|

9-16 Opening Update: Grains Trading Lower to Start the Week

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’24 410.25 -3
MAR ’25 428.25 -2.75
DEC ’25 446.25 -2.25

Soybeans

NOV ’24 1005.5 -0.75
JAN ’25 1024.25 -0.5
NOV ’25 1057.5 -0.5

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’24 584.5 -10.25
MAR ’25 602.75 -9.5
JUL ’25 617.5 -9.5

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’24 588.75 -11.25
MAR ’25 601.25 -11.5
JUL ’25 612 -11.5

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’24 625.5 -10
MAR ’25 646 -9.5
SEP ’25 674.5 0

S&P 500

DEC ’24 5687.75 -3.25

Crude Oil

NOV ’24 68.24 0.49

Gold

DEC ’24 2608.8 -1.9

  • Corn is trading lower this morning after the December contract gained 7 cents in last week’s trade as sellers take advantage of higher prices. Dry weather in the Corn Belt has been supportive over the past few weeks, especially its impact on later planted acres.
  • While the USDA is anticipating big yields and large production, demand has picked up to match supply. Old crop corn demand increased by 365 mb in last week’s WASDE report and new crop demand is estimated in increase by 45 mb.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds exiting their short positions and buying back 44,077 contracts which left them net short 132,134 contracts. Over the past three weeks, funds have bought back 125,000 contracts of corn.

  • Soybeans are trading slightly lower this morning as soybeans remain in rangebound trade over the past three weeks. Dry weather in the US along with the concern over dry conditions in Brazil has been supportive. Soybean meal is trading higher while soybean oil is lower.
  • Brazil has had months of dry weather and much of the upcoming price action will rely on the weather in the country going forward. They are forecast to receive showers in the South, but central Brazil is still forecast to remain dry for another 10 days. With appropriate rains, Brazil would likely produce a new record crop in 2025. 
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back a portion of their short position. They bought back 23,495 contracts which left them net short 130,601 contracts.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning and are giving back a big chunk of Friday’s gains. While the fundamentals in wheat have been supportive, the technicals have been well overbought for over a week and may be attracting sellers.
  • In the EU, wheat output estimates have been lowered to 125 mmt from 135 mmt the previous year as a result of excessive rainfall in the western countries and droughts in the east. Russia has also seen wheat supplies fall since last year as a result of lower production due to weather.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back wheat by 13,227 contracts which left them net short 29,397 contracts. Funds have been consistently buying back wheat since the end of July.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

9-13 Opening Update: Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat All Higher Following WASDE Report Yesterday

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’24 409.75 3.75
MAR ’25 427.75 3.25
DEC ’25 447.25 2

Soybeans

NOV ’24 1014.5 3.75
JAN ’25 1033 3.5
NOV ’25 1061.5 1

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’24 589.5 11
MAR ’25 608.25 10.75
JUL ’25 623.75 10.5

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’24 595.75 9.5
MAR ’25 609 9.25
JUL ’25 619.25 8.75

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’24 629.5 7.75
MAR ’25 649.75 6.5
SEP ’25 671.75 5.75

S&P 500

DEC ’24 5673.25 10.75

Crude Oil

NOV ’24 68.83 0.68

Gold

DEC ’24 2595.5 14.9

  • Corn is trading higher this morning following yesterday’s WASDE report and volatile trade that managed to see prices higher despite a bearish yield number. Lower ending stocks were the bullish piece of the report.
  • Yesterday, CONAB released its estimates for Brazilian corn production which saw them increasing the number to 115.72 mmt from 115.65 mmt last month. Ending stocks in the country were increased to 5.05 mmt from 4.97 mmt.
  • Hurricane Francine hit Louisiana earlier this week and brought heavy rains to the southern states and now showers into southern Illinois and Indiana. Illinois and Indiana are the top 2 yielding states with Illinois at 222 bpa and Indiana at 210 bpa.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning after the USDA released numbers for soybeans that were friendlier than expected as yield remained unchanged rather than raised as was expected. Soybean meal is slightly higher while soybean oil is lower this morning.
  • Export demand has picked up for US soybeans under $10.00 which has been very supportive. 54 mb were sold last week, and new crop sales are only down 14% from a year ago and have risen from a 45% deficit last month.
  • Brazil has had months of dry weather and much of the upcoming price action will rely on the weather in the country going forward. They are forecast to receive showers in the South, but central Brazil is still forecast to remain dry for another 10 days. With appropriate rains, Brazil would likely produce a new record crop in 2025. 

