Corn is continuing to push higher with July leading the way after a poor showing last week that saw the July contract losing 30 cents on the week. Chinese cancellations and poor exports were to blame.
While Brazil is expected to have a record corn crop at 130 mmt, Argentina’s crop keeps looking worse, and while the USDA is still estimating production at 37 mmt, most analysts are projecting closer to 30 mmt.
With Chinese cancellations of US corn, the USDA will likely need to lower their yearly corn exports in the next WASDE. China’s corn imports from the US in April were under 54,000 mt which compares to 1.51 million mt a year ago.
There was an announced corn tender by Taiwan’s MFIG for 65,000 mt of optional corn.
Soybeans are moving sharply higher and are on track to recover all of the losses from Friday. Both soybean oil and meal are higher along with crude oil.
Palm oil was down 1.52% today, which put some early pressure on soybean oil, but both soy products have recovered as those markets were getting oversold.
China logged imports from Brazil that were down 16% from a year ago at just 5.4 mmt which causes some concern about China’s economy and their demand.
Brazil’s soybean crop is harvested and now Safras and Mercado raised their production estimates to 155.7 mmt vs the USDA’s 155 mmt.
Wheat is mixed today with Chicago and KC higher but Minn struggling. The Kansas HRW wheat tour results are supportive of prices.
The Kansas wheat tour is expecting the lowest production in 66 years, and issues at Ukraine’s largest port with Russians disrupting shipments are bullish factors today.
Another vessel of Polish wheat reportedly is headed to Florida and would be the third cargo imported from Europe by millers in Florida.
Russian wheat production is being estimated higher by Sov Econ to 88 mmt, up 1.2 mmt. Russian FOB values are extremely cheap and are said to be $250 mt into August.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Despite a lower soybean crop estimate, Argentina kept their corn crop production unchanged at 36 mmt.
The International Grain Council estimated the 23/24 corn crop at a near-record 1.2 billion metric tons.
China has 84 mb of US corn remaining on the books, meaning that more cancellations are possible.
The climate prediction center is forecasting drought improvement in the western US plains over the next 3 months.
July corn on Brazil’s Bovespa exchange is making new lows and trading around the equivalent of $4.49 per bushel.
Argentina lowered their soybean crop estimate to 21 mmt from 22.5 previously. The USDA is still using a number of 27 mmt.
Stochastics for both July and November soybeans indicate oversold conditions.
Soybean crush premium (based on July futures) is down 12 cents this week to $1.89 per bushel. This is the lowest number since last summer.
Crude oil is higher at midday, offering some support to the soybean oil market. Higher palm oil is also supportive.
Parts of the southwestern Plains, including parts of Texas and Oklahoma, will see some more beneficial rains.
The HRW crop tour came up with a yield of 30 bpa (vs a 5-year average of 45 bpa), and the lowest crop production estimate since 1963, at 178 mb.
Despite the Black Sea corridor extension, there are said to be 62 vessels waiting for inspection, which is a slow process.
Ukraine’s president is going to Japan to visit with the G7, to ask for support against Russia.
Russian wheat export FOB values hit a 22-month low, at $250 per metric ton.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The USDA reported net cancellations of 13.3 mb of 22/23 corn export sales, but an increase of 2.9 mb for 23/24.
Funds continue to add to net short positions, vs a long position at this time last year.
The US Midwest weather is mostly favorable and long-range forecasts do not indicate heat levels this summer that would cause the market to rally sharply.
China’s recent corn cancellations now total 43.5 mb.
The USDA reported an increase of 0.6 mb of 22/23 soybean export sales and an increase of 24.4 mb for 23/24.
Despite earlier weakness, soybeans are around neutral and as of this writing have had a wide daily trading range. July soybeans so far today are in about a 25-cent range.
NOPA stocks were higher than expected, which may put some pressure on soybean oil.
Palm oil is lower for the 4th day in a row and that could also weigh on soybean oil.
