|

3-19 Opening Update: Grains Trading Higher After New Middle Eastern Attacks Target Oil Fields

  • Corn futures are trading higher this morning as higher crude oil prices support both corn and soybeans. May corn is up 5-3/4 cents to $4.69 while December is up 5-1/4 cents to $4.95.
  • S&P Global is estimating that the US will plant 95.2 million acres of corn in 2026. This would be up slightly from its last estimate but would be down from 98.8 ma last year. More acres could shift to soybeans if locking in fertilizer remains difficult.
  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 700k and 2,000k tons as of March 12. The average guess is 1,350k tons which would compare to 1,503k a week ago and 1,558k at this time a year ago.

Corn Breaks Above 450: Corn futures have continued pressing higher after recently breaking through resistance near 450. That level now transitions into initial support, with secondary support found at a band of moving averages near 436. Overhead resistance is located near 495, marking the April 2025 high.

  • Soybeans are trading higher this morning with support from higher crude and higher soybean meal, and gains are primarily in the back months. May soybeans are up 5 cents to $11.6-3/4 while November is up 9-3/4 cents to $11.51-1/4. May soybean meal is up $5.60 to $327.20 and soybean oil is up 0.17 cents to 65.69 cents.
  • Overnight, Israel attacked Iran’s South Pars gas field which caused Iran to retaliate by attacking another gas field. Crude oil spiked to $110 a barrel on this news, and President Trump said that he would “blow up” the entire South Pars gas field if Iran continued to attack Qatar.
  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 300k and 800k tons with an average guess of 431k tons. This would compare to 457k last week and 353k tons a year ago at this time.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher to start the day with May Chicago wheat up 9-3/4 cents to $6.14, KC wheat up 6-3/4 cents to $6.32-3/4, and Minn wheat up 8-3/4 cents to $6.46 as fund money flows into commodities.
  • Russian wheat production for the 26/27 marketing year is expected to rise to 84.0 mmt which would be up 3% from previous estimates as analysts cite favorable weather conditions improving yields.
  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 350k and 550k tons with an average guess of 400k tons. This would compare to last week’s 455k tons and 242k tons a year ago at this time.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

3-18 Opening Update: Grains Trading Lower Due to Lower Crude and Higher Dollar

  • Corn futures are trading slightly lower this morning as trade expects a drop in weekly ethanol production. May soybeans are down 2 cents to $4.52 while December is down 1-1/2 cents to $4.80-1/4.
  • Estimates for the weekly US EIA report see ethanol production lower than last week at 1.125 million barrels per day while stockpile estimates are higher at 25.74m bbl from 25.58m a week ago.
  • At the end of the month, the USDA will release its Planting Intentions report. The soybean to corn price ratio currently favors corn planting for new crop, but difficulty locking in fertilizer could push more acres to soybeans.

Corn Breaks Above 450: Corn futures have continued pressing higher after recently breaking through resistance near 450. That level now transitions into initial support, with secondary support found at a band of moving averages near 436. Overhead resistance is located near 495, marking the April 2025 high.

  • Soybeans are trading lower to start the day following yesterday’s slight rebound from the prior limit down day. May soybeans are down 8-1/4 cents to $11.48-3/4 while November is down 2-3/4 cents to $11.27-1/4. May soybean meal is up $0.30 to $312 and soybean oil is down 0.51 cents to 65.46 cents.
  • Brazil is reportedly negotiating its soybean inspection framework after China made complaints about soybean quality that caused exports to be temporarily halted. Brazilian officials will meet with the Chinese who have complained about weeds in their shipments.
  • Brazilian soybean exports are seen reaching 16.32 mmt in March which would compare to 16.47 mmt estimated the previous week. Soybean meal exports are expected to reach 2.66 mmt compared to 2.82 mmt previously estimated.

