Midday

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed
Monday, May 29, 2023, in observance of Memorial Day

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading higher today and is on track for a positive close on the week in both the July and Dec contracts.
• Prices have rallied 50 cents from their lows seven days ago as concerning dry weather forecasts are projected over the Corn Belt for the next 10 days.
• There is concern over the Chinese economy, with growth expectations being revised lower there according to Bloomberg, and demand for corn may lessen as they opt to feed wheat instead.
• Helping the markets are talks about a resolution to the debt ceiling that may be reached by Monday.

• Soybeans, soybean oil, and meal are all trading higher today due to the dry forecast. Lower soybean meal has been a big bearish influence.
• Palm oil is up for the third consecutive day as the potential El Nino pattern could lead to drought conditions in Malaysia and Indonesia this year.
• Argentina’s soy crop is reportedly 78% harvested and local exchanges are estimating production at just 21 mmt, 6 mmt lower than the most recent USDA estimate.
• Argentina typically exports 14% of their soy crop, but crush is expected to be down 5.4 mmt in the coming year due to the extreme drought conditions.

• All three wheat products are trading higher today with the poor HRW wheat crop, as well as weather concerns in Russia.
• Russia’s spring wheat areas are forecast to be hot and dry, and ship traffic in the Black Sea is restricted with Russia intentionally slowing things down.
• There has been confirmation that US mills have imported wheat supplies from both Poland and Germany into the southwest and Texas Gulf.
• Paris milling wheat is higher, and French wheat is rated 93% good to excellent despite reports of heat and dryness there. Russia continues to dominate the export market with their cheap offers.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed
Monday, May 29, 2023, in observance of Memorial Day

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn is drifting slightly lower after another week of poor export sales and concern over outside markets as the debt ceiling issue remains unresolved and the deadline fast approaching.
• Forecasts for the Midwest are calling for warm and dry conditions over the next two to three weeks, but some European models are calling for scattered showers, which may help cool temperatures down.
• Export sales for the week ending May 18 showed net sales cancellations of 3.0 mb, which was down 78% from the previous week. There was an increase of 2.1 mb for 23/24, and shipments were 59.2 mb, above the 41.1 mb needed each week.
• There is concern over the Chinese economy, with growth expectations being revised lower there according to Bloomberg, and demand for corn may lessen as they opt to feed wheat instead.

• Soybeans are lower after poor export sales and another drop in soybean meal that has taken July futures to their lowest levels since November 2022.
• As the dollar rises today, crude oil has fallen over two dollars a barrel and is trading just above 72 dollars a barrel. This has not affected the soybean oil market, which is trading higher with higher palm oil.
• The USDA reported an increase of 4.2 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23, and last week’s export shipments of 10.6 mb were below the 13.0 mb needed each week to meet USDA expectations.
• Argentina’s soy crop is reportedly 78% harvested and local exchanges are estimating production at just 21 mmt, 6 mmt lower than the most recent USDA estimate.

• All three wheat products are trading higher today despite net sales reductions in the export sales report. The gridlock in the Black Sea may be supporting prices.
• The USDA reported net sales cancellations of 1.7 mb of wheat export sales for 22/23, but an increase of 9.0 mb for 23/24. Last week’s export shipments of 14.2 mb were far below the 39.2 mb needed each week to meet USDA expectations.
• There has been confirmation that US mills have imported wheat supplies from both Poland and Germany into the southwest and Texas Gulf.
• In Argentina, rain has begun to fall, which is too late to be beneficial to their corn and bean crops and is delaying that harvest, but will be beneficial for soil moisture in the upcoming wheat planting.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading higher again today and is on track for the third consecutive close. There has been no real bullish fundamental news, so the rally seems technical and seasonal.
• Trade is focused on the financial situation regarding the debt ceiling and when an agreement will be reached. This has negatively affected the equity markets and the deadline is this Friday.
• China has been purchasing more wheat and less corn and has been sourcing primarily from Australia. This adds concerns to more sales cancellations.
• Both the northern and southern Plains are forecast to receive rains which are much needed, but dryness is still expected for the heart of the Corn Belt in the short term.

• Soybeans began the day lower, but are trading higher now, along with soybean meal and oil. A jump in crude oil by over a dollar a barrel has been supportive.
• Commercial crude inventories fell by 12.5 million barrels for the week ending May 19. This comes as Saudi Arabia is signaling that production cuts may be incoming, driving up crude prices and helping the soy complex.
• July soybean meal is making new lows as Brazil exports soybeans into Argentina, so that they can offset their crush facilities form their poor crop.
• Soymeal has been under pressure with China saying they will use less soymeal and corn for feed and more wheat, and soybean oil has found no support from palm oil, which continues to fall.

