increase in the soybean yield to 52.5 bpa with production estimates up 34 mb from July to 4.469 bb. The average carryout estimate for 24/25 is 472 mb which is up 22 mb from July, if realized this will be the highest carryout estimate in five years.Â
All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning, if futures can hold onto Friday’s gains this will be the second consecutive week of higher closes and look promising of a short-term bottom being in place.Â
Estimates for wheat in Monday’s WASDE report have all wheat production increasing from last month to 2,017, and all winter wheat increasing to 1,346 from last month.
Wheat ending stocks for 24/25 are estimated at 859 mb which would be up slightly from last month’s 856 mb. World wheat ending stocks are expected to be mostly unchanged at 257.0 mmt.
Export sales Thursday morning were reported at the low end of trade expectations totaling 10.1 million bushels. Total sales however remain 34% ahead of last year’s pace.Â
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly lower this morning, but the December contract has been hesitant to drop below the 4-dollar level for long as it remains strong support.Â
Funds have been buying back smaller portions of their net short position over the past three weeks, but prices have not rallied. This is likely due to farmer selling old crop on rallies and the need to make room for the incoming crop.
In Monday’s WASDE report, traders will be looking for changes in acreage and in yield. The general thought is that acres will be lowered due to the flooding, but there were 4 million acres unaccounted for earlier in the season that could pop up. It is expected that yields will increase.
Soybeans are trading lower this morning with the September contract hovering right above the 10-dollar mark which has been very strong support. Yesterday, prices were just 3/4 of a cent away from dipping below that level. Soybean meal is trading higher this morning while soybean oil is lower.
Similar to corn, trade is expecting a large soybean crop which has not done anything to support prices. Domestic demand has been good, but export have been very slow with China not making purchases of new crop in their typical strength. There have been rumors of sales which have not been officially announced.
Monday’s WASDE report is expected to show an increase in the soybean yield to 52.5 bpa with production estimates up 34 mb from July to 4.469 bb. The average carryout estimate for 24.25 is 472 mb which is up 22 mb from July.
All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning, but yesterday’s lower close broke the streak of higher closes that had been ongoing for 5 days. Production concerns in Europe and the Black Sea region may be helping prices move higher.
Estimates for wheat in Monday’s WASDE report have all wheat production increasing from last month to 2,017, and all winter wheat increasing to 1,346 from last month.
Wheat ending stocks for 24/25 are estimated at 859 mb which would be up slightly from last month’s 856 mb. World wheat ending stocks are expected to be mostly unchanged at 257.0 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower to start the day, but has moved higher from its earlier morning lows which saw prices fall near the 4 dollar mark again. Higher prices over the past two days provided a small opportunity for farmer selling.
Early estimates for the WASDE report which will be released on Monday the 12th have the corn yield rising to 182.2 bpa which would compare to last months estimate of 181.0 bpa. Production is estimated at 151.124 mmt which would be slightly higher than last month’s 151 mmt.
Estimates for the Argentinian corn crop are expected to fall to 51.0 mmt which would compare to last months 52.0 mmt. Brazilian corn is estimated at 121.5 mmt which would be slightly lower than last month’s 122.0. These estimates remain well above CONAB’s.
Soybeans are trading lower this morning with the September contract making new lows and getting dangerously close to breaking the 10 dollar level. The pressure continues as a result of high yields expected. Soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is higher.
Estimates for the WASDE report which will be released on Monday have the average corn yield improving to 52.5 bpa which would be up from last month’s 52.0 bpa. Production is estimated to be higher as well from last month.
In South America, estimates for Monday’s report show the Argentinian soy crop falling by just 0.1 to 49.6 mmt. Brazilian soybean production is expected to fall by 1.2 mmt to 151.8 mmt, still above CONAB’s estimate.
All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning despite the sell-off in both corn and soybeans. The US Dollar has fallen sharply since last week which may be benefitting wheat. There are also weather concerns in Europe, the western US, and the Canadian Prairies.
Estimates for wheat in Monday’s WASDE report have all wheat production increasing from last month to 2,017, and all winter wheat increasing to 1,346 from last month.
