Corn is trading higher today with front month July leading the way up, while December is showing only slight gains. Crop progress was supportive, while wetter forecasts may limit upward movement.
64% of the corn crop was rated good to excellent which is a decline from last month and the lowest rating for this date since 2013. Illinois is a concern with only 50% of the crop rated good to excellent.
DTN’s 7-day forecast is calling for moderate rain ranging from Montana to the US Gulf, and beneficial amounts in Kansas and Missouri. A front is also expected to move through the US this weekend.
In Brazil, the second crop corn is off to a good start and could be a record crop, but there is a potential frost threat in June which could move through safrinha corn areas.
Soybeans began the day lower but have reversed higher, while soybean meal and oil have reversed positions as well, with meal now lower and oil higher despite a slip in crude oil.
62% of the soybean crop is rated good to excellent which is the lowest rating for that date since 2014 due to the dry weather. Iowa was rated at 70% while Illinois was rated at only 51%.
Brazil continues to dominate the export market with soybeans, but demand from China may be lagging as their economic growth is potentially slower than expected.
August palm oil fell by 1.9% after reports came out that Malaysia may end up with a surge in output of about 4.7%.
Wheat was an early leader in the grain complex after news of escalations in Ukraine were reported, but prices have backed up from their highs and are now lower on the day.
Ukraine claims that Russia blew up a major dam that could threaten hundreds of thousands of residents, the nuclear power plant, as well as major wheat-growing areas.
Yesterday, the USDA said that 82% of the winter wheat is headed and 4% harvested with 36% being rated good to excellent which was up 2% from the previous week.
On Friday, NASS will update its estimate of winter wheat production and the USDA will do the same in the WASDE. Traders are expecting the USDA to reduce export estimates for wheat for the 22/23 year.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is mixed at midday with front month July lower by two cents but the December contract 4 cents higher. Traders will be fixated on weather and dryness should drive prices higher.
The 6–10 day forecast is mostly dry in the Corn Belt with scattered showers, but European and GFS models show rain in the second half of June.
The USDA will release crop progress this afternoon which will likely show a decline in the corn crop ratings. Last week’s rating showed 69% good to excellent, but it may drop by a few points due to lack of rain.
Brazilian corn remains significantly cheaper with their FOB corn prices in June below the US July futures. On the Bovespa exchange, July corn is trading at the equivalent of $4.58 a bushel.
Soybeans are trading slightly lower, while soy products are mixed. Soybean meal is about 1% higher, while soybean oil is 1% lower despite gains in crude oil.
The lack of rains recently has helped support soybeans as it has with corn, but more substantial rains will likely fall in the second half of this month, and soybeans are able to deal with the temporary dryness a bit better than corn.
Brazil is said to have harvested 5.7 billion bushels of soybeans, which would be the most on record for a single country. Additionally, they are said to have exported 15.1 mmt in May, which is 40% above last year.
According to the USDA, about 28% of US soybean production areas are in drought as of May 30.
All three wheat contracts are trading higher this morning despite the fact that both corn and soybeans turned around and are now trading lower on the day.
There is concern that the world wheat supply will be much tighter than anticipated, and traders will get an idea of that when the WASDE report is released this Friday.
The Crop Progress report today will give an indication if the recent rains in HRW wheat areas were enough to improve crop ratings. Last week’s ratings pegged US winter wheat’s good to excellent rating at 34%.
The wet weather has subsided for now in China’s wheat growing regions. However, the recent heavy rains could cause quality reductions, or even crop loss.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The USDA reported an increase of 7.4 mb of corn export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 12.3 mb for 23/24.
According to the USDA, about 34% of US corn production areas are in drought as of May 30th.
Today’s weather forecast is mostly dry for the next 10 days in the Midwest, but the western Plains look like they will have better chances for rain. In fact, there are flash flood warnings around the Texas panhandle.
July corn is seeing more price pressure vs new crop. This is likely due to the start of Brazil’s safrinha crop harvest and the fact that their prices are lower than the US.
The USDA reported an increase of 4.5 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 11.1 mb for 23/24.
According to the USDA, about 28% of US soybean production areas are in drought as of May 30th.
The NASS Crush report showed 187 mb of US soybeans were crushed in April. In addition, soybean oil stocks at the end of April were up 3% from (vs last year) and meal stocks were up 28% for the same time frame.
Brazil is said to have harvested 5.7 billion bushels of soybeans, which would be the most on record for a single country. Additionally, they are said to have exported 15.1 mmt in May, which is 40% above last year.
