Corn futures are trading higher to start the day and are likely being supported by a jump in wheat prices. So far, May futures appear to be posting a V-bottom and have rallied 30 cents off the recent low.
The USDA will release its WASDE report tomorrow, and while major changes are not expected, trade will look to see if strong domestic and export demand recently will be acknowledged and lower the carryout.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of a whopping 117,702 contracts of corn as of March 4, leaving them with a net long position of 219,752 contracts. Over the past two trading days, funds have bought back an estimated 34,000 contracts.
Soybeans are trading slightly lower to start the week and have found resistance at the 100-day moving average in the May contract, hovering around $10.28. Soybean meal is higher today, while soybean oil is lower.
In tomorrow’s WASDE report, trade will also look for changes in demand to impact the ending stocks, but it is possible that the strong domestic crush demand could be offset by poor export demand, leaving things unchanged.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 43,696 contracts, leaving them with a new net short position of 35,487 contracts. They sold 33,383 contracts of bean oil and 22,151 contracts of bean meal.
All three wheat classes are trading higher this morning as the winter wheat crop begins to exit dormancy in dry conditions. In the Northern Plains, the crop is regarded as relatively poor, while the Southern Plains will be in need of moisture as they exit dormancy.
The US Plains and Black Sea region remain dry, while Russia’s export margins are improving. Trade expects the USDA to eventually reduce EU and Russia export estimates, though this could be offset by lower imports and stable world ending stocks.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of 14,785 contracts of Chicago wheat, leaving them with a net short position of 82,399 contracts. They sold 17,947 contracts of KC wheat, leaving them short 39,282 contracts.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Discussions between the US and Mexico could lead to Mexico excluding corn from its retaliatory tariff list, while the US may offer relief on some agricultural imports.
South Korea is tendering for corn again, with prices now near $240 per MT, down from $260 per MT. US PNW corn remains the cheapest option for Asian buyers, while US Gulf corn is now the cheapest option for North Africa.
In addition to tariff concerns, wheat futures have pressured the corn market, with May contracts for all three wheat classes hitting new contract lows this week.
Trade estimates Brazil’s soybean crop at 169.1 MMT (vs. USDA 169) and Argentina’s at 48.8 MMT (vs. USDA 49).
US soybean export commitments are up 13% YoY (vs. USDA estimate of 9%). USDA announced 20 MT of soyoil sold to an unknown buyer, but no new soybean sales.
US soybean board crush margins remain near a 3–4 month low.
The US Plains and Black Sea region remain dry, while Russia’s export margins are improving. Trade expects the USDA to eventually reduce EU and Russia export estimates, though this could be offset by lower imports and stable world ending stocks.
Argentina and Australia wheat prices are now competitive in North Africa. Matif wheat futures hit a six-month low, pressured by a stronger Euro.
Trade estimates US 2024/25 wheat carryout at 797 million bu (vs. USDA 794). The EU wheat crop is rated 74% good/excellent, which is below average but above last year.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Old crop corn is trading higher again this morning while new crop is slightly lower. May corn has moved back above its 200-day moving average, and the stochastics are now showing a crossover buy signal.
Yesterday, President Trump said that tariffs on automobiles from Mexico and Canada would be postponed another 30 days, which gave trade some hope that a better trade deal could be achieved.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 700k and 1,100k tons with an average guess of 892k tons. This would be lower than last week’s 923k and last year’s 1,110k tons.
Soybeans are higher again this morning as the market seems to shake off tariff concerns to some degree. May soybeans are still below all moving averages but have also shown a buy signal in their stochastics.
Talk of Chinese retaliatory tariffs on US soybeans shook the market, but in reality, they are unlikely to have a large effect on old crop sales, and there is optimism that an agreement can be made before new crop sales are impacted.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 300k and 550k tons with an average guess of 429k. This would be slightly higher than last week’s 415k but lower than a year ago at 680k tons.
All three wheat classes are trading higher again this morning, with Minneapolis wheat leading the way higher. This would be the second consecutively higher day after 8 straight days of losses. May wheat stochastics show a buy signal as well.
Russian wheat production is reportedly unchanged despite extremely cold temperatures, as they were accompanied by snow coverage. 25/26 Russian wheat production is estimated at 79.6 mmt.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 225k and 525k tons with an average guess of 333k. This would compare to 274k a week ago and 335k a year ago at this time.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher this morning taking back all of yesterday’s losses and then some with the May contract back above the 200-day moving average in a seemingly bottoming chart formation.
The US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested yesterday afternoon that a trade compromise with Canada and Mexico could be achieved as soon as today. This comes on the heels of 25% tariffs placed on the two countries.
Estimates for today’s EIA report see ethanol production lower than last week at 1.072m barrels per day. Stockpiles are estimated at 27.557m bbl compared to 27.571m a week ago.
Soybeans are trading higher this morning along with the rest of the grain complex taking back part of yesterday’s losses. May soybeans are trading back above the 10-dollar mark, and both soybean meal and oil are trading higher as well.
Yesterday’s talk of Chinese retaliatory tariffs on US soybeans shook the market, but in reality, they are unlikely to have a large effect on old crop sales, and there is optimism that an agreement can be made before new crop sales are impacted.
