Midday

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading higher at midday as weather forecasts are becoming questionable and the drought monitor is not showing as much relief as had been hoped after recent rains.
• The northern Corn Belt is expected to receive less rainfall than hoped over the next 7 days, but the southern half of the Corn Belt is forecast to receive beneficial rains.
• National soil moisture remains an issue with 48% short to very short. Missouri is at 83%, Wisconsin at 71%, and Illinois and Michigan both at 67%.
• Brazil has reportedly harvested 20% of their second crop corn and based on yield data, analysts raised production estimates again.

• Soybeans are trading lower today, along with both soybean meal and oil after futures became a bit too overbought, and funds are likely taking a breather.
• Brazilian FOB offers are now at over a dollar discount to US values and will be there for the next few months making export sales even more difficult for the US.
• Brazil’s export group, ANEC, reported that June soy exports rose to 9.44 mmt, which compares with 7 mmt in June of last year.
• The USDA’s forecast for 83.5 million acres of beans has kept prices elevated, and next week’s WASDE could add to the bullishness with a small ending stocks number.

• Wheat is still mixed with Chicago posting the most losses followed by KC, but Minn wheat is managing to stay slightly higher.
• Russia attacked the city of Lviv overnight and Ukrainian forces have said that Russia is making slow progress in taking back eastern Ukraine.
• Russia’s wheat crop estimates were raised by 2.5 mmt and are now at 85.7 mmt on good weather.
• The French 2023 soft wheat yield is seen at 5% above the 10-year average and was helped by good sowing conditions and frequent rains in early spring.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading lower this morning following rains over the Independence Day holiday and continued pressure from Friday’s NASS seeding report.
• The USDA said that the planting estimate for corn was 94.1 million acres which would increase ending stocks and has caused selling in corn futures.
• On Friday, crop progress was released showing the corn crop rated 51% good to excellent, up just one point from a week ago. Illinois, Iowa, and Indiana showed improvement from a week ago.
• Illinois crop ratings improved by 10 points to 36% good to excellent, but Missouri came in at just 23% and 37% of the crop poor to very poor. Missouri is expected to receive beneficial rains this week, which should help next week’s ratings.

• Soybeans are trading higher after Monday’s Crop Progress report, which showed conditions worsening, but Friday’s acreage report is still giving buying momentum with acres projected to be tight.
• August soybean oil closed at a new high for the year on Monday as demand picks up. Yesterday, both canola and rapeseed traded higher.
• Despite the recent beneficial rains in the driest areas of the Corn Belt, crop progress showed soybeans falling by 1% in the good to excellent rating and is now at 50%, the lowest rating for this time of year since 2012.
• In China, soybeans on the Dalian exchange showed September futures rising nearly 3% to $17.12 per bushel, which is a four-month high.

• Wheat is trading up this morning with KC leading the charge higher after crop progress results came in showing conditions worsening.
• On Monday, the USDA said that 37% of winter wheat was harvested, which is down from a five-year average of 46% for this time of year. Winter wheat good to excellent ratings were steady at 40%.
• Spring wheat good to excellent ratings slipped 2% to 48% good to excellent, and in North Dakota, ratings slipped from 49% to 40%.
• There is increased tension between Russia and Ukraine right now concerning the nuclear power plant with both countries accusing each other of plotting imminent attacks on the plant. This comes as it appears the Black Sea grain deal may not be renewed.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed
Tuesday, July 4, in observance of Independence Day

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn began higher in the overnight but has faded and is now relatively unchanged. Friday’s USDA report was bearish for corn after planted acres were forecast to be higher.
• Very beneficial rains fell over some of the driest areas of the Corn Belt this weekend, but there was also some hail and rain damage in some fields.
• Last week’s acreage number came in 2.1 million acres higher than in March which pressured futures, but the June 1 stocks number was lower than expected and down 155 mb from pre report estimates.
• This afternoon’s Crop Progress report will let traders know whether or not the recent rains were enough to help the crop turn around. Good to excellent ratings will likely increase.

