Corn futures are trading lower again this morning, with December dipping to a new contract low during overnight trade.
Rainfall continues to move through Iowa, Nebraska, and the Northern Corn Belt, reinforcing a largely non-threatening weather outlook for the U.S. corn crop into early July.
In Brazil, Agroconsult raised its estimate for second crop corn production to a record 123.3 MMT—10.4 MMT above their May forecast. The safrinha crop is expected to account for roughly 80% of Brazil’s total corn output this season.
Soybeans are trading slightly lower to start the day, following sharp losses over the past three sessions.
Soybean oil futures are also modestly weaker this morning, aiming to break a five-day losing streak. The recent cease-fire agreement between Israel and Iran has weighed heavily on crude oil, which is now $13 per barrel below Monday’s high—dragging soybean oil prices lower in tandem.
Monday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean conditions unchanged, with 66% of the crop rated good to excellent. Planting is now 96% complete, with 90% emerged—up from 84% the previous week. Additionally, 8% of the crop has reached the blooming stage.
Wheat futures are mixed this morning, with spring wheat holding near unchanged while the winter wheats are slightly lower.
For now, traders appear largely unconcerned with generally poorer winter wheat conditions across most states compared to 2024, despite weekly declines in Monday’s Crop Progress report and a slower-than-normal harvest pace.
Globally, favorable conditions in France and steadily improving crop estimates for Russia in recent weeks continue to weigh on wheat futures.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower again this morning as reports come in that the cease fire agreement made last night between Israel and Iran seems to have faltered with both countries accusing the other of breaking the deal overnight. This has put pressure on the grain and energy complexes.
Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report was friendly as the crop ratings were lowered by 2 points to 70% good to excellent. 97% of the crop is emerged and 4% is silking.
The CFTC report showed funds as sellers of corn as of June 17. They sold 20,768 contracts which increased their net short position to 184,788 contracts.
Soybeans are trading lower to start the day under pressure from sharply lower soybean oil which is following crude oil. Crude has lost over 10 dollars a barrel in value from yesterday’s high as trade now assumes that Iran will not close the Strait of Hormuz.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress Report saw crop conditions for soybeans unchanged with the good to excellent rating still at 66%. 96% of the crop is planted, 90% is emerged, and 8% is blooming.
Yesterday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of soybeans. They bought 33,526 contacts which increased their net long position to 59,165 contracts. They bought 21,375 contracts of bean oil and sold 20,273 contracts of meal.
All three wheat classes are trading lower again this morning and have unfortunately taken the brunt of the recent sell-off in grains despite having a more compelling bullish story as crop ratings decline and funds are poised to cover a portion of their short position.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress saw winter wheat crop ratings down 3 points to 49% good to excellent while spring wheat ratings also fell by 3 points to 54%. 19% of winter wheat is harvested, 93% of spring wheat is emerged, and 17% is headed.
The CFTC report saw funds as buyers of wheat, they bought back 12,658 contracts of Chicago wheat which reduced their net short position to 81,353 contracts. They bought back 12,813 contracts of KC wheat leaving them short 62,151 contracts.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower to start the week following weekend strikes by the US into Iranian nuclear sites. Further retaliation could cause the Strait of Hormuz to be closed which would be bullish for all energy commodities including ethanol.
Friday’s export sales report saw corn sales above expectations at 1,059k tons. This compared to 762k last week and 605k tons a year ago. Primary destinations were to Japan, Mexico, and South Korea.
In Brazil, corn prices have moved lower as trade expects high supplies in the coming weeks from a large second crop corn which is now estimated at 101 mmt, up 12% from the last record.
Soybeans are trading slightly lower to start the day but remain near the top of their range. Soybean meal is trading lower, but bean oil is following crude higher in the fallout of the strikes on Iran.
Friday’s export sales report saw soybean sales above expectations at 615 mmt which compared to 120k tons last week and 641k a year ago at this time. Top buyers were Mexico, Germany, and unknown.
Chinese soybean imports from Brazil for the month of May increased by 37.5% year over year. They bought 12.11 mmt from Brazil which compared to 8.81 mmt last year, and they bought just 1.63m mmt from the US.
