Corn remains lower at midday as yield estimates continue to pressure the market, with projections coming in well above the USDA’s current figure. Favorable weather conditions are further supporting expectations for increased yields.
S&P Global was the latest to release its yield estimate yesterday, projecting 186 bpa. StoneX came in even higher at 188.1, while other private estimates range between 185 and 187 — all well above the USDA’s current projection of 181.
June Census trade data showed corn exports totaling 266 million bushels, up 26% year over year. Top export destinations included Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Colombia, and Taiwan.
Weekly ethanol production declined to 318 million gallons, down from 322 million the previous week, though still 1% higher year over year. The production used 108 million bushels of corn, averaging 15.4 million bushels per day—below the 16.1 million needed to stay on pace with the USDA’s annual forecast of 5.467 billion bushels.
Soybeans remain under pressure at midday amid ongoing trade concerns, with overall market sentiment staying mixed. Without supportive, bullish news on the trade front, any rallies in soybeans are expected to remain limited. Currently, soybean oil is posting gains, while soybeans and soybean meal are experiencing losses.
Trade with China remains at the forefront of market attention as the typical buying window for U.S. soybeans approaches. Concerns are growing over the outlook for a potential trade deal, especially after China purchased another cargo of soybean meal from Argentina yesterday.
Chinese crushers sold over 2 million metric tons of soybean meal to local feed mills yesterday—the largest single-day sales volume of the year—following total sales of just 850,000 tons for all of last week.
Census data shows U.S. soybean exports for June reached 55 million bushels, up 6.6% year over year. Top export destinations included Mexico, Egypt, Germany, and Japan.
Trade negotiations with Brazil have stalled, and the U.S. is preparing to impose punitive tariffs on Brazilian goods. Meanwhile, Brazil’s president appears emboldened to push back against President Trump, as China has increased its purchases from Brazil.
Wheat trade remains mixed and continues to struggle for footing, slipping further into new contract lows, alongside rising open interest.
Census data shows U.S. wheat exports for June totaled 63 million bushels, up 13% year over year. Top destinations included the Philippines, Mexico, Nigeria, and Japan.
LSEG reports that improved satellite imagery indicates Russian wheat production could reach 84 million tons, a 1% increase from their previous estimate.
Weather conditions are enabling harvest progress in the Black Sea region. However, in the U.S., hard red spring (HRS) wheat harvest in North Dakota is expected to face some delays this week.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn futures are weaker at midday as increasing yield estimates and favorable weather across the Corn Belt continue to add to the bearish projection in prices.
Monday’s Crop Progress report showed corn ratings unchanged from last week at 73% good-to-excellent but remain 6 points better than last year.
AgRural pegs Brazil’s winter corn harvest at 81% complete, up from 68% done last week but down from 95% complete the same week last year.
According to a survey conducted by StoneX, the group sees corn yield at 188.1 bpa, which is well above the USDA’s 181 bpa estimate.
Soybeans now lean lower at midday as prices get pressured from weakness in the rest of the grain market.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report saw soybean ratings falling 1 point from last week to 69% good-to-excellent, but is still up 1 point from the same week last year.
Celeres has raised their new crop soybean production estimate for Brazil to 177.2 mmt. If realized, this would be up 4.4 mmt from the current season.
Minneapolis wheat futures are the strong leg of the wheat complex at midday while KC and Chicago wheat prices are lower. Global wheat harvest is keeping sellers active, pressuring prices.
Spring wheat ratings slipped 1 point from the week prior to 48% good-to-excellent and remain well below last year’s rating of 74% good-to-excellent through the same week. Harvest sits at just 5% compared to 9% through the same week last year.
The US dollar is falling at midday after hitting a multi-month high late last week, which could help to keep some level of support under the market.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn futures are trading near steady Monday morning, still hovering close to recent lows.
Several private analysts are projecting the 2025 U.S. corn crop above 16 billion bushels, with national yields at or above 185 bu/acre. The record national average yield remains 179.3 bu/acre set in 2024.