  • All three wheat contracts are trading higher this morning with Chicago wheat leading the way higher as higher Paris milling wheat is supportive along with adverse global weather.
  • In yesterday’s report, the USDA lowered its estimate of European wheat production by 4 mmt to 124 mmt due to excessive rains which are now delaying winter wheat planting. The Black Sea region remains dry.
  • In the Black Sea region, both Russia and Ukraine are dry, but Ukraine is forecast to receive widespread showers next week. Estimates for Russia wheat crop have been cut by 1.6 mmt due to the lack of rain.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

9-12 Opening Update: Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat All Higher Ahead of WASDE Report Today

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’24 409 4.25
MAR ’25 427.75 4.25
DEC ’25 447.25 2.25

Soybeans

NOV ’24 1008.25 7.75
JAN ’25 1026.5 7.5
NOV ’25 1059 7

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’24 590 10.75
MAR ’25 608.75 10.5
JUL ’25 623.25 9

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’24 598.5 10.25
MAR ’25 611 9.75
JUL ’25 620.75 9.25

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’24 625 8.5
MAR ’25 643 5.5
SEP ’25 670 7.25

S&P 500

DEC ’24 5629 8

Crude Oil

NOV ’24 67.74 1.14

Gold

DEC ’24 2544.9 2.5

  • Corn is trading higher this morning in anticipation of the USDA’s supply and demand report, and futures are now trading above the 50-day moving average. The forecast for the Corn Belt remains dry and warm.
  • Estimates for today’s WASDE report see corn ending stocks for both 23/24 and 24/25 falling slightly as trade expects a decline in yield to 182.7 bpa from 183.1 bpa last month. Production is estimated at 15,105 mb compared to the guess of 15,147 mb last month.
  • Hurricane Francine hit Louisiana yesterday and is bringing heavy rains and flooding to the Gulf states with some rains reaching as far North as southern Illinois. Harvest is basically over in the southern states but Kentucky and Tennessee are beginning harvest and are vulnerable to heavy rains.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning and have brought the November contract back above the $10.00 mark as rains from the hurricane threaten states that are beginning to harvest soybeans. In Mississippi, 32% of the soybean crop is harvested.
  • Estimates for today’s WASDE report see a small decline in 23/24 ending stocks but an increase in 24/25 ending stocks from 560 mb to 568 mb. Yields are expected to increase slightly, and world ending stocks are expected to fall slightly.
  • Demand has been strong lately with profitable crush margins driving domestic demand and Chinese purchases of new crop soybeans driving export demand.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning as winter wheat planting begins with very dry conditions in the southwestern Plains. The La Nina conditions that were  anticipated to come this summer are now expected to hit in the fall.
  • There is not much expectation for major changes in wheat in today’s WASDE report, but it is likely that ending stocks will be lowered as a result of a significant increase in export sales. World wheat ending stocks are expected to be lowered.
  • In the Black Sea region, both Russia and Ukraine are dry, but Ukraine is forecast to receive widespread showers next week. Estimates for Russia wheat crop have been cut by 1.6 mmt due to the lack of rain. 

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

9-11 Opening Update: Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat All Higher to Start the Day

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’24 406.5 2.25
MAR ’25 425.5 2.25
DEC ’25 446 2

Soybeans

NOV ’24 1005.5 8.25
JAN ’25 1023.75 8.5
NOV ’25 1055.25 7.75

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’24 577.75 3.5
MAR ’25 597.5 4
JUL ’25 613.25 3.5

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’24 586.25 2.25
MAR ’25 599.5 2.5
JUL ’25 610.25 2.5

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’24 615 5
MAR ’25 636.75 4.75
SEP ’25 656.5 0

