Michigan and Wisconsin are expected to get decent rains over the next few days, but much less is expected for the remainder of the Midwest. The western Corn Belt is also expected to be hot.
Weakness in commodities this morning may be tied to anticipation of another interest rate increase by the Fed this afternoon.
Several crop scouts are lowering their estimates of corn yield to around 173-174 bpa.
Last year, China imported 11 mmt of corn from Ukraine. Given recent circumstances, they might now need to look for alternative sources.
Private exporters reported two sales of soybeans for delivery to unknown during the 23/24 marketing year. One sale was for 229,000 mt and the other was 272,000 mt.
India is said to be considering dropping the import duty on edible vegetable oils.
There is talk that Chinese domestic crush margins on soybeans are improving.
New crop US soybean meal exports are up 32% from last year, while Argentina meal exports are down 30%.
Day one of the spring wheat crop tour in North Dakota found a yield of 48 bpa. This compares with 48.9 bpa last year and an average of around 40 bpa.
Next week, Canada will receive rain, but it may be too late to offer much help to their spring wheat crop.
A lack of new attacks on Ukraine ports may have wheat on the defensive. However, it is being reported that Russia has planted sea mines and may consider attacks on civilian vessels in the Black Sea.
Russia is still the cheapest source of wheat globally, said to be $50 per ton less than Baltic or European offers.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The US corn crop was rated 57% good to excellent, the same as last week.
Temperatures will be hot this week in the western Corn Belt, but parts of the northcentral Midwest have chances for rain over the next five days or so.
The Fed is expected to issue another interest rate increase tomorrow afternoon, which may ultimately affect commodity prices, as well as renew concerns about recession.
Crude oil is higher at midday, and is at the highest level since April.
The US soybean crop was rated 54% good to excellent, down 1% from last week.
August soybean oil closed at 71.99 yesterday. This is the highest close in over a year.
India will reportedly import 46% more edible oils in July than in June, and are building supplies with exports of Ukrainian sunflower oil being cut off.
China’s purchase of US soybeans yesterday was the first by them since late June.
The US spring wheat crop was rated 49% good to excellent, down 2% from last week.
The US winter wheat harvest is 68% complete, vs 77% average.
Russia attacked grain warehouses and infrastructure at the port of Reni in Ukraine (near Romania). There is still much uncertainty as to how much grain they will be able to export at this point. Reportedly, 30 vessels have been stranded along the Danube river.
Despite their domestic wheat prices surging, Russia still is the cheapest source of wheat globally.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The nearby weather forecast for the Midwest looks dry with temperatures warmer than normal. Areas west of the Mississippi could see 95-100 degree temperatures, though it may be a little cooler to the east.
The next FOMC meeting is this week, and the Fed is expected to raise interest rates again by 25 basis points.
Escalation between Russia and Ukraine has prices sharply higher this morning.
Brazil is in the process of harvesting the safrinha crop, with the International Grains Council saying that 68% has been harvested in Mato Grosso.
The USDA announced a sale of 121,000 mt of soybean for delivery to China for the 23/24 marketing year.
Weather is also a factor for soybeans, and the warm dry temperatures will continue to stress the crop throughout much of the Midwest. There are better rain chances in the 6-10 day forecast, however.
Both soybean meal and oil are higher this morning, offering a boost to soybeans. Strong domestic demand for these products, as well as profitable crush margins, should continue to provide support.
October palm oil futures are also supportive; they are near the contract high and the highest level since November.
Wheat is near limit up after Russia attacked the Danube River locations in Ukraine. After the closure of the Black Sea deal, this was the outlet for their domestic exports, which could have allowed 2-3 mmt of grain per month to be transported out of the country on the river. Now that ability has been severely reduced or possibly eliminated.
On Friday, the word was that Turkey and the UN would try to broker a deal to re-open Ukraine exports. Given the new attacks and escalation, it does not seem likely Russia will allow that to happen.
Matif wheat is also sharply higher on the war news, with some contracts having gapped higher and approaching the 200-day moving average. Matif futures have not been above the 200-day moving average since November 2022.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower at midday but has come off its early morning lows. The 30-day weather forecast has shown more rain chances and lower temperatures into August for the Corn Belt.