  • Wheat is mixed to start the day with May Chicago wheat down 2-1/4 cents to $5.87-1/2, KC wheat down 2-1/4 cents to $6.04-3/4, and Minn wheat up 1-3/4 cents to $6.26. Wheat has largely been a follower the past few weeks.
  • Russian wheat exports for March could reach as high as 4.5 mmt which would be the second highest since March of 2023. This is up from last week’s forecast of 3.7 mmt.
  • The USDA has released its updated winter wheat conditions for the week ending March 15. The good to excellent rating in Kansas has been lowered to 52% from 56%, and in Oklahoma, ratings fell to 18% from 24%. Texas ratings fell 1 point to 15% good to excellent.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

3-17 Opening Update: Grains Rebound Slightly From Yesterday’s Sharp Losses

  • Corn futures are trading slightly higher to start the day following yesterday’s 13 cent drop that was caused by a limit down move in soybeans. May corn is up 3 cents to $4.57 while December is up 3 cents to $4.83.
  • In Brazil, ethanol output is expected to grow by 4 billion liters in the 26/27 season compared to the previous year which would set a record level according to local industry lobbies. 
  • Yesterday’s export inspections report saw corn  inspections at 1,659k tons which compared to 1,523k last week and 1,692k a year ago. Top destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and Colombia.

Corn Breaks Above 450: Corn futures have continued pressing higher after recently breaking through resistance near 450. That level now transitions into initial support, with secondary support found at a band of moving averages near 436. Overhead resistance is located near 495, marking the April 2025 high.

  • Soybeans are trading higher taking back a portion of yesterday’s limit down loss. President Trump said that the meeting with President Xi could be delayed for “a month or so” which could cause trader confidence to falter. May soybeans are up 9-1/4 cents to $11.64-1/2 while November is up 17-1/4 cents to $11.38. May soybean meal is up $0.60 to $312.60 and soybean oil is following crude higher, up 2.08 cents to 66.02 cents.
  • The NOPA February soybean crush report exceeded all trade expectations at 208.79 million bushels crushed, and soy oil stocks reached their highest level since April 2020. Crush was up 17.4% from 177.87 mb at this time a year ago.
  • Yesterday’s export inspections for soybeans came in at 966k tons which compared to 887k tons the previous week and 665k tons a year ago at this time. Top buyers were China, Egypt, and Mexico.

  • Wheat is mixed this morning but is also slightly recovering from yesterday’s sell-off. May Chicago wheat is up 3 cents to $6.00-1/2, KC is up 2-1/4 cents to $6.17-1/2, and Minn wheat is down 1-1/4 cents to $6.32-3/4.
  • The USDA has released its updated winter wheat conditions for the week ending March 15. The good to excellent rating in Kansas has been lowered to 52% from 56%, and in Oklahoma, ratings fell to 18% from 24%. Texas ratings fell 1 point to 15% good to excellent.
  • Yesterday’s export inspections for wheat came in at 343k tons which compared to 499k the previous week and 496k tons a year ago. Top destinations were to Mexico, the Philippines, and Bangladesh.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

3-17 Opening Update:

  • Corn futures are trading slightly higher to start the day following yesterday’s 13 cent drop that was caused by a limit down move in soybeans. May corn is up 3 cents to $4.57 while December is up 3 cents to $4.83.
  • In Brazil, ethanol output is expected to grow by 4 billion liters in the 26/27 season compared to the previous year which would set a record level according to local industry lobbies. 
  • Yesterday’s export inspections report saw corn  inspections at 1,659k tons which compared to 1,523k last week and 1,692k a year ago. Top destinations were to Mexico, Japan, and Colombia.

Corn Breaks Above 450: Corn futures have continued pressing higher after recently breaking through resistance near 450. That level now transitions into initial support, with secondary support found at a band of moving averages near 436. Overhead resistance is located near 495, marking the April 2025 high.

