One factor that may be keeping pressure on the corn market is Brazil’s anticipated record production. Currently, their FOB export values are cheaper than the US for August and September.
Yesterday, the Pro Farmer tour found corn yields in Indiana and Nebraska above last year (but still below the USDA’s projection).
Weekly US ethanol production has been above 1 million barrels per day for twelve consecutive weeks.
December corn may be trying to find support around the 4.80 level. It also remains at, or near, oversold levels on multiple technical indicators.
Heat warnings are in effect as far North as Minnesota. The hot and dry weather pattern may continue to stress crops over the next few days.
Private exporters reported sales of 100,000 mt of soybean cake and meal for delivery to unknown during the 23/24 marketing year.
Yesterday, the Pro Farmer tour found pod counts in Indiana and Nebraska above last year’s numbers.
November soybeans on China’s Dalian Exchange are trading around the equivalent of $19.04 per bushel. This represents a roughly 32% increase in price since the end of May.
SovEcon increased their estimate of Russian wheat production to 92.1 mmt (vs 87.1 mmt previously). This is above projection from both the USDA and the International Grains Council.
News outlets are reporting new Russian attacks on grain facilities overnight in Odessa and the Danube River area. However, at this time, it does not seem to have stimulated much buying interest, with wheat trading both sides of neutral this morning.
The US Dollar Index is slightly lower this morning, but remains in an uptrend. It is near an eleven-week high, and this continues to weigh on wheat prices.
In Argentina, the wheat crop is rated just 20% good to excellent as of last week. This is due to intense dryness, and could mean another decline in ratings this week.
There has still been no confirmation of the purchase of Russian wheat by India, though the talk is that they privately agreed to import between seven and nine million metric tons.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Private exporters reported sales of 112,000 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 24/25 marketing year, and 112,000 mt during 25/26.
The US Commerce Secretary, Gina Raimondo, will be heading to China to meet with officials and business leaders in an effort to stabilize relations between the two countries.
On yesterday’s Crop Progress report, corn condition declined 1% to 58% good to excellent.
Day one of the Pro Farmer crop tour found a corn yield in South Dakota of 157 bpa (vs 118.5 last year and 150 average).
September corn on China’s Dalian Exchange is trading around the equivalent of $9.69 per bushel.
The weather pattern looks to remain hot and dry this week. Some models do have rain across areas of Missouri and Nebraska late in the week, but at this time, there are no widespread systems forecasted through the end of the month.
Day one of the Pro Farmer crop tour found soybean pod counts in South Dakota at 1013 (vs 871 last year and an average of 1040).
On yesterday’s Crop Progress report, soybean condition was unchanged at 59% good to excellent.
September soybeans on China’s Dalian Exchange closed at a new 2023 high, the equivalent of $19.82 per bushel.
SovEcon raised their 2023 Russian wheat harvest projection from 87.1 mmt to 92.1 mmt.
Media outlets have reported plans are being developed to use public funds to insure vessels out of Ukraine and through the Black Sea (along the coasts of Romania and Bulgaria). While this has inherent risk, Ukraine’s “humanitarian corridor” may be used to transport more grain out of the country, and this is weighing on futures.
On yesterday’s Crop Progress report, spring wheat condition declined 4% to 38% good to excellent. Additionally, harvest is now 39% complete.
Taiwan flour millers are tendering for 104,000 mt of US milling wheat this week.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Private exporters reported sales of 111,770 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 23/24 marketing year.
The Pro Farmer tour began today. Last year, they came up with a corn yield around 168 bpa, but the final USDA number was 173 bpa.
China’s economy appears to continue to be struggling; the Shanghai Composite Index closed at a new 2023 low. (This index tracks stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange). Reportedly, they did drop their lending rate this weekend in an effort to stimulate the economy.
According to CONAB, Brazil’s safrinha corn harvest is now 72% complete (vs 86% at this time last year). Rains in southern Brazil are causing harvest delays.
Private exporters reported 159,350 mt of soybeans for delivery to unknown during the 23/24 marketing year.
Historically, the Pro Farmer tour finds a soybean yield about 2-3 bushels below the final USDA number.
Hot and dry conditions this week across much of the Midwest could help support the market. This should impact soybeans more than corn at this point in the season.
