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• Corn futures are trading quietly higher to start the day in more sideways action. December is up 1/4 cent to $4.17 and March is up 1/4 cent as well to $4.32-1/2. So far this week, corn has gained 4 cents.
• Brazilian corn production for 25/26 is estimated between 128.9 and 148.2 mmt with an average guess of 138.4 mmt as strong demand drives the expansion of acreage. This estimate is above the USDA’s most recent guess of 131 mmt.
• Estimates for this week’s ethanol production report see production higher than last week at 1.079 million barrels per day and stockpile estimates lower at 22.628m bbl bs 22.72m a week ago.

Corn Futures Find Support: Corn futures have trended sideways to lower over the past month, pressured by harvest selling and the bearish September Grain Stocks report. The market found support in the 50-day moving average and October 1 low. The market was able to close above the 100-day moving average, which will now offer support.

• Soybean futures are higher this morning following bullish crush numbers yesterday. November is up 4-1/2 cents at $10.11 and March is up 4-3/4 at $10.44-1/2. December soybean meal is up $0.30 to $276.20 and December bean oil is up 0.39 cents to 51.19 cents.
• The NOPA crush report for September showed US soybean crush topping estimates at 197.86 million bushels which was up 4.2% from August and up 11.6% from September last year. Domestic demand is encouraging given Chinese absence.
• China has held off on large purchases of Brazilian soybeans for December and January delivery as a result of high Brazilian premiums. China still needs roughly 9 mmt of soybeans and could tap into state reserves to meet short term needs.

Soybeans Fail to Break Resistance: Soybean futures have pressed lower following concerns of worsening trade relations between the U.S. and China. Following this news, soybean futures fell away from a zone of strong technical resistance and have since traded sideways as the market awaits additional information. The first point of technical support lies at the psychological level of 1000, with a secondary point of trend support near 974.

• All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with Chicago wheat down 2-1/2 cents to $4.96-1/4, KC wheat down 2-1/2 cents to $4.85-3/4, and Minn wheat down 3 cents to $5.48. Chicago is still 4 cents off its contract lows from earlier this week.
• Russia reportedly sees their grain export potential for 25/26 at 50 mmt and has already harvested nearly 132 mmt of grain and 90 mmt of wheat with harvest 91% complete. Russia has also resumed exporting wheat to Indonesia after trade negotiations.
• In Australia, rains are forecast to increase in the second half of October along with cooler temperatures through the next few weeks. This weather pattern will be favorable for wheat development.

Chicago Wheat Breaks Below Support: Wheat futures have fallen below the technical support level of 502 driven by the strength in the U.S. dollar. The first point of technical support is near 475, a relative low established in June of 2020. The first point of technical resistance is near 519 at the 50-day moving average.  

KC Wheat Fails to Find Support, Makes New Lows: KC wheat has trended lower following contract rollover on August 14. The market has since returned to price levels not seen since the fall of 2020. The first point of technical support can be found near 465, a consolidation range from September of 2020. The first point of technical resistance is near 510, at the 50-day moving average.

Spring Wheat Presses Lower: Spring wheat futures have failed to find solid support, trading at the lowest price since December 2020. The first point of strong resistance sits near 574 at the 50-day moving average. A second point can be found through a cluster of moving averages near 600. Technical support can be found near 540, the bottom of a consolidation range from December of 2020.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

• Corn futures are trading lower this morning following yesterday’s slight move higher in overall quiet trade. December futures are down 1-1/2 cents to $4.11-1/2 while March is down 1-3/4 to $4.27-1/2.
• The US inspected 1,130k tons of corn for export as of October  which compared the 1,702k tons last week and 514k a year ago. A strong number, there will not be another report until the government is reopened.
• The absence of key U.S. reports like the October WASDE, export sales, and CFTC added to bearish sentiment; Brazil corn futures also declined on a stronger real.  Trade estimates U.S. corn harvest at ~44% complete, with yields slightly below USDA’s 186.7 bpa; weaker feed demand could boost carryout toward 2.464 billion bu.

Corn Futures Seek Support: Corn futures have trended sideways to lower over the past month, pressured by harvest selling and the bearish September Grain Stocks report. The market is currently probing lower in search of strong technical support.