  • Soybeans are trading higher taking back a portion of yesterday’s limit down loss. President Trump said that the meeting with President Xi could be delayed for “a month or so” which could cause trader confidence to falter. May soybeans are up 9-1/4 cents to $11.64-1/2 while November is up 17-1/4 cents to $11.38. May soybean meal is up $0.60 to $312.60 and soybean oil is following crude higher, up 2.08 cents to 66.02 cents.
  • The NOPA February soybean crush report exceeded all trade expectations at 208.79 million bushels crushed, and soy oil stocks reached their highest level since April 2020. Crush was up 17.4% from 177.87 mb at this time a year ago.
  • Yesterday’s export inspections for soybeans came in at 966k tons which compared to 887k tons the previous week and 665k tons a year ago at this time. Top buyers were China, Egypt, and Mexico.

  • Wheat is mixed this morning but is also slightly recovering from yesterday’s sell-off. May Chicago wheat is up 3 cents to $6.00-1/2, KC is up 2-1/4 cents to $6.17-1/2, and Minn wheat is down 1-1/4 cents to $6.32-3/4.
  • The USDA has released its updated winter wheat conditions for the week ending March 15. The good to excellent rating in Kansas has been lowered to 52% from 56%, and in Oklahoma, ratings fell to 18% from 24%. Texas ratings fell 1 point to 15% good to excellent.
  • Yesterday’s export inspections for wheat came in at 343k tons which compared to 499k the previous week and 496k tons a year ago. Top destinations were to Mexico, the Philippines, and Bangladesh.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

3-16 Opening Update: Soybeans Sharply Lower as Trump Threatens Delay of China Summit

  • Corn futures are lower this morning and are likely following the sharp move lower in soybeans. May corn is down 5-1/2 cents to $4.61-3/4 while December is down 4-1/4 cents to $4.87-1/4.
  • Conab has cut its estimate for Brazil’s 25/26 corn production citing lower yields. Production was estimated at 138.27 mmt down from 138.45 mmt last month, and second crop corn was estimated at 108.43 mmt, down from 109.26 in February. Planted acreage is expected to be up with lower yields.
  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds come in with massive buying in corn. They purchased 140,297 contracts which increased their net long position to 193,271 contracts, the largest since this time last year.

Corn Breaks Above 450: Corn futures have continued pressing higher after recently breaking through resistance near 450. That level now transitions into initial support, with secondary support found at a band of moving averages near 436. Overhead resistance is located near 495, marking the April 2025 high.

  • Soybeans are trading sharply lower following President Trump’s comments this weekend stating that he may delay the US China summit if China does not help to clear the Strait of Hormuz. Trump stressed China’s dependence on oil from the Middle East and demanded Beijing’s help to unblock the waterway.
  • May soybeans are down 31-1/2 cents to $11.93-3/4 while November is down 11-1/4 cents to $11.50-1/4. May soybean meal is down $7.10 to $315.60 and May soybean oil is down 1.10 cents to 66.34 cents.
  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans as of March 10. They bought 23,205 contracts increasing their net long position to 222,107 contracts. They bought 33,329 contracts of bean oil and bought 18,574 contracts of meal.

  • Wheat is mixed to start the week with May Chicago wheat down 4-1/2 cents to $6.09 likely following the rest of the grain complex. May KC wheat is up 2-1/2 cents to $6.32-1/4, and Minn wheat is down 3-1/2 cents to $6.42-1/4.
  • Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of Chicago wheat by 3,455 contracts decreasing their net short position to 22,345 contracts. They bought 7,559 contracts of KC wheat which increased their net long position to 9,425 contracts. 
  • FranceAgriMer lowered its estimate of 2025/26 French soft wheat exports outside the EU for the fourth consecutive month, trimming the forecast by 0.1 MMT to 7.10 MMT. The reduction also lifted projected ending stocks to a 16-year high. Despite the cut, exports at 7.10 MMT would still be roughly double the volume shipped outside the EU last season.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

3-13 Opening Update: Soybeans Lead Grain Markets Lower as Oil Slips

  • Corn futures are slightly lower this morning as the market continues to assess developments in the Middle East. May corn is down 1/2 cent at $4.62, while December futures are 1-3/4 cents lower at $4.88-1/4.
  • The U.S. government is expected to soon release its final rules on biofuel blending requirements, a move that could boost demand for crops used as biofuel feedstocks.
  • U.S. farmers are expected to plant fewer corn acres this spring as rising fertilizer and fuel costs, intensified by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, increase overall production expenses.