The USDA reported net cancellations of 7.7 mb of wheat export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 17.1 mb for 23/24.
According to Ukrainian officials, Russia is reportedly refusing to register Ukrainian grain vessels. This is not the first time this news has surfaced, but it signifies that there is still much tension between the two nations, even after the Black Sea deal was last extended.
The wet weather has subsided for now in China’s wheat growing regions. However, the recent heavy rains could cause quality reductions, or even crop loss.
As of the latest Commitments of Traders report, funds are said to be short 605 mb of SRW wheat. For reference, the USDA is estimating US production of that crop at 406 mb in 2023.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Yesterday’s closes in grains were well off of the daily lows, and prices are higher at midday today. This signals support at these lower levels.
The debt ceiling deal was passed in the US House and is now moving onto the Senate, potentially offering some support to commodities.
July corn on Brazil’s Bovespa Exchange was lower again, around the equivalent of $4.45 per bushel. This is likely in anticipation of a record safrinha crop and is close to the lowest level in two years.
Sales of corn by Argentina’s farmers total 12.3 mmt to date, compared with 25.8 mmt at this time last year.
On China’s Dalian Exchange, July soybeans hit a new low – the equivalent of $14.47 per bushel. This takes out the previous close of $14.53 (equivalent).
Soybean meal has been trending lower, but is sharply higher at midday – this is supporting soybean futures.
Crude oil has recently been under pressure and is currently below $70 per barrel. This is likely on concern about global economics, especially with China’s economy said to be slowing. This also has been pressuring soybean oil, but both commodities are higher at midday today.
Chinese crush margins are turning negative, which could lead to a slowdown in future purchases of soybeans.
The western prairies in Canada have recently seen beneficial rains to help their wheat crop, and over the next week or so there will be widespread rain in Saskatchewan and western Alberta.
Spain is experiencing drought, but elsewhere in Europe and the Black Sea, wheat crop conditions are favorable. Some of Russia’s spring wheat areas remain dry, however.
Recent heavy rains in China’s wheat growing regions could reduce quality of that crop. Therefore, they may use more wheat for feed.
This morning, there were flash flood warnings in the Texas panhandle area. The wheat crop in this area was already struggling and this may further complicate the problems there.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The USDA said 92% of the corn crop is planted vs 84% on average. The crop was also rated 69% good to excellent.
In the face of the national 69% GTE rating, areas of the central and eastern Corn Belt will need more rain.
The December corn daily futures chart is possibly forming the right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulders pattern. If it solidifies, it could point to a price recovery.
July corn on Brazil’s Bovespa Exchange is trading around the equivalent of $4.54 per bushel.
The USDA said 83% of the soybean crop is planted vs 65% average.
July soybeans on China’s Dalian Exchange hit the lowest level in two years due to concerns about demand. That contract is now around the equivalent of $14.53 per bushel.
July soybean meal hit the lowest level since August of 2022.
Palm oil is lower due to talk of better production, India possibly increasing their import duty, and potentially lower China demand.
The USDA rated the winter wheat crop at 34% good to excellent vs 31% last week.
The USDA said the spring wheat crop is 85% planted vs 86% average.
Kansas winter wheat is still struggling, even with recent rains. Their crop is rated 69% poor to very poor.
The US Dollar Index continues to trend higher, which may limit upside potential for wheat as it makes it more expensive for importing countries.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Yesterday the American weather model put more rains into the Midwest (especially the 8-14 day timeframe). This may be weighing on grain futures this morning.
Reportedly, an agreement has been reached to raise the US debt ceiling, but now that deal must be passed by congress.
July corn on Brazil’s Bovespa Exchange is around the equivalent of $4.94 per bushel.
According to AgRural, their projection of Brazil’s total corn production has been raised to 127.4 mmt (vs 125.1 mmt previously).
Based on July futures, board crush is the lowest since June of 2022.
Prop 12 in California will start July 1. These new rules affect the treatment / living conditions of hogs but could also affect demand for soybean meal.
China’s economy is continuing to slow down, increasing concerns that they may not be able to import the same quantity of commodities as in years past.
July soybeans on China’s Dalian exchange were down 1.8% Tuesday, around the equivalent of $14.80 per bushel.
The wheat market may be concerned about lower demand for US wheat due to global financial issues. Limited cash availability in parts of north Africa and the middle east could mean reduced demand there.
It remains dry in northern Europe and parts of the Russian spring wheat areas.
