Over the weekend, rainfall in the Midwest was scattered and spotty. Additionally, the week one weather forecast shows a few light showers in the Midwest with temperatures below normal. The second week shows better chances for rain and temperatures warming up.
Outside markets could be an influence this week. The Fed will come out with their decision on interest rates, and whether or not they will take a pause, or issue another increase.
Brazil is experiencing some cold temperatures with more in the forecast, which could impact their later planted corn crop.
Ag Resource has reportedly dropped their US corn yield projection to 177 bpa. The USDA is using a yield of 181.5 bpa.
At midday, crude oil is down over $3 per barrel. This is likely weighing on soybean oil and limiting upside price movement in soybeans.
China has been accused of shipping “fake” biodiesel to secure European grants. This could increase US soybean oil demand from Europe if they reduce imports from China.
According to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board, stocks of palm oil at the end of May were up 13% from the previous month.
Expectations for this afternoon’s Crop Progress report are to show a decline in the good to excellent rating for soybeans (and corn).
On Friday’s report, the USDA lowered Argentina’s soybean crop by 2 mmt to 25 mmt. Argentina’s exchanges, however, are 3 mmt lower at 22 mmt.
Funds are reported to be net short 122,280 contracts of Chicago wheat.
Friday’s USDA report showed higher US HRW wheat production on the order of 11 mb. This is interesting, considering the recent challenges faced in the US southern Plains, but is attributed to the recent rains in Texas and Oklahoma.
Dryness in Spain and northern France could mean lower wheat crops there. One group is estimating a decrease of European wheat production by 2.1 mmt for this reason. This would bring the European wheat crop to 142.4 mmt.
Alberta, Canada received some rain this weekend, but most of the Canadian prairies remain too dry.
The USDA raised their estimate of global wheat ending stocks on Friday’s report. This adds to pressure on US futures and may be one reason why wheat is trading mixed to lower at midday.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower ahead of today’s WASDE report and is also being pressured by rain in the forecast this weekend for the Midwest.
Rain is expected this weekend and early next week for the Corn Belt, but Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio rain totals are only projected to reach an inch or slightly more.
The focus of today’s WASDE report will likely be on corn ending stocks which are expected to increase, and Argentina’s production which the USDA will likely decrease.
Monday’s crop progress will probably show a decline in good to excellent ratings following the dry weather, but ratings could easily jump higher after a week of decent rains.
Soybeans are trading higher after getting a boost from a reported flash sale. Soybean oil is higher and is being supportive while soybean meal is lower.
Private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 197,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations for the 22/23 marketing year. The marketing year for soybeans began on September 1.
In today’s WASDE report, traders will focus on production cuts for Argentina with estimates of a 3 mmt decline to 24 mmt. Argentina’s real production will likely be closer to 20 mmt.
Palm oil futures have been a large bearish factor for the soybean oil market and palm oil fell 1.72% today as supplies continue to rise in both Malaysia and Indonesia.
Wheat was mixed this morning, but Chicago has turned lower bringing all three products down for the day. Funds remain short as Russia continues to offer wheat for significantly cheaper cash prices.
The WASDE report estimates from the Dow Jones survey have US wheat ending stocks moving higher by just 8 mb to 606 mb, but adjustments down the line are possible thanks to recent rains.
Russia continues to keep their grip on the export market making sales to Egypt, and there have been reports of Russian offers for August as low as $226/mt FOB Black Sea for 12.5 protein wheat.
French wheat conditions have fallen for two straight weeks and went from 93% good to excellent to 88% due to heat and dryness, and China, Australia, and Argentina are having issues with their wheat crops as well.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is mixed at midday with July higher and deferred contracts lower as the bull spreading continues and forecasts turn wetter.
The GFS weather model has shown more rain than the European, but the European has slowly been shifting to be more in line with the GFS and added rainfall over the next 10 days in the Midwest.
Net sales of corn for 22/23 were 172,700 mt and were down 8% from the previous week but up from the prior 4-week average. There were net sales reductions for the 23/24 marketing year of 106,800 mt.
Corn exports of 1,244,700 mt were down 13% from the previous week and 4% from the prior 4-week average as Brazil continues to sell corn for significantly cheaper.