S&P 500

DEC ’24 5549.5 -13

Crude Oil

NOV ’24 66.59 1.45

Gold

DEC ’24 2550.6 7.5

  • Corn is trading higher this morning with the December contract trading just above the 50-day moving average as trade squares positions ahead of a potentially friendly WASDE report tomorrow which could see ending stocks lowered for 24/25.
  • Estimates for today’s weekly ethanol report see production rising from last week at 1.062 million barrels per day while the average estimate for stockpiles is at 23.338m bbl which would compare with 23.354m a week ago.
  • Estimates for tomorrow’s WASDE report see ending stocks falling to 2.033 bb from 2.073 bb in last months report. The corn yield is expected to be lowered to 182.7 bpa from 183.1 bpa last month.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning after yesterday’s large sell off. Funds hold a large net short position and will likely continue to buy back positions lowering their exposure going into tomorrow’s report.
  • In Brazil, the lack of rain has caused river levels to hit record lows there and in the rest of South America. In addition, water levels on the Mississippi are quite low as well and between the two, there may be shipping issues.
  • Estimates for tomorrow’s WASDE see ending stocks for 24/25 rising slightly to 568 mb from 560 mb. The increase in ending stocks comes from an anticipated increase in yields to 53.3 bpa from 53.2 bpa last month.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning with Minneapolis wheat leading the complex higher. Futures have rallied over 50 cents off their lows as exports have picked up significantly.
  • Estimates for tomorrow’s WASDE report see 24/25 ending stocks for wheat falling to 822 mb from 828 mb last month as a result of the increased export demand. World ending stocks are also expected to be lowered from the August report.
  • In Russia, IKAR has lowered its estimate for the 2024 wheat crop by 1.6 mmt to 82.2 mmt citing very adverse weather in 3 key growing regions. Wheat export potential was cut by 0.5 mmt to 44 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

9-10 Opening Update: Corn and Soybeans Trading Lower, Wheat Higher After Crop Progress Report

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’24 405.5 -1.75
MAR ’25 424.25 -1.75
DEC ’25 443.25 -1.75

Soybeans

NOV ’24 1005.5 -12.5
JAN ’25 1023 -12.5
NOV ’25 1052.75 -10.25

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’24 568.75 0.25
MAR ’25 588.25 0.75
JUL ’25 604.75 0.5

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’24 577 1.25
MAR ’25 588.75 -0.25
JUL ’25 599 -0.75

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’24 606.75 0
MAR ’25 627.5 -1
SEP ’25 660.25 7.5

S&P 500

DEC ’24 5536.25 -1.75

Crude Oil

NOV ’24 67.19 -0.72

Gold

DEC ’24 2534.2 1.5

  • Corn is trading lower this morning after yesterday’s crop progress report showed corn ratings at the highest in 6 years for this time of year. December futures have been drifting down towards the 50-day moving average after Friday’s selloff.
  • Yesterday, the USDA released its crop progress report which showed the corn good to excellent rating falling 1 point to 64% which is not bad considering the recent dry weather. 5% of the crop is reportedly harvested which compares to the 5-year average of 3%.
  • In Brazil, 15% of the countries first crop corn planting is complete with most of the progress in the center-southern region. Brazil’s first crop corn typically accounts for 20% of their total corn production.

  • Soybeans are lower this morning and have taken back nearly all of yesterday’s gains. The November contract is now trading back below its 40-day moving average and is technically overbought. Both soybean meal and oil are trading lower as well.
  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the good to excellent rating for soybeans were surprisingly unchanged from last week at 65% despite the dry conditions. Trade was expecting 63%. 25% of the crop is dropping leaves which compares to 13% last week and 27% a year ago.
  • In Brazil, the lack of rain has caused river levels to hit record lows there and in the rest of South America. This will likely pose shipments to get backed up and could be supportive for US exports.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning as US forecasts remain dry, and there has also been an uptick in export demand lately which could cause the USDA to increase its export forecast on Thursday.
  • Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed the spring wheat harvest at 85% complete which compared to the trade estimate of 83%, 70% completion a week ago, and the 5-year average of 83%. Winter wheat is now 6% planted which compares to the trade guess of 8% and the 5-year average of 6%.
  • In Russia, IKAR has lowered its estimate for the 2024 wheat crop by 1.6 mmt to 82.2 mmt citing very adverse weather in 3 key growing regions. Wheat export potential was cut by 0.5 mmt to 44 mmt.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

