Corn is continuing higher today after yesterday morning’s announcement of a net sales cancellation as technicals became oversold, and non-commercials are likely doing some short covering ahead of the weekend.
Much of the strength in the corn market is owed to gains in wheat as the Black Sea grain deal ends on the May 18 with little hope that Russia will agree to renew.
China’s corn prices fell again today and, notably, China made its first ever purchase of corn from South Africa in an attempt to diversify their suppliers.
Warming temperatures this week should allow for more favorable planting conditions across much of the Midwest.
Soybeans, soybean meal and oil are trading higher today, fueled by gains in crude oil of nearly 3.00 a barrel in an apparent reversal where the bottom may have been put in yesterday.
The Fed signaled that they may be done with rate hikes for the rest of the year barring further inflationary news which is bullish for crude and most commodities.
In Argentina, the Buenos Aries Grain Exchange has hinted at a further cut their estimates of soy production which is already a record low 22.5 mmt due to the extreme drought. Final production could be under 20 mmt.
Old crop soybean supply may be limited this summer, which should lend some support to the market.
Wheat is leading the grain market higher with the main catalyst being the alleged Ukrainian drone strike on the Kremlin which Russia claims was meant as an assassination attempt on Vladimir Putin.
The increase in tensions right as the Black Sea grain deal is set to expire does not bode well for their exports, and the number of vessels coming in and out of the region is falling.
Non-commercials are currently net short wheat, and this may be the trigger for short covering in a big way between technicals and the political climate.
The Wheat Quality Council Tour begins on May 15 which will give a better idea to the damage of the Kansas crop, but the Oklahoma crop is already reportedly the smallest since 1955.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The USDA reported net cancellations of 12.4 mb of corn export sales for 22/23, and an increase of 4.8 mb for 23/24.
Yesterday the market had a knee jerk reaction to news that there was an attempted drone strike on the Kremlin. Grains did not follow through overnight, with corn, soybeans, and wheat all in the red to start the morning. At midday, however, wheat is turning positive.
The Fed did raise interest rates one quarter percent yesterday. But Chairman Powell’s comments about a pause in increasing rates could offer support to financial and commodity markets.
Warming temperatures this week should allow for more favorable planting conditions across much of the Midwest.
The USDA reported an increase of 10.6 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23, and an increase of 2.5 mb for 23/24.
Brazil soybeans are cheaper than US, especially to China. This could further reduce US export demand.
Old crop soybean supply may be limited this summer, which should lend some support to the market.
There is renewed concern about the banking crisis, with the sharp drop in Pac West share price. This could weigh on financial markets and spill over into commodities.
Based on July futures, the crush premium for soybeans is about $1.88 per bushel.
The USDA reported an increase of 7.8 mb of wheat export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 10.3 mb for 23/24.
Russia said they shot down the drone attack yesterday, but the increase in tensions suggest that there will not be an extension of the Black Sea export deal on May 18.
Speculators are said to hold short positions of SRW wheat that amount to over 130,000 contracts.
The Kansas winter wheat crop tour will be May 15-18. It is likely to show poor conditions.
A Turkish bank has agreed to process payments for Russian exports, but a signed agreement is needed.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Sharply lower crude oil yesterday (and so far today) may be the result of renewed economic concerns, with the Fed expected to raise interest rates this afternoon. This pressure could spill over into commodities.
The second crop (safrinha) corn in Brazil is in good condition. Southern and western Brazil have chances of showers over the next week or so.
Once the safrinha corn crop is harvested (around the July time frame) it could flood the market due to record crop size and lack of storage availability in Brazil.
A return to warmer and drier conditions for much of the Midwest should result in a pickup in planting pace.
Due to a lack of storage, Brazilian soybeans continue to flood the market. This is offering weakness to US futures and cash (and may lower US exports).
Higher temperatures (60s and 70s) in the Dakotas over the next couple weeks should help get the soybean crop planted there.
The drop in crude oil is weighing on soybean oil, which is in turn pressuring soybeans.
Daily stochastics show that both old and new crop soybeans are oversold – this could indicate that they are probing for a bottom.
Egypt bought wheat from Romania and Russia. The Russian wheat was purchased at $260 per ton. Russia had previously encouraged a $275 price floor on exports. (US SRW wheat is currently the world’s cheapest but is at a freight cost disadvantage).