The soy complex is mixed alongside corn with front months higher but November slightly lower. Soybean meal is lower while soybean oil is getting support from higher crude oil.
Palm oil futures have been a large bearish factor for the soybean oil market and palm oil fell 1.72% today as supplies continue to rise in both Malaysia and Indonesia.
China is ramping up their soy purchases chiefly from Brazil and taken in 12.2 mmt in April, which was an increase of 24% from a year ago. Estimates for their imports in May and June are between 12 and 14 mmt.
Net soybean sales for 22/23 were 207,200 mt, up 68% from the previous week, and up from the prior 4-week average. Sales for 23/24 were 264,600 mt, and exports of 247,600 mt were up 7% from the previous week.
Wheat is trading higher today with Minneapolis leading the way and KC following behind. It is possible that ramifications from the Ukrainian dam explosion are supporting the market today.
Russia continues to keep their grip on the export market making sales to Egypt, and there have been reports of Russian offers for August as low as $226/mt FOB Black Sea for 12.5 protein wheat.
In tomorrow’s WASDE report traders are expecting a slight increase to US ending stocks for wheat as a result of very sluggish export sales.
Net sales of wheat for 23/24, which began on June 1, were 234,800 mt, and a total of 877,400 mt in sales were carried over from the 22/23 marketing year. Exports for the period ending May 31 were 87,300 mt, which brought total exports to 17,758,500 mt and down 5% from the previous year.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading mixed midday with front month July trading slightly higher, while deferred contracts are lower.
Forecasts for the Corn Belt trended a bit wetter and cooler overnight which is pressuring new crop, while on-hand supplies remain tight.
Brazil’s FOB corn offers are reportedly at an 85-cent discount to offers from the US at the equivalent of $4.60 per bushel giving Brazil a clear advantage over exports.
Corn good to excellent ratings came in at 64% and with recent dryness, ratings could decline further on next week’s report.
Soybeans are mixed as well, with July higher by a few cents but deferred contracts lower. Front month soybean meal is higher, while soybean oil is lower despite higher crude.
Scattered showers are falling from Minnesota into the eastern Corn Belt. The 15-day weather forecast is mixed with the GFS model showing more widespread rains and the European models showing modest coverage.
China’s imports of Brazilian soybeans have increased over the past month due to their significantly cheaper offers.
August palm oil fell by 1.9% after reports came out that Malaysia may end up with a surge in output of about 4.7%.
Wheat is trading sharply lower at midday after hovering near unchanged this morning. There are many bullish fundamentals that should be supporting prices, but Russia continues to undercut the market with offers as low as $299/mt.
The big news yesterday was the explosion of the Ukrainian dam which is causing major flooding in both residential and agricultural land, as well as disruptions to irrigation systems.
Argentinian wheat is being planted with poor soil moisture, Australia’s 23/24 wheat production was cut to just 26.2 mmt, and China’s wheat crop has been hit with heavy rainfall severely cutting into production.
In the US, crop ratings are not good but did increase slightly following rains in HRW wheat areas. US spring wheat should be watched for heat and dryness, however.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher today with front month July leading the way up, while December is showing only slight gains. Crop progress was supportive, while wetter forecasts may limit upward movement.
64% of the corn crop was rated good to excellent which is a decline from last month and the lowest rating for this date since 2013. Illinois is a concern with only 50% of the crop rated good to excellent.
DTN’s 7-day forecast is calling for moderate rain ranging from Montana to the US Gulf, and beneficial amounts in Kansas and Missouri. A front is also expected to move through the US this weekend.
In Brazil, the second crop corn is off to a good start and could be a record crop, but there is a potential frost threat in June which could move through safrinha corn areas.
Soybeans began the day lower but have reversed higher, while soybean meal and oil have reversed positions as well, with meal now lower and oil higher despite a slip in crude oil.
62% of the soybean crop is rated good to excellent which is the lowest rating for that date since 2014 due to the dry weather. Iowa was rated at 70% while Illinois was rated at only 51%.
Brazil continues to dominate the export market with soybeans, but demand from China may be lagging as their economic growth is potentially slower than expected.
