Midday

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Parts of the central and southern Corn Belt should receive good rains over the next five days, bringing relief to some of the driest areas.
• FOB corn prices in Brazil are still cheaper than the US, keeping pressure on exports.
• About 30% of China’s corn is said to be in dry areas that could affect their production. This could lead to increased Chinese imports down the road, though where they source the beans from is another question.
• July corn on Brazil’s Bovespa Exchange is around the equivalent of $4.80 per bushel. This is near the lowest level in two years.

• Private exporters reported sales of 105,000 mt of soybean meal sold to unknown destinations for the 23/24 marketing year.
• Both soybean meal and oil are higher this morning, offering a boost to soybean futures. Palm oil is higher as well, providing some support too.
• CPI data this morning showed that inflation increased 0.2% in June, which was below expectations.
• China is increasing soybean imports from Brazil due to growing concerns about what US supply will look like. As of June 29, China has bought just 1.72 mmt of US soybeans (for 23/24) vs 7.77 mmt for the same time period last year.

• Spring wheat areas have a mostly dry forecast for the next 7 days, including the northern US Plains and the Canadian prairies.
• Russian drone attacks on the Odessa port in Ukraine led to some support in the wheat market yesterday. Reportedly, of the 20 drones sent, only 2 made it through Ukraine’s air defense system. In any case, this does not bode well for the extension of the export corridor that expires next week.
• The US Dollar Index is sharply lower this morning. Wheat does not seem to be responding much, but this could have a bigger impact on exports down the road if the USD continues to decline.
• Japan is tendering for 123,770 mt of food-quality wheat from the US, Canada, and Australia.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• The USDA rated the corn crop at 55% good to excellent (up 4% from last week). Despite the increase, this is still the worst rating for this time of year since 2012.
• The average pre-report estimate for US corn production is 15.149 bb, with a yield of 175.8 bpa.
• Tomorrow’s report may reflect a boost in Brazil corn production, with traders looking for a crop of 132.8 mmt.
• December corn is building technical support around the $4.90-$5.00 level, but the improving crop conditions could limit upside potential.
• On tomorrow’s report, 2023 corn carryout is expected to come in around 2.2 bb.

• The USDA rated the soybean crop at 51% good to excellent (up 1% from last week). Like corn, this is the poorest rating for this time period since 2012.
• The average pre-report estimate for US soybean production is 4.250 bb, with a yield of 51.4 bpa.
• Yesterday’s close in soybean oil was the highest so far this year, likely due to influence from palm oil as well as anticipated demand for biofuels.
• Over the next 10 days, Minnesota, the Dakotas, Wisconsin, and northern Iowa are all expected to be mostly dry.
• Tomorrow’s report is expected to show a drop in 2023 soybean carryout to around 200 mb.

• The USDA said only 46% of the winter wheat crop has been harvested (vs 59% average). Winter wheat condition was unchanged at 40% good to excellent.
• The USDA rated the spring wheat crop at 47% good to excellent (down 1% from last week)
• Spring wheat areas in the northern US remain in need of moisture, but not much is expected this week. 
• Reportedly, interior Russian wheat prices have rallied, but they are still offering wheat for export at $235-$240 per metric ton FOB.
• According to CONAB, 79.6% of Brazil’s wheat crop has been planted as of July 1st.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Correction to morning comments – a reduction in corn acres was inadvertently mentioned. On the June 30^th report, corn acres were increased  by roughly 2 million.
• The weather forecast for the next 10 days is drier for much of the western Corn Belt, but there could be showers farther to the East (including central Illinois).
• Given the weather so far, this growing season, many believe that the USDA could reduce their corn yield estimate on this Wednesday’s WASDE report.
• China is said to be experiencing dryness and elevated temperatures, which could reduce their crops.
• July corn on Brazil’s Bovespa exchange is near the equivalent of $4.64 per bushel, keeping pressure on US exports.

• Soybeans are sharply higher this morning, possibly in anticipation of friendly data on Wednesday’s USDA report. Traders expect 23/24 carryout to fall near to 200 mb.
• Both soybean oil and palm oil are higher, offering support to soybeans. Bean oil may be rallying due to the anticipated increase in biofuel demand, while palm oil saw lower production and higher exports in June.
• Crop conditions may be improving due to recent rain in eastern areas, including central Illinois, and parts of Nebraska and Indiana.
• Funds remain net long soybeans, meal, and oil as of July 3^rd.