Russia is engaging in talks to extend the Black Sea export deal. However, many feel that they will not extend the agreement again without reduced sanctions.
The Oklahoma wheat tour projected their crop at 54.3 mb. This would be the lowest crop since 1955.
The GFS weather model is projecting rains of up to 5-7 inches in parts of Nebraska and Kansas next week. The European model is drier, however.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Sharply lower crude oil yesterday (and so far today) may be the result of renewed economic concerns, with the Fed expected to raise interest rates this afternoon. This pressure could spill over into commodities.
The second crop (safrinha) corn in Brazil is in good condition. Southern and western Brazil have chances of showers over the next week or so.
Once the safrinha corn crop is harvested (around the July time frame) it could flood the market due to record crop size and lack of storage availability in Brazil.
A return to warmer and drier conditions for much of the Midwest should result in a pickup in planting pace.
Due to a lack of storage, Brazilian soybeans continue to flood the market. This is offering weakness to US futures and cash (and may lower US exports).
Higher temperatures (60s and 70s) in the Dakotas over the next couple weeks should help get the soybean crop planted there.
The drop in crude oil is weighing on soybean oil, which is in turn pressuring soybeans.
Daily stochastics show that both old and new crop soybeans are oversold – this could indicate that they are probing for a bottom.
Egypt bought wheat from Romania and Russia. The Russian wheat was purchased at $260 per ton. Russia had previously encouraged a $275 price floor on exports. (US SRW wheat is currently the world’s cheapest but is at a freight cost disadvantage).
Russia is engaging in talks to extend the Black Sea export deal. However, many feel that they will not extend the agreement again without reduced sanctions.
The Oklahoma wheat tour projected their crop at 54.3 mb. This would be the lowest crop since 1955.
The GFS weather model is projecting rains of up to 5-7 inches in parts of Nebraska and Kansas next week. The European model is drier, however.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The USDA said 26% of the corn crop is planted (vs 14% last week and 26% average).
Central Brazil is drying out and looks to remain mostly dry through the end of the month. However, their soil moisture may be enough to get through the dry pattern.
Barge traffic on the upper Mississippi River has been halted because of high water levels.
China is on May Day holiday until Thursday. As of Friday’s close, July corn on their Dalian exchange hit a contract low.
The USDA said 19% of the soybean crop is planted (vs 9% last week and 11% average).
NASS said soybean oil and soybean meal stocks (at the end of March) are down 7% from last year.
On the Fats & Oils report, census crush for April was pegged at 198 mb.
There still have not been any soybean or soybean meal deliveries against the May contract. This is an indicator of tight supplies.
The USDA said 28% of the winter wheat crop is rated good to excellent (vs 26% last week and 27% last year).
The USDA said 12% of the spring wheat crop is planted (vs 5% last week and 22% average).
Despite some rains last week in the southern plains, Kansas winter wheat poor to very poor condition increased 2% from last week to 64%.
The US Dollar Index is beginning to trend higher, and the Fed is anticipated to raise interest rates another 25 basis points at this week’s FOMC meeting.
GASC in Egypt is said to be tendering for wheat. With the recent decline in price, it is possible that they purchase from the US but freight cost could be the deciding factor.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The Fed is expected to again raise interest rates at this week’s FOMC meeting. But the second largest bank failure in US history (First Republic Bank) could cause them to think twice.
Funds are now estimated to be net short 40,000 corn contracts. They are said to have sold 146,000 contracts in total last week in the grain room.
This week should be mostly cool and dry across the Midwest, but widespread rains are forecast to return this weekend.
The USDA may need to lower their US corn export estimate. Commitments are currently still down 33% from last year.
The E15 waiver may be passed to allow for sales of ethanol blended gasoline during the summer months.
China’s PMI data was lower in April than in March – this could indicate a shrinking economy.
Funds are said to have substantially reduced their long positions in soybeans and soybean meal.
The third iteration of the soy / peso exchange rate program in Argentina is said to have resulted in 2 mmt of soybean sold.
So far there have been zero deliveries (for the May contract) of soybeans or soybean meal. However, there have been some soybean oil deliveries.
On this afternoon’s Crop Progress report, winter wheat is expected to show better ratings after the rains last week in the southern Plains.
The EU made a deal with countries in eastern Europe that will allow Ukraine’s exports to continue to pass west through that region, but imports would be banned in 5 countries.
North Dakota could see high temperatures by the middle of the week, which may improve planting conditions for spring wheat.