All three wheat classes are trading slightly lower to start the week but remain near their highest levels in months. July Chicago wheat has met some resistance at the 200-day moving average, but a close above that level could see a move to 6 dollars.
Friday’s export sales report saw wheat sales within trade expectations at 427k tons which compared to 389k last week and 579k a year ago. Top buyers were Taiwan, the Philippines, and Venezuela.
In Kansas there were reports last week that storms with winds of up to 100 mph caused significant damage to the wheat crop. In other wheat areas, conditions are too wet which could pose more problems.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher to start the day, but July futures remain at support near recent lows while new crop December is closer to the middle of its trading range near the 50-day moving average.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see corn sales in a range between 650k and 1,400k tons with an average guess of 963k. This would compare to 762k a week ago and 605k a year ago.
In Brazil, the second crop corn harvest is ongoing which is likely adding pressure to US prices. In the US, weather has been good but is expected to turn dry.
Soybeans are trading higher along with corn and are at the top of their recent trading range. Gains in soybean oil have set the stage for this rally as trade looks for increased biodiesel demand. Meal is lower today while bean oil is higher.
Chinese soybean imports from Brazil for the month of May increased by 37.5% year over year. They bought 12.11 mmt from Brazil which compared to 8.81 mmt last year, and they bought just 1.63m mmt from the US.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see soybean sales in a range between 150k and 500k tons with an average guess of 313k tons. This would compare to 120k last week and 582k a year ago.
All three wheat classes are lower this morning following extremely impressive gains on Wednesday that saw futures up more than 25 cents to close the day. Weather and fund short covering were the primary reasons for the move.
In Kansas there have been early reports that storms on Tuesday with winds of up to 100 mph caused significant damage to the wheat crop. In other wheat areas, conditions are too wet which could pose more problems.
Estimates for today’s export sales report see wheat sales in a range between 300k and 600k tons with an average guess of 425k tons. This would compare to 389k last week and 579k tons a year ago.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly higher this morning but still remains near support levels at $4.30 in the July contract. Improving wheat prices have likely kept corn from sliding lower as a large crop is expected.
Estimates for the weekly EIA report see ethanol production coming in lower than last week at 1.106m barrels per day while stockpiles are expected to be higher at 23.957m bbl.
In Brazil, the second crop corn harvest is ongoing which is likely adding pressure to US prices. In the US, weather has been good but is expected to turn dry.
Soybeans are trading lower this morning and are at the top end of their recent range following the bullish soybean oil news. Crude oil has begun to rally with war escalating between Israel and Iran which could lend further support to soybeans.
Soybean meal is slightly higher while soybean oil is lower, and the two have had an inverse relationship recently as more soybean crush will create excess meal. There was a flash sale announced yesterday of 200k tons of meal to unknown destinations.
China released their import figures from May which showed that soybean imports increased by 26.2% year over year to 13.92m tons. Chinese exports of rare earth fell by 31.3% in May.
Wheat is trading higher again to start the day as a slow start to US harvest coupled with crop ratings that are well below those of a year ago provide support. 10% of winter wheat has been harvested compared to 25% at this time last year.
The export duty on Russian wheat exports have fallen by 13.3% to 566 rubles per ton from 652.5 the previous week. The new rate will be in effect until June 24 and should be supportive to Russian exports.
In Ukraine, a dry weather pattern is now forecast which could threaten wheat production. So far, production estimates are unchanged at 20.1 mmt, but this number could decrease.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is slightly higher to start the day following yesterday’s sharp decline. July futures have found some support at the $4.30 level but have struggled to rally alongside soybeans and wheat recently.
The past 6 to 10 days have seen above normal rainfall which caused a reduction in drought areas in the Corn Belt, but forecasts are beginning to turn dry, especially in the West. A hot and dry July and August are still in the forecast.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw the corn crop’s good to excellent rating improving by one point from last week to 72%. The entire crop has been planted, and 94% is now emerged.