The USDA reported net cancellations of 1.5 mb of 22/23 wheat export sales, but an increase of 12.4 mb for 23/24.
The day 2 yield estimate on the HRW wheat crop tour came in at 27.5 bpa (vs 37 last year).
Rains in Kansas are offering some resistance to the wheat market, even though it may be too little too late for that crop. The moisture could be beneficial to spring planted crops though.
The Black Sea Grain Initiative has officially been extended for another 60 days.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
December corn hit a 1-year low yesterday, likely in anticipation of a record Brazil safrinha crop, as well as a larger US corn crop this fall.
US weather looks mostly favorable for planting, but North Dakota is still behind with only 5% of the crop planted.
Private exporters reported the cancellation of 272,000 mt of corn for delivery to China during the 22/23 marketing year.
North Dakota is said to only have 2% of the soybean crop planted, which could mean prevented acres in 2023.
July soybeans on China’s Dalian Exchange were down 2.3% yesterday, around the equivalent of $15.41 per bushel.
July soybean futures have filled the gap that was left on the chart back in late July of 2022 (from 13.55-3/4)
Brazilian soybean oil is now the world’s cheapest vegetable oil.
The Day 1 yield estimate on the HRW wheat crop tour was 29.8 bpa (this is the worst number since the tour began in 2003 – normal is around 45 bpa).
The last vessel left a Black Sea port Wednesday, as expiration of the corridor deal is upon us. However, some sources are reporting that Turkey has announced another extension.
JP Morgan has stated that a recession is certain, which could mean that commodity demand down the road is still a major concern.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The USDA said the corn crop is 65% planted, vs 59% average and 49% last week.
On Brazil’s Bovespa Exchange, July corn is near the lowest level in 2 years, indicating a good safrinha crop.
North Dakota corn is only 5% planted, but a warmer and drier forecast this week should help that pace pick up.
While CONAB’s estimate is 125.5 mmt of Brazilian corn production, the USDA is projecting a 130.0 mmt crop.
The USDA said the soybean crop is 49% planted, vs 36% average and 35% last year.
Brazil’s record soybean harvest is almost complete and if the US has a good growing season as well, there could be significant pressure on soybeans down the road.
Old crop US soybeans supplies will remain limited through the summer, reflected in the premium of July over November.
Competition from rapeseed oil and sunflower oil may be weighing on soybean oil.
The USDA rated the winter wheat crop at 29% good to excellent, unchanged from last week, and up 2% from this time last year.
The USDA said 40% of the spring wheat crop is planted vs 57% average and 24% last week.
There still has not been any agreement on the Black Sea grain export deal, which will expire on the 18th unless a resolution is reached.
The Kansas wheat crop is said to be rated 68% poor to very poor, and dismal conditions are likely to be confirmed by the Kansas wheat crop tour.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The lower HRW wheat crop could suggest higher corn feeding in the southwestern US.
Central Brazil is on the dry side, which raises some question about their safrinha crop.
With the May WASDE report out of the way, the market will likely now focus on weather. Currently, conditions in the Midwest are mostly favorable.
Heavy rains over the weekend in the northern Corn Belt caused some flooding issues and planting delays.
On Friday’s CFTC report, managed funds are still short more than 100,000 contracts (as of last Tuesday).
There is concern about Argentina’s economy with soaring inflation, and there is question as to whether or not they can ship the amount of meal that they do normally.
There is indication that some meal buyers may be shifting demand to the US, with export sales last week higher than expected.
The USDA estimate of 335 mb of US 23/24 soybean carryout would be the highest in 4 years.
The Rosario Exchange estimated Argentina’s soybean crop at 21.5 mmt, which is 5.5 mmt lower than the USDA on Friday’s WASDE report.
On Friday’s report the USDA estimated 1.66 bb of US wheat production, which was lower than expected. This number, if true, will mean the lowest three years of wheat production in 50 years.
