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All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading lower this morning as the rally seems to have come to a temporary peak in last week’s trade. Prices are consolidating around the 100-day moving average, but better Brazilian weather and harvest pressure in the US are suppressing a further rally.
• Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed that 64% of the corn crop was rated good to excellent which is unchanged from last week. 87% of the crop is mature which compares to 87% a year ago, and 30% is now harvested.
• In Ukraine, SovEcon has cut the forecast for the 2024 corn crop to 23.5 mmt from 24.6 mmt in its previous forecast citing dry weather. The export forecast for corn was also cut by 1.1 mmt due to lower production.

• Soybeans are trading significantly lower this morning as radar and forecasts continue to show rain falling in Brazil with an emphasis on Mato Grosso which has been extremely dry. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower this morning as well.
• Yesterday’s Crop Progress Report showed that the good to excellent rating in soybeans fell 1 point from last week to 63%, but was in line with the trade estimate. 90% of the crop is dropping leaves which compares to 91% a year ago, and 47% of the crop is now harvested.
• In Brazil, soybean planting is 4.1% complete which compares to 7.8% last year and the 5-year average of 5.5%. In the largest growing state, Mato Grosso, planting is only 2.1% complete which compares to 14% last year at this time. Planting is certainly behind but should pick up pace as weather improves.

• All three wheat classes are trading slightly lower this morning and are nearly unchanged. Wheat has had more supportive fundamental news that corn and soybeans recently with global weather issues.
• Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed that the winter wheat crop is 51% planted which is below the average trade guess and compares to 52% a year ago. 25% of the crop is emerged which is on par with last year’s pace as well as the 5-year average.
• SovEcon has revised the Ukraine 24/25 wheat crop higher to 21.8 mmt and has also raised exports due to strong EU demand. The EU has been too wet and in Australia too dry. The southern plains in the US have been too dry as well.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading slightly lower this morning and is back below its 100-day moving average after trading above it for three days last week. Prices are likely being pressured due to harvest in the US along with improved weather in Brazil.
• In Ukraine, SovEcon has cut the forecast for the 2024 corn crop to 23.5 mmt from 24.6 mmt in its previous forecast citing dry weather. The export forecast for corn was also cut by 1.1 mmt due to lower production.
• In Friday’s CFTC report it was revealed that funds bought back a whopping 63,000 contracts of corn as of October 1 which left them net short 67,699 contracts. In the past three trading days, they are estimated to have bought back an additional 4,000 contracts. 

• Soybeans are trading lower this morning and are primarily pressured by lower soybean meal as soybean oil is slightly higher. Rains have been falling in Brazil and Argentina as forecast which could be bringing more selling pressure.
• In Brazil, soybean planting is 4.1% complete which compares to 7.8% last year and the 5-year average of 5.5%. In the largest growing state, Mato Grosso, planting is only 2.1% complete which compares to 14% last year at this time. Planting is certainly behind but should pick up pace as weather improves.
• Friday’s CFTC report showed that as of October 1, funds bought back 40,092 contracts of soybeans which left them net short 40,092 contracts. In the past three days, funds are estimated to have sold 3,500 contracts.

• All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with Minneapolis leading the way lower. Chicago wheat is trading below its 100-day moving average after failing at its 200-day twice last week. Global weather remains supportive, but the Black Sea region received some needed rains.
• SovEcon has revised the Ukraine 24/25 wheat crop higher to 21.8 mmt and has also raised exports due to strong EU demand. The EU has been too wet and in Australia too dry. The southern plains in the US have been too dry as well.
• Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of 3,516 contracts of Chicago wheat which left them short 22,953 contracts. They bought back 4,676 contracts of KC wheat which left them net short 15,270 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading lower this morning and the December contract has broken back below its 100-day moving average as reports from the field of very good yields come in. Corn has been following moves in wheat very closely and is likely following it lower this morning as well.
• In Argentina, planting of first crop corn is off to a slow pace as a result of extreme dryness in South America. There is rain in the 2-week forecast for Argentina and Brazil, but it needs to materialize or the crop will have problems.
• The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has said that the 24/25 corn planting progress has advanced to just 13.7% from 10.5% the previous week. Planting area was unchanged at 6.3 million hectares.

• Soybeans are trading higher this morning, but prices have been trending lower for the past 4 days as Brazilian weather forecasts get wetter and scattered showers fall in the driest parts of central Brazil. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher as well.
• While Brazilian weather has been a big factor in recent price movement, the dockworker strike was also a negative factor in that it could have slowed soybean exports. Last night, the dockworkers made a deal with their management company and will return to work on East Coast ports today.
• Yesterday’s export sales report was strong for soybeans with 1,445 thousand tons reportedly sold and China a main buyer. This was slightly below last week’s number but still encouraging.