The deadline for an extension of the Black Sea grain deal is May 18. At this time, it seems unlikely that Russia will renew.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower for the third consecutive day and the July contract has lost approximately 71 cents from last week’s high following the Chinese sales cancellations.
Total cancellations by China this week were 21 mb, and yesterday’s export sales were disappointing at just 15.7 mb with total sales commitments down 33% from a year ago.
There were no deliveries against the May contract, and open interest fell by 13,000 contracts yesterday as funds build a net short position.
In order for the Black Sea agreement to be renewed, Russia is asking for terms that will likely not be met, so the deal may expire which could be bullish for corn and wheat.
Soybeans have been trading either side of unchanged today but are currently slightly lower. There is support from higher soybean oil as crude oil rises, while soybean meal is lower.
There were 199 deliveries against May soybean oil but no deliveries against soybeans or soybean meal.
Malaysian palm oil futures fell by 2.95% on Friday and are down nearly 11% for the month of April due to poor exports and a large Indonesian supply.
The Argentinian soybean crop is just over 28% harvested with new production estimates between 20 and 23 mmt which compares to last week’s harvest of 43.5 mmt.
Wheat is trading mixed today with Chicago and KC wheat lower but Minneapolis wheat slightly higher. If the trend lower continues, July wheat would be on track for an eighth consecutively lower close.
On a friendlier note, soft red winter wheat US FOB prices are now cheaper than the offers from Russia after Russia established a price floor at $275 per ton.
There was a total of 854 contracts delivered against the May Chicago wheat contract yesterday but no deliveries for KC or Minn wheat.
Paris milling wheat futures hit a new low today and have fallen 6 out of the past 8 trading days as French soft wheat is now rated at 94% good-to-excellent which is the best rating since 2011.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading sharply lower again today with the July contract breaking below 6 dollars to fill the gap made in July 2022. Another sale cancellation to China of 12.9 mb of corn is pressuring the market.
Corn export sales of 15.7 mb for 22/23 were up 28% from the previous week but down 49% from the prior 4-week average. Last week’s export shipments of 42.4 mb were below the 48.1 mb needed each week.
Ethanol production slowed last week with production falling by 5.6% to just 967,000 barrels per day.
Brazil’s safrinha corn has benefited from very good weather and a record crop is expected. Because of this, Brazilian corn will most likely be cheaper than US offers this summer.
Soybeans are lower for the 7th consecutive day while July soybean meal is lower for the 8th day. Soybean oil is down as well for the 6th day as palm oil continues its decline and is off 3.22% for its lowest close since October.
Soybean export sales of 11.4 mb for 22/23 were up from the previous week and up 38% from the prior 4-week average. Shipments of 16.7 mb were above the 13.2 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimates.
With Brazil’s harvest nearly complete, FOB basis has stabilized, and Paranagua basis has reportedly risen by 40 cents this week, which should be supportive to US prices.
Cargill’s head trader in Brazil has reported that Chinese demand for Brazilian soybeans has been lighter than anticipated, which has created a storage issue and has caused more producers to sell cash beans.
Wheat is lower for the 7th consecutive day as US weather improves, funds continue to add to their short position, and grains keep leaving from Black Sea ports.
Export sales of 5.7 mb for 22/23 of wheat were down 40% from the previous week and down 7% from the prior 4-week average. For the 23/24 marketing year, there was an increase of 7.4 mb.
Last week’s wheat export shipments were 11.2 mb and were below the 20.8 mb needed each week to achieve the USDA’s export estimate of 775 mb for 22/23.
There is doubt that the Black Sea Grain Initiative will be renewed by May 18, and Russia is insisting on changes to payments, logistics, and insurance on its own exports before agreeing to extend.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly lower with the markets relatively quiet so far. The US Dollar has fallen sharply, which should be friendly to commodities, and with corn so oversold, funds may be easing on their selling.
There has been little in the way of fresh news, but tight old crop supplies in the western Corn Belt have kept basis firm while improving ethanol margins keep domestic demand strong for old crop.
The Black Sea grain deal has been a point of contention and it looks as though Russia will not renew a third extension of the deal unless sanctions on them are lifted, which would be supportive for corn and wheat.
Planting in the US is beginning to kick off in a bigger way as weather improves, and most combines should be rolling by the beginning of next month as rain chances are below normal in the Midwest.