The US Seasonal Drought Outlook has been changed to expect significant drought removal from the central Corn Belt after the recent beneficial rains.
Brazil’s second crop corn is now seen at a record 54 mmt which would be up 16% from last season and secures Brazil’s new spot as the top corn exporter.
The 7-day forecast is expected to be rough with little rain expected throughout the Corn Belt and higher-than-normal temperatures.
Soybeans are mixed at midday and have come back from early morning lows. Front months August and September are trading higher while the deferred months are lower. Front month meal is higher, while those deferred contracts are lower, and soybean oil is higher.
Yesterday, NOAA released their 30-day forecast that shows a friendlier forecast for soybeans into August. This may have put the brakes on this rally a bit alongside overbought technicals.
The withdrawal of Russia from the grain deal has had impacts on soybean prices due to Ukraine’s exports of sunflower oil and meal, and with those exports halted, other world veg oils have moved higher. October palm oil was up 3.9% today and soybean oil is following suit.
Palm oil futures have rallied nearly 23% since the lows made in late May, and soybean oil is up about 50% in that same time, so a correction is not surprising.
Wheat is trading lower this morning with most of the losses in Chicago followed by KC despite a fresh attack of farm storage buildings in the Odesa region of Ukraine by Russia.
As spring wheat harvest continues along and fresh supplies hit the market, it becomes harder for wheat to rally even with the war escalating in Ukraine.
Since the beginning of the Black Sea Grain Initiative on July 27, 2022, over 31.1 mmt of grains and veg oils have shipped from three Ukrainian ports to 46 countries.
The IGC raised global grain production and the stockpiles estimate with world grain production now seen at 2.297 billion tons, but wheat production itself has shrunk.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is lower around midday after trading higher in the overnight in response to a new attack last night by Russia on Ukraine’s port city of Odessa. This makes the third night in a row of attacks on Odesa with 60,000 tons of grain being destroyed yesterday.
Export sales for corn were poor last week with net sales of 9.3 mb for 22/23, which was down 49% from the previous week but up 6% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales for 23/24 were 19.4 mb, and exports of 15.1 mb were down 22% from the previous week.
Brazil’s second crop corn is now seen at a record 54 mmt which would be up 16% from last season and secures Brazil’s new spot as the top corn exporter.
The new monthly weather outlook has been released by NOAA and shows below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation for most of the Corn Belt.
Soybeans are trading lower along with soybean meal, while soybean oil is higher with support from crude oil. Overbought futures may be adding pressure along with new weather forecasts that show better conditions over the next month and into mid-August which is a crucial time for soybeans.
Net sales of soybeans were sluggish again with 4.7 mb for 22/23, which was up 58% from the previous week but down 43% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales for 23/24 were 27.9 mb, and exports of 8.8 mb were down 29% from the previous week and 15% from the prior 4-week average.
Thanks to Brazil’s record large crop, they have been the world’s leading seller and main supplier of China, whose soy imports from Brazil for June were up 31.6% from the previous month.
The withdrawal of Russia from the grain deal has had impacts on soybean prices due to Ukraine’s exports of sunflower oil and meal, and with those exports halted, other world veg oils have moved higher. October palm oil was up 3.9% today and soybean oil is following suit.
Wheat has traded all over the place so far today with prices higher overnight on the heels of another Russian attack on Odesa, but a few hours later prices plummeted, and now have stabilized around unchanged.
Russia has said that any vessels in the Black Sea region will now be assumed to be carrying military goods, so Ukraine will need to export their grains through other routes.
Since the beginning of the Black Sea Grain Initiative on July 27, 2022, over 31.1 mmt of grains and veg oils have shipped from three Ukrainian ports to 46 countries.
Technically, December wheat may have found resistance at the 200-day moving average at 7.60 because futures slightly exceeded that level before backing off lower.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher this afternoon but has faded significantly off its highs from early this morning which was led by a new Russian attack on the port city of Odessa in Ukraine.
Projections for ethanol production for the week ending July 14 is showing production higher than the previous week at 1.042 million b/d with the stockpile average estimate above a week ago.
The 10-day forecast for the Corn Belt is still showing dry conditions with temperatures turning the hottest of the season beginning this weekend. Minnesota received some light showers overnight.