U.S. corn export prices out of the Gulf are roughly $10/mt cheaper than Brazilian offers for August and September shipments.
After a tough week, soybean futures are starting the first full week of August with a modest rebound.
Soybean oil futures have been under pressure lately following last week’s OPEC+ decision to raise oil production again, weighing on energy-linked commodities.
Friday’s Census Crush report showed a June soybean grind of 197 million bushels—slightly above expectations but down from May’s 204 million. End-of-June soybean oil stocks came in at 1.893 billion pounds, well above the trade estimate of 1.67 billion.
Wheat futures are trading near unchanged to start the week.
SovEcon lowered the Russian wheat production estimate by 300,000 mt to 83.3 mmt and cut Ukraine’s production by 2.8 mmt to 19.8 mmt, citing disappointing yields in southern growing regions.
Trade negotiations with countries like India and Brazil are still ongoing behind the scenes, but the broader tariff landscape remains a bearish overhang for grain markets.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn traded lower at midday, despite multiple flash sales reported yesterday and additional sales today, signaling improving demand for U.S. corn.
USDA confirms the sale of 125,000 ton and 227,160 ton of U.S. Corn for export to unknown destinations for the 25/26 year.
Argentina’s corn harvest is 88% complete, and its recently reduced export tax is now in effect.
The percentage of U.S. corn under drought has declined by 2% with recent weather improvements, now at 7% compared to 5% at this time last year.
Soybeans moved higher at midday despite ongoing pressure from demand concerns, weather, and tariff uncertainty. Both soybeans and soybean meal posted gains, while soybean oil continued to trade lower.
President Trump announced new tariff rates of 25% on India and 35% on Canada as negotiations with both countries stall. He has yet to confirm whether the tariff truce with China will be extended.
China purchased a third cargo of Argentine soybean meal yesterday, totaling 30,000 metric tons for September/October shipment.
Wheat traded lower at midday on concerns over sluggish global demand, with export pace from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU remaining seasonally slow.
HRS wheat under drought dropped 5% to 38%, though it remains significantly higher than the 16% reported at this time last year.
In Argentina, planting is nearly complete at 98.3%, and recent rainfall has improved crop conditions by 10 points, with 61% now rated good to excellent—up from just 31% at this time last year.
SovEcon lowered its Ukrainian wheat production forecast by 2.8 million tons to 19.8 million, citing disappointing yields.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn prices are mixed at midday with September and December futures slightly higher. Lack of weather threats and increasing global yields continue to keep upside potential limited.
Weekly corn export sales came in at 88 mb, which were towards the upper end of trade estimates. Year-to-date commitments now total 2.774 billion bushels, which is up from 2.173 billion bushels last year.
Datagro has raised their corn production forecast in Brazil to 140.9 mmt. This is well above the USDA’s estimate of 132 mmt.
Soybeans remain pressured at midday as bearish weather continues to put a negative tone on prices with larger yields looming.
Weekly soybean export sales totaled 29 mb, which were on the high end of trade expectations. Year-to-date commitments now total 1.878 billion bushels, up from 1.668 billion bushels through the same week last year.
Datagro raised their soybean production estimate in Brazil to 182.9 mmt, which if realized would be 9.4 mmt more than the previous growing season.
The wheat market is mostly lower at midday, pressured by an increasing US dollar and improved global production estimates.
Weekly wheat export sales were on par with trade expectations at 23 mb. Year-to-date commitments sit at 351 mb, which is up from 305 mb last year.
Sovecon raised their Russian wheat output estimate to 83.6 mmt, up from the groups previous estimate of 82.9 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn markets are trading higher heading into midday, with U.S. weather remaining the primary bearish influence. With little fresh news to support a rally, the market continues to react mainly to weather developments.
The latest round of trade talks with China yielded no major breakthroughs, while key agreements with Canada, Mexico, South Korea, and India remain unsigned.