Corn Breaks Above 450: Corn futures have continued pressing higher after recently breaking through resistance near 450. That level now transitions into initial support, with secondary support found at a band of moving averages near 436. Overhead resistance is located near 495, marking the April 2025 high.

  • Soybean futures are lower this morning as the market faces technical selling and profit-taking after rallying more than $1.50 since mid-January. May soybeans are down 11 cents at $12.16-1/4, while November futures are 8 cents lower at $11.59.
  • Soybeans are facing pressure from weakness in soybean oil, which followed a pullback in crude oil after the U.S. issued a 30-day waiver allowing countries to purchase Russian oil and petroleum products stranded at sea, easing immediate supply concerns.
  • On Thursday, Brazilian trade groups Abiove and Anec voiced concerns over recent developments affecting soybean exports to China after Cargill announced it had halted shipments to the Asian nation due to changes in Brazil’s inspection procedures.

  • The wheat complex is mixed to start the session. May Chicago wheat is down 1/4 cent at $5.98-1/4, Kansas City May futures are off 1/4 cent at $6.13-1/4, and Minneapolis spring wheat is up 1 cent at $6.35-1/2.
  • USDA reported an increase of 16.7 million bushels in wheat export sales for the 2025/26 marketing year, along with an additional 1.5 million bushels for 2026/27. Weekly shipments totaled 15.9 million bushels, falling short of the roughly 17.5 million bushels per week needed to meet USDA’s 900 million bushel export projection. Total wheat export commitments for 2025/26 now stand at 863 million bushels, running 12% ahead of last year’s pace.
  • FranceAgriMer lowered its estimate of 2025/26 French soft wheat exports outside the EU for the fourth consecutive month, trimming the forecast by 0.1 MMT to 7.10 MMT. The reduction also lifted projected ending stocks to a 16-year high. Despite the cut, exports at 7.10 MMT would still be roughly double the volume shipped outside the EU last season.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

3-12 Opening Update: Grains Trading Higher as Cargill Halts Bean Exports to China

  • Corn futures are trading higher again to start the day as crude oil continues to rally and fund money flows into commodities. May corn is up 5-1/4 cents to $4.65-1/2 while December is up 4 cents to $4.93.
  • Yesterday’s weekly petroleum report saw US ethanol stocks falling by 2.9% to 25.58m bbl which is significantly lower than the analyst estimate of 26.443m bbl. Plant production of 1.126m b/d compared to estimates of 1.108m.
  • Estimates for today’s export sales report as of March 5 see corn sales in a range between 1,000k and 2,000k tons with an average guess of 1,513k. This would compare to 2,177k a week ago and 981k a year ago.

Corn Breaks Above 450: Corn futures have continued pressing higher after recently breaking through resistance near 450. That level now transitions into initial support, with secondary support found at a band of moving averages near 436. Overhead resistance is located near 495, marking the April 2025 high.

  • Soybean futures are trading sharply higher again today but are still shy of taking out Monday’s high. Today’s move is driven by news that Cargill has halted Brazilian soybean shipments to China due to inspection changes made by the Brazilian government. The Ag Ministry has implemented a stricter sanitary evaluation which has made compliance difficult for traders.
  • May soybean futures are up 14-1/4 cents to $12.28-1/2, and the high of the year has been $12.33-3/4. November soybeans are up 5-1/2 cents to $11.69. May soybean meal is up $4.10 to $316.40 and May soybean oil is up 0.61 cents to 67.77 cents.
  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 300k and 800k tons with an average guess of 400k. This would compare to 384k tons last week and 737k at this time a year ago.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher to start the day along with the rest of the grain complex as trade fears that the war will drag on. May Chicago wheat is up 8 cents to $6.02-1/2, KC is up 7 cents to $6.20-1/4, and Minn is up 6-1/2 cents to $6.44-1/2.
  • Russian wheat exports for March are expected to nearly double year over year. March exports are expected to reach 3.7 million tons which would be nearly double the volume of March 2025 and would be well above the 5-year average of around 2.9m tons.
  • Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 200k and 450k tons with an average guess of 317k tons. This would compare to 258k last week and 866k tons a year ago at this time.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