Soybeans are trading slightly lower after July futures rallied nearly to $10.80 yesterday thanks to extreme bullishness in soybean oil. Yesterday, soybean oil closed expanded limit up, so the whole soy complex will have expanded limits again today. So far, soybean meal and oil are slightly lower.
Yesterday’s NOPA crush showed May soybean crush at 192.83 million bushels which was below most trade estimates but was higher than the previous month and was the strongest May crush ever.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw soybean conditions decline by 2 points to 66% good to excellent. This was also 2 points below the average trade estimate. 93% of the crop is planted and 84% is emerged, slightly above the 5-year average of 83% at this time.
Wheat is trading higher this morning following a mixed bag in Crop Progress but one that still showed crop ratings well behind their average years of 76% good to excellent. Funds hold a very large net short position making the susceptible to short covering.
Yesterday’s export inspections report saw wheat inspections at 389k tons which compared to 324k last week and 412k a year ago. Top destinations were to Nigeria, the Philippines, and Thailand.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress saw winter wheat ratings fall by 2 points to 52% good to excellent while spring wheat improved by 4 points to 57% good to excellent. 10% of the winter wheat crop has been harvested.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower this morning taking back a portion of Friday’s gains that were caused by escalated global tensions. Weather has not been dry enough yet to give corn prices the boost it has needed.
The past 6 to 10 days have seen above normal rainfall which caused a reduction in drought areas in the Corn Belt, but forecasts are beginning to turn dry, especially in the West. A hot and dry July and August are still in the forecast.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as sellers of corn by 9,977 contracts which increased their net short position to 164,020 contracts. This position is getting dangerously short if conditions turn dry and could turn into short covering.
Soybeans are trading higher this morning on continued momentum from Friday after biodiesel quotas for 2026 and ’27 came in significantly higher than expected causing a limit up move in soybean oil. Soybean oil is sharply higher again today after gapping up while meal is lower.
May soybean crush is seen at 193.8 million bushels which would be 5.5% above May of last year and would be 1.9% higher than a month ago. Oil stocks are expected to be lower than a year ago.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds buying 17,038 contracts of soybeans which increased their net long position to 25,639 contracts. They sold 7,222 contracts of bean oil as of June 10 and bought 9,909 contracts of meal.
Wheat is trading lower to start the week after rebounding sharply on Friday posting gains of over 17 cents in the July contract. Rising tensions between Iran and Israel were a large reason, and the fighting will likely continue for now.
Later today, the USDA will release its Crop Progress report, and expectations are that crop conditions may fall slightly following an increase in drought conditions in the West.
Friday’s CFTC report saw funds as buyers of Chicago wheat as of June 10 by 6,561 contracts which left them short 94,011 contracts. They bought 3,064 contracts of KC wheat which decreased their net short position to 74,964 contracts.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Dalian corn futures moved lower, while the USDA pegged U.S. 2024/25 corn carryout at 1.365 billion bushels and 2025/26 at 1.750 billion, citing stronger 2024/25 exports.
Global 2025/26 corn ending stocks were trimmed to 275.2 mmt from 277.8 mmt in May; China’s 2024/25 corn imports were lowered by 1 mmt to 7 mmt, but 2025/26 was left unchanged at 10 mmt.
Weekly U.S. corn export sales totaled 791,000 mt, bringing total commitments to 65.9 mmt vs 52.3 mmt a year ago; the USDA’s projection is 67.31 mmt, up from 58.23 mmt last year.
Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil, and palm oil futures were all higher, with support from broader commodity strength and anticipation that next week the EPA could announce new biofuel policy.
The USDA estimated U.S. soybean carryout at 350 million bushels for 2024/25 and 295 million for 2025/26, though some see 2025/26 carryout closer to 500 million due to weaker export expectations; world 2025/26 ending stocks were raised to 125.3 mmt from 124.3 mmt in May.
Weekly U.S. soybean export sales were just 61,000 mt, with unknown sales down 260,000 mt; total commitments are at 48.7 mmt vs 43.7 mmt last year, with the USDA’s annual goal at 50.35 mmt.