Ukraine’s agricultural union is projecting a 2-million-ton decline in corn production this harvest, citing poor weather conditions and locust infestations as key factors.
Ethanol production rose to 322 million gallons last week, up from 317 million the week prior, though still down 1% year over year. The industry used 109 million bushels of corn — an average of 15.6 million bushels per day — exceeding the 15.23 million daily pace needed to meet the USDA’s annual forecast of 5.5 billion bushels.
Soybeans turned lower at midday as U.S.-China trade talks concluded without tangible progress. The entire soy complex is trading lower in response.
President Trump is expected to make further calls regarding the tariff truce, despite Chinese officials stating that an extension had already been agreed upon. Traders remain concerned that prolonged negotiations could shorten — or even eliminate — China’s typical fall buying window for U.S. soybeans.
India purchased 150,000 tons of soybean oil from China after China discounted the sale due to an oversupply of both soybean oil and meal.
Rain is expected to move across eastern Nebraska into Iowa today, followed by a cold front. However, heat is forecast to rebuild during the second week of the outlook. These weather shifts may attract renewed market attention.
Wheat futures turned mixed at midday, remaining under pressure from a weak technical outlook and ongoing demand concerns.
Recent trade agreements have largely overlooked the U.S. wheat market, and high U.S. ending stocks will be challenging to reduce without an increase in demand.
Overnight, Bangladesh initiated a purchase of 220,000 tons of U.S. wheat as a goodwill gesture linked to ongoing trade negotiations.
Since July 1, Ukraine’s wheat exports have declined 66% year over year. Meanwhile, Cargill projects Australia’s wheat crop could reach 33 million tons, surpassing the government’s estimate of 30.6 million tons.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn prices struggle at midday, pressured by beneficial rainfall over night in South Dakota, Minnesota, and Iowa. December corn futures could look to retest the contract low of $4.0750 with limited upside potential for the foreseeable future.
Monday’s Crop Progress report showed corn ratings falling 1 point from last week to 73% good-to-excellent. This compares to 68% good-to-excellent the same week last year.
AgRural estimates that Brazil’s corn harvest is now at 68% complete, which is well below last year’s pace of 91% done at this time.
Soybeans remain lower at midday, pressured by crop ratings improving and lack of news regarding US/China trade talks .
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean ratings improve 2 points to 70% good-to excellent. This is above last year’s 67% good-to-excellent rating for the same week.
China is facing a surplus of soybean meal which has led to concerns over demand from the world’s largest buyer. China has not yet purchased any Q4 cargoes which is concerning given that is the heaviest marketing timeframe for the US.
All three wheat classes are weaker at midday on pressure from global harvest and a rising dollar which just hit a one month.
Spring wheat conditions fell 3 points to 49% good-to-excellent. Winter wheat harvest is pegged at 80% done which is just behind the 5-year average for the same week at 81% complete.
Conab estimates that 96.9% of Brazil’s wheat crop has been planted as of July 19 which is on pace with last year and the 5-year average.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn futures are under pressure to start the week as upcoming cooler temperatures across the Corn Belt are seen as beneficial for crop development.
On Monday morning, the USDA reported private export sales of 229,000 metric tons (MT) of corn to undisclosed destinations. This includes 35,000 MT for delivery in the 2024-25 marketing year and 194,000 MT for the 2025-26 marketing year. Additionally, 225,000 MT of corn was sold to Mexico for delivery in the 2025-26 marketing year.
The U.S. and EU reached a weekend trade deal reducing import tariffs to 15%, though specific details on agricultural commodity commitments remain unclear.
Soybean futures are under pressure again to start the week, as forecasts for cooler weather and adequate soil moisture are seen as favorable for crop development.
Argentina officially lowered export taxes over the weekend, increasing competition for U.S. soy and soy product exports. Soybean export taxes dropped from 33% to 26%, while taxes on soymeal and soyoil fell to 24.5% from 31%.