• Canda is seeing drier than normal conditions that will likely impact the spring wheat crop. Globally, there could be lower production in Russia and northern China as well.
• Wheat has traded both sides of steady so far today, but weakness may stem from lower Matif futures. Paris milling wheat is on track for what will be the third lower close in a row.  
• Expiration of the Black Sea Grain Initiative is next week. There is still much uncertainty of what will happen, given the fact that Russia has said they see no reason for an extension, but Turkey is trying to encourage an agreement.
• As of July 3^rd, managed funds remain net short 56,000 contracts of Chicago wheat.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• The USDA reported an increase of 9.9 mb of corn export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 16.5 mb for 23/24.
• Private exporters reported sales of 180,000 tons of US corn sold to Mexico.
• The 6-10 day forecast has some decent rain for parts of the west-central Corn Belt. The 8-14 day map has that weather shifting more to the East, into the Tennessee / Ohio river valley.
• Ethanol data yesterday showed higher production, lower stocks, and improved margins (due to lower corn prices).
• Next week’s WASDE report on July 12^th is likely to show a reduction in the corn yield estimate. The question is how much of an impact this will have given the higher acreage estimate last week.

• The USDA reported an increase of 6.9 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 21.8 mb of 23/24.
• Soybean meal is lower this morning – a lower close would mark the fourth day in a row. This is putting pressure on soybean futures. Palm oil futures are trending lower as well, not helping the situation.  
• About 60% of the US soybean crop is still said to be experiencing drought, despite the drought monitor showing some slight improvements.
• September soybeans on China’s Dalian exchange are trading around the equivalent of $17.04 per bushel.

• The USDA reported an increase of 14.9 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and a decrease of 0.1 mb of 24/25.
• More rain for the southern Plains will slow HRW wheat harvest, which is already well behind the average pace. However, slow export demand means that the market will likely not respond much to this.
• Despite weakness in the wheat market, ending stocks are at the lowest level in 16 years, which should provide some support.
• French wheat harvest is said to be 10% complete with better than expected yields so far.  
• The presidents of both Ukraine and Turkey will be meeting to discuss an extension of the Black Sea grain deal. This is despite Russia’s recent statements that they will not extend the corridor again.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading higher at midday as weather forecasts are becoming questionable and the drought monitor is not showing as much relief as had been hoped after recent rains.
• The northern Corn Belt is expected to receive less rainfall than hoped over the next 7 days, but the southern half of the Corn Belt is forecast to receive beneficial rains.
• National soil moisture remains an issue with 48% short to very short. Missouri is at 83%, Wisconsin at 71%, and Illinois and Michigan both at 67%.
• Brazil has reportedly harvested 20% of their second crop corn and based on yield data, analysts raised production estimates again.

• Soybeans are trading lower today, along with both soybean meal and oil after futures became a bit too overbought, and funds are likely taking a breather.
• Brazilian FOB offers are now at over a dollar discount to US values and will be there for the next few months making export sales even more difficult for the US.
• Brazil’s export group, ANEC, reported that June soy exports rose to 9.44 mmt, which compares with 7 mmt in June of last year.
• The USDA’s forecast for 83.5 million acres of beans has kept prices elevated, and next week’s WASDE could add to the bullishness with a small ending stocks number.

• Wheat is still mixed with Chicago posting the most losses followed by KC, but Minn wheat is managing to stay slightly higher.
• Russia attacked the city of Lviv overnight and Ukrainian forces have said that Russia is making slow progress in taking back eastern Ukraine.
• Russia’s wheat crop estimates were raised by 2.5 mmt and are now at 85.7 mmt on good weather.
• The French 2023 soft wheat yield is seen at 5% above the 10-year average and was helped by good sowing conditions and frequent rains in early spring.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading lower this morning following rains over the Independence Day holiday and continued pressure from Friday’s NASS seeding report.
• The USDA said that the planting estimate for corn was 94.1 million acres which would increase ending stocks and has caused selling in corn futures.
• On Friday, crop progress was released showing the corn crop rated 51% good to excellent, up just one point from a week ago. Illinois, Iowa, and Indiana showed improvement from a week ago.
• Illinois crop ratings improved by 10 points to 36% good to excellent, but Missouri came in at just 23% and 37% of the crop poor to very poor. Missouri is expected to receive beneficial rains this week, which should help next week’s ratings.