• All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with Chicago wheat leading the way lower and breaking back down below the 100-day moving average after it failed at the 200-day yesterday.
• The move lower today may be more technical as global conditions are still friendly for wheat with weather effecting production. For the week, December Chicago wheat is currently up 13 cents.
• Russian wheat prices after months of very cheap export offers have begun to move slightly higher recently. This is likely a reflection of the ongoing and worsening drought in the Black Sea region that has limited winter wheat planting. 

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading slightly lower to start the day but remains above its 50-day moving average and has traded above that level for the past three days. For the week, December futures have gained 13-1/2 cents as funds continue to exit short positions.
• Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 600k and 1,000k tons with an average guess of 831k tons. This would compare to 535k tons a week ago. Corn exports should not be affected by the port strikes as they leave by barge and not container ship.
• According to the US Department of Energy’s weekly petroleum report, US ethanol stocks fell by 0.3% to 23.459m bbl. Analysts were expecting 23.367, and plant production was slightly higher than expected at 1.015m b/d.

• Soybeans are trading lower this morning and have trended slightly lower over the past few days as weather forecasts have become more conclusive that Brazil will receive rain over the next two weeks that will improve conditions for planting. Both soybean meal and oil are lower as well.
• Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 1,000k and 1,600k tons with an average guess of 1,319k tons. This would compare to last week’s 1,575k.
• The port strike along the East coast of the US is ongoing and while effects have not been really been apparent yet, a week of this strike would see significant bottlenecks in Western ports that could impact grain exports.

• All three wheat classes are trading lower to start the day but the December Chicago contract is meeting some resistance at the 200-day moving average again today after failing at that level yesterday. Adverse global weather has been supportive to the market recently.
• Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 150k and 450k tons with an average guess of 297k tons. This would compare to last weeks 169k tons.
• Russian wheat prices after months of very cheap export offers have begun to move slightly higher recently. This is likely a reflection of the ongoing and worsening drought in the Black Sea region that has limited winter wheat planting.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn futures are higher this morning yet again despite likely strong harvest pressure in the coming week. Strong exports and impressive domestic demand continue to dominate the headlines for corn. 
• The USDA released the Grain Crushings report yesterday afternoon which showed 472.7 mb of corn was used for ethanol production in August, this was up from 441.7 mb last August. July ethanol grind was revised higher by 10.4 mb as well. 
• December corn futures are trading above their 100-day moving average this morning. December corn has not had consecutive daily closes above the 100-day since late May. 
• Oil prices have been on the move higher this week after the missile attack on Israel by Iran, this rally in energy is helping to provide support to corn and soybeans. 

• Soybeans are trading slightly lower this morning as soybean meal prices have reversed sharply lower off of their overnight highs. 
• Soybeans have bounced around resistance levels near $10.60 November futures for the last four sessions. Excellent harvest weather here in the US and anticipated rains in northern Brazil starting next week have applied pressure to soybeans this week. 
• Yesterday’s USDA Grain Crushing report showed that 168 mb of soybeans were crushed in the month of August. This was down from 193 mb in July but right in line with expectations. It is typical to see as slow down in crush during August as maintenance at crush facilities is conducted ahead of the harvest rush. 

• All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with both the winter wheats testing major upside resistance levels. A dry forecast for the US Plains as well as the Black Sea region continues to support prices. 
• Russian wheat prices after months of dirt cheap export offers, have begun to move slightly higher as of late. This is likely a reflection of the ongoing and worsening drought in the Black Sea region that has limited winter wheat planting. 
• The US Dollar appears to have found some support and stabilization as of late after the recent Fed rate cut which was larger than expected. 

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn futures are trading lower to start the day after rallying yesterday on a bullish Quarterly Grain Stocks report. Dockworkers at ports from Maine all the way to Texas have officially gone on strike which would make imports more expensive but could also effect the export of grains negatively.
• Yesterday’s USDA report was bullish for corn showing corn stocks down 93 million bushels from the average trade estimate. On farm stocks fell from 3.026 bb on June 1 to 780 mb on September 1.
• Yesterday afternoon, the USDA released its crop progress report which showed the good to excellent rating falling one point from last week to 64%. 75% of the corn crop is now mature and 21% is harvested which compares to the 5-year average of 18%.

• Soybeans are trading lower for the second consecutive day after yesterday’s neutral stocks report that saw a bearish reaction. The dockworker strike may also be having a negative effect on soybean prices today. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower this morning.
• Along with harvest pressure in the US, weather forecasts are still predicting that central Brazil which has been extremely dry will begin seeing rains within the next few weeks. So far, only scattered showers have materialized.
• Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the soybean good to excellent rating unchanged from a week ago at 64%. 81% of the crop is dropping leaves and 26% is harvested which compares to 13% a week ago and the average of 18%.