• Soybean futures are lower this morning with November down 3 cents to $10.03-1/2 and March down 1-1/2 cents to $10.22-1/2. December soybean meal is up $0.10 to $274.40 and December soybean oil is up 0.12 cents to 50.6 cents.
• Pressure has hit the soybean complex as a result of increased rhetoric by President Trump that tariffs on China may increase, or as of yesterday that the US “does not need to purchase soybean oil from China” and considering terminating that business.
• As of October  the US inspected 994k tons of soybeans for export which compared to 783k tons last week and 1,908k a year ago at this time. Year to date, inspections are down 26%.

Soybean Fail to Break Resistance: Soybean futures have pressed lower following concerns of worsening trade relations between the U.S. and China. Following this news, soybean futures fell away from a zone of strong technical resistance. The first point of technical support lies at the psychological level of 1000, with a secondary point of trend support near 974.

• All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning with Chicago wheat down 3-3/4 cents to $4.96-1/2, KC down 3 cents to $4.85-1/2, and Minn wheat down 1-1/2 cents to $5.52. Prices are 5 cents off yesterday’s contract low.
• The US inspected 444k tons of wheat as of October 9 compared to 548k tons last week and 380k a year ago. Inspections are up 18.1% on the year.
• Russia’s 2026 wheat acres are expected to be down 6%, and its current export pace is lagging USDA’s 45.0 mmt estimate, implying an active Oct-Jan export window is needed to meet the  goal. Trade estimates U.S. winter wheat plantings at 66% complete.

Chicago Wheat Breaks Below Support: Wheat futures have fallen below the technical support level of 502 driven by the strength in the U.S. dollar. The first point of technical support is near 475, a relative low established in June of 2020. The first point of technical resistance is near 519 at the 50-day moving average.  

KC Wheat Fails to Find Support, Makes New Lows: KC wheat has trended lower following contract rollover on August 14. The market has since returned to price levels not seen since the fall of 2020. The first point of technical support can be found near 465, a consolidation range from September of 2020. The first point of technical resistance is near 510, at the 50-day moving average.

Spring Wheat Presses Lower: Spring wheat futures have failed to find solid support, trading at the lowest price since December 2020. The first point of strong resistance sits near 574 at the 50-day moving average. A second point can be found through a cluster of moving averages near 600. Technical support can be found near 540, the bottom of a consolidation range from December of 2020.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

• Corn futures are trading unchanged to slightly lower this morning. December corn futures are down 1/4 cent to 410-1/2 and March futures are down 3/4 cent to 426-1/2.
• Dalian corn futures hit new contract lows, pressured by expanding U.S. harvest and expectations that the final 30% of the U.S. harvest could strain storage and weigh on futures and basis.
• The absence of key U.S. reports (October WASDE, export sales, CFTC) added to bearish sentiment; Brazil corn futures also declined on a stronger real.  Trade estimates U.S. corn harvest at ~44% complete, with yields slightly below USDA’s 186.7 bpa; weaker feed demand could boost carryout toward 2.464 billion bu.

Corn Futures Seek Support: Corn futures have trended sideways to lower over the past month, pressured by harvest selling and the bearish September Grain Stocks report. The market is currently probing lower in search of strong technical support.

• Soybean futures are lower this morning with November futures down 4-1/4 cents to 1003-1/2 and January futures down 4-1/4 cents to 1021.
• The Nov/Jan spread widened to -18 as Dalian soy complex futures fell, pressured by lower crude oil and a lack of key U.S. reports, adding to bearish sentiment.
• China’s new tariffs on U.S.-operated vessels increase the cost of U.S. soybeans, while U.S. harvest progress is estimated near 60% and some expect final yields below USDA’s 53.0 bpa.  Trade sees potential for U.S. soybean exports to fall 435 million bu short of USDA’s 1.685 billion bu estimate.

Soybean Fail to Break Resistance: Soybean futures have pressed lower following concerns of worsening trade relations between the U.S. and China. Following this news, soybean futures fell away from a zone of strong technical resistance. The first point of technical support lies at the psychological level of 1000, with a secondary point of trend support near 974.

