Corn traded lower at midday, with pressure from the upcoming weather forecast outweighing support from recently announced trade deals.
Corn traders remain uncertain about the potential impact of the overnight trade deal with Japan, given that Japan is already a major buyer of U.S. corn, leaving questions about how much additional demand the agreement will generate.
The South Korean trade team is scheduled to visit the U.S. this coming Friday. Recently, South Korea has been purchasing corn from South America, but a newly signed deal could potentially shift their corn purchases back to the U.S.
Corn conditions continue to indicate potential for record yields, with forecasts suggesting yields in the 180s bpa remain possible, depending on August and September weather.
Ethanol production for the week ending July 18th was slightly decreased to 1,078 thousand barrels per day from 1,087 the previous week and also marking a 1.6% decline YOY. The daily corn usage reached 15.37 million bushels in this production process.
Soybeans are trading higher at midday as traders continue to digest the details of several trade deals announced late yesterday and overnight, which have fueled hopes for rising demand. Soybeans and soybean oil are posting gains while soybean meal trades mixed.
The deal struck yesterday between the White House and the Philippines is expected to boost U.S. soy exports to the country, offering some support to today’s market.
The soybean crop is expected to benefit from favorable rainfall across much of the Midwest over the next two weeks, except in the Great Lakes states, where below-normal precipitation is forecast.
Soybeans continue to face some pressure as crop condition ratings remain strong, with 68% rated good to excellent—the highest since 2020. Last week’s 2% decline was largely due to Kansas and North Dakota, though both regions have since received beneficial rainfall.
Wheat prices turned lower by midday Wednesday, showing little to no reaction to the newly announced trade deals.
The Wheat Quality Council completed the first day of their spring wheat tour, surveying 171 fields from Fargo to Bismarck, North Dakota, with an average yield of 49.8 bpa.
“Russia’s Agriculture Minister revised the country’s wheat production forecast to 88–90 million metric tons, down slightly from the earlier estimate of 90 million. Wheat export projections were also lowered to 43–44 million tons, compared to the previous forecast of 45 million.
According to analyst Argus, the French wheat crop is projected at 33.4 mmt, a 30% increase compared to last year.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn futures remain lower at midday, pressured by friendly weather forecasts and crop conditions sitting at 9-year highs.
Monday’s Crop Progress report showed corn ratings unchanged from last week at 74% good-to-excellent, and up from 67% last year.
AgRural has increased their corn production estimate in Brazil to 136.3 mmt, up from their previous estimate in June of 130.6 mmt. Harvest advanced to 55% complete, up from 40% last week.
Soybeans continue to see some weakness at midday as recent rainfall is keeping pressure on prices. January soybeans are trading just above the 100 and 200-day moving averages.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean conditions dropping 2 points from the week prior to 68% good-to-excellent. This is on par with ratings during the same week last year.
Limited fresh news on the soy side and more precipitation slated for this week across much of the Midwest may keep downside pressure on prices.
Wheat prices have reversed higher at midday, supported by a drop in crop ratings and increasing concerns over a damaged crop.
Spring wheat ratings dropped 2 points from last week to 52% good-to-excellent and still remains well below last years rating of 77%. Winter wheat harvest jumped 10% to 73% complete this week but remains slightly behind last year’s pace of 75% done at this time.
IKAR has lowered Russia’s wheat output slightly to 83.5 mmt citing poor yields in the southern region as a reason for the cut.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn prices remain under pressure at midday, as market participants await the USDA’s Crop Progress report, set to be released later this afternoon.
Weather remains a key focus for traders, with varying precipitation patterns across parts of the Corn Belt and the 15-day forecast indicating above-average temperatures for much of the region.
The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics in Brazil reports that the corn harvest in the state has surpassed 77%, advancing by 20 percentage points over the past week.
Corn export inspections fell below expectations last week, dropping to their lowest level since January.
Soybean markets show mixed trading at midday, influenced by a 15-day forecast predicting variable precipitation and above-average temperatures across key soybean-growing regions.
Soybeans and soybean meal are trading mixed, while soybean oil is posting losses.