Brazil continues to dominate export sales and is projected to continue this into the fall, but Brazilian FOB basis has increased between 60 and 65 cents per bushel in the last month making the US slightly more competitive.
Soybeans are continuing their trend higher again today but have slipped from earlier highs as corn has. Nov beans made new highs for the year today, but soybean meal has slipped lower and soybean oil is posting gains of nearly 3%.
The NWS will likely release their 30 and 90-day forecasts this week which the soy complex will watch closely for an idea on moisture and temperature into the pod fill season.
Forecasts are predicting that August will begin with higher-than-normal temperatures in the western Corn Belt, so rainfall will be important to shore up the poor current soil moisture levels.
NOPA June soybean crush fell to a 9-month low of 165.023 million bushels, down from the 177.915 mb processed in May.
Wheat is trading higher at midday following attacks on Ukraine’s port of Odessa in the Black Sea by Russia, as well as poor crop conditions in the US.
Breaking news was just released that the Russian Defense Ministry will consider all ships traveling to Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea as potential carriers of military cargo.
This morning, Russia said that ships in the Black Sea would be “in danger”, but they have also said that they would be willing to come back to negotiate in 3 months if the UN makes good on Russian demands.
The UN is apparently “floating” ideas on how to get Ukrainian and Russian grain out to the rest of the world as the Black Sea is closed.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher today and is on track for the third higher close in the last four trading days. This comes after the withdrawal of Russia from the grain deal and despite an improvement in crop conditions.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed corn good to excellent ratings improving by 2 points to 57%. National corn pollination is now 47% complete with northern states entering their pollination phase.
The 8-to-14-day forecast remains dry and warm which could easily pose a threat to yield. Some rains are forecast to fall in the North while very scattered showers are expected in the Corn Belt over the next 7 days.
Yesterday’s corn export inspections were slow again with inspections totaling 14.3 mb for the week ending Thursday, July 13. Total inspections for 22/23 are now at 1.334 bb and down 33% from the previous year.
Soybeans are continuing their move higher and have taken out their more recent high from July 3 as soybean meal continues to rally on low Argentinian supply. Soybean oil is trading slightly higher.
Yesterday’s crop progress showed the soy crop improving more than the average trade guess with an increase of 4 points for a good to excellent rating of 55%. While an improvement, it is the second lowest rating since 2012, and only 20% of the crop are setting pods.
NOPA June soybean crush fell to a 9-month low of 165.023 million bushels, down from the 177.915 mb processed in May.
Chinese purchases of soybeans picked up last week, but they mainly sourced from Brazil and only bought small amounts from the US. There have been rumors that China has been buying more September and October beans from Brazil in the past week.
Wheat is trading higher at midday with KC posting the most gains and Chicago not far behind after Russia attacked Ukraine’s port of Odessa overnight in retaliation to the attack on the Crimean bridge.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed an increase in spring wheat’s good to excellent ratings by 4 points to 51%, but with the upcoming dry and warm forecast, crop conditions could easily drop back down.
Russia’s withdrawal from the grain deal, in addition to their attack on Odessa, has sent wheat prices moving higher globally with Russian wheat reportedly up 50 cents per bushel in the past two weeks.
Winter wheat harvest in the US is now 56% complete but continues to lag the average pace of 69%. Harvest in Kansas meanwhile saw a 12% jump from last week and is now 71% complete.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn has turned lower around midday, after news that Russia was withdrawing from the Ukrainian grain deal sent corn, soybeans, and wheat higher. Traders have grown tired of this back and forth, however, and prices are already slipping.
Russia exited the grain deal after an attack on the bridge connecting Russia to Crimea overnight, and now Ukraine will need to send exports through Europe and the Danube River.
Weather forecasts over the next 8 to 14 days have turned drier and warmer, which may add some bullishness to the market. 64% of the corn crop is still experiencing some form of drought.
Last week, China was an active buyer of Brazilian and Ukrainian corn which gave the impression that demand was picking up, but export sales for US corn have still been very sluggish due to higher prices.
As in corn, soybeans were higher to start the day but have slipped at midday and are now near lows of the day. Russia’s decision to exit the grain deal will have an impact on Ukraine’s exports of sunflower meal and oil which could impact soybean meal and oil in the US.