Wheat ending stocks for 24/25 are estimated at 859 mb which would be up slightly from last month’s 856 mb. World wheat ending stocks are expected to be mostly unchanged at 257.0 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is lower to start the day after yesterday’s trade that saw prices lower before reversing and ending the day higher. Yesterday’s stock market selloff ended up benefitting grains as money left equities and funds took the opportunity to cover shorts.
Yesterday’s export inspections in corn of 1,213k tons put total inspections for 23/24 up 36% from the previous year. This also compares to 1,070k the previous week and just 388k a year ago.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress Report showed corn good to excellent ratings falling by 1 point from last week to 67% and compares to 57% a year ago. 88% of the crop is silking, 7% is dented, and 46% is doughing.Â
Soybeans are trading lower this morning and so far have given back all of yesterday’s gains that were a result of short covering. The stock market seems to be recovering slightly today after overdoing it yesterday which could put the focus back on good crop ratings and weather.
Yesterday’s export inspections in soybeans of 261k tons were on the lighter side and have total inspections for 23/24 down 15% from the previous year. This number compares to 409k tons last week and 291k a year ago.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress showed soybean ratings improving by 1 point to 68% good to excellent despite the recent dryness. 59% of the crop is setting pods which compares to 44% last week and 86% of the crop is blooming which compares to 77% last week.
All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning, but futures have been trending higher overall since making their contract low on July 29. Yesterday, wheat was pressured by the stock market and did not react very strongly to the sharp decline in the US Dollar.
Yesterday’s export inspections for wheat came in at 441k tons and put total wheat inspections for 24/25 up 16% from the previous year. This compares to 454k tons the previous week and 319k tons a year ago.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress showed spring wheat good to excellent ratings unchanged at 74% and the crop 6% harvested which is slightly below the 5-year average of 9%. 97% of the spring wheat crop is headed. In winter wheat, 88% of the crop is harvested which compares to 82% last week and the 5-year average of 86%.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower this morning after losing over 6 cents last week as a result of overall good crop conditions. This morning, December futures are back below the 4-dollar mark. On Friday, prices were higher as a result of fund short covering.
As of this writing, the Dow is down 830 points which is over 2.10% as the stock market continues its sharp downturn with worries about recession back at the forefront. The move in equities is spilling into energies and therefore grains.
Friday’s CFTC report showed that as of July 30, funds bought back 23,453 contracts of corn which reduced their net short position to 295,096 contracts. This is the third week in a row that they have bought contracts back, but prices have moved lower.
Soybeans are trading lower this morning with the September contract now just 8 cents away from breaking below 10 dollars. Soybean meal is trading lower, and soybean oil is being pulled lower as a result of the lower stock market and crude prices.
Weather is mixed with Illinois and Iowa having turned slightly drier over the next 7 days, but temperatures are expected to be cooler which should offset the lack of rain. The northwestern Plains continue to receive too much rain.
Friday’s CFTC report showed that as of July 30, funds were sellers of 14,932 contracts of soybeans which increased their net short position to 178,591 contracts.
All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning along with the rest of the grain complex, and Chicago wheat is leading the way lower. Prices remain about 13 cents off their contract lows.
The winter wheat harvest in the US has been going well in South Dakota, but other northwestern states are dealing with crops that are stressed by a lack of rain. The near-term forecast for the northwestern Plains is expected to be dry over the next 7 days which is good for winter wheat harvest but could stress the spring wheat crop.Â
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds selling 2,432 contracts of Chicago wheat which increased their net short position to 77,616 contracts. In KC wheat, they bought back 674 contracts which brings their net short position to 40,192 contracts.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly higher this morning which has put the December contract back above the $4.00 mark. The forecast for the Central Corn Belt has turned slightly drier over the next 7 days which may be providing support.
Overall, weather has been supportive and crop conditions in Illinois and Indiana are mostly good to excellent. A StoneX survey is forecasting a national average of 182.3 bpa in corn and total production of 15.207.
Over the past three days, funds are estimated to have sold an additional 23,000 contracts of corn which would nearly wipe out all of the contracts they bought back as of July 23.
Soybeans are trading higher to start the day but are still on track for around an 18 cent loss on the week at this point. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher, and processor margins have reached their highest levels in eight months.Â
First notice day for August soybeans was Wednesday and there were 37 deliveries reported this morning which now makes a total of 122. For soybean oil, there were 4 deliveries this morning which makes a total of 955 contracts delivered against the August contract.