9-9 Opening Update: Corn and Wheat Lower to Start the Week, Soybeans Higher

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’24 405.5 -0.75
MAR ’25 423.75 -0.75
DEC ’25 443.75 -1

Soybeans

NOV ’24 1010.75 5.75
JAN ’25 1028.5 6
NOV ’25 1057.75 7

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’24 564.25 -2.75
MAR ’25 583.75 -2.75
JUL ’25 599.5 -3.5

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’24 576.5 -1
MAR ’25 588.75 -2
JUL ’25 599.25 -2

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’24 611.75 -2
MAR ’25 632.25 -2.5
SEP ’25 656.75 -2.5

S&P 500

DEC ’24 5518 41

Crude Oil

NOV ’24 67.54 0.56

Gold

DEC ’24 2525.3 0.7

  • Corn is trading slightly lower this morning and is hovering right at the 50-day moving average in the December contract. Last week, futures were set to post big gains on the week, but Friday ended up posting a bearish reversal due to outside macroeconomic factors.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed that funds bought back 65,697 contracts of corn as of September 3 which reduced their net short position to 176,211 contracts. Funds likely sold additional contracts of Friday that were not counted. 
  • This Thursday, the USDA will release it’s WASDE report, and estimates are calling for a slight decrease in corn ending stocks in the US and a slight decrease in yields.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning following Friday’s major selloff but have still been unable to break back above the 50-day moving average in the November contract. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher which is offering support.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back 22,455 contracts of soybeans as of September 3 which reduced their net short position to 154,096 contracts, but funds were estimated to have sold an additional 10,000 contracts on Friday.
  • Estimates for the upcoming WASDE report see soybean ending stocks rising slightly due to an anticipated increase in US yields. Trade is expecting yield to come in around 53.3 bpa.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with Chicago wheat still well off its contract lows and now trading just a hair above its moving average. Stochastics are showing overbought conditions.
  • While exports have picked up, US wheat is still not competitive with Russian or Ukrainian offers, but has become competitive with the rest of the world. Russia recently estimated its wheat production to be larger which likely made them more competitive.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back 13,578 contracts of Chicago wheat which left them net short 42,624 contracts and buying back 4,765 contracts of KC wheat which left them net short 27,237 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

9-6 Opening Update: Grains Slightly Lower as Rally Cools on Overbought Technicals

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’24 410.5 -0.25
MAR ’25 428.75 -0.5
DEC ’25 447 -0.25

Soybeans

NOV ’24 1019 -4.5
JAN ’25 1036.75 -4.75
NOV ’25 1066 -1.25

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’24 571.75 -3
MAR ’25 592.5 -2.5
JUL ’25 610 -2.25

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’24 584.75 -4
MAR ’25 598.75 -3.5
JUL ’25 609 -3.5

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’24 622 -3.75
MAR ’25 643 -4
SEP ’25 670.75 -0.25

S&P 500

DEC ’24 5537.75 -33

Crude Oil

NOV ’24 68.77 0.27

Gold

DEC ’24 2549.6 6.5

  • Corn is trading unchanged to slightly lower to start the day following yesterday’s lower close which broke a 4-day winning streak. Prices remain 26 cents off their contract lows and have gained 10 cents so far this week.
  • Later this morning, the USDA will release its export sales report, and estimates for corn exports are in a range between 600k and 1,400k tons with an average guess of 1,156k tons. This would compare to 1,509k tons last week.
  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has released its weekly corn production report and has kept estimates for production unchanged at 46.5 mmt. In addition, they have also pegged the corn harvest as 100% complete.

