Corn is trading lower ahead of today’s WASDE report with Dec futures falling to a new low early this morning.
Expectations for today’s report are that the USDA will lower old crop corn export sales, but also that they will increase new crop corn ending stocks.
Brazil’s safrinha corn crop, which previously has looked very robust, is dealing with dryness in the South which may impact yields and production.
China has canceled a total of 32 mmt of US corn purchases in the past month as they look to South America for significantly cheaper prices.
Soybeans are trading lower along with soybean oil while soybean meal holds on to some slight gains. Crude oil remains slightly higher.
Brazil reportedly exported 943 thousand mt or soybeans to Argentina in January through April so that Argentina can meet their crushing expectations.
There were rumors yesterday that soybean meal sales for Argentina were switched to US origins, and that is potentially what has been supportive for meal.
CONAB has reported that 96% of the Brazilian soy harvest is now complete, and they are estimating production at 153.6 mmt. Friday’s WASDE report has guesses for Brazilian production at 155 mmt, up from the previous estimate.
Wheat is trading higher today ahead of the WASDE report which is expected to show lower winter wheat estimates than what the Dow Jones survey expected.
Most notably, the high-level meetings between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the UN ended yesterday with no resolution to the Black Sea grain deal in sight.
Winter wheat is rated 44% poor to very poor while the number 1 producer, Kansas, is rated a whopping 68% poor to very poor.
Friday’s WASDE report is expected to show old crop ending wheat stocks at 603 mb, up 5 mb from April due to smaller exports. The USDA will provide a production estimate as well which is projected to be 602 mb for all wheat.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower after poor export sales and continued bearish pressure from China’s sales cancellations earlier this week. China has now canceled over 31 mb of US corn purchases since April.
Export sales were not good and showed net sales of 257,300 mt for 22/23, which was down from the previous week but up 11% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 1,146,100 mt were down 33% from the previous week and 8% from the prior 4-week average.
The Brazilian crop is expected to be record large and likely between 123 and 125 mmt, but Brazil’s CONAB is now projecting 125.5 mmt.
Expectations for tomorrow’s WASDE are for a sharp jump in ending stocks for 23/24, with a carryout over 2 billion bushels. Old crop corn exports are expected to be lowered as well.
Soybeans began the day sharply lower with Nov making new lows, but the July and September contracts have rebounded and are now positive. Soybean meal is higher while soybean oil is lower. Crude oil has fallen over a dollar a barrel.
Export sales for soybeans were poor at 62,200 mt for 22/23, which was down 70% from the previous week and down 68% from the prior 4-week average. Exports were 411,000 mt and were down 27% from the previous week and 18% from the prior 4-week average.
The USDA confirmed a sale this morning of 132,000 tonnes of US soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations in 23/24.
Yesterday’s CPI data that showed slowing inflation was supportive as an easing of inflation will make the Fed less likely to increase interest rates. An easing of interest rate hikes typically moves the dollar lower, which makes US commodities cheaper relative to other countries.
The Rosario Exchange in Argentina is estimating their soy crop at just 21.5 mmt, down from 23 mmt at the previous estimate, and far below the USDA’s last estimate of 27 mmt. There have been some private analysts that are projecting production below 20 mmt.
Wheat is trading lower following very small export sales, falling Paris milling wheat futures, and cheap Russian wheat that continues to be sold on the market.
Export sales for wheat were 26,300 mt for 22/23, which was a marketing year low and was down 88% from the previous week and 86% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 204,000 mt were down 29% from the previous week and 24% from the prior 4-week average.
Heavy rain is falling in the Plains including some of the driest areas of the southwest. These rains will be too late for much of the HRW wheat crop but may improve yields in certain areas.
Today is the second day of high-level meetings between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the United Nations over the Black Sea grain deal, and a resolution may be announced this week.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
May and July corn are trading slightly higher with deferred contracts lower. CPI data was friendly today with inflation increasing 4.9%, less than the 5% estimate and the lowest annual pace since April 2021.
Forecasts are calling for a mixture of moisture and warmth throughout the next two weeks, which should hasten planting along and in good conditions.
Friday’s WASDE will most likely show a larger US crop and ending stocks number for 23/24. The average trade guess for the 23/24 carryout is 2094 mb.
The central Illinois corn basis is reported to be 70 over futures as end users deal with limited supply and unwillingness to sell, which explains the large premium May holds to later contracts.
Soybeans are trading slightly lower along with soybean oil, while soybean meal moves higher. The decline in crude oil today has not been supportive, as well as a decline in palm oil.