3-11 Opening Update: Grains Higher as Iran Launches Fresh Attacks on Gulf

  • Corn futures are trading higher this morning as Iran targets more commercial ships in the Gulf area, airports, and threatens to start targeting banks and financial institutions. Crude oil is up $2.67 to $86.02 per barrel, and this is likely supporting grains.
  • May corn futures are up 4-1/2 cents o $4.56-3/4 while December is up 4-3/4 cents to $4.84-1/2. Yesterday’s WASDE report held virtually no changes, so corn is likely being moved by outside markets.
  • Yesterday’s WASDE report saw US ending stocks for 25/26 unchanged at 2.127 billion bushels and world ending stocks increased to 292.8 mmt from 289.0 last month. Argentinian corn production was lowered to 52.0 mmt from 53.0, and Brazilian corn production was increased to 132.0 mmt from 131.0.

Corn Breaks Above 450: Corn futures have continued pressing higher after recently breaking through resistance near 450. That level now transitions into initial support, with secondary support found at a band of moving averages near 436. Overhead resistance is located near 495, marking the April 2025 high.

  • Soybean futures are trading sharply higher thanks to the move higher in soybean oil and crude. May soybeans are up 14-1/2 cents to $12.16-1/4 while November is up 8-3/4 cents to $11.62-1/4. May soybean meal is down $1.00 to $313.50 and soybean oil is up 2.07 cents to 67.60 cents.
  • Yesterday’s WASDE report saw US ending stocks unchanged at 350 mb and world ending stocks lowered by 0.2 mmt to 125.3 mmt. Argentinian production estimates were lowered to 48.0 mmt from 48.5 mmt, and Brazil was unchanged at 180.0 mmt.
  • Brazilian soybean exports are expected to reach 16.47 mmt in March which would compare to 16.09 mmt estimated the previous week, and soybean meal exports are expected to reach 2.82 mmt from the earlier estimate of 2.49 mmt. Brazilian offers are more than a dollar cheaper than the US.

  • All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning as continued fighting in Iran supports crude oil prices and commodities in general. May Chicago wheat is up 8-1/2 cents to $5.99-1/4, KC is up 9-1/2 cents to $6.18, and Minn is up 1-1/4 cents to $6.36-1/4.
  • Yesterday’s WASDE report saw US wheat ending stocks unchanged at 931 mb and world ending stocks lowered by just 0.5 mmt to 277.0 mmt.
  • USDA reported winter wheat ratings fell 22% month over month amid limited snow cover and expanding drought across the Southern Plains, raising concerns about potential yield losses.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

3-10 Opening Update: Energy Market Reversal Pressures Grain Futures

  • Corn futures are trading lower this morning as the market faces spillover weakness from the energy complex. May corn is down 3-3/4 cents at $4.50, while December futures are 4-1/2 cents lower at $4.77-1/4.
  • Oil prices retreated sharply amid hopes that the conflict with Iran may conclude sooner than expected after comments from U.S. President Donald Trump suggesting the military operation could be nearing its end and outlining plans to contain energy costs.
  • Earlier in the conflict, crude had surged above $100 per barrel on fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East and potential shipping problems through key routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, but prices eased as traders began pricing in the possibility of de-escalation.

Corn Breaks Above 450: Corn futures have continued pressing higher after recently breaking through resistance near 450. That level now transitions into initial support, with secondary support found at a band of moving averages near 436. Overhead resistance is located near 495, marking the April 2025 high.