StoneX is expected to cut its forecast for Brazilian soybean production citing weather related issues that could hinder output. They maintain that the South American supplies will overwhelm the global market.
All three wheat classes are trading higher to start the day taking back nearly all of yesterday’s losses after making new contract lows. Optimism is back in the market following President Trump’s speech to Congress last night.
Russian wheat production is reportedly unchanged despite extremely cold temperatures as they were accompanied by snow coverage. 25/26 Russian wheat production is estimated at 79.6 mmt.
US winter wheat crop conditions were updated as of March 2, and Kansas and Oklahoma saw good to excellent ratings improve by 4 points and 1 point respectively. Crop conditions fell in Texas, Montana, Nebraska, and South Dakota.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower this morning after President Trump confirmed the 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada after much speculation. This is particularly bearish for corn as Mexico is the top importer of US corn. May futures are now trading below their 200-day moving average and have lost 70 cents from their recent high.
US corn used for ethanol came in at 457.4 million bushels in January which was below December but up 3.7% from January 2024.
Yesterday’s export inspections report saw 1.351m tons of corn inspected for export which was on the higher range of trade estimates and was above last week’s and last year’s inspections.
Soybeans are trading lower again this morning and are on track for a fifth consecutively lower close after China has said they would continue retaliating to US tariffs. May corn has fallen back below the 10-dollar mark, and both soybean meal and oil are trading lower as well.
After President Trump said that the US would double its tariffs on Chinese goods to 20%, China said it would halt the import of soybeans from three US entities and lumber from the US. They also placed 15% tariffs on other US agricultural goods.
StoneX is expected to cut its forecast for Brazilian soybean production citing weather related issues that could hinder output. They maintain that the South American supplies will overwhelm the global market.
Wheat is trading lower this morning along with the rest of the grain complex in response to the fresh tariffs. The US also exports wheat to Mexico in addition to corn. May corn futures are now just 3 cents off their contract lows.
US winter wheat crop conditions were updated as of March 2, and Kansas and Oklahoma saw good to excellent ratings improve by 4 points and 1 point respectively. Crop conditions fell in Texas, Montana, Nebraska, and South Dakota.
The US inspected 389.6k tons of wheat which was on par with last week’s inspections but higher than those of a year ago. Primary buyers were Mexico, the Philippines, and Thailand.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower this morning and continues it’s freefall with the March contract losing 55 cents since the recent high two weeks ago. The USDA’s estimate of more planted corn acres accelerated this sell-off.
Brazil is reportedly considering lowering corn ethanol import taxes in a bid to soothe relations with the US and improve the local popularity of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Nothing is set in stone, but the conversations will continue over the coming days.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds as sellers of corn as of February 25 selling 16,079 contracts which left them with a net long position of 337,454 contracts.
Soybeans are trading lower this morning as prices continue to slide putting the May contract below the 100-day moving average. The anticipation of lower planted acres this year has not been enough to offset poor demand. Soybean meal is lower while bean oil is higher.
It is being reported that China may hit back at the US with their own set of tariffs after President Trump pledged to double Chinese tariffs to 20%. China’s potential retaliatory tariffs would be on food and agricultural products.
Estimates for today’s January soybean crush is expected at 211.1 million bushels and would be down from 217.7 mb the previous month.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of soybeans by 8,317 contracts lowering their net long position to 8,209 contracts.
Wheat is trading higher to start the week as it attempts to avoid a sixth consecutively lower close. Wheat is nearing the end of its dormancy state, and this Wednesday’s USDA report will give updates on the wheat conditions.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of Chicago wheat by 6,037 contracts leaving them net short 67,614 contracts. Funds were buyers of KC wheat by 755 contracts leaving them short 21,335 contracts.
IKAR has reduced Russia’s wheat exports by 500,000 tonnes to 42.5 mt this season citing currency fluctuation causing the reduction in the estimates for exports.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is mixed to start the day with gains in the front months but losses in deferred contracts as trade now expects a large planted acreage number in corn this year. May corn is now 37 cents off last week’s high.
As of last Friday’s CFTC report, funds were long around 355,000 contracts of corn, but over the past 5 days, they are estimated to have sold 50,000 contracts with 24,000 sold just yesterday.
The USDA has estimated that 94 million acres of corn will be planted this year which would compare to 90.6 ma last year. This would increase ending stocks to 1.965 bb compared to 1.540 bb in 24/25.
Soybeans are trading higher this morning after yesterday the USDA estimated soybean planted acres lower than last year. Weather in South America continues to improve and soybeans continue to be sold more cheaply than US beans.
Yesterday, weekly soybean sales came in at 415k tons compared to 500k tons the previous week. Top buyers were China, Egypt, and Mexico.
The USDA Annual Outlook Forum projected 2025 soybean planted acreage at 84.4 million acres—down 2.7 million from 2024. While not official, these figures will serve as a baseline until the end of March when the planting intentions report is released.