• Wheat futures are all lower this morning. December Chicago wheat futures are down 3-3/4 cents to 493. December KC wheat is down 3-1/2  cents to 477-3/4, and December MPLS wheat is down 1-1/4 to 5.5025.
• The absence of the USDA October WASDE, export sales, and CFTC reports is bearish, with some expecting the missing data would have included upward revisions to Argentina, Russia, and Canada crops.
• Russia’s 2026 wheat acres are expected to be down 6%, and its current export pace is lagging USDA’s 45.0 mmt estimate, implying an active Oct-Jan export window is needed to meet the  goal. Trade estimates U.S. winter wheat plantings at 66% complete.

Chicago Wheat Breaks Below Support: Wheat futures have fallen below the technical support level of 502 driven by the strength in the U.S. dollar. The first point of technical support is near 475, a relative low established in June of 2020. The first point of technical resistance is near 519 at the 50-day moving average.  

KC Wheat Fails to Find Support, Makes New Lows: KC wheat has trended lower following contract rollover on August 14. The market has since returned to price levels not seen since the fall of 2020. The first point of technical support can be found near 465, a consolidation range from September of 2020. The first point of technical resistance is near 510, at the 50-day moving average.

Spring Wheat Presses Lower: Spring wheat futures have failed to find solid support, trading at the lowest price since December 2020. The first point of strong resistance sits near 574 at the 50-day moving average. A second point can be found through a cluster of moving averages near 600. Technical support can be found near 540, the bottom of a consolidation range from December of 2020.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

• Corn futures are trading slightly higher this morning. December corn futures are up 3-4 cent to 413-7/4 and March futures are up 1/4 cent to 429-1/4.
• The lack of USDA data continues to weigh on the market as traders take a defensive stance. Private analysts currently estimate U.S. corn yield slightly lower than the USDA’s 186.7, but expect feed and residual usage to decline 200 million bushels. If realized, this would increase ending stocks to 2,464 million bushels. 
• The U.S. Dollar is trading higher this morning after failing to break through overhead resistance on Friday. Additional strength in the U.S. dollar will erode U.S. grains’ competitiveness in the global marketplace.

Corn Futures Hang Near Support: Corn futures have trended sideways to lower over the past month, pressured by harvest selling and the bearish September Grain Stocks report. The market appears to be consolidating around the 100-day moving average, with upside resistance near the September highs at 431 and support at the 50-day moving average around 410.

• Soybean futures have started the week higher with November futures up 1-1/2 cents to 1008-1/4 and January futures up 2 cents to 1025-1/4.
• November soybean futures are trading at their lowest level since early October as renewed U.S. – China trade tensions have driven the market lower.
• On Friday, President Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, though the White House later indicated a willingness to reopen negotiations. Uncertainty remains over whether President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet for discussions at the upcoming APEC summit.

Soybean Futures Bounce at Support: Soybean futures moved lower in rapid fashion, breaking through structural support as well as a cluster of three major moving averages. Trendline support lies near 970.

• Wheat futures have started the day mixed. December Chicago wheat futures are down 2-1/2 cents to 496. December KC wheat is down 1-1/2  cents to 481-1/2, and December MPLS wheat is unchanged at 5.52.
• Private analysts expect that if the October WASDE report had been released, USDA would have raised Argentina, Russia, and Canada’s wheat production estimates.
• SovEcon has raised its estimate for Russia’s 2025 wheat production, increasing it by 600,000 MT to 87.8 MMT. This compares to the USDA’s most recent forecast of 85 MMT. Additionally, Russia’s agriculture ministry reduced the wheat export tax by 35% to 318.6 rubles per metric ton through October 21 in an effort to boost export demand.

Chicago Wheat Consolidates: Wheat futures have been consolidating following their retest of the mid-August low. The first point of technical resistance can be found near 521 at the 50-day moving average, and a secondary point near 532 at the 100-day moving average. Support can be found at 502, a multi-year low.

KC Wheat Fails to Find Support, Makes New Lows: KC wheat has trended lower following contract rollover on August 14. The market has since returned to price levels not seen since the fall of 2020. The first point of technical support can be found near 488, a multi-year low. The first point of technical resistance is near 513, at the 50-day moving average.

