The corn crop was rated 50% good to excellent vs 55% last week (and 67% last year). This is the worst rating for this time of year since 1988.
Corn (and the whole grain complex) is trading lower this morning due to increased chances for rain in the Midwest, especially in some of the areas that missed the last round of precipitation. Currently there are two potential rain events, with the second probably bringing wider coverage and heavier amounts.
Global weather conditions are mostly favorable. It is still dry in Argentina, but as of right now Australia is normal (despite the El Nino weather pattern which could bring them drought).
As of writing, July corn is nearly 75 cents above September. First notice day for July futures is this Friday, meaning any one long futures is at risk of being delivered against. With the quarterly Stocks and Acreage reports also on Friday, markets could remain volatile into the end of the week.
The soybean crop was rated 51% good to excellent vs 54% last week (and 65% last year).
On daily stochastics and the RSI, November soybeans are at or near overbought levels. Momentum is also starting to trend downwards.
Yesterday’s soybean export inspections were poor at only 5.2 mb. This may also be limiting upside in futures, and not just in soybeans. Brazil is undercutting US exports for both corn and beans, while Russia is doing the same in wheat.
July soybean futures are roughly $1 above August, reflecting tight supply of old crop. As with corn, first notice day is on Friday is sure to affect this spread, as traders who are long will need to exit the July contract.
Soybean meal and oil are also lower this morning, offering no support to soybean futures.
The winter wheat crop is 24% harvested, compared to 33% average. Crop conditions did also rise 2% from last week to 40% good to excellent.
The spring wheat crop is rated 50% good to excellent vs 51% last week (and 59% last year).
Yesterday’s concern about availability of Black Sea wheat seems to have since been quashed. The Wagner coup against Russia appears to have disintegrated, and prices faded in tandem.
Paris milling wheat futures gapped lower, also offering no support to US futures today.
Russian wheat FOB export offers a range from roughly $230 – $240 per ton, well below that of US or other world offerings. This is keeping pressure on the US market. However, there is still the possibility that Russia will not extend the Black Sea export deal on July 18th, with reports by the Ukraine Sea Ports Authority that Russia is impeding grain shipments.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Over the weekend, there was good rain in the Dakotas and parts of the northern Midwest. However, several key growing regions appeared to get little to none of this moisture.
The 8-14 day forecast does have above-normal precipitation for the whole Corn Belt. But the key will be whether or not it materializes.
CFTC data showed that funds were buyers of 140,000 grain contracts (corn / soy complex / wheat) as of last Tuesday. This now puts them net long corn (as well as soybeans).
This afternoon’s Crop Progress report is expected to show another decline in corn crop ratings. Traders look for a 2%-4% reduction in the good to excellent category.
As of June 17th, CONAB said 5.3% of Brazil’s second crop (safrinha) corn had been harvested. This is 5.8% behind last year’s pace.
Higher palm oil overnight is supporting soybean oil, which has reversed off of last week’s low. With both oil and meal higher at midday, soybeans are receiving a boost as well.
There are concerns about vegetable oil exports out of Ukraine, with uncertainties surrounding the Russian coup, as well as the potential closure of the Black Sea export corridor in July. This may also be supporting soybean oil.
This afternoon’s Crop Progress report is expected to show another decline in soybean crop ratings. Traders look for a 3%-4% reduction in the good to excellent category.
India’s oilseed exports are anticipated to increase by 10%-15% this fiscal year due to expanding acreage. For 22/23, their oilseed exports rose by 20%. There is still a question, however, as to what effect El Nino may have on the crop down the road.
Strength in the wheat market this morning may be tied to a mutiny by the Wagner group against Russia. However, at this time, it appears they may have made a deal, because the group heading towards Moscow has since turned around and went back to Ukraine. This does still raise questions about the war, and ultimately, what it will mean for wheat exports.
Managed funds are still net short Chicago wheat. With the uncertainty of global weather and geopolitics, the market may also be seeing some short covering today.
Matif wheat gapped higher on the open, likely for the same reasons mentioned above. In any case, this is also supportive to US futures. This is also despite the fact that some rains hit the dry areas of northern Europe over the weekend.
There is still question as to how much Chinese wheat was damaged or downgraded due to the heavy rainfall a few weeks ago.
Russia’s wheat export tax will reportedly be reduced from 2,613 rubles (per ton) to 2,473 rubles, according to their agriculture ministry.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading sharply lower after weather models overnight shifted to push rain into Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana over the weekend.
Both the 6–10-day forecast, and 8-14 day are now showing above average precipitation, as well as normal temperatures, which would bring milder and wetter conditions into July.