  • Soybeans are lower to start the day, but were also lower yesterday morning before rallying into the close for a positive finish. In just 3 weeks, November soybeans have rallied 65 cents off their lows and are up 20 cents this week. Both soybean meal and oil are lower as well.
  • Later this morning, the USDA will release its export sales report, and estimates for soybean exports are between 700k and 1,800k tons with an average guess of 1,88k tons. After all the recent sales to China, it would not be surprising to see a number toward the higher end of the trade range. Last week’s sales totaled 2,472k tons.
  • In Argentina, soy crush workers had previously been striking due to low wages, but an agreement was reached between the union and agricultural traders which has ended the strike. They achieved a 26% raise. 

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning as prices consolidate and cool off with stochastics in well overbought territory. Prices have rallied by 52 cents in just 1.5 weeks for December Chicago wheat.
  • While exports have picked up, US wheat is still not competitive with Russian or Ukrainian offers, but has become competitive with the rest of the world. Russia recently estimated its wheat production to be larger which likely made them more competitive.
  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat exports in a range between 300k and 600k tons with an average guess of 463k tons. This would compare with last week’s exports of 498k tons.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

9-5 Opening Update: Grains Lower to Start the Day With Pressure From High Yield Expectations

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’24 410.5 -2.25
MAR ’25 428.75 -2.25
DEC ’25 446.75 -1

Soybeans

NOV ’24 1011.75 -9.75
JAN ’25 1029.75 -9.5
NOV ’25 1056.25 -8.75

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’24 573.5 -7.25
MAR ’25 594 -6.75
JUL ’25 610.75 -7

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’24 588.25 -4.75
MAR ’25 601.75 -4.75
JUL ’25 611.5 -4.5

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’24 621.75 -1.75
MAR ’25 642.25 -3
SEP ’25 665.75 -4.5

S&P 500

DEC ’24 5590.75 2

Crude Oil

NOV ’24 68.76 0.24

Gold

DEC ’24 2546.1 20.1

  • Corn is trading lower this morning after four consecutive days of higher closes which has seen December corn gain 9-1/4 cents on the week so far and also has the contract 25 cents off its contract low from last week.
  • Yesterday afternoon, StoneX released its new estimate for the national corn yield and raised it to 182.9 bpa. On next Thursday, the USDA will release its WASDE report which will show their updated yield estimates.
  • Over the past 5 days, funds are estimated to have bought back 40,000 contracts of corn which would be a very large move and would take their net short position well off its record lengths.

  • Soybeans are trading lower this morning after four consecutively higher closes as they meet some technical resistance at the top of the Bollinger Band, but similar to corn, expectations of higher yields may be adding pressure today. Soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is slightly higher.
  • Yesterday, StoneX revised its estimate for the US soybean yield and increased it along with corn to 53.0 bpa. The increase comes despite the dry forecast which many speculate could trim yields slightly.
  • In Brazil, dry conditions are preventing early planting of soybeans, but forecasts show an improvement near the middle of September. Soybean planted area is only set to expand by 0.9% from last year which is the slowest expansion pace for the country in 18 years.

  • All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning but the majority of losses are in the Chicago wheat contract. Prices have gotten slightly overbought after wheat posted 6 consecutively higher closes and are now 50 cents off their contract lows.
  • While exports have picked up, US wheat is still not competitive with Russian or Ukrainian offers, but has become competitive with the rest of the world. Russia recently estimated its wheat production to be larger which likely made them more competitive.
  • In Ukraine, it is estimated that the 2025 planted winter wheat area could rise to more than 5 million hectares which would compare to 4.7 million hectares in 2024. They are expected to plant less rapeseed in favor of wheat due to drought.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

9-4 Opening Update: Wheat Continues Higher Wednesday Morning

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’24 409.5 0.25
MAR ’25 427.25 0
DEC ’25 445.25 0.25

Soybeans

NOV ’24 1006.5 -5.5
JAN ’25 1024 -5.5
NOV ’25 1051.5 -5.5

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’24 570.75 4
MAR ’25 590.25 4
JUL ’25 608 4.5

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’24 580.25 4
MAR ’25 594.75 5
JUL ’25 605 4.5

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’24 611.25 4
MAR ’25 632.25 3.5
SEP ’25 656.5 0

S&P 500

DEC ’24 5577.75 -23.5

Crude Oil

NOV ’24 70.01 0.42

Gold

DEC ’24 2519.3 -3.7

  • Corn is trading slightly higher this morning after Tuesday’s push higher. Strong export inspections reported to start the week and strength in the wheat complex provided support. 
  • With yesterday’s push higher December corn futures are now trading above the 50-day moving average. Since late May December corn has traded below the 50-day. 
  • The U.S. corn crop was rated 65% good to excellent as of September 1, this was unchanged from last week and 12% higher than this same week last year.
  • 60% of the U.S. corn crop was dented as of September 1, this was up 14% from last week and is 2% ahead of the five-year average.