In opposition to the El Nino pattern, Australia is starting to get some rains. This may alleviate some concern about drought for their upcoming wheat crop, though it is still early to make that determination.
Floods this weekend in the Texas Panhandle area certainly did not help the crop there. Their forecast this week also calls for moderate to heavy rain, causing more concern.
Despite Russia’s attack over the weekend on the Odesa port in Ukraine (which is protected by the agreement), wheat is sharply lower at midday today.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, May 29, 2023, in observance of Memorial Day
All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time
Corn
JUL ’23
601.75
11
DEC ’23
532
16
DEC ’24
512.5
10.5
Soybeans
JUL ’23
1341
17
NOV ’23
1190.75
18.5
NOV ’24
1163
14
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’23
613.75
9.5
SEP ’23
627.5
10.25
JUL ’24
669.75
8.5
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’23
822.5
4.5
SEP ’23
817
5.25
JUL ’24
761.5
8.25
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’23
815.25
9.75
SEP ’23
818.75
10.75
SEP ’24
782.75
8.5
S&P 500
JUN ’23
4199.25
39.5
Crude Oil
JUL ’23
72.5
0.67
Gold
AUG ’23
1959.8
-2.5
Corn is trading higher today and is on track for a positive close on the week in both the July and Dec contracts.
Prices have rallied 50 cents from their lows seven days ago as concerning dry weather forecasts are projected over the Corn Belt for the next 10 days.
There is concern over the Chinese economy, with growth expectations being revised lower there according to Bloomberg, and demand for corn may lessen as they opt to feed wheat instead.
Helping the markets are talks about a resolution to the debt ceiling that may be reached by Monday.
Soybeans, soybean oil, and meal are all trading higher today due to the dry forecast. Lower soybean meal has been a big bearish influence.
Palm oil is up for the third consecutive day as the potential El Nino pattern could lead to drought conditions in Malaysia and Indonesia this year.
Argentina’s soy crop is reportedly 78% harvested and local exchanges are estimating production at just 21 mmt, 6 mmt lower than the most recent USDA estimate.
Argentina typically exports 14% of their soy crop, but crush is expected to be down 5.4 mmt in the coming year due to the extreme drought conditions.
All three wheat products are trading higher today with the poor HRW wheat crop, as well as weather concerns in Russia.
Russia’s spring wheat areas are forecast to be hot and dry, and ship traffic in the Black Sea is restricted with Russia intentionally slowing things down.
There has been confirmation that US mills have imported wheat supplies from both Poland and Germany into the southwest and Texas Gulf.
Paris milling wheat is higher, and French wheat is rated 93% good to excellent despite reports of heat and dryness there. Russia continues to dominate the export market with their cheap offers.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed Monday, May 29, 2023, in observance of Memorial Day
All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time
Corn
JUL ’23
591.25
4
DEC ’23
520.75
0.75
DEC ’24
505.5
0.25
Soybeans
JUL ’23
1327
2.5
NOV ’23
1181.5
-3.5
NOV ’24
1157.75
-1.75
Chicago Wheat
JUL ’23
614
7.75
SEP ’23
626.5
7.5
JUL ’24
666.75
6.5
K.C. Wheat
JUL ’23
827.5
15.25
SEP ’23
819.75
12
JUL ’24
762
8.75
Mpls Wheat
JUL ’23
809.5
10.5
SEP ’23
812.5
11
SEP ’24
764.75
-9.5
S&P 500
JUN ’23
4152.5
26.5
Crude Oil
JUL ’23
72.31
-2.03
Gold
AUG ’23
1965.5
-17.6
Corn is drifting slightly lower after another week of poor export sales and concern over outside markets as the debt ceiling issue remains unresolved and the deadline fast approaching.
Forecasts for the Midwest are calling for warm and dry conditions over the next two to three weeks, but some European models are calling for scattered showers, which may help cool temperatures down.
Export sales for the week ending May 18 showed net sales cancellations of 3.0 mb, which was down 78% from the previous week. There was an increase of 2.1 mb for 23/24, and shipments were 59.2 mb, above the 41.1 mb needed each week.
There is concern over the Chinese economy, with growth expectations being revised lower there according to Bloomberg, and demand for corn may lessen as they opt to feed wheat instead.
Soybeans are lower after poor export sales and another drop in soybean meal that has taken July futures to their lowest levels since November 2022.
As the dollar rises today, crude oil has fallen over two dollars a barrel and is trading just above 72 dollars a barrel. This has not affected the soybean oil market, which is trading higher with higher palm oil.