November soybeans on China’s Dalian exchange hit their 2023 high and are trading around the equivalent of $19.11 per bushel.
Soybean oil is getting a boost from Malaysian palm oil, which hit a three week high after a surge in exports.
Wildfires in Washington may have led to the destruction of wheat fields in that area over the weekend. However, at this point, it is not a major issue.
The market appears to be unfazed by new Ukrainian drone attacks on Moscow the past couple of days, which led to a temporary shutdown of one of their airports.
Dryness in Argentina and Australia could pose a significant threat to those wheat crops, and disappointing monsoon rains in India could lead to them being a net importer of wheat. The deal between India and Russia regarding a wheat purchase still has no confirmation.
US SRW wheat is now cheaper than French wheat, but the export market is still struggling.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher on a continuing forecast of hot and dry weather that is expected to last at least another 7 days.
Triple digit temperatures are expected today for the western Plains as far north as South Dakota, and the central Corn Belt can expect temperatures in the 90s.
Brazil is harvesting the final third of their second crop corn but will receive rain over the weekend, which could slow down progress.
This morning, the USDA announced a private export sale of 112,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico for the 23/24 year.
Soybeans are trading higher today with the hot and dry forecast supporting prices as they are in corn. Both soybean meal and oil are higher.
Yesterday’s export sales report showed new crop soybean sales of 389 mb, far below last year’s 671 mb at this time. Exports have been a struggle as the US competes with Brazil.
India’s July oilmeal exports rose to 381,301 tons, but soybean meal exports fell to 52,210 tons from 73,139 in June.
With these two weeks of hot and dry temperatures, the September WASDE report could show another reduction in yields, but that is also the report where acres could be adjusted higher which would affect the carryout.
Wheat is trading higher as well as futures become oversold on the technical side and may be carving out a bottom.
India is reportedly in confidential talks with Russia for a massive purchase of 9 mmt of wheat which would be the largest grain deal ever between the two countries. Indian wheat stocks are 20% below the 10-year average.
A drought in Kazakhstan has led to the destruction on 170 hectares of cropland with much of that being dedicated to wheat.
The International Grain Council is estimating world ending wheat stocks at 261 mmt or 9.59 bb which is slightly less than the USDA’s estimate of 265.6 mmt.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly higher near midday, but prices remain near their lowest levels of the year despite the forecast for hot and dry conditions until next week.
Dryness is forecast all along the Corn Belt and Midwest over the next 7 days, but the heat will be most intense in the western Plains while the eastern Corn Belt should not experience the extreme heat as much.
Export sales were nothing to write home about with 9.2 mb reported for old crop corn, up 16% from the prior 4-week average and new crop sales at 27.7 mb. 17.5 mb of corn was shipped, and 51 mb more needs to be shipped in the next 3 weeks to meet the USDA’s estimate.
US ethanol stocks rose by 2.4% to 23.435 m bbl, but analysts were expecting 22.83. Plant production was 1.069 m b/d compared to the survey average of 1.035.
Soybeans are trading higher, while soybean meal continues its downward trend and soybean oil continues higher with demand for biofuels rising.
This morning, the USDA reported 3.4 mb of export sales for old crop soybeans which was down 42% from the prior 4-week average. 51.7 mb of new crop sales were reported, and shipments were 16 mb. 30 mb more of soybeans need to be shipped within the next 3 weeks to meet the USDA’s estimates.
Brazilian food and fuel processor Caramuru Alimentos has started selling soybean-based ethanol at one of its plants in Brazil.
Soybean oil prices are getting a boost from higher palm oil on talk of increased imports from India, helping to firm soybean oil’s percent of crush value to 6-month highs, while also adding support to soybeans.
Wheat is trading lower but has backed off its earlier morning lows as trade ignores the concerns of Russian attacks on Ukrainian port cities.
Regarding the attacks in the Black Sea region, the markets seem to only react on the day that grain silos are destroyed, or agricultural infrastructure is destroyed. By the next day, markets are content to trend lower.
Ukraine’s August grain exports out of the Danube River are reported at 820,000 metric tons so far as the river becomes Ukraine’s main export route.
A container ship has left the port of Odesa in the Black Sea despite Russia’s threats to attack vessels after Ukraine announced their own humanitarian corridor to release the cargo ships that have been stuck.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly higher near midday after Russia attacked Odesa with more drones overnight and also struck grain silos and warehouses on the Danube River at the port of Reni.