Soybeans are trading slightly higher thanks to a bounce in soybean oil that comes despite another drop in crude oil prices, as well as a 1.76% decline in palm oil futures. Soybean meal is currently trading lower.
While Brazil’s harvest is now over 95% completed and those bushels are dominating exports, Argentina has stopped offering exports now that their production is estimated at only 22-25 mmt.
A longer-term bearish factor is that Brazil is planning to expand their planted acres for 23/24 and their production estimate for that marketing year is coming in at 159 mmt compared to the 153 mmt this year.
Canada is expected to release their seeding intentions with canola seeding up 500,000 acres to 21.8 million acres, which is up 0.9% from last year.
All three wheat products are lower today, but Minneapolis is leading the way down with KC wheat trailing behind as weather improves slightly.
Rains are expected to continue tonight in the hard red winter wheat areas and may even go into the weekend, while heavy storms will hit the Texas panhandle and go into western Oklahoma early on Wednesday.
As with corn, wheat traders are looking closely at the Black Sea grain deal which is at risk of not being renewed if Russia doesn’t have their sanctions lifted. This could be friendly for wheat if the deal is not renewed.
Today, Stats Canada released their seeding intentions which showed that all wheat will rise by over 1 million acres to 27 million acres which is up 6.2% from a year ago.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower for the fifth consecutive day, as planting continues in the US and South America sells their cash corn for significantly less than the US offers.
The US Dollar is moving higher today and that, along with lower crude and lower stocks, is putting pressure on grains.
Weekly exports were poor for corn last week and a net cancellation of 326,000 tons of US corn that were to be shipped to China was a bearish influence.
Corn plantings are estimated at 14%, above the 5-year average of 11% with planting ahead of schedule in the South.
Soybeans are trading sharply lower again today and the May contract is over 50 cents off yesterday’s high. Both soybean meal and oil are lower, but oil is posting the biggest losses with crude oil declining over 2 dollars a barrel.
Crop progress showed soybean plantings slightly ahead of schedule with 9% of the crop planted – with Illinois at 15%, Indiana at 8%, Ohio at 6%, and Nebraska at just 4%. One crop scout put the US soybean yield at 52 bpa.
Brazilian soybean export prices have dropped significantly but may be bottoming out as farmer selling slows down for new crop sales.
Last week there was talk that China purchased between 40 and 50 cargoes of soybeans from Brazil which would explain poor export sales in the US.
Wheat is lower with the rest of the grain complex and is being led lower by KC wheat again as weather forecasts call for well-needed rain in Kansas and Oklahoma.
Crop ratings showed the good-to-excellent rating for winter wheat fell by 1% to just 26% which is well below the 5-year average, but 18% of the wheat crop is heading vs 14% on average. For spring wheat, only 5% of the crop is planted vs 17% on average.
Russia is threatening to end Ukrainian grain shipments through the Black Sea which could be supportive for US prices.
APK Inform sees Ukraine’s grain harvest potentially falling by 13% to just 45.6 million metric tons in the 23/25 marketing year compared to 86 mmt before the Russian invasion.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
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Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower as better rain is forecast in the Southern Plains over the next 7 days and temperatures in the Corn Belt are expected to warm up.
US corn export demand is still very sluggish with export commitments down 33% from a year ago.
Conditions for Brazil’s second crop corn have been beneficial, and they are now offering corn at a sharp discount to US prices
Russia is threatening to end the Black Sea grain deal if the G7 decides to ban Russian exports.
Soybeans are trading higher with some help from soybean meal while soybean oil is lower despite higher crude oil.
The US has purchased Brazilian soybeans after their prices dropped significantly, but this should not come as a shock considering that this happens nearly every year.
The CFTC’s Commitment of Traders showed funds as net buyers the previous week, increasing their net long position to 135,000 contracts.
There is talk that Ukraine will plant more oilseeds, which is offering resistance to global vegetable oil markets.
Wheat futures are mixed to lower as weather forecasts vary with some rain in the Texas panhandle, but Kansas is still painfully dry and spring wheat areas received more snow.
Last week’s crop progress for hard red winter wheat was only rated 27% good-to-excellent and those numbers are unlikely to improve with the recent weather conditions.
Russia is threatening to end Ukrainian grain shipments through the Black Sea which could be supportive for US prices.
Friday’s CFTC report showed funds holding a net short position of 105,000 contracts of Chicago wheat.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