  • Soybeans are trading lower to start Wednesday morning after Tuesday’s push higher to start the shortened trading week. 
  • Tuesday brought the announcement of another new-crop soybean sale to China of 4.85 million bushels. Rumors also circulated that an additional six to nine cargoes of US soybeans have been recently purchased by China.
  • The U.S. soybean crop was rated 65% good to excellent as of September 1, this was down 2% from last week and 12% higher than this same week last year.
  • 13% of the U.S. soybean crop was dropping leaves as of September 1, this was up from 6% a week ago and 3% ahead of the five-year average.

  • All three wheat contracts are trading higher this morning after Tuesday’s surge in wheat futures across the board. 
  • The U.S. Spring wheat crop was 70% harvested as of September 1, this was up from 51% last week and in line with the five-year average.
  • KC wheat futures were higher for a sixth consecutive session Tuesday following French milling wheat futures higher once again. Continued short covering by the managed money funds appears to be the main catalyst for the recent move.
  • Chicago wheat futures traded to their highest level in three weeks to start this week and above their 50-day moving average, a level not sustained above since mid-June. 

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

9-3 Opening Update: Corn and Wheat Lower to Start the Week, Soybeans Higher

All prices as of 6:30 am Central Time

Corn

DEC ’24 399.75 -1.25
MAR ’25 417.75 -1.25
DEC ’25 438.25 -0.5

Soybeans

NOV ’24 1000.25 0.25
JAN ’25 1018.25 1.25
NOV ’25 1048.5 1.25

Chicago Wheat

DEC ’24 547 -4.5
MAR ’25 567.25 -5
JUL ’25 584.75 -5

K.C. Wheat

DEC ’24 558.25 -7
MAR ’25 571.75 -6
JUL ’25 582 -5.75

Mpls Wheat

DEC ’24 595 -5.5
MAR ’25 616.5 -5.25
SEP ’25 650.25 0

S&P 500

DEC ’24 5694 -28.5

Crude Oil

NOV ’24 71.47 -1.18

Gold

DEC ’24 2532.1 4.5

  • Corn is trading slightly lower this morning, but the December contract is still trading above $4.00 thanks to Friday’s rally. Support last week has come from the drier 2-week forecast that could impact ear fill in some areas.
  • In Brazil, summer corn plantings are estimated at 8% complete as of August 29. This compares to 4% completion last week but 13% at this time last year. There have been planting delays in the country due to dryness and very cold temperatures recorded earlier last week.
  •  Friday’s CFTC report showed that funds bought back 15,998 contracts of corn as of August 27 which left them with a net short position of 241,908 contracts. The drier weather forecast has likely caused them to cover more shorts.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning and have been on a steady upward trend since the low on August 16. The November contract has gained 45 cents since that low as the drier forecast has been more beneficial to soybean prices.
  • Soybean meal is trading higher today but soybean oil is sharply lower after China opened an anti-dumping investigation against Canadian canola after tariffs were placed on Chinese electric vehicles. This has put pressure on both canola and soybean oil.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as buyers of soybeans as of August 27 as they bought back 6,207 contracts leaving them short 176,551 contracts which is close to their record short.

  • All three wheat contracts are trading lower this morning led by losses in KC wheat. Cheaper European wheat futures and falling global wheat export prices have pressured US wheat.
  • In Russia, SovEcon has reduced their estimate for the countries wheat crop down to 82.5 mmt from a previous estimate of 83.3 mmt citing lower than expected yields in some areas.
  • Friday’s CFTC report showed funds adding to their net short position by 3,217 contracts which left them net short 56,202 contracts, but funds remain well off their largest short position of the year from April.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.