Brazil has maintained the advantage in global corn exports, but now the US is on par with Brazilian FOB prices into November which could cause US exports to pick up.
The next two weeks forecast is to be very dry and hot over the Corn Belt, which could cause crop ratings to fall and may be supportive to prices.
The EIA will report on ethanol production today with average production estimates seen at 1.035 m b/d and stockpiles down from the previous week at 22.83 m bbl.
Soybeans have recovered slightly from yesterday’s selloff and have been trading in a tight range over the past week. Both soybean meal and oil are higher.
Export sales have picked up, which has been supportive, but the recent rains have greatly improved crop ratings, and a larger crop is possible, which has made it difficult for soybeans to rally further.
Palm oil prices have picked up, which has been supportive of soybean oil, causing it to be up for three consecutive days. Biodiesel usage has grown, which has helped support demand.
The July NOPA report revealed a record large crush of 173.3 mb, with profitable crush margins in a range of 3 to 4 dollars incentivizing processors.
Wheat is trading slightly higher, but is surprisingly quiet considering last night’s attacks on grain facilities in Odesa, as well as ports on the Danube River that Ukraine has been attempting to use to export grains.
Wheat has remained very oversold and has struggled to rally on bullish news because Russia continues to export wheat at much cheaper levels than other competitors.
Globally, apart from Russia, many countries are struggling with weather negatively impacting their wheat crops. Argentina and Australia are dealing with dryness due to the El Nino pattern. India, Canada, and the US have also dealt with weather issues.
A container ship has left the port of Odesa in the Black Sea despite Russia’s threats to attack vessels after Ukraine announced their own humanitarian corridor to release the cargo ships that have been stuck.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading lower near midday and continues to test the recent low of 4.81 in December, but has not yet broken through it.
The good to excellent rating for corn rose by 2% to 59% and is now rated higher than last year’s crop at this time. 96% of the crop is silking, while 65% is dough stage.
While the forecast calls for hot and dry conditions throughout the Corn Belt over the next 7 days, the western Plains are expected to be especially hot with triple digit temperatures forecast.
Rain is falling in Brazil, which is slowing their second crop corn harvest, but it is also helping their upcoming planting conditions which will begin next month.
Soybeans are trading lower this morning following a big improvement in crop ratings. Soybean meal is lower, while soybean oil is higher.
Crop progress saw a 5% increase in the good to excellent rating for soybeans, with 78% of the crop setting pods.
Yesterday’s large sale of 15.3 mb of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 23/24 marketing year was an addition to the recent string of sales, and demand in the U.S. remains strong as well.
Palm oil prices are expected to rise slightly due to El Niño concerns, in which the impact will mostly be seen in 2024. This should help support soybean oil.
Wheat is trading lower at midday following crop progress, which showed spring wheat conditions improving and winter wheat harvest nearly completed.
92% of the winter wheat crop is harvested with Washington, Idaho, and Montana with more still to harvest. 24% of spring wheat has been harvested, and the next week is dry and favorable for more progress.
Russian FOB wheat offers have risen by $21 per metric ton over the past few weeks, and although they maintain the competitive advantage, U.S. prices are becoming more competitive.
Reuters reported that Russian missiles caused damage and civilian fatalities in western Ukraine this morning as the fighting continues to escalate.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading slightly lower today but rebounded slightly after hitting its recent low of 4.81 in December and was unable to take that level out.
Friday’s USDA report estimated corn yield 2.4 bpa lower than the previous guess and is now expecting the national yield at 175.1 bpa.
While the USDA’s drop in yield estimates was friendly, they also lowered US corn exports which put ending stocks over 2.0 bb, so the overall report reaction was bearish.
Rains fell throughout the Northern Plains and northern Midwest over the weekend, but the forecast is now showing a drier trend for the rest of August and maybe even into September.
Soybeans are trading higher along with both soybean meal and oil on the heels of Friday’s WASDE report which showed a very tight ending stocks number.
Soybeans are also getting support from a flash sale reported by private exporters this morning to unknown destinations of 416,000 mt of soybeans.
India, who is the world’s largest importer of vegetable oils, reportedly imported 59% more palm oil in June but their imports of soybean oil fell by 22%.