Spring Wheat Consolidates Below Support: Spring wheat futures have failed to find solid support, trading at the lowest price since December 2020. The first point of strong resistance sits near 574 at the 50-day moving average. A second point can be found through a cluster of moving averages near 600. Technical support can be found at 555, a multi-year low.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

• Corn futures are trading lower this morning. December corn futures are down 1 cent to 417-1/4 and March futures are down 1 cent to 433.
• The October WASDE report, originally due yesterday, was not released due to the ongoing government shutdown. The October report is critical for updating yield and production estimates as harvest progresses.
• The U.S. Dollar is trading lower this morning after closing at a two month high yesterday. Continued strength in the dollar will act as a headwind for U.S. grain exports.

Corn Futures Hang Near Support: Corn futures have trended sideways to lower over the past month, pressured by harvest selling and the bearish September Grain Stocks report. The market appears to be consolidating around the 100-day moving average, with upside resistance near the September highs at 431 and support at the 50-day moving average around 410.

• Soybean futures have fallen overnight with November futures down 8 cents to 1014-1/4 and January futures down 8-1/4 cents to 1030-1/4.
• China’s expansion of export restrictions on rare earth metals has created doubts that an agreement on soybean purchases can be reached.
• The lack of guidance from the October WASDE report is pressuring the soybean market. Analysts expected to see a yield cut in the October report if it was released.

Soybean Futures Bounce at Support: Soybean futures moved lower in rapid fashion, breaking through structural support as well as a cluster of three major moving averages. Trendline support lies near 970.

• Wheat futures have started the day lower. December Chicago wheat futures are down 1-3/4 cents to 504-3/4. December KC wheat is down 2-1/2  cents to 487-1/4, and December MPLS wheat is down 1 cent to 5.57.
• The Rosario Grain Exchange raised Argentina’s wheat production estimate by 3 mmt to 23 mmt, which would mark a record high. The increase reflects strong yield potential and favorable soil moisture following above-average rainfall. For comparison, USDA’s latest forecast stands at 19.5 mmt.
• Market intelligence firm Expana raised its EU soft wheat production estimate by 0.3 mmt to 136.4 mmt, still below USDA’s 140 mmt forecast. If realized, the crop would set a record high and come in 22.8 mmt above last year’s output.

Chicago Wheat Consolidates: Wheat futures have been consolidating following their retest of the mid-August low. The first point of technical resistance can be found near 521 at the 50-day moving average, and a secondary point near 532 at the 100-day moving average. Support can be found at 502, a multi-year low.

KC Wheat Fails to Find Support, Makes New Lows: KC wheat has trended lower following contract rollover on August 14. The market has since returned to price levels not seen since the fall of 2020. The first point of technical support can be found near 488, a multi-year low. The first point of technical resistance is near 513, at the 50-day moving average.

Spring Wheat Consolidates Below Support: Spring wheat futures have failed to find solid support, trading at the lowest price since December 2020. The first point of strong resistance sits near 574 at the 50-day moving average. A second point can be found through a cluster of moving averages near 600. Technical support can be found at 555, a multi-year low.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

• Corn futures are trading lower this morning. December corn futures are down 1-1/4 cents to 420-3/4 and March futures are down 1-1/2 cents to 436-1/4.
• Corn spreads are showing renewed strength on the front end, with the Dec–Mar spread narrowing to its tightest level since July. The move may reflect strong demand, producer holding, or tighter nearby supplies supporting the front months.
• The U.S. Dollar is trading at a two month high. Continued strength in the dollar will act as a headwind for U.S. grain exports.

Corn Futures Hang Near Support: Corn futures have trended sideways to lower over the past month, pressured by harvest selling and the bearish September Grain Stocks report. The market appears to be consolidating around the 100-day moving average, with upside resistance near the September highs at 431 and support at the 50-day moving average around 410.

• Soybean futures have started the day lower with November futures down 4-3/4 cents to 1024-3/4 and January futures down 4-3/4 cents to 1039-1/2.
• A key hurdle for U.S. soybean markets and potential trade progress with China is the planned implementation of port fees on Chinese vessels entering U.S. ports, set to begin October 14. Analysts warn the new fees could hinder ongoing trade negotiations between the two countries.
• Private analysts surveyed by Reuters expect the USDA to lower its soybean yield estimate once the agency resumes releasing data.