• Soybeans are trading higher after Monday’s Crop Progress report, which showed conditions worsening, but Friday’s acreage report is still giving buying momentum with acres projected to be tight.
• August soybean oil closed at a new high for the year on Monday as demand picks up. Yesterday, both canola and rapeseed traded higher.
• Despite the recent beneficial rains in the driest areas of the Corn Belt, crop progress showed soybeans falling by 1% in the good to excellent rating and is now at 50%, the lowest rating for this time of year since 2012.
• In China, soybeans on the Dalian exchange showed September futures rising nearly 3% to $17.12 per bushel, which is a four-month high.

• Wheat is trading up this morning with KC leading the charge higher after crop progress results came in showing conditions worsening.
• On Monday, the USDA said that 37% of winter wheat was harvested, which is down from a five-year average of 46% for this time of year. Winter wheat good to excellent ratings were steady at 40%.
• Spring wheat good to excellent ratings slipped 2% to 48% good to excellent, and in North Dakota, ratings slipped from 49% to 40%.
• There is increased tension between Russia and Ukraine right now concerning the nuclear power plant with both countries accusing each other of plotting imminent attacks on the plant. This comes as it appears the Black Sea grain deal may not be renewed.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed
Tuesday, July 4, in observance of Independence Day

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn began higher in the overnight but has faded and is now relatively unchanged. Friday’s USDA report was bearish for corn after planted acres were forecast to be higher.
• Very beneficial rains fell over some of the driest areas of the Corn Belt this weekend, but there was also some hail and rain damage in some fields.
• Last week’s acreage number came in 2.1 million acres higher than in March which pressured futures, but the June 1 stocks number was lower than expected and down 155 mb from pre report estimates.
• This afternoon’s Crop Progress report will let traders know whether or not the recent rains were enough to help the crop turn around. Good to excellent ratings will likely increase.

• Soybeans are still riding the high from Friday’s very bullish USDA report but have faded slightly from overnight highs which hit the highest prices since February 24.
• Friday’s NASS stocks and seeding report showed that soybean stocks were 16 mb below estimates and 172 mb below a year ago, but the huge bullish news was soybean acres falling 4 million below March intentions.
• Soy products in China followed the lead of US markets and moved higher with soybean oil on the Dalian exchange rising 6%.
• World veg oils have been moving significantly higher with Malaysian palm oil futures up 5.2% which is the highest level since March. US soybean oil futures are at their highest levels since December of last year.

• Wheat has bounced around today, opening lower but now trading significantly higher in the KC wheat contract, while Chicago is a bit higher and Minn. wheat lower.
• Friday’s USDA report showed wheat stocks to be lower than expected at 580 mb, 31 mb lower than expectations and what would be the lowest in 16 years.
• The EU is weighing concessions to a Russian bank over the Black Sea grain deal in hopes that Russia will agree to extend the deal.
• Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back a big chunk of their short position. They bought back 31,966 contracts, reducing their net short position to 52,168 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed
Tuesday, July 4, in observance of Independence Day

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• It is estimated that 70% of the US corn crop remains in drought. This is up from last week at 64%.
• The storm system yesterday brought reports of hail and wind damage in several areas of the Midwest. The National Weather Service is officially calling this a derecho due to the strength of the winds over a widespread area.
• The seven-day forecast continues to show rain for a large part of the corn belt, including some of the driest areas that received rain yesterday.
• After the recent downtrend, corn futures are now at or near oversold levels on daily stochastics.
• According to CONAB, Brazil’s government is ready to buy 500,000 mt of corn in an effort to rebuild food stocks.

• It is estimated that 63% of the US soybean crop is in drought. This is up from 57% last week.
• Private exporters reported sales of 132,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year.
• Soybean oil is more than 2 cents higher this morning, which may be fueled by a higher palm oil market. This in turn may be offering support to soybean futures which currently show double-digit gains for the day.
• After today’s Stock and Acreage reports, the next USDA report will be the WASDE on July 12. Due to worsening crop conditions for soybeans (and corn), there is a good chance they will lower yields at that time. The big question is whether or not that will be enough to offset poor export demand, with commitments to date behind the USDA’s goal.
• Argentina’s soybean harvest is now complete, and yields are said to be 45% behind the 5-year average, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.