August palm oil fell by 1.9% after reports came out that Malaysia may end up with a surge in output of about 4.7%.
Wheat was an early leader in the grain complex after news of escalations in Ukraine were reported, but prices have backed up from their highs and are now lower on the day.
Ukraine claims that Russia blew up a major dam that could threaten hundreds of thousands of residents, the nuclear power plant, as well as major wheat-growing areas.
Yesterday, the USDA said that 82% of the winter wheat is headed and 4% harvested with 36% being rated good to excellent which was up 2% from the previous week.
On Friday, NASS will update its estimate of winter wheat production and the USDA will do the same in the WASDE. Traders are expecting the USDA to reduce export estimates for wheat for the 22/23 year.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is mixed at midday with front month July lower by two cents but the December contract 4 cents higher. Traders will be fixated on weather and dryness should drive prices higher.
The 6–10 day forecast is mostly dry in the Corn Belt with scattered showers, but European and GFS models show rain in the second half of June.
The USDA will release crop progress this afternoon which will likely show a decline in the corn crop ratings. Last week’s rating showed 69% good to excellent, but it may drop by a few points due to lack of rain.
Brazilian corn remains significantly cheaper with their FOB corn prices in June below the US July futures. On the Bovespa exchange, July corn is trading at the equivalent of $4.58 a bushel.
Soybeans are trading slightly lower, while soy products are mixed. Soybean meal is about 1% higher, while soybean oil is 1% lower despite gains in crude oil.
The lack of rains recently has helped support soybeans as it has with corn, but more substantial rains will likely fall in the second half of this month, and soybeans are able to deal with the temporary dryness a bit better than corn.
Brazil is said to have harvested 5.7 billion bushels of soybeans, which would be the most on record for a single country. Additionally, they are said to have exported 15.1 mmt in May, which is 40% above last year.
According to the USDA, about 28% of US soybean production areas are in drought as of May 30.
All three wheat contracts are trading higher this morning despite the fact that both corn and soybeans turned around and are now trading lower on the day.
There is concern that the world wheat supply will be much tighter than anticipated, and traders will get an idea of that when the WASDE report is released this Friday.
The Crop Progress report today will give an indication if the recent rains in HRW wheat areas were enough to improve crop ratings. Last week’s ratings pegged US winter wheat’s good to excellent rating at 34%.
The wet weather has subsided for now in China’s wheat growing regions. However, the recent heavy rains could cause quality reductions, or even crop loss.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The USDA reported an increase of 7.4 mb of corn export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 12.3 mb for 23/24.
According to the USDA, about 34% of US corn production areas are in drought as of May 30th.
Today’s weather forecast is mostly dry for the next 10 days in the Midwest, but the western Plains look like they will have better chances for rain. In fact, there are flash flood warnings around the Texas panhandle.
July corn is seeing more price pressure vs new crop. This is likely due to the start of Brazil’s safrinha crop harvest and the fact that their prices are lower than the US.
The USDA reported an increase of 4.5 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 11.1 mb for 23/24.
According to the USDA, about 28% of US soybean production areas are in drought as of May 30th.
The NASS Crush report showed 187 mb of US soybeans were crushed in April. In addition, soybean oil stocks at the end of April were up 3% from (vs last year) and meal stocks were up 28% for the same time frame.
Brazil is said to have harvested 5.7 billion bushels of soybeans, which would be the most on record for a single country. Additionally, they are said to have exported 15.1 mmt in May, which is 40% above last year.
The USDA reported net cancellations of 7.7 mb of wheat export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 17.1 mb for 23/24.
According to Ukrainian officials, Russia is reportedly refusing to register Ukrainian grain vessels. This is not the first time this news has surfaced, but it signifies that there is still much tension between the two nations, even after the Black Sea deal was last extended.
The wet weather has subsided for now in China’s wheat growing regions. However, the recent heavy rains could cause quality reductions, or even crop loss.
As of the latest Commitments of Traders report, funds are said to be short 605 mb of SRW wheat. For reference, the USDA is estimating US production of that crop at 406 mb in 2023.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Yesterday’s closes in grains were well off of the daily lows, and prices are higher at midday today. This signals support at these lower levels.