Palm oil exports jumped a whopping 19.3% in June and futures are higher as a result, which adds more bullish sentiment to soybean oil, especially after the grain deal announcement.
The NOPA crush report will be released later today, and traders are looking for a crush of 172 mb and soybean oil stocks to fall 1.780 billion pounds.
Chinese purchases of soybeans picked up last week, but they mainly sourced from Brazil and only bought small amounts from the US. There have been rumors that China has been buying more September and October beans from Brazil in the past week.
Wheat, which should have been the most helped by the withdrawal of Russia from the Ukrainian grain deal, is now trading lower. It appears that traders are tired of the back and forth and quickly went back to selling after the news broke.
Chicago wheat gapped higher on the open after the Russia news but just closed that gap and is sitting right at its 40 and 50-day moving average.
The US Dollar is trading at its lowest levels in over a year which should make the US more competitive regarding exports. Paris milling wheat futures were higher this morning for the third straight day, which is also supportive.
Weather for spring wheat is not looking great, and analysts have said that without substantial rains in the Canadian Prairies, Canadian production could slide another few million tons lower. North Dakota and Minnesota are also in need of rain.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
There is talk that many traders are in disbelief of the USDA report numbers. This may explain, at least in part, why grains are trying to rebound after a negative report.
The 8-14 day forecast shows warmer and drier than normal conditions across parts of the Midwest, which may also be offering some support to the grain market.
Recent weakness in the US dollar is supportive to com commodity prices. The CPI data showed an easing of inflation, and demand for food and fuel may increase.
About 64% of the US corn crop is still said to be experiencing drought conditions.
CONAB raised their estimate of Brazilian corn production to 127.8 mmt (vs 125.7 previously).
After a higher overnight trade, soybean futures are lower at midday. This could be the result of profit taking after yesterday’s recovery.
China has been an active buyer of Brazilian soybeans for May-July 2024. They have also purchased some from the US Pacific Northwest.
CONAB reduced their estimate of Brazil’s soybean production to 154.6 mmt (vs 155.7 previously).
The expectation for June NOPA soybean crush comes in at 170.568 mb. That would be down 4.1% from May, but that is expected due to seasonal downtime for maintenance and repairs. The actual NOPA data will be released on Monday.
About 57% of the US soybean crop is said to be experiencing drought conditions.
India is reportedly banning rice exports because of shortages. They normally export about 18 mmt of the world’s 55 mmt. This has led to some thought that they will need to import wheat, as it is the next food staple in line.
The forecast looks mostly dry for the Dakotas and Minnesota over the next couple weeks, which may affect spring wheat crop ratings. Spring wheat areas of Canada are also too dry.
The Black Sea Grain Initiative expires on Monday. If an agreement for an extension is not reached, world supplies could tighten. Russia has come out and said they are willing to extend the deal if they are let back into the SWIFT banking program.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The USDA reported an increase of 18.4 mb of corn export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 18.5 mb for 23/24.
CPI data yesterday is leading to some thoughts that the Fed may be nearing the end of the interest rate increases. This is also pressuring the US dollar and maybe putting some risk premium back into financial and commodity markets.
The western Corn Belt looks to be drier and warmer for the second week of the forecast.
The USDA’s increased estimate of Brazilian corn production, at 133 mmt (vs 132 previously), will likely limit upside for US futures. Brazil export values are also cheaper than US, pressuring the export market too.
The USDA reported an increase of 3.0 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 7.7 mb for 23/24.
Private exporters reported sales of 315,704 mt of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 23/24 marketing year.
Yesterday’s USDA estimate of new crop soybean carryout at 300 mb was higher than many anticipated.
Chinese soybean imports in June totaled 10.27 mmt; this is 24.5% above last year for the same timeframe.
The USDA reported an increase of 14.5 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24.
The USDA estimated 4.76 bb of global wheat ending stocks (excluding China). This is the lowest in 11 years.
The 8-14 day forecast is predicting below normal rainfall for spring wheat areas in the northern US plains. Canda is also dry, which may affect their canola and spring wheat production.
According to the Rosario Board of Trade, Argentina is expected to plant 5.4 million hectares of wheat, a 200,000 hectare decline from the June estimate. Production is estimated at 15.6 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