• KC wheat is leading the US wheat complex higher this morning. Paris milling wheat futures are also higher for the second day in a row – France reported another decline in their crop condition to 81% good to excellent.
• South Korean flour mills are reported to have purchased 50,000 mt of US wheat overnight.
• Chicago wheat futures have downward momentum on both daily stochastics and the RSI. However, December Chicago wheat may be finding support near the 21-day moving average, which today is at 6.90-3/4.
• Not only is today a report day, but it is also month and quarter end. This could result in position squaring and increased volatility. The upcoming shortened Independence Day holiday week could have a similar result, especially if the weather forecast has any major changes this weekend.
• Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, told reporters that he sees no arguments to extend the Black Sea Grain Initiative. The current deal is set to expire on July 18.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• The USDA reported an increase of 5.5 mb of corn export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 4.9 mb for 23/24.
• Weather still appears to be the main driver of the grain complex. Rain is forecasted for some of the drier areas of the central Midwest. However, grain markets are mixed at midday, suggesting that they are finding some support at these lower levels.  
• Yesterday’s announced purchase of US corn by Mexico is supportive but does once again bring up the question of their impending GMO ban on imports down the road.
• A South Korean feed company is tendering for 130,000 mt of feed corn. Given the discount of South American exports vs US, as well as grain still flowing out of the Black Sea, it is unlikely to be sourced from here.

• The USDA reported an increase of 8.4 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 0.6 mb for 23/24.
• Soybean meal and oil are slightly higher at midday, which may be keeping soybean futures afloat. The Malaysian palm oil futures market is on holiday so there is no influence on US markets currently.
• Reportedly, South American soybean meal offers dropped $18 per ton, compared with the previous day. This is sure to keep pressure on the US export market, which is still not performing well.
• Right now, bulls and bears are battling between poor crop ratings, vs rain in the forecast and poor exports. Tomorrow’s reports could help provide some direction – the stocks number will likely be more of a factor and there is some anticipation that June 1 soybean stocks will be tighter than expected.  

• The USDA reported an increase of 5.7 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24.
• US wheat futures appear to be probing for a bottom this morning. Some support may be coming from higher Matif wheat futures, which have a gap above the market that may yet be filled.
• Offering resistance to US wheat is the fact that Canda revised their spring wheat seeding higher, to the largest acreage since 2001.
• The US Ag Attaché in Australia is estimating their wheat crop at 29 mmt. That is a reduction of about 10 mmt from last year in anticipation of the El Nino drought conditions.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Private exporters reported sales of 170,706 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico, with 21,340 mt for delivery during the 22/23 marketing year and 149,366 during 23/24.
• The weather forecast for some of the drier areas of the Midwest has relief over the next 10-14 days, and this is continuing to weigh on the grain complex.
• July corn futures are holding together better than new crop, suggesting that domestic supply is still tight for old crop.
• On Friday, traders will receive the quarterly stocks and acreage reports. The average pre-report estimate for Friday’s data has corn acreage at 91.809 million vs 91.996 in March. The stocks number is expected to come in at 4,261 mb compared to 7,401 in March.

• For the month of June, soybean oil has rallied from about 45 cents to 60 cents per pound. But this morning both meal and oil are down, which could account for the sharp decline in soybean futures.
• The market seems more focused on the rain forecast and drop in export demand, compared to the reduction in crop ratings for soybeans (and corn too).
• ABIOVE, which is Brazil’s oilseed group, increased their estimate of Brazilian soy exports by 1.3 mmt to a record 97.3 mmt.
• On Friday, the trade is looking for soybean acres at 87.660 million, vs 87.505 in March. The stocks number for soybeans is anticipated to be 808 mb vs 1,685 in March.

• Over the past week, 2 cargoes of wheat (and 5 cargoes of corn) left Ukrainian ports headed for Europe and China.
• Winter wheat harvest continues but remains well behind the average pace. With more rain on the way, it may delay harvest even further. However, the moisture should improve spring wheat conditions in the northern US.
• The Ukraine Grain Traders Union is reportedly estimating their wheat crop at 24.4 mmt (vs lower estimates ranging from 16-18 mmt)
• On Friday, traders are looking for all wheat acreage at 49.647 million acres, vs 49.855 in March. The stocks number for wheat is expected to come in at 611 mb, vs 946 in March.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

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