• All three wheat classes are trading slightly higher today after yesterday’s grains stocks report turned out to not be as bearish for wheat as trade thought. Adverse global weather has also been behind the recent uptick in prices.
• Yesterday’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report showed that wheat stocks as of September 1 were slightly higher than the average trade estimates but was not significant. The report was essentially neutral and the reaction indicated that trade was expecting bearish numbers.
• Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the winter wheat crop as 39% planted which compares to 25% a week ago and on par with the 5-year average. 14% of the crop is emerged which compares to 4% a week ago and the average of 13%.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading slightly lower this morning but has recovered from lower prices in the overnight trade. The dry forecast over the Corn Belt is expected to last for around 10 days and should cause harvest progress to speed up which may be adding pressure to futures.
• Today at 11 central, the USDA will publish its quarterly Grain Stocks report. According to a Bloomberg survey, the market anticipates US corn stocks as of September 1 to be 1.846 billion bushels, marking a 36% increase from 1.360 billion bushels a year ago.
• Friday’s CFTC report showed that as of Tuesday the 24th, funds bought back 4,115 contracts of corn which reduced their net short position to 130,699 contracts. It is estimated that funds bought back an additional 25,000 contracts since the 24th.

• Soybeans are trading lower this morning but have also rebounded from overnight lows as did corn. On Friday, soybeans ended the day nearly 25 cents higher with support from huge gains in soybean meal. This morning, both soybean meal and oil are trading slightly lower.
• The USDA will release its Quarterly Grain Stocks report later today, which can sometimes contain surprises. Soybean stocks are expected to come in at 347 million bushels which would be up 31% from the 264 mb in September 2023.
• Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back 47,437 contracts of soybeans as of the 24th. This reduced their net short position to 74,978 contracts, but they are estimated to have exited an additional 20,000 contracts since the 24th which shows them nearing a net neutral position.

• All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning as global weather continues to be an issue for wheat production. The Black Sea region is dry, Europe is too wet, and the winter wheat in the US has very little rain in its forecast.
• The Quarterly Stocks and Small Grains reports will be released today, and a Bloomberg survey projects that it will show US wheat stocks as of September 1 at 1.992 billion bushels, up 13% from last year. Wheat production is estimated at 1.983 bb. 
• Friday’s CFTC report showed funds selling 1,436 contracts of Chicago wheat which increased their net short position to 26,469 contracts. They sold 2,460 contracts of KC wheat which left them net short 19,946 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• The corn market is trading mid-range and off its overnight highs in a quiet 3 3/4 cent range in the December contract, following yesterday’s reversal lower from fresh highs.
• While the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange expects Argentine corn planting to cover 6.3 million hectares for the 24/25 crop season, with a 47 million metric ton harvest. The exchange also stated that it could cut those estimates if key areas don’t receive rain in the coming weeks.
• Monday, the USDA will publish its quarterly Grain Stocks report. According to a Bloomberg survey, the market anticipates US corn stocks as of September 1 to be 1.846 billion bushels, marking a 36% increase from 1.360 billion bushels a year ago.
• Weekly corn export sales as reported by the USDA yesterday for the week ending Sept. 19, were weak at just 535,000 metric tons, and behind the weekly pace needed to reach the USDA’s projections. Total export sales are currently at 25% of the USDA’s goal versus the 5-year average of 28% sold by this time.
• Managed funds were active buyers in the corn market yesterday, covering an estimated 7,000 net short contracts. Managed funds are now estimated to be net short about 110,000 corn futures contracts. The CFTC will be out later today with updated positions as of Tuesday, Sept. 24. 

• Soybeans are currently trading a little higher this morning, near the top end of their 13-cent range with support from moderately higher soybean meal. Soybean oil is trading lower, as it follows through on yesterday’s key bearish reversal. 
• Weekly soybean export sales for the week ending Sept. 19, came in slightly ahead of expectations at 1.575 million metric tons. Current total commitments are running at 35% of the USDA’s goal versus the 5-year average of 42% at this time of year.
• The USDA will release its Quarterly Grain Stocks report on Monday, which can sometimes contain surprises. Soybean stocks are expected to come in at 347 million bushels which would be up 31% from the 264 mb in September 2023.
• Managed funds were active sellers of soybeans yesterday, selling an estimated 3,000 contracts. Managed funds are now estimated to be net short about 91,000 soybean futures contracts. The CFTC will be out this afternoon with updated positions as of Tuesday, Sept. 24. 