Chinese soybean imports for April were reportedly down 10% compared to a year ago at 266 mb. China’s May and June imports are expected to rise, however.
CONAB has reported that 96% of the Brazilian soy harvest is now complete, and they are estimating production at 153.6 mmt. Friday’s WASDE report has guesses for Brazilian production at 155 mmt, up from the previous estimate.
Trade guesses for Argentina’s soybean production in the WASDE report are at just 24 mmt, down 3 mmt from the previous estimate, but some estimates have that number even lower.
Wheat is mixed again today with Chicago down the most, slight losses for KC wheat, and slight gains for Minn wheat. Poor crop conditions in OK and KS have been supportive of KC wheat.
Traders are focused on the potential end of the Black Sea grain deal which expires on May 18. Inspections resumed yesterday for exports out of the Black Sea, but the countries have not come to an agreement yet.
Today begins high level meetings between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the United Nations over the Black Sea grain deal, and a resolution may be announced this week.
Friday’s WASDE report is expected to show old crop ending wheat stocks at 603 mb, up 5 mb from April due to smaller exports. The USDA will provide a production estimate as well which is projected to be 602 mb for all wheat.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading sharply lower following a Chinese cancellation of 10.7 mb of previously purchased US corn for 22/23. Brazilian corn remains cheaper than US offers enticing Chinese buyers.
Planting progress was faster than expected at 49% complete, above the average and above trade guesses. Illinois is 73% complete, Iowa at 70%, but Minnesota at only 38% and Indiana 36%.
The upcoming weather should allow a good seeding pace to continue with some intermittent rain, and Thursday and Friday widespread showers are expected.
Brazil’s forward sales of their second crop corn are behind the average pace at just 24.3%. The crop is currently estimated at 92.2 mmt and usually makes up 70 to 75% of Brazilian corn production.
Soybeans, along with soybean meal and oil, are all lower today under pressure from the faster than expected planting pace, lower crude oil, and a higher US dollar.
35% of the soybean crop is planted, which is 14 points higher than the 5-year average pace. Illinois is 66% complete, Iowa at 49%, but North Dakota and Minnesota lagging at 0% and 13% respectively.
Soybean oil is still under pressure, but palm oil has continued its rally for the fifth consecutive day. This should be supportive for soybean oil in the shorter term.
News that China’s April imports of soybeans is down 10% versus a year ago at just 7.26 mmt has been weighing on the market and makes it unclear if their economy is recovering as much as they have claimed.
Wheat is trading lower, led down by Chicago wheat with KC and Minn wheat only slightly lower. Pressure comes from a gap lower on Paris milling wheat futures.
Crop conditions continue to worsen for US winter wheat. The good to excellent rating improved by 1%, but the poor to very poor rating jumped 2% to 44%.
In Kansas, the wheat crop is rated just 11% good to excellent while the poor to very poor rating is at a whopping 68%, with Texas and Oklahoma not much better.
Russian state media said that high level meetings will take place on May 10-11 between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the UN, most likely to try to come to an agreement about the Black Sea corridor agreement.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is continuing higher today after yesterday morning’s announcement of a net sales cancellation as technicals became oversold, and non-commercials are likely doing some short covering ahead of the weekend.
Much of the strength in the corn market is owed to gains in wheat as the Black Sea grain deal ends on the May 18 with little hope that Russia will agree to renew.
China’s corn prices fell again today and, notably, China made its first ever purchase of corn from South Africa in an attempt to diversify their suppliers.
Warming temperatures this week should allow for more favorable planting conditions across much of the Midwest.
Soybeans, soybean meal and oil are trading higher today, fueled by gains in crude oil of nearly 3.00 a barrel in an apparent reversal where the bottom may have been put in yesterday.
The Fed signaled that they may be done with rate hikes for the rest of the year barring further inflationary news which is bullish for crude and most commodities.
In Argentina, the Buenos Aries Grain Exchange has hinted at a further cut their estimates of soy production which is already a record low 22.5 mmt due to the extreme drought. Final production could be under 20 mmt.
Old crop soybean supply may be limited this summer, which should lend some support to the market.
Wheat is leading the grain market higher with the main catalyst being the alleged Ukrainian drone strike on the Kremlin which Russia claims was meant as an assassination attempt on Vladimir Putin.
The increase in tensions right as the Black Sea grain deal is set to expire does not bode well for their exports, and the number of vessels coming in and out of the region is falling.
Non-commercials are currently net short wheat, and this may be the trigger for short covering in a big way between technicals and the political climate.