The USDA held its U.S. wheat crop estimate steady at 1.921 billion bushels and projected 2024/25 carryout at 841 million bushels and 2025/26 at 898 million, with the year-over-year decline driven by higher export expectations.
Global 2025/26 wheat ending stocks were lowered to 262.7 mmt from 265.7 mmt in May, reflecting tighter global supply.
Weekly U.S. wheat export sales totaled 389,000 mmt; total commitments reached 5.9 mmt vs 4.8 mmt last year, with the USDA’s export projection at 22.45 mmt vs 22.3 mmt last year.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Dalian corn futures were slightly lower, while U.S. 2024/25 and 2025/26 corn carryout is estimated at 1.392 and 1.792 billion bushels, respectively, in today’s WASDE.
Vietnam opted to buy U.S. corn over South American supplies, but most global buyers, including Taiwan, continue sourcing from Brazil; Ukraine’s exports are tight, reaching 82% of USDA’s 22 mmt projection.
U.S. weekly corn export sales are estimated at 700-1200 mt vs 942 mt last week; ethanol production rose 9.5% year-over-year, with stocks up 2.2%.
Dalian soybean and soymeal futures traded higher, while soyoil and palm oil were lower.
U.S. soybean carryout is estimated at 351 million bushels for 2024/25 and 298 for 2025/26; world 2025/26 ending stocks are seen at 124.5 mmt vs 124.3 mmt in May.
China’s soybean imports are expected to hold at 108 mmt after a record May (13.6 mmt); India’s May veg oil imports rose from April but fell year-over-year; U.S. weekly soybean export sales are estimated at 100-500 mmt vs 194 mt last week.
The USDA is expected to raise Russia’s wheat crop estimate but lower its export outlook; Australia’s crop may also be revised higher, while the EU crop could be near 138 mmt.
Trade estimates put the U.S. wheat crop at 1.924 billion bushels (vs 1.921 in May), with 2024/25 carryout at 842 and 2025/26 at 924 million.
Wet weather has returned to the U.S. Southern Plains ahead of harvest; weekly U.S. wheat export sales are estimated at 400-600 mt vs 444 mt last week.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Dalian corn futures ticked slightly higher, with U.S. markets continuing a short-covering rally ahead of Thursday’s USDA report. In contrast, MATIF August corn futures fell to new contract lows.
Trade estimates U.S. 2024/25 corn carryout at 1.392 billion bushels and 2025/26 at 1.792 billion bushels, though one group sees 2025/26 carryout rising to 2.03 billion on weaker export expectations. World 2025/26 corn ending stocks are projected at 278.8 mmt, slightly above May’s 277.8.
Vietnam signed a deal to import U.S. corn over South American alternatives. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s corn exports have reached 18 mmt, 82% of USDA’s target, amid tightening supplies. Taiwan sourced corn from Brazil, which remains the primary supplier for most global buyers. EU corn imports are up 7% year-over-year, while exports are down 41%.
Dalian soybean and soymeal futures moved higher, while soyoil and palm oil futures declined. In Europe, MATIF rapeseed futures tested key resistance levels before retreating.
Ongoing uncertainty around the EPA’s biofuel policy clouds the outlook. Trade estimates peg the 2024/25 U.S. soybean carryout at 351 million bushels and 2025/26 at 298 million, though one group sees weaker exports pushing 2025/26 carryout closer to 500 million.
World 2025/26 soybean ending stocks are estimated at 124.5 mmt, slightly above May’s 124.3. One firm expects U.S. 2024/25 soyoil carryout to fall to 1090 million lbs (vs. USDA’s 1451) due to lower production and stronger exports.
Showers are expected in China and southern Russia, but Saskatchewan may miss beneficial rainfall. In the U.S. Southern Plains, drier weather should aid the wheat harvest.
Russian wheat crop estimates have been raised to 84 mmt, and the EU’s crop could reach 138 mmt. However, EU wheat exports are down 32% year-over-year, while Australian wheat futures are trading near a 7-month low.
The U.S. wheat crop is estimated at 1.924 billion bushels, nearly unchanged from May. U.S. 2024/25 wheat carryout is projected at 842 million bushels, rising to 924 million in 2025/26.
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