So far there has been no new news on the Black Sea export deal and whether or not it will be renewed. The current deal is set to expire in just a few days.
The USDA projected Kansas winter wheat production at 191.4 mb, which would be the lowest number in over 50 years.
The El Nino pattern this year could lead to drought issues for Australia’s wheat crop.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower ahead of today’s WASDE report with Dec futures falling to a new low early this morning.
Expectations for today’s report are that the USDA will lower old crop corn export sales, but also that they will increase new crop corn ending stocks.
Brazil’s safrinha corn crop, which previously has looked very robust, is dealing with dryness in the South which may impact yields and production.
China has canceled a total of 32 mmt of US corn purchases in the past month as they look to South America for significantly cheaper prices.
Soybeans are trading lower along with soybean oil while soybean meal holds on to some slight gains. Crude oil remains slightly higher.
Brazil reportedly exported 943 thousand mt or soybeans to Argentina in January through April so that Argentina can meet their crushing expectations.
There were rumors yesterday that soybean meal sales for Argentina were switched to US origins, and that is potentially what has been supportive for meal.
CONAB has reported that 96% of the Brazilian soy harvest is now complete, and they are estimating production at 153.6 mmt. Friday’s WASDE report has guesses for Brazilian production at 155 mmt, up from the previous estimate.
Wheat is trading higher today ahead of the WASDE report which is expected to show lower winter wheat estimates than what the Dow Jones survey expected.
Most notably, the high-level meetings between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the UN ended yesterday with no resolution to the Black Sea grain deal in sight.
Winter wheat is rated 44% poor to very poor while the number 1 producer, Kansas, is rated a whopping 68% poor to very poor.
Friday’s WASDE report is expected to show old crop ending wheat stocks at 603 mb, up 5 mb from April due to smaller exports. The USDA will provide a production estimate as well which is projected to be 602 mb for all wheat.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower after poor export sales and continued bearish pressure from China’s sales cancellations earlier this week. China has now canceled over 31 mb of US corn purchases since April.
Export sales were not good and showed net sales of 257,300 mt for 22/23, which was down from the previous week but up 11% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 1,146,100 mt were down 33% from the previous week and 8% from the prior 4-week average.
The Brazilian crop is expected to be record large and likely between 123 and 125 mmt, but Brazil’s CONAB is now projecting 125.5 mmt.
Expectations for tomorrow’s WASDE are for a sharp jump in ending stocks for 23/24, with a carryout over 2 billion bushels. Old crop corn exports are expected to be lowered as well.
Soybeans began the day sharply lower with Nov making new lows, but the July and September contracts have rebounded and are now positive. Soybean meal is higher while soybean oil is lower. Crude oil has fallen over a dollar a barrel.
Export sales for soybeans were poor at 62,200 mt for 22/23, which was down 70% from the previous week and down 68% from the prior 4-week average. Exports were 411,000 mt and were down 27% from the previous week and 18% from the prior 4-week average.
The USDA confirmed a sale this morning of 132,000 tonnes of US soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations in 23/24.
Yesterday’s CPI data that showed slowing inflation was supportive as an easing of inflation will make the Fed less likely to increase interest rates. An easing of interest rate hikes typically moves the dollar lower, which makes US commodities cheaper relative to other countries.
The Rosario Exchange in Argentina is estimating their soy crop at just 21.5 mmt, down from 23 mmt at the previous estimate, and far below the USDA’s last estimate of 27 mmt. There have been some private analysts that are projecting production below 20 mmt.
Wheat is trading lower following very small export sales, falling Paris milling wheat futures, and cheap Russian wheat that continues to be sold on the market.
Export sales for wheat were 26,300 mt for 22/23, which was a marketing year low and was down 88% from the previous week and 86% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 204,000 mt were down 29% from the previous week and 24% from the prior 4-week average.
Heavy rain is falling in the Plains including some of the driest areas of the southwest. These rains will be too late for much of the HRW wheat crop but may improve yields in certain areas.