  • Soybean futures are trading lower this morning alongside corn and wheat, facing spillover weakness from the energy markets. May soybeans are down 3-1/4 cents at $11.93, while November futures are 2-1/4 cents lower at $11.46.
  • Soybean futures retreated after briefly reaching a nearly three-year high in yesterday’s session, following a decline in crude oil prices after President Trump indicated the ongoing conflict in the Middle East may be nearing its end.
  • Brazil’s soybean production is forecast slightly lower at 179.06 million metric tons, down about 1 million tons from prior estimates. U.S. export inspections showed 879,190 tons of soybeans shipped in the week ending March 5, a decline of 24% from the previous week.

  • The wheat complex is lower across the board this morning as markets remove risk premium amid signs of easing global tensions. May Chicago wheat is down 7-1/4 cents at $5.96, Kansas City May futures are 5-3/4 cents lower at $6.14, and Minneapolis spring wheat is down 11 cents at $6.35.
  • Wheat futures stabilized at lower price levels, as oil prices retreated and supply concerns eased amid hopes for a quicker resolution to the Iran conflict. The earlier rally appeared to be driven largely by speculative positioning tied to geopolitical developments, with subsequent technical selling reversing part of the advance.
  • USDA reported winter wheat ratings fell 22% month over month amid limited snow cover and expanding drought across the Southern Plains, raising concerns about potential yield losses.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

|

3-9 Opening Update: Crude Oil Strength Fuels Grain Market Rally

  • Corn futures have surged higher again this morning, drawing spillover support from strength in the energy markets. May futures traded as high as $4.76 earlier in the session but have since pulled back, currently up 8-3/4 cents at $4.69-1/4. December futures are 8-1/2 cents higher at $4.93.
  • Oil surged above $100 per barrel after several major Middle Eastern producers curtailed output and concerns intensified over prolonged disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The rally in energy markets has pushed up production, freight, and fertilizer costs, offering support to grain prices. At the same time, stronger crude oil prices have improved demand prospects for biofuels.
  • Gains were further amplified by short covering as traders exited bearish positions amid rising geopolitical risks. Despite the rally, abundant global grain supplies continue to cap the potential for a sustained move higher.

Corn Tests Key Support: Corn futures continue to test support from a band of moving averages near 435. A break below this level would expose the next layer of support at the 200-day moving average near 425. Overhead, structural resistance is defined at the upper end of the prior trading range in the March contract near 450.

  • Soybean futures have surged higher again this morning, leaving a nearly 10-cent technical gap on the May contract. May soybeans are up 17-3/4 cents at $12.18-1/4, while November futures are 16-1/2 cents higher at $11.63-1/4.
  • Oil prices jumped more than 4% as escalating tensions in the Middle East disrupted fuel supplies. The rally boosted demand for biodiesel feedstocks and raised concerns about tightening availability of agricultural oils. Rising energy prices often ripple through agricultural markets, as crops like soybeans and corn are key inputs in biofuel production and tend to attract increased participation from commodity funds.
  • Meanwhile, Brazilian farmers are harvesting a record soybean crop, a development that could temper China’s demand for U.S. supplies even as heightened global tensions keep markets on edge.

  • The wheat complex is higher across the board this morning, with spring wheat futures leading the advance. May Chicago wheat is up 8 cents at $6.24-3/4, Kansas City May futures are 10-1/4 cents higher at $6.45-3/4, and Minneapolis spring wheat is up 12-1/2 cents at $6.68-1/2.
  • USDA reported winter wheat ratings fell 22% month over month amid limited snow cover and expanding drought across the Southern Plains, raising concerns about potential yield losses. Additional support came from expectations that Russia’s wheat exports in 2025/26 could decline due to adverse weather and logistical challenges in the Black Sea region.
  • Still, gains may be limited by a firm U.S. dollar and ample global supplies following strong South American harvests. Traders are now turning their attention to Tuesday’s March WASDE report for updated projections on global supply and ending stocks.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.