The USDA reported an increase of 4.2 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23, and last week’s export shipments of 10.6 mb were below the 13.0 mb needed each week to meet USDA expectations.
Argentina’s soy crop is reportedly 78% harvested and local exchanges are estimating production at just 21 mmt, 6 mmt lower than the most recent USDA estimate.
All three wheat products are trading higher today despite net sales reductions in the export sales report. The gridlock in the Black Sea may be supporting prices.
The USDA reported net sales cancellations of 1.7 mb of wheat export sales for 22/23, but an increase of 9.0 mb for 23/24. Last week’s export shipments of 14.2 mb were far below the 39.2 mb needed each week to meet USDA expectations.
There has been confirmation that US mills have imported wheat supplies from both Poland and Germany into the southwest and Texas Gulf.
In Argentina, rain has begun to fall, which is too late to be beneficial to their corn and bean crops and is delaying that harvest, but will be beneficial for soil moisture in the upcoming wheat planting.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher again today and is on track for the third consecutive close. There has been no real bullish fundamental news, so the rally seems technical and seasonal.
Trade is focused on the financial situation regarding the debt ceiling and when an agreement will be reached. This has negatively affected the equity markets and the deadline is this Friday.
China has been purchasing more wheat and less corn and has been sourcing primarily from Australia. This adds concerns to more sales cancellations.
Both the northern and southern Plains are forecast to receive rains which are much needed, but dryness is still expected for the heart of the Corn Belt in the short term.
Soybeans began the day lower, but are trading higher now, along with soybean meal and oil. A jump in crude oil by over a dollar a barrel has been supportive.
Commercial crude inventories fell by 12.5 million barrels for the week ending May 19. This comes as Saudi Arabia is signaling that production cuts may be incoming, driving up crude prices and helping the soy complex.
July soybean meal is making new lows as Brazil exports soybeans into Argentina, so that they can offset their crush facilities form their poor crop.
Soymeal has been under pressure with China saying they will use less soymeal and corn for feed and more wheat, and soybean oil has found no support from palm oil, which continues to fall.
Wheat is trading lower today after a pop yesterday caused by headlines that Russia was blocking ship traffic to Ukraine’s largest port and is slowing other traffic in the Black Sea.
Chinese wheat imports for the first four months of the year are 6 mmt, which is up 61% from a year ago, with the primary seller being Australia. This comes as China looks to utilize more wheat instead of corn and soy for feed.
There have been reports of wheat being imported into the US from Europe to take advantage of the cheaper prices, which has added to bearish sentiment.
Rain continues to fall in North Dakota and the northern Plains, which is delaying plantings, and rains in the southern Plains threaten wheat quality in early harvest.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is higher again today after resistance was found at the 5-dollar mark in December, causing funds to cover some shorts and spur buying.
Planting progress jumped ahead again to 81% complete vs 65% last week. Emergence is now at 52% compared to 30% last week.
There is some talk of a “flash drought” in the heart of the Corn Belt that is forecasting lack of rain for the next 10 days.
July corn in Brazil is trading lower today and is at the equivalent of $4.58 a bushel on the Bovespa exchange as they continue receiving good moisture.
Soybeans are trading lower along with both soybean meal and oil after yesterday’s rally. Soybean oil is leading the way lower despite higher crude prices as palm oil prices fall.
The USDA reported that 66% of the soybean crop has been planted and 36% has emerged. Planting is 10 percentage points ahead of where it was in 2016, which was the year the US recorded the highest soybean yield.
Illinois and Iowa are leading the way at 85% and 84% planted, while North Dakota is only 20% planted due to wet field conditions.
The anticipation of the US having a record crop, along with Brazil already recording a record crop, is pressuring soy prices heavily and will likely result in a large jump in ending stocks.
Wheat is trading higher on tensions between Russia and Ukraine that may disrupt trade further along with the poor wheat crop in Kansas.
Crop progress reported that 61% of winter wheat was headed, which is on par with its usual pace, and 31% is rated good to excellent, which was a 2% improvement from last week. In Kansas, the poor to very poor rating increased by 1% to 69%.
There have been reports of wheat being imported into the US from Europe to take advantage of the cheaper prices which has added to bearish sentiment.
The largest port in Ukraine, Pivdennyi, has not been receiving vessels as Russia has not been allowing it despite the extension of the agreement. It is not yet known why, but it is disrupting exports.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