Traders remain concerned about demand for new-crop soybean sales as the market enters a typically active period for booking export sales—particularly if China continues to stay on the sidelines.
China’s June soybean imports from Brazil were up 9% year-on-year.
President Trump continues to push for an in-person meeting with China’s leader this fall, while also facing ongoing trade tensions with Brazil, the EU, and several other countries ahead of the August 1st deadline.
The wheat complex turned lower at midday as traders await this afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report, which will provide updates on both winter and spring wheat conditions.
The market received a modest boost this morning following reports that Bangladesh has signed an agreement to purchase 700,000 tons of U.S. wheat annually, as trade negotiations with the country continue. Bangladesh has traditionally sourced much of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine.
Last week’s market rally was partly driven by a slow start to the Russian wheat harvest, with early yield reports coming in lower than those observed in 2024.
Scattered weekend rains fell across parts of Montana, North Dakota, and Minnesota, with additional precipitation expected this week—crucial as above-average heat is forecasted to follow.
Weekly wheat inspections surged well above expectations, reaching the highest level since 2008.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn markets trade mixed at midday, recovering from yesterday’s losses and gaining some momentum alongside strength in the soybean and wheat markets.
Weather remains generally favorable across key U.S. corn-producing regions, with rain in the forecast and warmer temperatures supporting crop development. While some areas continue to face drought, coverage has declined to just 9% of the U.S. corn crop.
“French corn conditions declined by 3% last week, while Argentina’s corn harvest is progressing into its final stages, now 79% complete.
U.S. corn is rated 74% good to excellent, and the crop remains on track to potentially achieve record yields this harvest.
Soybeans continue to trade higher at midday, supported by forecasts calling for hotter temperatures and limited rainfall in the week ahead. The entire soy complex is posting gains at midday.
The U.S. Secretary of Commerce suggested this week that trade talks with China are gradually progressing, fueling optimism for an in-person meeting between President Trump and President Xi later this summer or in early fall. This renewed trade optimism is adding support to the soybean rally.
The percentage of U.S. soybean acres under drought conditions fell by 2 points to 7%, though that’s still above the 5% reported at this time last year. However, with the hot and dry weather forecast, that number is expected to rise.
Wheat is trading mixed at midday, with momentum shifting amid global tensions and evolving weather conditions.
The percentage of U.S. winter wheat under drought conditions has risen by 5 points to 30%, compared to 24% at this time last year. Drought coverage for hard red spring wheat also increased, up 1 point to 36%.
Expanding harvests in the U.S., the Black Sea region, and the EU have weighed on global wheat prices, as new crop supplies continue to flow into the market. In France, the wheat harvest is now 71% complete.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn prices are weaker at midday, as US weather remains favorable for US crops in the short term. December corn futures were looking to add a fourth straight day of higher trading before today’s weakness, a feat which has not been done since the week of June 2nd.
Weekly corn export sales totaled 26 mb, which was below trade expectations. Year-to-date commitments now sit at 2.735 billion bushels, up 27% from last year.
President Trump announced that Coca-Cola has agreed to use cane sugar instead of corn syrup moving forward. This has raised some concerns about corn usage moving forward.
LSEG has raised Brazil’s corn production forecast to 131.2 mmt, up 1% from the group’s previous estimate.
Soybeans are finding support at midday on drier weather forecasts for the month of August. The high so far on November soybeans is right at the 50-day moving average of $10.2725.
Weekly export sales for soybeans were on par with trade guesses at 30 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 1.861 billion bushels, which is 12% ahead of last year.
The Rosario Grain Exchange has raised their soybean production estimate for Argentina by 1 mmt to 49.5 mmt.
All three wheat classes are trading lower at midday on pressure from harvest and improvements to production estimates.
Weekly wheat export sales came in at 18 mb, which was in line with expectations. Year-to-date commitments sit at a 5-year high of 303 mb.
SovEcon bumped their Russian wheat estimate up to 83.6 mmt, 0.6 mmt higher from their previous forecast.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn continues to push higher at midday for the third consecutive day, gaining strength as traders shift their focus away from Midwest weather concerns toward the potential for new demand driven by upcoming trade deals.