As in corn, crop conditions in soybeans have been good with the most recent rating at 67% good to excellent for all soybeans. Yesterday, StoneX estimated the national soybean yield at 52.6 bpa with total production at 4.483 billion.
All three wheat classes are trading slightly lower this morning with prices hovering just above recent contract lows. Yesterday marked the second consecutively higher close this week in wheat as prices look for a bottom.
While yesterday’s export sales report was not great, inspections have been good, and the overall program is way above last year’s levels. Yesterday, Indonesia was the top buyer of wheat at 77k tons.
The winter wheat harvest in the US has been going well in South Dakota, but other northwestern states are dealing with crops that are stressed by a lack of rain. The near-term forecast for the northwestern Plains is expected to be dry over the next 7 days which is good for winter wheat harvest but could stress the spring wheat crop.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower this morning for the third consecutive day. Yesterday, December corn closed below $4.00 which was a critical technical point. The next few days are expected to be hot and dry, but trade is not worried about that impacting yields.
According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report, ethanol stocks rose by 1.1% to 29.973m bbl where analysts were expecting 23.764. Plant production was at 1.109m b/d which compared to a survey average of 1.086m.
Estimates for today’s export sales report have corn exports in a range between 750k and 1,400k tons with an average guess of 1,041k tons. This would compare to 1,077k tons a week ago.
Soybeans have begun the day trading lower again as weather remains mostly favorable and doesn’t give funds any reason to buy back their short positions in a meaningful way. Since Monday, they are estimated to have sold an additional 20,000 contracts. Soybean meal is higher while soybean oil is lower.
First notice day for August soybeans was yesterday and there were 41 deliveries reported this morning which now makes a total of 85. For soybean oil, there were 15 deliveries this morning which makes a total of 951 contracts delivered against the August contract.
Estimates for today’s export sales report have soybeans in a range between 400k and 1,200k tons with an average guess of 784k tons. This would compare to last week’s 918k tons.
All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with the September Chicago contract about 15 cents off its contract lows. There is some concern that spring wheat in the western US have been impacted by the hot and dry weather pattern.
The wheat market continues to battle between talk of a smaller French wheat crop with quality issues, lower Russian supplies and rising export prices, and concerns regarding a slowing world economy with lower demand.
Estimates for today’s export sales report have wheat sales in a range between 275k and 600k tons with an average guess of 409k. This would compare to last week’s 309k.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The corn market is trading mostly unchanged this morning as it tries to recover from yesterday’s losses and hold recent lows while being caught between higher soybeans and lower wheat.
Today the EIA will release its weekly ethanol production report. The estimate range for production in the week ending July 26, is between 1.080 and 1.090 million barrels per day, versus 1.095 million the previous week.
The corn market continues to see overhead resistance and selling on ideas of higher US supplies. In concert with these thoughts, the September/December spread has widened out to a 16-cent carry suggesting there is ample supply in the near term.
Ukraine’s corn export prices have been on the rise and are now higher than those from the US and South America, suggesting they are out of the export market.
Managed funds were active sellers in yesterday’s trade, selling an estimated 11,000 corn futures contracts, bringing their estimated net short position to 328,000 contracts.
The soybeans are recovering from yesterday’s losses and trading higher across the board this morning, led by the August contract. Both soybean meal and oil are also higher and lending support to soybeans.
Today is First Notice Day, when holders of long August futures contracts are notified of delivery. Deliveries were on the light side, lending support to the August contracts, with 44 soybean deliveries, zero meal, and 986 soybean oil.
Spot board crush margins are near season highs around 206 cents (August), implying strong domestic demand for soybeans, which is attempting to offset a lower export demand outlook.
Managed funds were active in the soybean market yesterday, selling an estimated 7,000 soybean futures contracts. This activity brought their estimated net short position in soybeans to 189,000 contracts.
The wheat complex is trading lower, though near mid-range, across all three classes as they shrug off overnight lows.
The wheat market continues to battle between talk of a smaller French wheat crop with quality issues, lower Russian supplies and rising export prices, and concerns regarding a slowing world economy with lower demand.
Managed funds remained active in the wheat market yesterday, selling an estimated 2,500 Chicago wheat futures contracts, which brought their estimated short position in Chicago wheat to an estimated 82,000 contracts.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