The debt ceiling deal was passed in the US House and is now moving onto the Senate, potentially offering some support to commodities.
July corn on Brazil’s Bovespa Exchange was lower again, around the equivalent of $4.45 per bushel. This is likely in anticipation of a record safrinha crop and is close to the lowest level in two years.
Sales of corn by Argentina’s farmers total 12.3 mmt to date, compared with 25.8 mmt at this time last year.
On China’s Dalian Exchange, July soybeans hit a new low – the equivalent of $14.47 per bushel. This takes out the previous close of $14.53 (equivalent).
Soybean meal has been trending lower, but is sharply higher at midday – this is supporting soybean futures.
Crude oil has recently been under pressure and is currently below $70 per barrel. This is likely on concern about global economics, especially with China’s economy said to be slowing. This also has been pressuring soybean oil, but both commodities are higher at midday today.
Chinese crush margins are turning negative, which could lead to a slowdown in future purchases of soybeans.
The western prairies in Canada have recently seen beneficial rains to help their wheat crop, and over the next week or so there will be widespread rain in Saskatchewan and western Alberta.
Spain is experiencing drought, but elsewhere in Europe and the Black Sea, wheat crop conditions are favorable. Some of Russia’s spring wheat areas remain dry, however.
Recent heavy rains in China’s wheat growing regions could reduce quality of that crop. Therefore, they may use more wheat for feed.
This morning, there were flash flood warnings in the Texas panhandle area. The wheat crop in this area was already struggling and this may further complicate the problems there.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The USDA said 92% of the corn crop is planted vs 84% on average. The crop was also rated 69% good to excellent.
In the face of the national 69% GTE rating, areas of the central and eastern Corn Belt will need more rain.
The December corn daily futures chart is possibly forming the right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulders pattern. If it solidifies, it could point to a price recovery.
July corn on Brazil’s Bovespa Exchange is trading around the equivalent of $4.54 per bushel.
The USDA said 83% of the soybean crop is planted vs 65% average.
July soybeans on China’s Dalian Exchange hit the lowest level in two years due to concerns about demand. That contract is now around the equivalent of $14.53 per bushel.
July soybean meal hit the lowest level since August of 2022.
Palm oil is lower due to talk of better production, India possibly increasing their import duty, and potentially lower China demand.
The USDA rated the winter wheat crop at 34% good to excellent vs 31% last week.
The USDA said the spring wheat crop is 85% planted vs 86% average.
Kansas winter wheat is still struggling, even with recent rains. Their crop is rated 69% poor to very poor.
The US Dollar Index continues to trend higher, which may limit upside potential for wheat as it makes it more expensive for importing countries.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Yesterday the American weather model put more rains into the Midwest (especially the 8-14 day timeframe). This may be weighing on grain futures this morning.
Reportedly, an agreement has been reached to raise the US debt ceiling, but now that deal must be passed by congress.
July corn on Brazil’s Bovespa Exchange is around the equivalent of $4.94 per bushel.
According to AgRural, their projection of Brazil’s total corn production has been raised to 127.4 mmt (vs 125.1 mmt previously).
Based on July futures, board crush is the lowest since June of 2022.
Prop 12 in California will start July 1. These new rules affect the treatment / living conditions of hogs but could also affect demand for soybean meal.
China’s economy is continuing to slow down, increasing concerns that they may not be able to import the same quantity of commodities as in years past.
July soybeans on China’s Dalian exchange were down 1.8% Tuesday, around the equivalent of $14.80 per bushel.
The wheat market may be concerned about lower demand for US wheat due to global financial issues. Limited cash availability in parts of north Africa and the middle east could mean reduced demand there.
It remains dry in northern Europe and parts of the Russian spring wheat areas.
In opposition to the El Nino pattern, Australia is starting to get some rains. This may alleviate some concern about drought for their upcoming wheat crop, though it is still early to make that determination.
Floods this weekend in the Texas Panhandle area certainly did not help the crop there. Their forecast this week also calls for moderate to heavy rain, causing more concern.
Despite Russia’s attack over the weekend on the Odesa port in Ukraine (which is protected by the agreement), wheat is sharply lower at midday today.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
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