While corn is down significantly, it did find support at the 200-day moving average and bounced off of it to a few cents higher.
Between June and July in 2012, the USDA lowered corn yield by 20 bu. and if it were to happen this year, there are concerns that it would put yield below 170 and take nearly 1 billion bushels from this year’s production.
Soybeans are trading lower with losses primarily in the deferred contracts as soybean meal falls over 4% in the Dec contract, but soybean oil recovers slightly despite losses in crude oil.
New crop soybeans have fallen over 72 cents in the past two days from Wednesday’s high after funds began profit taking and weather forecasts have changed to be wetter over the next two weeks.
Palm oil rose by 1.74% today, which has given some support to soybean oil after its sharp selloff due to the EPA biofuel mandate.
The weekly drought monitor has shown that 57% of the soybean crop is now considered to be in drought, and in 2012, that number was 43% this time of year, but new forecasts are showing more promise for rain in July.
Wheat has been following movements in corn and, therefore, is lower today as wetter forecasts pressure corn futures.
The Russian wheat crop has also been cut by 1.2 mmt for 2023 due to dry conditions in main growing regions and poor soil moisture.
India’s wheat output for 2023 is at least 10% lower than the government’s estimate, which has caused a sharp increase in local prices over the past 2 months.
It is now appearing very unlikely that Russia will renew the Black Sea grain deal on July 18 unless their demands are met. Recently, news out of the Black Sea region has not had much influence on the markets.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower today due to profit taking and an updated 7-day weather forecast that shows increased chances of rain in Iowa.
The recent drop in corn conditions over the past three weeks will likely force the USDA to lower yields on the July WASDE report and therefore, ending stocks.
Exports have been stale as US competitiveness weakens due to high prices, especially as Brazil is slated to harvest a big second crop corn.
Today’s drought monitor is expected to show drought expanding even more, and crop conditions haven’t been this poor since the drought year of 1988.
Soybeans are under pressure today as both soy products fall sharply driven by soybean oil after yesterday’s EPA announcement. All three soy products have expanded limits after soybean oil closed limit down.
The new RFS mandates for 2024 and 2025 show that we would have less soybean processing demand for soybean oil to be used in renewable diesel production.
Argentina has become the second largest buyer of Brazilian soy products this year behind China after their drought severely impacted their crop, which they need to meet crush expectations.
Additional pressure has come from the Federal Reserve indicating that further rate hikes would be likely this year.
Wheat has been trading either side of unchanged so far this morning, but is currently lower, along with both corn and soybeans.
The Russian wheat crop has also been cut by 1.2 mmt for 2023 due to dry conditions in main growing regions and poor soil moisture.
India’s wheat output for 2023 is at least 10% lower than the government’s estimate, which has caused a sharp increase in local prices over the past two months.
Globally, wheat crops may be in trouble as conditions worsen in major wheat growing areas such as the US, Russia, Argentina, and China.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading significantly higher and has only faded slightly from this morning’s highs after yesterday’s crop progress showed continued deterioration of the crop.
December corn traded at its highest levels in 7 months earlier this morning after crop progress showed good to excellent ratings in corn falling to 55% from 61% last week, far worse than analyst expectations.
The 7-day forecast still looks dry for the I-states and conditions are reportedly the worst since 1988. The NOAA has indicated that 6-15 inches of rain would be needed to move out of drought in eastern Nebraska.
The subsoil moisture in Illinois was revealed to be 85% short to very short, which is 9 points higher than the drought year of 2012.
Soybeans are higher today with support from big gains in soybean meal, but lower soybean oil after the EPA’s biofuel mandate announcement showed lower requirements for the coming years.
Soybean good to excellent ratings fell to 54% from 59% last week and compared to 68% at this time a year ago. The poor to very poor rating for the crop also increased by 3 points to 12%.
The 10-day forecast is dry for the Corn Belt with temperatures higher than average, and Illinois and Michigan have subsoil moisture levels recorded at 83% and 89% respectively.
Soybean inspections were poor for last week at just 6.8 mb, which put total inspections down 4% from a year ago. Brazil is in control of the soybean market now, and their soy sales to China have increased by 40% from a year ago.
US winter wheat harvest is 15% complete vs 8% last week. However, this is behind the average of 20%, as rainfall in the southern Plains is delaying harvest.
Spring wheat was rated 51% good to excellent vs 60% last week (and 59% last year). Winter wheat condition was left unchanged from last week at 38% good to excellent.
Export inspections were delayed until after yesterday’s close. Wheat inspections of 8.7 mb brings total 23/24 inspections to 20 mb (which is down 44% from last year).