Today is the second day of high-level meetings between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the United Nations over the Black Sea grain deal, and a resolution may be announced this week.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
May and July corn are trading slightly higher with deferred contracts lower. CPI data was friendly today with inflation increasing 4.9%, less than the 5% estimate and the lowest annual pace since April 2021.
Forecasts are calling for a mixture of moisture and warmth throughout the next two weeks, which should hasten planting along and in good conditions.
Friday’s WASDE will most likely show a larger US crop and ending stocks number for 23/24. The average trade guess for the 23/24 carryout is 2094 mb.
The central Illinois corn basis is reported to be 70 over futures as end users deal with limited supply and unwillingness to sell, which explains the large premium May holds to later contracts.
Soybeans are trading slightly lower along with soybean oil, while soybean meal moves higher. The decline in crude oil today has not been supportive, as well as a decline in palm oil.
Chinese soybean imports for April were reportedly down 10% compared to a year ago at 266 mb. China’s May and June imports are expected to rise, however.
CONAB has reported that 96% of the Brazilian soy harvest is now complete, and they are estimating production at 153.6 mmt. Friday’s WASDE report has guesses for Brazilian production at 155 mmt, up from the previous estimate.
Trade guesses for Argentina’s soybean production in the WASDE report are at just 24 mmt, down 3 mmt from the previous estimate, but some estimates have that number even lower.
Wheat is mixed again today with Chicago down the most, slight losses for KC wheat, and slight gains for Minn wheat. Poor crop conditions in OK and KS have been supportive of KC wheat.
Traders are focused on the potential end of the Black Sea grain deal which expires on May 18. Inspections resumed yesterday for exports out of the Black Sea, but the countries have not come to an agreement yet.
Today begins high level meetings between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the United Nations over the Black Sea grain deal, and a resolution may be announced this week.
Friday’s WASDE report is expected to show old crop ending wheat stocks at 603 mb, up 5 mb from April due to smaller exports. The USDA will provide a production estimate as well which is projected to be 602 mb for all wheat.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading sharply lower following a Chinese cancellation of 10.7 mb of previously purchased US corn for 22/23. Brazilian corn remains cheaper than US offers enticing Chinese buyers.
Planting progress was faster than expected at 49% complete, above the average and above trade guesses. Illinois is 73% complete, Iowa at 70%, but Minnesota at only 38% and Indiana 36%.
The upcoming weather should allow a good seeding pace to continue with some intermittent rain, and Thursday and Friday widespread showers are expected.
Brazil’s forward sales of their second crop corn are behind the average pace at just 24.3%. The crop is currently estimated at 92.2 mmt and usually makes up 70 to 75% of Brazilian corn production.
Soybeans, along with soybean meal and oil, are all lower today under pressure from the faster than expected planting pace, lower crude oil, and a higher US dollar.
35% of the soybean crop is planted, which is 14 points higher than the 5-year average pace. Illinois is 66% complete, Iowa at 49%, but North Dakota and Minnesota lagging at 0% and 13% respectively.
Soybean oil is still under pressure, but palm oil has continued its rally for the fifth consecutive day. This should be supportive for soybean oil in the shorter term.
News that China’s April imports of soybeans is down 10% versus a year ago at just 7.26 mmt has been weighing on the market and makes it unclear if their economy is recovering as much as they have claimed.
Wheat is trading lower, led down by Chicago wheat with KC and Minn wheat only slightly lower. Pressure comes from a gap lower on Paris milling wheat futures.
Crop conditions continue to worsen for US winter wheat. The good to excellent rating improved by 1%, but the poor to very poor rating jumped 2% to 44%.
In Kansas, the wheat crop is rated just 11% good to excellent while the poor to very poor rating is at a whopping 68%, with Texas and Oklahoma not much better.
Russian state media said that high level meetings will take place on May 10-11 between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the UN, most likely to try to come to an agreement about the Black Sea corridor agreement.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