The Wheat Quality Council Tour begins on May 15 which will give a better idea to the damage of the Kansas crop, but the Oklahoma crop is already reportedly the smallest since 1955.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The USDA reported net cancellations of 12.4 mb of corn export sales for 22/23, and an increase of 4.8 mb for 23/24.
Yesterday the market had a knee jerk reaction to news that there was an attempted drone strike on the Kremlin. Grains did not follow through overnight, with corn, soybeans, and wheat all in the red to start the morning. At midday, however, wheat is turning positive.
The Fed did raise interest rates one quarter percent yesterday. But Chairman Powell’s comments about a pause in increasing rates could offer support to financial and commodity markets.
Warming temperatures this week should allow for more favorable planting conditions across much of the Midwest.
The USDA reported an increase of 10.6 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23, and an increase of 2.5 mb for 23/24.
Brazil soybeans are cheaper than US, especially to China. This could further reduce US export demand.
Old crop soybean supply may be limited this summer, which should lend some support to the market.
There is renewed concern about the banking crisis, with the sharp drop in Pac West share price. This could weigh on financial markets and spill over into commodities.
Based on July futures, the crush premium for soybeans is about $1.88 per bushel.
The USDA reported an increase of 7.8 mb of wheat export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 10.3 mb for 23/24.
Russia said they shot down the drone attack yesterday, but the increase in tensions suggest that there will not be an extension of the Black Sea export deal on May 18.
Speculators are said to hold short positions of SRW wheat that amount to over 130,000 contracts.
The Kansas winter wheat crop tour will be May 15-18. It is likely to show poor conditions.
A Turkish bank has agreed to process payments for Russian exports, but a signed agreement is needed.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Sharply lower crude oil yesterday (and so far today) may be the result of renewed economic concerns, with the Fed expected to raise interest rates this afternoon. This pressure could spill over into commodities.
The second crop (safrinha) corn in Brazil is in good condition. Southern and western Brazil have chances of showers over the next week or so.
Once the safrinha corn crop is harvested (around the July time frame) it could flood the market due to record crop size and lack of storage availability in Brazil.
A return to warmer and drier conditions for much of the Midwest should result in a pickup in planting pace.
Due to a lack of storage, Brazilian soybeans continue to flood the market. This is offering weakness to US futures and cash (and may lower US exports).
Higher temperatures (60s and 70s) in the Dakotas over the next couple weeks should help get the soybean crop planted there.
The drop in crude oil is weighing on soybean oil, which is in turn pressuring soybeans.
Daily stochastics show that both old and new crop soybeans are oversold – this could indicate that they are probing for a bottom.
Egypt bought wheat from Romania and Russia. The Russian wheat was purchased at $260 per ton. Russia had previously encouraged a $275 price floor on exports. (US SRW wheat is currently the world’s cheapest but is at a freight cost disadvantage).
Russia is engaging in talks to extend the Black Sea export deal. However, many feel that they will not extend the agreement again without reduced sanctions.
The Oklahoma wheat tour projected their crop at 54.3 mb. This would be the lowest crop since 1955.
The GFS weather model is projecting rains of up to 5-7 inches in parts of Nebraska and Kansas next week. The European model is drier, however.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Sharply lower crude oil yesterday (and so far today) may be the result of renewed economic concerns, with the Fed expected to raise interest rates this afternoon. This pressure could spill over into commodities.
The second crop (safrinha) corn in Brazil is in good condition. Southern and western Brazil have chances of showers over the next week or so.
Once the safrinha corn crop is harvested (around the July time frame) it could flood the market due to record crop size and lack of storage availability in Brazil.
A return to warmer and drier conditions for much of the Midwest should result in a pickup in planting pace.
Due to a lack of storage, Brazilian soybeans continue to flood the market. This is offering weakness to US futures and cash (and may lower US exports).
Higher temperatures (60s and 70s) in the Dakotas over the next couple weeks should help get the soybean crop planted there.
The drop in crude oil is weighing on soybean oil, which is in turn pressuring soybeans.
Daily stochastics show that both old and new crop soybeans are oversold – this could indicate that they are probing for a bottom.
Egypt bought wheat from Romania and Russia. The Russian wheat was purchased at $260 per ton. Russia had previously encouraged a $275 price floor on exports. (US SRW wheat is currently the world’s cheapest but is at a freight cost disadvantage).
Russia is engaging in talks to extend the Black Sea export deal. However, many feel that they will not extend the agreement again without reduced sanctions.
The Oklahoma wheat tour projected their crop at 54.3 mb. This would be the lowest crop since 1955.