Soybean Futures Bounce at Support: Soybean futures moved lower in rapid fashion, breaking through structural support as well as a cluster of three major moving averages. Trendline support lies near 970.

• Wheat has started the day higher. December Chicago wheat futures are up 2-1/4 cents to 509-1/2. December KC wheat is up 2-1/4 cents to 495-1/2, and December MPLS wheat is up 4 cents to 5.59.
• Traders will not receive the scheduled monthly WASDE report due to the government shutdown, though private analysts continue to release estimates. A Bloomberg survey pegs 2025/26 U.S. wheat ending stocks at 880 mb, up from 844 mb in September, while global carryout is estimated at 265.9 mmt versus 264.1 mmt in the last USDA report.
• SovEcon raised its forecast for Ukraine’s 2025 wheat crop by 1.5 mmt to 22.9 mmt, citing higher yields. The group also lifted its 2025/26 wheat export estimate to 16.8 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Consolidates: Wheat futures have been consolidating following their retest of the mid-August low. The first point of technical resistance can be found near 521 at the 50-day moving average, and a secondary point near 532 at the 100-day moving average. Support can be found at 502, a multi-year low.

KC Wheat Fails to Find Support, Makes New Lows: KC wheat has trended lower following contract rollover on August 14. The market has since returned to price levels not seen since the fall of 2020. The first point of technical support can be found near 488, a multi-year low. The first point of technical resistance is near 513, at the 50-day moving average.

Spring Wheat Consolidates Below Support: Spring wheat futures have failed to find solid support, trading at the lowest price since December 2020. The first point of strong resistance sits near 574 at the 50-day moving average. A second point can be found through a cluster of moving averages near 600. Technical support can be found at 555, a multi-year low.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

• Corn futures are trading higher this morning. December corn futures are up 1 cent to 420-3/4 and March futures are up 1/4 cent to 436-1/2.
• Private analysts released their own estimates for yield and national production. Current expectations call for yield to be lowered to 185 bushels per acre, with total production projected at 16.645 billion bushels. Ending stocks would remain burdensome at 2.231 billion bushels.
• The U.S. Dollar is has broken through resistance this morning. A daily close above the resistance level could spark additional dollar strength, potentially limiting export demand.

Corn Futures Hang Near Support: Corn futures have trended sideways to lower over the past month, pressured by harvest selling and the bearish September Grain Stocks report. The market appears to be consolidating around the 100-day moving average, with upside resistance near the September highs at 431 and support at the 50-day moving average around 410.

• Soybean futures have started the day higher with November futures up 3 cents to 1025 and January futures up 1-3/4 cents to 1040-3/4.
• Harvest continues to advance rapidly across the U.S., with progress estimated at nearly 40% complete. This figure comes from private analysts, as the Crop Progress report has not been released due to the government shutdown.
• Harvest pressure remains a key headwind for soybeans with weather in much of the Midwest expected be be ideal for further progress over the next five days.

Soybean Futures Bounce at Support: Soybean futures moved lower in rapid fashion, breaking through structural support as well as a cluster of three major moving averages. Trendline support lies near 970.

• Wheat has started the day mixed. December Chicago wheat futures are up 1/4 cent to 507. December KC wheat is down 1/4 cent to 491-3/4, and December MPLS wheat is unchanged at 5.52.
• Bangladesh has agreed to purchase 220,000 metric tons of U.S. wheat at $308/mt on a DNF basis, as part of a government-to-government trade agreement established earlier this year between the two nations.
• The dollar’s strength this week, reflecting a drop in the euro amid pollical turmoil in France, has curbed the competitiveness of U.S. grain on the world market.

Chicago Wheat Consolidates: Wheat futures have been consolidating following their retest of the mid-August low. The first point of technical resistance can be found near 521 at the 50-day moving average, and a secondary point near 532 at the 100-day moving average. Support can be found at 502, a multi-year low.

KC Wheat Fails to Find Support, Makes New Lows: KC wheat has trended lower following contract rollover on August 14. The market has since returned to price levels not seen since the fall of 2020. The first point of technical support can be found near 488, a multi-year low. The first point of technical resistance is near 513, at the 50-day moving average.