The US Dollar Index has moved lower for the day, which is offering some support to wheat, but exports are still a challenge as Russia continues to undercut the market with cheap wheat.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn gapped higher on last night’s open but faded after that as funds began taking profit and producers made cash sales, and Dec corn is sitting just slightly higher at midday.
Rain over the weekend was limited and spotty, but the southwestern Corn Belt had better chances and more coverage. The 5-day forecast shows very light rainfall for the I states.
Today’s Crop Progress report will be released at 3pm central and is expected to show worsening conditions. Last week’s good to excellent rating was 61% which was already worse than 2012 for that time of year.
July corn futures in Brazil fell yesterday by 1.7% despite areas of Parana that may have been hit by frost, and the crop overall appears to be doing well.
Soybeans gapped higher along with corn last night but then faded along with both soy products. The soy complex has since turned higher with July beans and soybean meal leading the way.
Rainfall over the weekend was spotty with Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana missing out on important rains, but soybeans are not in the danger zone yet and have plenty of time to wait for rains.
Some support is coming from Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s visit to China to meet with President Xi Jinping which apparently went well and soothed tensions.
The EPA is slated to make their announcement regarding renewable diesel mandates tomorrow which could have a big impact on profitability.
Wheat is mixed with Chicago and KC trading higher but Minn lower. Wheat growing areas have benefitted from better weather than corn and soybeans for the most part.
The winter wheat harvest was seen at 8% complete last Monday and is still underway, but recent rains may have slowed progress.
Spring wheat areas have been a bit drier and today’s Crop Progress report may show a decline in good to excellent ratings from last week.
Russia’s spring wheat areas and northern Europe remain in need of rains, while in Canada parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan received heavy rains over the weekend.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, June 19, in observance of Juneteenth
All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time
Corn
JUL ’23
631.25
8
DEC ’23
587.5
13
DEC ’24
533.5
3.25
Soybeans
JUL ’23
1464.25
36
NOV ’23
1337
44.75
NOV ’24
1228.75
10
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’23
687.5
26
SEP ’23
700.25
27.5
JUL ’24
733
22.5
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’23
845.5
32.75
SEP ’23
841.75
33
JUL ’24
812
33.5
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’23
851.75
19
SEP ’23
854.25
20.75
SEP ’24
812
21.75
S&P 500
SEP ’23
4476.25
5
Crude Oil
AUG ’23
71.12
0.31
Gold
AUG ’23
1972.2
1.5
Grain markets are sharply higher again at midday as the weather forecast looks to remain mostly dry for the corn belt, and funds appear to be bailing out of short positions.
Yesterday, December corn closed above the 100 day moving average for the first time since November. Currently it is above the 200 day moving average (which is at 5.84).
There is no longer a risk of frost in Brazil (for now), and there were no widespread issues for the crop, despite the recent cold temperatures.
July corn on Brazil’s Bovespa Exchange is trading around the equivalent of $4.84 per bushel. Export values are still cheaper compared to the US.
The EPA announcement on biofuel mandates is set for next week (after being rescheduled). There is some anticipation that it will be friendly to the soybean oil market.
Weather issues in Malaysia are supporting palm oil prices, which may be offering some support to soybean oil and soybeans as well.
The most recent drought monitor map shows worsening conditions in soybean growing regions, with 51% of the crop said to be in drought (vs 39% last week).
NOPA May crush came in at 177.9 mb. This was well above the trade’s anticipated 175.8 mb and was also a record for May.
July Chicago wheat is higher for the sixth out of the past seven days. Funds remain net short and are likely exiting positions, helping wheat to rally.
Paris milling wheat futures gapped higher and are currently trading about 6-7 Euros per ton above yesterday’s close.
This week, Russian export prices were said to hit a low of $230 per metric ton vs $240 last week. At these levels, they will continue to dominate on the export front. This does go against the recent reports that their government established a floor at $240.
The Black Sea grain deal is set to expire in mid July. At this point it seems unlikely that they will extend the deal again, but traders have heard that before.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, June 19, in observance of Juneteenth
All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time
Corn
JUL ’23
620
12.25
DEC ’23
566
16.75
DEC ’24
525.25
8
Soybeans
JUL ’23
1421.25
33
NOV ’23
1275.25
35.25
NOV ’24
1213
21.5
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’23
645
14.75
SEP ’23
655.75
14.5
JUL ’24
696.5
12.25
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’23
800
14.25
SEP ’23
796.5
14.25
JUL ’24
767.75
11.75
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’23
827
17.75
SEP ’23
826.75
19
SEP ’24
781.75
-3.5
S&P 500
SEP ’23
4447.75
29.25
Crude Oil
AUG ’23
70.2
1.74
Gold
AUG ’23
1965.5
-3.4
The USDA reported an increase of 10.8 mb of corn export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 0.8 mb for 23/24.