On Friday, the USDA estimated new crop ending stocks at 245 mb, a decline of 55 mb. Yields were also lowered by 1.1 bpa from July, but recent rains may have given yield numbers a boost.
Wheat is trading lower around midday despite tension further escalating between Russia and Ukraine. Friday’s report showed US winter wheat yields improving which may be adding pressure.
Over the weekend, Russia fired warning shots at a civilian vessel in the Black Sea and sent more drones to the port of Odesa. Russia has said that they would retaliate for the attacks on the Crimean bridge.
Russian FOB wheat offers have risen by $21 per metric ton over the past few weeks, and although they maintain the competitive advantage, US prices are becoming more competitive.
The WASDE report showed US ending stocks rising by 23 mb due to declines in demand, but other countries may see their ending stocks falling due to lower production. Argentina, Canada, India, and Australia are all having weather difficulties.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Private exporters reported sales of 143,637 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 23/24 marketing year.
President Biden made comments that the Chinese economy is a “ticking time bomb”, further increasing tension between the two nations.
More rain over the next five days is forecasted for the north and central Corn Belt, but the longer range forecast is drier.
December corn is consolidating on the charts, forming a potential pennant pattern that would point to more downside price movement.
As of August 8th, 49% of the US corn crop is said to be experiencing drought conditions.
The 8-14 day US weather map looks warm and dry. Ridging across the Midwest in yesterday’s forecast has been reduced. Some soybean areas could probably use the dry weather, while others still could use some rain.
Low water levels in the Panama Canal are slowing trade in that area. So far Brazil is still able to satisfy China’s demand for corn and soybeans, however.
Soybean meal on China’s Dalian Exchange continues to make new highs. China continues to buy large amounts of soybeans, with crush demand positive.
As of August 8th, 43% of the US soybean crop is said to be experiencing drought conditions.
Wheat export sales yesterday were better than expected, but are still behind last year’s pace. US soft wheat is becoming more competitive with Europe and the Black Sea.
All three US wheat futures classes are considered oversold by some technical indicators, including stochastics.
Paris milling wheat futures are lower this morning and have had a lower close for 11 out of the last 14 sessions.
As of August 8th, 52% of the US spring wheat crop is said to be experiencing drought conditions.
Russian wheat FOB export values are said to be around $255 per mt (as of today).
According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, Argentina has 14.8 million acres of wheat planted. Dryness there is still a concern though.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The USDA reported an increase of 5.9 mb of corn export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 29.9 mb for 23/24.
Pre-report estimates suggest a corn yield of 175.4 bpa (vs 177.5 last month). Carryout for 23/24 is expected at 2,179 mb (vs 2,262 mb in July).
Chinese economic and trade data suggests that their economy is slowing. However, they did end restrictions on travel, which could help their economy to pick back up.
After recent weather problems in northern China, they may need to buy more corn for their reserves. However, it will likely come from Brazil, which remains cheaper than US. September corn on their Bovespa Exchange is trading around the equivalent of $4.75 per bushel.
More rain is expected for the central and eastern Corn Belt over the next five days or so.
The USDA reported an increase of 14.9 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23, and an increase of 40.3 mb for 23/24.
Pre-report estimates suggest a soybean yield of 51.2 bpa (vs 52 last month). Carryout for 23/24 is expected at 261 mb (vs 300 mb in July).
Compared with Brazil, US new crop soybeans are competitive for the Oct-Dec timeframe, which could lead to more purchases by China.
India has purchased 60% more palm oil in July (compared to June) due to the fact that it is about $100-$150 per ton cheaper than soybean or sunflower oil.
The USDA reported an increase of 20.9 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24, and a decrease of 0.2 mb for 24/25.
On tomorrow’s report, the USDA may lower wheat production for India and China due to the weather problems they have experienced.
Despite FOB export values about $20-$30 per ton higher over the past couple weeks, Russian wheat is still the world’s cheapest. This continues to pressure the US export market.
Strategie Grains, a consultancy group, lowered their estimate of EU soft wheat production to 124.7 mmt (vs 126.2 previously), citing heat and dry weather as the cause.
Wheat prices are on the rise in India, and they are said to be releasing 5 mmt from their reserves (for domestic use) in order to combat these higher prices. This also supports the talks that they are looking to import Russian wheat.
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