The GFS weather model is projecting rains of up to 5-7 inches in parts of Nebraska and Kansas next week. The European model is drier, however.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The USDA said 26% of the corn crop is planted (vs 14% last week and 26% average).
Central Brazil is drying out and looks to remain mostly dry through the end of the month. However, their soil moisture may be enough to get through the dry pattern.
Barge traffic on the upper Mississippi River has been halted because of high water levels.
China is on May Day holiday until Thursday. As of Friday’s close, July corn on their Dalian exchange hit a contract low.
The USDA said 19% of the soybean crop is planted (vs 9% last week and 11% average).
NASS said soybean oil and soybean meal stocks (at the end of March) are down 7% from last year.
On the Fats & Oils report, census crush for April was pegged at 198 mb.
There still have not been any soybean or soybean meal deliveries against the May contract. This is an indicator of tight supplies.
The USDA said 28% of the winter wheat crop is rated good to excellent (vs 26% last week and 27% last year).
The USDA said 12% of the spring wheat crop is planted (vs 5% last week and 22% average).
Despite some rains last week in the southern plains, Kansas winter wheat poor to very poor condition increased 2% from last week to 64%.
The US Dollar Index is beginning to trend higher, and the Fed is anticipated to raise interest rates another 25 basis points at this week’s FOMC meeting.
GASC in Egypt is said to be tendering for wheat. With the recent decline in price, it is possible that they purchase from the US but freight cost could be the deciding factor.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The Fed is expected to again raise interest rates at this week’s FOMC meeting. But the second largest bank failure in US history (First Republic Bank) could cause them to think twice.
Funds are now estimated to be net short 40,000 corn contracts. They are said to have sold 146,000 contracts in total last week in the grain room.
This week should be mostly cool and dry across the Midwest, but widespread rains are forecast to return this weekend.
The USDA may need to lower their US corn export estimate. Commitments are currently still down 33% from last year.
The E15 waiver may be passed to allow for sales of ethanol blended gasoline during the summer months.
China’s PMI data was lower in April than in March – this could indicate a shrinking economy.
Funds are said to have substantially reduced their long positions in soybeans and soybean meal.
The third iteration of the soy / peso exchange rate program in Argentina is said to have resulted in 2 mmt of soybean sold.
So far there have been zero deliveries (for the May contract) of soybeans or soybean meal. However, there have been some soybean oil deliveries.
On this afternoon’s Crop Progress report, winter wheat is expected to show better ratings after the rains last week in the southern Plains.
The EU made a deal with countries in eastern Europe that will allow Ukraine’s exports to continue to pass west through that region, but imports would be banned in 5 countries.
North Dakota could see high temperatures by the middle of the week, which may improve planting conditions for spring wheat.
The deadline for an extension of the Black Sea grain deal is May 18. At this time, it seems unlikely that Russia will renew.
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Corn is trading lower for the third consecutive day and the July contract has lost approximately 71 cents from last week’s high following the Chinese sales cancellations.
Total cancellations by China this week were 21 mb, and yesterday’s export sales were disappointing at just 15.7 mb with total sales commitments down 33% from a year ago.
There were no deliveries against the May contract, and open interest fell by 13,000 contracts yesterday as funds build a net short position.
In order for the Black Sea agreement to be renewed, Russia is asking for terms that will likely not be met, so the deal may expire which could be bullish for corn and wheat.
Soybeans have been trading either side of unchanged today but are currently slightly lower. There is support from higher soybean oil as crude oil rises, while soybean meal is lower.
There were 199 deliveries against May soybean oil but no deliveries against soybeans or soybean meal.
Malaysian palm oil futures fell by 2.95% on Friday and are down nearly 11% for the month of April due to poor exports and a large Indonesian supply.
The Argentinian soybean crop is just over 28% harvested with new production estimates between 20 and 23 mmt which compares to last week’s harvest of 43.5 mmt.
Wheat is trading mixed today with Chicago and KC wheat lower but Minneapolis wheat slightly higher. If the trend lower continues, July wheat would be on track for an eighth consecutively lower close.
On a friendlier note, soft red winter wheat US FOB prices are now cheaper than the offers from Russia after Russia established a price floor at $275 per ton.
There was a total of 854 contracts delivered against the May Chicago wheat contract yesterday but no deliveries for KC or Minn wheat.
Paris milling wheat futures hit a new low today and have fallen 6 out of the past 8 trading days as French soft wheat is now rated at 94% good-to-excellent which is the best rating since 2011.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