Traders are watching closely as U.S. and Chinese trade officials meet Monday and Tuesday in Sweden, with hopes that the talks will yield positive developments.
Wheat futures are slightly lower to start the week
The U.S. Dollar index is higher to start the week after it was announced over the weekend that the EU and U.S. had reached a trade deal.
While overall spring wheat ratings lag last year due to drought in the Pacific Northwest, production in North Dakota — and especially Minnesota — looks strong. The Wheat Quality Council tour pegged average yield about 4.5 bushels per acre above the 5-year average.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn prices continue to trend lower at midday, with weather remaining the key limiting factor hindering any significant upside momentum this week.
The percentage of U.S. corn under drought remains unchanged at 9%, up from 4% at this time last year. However, conditions are showing signs of improvement in Nebraska, which continues to experience the most severe drought impacts.
There are reports of ‘spotty pollination problems’ emerging in some areas, though the full extent of the issue likely won’t be known until harvest.
Argentina’s harvest is nearing the finish line at 84% complete.
Soybeans continue to post losses at midday, setting a new weekly low this morning after breaking below key support levels. Bearish weather sentiment is overshadowing optimism surrounding next week’s trade talks with China. The entire soy complex is trading lower at midday.
U.S. soybeans under drought remain minimal, ticking up 1% last week to 8%, compared to just 4% at this time last year. Dry conditions are gradually improving for soybeans in Nebraska as well.
Beneficial rainfall over the past 24 hours has been reported in the Texas Panhandle, central Kansas, and northern Missouri, while the rest of the Crop Belt remains dry. Hot temperatures are expected across these regions over the coming week, followed by a potential cooldown.
New crop soybean sales remain limited, with China notably absent from the market. However, traders remain hopeful that a trade agreement between the U.S. and China will be reached.
Wheat is trading lower at midday, pressured by favorable weather conditions and the USDA’s yield estimate holding steady at 59 bushels per acre — well above the five-year average of 44.5 bpa.
Winter wheat under drought conditions increased by 1% to 31%, compared to 24% at this time last year. Spring wheat drought coverage rose 7%, though expected rainfall this coming week should provide some relief.
Argentina’s wheat seeding is nearly complete, reaching 96%, with crop conditions improving by 1% this week to 50% rated good to excellent, up from 38% last year. Meanwhile, the French soft red winter (SRW) wheat harvest is now 86% complete — well ahead of last year’s 37% — with conditions remaining steady this week
EU SRW production was lowered to 127.3 mt from 128.2.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn prices continue to trade higher at midday, supported by news of Japan and US trade deal which is estimated to include $8 billion of US agricultural purchases by Japan.
Weekly corn export sales came in at 54 mb, which were in line with expectations. Year-to-date commitments total 2.760 billion bushels, up 27% from a year earlier.
The USDA reported that a previous sale of 135,000 mt of US corn to China was confirmed to be incorrect.
Weather remains friendly across the Corn Belt with additional precipitation chances in the 8-14 day forecast over the western belt.
Soybeans remain slightly higher at midday as prices are finding technical support along with optimism of trade deals boosting demand.
Weekly export sales for soybeans totaled 15 mb, which was on the low end of trade expectations. Year-to-date commitments sit at 1.867 billion bushels, which is up 13% from last year.
A Chinese buyer has reportedly signed a deal this week with Argentina to purchase 30,000 mt of soybean meal and animal feed. The buyer noted lower prices as the main reason for the agreement.
China is urging hog producers to manage their capacity levels to prevent falling prices. The Minister of Agriculture is also telling producers to find ways to reduce the amount of soybean meal in feed rations.
Wheat prices have pulled back at midday, pressured by harvest and the ongoing wheat tour which is expected to release final results later today.
Weekly wheat export sales were above expectations at 26 mb. Year-to-date commitments total 329 mb, up 12% from a year ago.
Argentina’s wheat production is seen increasing 1% to 20.2 mmt on improved soil moisture conditions.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