Wheat is trading higher to start the day after a sharp sell-off yesterday that saw prices down as much as 19 cents. Pressure came from the USDA’s estimate that 47 million acres of wheat would be planted this year.
Yesterday’s export sales report saw wheat sales falling to 274k tons as of February 20 which was down from 631k tons the previous week. Top buyers were Taiwan, Mexico, and Japan.
IKAR has reduced Russia’s wheat exports by 500,000 tonnes to 42.5 mt this season citing currency fluctuation causing the reduction in the estimates for exports.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly lower this morning before the USDA will release their estimates for 2025 planted acres. May futures have lost 24 cents from last week’s high, and tomorrow is first notice day for March corn.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 800k and 1,650k tons with an average guess of 1,163k tons. This would compare to 1,454k a week ago and 1,247k a year ago at this time.
Analysts are expecting the USDA to announce that corn planted acres for 2025 will come in at 93.6 ma which would compare to 90.6 ma last year. This would put ending stocks at 1.91 bb compared to ending stocks in 24/25 of 1.54 bb.
Soybeans are trading higher this morning as traders expect the USDA to put out a lower planted acreage report today. Soybeans have been in a slow downtrend over the past month. Both soybean meal and oil are trading higher as well.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 200k and 600k tons with an average guess of 409k tons. This would be a weak number and would compare to 500k last week and 17k a year ago.
The USDA Annual Outlook Forum, set to conclude this week, is expected to project 2025 soybean planted acreage at 84.4 million acres—down 2.7 million from 2024. While not official, these figures will serve as a baseline until the end of March when the planting intentions report is released.
Wheat is mixed to start the day with Chicago and KC trading lower while Minneapolis is slightly higher. March Chicago wheat has given up nearly 50 cents since last week after breaking above the 6-dollar mark.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 300k and 650k tons with an average estimate of 481k tons. This would compare to 631k last week and 322k a year ago at this time.
Today’s outlook forum is expected to estimate wheat planted acres at 46.7 ma which would be slightly higher than last year’s 46.1 ma. Ending stocks are estimated to be higher at 0.83 bb compared to 0.794 bb last year.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading sideways to slightly lower this morning as traders await developments on the proposed tariff deadline with Canada and Mexico.
After a strong finish to 2024 and a solid start to 2025, corn export sales have slowed toward the end of February, with the last daily flash sale reported on February 14. Despite this, U.S. NOLA corn remains priced competitively below both Brazilian and Argentine export offerings.
In Argentina, recent rains following the drought in the country are marking an inflection point for the corn and soy crops. The rain is expected to continue over the next few days and is expected to improve the corn conditions.
Soybeans are trading lower this morning after Tuesday’s impressive turnaround price action where May futures managed to close over 11 cents off of their daily low.
The USDA Annual Outlook Forum, set to conclude this week, is expected to project 2025 soybean planted acreage at 84.4 million acres—down 2.7 million from 2024. While not official, these figures will serve as a baseline until the end of March when the planting intentions report is released.
Despite a slight reduction from early-season estimates, all indications point to a record-breaking South American soybean crop. This is likely to keep the global balance sheet heavy and continue to keep a lid on prices.
All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning again and are on pace for their third consecutive session of lower prices.
SovEcon reduced its forecast for Russia’s wheat exports in the 2024/25 season to 42.2 mmt, from 42.8 mmt, reflecting persistently slow shipments and low profitability in export operations. The USDA in their latest WASDE had Russian wheat exports pegged at 45.5 mmt.
Moisture and warmth forecast for much of the U.S. Plains over the next two weeks will provide a better idea of any winterkill damage from recent cold snaps.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower this morning for the second consecutive day this week after President Trump said that tariffs on Mexico and Canada were going forward this time around with more import taxes to come.
Yesterday, the US inspected 1.134 million tons of corn for export as of February 20. This was within the average trade estimates but was down slightly from the previous week and a year ago at this time.
In Argentina, recent rains following the drought in the country are marking an inflection point for the corn and soy crops. The rain is expected to continue over the next few days and is expected to improve the corn conditions.
Soybeans are trading lower again and are on track for a second consecutively lower close due to pressure from looming tariffs and slowing demand due to Brazil’s large soy harvest. Soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is higher.
Yesterday’s export inspections report saw 859k tons of soybeans inspected for export as of February 20. This was within trade expectations and was higher than last week but lower than a year ago at this time. Top destinations were to China, Mexico, and Japan.
In Brazil, the 24/25 soybean harvest is reportedly 39% complete as of February 20. This compares to 23% completion a week ago and 40% at the same time last year. The soy output is now estimated at 168.2 mmt compared to 171 mmt last month.
All three wheat classes are trading lower this morning again and have broken their uptrend line now finding support at the 100-day moving average. Cash wheat values in the European Union have fallen which could be adding pressure.
Yesterday’s export inspections report saw 375.5k tons of wheat inspected as of Feb 20. This was higher than last week’s but lower than a year ago at this time. Primary destinations were to Mexico, South Korea, and Malaysia.
The European winter wheat crops are reportedly mostly in fair to good condition. There have been irreversible losses to yield potentials in some parts of the EU according to MARS due to weather.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