• Wheat is trading lower today after a pop yesterday caused by headlines that Russia was blocking ship traffic to Ukraine’s largest port and is slowing other traffic in the Black Sea.
• Chinese wheat imports for the first four months of the year are 6 mmt, which is up 61% from a year ago, with the primary seller being Australia. This comes as China looks to utilize more wheat instead of corn and soy for feed.
• There have been reports of wheat being imported into the US from Europe to take advantage of the cheaper prices, which has added to bearish sentiment.
• Rain continues to fall in North Dakota and the northern Plains, which is delaying plantings, and rains in the southern Plains threaten wheat quality in early harvest.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn is higher again today after resistance was found at the 5-dollar mark in December, causing funds to cover some shorts and spur buying.
• Planting progress jumped ahead again to 81% complete vs 65% last week. Emergence is now at 52% compared to 30% last week.
• There is some talk of a “flash drought” in the heart of the Corn Belt that is forecasting lack of rain for the next 10 days.
• July corn in Brazil is trading lower today and is at the equivalent of $4.58 a bushel on the Bovespa exchange as they continue receiving good moisture.

• Soybeans are trading lower along with both soybean meal and oil after yesterday’s rally. Soybean oil is leading the way lower despite higher crude prices as palm oil prices fall.
• The USDA reported that 66% of the soybean crop has been planted and 36% has emerged. Planting is 10 percentage points ahead of where it was in 2016, which was the year the US recorded the highest soybean yield.
• Illinois and Iowa are leading the way at 85% and 84% planted, while North Dakota is only 20% planted due to wet field conditions.
• The anticipation of the US having a record crop, along with Brazil already recording a record crop, is pressuring soy prices heavily and will likely result in a large jump in ending stocks.

• Wheat is trading higher on tensions between Russia and Ukraine that may disrupt trade further along with the poor wheat crop in Kansas.
• Crop progress reported that 61% of winter wheat was headed, which is on par with its usual pace, and 31% is rated good to excellent, which was a 2% improvement from last week. In Kansas, the poor to very poor rating increased by 1% to 69%.
• There have been reports of wheat being imported into the US from Europe to take advantage of the cheaper prices which has added to bearish sentiment.
• The largest port in Ukraine, Pivdennyi, has not been receiving vessels as Russia has not been allowing it despite the extension of the agreement. It is not yet known why, but it is disrupting exports.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn is continuing to push higher with July leading the way after a poor showing last week that saw the July contract losing 30 cents on the week. Chinese cancellations and poor exports were to blame.
• While Brazil is expected to have a record corn crop at 130 mmt, Argentina’s crop keeps looking worse, and while the USDA is still estimating production at 37 mmt, most analysts are projecting closer to 30 mmt.
• With Chinese cancellations of US corn, the USDA will likely need to lower their yearly corn exports in the next WASDE. China’s corn imports from the US in April were under 54,000 mt which compares to 1.51 million mt a year ago.
• There was an announced corn tender by Taiwan’s MFIG for 65,000 mt of optional corn.

• Soybeans are moving sharply higher and are on track to recover all of the losses from Friday. Both soybean oil and meal are higher along with crude oil.
• Palm oil was down 1.52% today, which put some early pressure on soybean oil, but both soy products have recovered as those markets were getting oversold.
• China logged imports from Brazil that were down 16% from a year ago at just 5.4 mmt which causes some concern about China’s economy and their demand.
• Brazil’s soybean crop is harvested and now Safras and Mercado raised their production estimates to 155.7 mmt vs the USDA’s 155 mmt.

• Wheat is mixed today with Chicago and KC higher but Minn struggling. The Kansas HRW wheat tour results are supportive of prices.
• The Kansas wheat tour is expecting the lowest production in 66 years, and issues at Ukraine’s largest port with Russians disrupting shipments are bullish factors today.
• Another vessel of Polish wheat reportedly is headed to Florida and would be the third cargo imported from Europe by millers in Florida.
• Russian wheat production is being estimated higher by Sov Econ to 88 mmt, up 1.2 mmt. Russian FOB values are extremely cheap and are said to be $250 mt into August.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Despite a lower soybean crop estimate, Argentina kept their corn crop production unchanged at 36 mmt.
• The International Grain Council estimated the 23/24 corn crop at a near-record 1.2 billion metric tons.
• China has 84 mb of US corn remaining on the books, meaning that more cancellations are possible.
• The climate prediction center is forecasting drought improvement in the western US plains over the next 3 months. 
• July corn on Brazil’s Bovespa exchange is making new lows and trading around the equivalent of $4.49 per bushel.

• Argentina lowered their soybean crop estimate to 21 mmt from 22.5 previously. The USDA is still using a number of 27 mmt.
• Stochastics for both July and November soybeans indicate oversold conditions.
• Soybean crush premium (based on July futures) is down 12 cents this week to $1.89 per bushel. This is the lowest number since last summer.
• Crude oil is higher at midday, offering some support to the soybean oil market. Higher palm oil is also supportive.

• Parts of the southwestern Plains, including parts of Texas and Oklahoma, will see some more beneficial rains.
• The HRW crop tour came up with a yield of 30 bpa (vs a 5-year average of 45 bpa), and the lowest crop production estimate since 1963, at 178 mb.
• Despite the Black Sea corridor extension, there are said to be 62 vessels waiting for inspection, which is a slow process.
• Ukraine’s president is going to Japan to visit with the G7, to ask for support against Russia.
• Russian wheat export FOB values hit a 22-month low, at $250 per metric ton.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• The USDA reported net cancellations of 13.3 mb of 22/23 corn export sales, but an increase of 2.9 mb for 23/24.
• Funds continue to add to net short positions, vs a long position at this time last year.
• The US Midwest weather is mostly favorable and long-range forecasts do not indicate heat levels this summer that would cause the market to rally sharply.
• China’s recent corn cancellations now total 43.5 mb.