Spring Wheat Consolidates Below Support: Spring wheat futures have failed to find solid support, trading at the lowest price since December 2020. The first point of strong resistance sits near 574 at the 50-day moving average. A second point can be found through a cluster of moving averages near 600. Technical support can be found at 555, a multi-year low.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

• Corn futures are trading in a mixed fashion this morning. December corn futures are up 1/2 cent to 422-1/4 and March futures are down 1/4 cent to 438.
• The FGIS can continue to release export inspections despite the government shutdown. For the week ending Oct. 2, U.S. corn export inspections totaled 1.599 MMT. Cumulative 2025/26 inspections have reached 264.1 mb, up 56% from a year ago.
• The U.S. Dollar is retesting the highs from yesterday’s trading session as political and fiscal concerns outside the U.S. have foreign traders seeking a stable safe haven. Continued strength in the dollar could begin acting as a headwind to U.S. grain exports.

Corn Futures Hang Near Support: Corn futures have trended sideways to lower over the past month, pressured by harvest selling and the bearish September Grain Stocks report. The market appears to be consolidating around the 100-day moving average, with upside resistance near the September highs at 431 and support at the 50-day moving average around 410.

• Soybean futures have started the day higher with November futures up 2-1/4 cents to 1020 and January futures up 1-3/4 cents to 1037-1/2.
• China continues to shun U.S. soybeans as the trade war continues. The Trump administration is expected to announce a farmer bail out plan as early as today.
• Brazil’s soybean planting is advancing at the second-fastest pace on record. Dry conditions have supported steady fieldwork, though the return of showers next week could begin slowing progress.

Soybean Futures Bounce at Support: Soybean futures moved lower in rapid fashion, breaking through structural support as well as a cluster of three major moving averages. Trendline support lies near 970.

• Wheat has started the day lower. December Chicago wheat futures are down 1/4 cent to 512-1/2. December KC wheat is down 1/2 cent to 495, and December MPLS wheat is unchanged at 5.56.
• Weekly wheat export inspections totaled 18.6 mb bringing 2025/26 cumulative inspections to 374.0 mb, up 18% from last year. Shipments are running ahead of USDA’s projected pace, with total exports forecast at 900 mb, up 9% year over year.
• Market analysts have estimated U.S. winter wheat planting progress at 50% complete as of Sunday. USDA’s crop progress report was not released due to the ongoing government shutdown.

Chicago Wheat Consolidates: Wheat futures have been consolidating following their retest of the mid-August low. The first point of technical resistance can be found near 521 at the 50-day moving average, and a secondary point near 532 at the 100-day moving average. Support can be found at 502, a multi-year low.

KC Wheat Fails to Find Support, Makes New Lows: KC wheat has trended lower following contract rollover on August 14. The market has since returned to price levels not seen since the fall of 2020. The first point of technical support can be found near 488, a multi-year low. The first point of technical resistance is near 513, at the 50-day moving average.

Spring Wheat Consolidates Below Support: Spring wheat futures have failed to find solid support, trading at the lowest price since December 2020. The first point of strong resistance sits near 574 at the 50-day moving average. A second point can be found through a cluster of moving averages near 600. Technical support can be found at 555, a multi-year low.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

• Corn futures are trading slightly higher this morning. December corn futures are up 3/4 cent to 419-3/4 and March futures are up 1/2 cent to 436-1/4.
• The U.S. Dollar saw a strong move this morning, with it recovering nearly all losses from the previous six trading sessions overnight. The dollar strengthening will serve as a headwind to U.S. grain exports as it makes U.S. products more expensive to foreign importers.
• The increased corn stocks from last week’s Grain Stocks report will continue to weigh on the market. Harvest selling is expected to add further pressure. 

Corn Futures Hang Near Support: Corn futures have trended sideways to lower over the past month, pressured by harvest selling and the bearish September Grain Stocks report. The market appears to be consolidating around the 100-day moving average, with upside resistance near the September highs at 431 and support at the 50-day moving average around 410.

• Soybean futures have started the day higher with November futures up 2-1/2 cents to 1020-1/2 and January futures up 2-1/2 cents to 1039-1/2.
• The soybean market will continue to look for guidance regarding any potential U.S. – China trade deals. So far, China has not purchased any U.S. soybeans throughout the harvest window.
• The U.S. Treasury Secretary made a statement last week that the federal government would support American farmers in light of China’s refusal to purchase U.S. soybeans.