Both the European and American weather forecast models have a drier forecast over the next 10 days. If the pressure ridge breaks down, it should allow moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the Corn Belt, but weather should be dry for at least another week.
Chinese corn production still looks to be on track at 11.0 billion bushels. Also, on their Dalian Exchange, November corn is near one-year lows.
Brazil has not had reports of significant frost damage to their crop, despite the recent cold temperatures.
The USDA reported an increase of 17.6 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23, and an increase of 1.8 mb for 23/24.
The Rosario Grain Exchange reduced their estimate of the 22/23 Argentina soybean crop by 1 mmt (to 20.5 mmt).
July soybean oil closed above the 100 day moving average yesterday. This is the first time this has occurred in 2023.
Malaysian palm oil futures are higher for the third day in a row, giving a boost to soybean oil (and soybeans).
Today, the market will get NOPA crush data. Expectations are for May crush at 175.8 mb.
The USDA reported an increase of 6.1 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24.
There will be some rains in France and Germany, which is pressuring both Matif rapeseed and wheat futures.
Higher corn and soybeans are offering a boost to the wheat market. At midday, all three US wheat futures classes have double digit gains.
The Russian government reportedly set an export floor price for wheat at $240 per ton, for July – August.
Taiwan flour millers are reported to have purchased 56,000 mt of US milling wheat.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The EU weather model has turned a little bit more wet, offering some resistance to the grain complex. However, parts of Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, and Indiana still look mostly dry on that model.
At today’s FOMC meeting the Fed may raise interest rates by 25 basis points. There is some speculation that they will pause the rate increase, however, especially after CPI data showed some easing of inflation.
Yesterday, December corn rallied but found resistance at the 100-day moving average. Currently at midday it is trading below that average, which is around 5.56.
There is reportedly another frost risk for Brazil, but so far there is no indication of harm to their corn crop. They are still looking for record corn production at this time.
Soybean export premiums in Brazil continue to be on the decline. As long as they have enough supply, this may reduce the amount of US soybeans sold.
China may issue a stimulus package to help their economy. This offers some hope that their economy will improve and help commodity prices. It remains to be seen if this is just a “band-aid” to cover bigger issues, though.
July soybean oil gained 1.45 cents yesterday, with support from higher crude oil, as well as world vegetable oils.
July soybeans on China’s Dalian Exchange are around the equivalent of $15.45 per bushel (and near a 1-month high).
This year’s US winter wheat harvest may be one of the smallest in 50 years due to poor growing conditions in the southern Plains.
Dry conditions in western Canada’s wheat growing regions may get some relief with chances of rain for Alberta and Saskatchewan in the coming days.
Low Russian export prices are pressuring the wheat complex, and the EU is also exporting record amounts of wheat, offering resistance as well.
Soil moisture in Argentina is not optimal, and frost / freezing conditions over the next few days could slow germination for their winter wheat.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
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Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The USDA rated the corn crop 61% good to excellent (down 3% from last week).
The western corn belt has rain in the forecast later this week, but it is expected to remain scattered and spotty.
Brazil has a frost risk this week, but still looks like they will produce a record corn crop of 132 mmt.
December corn futures have gained roughly 70 cents since the May 18 low. The Dec contract did gap higher yesterday indicating market strength; however, that gap could be filled down the road.
As reported by CNBC, one vessel left Ukraine over the weekend, hauling 69,000 mt of corn to Spain.
The USDA rated the soybean crop 59% good to excellent (down 3% from last week). This is the worst rating for this time of year since 2013.
August palm oil futures are up 2.5%, lifting soybean oil, and providing support to soybean futures.
Tomorrow the EPA will announce biofuel mandates for 2023 – 2025. Depending upon what the ruling is, this could have a large impact on soybean oil and soybean demand as more plants come online.
Chinese soybean imports to date are ahead of last year, however there is still concern about what their demand will look like down the road if their economy does not pick up.
The USDA said 8% of the winter wheat crop is harvested (vs 9% average), and that crop is rated 38% good to excellent (up 2% from last week).
The USDA said 97% of the spring wheat crop is planted (in line with average) and is rated 60% good to excellent (down 4% from last week).
Though it is early, wheat inspections for 23/24 are only at 12 mb, which is down 50% from last year.
Russian FOB offers are now said to be as low as $235-$240 per metric ton. Russia is reportedly talking about lowering that floor to as little as $230. This is certain to keep pressure on the US export market.
India is expected not to export wheat this year despite a large crop (due to tight stocks).
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