U.S. weather remains bearish for the next week, with rain expected across the central Corn Belt. However, temperatures are forecast to rise above normal in most crop areas — except for the far northern Plains — later in the week.
LSEG has lowered its corn production estimate for Ukraine by 1.8%, bringing the forecast down to 27.2 million tons.
Dr. Cordonnier raised his U.S. corn yield estimate by 2 BPA to 182, surpassing the USDA’s current estimate of 181. He also increased his forecast for Brazil’s corn crop by 2 mt to 134 million, compared to the USDA’s projection of 132 million. Cordonnier noted that Mato Grosso is experiencing record yields.
Ethanol production rose slightly to 320 million gallons, up from 319 million the previous week, though still down 2% year over year. The production process used approximately 108.5 million bushels of corn.
Soybeans are reversing yesterday’s losses in midday trade, with the soy complex continuing to post gains. The market is finding support following a White House announcement that a trade agreement has been finalized with Indonesia, which includes a significant commitment to U.S. agricultural purchases — including soy products. At midday, soybeans and soybean meal are trading higher, while soybean oil is under slight pressure.
USDA confirms the sale of 120,000 tons of U.S. soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations in 2025/26.
Dr Cordonnier raised his U.S. soybean yield estimate to match USDA at 52.5 bpa.
The weather pattern across the core of the soybean belt is expected to remain active over the next week, with much-needed rainfall forecast for the dry areas of Indiana and Illinois.
Wheat markets are trading mixed at midday, continuing to struggle despite strength in the corn market.
Global wheat harvests are ongoing, adding to market supply and making it difficult for prices to extend gains during this period.
As of July 7th, 36% of France’s soft wheat crop has been harvested, with conditions steady at 68% rated good to excellent, according to FranceAgriMer.
A strong recovery in wheat production is expected across the EU in 2025, which will contribute to an increase in global supply.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn futures are bouncing at midday, supported by private weather groups calling for drier forecasts through August.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed corn ratings unchanged from last week at 74% good-to-excellent, which is up from 68% during the same period last year.
Brazil’s corn harvest is advancing but sits at just 40% complete, well below last year’s pace of 70% at this time.
Soybeans are slightly higher at midday, supported by higher corn and wheat markets and expectations of higher NOPA crush numbers for June.
Monday’s Crop Progress report showed a 4% jump in ratings to 70% good-to-excellent, up from 68% during the same week last year.
June’s NOPA crush numbers will be released today and are expected to show an increase to 185.19 mb, which if realized would be up 5.5% from a year ago. Soybean oil stocks are seen at 1.37 billion pounds, which would be well below last year’s number of 1.622 billion pounds.
All three wheat classes are trading higher at midday, supported by technical support levels after testing multi-month lows in Chicago wheat.
Spring wheat ratings improved to 54% good-to-excellent, up from 50% the week prior but down from 77% good-to-excellent last year. Winter wheat harvest advanced 10% from last week to 63% complete.
Russia’s IKAR has lowered their wheat production forecast for the country to 84 mmt, down from the groups previous estimate of 84.5 mmt.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn futures are higher at midday after a lower open on Sunday night.
Over the weekend, the Trump administration announced a 30% tariff on both the European Union and Mexico, set to begin August 1. The news is especially significant for corn, as Mexico is the top buyer of U.S. corn. The move adds another layer of uncertainty to an already pressured market facing strong crop prospects and low prices.
USDA raised Brazil’s 2025 corn production estimate by 2 MMT to 132 MMT, aligning with Conab’s update the day prior. This bumped up global corn stocks (excluding China), though overall inventories remain near 12-year lows, keeping the global supply picture historically tight.
Soybean futures are lower to unchanged at midday.
Friday’s USDA report showed a 5% increase in 2025-26 soybean crush projections, driven by new biofuel policies. The 45Z tax credit and EPA’s RFS proposal favor U.S. feedstocks, boosting expected soybean oil use for biofuel by 3.25 billion pounds.
Weather forecasts through late July remain favorable, with continued chances for widespread moisture across the Midwest supporting crop development.
Wheat futures are slightly lower to start the week as winter wheat harvest progresses on in the U.S.