Soybean Futures Bounce at Support: Soybean futures moved lower in rapid fashion, breaking through structural support as well as a cluster of three major moving averages. Trendline support lies near 970.

• Wheat has started the day higher. December Chicago wheat futures are up 1-1/4 cent to 516-1/2. December KC wheat is up 3/4 cent to 497-3/4, and December MPLS wheat is unchanged at 5.59.
• The rebound in the U.S. Dollar will potentially limit wheat export strength. Additional strength in the dollar trade will begin to weigh on the wheat market.
• The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports that 93% of Argentina’s wheat crop is rated good to excellent, up 4 points from last week. BAGE also raised its production estimate to 22 mmt earlier this week, compared to USDA’s most recent forecast of 19.5 mmt.

Chicago Wheat Fails to Find Support: Wheat futures continue to trade lower after finding resistance in the 100-day moving average and breaking below the 50-day moving average. The next point of technical support is near 502, at the one year low.

KC Wheat Makes New Low: December KC wheat broke through its 50-day moving average in a strong fashion following the September WASDE report. The market has since turned lower, breaking back below the 50-day moving average and continuing lower to trade at new lows.

Spring Wheat Seeks Support: Spring wheat futures have failed to find solid support, trading at the lowest price since August 26, 2024. The first point of strong resistance sits near 585 at the 50-day moving average. A second point can be found through a cluster of moving averages near 600.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

• Corn futures are trading slightly lower this morning. December corn futures are down 1/2 cent to 421-1/4 and March futures are down 3/4 cent to 437-1/4.
• Although the October WASDE report is unlikely to be released next week due to the government shutdown, private analysts continue to release corn yield projections. Two major firms have lowered estimates below the September forecasts, reinforcing the market’s expectation of declining yields that would likely have been reflected in the next WASDE.
• Strong export demand is expected to support corn cash prices as new bushels enter the pipeline. With government data unavailable, the cash market will be the key driver for corn futures.

Corn Futures Break Support: Following the release of the September Grains Stocks report, corn futures broke through the 100-day moving average and the lower end of the recent range. The 50-day moving average near 410 will now act as first support. A break below this level could open the door to a retest of the August lows near 370.

• Soybean futures have started the day lower with November futures down 2 cents to 1021-3/4 and January futures down 2-1/4 cents to 1039-1/2.
• The soybean market continues to experience support from President Trump’s tweet indicating he intends to make soybeans a major topic of discussion when he meets with the Chinese president in four weeks.
• StoneX raised its soybean yield estimate by 0.7 bpa to 53.9 bpa, lifting production by 69 mb to 4.326 bb. This is 25 mb above USDA’s September WASDE estimate.

Soybean Futures Break Support: Soybean futures moved lower in rapid fashion, breaking through structural support as well as a cluster of three major moving averages. Trendline support lies near 970.

• Wheat has started the day relatively quiet. December Chicago wheat futures are down 1/2 cent to 514-1/4. December KC wheat is unchanged at 499, and December MPLS wheat is unchanged at 5.61.
• Export sales data remain unavailable amid the U.S. government shutdown, and the October 9 WASDE report is at risk if the closure persists.
• Ukraine’s agriculture ministry now estimates 2026 winter wheat plantings at 5.2 million hectares, up 9% from its prior outlook, as farmers shift acres away from corn and sunflowers following recent drought.

Chicago Wheat Fails to Find Support: Wheat futures continue to trade lower after finding resistance in the 100-day moving average and breaking below the 50-day moving average. The next point of technical support is near 502, at the one year low.

KC Wheat Makes New Low: December KC wheat broke through its 50-day moving average in a strong fashion following the September WASDE report. The market has since turned lower, breaking back below the 50-day moving average and continuing lower to trade at new lows.

Spring Wheat Seeks Support: Spring wheat futures have failed to find solid support, trading at the lowest price since August 26, 2024. The first point of strong resistance sits near 585 at the 50-day moving average. A second point can be found through a cluster of moving averages near 600.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.