• The wheat complex is trading lower across all three classes and near mid-range this morning as the markets follow through on yesterday’s weakness and traders square positions ahead of the weekend and Monday’s Quarterly Stocks and Small Grains report.
• Monday’s Quarterly Stocks and Small Grains reports will be released Monday. A Bloomberg survey projects that it will show US wheat stocks as of September 1 at 1.992 billion bushels, up 13% from last year. Wheat production is estimated at 1.983 bb. 
• Russian ag consultancy IKAR dropped its grain production forecast for 2024 to 124.5 million metric tons from 125 mmt. Of that total, 81.8 mmt is wheat, which was cut from 82.2 mmt. For now, the agency is maintaining its wheat export forecast at 44 mmt for the 24/25 season.
• Weekly export sales for wheat as of Thursday, Sept. 19, came in well below expectations, at a weak 159,000 metric tons, about half of the weekly total needed to reach the USDA’s export goals. Total sales are currently slightly ahead of the 5-year average sales pace for this time.
• Yesterday, Managed funds sold an estimated 3,000 contracts of Chicago wheat, and they are now estimated to hold a relatively small, short position totaling 19,000 Chicago wheat futures contracts. The CFTC will be out later this afternoon with updated position information as of Tuesday, Sept. 24.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading slightly lower this morning but remains near the upper range of its recent range as trade considers the dry weather in Brazil which could impact production. Yesterday, December corn reached its highest level since July of $4.18.
• Over the past three days, funds have bought back an estimated 25,000 contracts of corn, and it appears as if they may continue this trend especially if Brazil does not receive the rain expected in its forecast.
• Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn in a range between 600k and 1,300k tons with an average guess of 938k tons. This would compare to last week’s 847k tons. Corn export demand has improved recently.

• Soybeans are continuing their upward momentum and are higher again this morning. They are on track for a fourth consecutively higher close and are currently up nearly 50 cents on the week. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher as well.
• The dryness in Brazil has been more bullish for soybeans than for corn, and over the past three days, funds have bought back an estimated 35,000 contracts of soybeans. Meteorologists have said that the La Nina pattern that was expected this summer may see effects pushed into the fall which would be a problem for Brazil.
• Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 900k and 2,000k tons with an average guess of 1,438k tons. This would compare with last week’s 1,756k tons.

• All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning and have been in an upward trend all week. For the week, December Chicago wheat is up by 26 cents and has nearly wiped out all of last week’s losses.
• Ukraine’s grain exports for the July-June 24/25 season are near 9.8 million metric tons, as of Sept. 25, according to their ag ministry, and of that total, 5.6 mmt is wheat. Additionally, farm associations and the Ukrainian government have agreed to limit wheat exports to 16.2 mmt.
• Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales between 200k and 600k tons with an average guess of 375k tons. This compares to 258k tons last week.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

• The corn market is quietly trading near the bottom of its tight 3-cent range in the December contract on technical, follow through selling from yesterday’s bearish reversal.
• Later today, the EIA will release its weekly ethanol production report for the week ending Sept. 20. The average trade estimate sees daily production dropping slightly to 1.046 million barrels per day, with stocks rising to 23.896 million barrels.
• Next week on September 30, the USDA will release its quarterly Grain Stocks report. The average trade guess according to a Bloomberg survey, estimates US corn stocks as of Sept. 1 at 1.846 billion bushels, up 36% from last year’s 1.360 bb.

• Soybeans are lower this morning after trading higher earlier in the evening on the strength of a firm opening in soybean oil. Both meal and oil have turned lower and are weighing on the soybean market. 
• A bill has been introduced in congress, called the Farmers First Fuel Incentives Act, that would make sure only biofuels made from domestic feedstocks be eligible for the 45Z tax credit. This legislation is also expected to extend the 2-year credit to 10 years, according to Sen. Roger Marshall.  
• Next week, the USDA will release its quarterly Grain Stocks report. The average trade guess according to a Bloomberg survey, estimates US soybean stocks as of Sept. 1 at 347 million bushels, up 31% from last year’s 264 mb.

• The wheat complex is lower across all three classes, with the Minneapolis contracts leading the way. Follow through technical selling from yesterday’s bearish reversals appears to be primary culprit. Both December KC and Minneapolis are approaching support near their 50-day moving averages.
• Ukraine’s grain exports for the July-June 24/25 season are near 9.8 million metric tons, as of Sept. 25, according to their ag ministry, and of that total, 5.6 mmt is wheat. Additionally, farm associations and the Ukrainian government have agreed to limit wheat exports to 16.2 mmt.
• According to a Bloomberg survey, the average trade guess for Sept. 1 wheat stocks in next week’s USDA quarterly Grain Stocks report, is 1.992 billion bushels, a 13% increase from last year. Production is estimated to come in at 1.983 bb.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.