USDA raised its forecast for durum and spring wheat production to 584 mb, which would be supported by the second-highest spring wheat yield on record. However, traders may view this estimate with skepticism given ongoing hot, dry conditions in the northwestern U.S. and poor crop ratings in key states like Montana.
In Argentina, recent rains improved wheat crop conditions; planting is 91% complete with 6.7 million hectares expected.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn futures are trading lower during midday trade as market participants remain cautious ahead of the USDA’s WASDE report, scheduled for release today at 11 a.m. Central Time.
According to a Dow Jones survey, the WASDE report is expected to lower the estimate for new-crop U.S. corn ending stocks from 1.750 bb to 1.733 bb, though some analysts anticipate a deeper cut.
The portion of U.S. corn acreage under drought conditions remains unchanged at 12%, up from 7% at this time last year.
Brazil’s corn harvest is just over 40% complete, while Argentina has reached 70.4% completion.
French corn conditions declined by 3% this week, while China’s Agriculture Ministry reported heavy rainfall across northern crop regions, warning of potential significant flooding over the next 10 days.
Soybean futures are trading lower at midday as traders await the USDA’s WASDE report, questioning whether it will offer any data substantial enough to shift the bearish sentiment that has weighed on the soy complex in recent weeks. Both soybeans and soybean meal are under pressure, while soybean oil is posting modest gains.
According to a Dow Jones survey, the WASDE report is expected to raise the estimate for new-crop U.S. soybean ending stocks from 295 mb to 304 mb.
USDA confirms the sale of 219,900 tons of U.S. soybeans for delivery to Mexico for the 25/26 year.
Tariff uncertainty continues to weigh on soybean markets, as President Trump stated that the European Union would receive a letter today regarding potential tariff measures.
Some U.S. soybean-growing areas are expected to receive relief next week, with precipitation forecasted across most of Iowa and parts of northern Illinois.
Wheat futures are trading lower during Friday’s midday session as traders remain cautious ahead of the USDA data release later this morning. The market is bracing for slightly lower production estimates and modest declines in both old- and new-crop ending stocks.
U.S. winter wheat drought conditions worsened, with 25% of the crop now under drought—up 1% from last week and significantly higher than 20% at this time last year. HRS wheat drought also increased by 6% to 35%.
Ukraine’s wheat harvest has started slowly, with just 1.2 million tons harvested so far—down 78% compared to this time last year. In Argentina, the wheat crop is 91% planted, while France’s harvest progress has accelerated significantly, reaching 36% complete compared to 15% at the same point last year.
Dry conditions in Western Australia are expected to reduce the regional wheat crop by 24% compared to last year. Meanwhile, LSEG has lowered China’s wheat production forecast by 1.2%, despite official Chinese government estimates remaining unchanged.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn prices are trading slightly higher at midday, supported by firmer wheat prices ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE report. December corn continues to trade near the contract low of $4.1175.
Weekly corn export sales came in above analyst expectations at 85 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 2.731 billion bushels, which is up 28% from a year ago.
Conab released their production estimates for Brazil this morning. The group estimates Brazil’s corn crop at 132 mmt, up from their previous estimate of 128.25 mmt.
Soybeans remain slightly higher at midday after backing off from earlier highs as weather conditions continue to lean bearish for prices.
Weekly export sales for soybeans totaled 28 mb, which was in line with trade expectations. Year-to-date commitments now sit at 1.853 billion bushels, up 12% from last year.
President Trump announced 20% tariffs for the Philippines starting on August 1st. This has led to some concerns with export business has the Philippines were the top buyer of U.S. product last season.
Conab slightly lowered Brazil’s soybean production forecast from 169.6 mmt to 169.5 mmt.
All three wheat classes are trending higher at midday on concerns that the USDA could show declining production estimates in tomorrow’s WASDE report.
Weekly wheat export sales were above expectations at 21 mb. Year-to-date commitments are currently at a 5-year high of 285 mb and up 9% from last year.
Conab has lowered their wheat production forecast in Brazil to 7.8 mmt, down from the groups previous estimate of 8.2 mmt.
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