Corn is trading sharply lower again today with the July contract breaking below 6 dollars to fill the gap made in July 2022. Another sale cancellation to China of 12.9 mb of corn is pressuring the market.
Corn export sales of 15.7 mb for 22/23 were up 28% from the previous week but down 49% from the prior 4-week average. Last week’s export shipments of 42.4 mb were below the 48.1 mb needed each week.
Ethanol production slowed last week with production falling by 5.6% to just 967,000 barrels per day.
Brazil’s safrinha corn has benefited from very good weather and a record crop is expected. Because of this, Brazilian corn will most likely be cheaper than US offers this summer.
Soybeans are lower for the 7th consecutive day while July soybean meal is lower for the 8th day. Soybean oil is down as well for the 6th day as palm oil continues its decline and is off 3.22% for its lowest close since October.
Soybean export sales of 11.4 mb for 22/23 were up from the previous week and up 38% from the prior 4-week average. Shipments of 16.7 mb were above the 13.2 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimates.
With Brazil’s harvest nearly complete, FOB basis has stabilized, and Paranagua basis has reportedly risen by 40 cents this week, which should be supportive to US prices.
Cargill’s head trader in Brazil has reported that Chinese demand for Brazilian soybeans has been lighter than anticipated, which has created a storage issue and has caused more producers to sell cash beans.
Wheat is lower for the 7th consecutive day as US weather improves, funds continue to add to their short position, and grains keep leaving from Black Sea ports.
Export sales of 5.7 mb for 22/23 of wheat were down 40% from the previous week and down 7% from the prior 4-week average. For the 23/24 marketing year, there was an increase of 7.4 mb.
Last week’s wheat export shipments were 11.2 mb and were below the 20.8 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate of 775 mb for 22/23.
There is doubt that the Black Sea Grain Initiative will be renewed by May 18, and Russia is insisting on changes to payments, logistics, and insurance on its own exports before agreeing to extend.
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Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly lower with the markets relatively quiet so far. The US Dollar has fallen sharply, which should be friendly to commodities, and with corn so oversold, funds may be easing on their selling.
There has been little in the way of fresh news, but tight old crop supplies in the western Corn Belt have kept basis firm while improving ethanol margins keep domestic demand strong for old crop.
The Black Sea grain deal has been a point of contention and it looks as though Russia will not renew a third extension of the deal unless sanctions on them are lifted, which would be supportive for corn and wheat.
Planting in the US is beginning to kick off in a bigger way as weather improves, and most combines should be rolling by the beginning of next month as rain chances are below normal in the Midwest.
Soybeans are trading slightly higher thanks to a bounce in soybean oil that comes despite another drop in crude oil prices, as well as a 1.76% decline in palm oil futures. Soybean meal is currently trading lower.
While Brazil’s harvest is now over 95% completed and those bushels are dominating exports, Argentina has stopped offering exports now that their production is estimated at only 22-25 mmt.
A longer-term bearish factor is that Brazil is planning to expand their planted acres for 23/24 and their production estimate for that marketing year is coming in at 159 mmt compared to the 153 mmt this year.
Canada is expected to release their seeding intentions with canola seeding up 500,000 acres to 21.8 million acres, which is up 0.9% from last year.
All three wheat products are lower today, but Minneapolis is leading the way down with KC wheat trailing behind as weather improves slightly.
Rains are expected to continue tonight in the hard red winter wheat areas and may even go into the weekend, while heavy storms will hit the Texas panhandle and go into western Oklahoma early on Wednesday.
As with corn, wheat traders are looking closely at the Black Sea grain deal which is at risk of not being renewed if Russia doesn’t have their sanctions lifted. This could be friendly for wheat if the deal is not renewed.
Today, Stats Canada released their seeding intentions which showed that all wheat will rise by over 1 million acres to 27 million acres which is up 6.2% from a year ago.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower for the fifth consecutive day, as planting continues in the US and South America sells their cash corn for significantly less than the US offers.
The US Dollar is moving higher today and that, along with lower crude and lower stocks, is putting pressure on grains.
Weekly exports were poor for corn last week and a net cancellation of 326,000 tons of US corn that were to be shipped to China was a bearish influence.
Corn plantings are estimated at 14%, above the 5-year average of 11% with planting ahead of schedule in the South.
Soybeans are trading sharply lower again today and the May contract is over 50 cents off yesterday’s high. Both soybean meal and oil are lower, but oil is posting the biggest losses with crude oil declining over 2 dollars a barrel.
Crop progress showed soybean plantings slightly ahead of schedule with 9% of the crop planted – with Illinois at 15%, Indiana at 8%, Ohio at 6%, and Nebraska at just 4%. One crop scout put the US soybean yield at 52 bpa.
Brazilian soybean export prices have dropped significantly but may be bottoming out as farmer selling slows down for new crop sales.
Last week there was talk that China purchased between 40 and 50 cargoes of soybeans from Brazil which would explain poor export sales in the US.
Wheat is lower with the rest of the grain complex and is being led lower by KC wheat again as weather forecasts call for well-needed rain in Kansas and Oklahoma.
Crop ratings showed the good-to-excellent rating for winter wheat fell by 1% to just 26% which is well below the 5-year average, but 18% of the wheat crop is heading vs 14% on average. For spring wheat, only 5% of the crop is planted vs 17% on average.
Russia is threatening to end Ukrainian grain shipments through the Black Sea which could be supportive for US prices.
APK Inform sees Ukraine’s grain harvest potentially falling by 13% to just 45.6 million metric tons in the 23/25 marketing year compared to 86 mmt before the Russian invasion.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower as better rain is forecast in the Southern Plains over the next 7 days and temperatures in the Corn Belt are expected to warm up.
US corn export demand is still very sluggish with export commitments down 33% from a year ago.
Conditions for Brazil’s second crop corn have been beneficial, and they are now offering corn at a sharp discount to US prices
Russia is threatening to end the Black Sea grain deal if the G7 decides to ban Russian exports.
Soybeans are trading higher with some help from soybean meal while soybean oil is lower despite higher crude oil.
The US has purchased Brazilian soybeans after their prices dropped significantly, but this should not come as a shock considering that this happens nearly every year.
The CFTC’s Commitment of Traders showed funds as net buyers the previous week, increasing their net long position to 135,000 contracts.
There is talk that Ukraine will plant more oilseeds, which is offering resistance to global vegetable oil markets.
Wheat futures are mixed to lower as weather forecasts vary with some rain in the Texas panhandle, but Kansas is still painfully dry and spring wheat areas received more snow.
Last week’s crop progress for hard red winter wheat was only rated 27% good-to-excellent and those numbers are unlikely to improve with the recent weather conditions.
Russia is threatening to end Ukrainian grain shipments through the Black Sea which could be supportive for US prices.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds holding a net short position of 105,000 contracts of Chicago wheat.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