• The USDA reported an increase of 0.6 mb of 22/23 soybean export sales and an increase of 24.4 mb for 23/24.
• Despite earlier weakness, soybeans are around neutral and as of this writing have had a wide daily trading range. July soybeans so far today are in about a 25-cent range.
• NOPA stocks were higher than expected, which may put some pressure on soybean oil.
• Palm oil is lower for the 4th day in a row and that could also weigh on soybean oil. 

• The USDA reported net cancellations of 1.5 mb of 22/23 wheat export sales, but an increase of 12.4 mb for 23/24.
• The day 2 yield estimate on the HRW wheat crop tour came in at 27.5 bpa (vs 37 last year).
• Rains in Kansas are offering some resistance to the wheat market, even though it may be too little too late for that crop. The moisture could be beneficial to spring planted crops though.
• The Black Sea Grain Initiative has officially been extended for another 60 days.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• December corn hit a 1-year low yesterday, likely in anticipation of a record Brazil safrinha crop, as well as a larger US corn crop this fall.
• US weather looks mostly favorable for planting, but North Dakota is still behind with only 5% of the crop planted.
• Private exporters reported the cancellation of 272,000 mt of corn for delivery to China during the 22/23 marketing year.

• North Dakota is said to only have 2% of the soybean crop planted, which could mean prevented acres in 2023.
• July soybeans on China’s Dalian Exchange were down 2.3% yesterday, around the equivalent of $15.41 per bushel.
• July soybean futures have filled the gap that was left on the chart back in late July of 2022 (from 13.55-3/4)
• Brazilian soybean oil is now the world’s cheapest vegetable oil.

• The Day 1 yield estimate on the HRW wheat crop tour was 29.8 bpa (this is the worst number since the tour began in 2003 – normal is around 45 bpa).
• The last vessel left a Black Sea port Wednesday, as expiration of the corridor deal is upon us. However, some sources are reporting that Turkey has announced another extension.
• JP Morgan has stated that a recession is certain, which could mean that commodity demand down the road is still a major concern.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• The USDA said the corn crop is 65% planted, vs 59% average and 49% last week.
• On Brazil’s Bovespa Exchange, July corn is near the lowest level in 2 years, indicating a good safrinha crop.
• North Dakota corn is only 5% planted, but a warmer and drier forecast this week should help that pace pick up.
• While CONAB’s estimate is 125.5 mmt of Brazilian corn production, the USDA is projecting a 130.0 mmt crop.

• The USDA said the soybean crop is 49% planted, vs 36% average and 35% last year.
• Brazil’s record soybean harvest is almost complete and if the US has a good growing season as well, there could be significant pressure on soybeans down the road.
• Old crop US soybeans supplies will remain limited through the summer, reflected in the premium of July over November.
• Competition from rapeseed oil and sunflower oil may be weighing on soybean oil.

• The USDA rated the winter wheat crop at 29% good to excellent, unchanged from last week, and up 2% from this time last year.
• The USDA said 40% of the spring wheat crop is planted vs 57% average and 24% last week. 
• There still has not been any agreement on the Black Sea grain export deal, which will expire on the 18th unless a resolution is reached.
• The Kansas wheat crop is said to be rated 68% poor to very poor, and dismal conditions are likely to be confirmed by the Kansas wheat crop tour.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• The lower HRW wheat crop could suggest higher corn feeding in the southwestern US.
• Central Brazil is on the dry side, which raises some question about their safrinha crop.
• With the May WASDE report out of the way, the market will likely now focus on weather. Currently, conditions in the Midwest are mostly favorable.
• Heavy rains over the weekend in the northern Corn Belt caused some flooding issues and planting delays.
• On Friday’s CFTC report, managed funds are still short more than 100,000 contracts (as of last Tuesday).

• There is concern about Argentina’s economy with soaring inflation, and there is question as to whether or not they can ship the amount of meal that they do normally.
• There is indication that some meal buyers may be shifting demand to the US, with export sales last week higher than expected.
• The USDA estimate of 335 mb of US 23/24 soybean carryout would be the highest in 4 years.
• The Rosario Exchange estimated Argentina’s soybean crop at 21.5 mmt, which is 5.5 mmt lower than the USDA on Friday’s WASDE report.

• On Friday’s report the USDA estimated 1.66 bb of US wheat production, which was lower than expected. This number, if true, will mean the lowest three years of wheat production in 50 years.
• So far there has been no new news on the Black Sea export deal and whether or not it will be renewed. The current deal is set to expire in just a few days.
• The USDA projected Kansas winter wheat production at 191.4 mb, which would be the lowest number in over 50 years.
• The El Nino pattern this year could lead to drought issues for Australia’s wheat crop.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.