• Soybeans are still riding the high from Friday’s very bullish USDA report but have faded slightly from overnight highs which hit the highest prices since February 24.
• Friday’s NASS stocks and seeding report showed that soybean stocks were 16 mb below estimates and 172 mb below a year ago, but the huge bullish news was soybean acres falling 4 million below March intentions.
• Soy products in China followed the lead of US markets and moved higher with soybean oil on the Dalian exchange rising 6%.
• World veg oils have been moving significantly higher with Malaysian palm oil futures up 5.2% which is the highest level since March. US soybean oil futures are at their highest levels since December of last year.

• Wheat has bounced around today, opening lower but now trading significantly higher in the KC wheat contract, while Chicago is a bit higher and Minn. wheat lower.
• Friday’s USDA report showed wheat stocks to be lower than expected at 580 mb, 31 mb lower than expectations and what would be the lowest in 16 years.
• The EU is weighing concessions to a Russian bank over the Black Sea grain deal in hopes that Russia will agree to extend the deal.
• Friday’s CFTC report showed funds buying back a big chunk of their short position. They bought back 31,966 contracts, reducing their net short position to 52,168 contracts.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

The CME and Total Farm Marketing offices will be closed
Tuesday, July 4, in observance of Independence Day

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• It is estimated that 70% of the US corn crop remains in drought. This is up from last week at 64%.
• The storm system yesterday brought reports of hail and wind damage in several areas of the Midwest. The National Weather Service is officially calling this a derecho due to the strength of the winds over a widespread area.
• The seven-day forecast continues to show rain for a large part of the corn belt, including some of the driest areas that received rain yesterday.
• After the recent downtrend, corn futures are now at or near oversold levels on daily stochastics.
• According to CONAB, Brazil’s government is ready to buy 500,000 mt of corn in an effort to rebuild food stocks.

• It is estimated that 63% of the US soybean crop is in drought. This is up from 57% last week.
• Private exporters reported sales of 132,000 mt of soybeans for delivery to China during the 23/24 marketing year.
• Soybean oil is more than 2 cents higher this morning, which may be fueled by a higher palm oil market. This in turn may be offering support to soybean futures which currently show double-digit gains for the day.
• After today’s Stock and Acreage reports, the next USDA report will be the WASDE on July 12. Due to worsening crop conditions for soybeans (and corn), there is a good chance they will lower yields at that time. The big question is whether or not that will be enough to offset poor export demand, with commitments to date behind the USDA’s goal.
• Argentina’s soybean harvest is now complete, and yields are said to be 45% behind the 5-year average, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.

• KC wheat is leading the US wheat complex higher this morning. Paris milling wheat futures are also higher for the second day in a row – France reported another decline in their crop condition to 81% good to excellent.
• South Korean flour mills are reported to have purchased 50,000 mt of US wheat overnight.
• Chicago wheat futures have downward momentum on both daily stochastics and the RSI. However, December Chicago wheat may be finding support near the 21-day moving average, which today is at 6.90-3/4.
• Not only is today a report day, but it is also month and quarter end. This could result in position squaring and increased volatility. The upcoming shortened Independence Day holiday week could have a similar result, especially if the weather forecast has any major changes this weekend.
• Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, told reporters that he sees no arguments to extend the Black Sea Grain Initiative. The current deal is set to expire on July 18.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• The USDA reported an increase of 5.5 mb of corn export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 4.9 mb for 23/24.
• Weather still appears to be the main driver of the grain complex. Rain is forecasted for some of the drier areas of the central Midwest. However, grain markets are mixed at midday, suggesting that they are finding some support at these lower levels.  
• Yesterday’s announced purchase of US corn by Mexico is supportive but does once again bring up the question of their impending GMO ban on imports down the road.
• A South Korean feed company is tendering for 130,000 mt of feed corn. Given the discount of South American exports vs US, as well as grain still flowing out of the Black Sea, it is unlikely to be sourced from here.

• The USDA reported an increase of 8.4 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 0.6 mb for 23/24.
• Soybean meal and oil are slightly higher at midday, which may be keeping soybean futures afloat. The Malaysian palm oil futures market is on holiday so there is no influence on US markets currently.
• Reportedly, South American soybean meal offers dropped $18 per ton, compared with the previous day. This is sure to keep pressure on the US export market, which is still not performing well.
• Right now, bulls and bears are battling between poor crop ratings, vs rain in the forecast and poor exports. Tomorrow’s reports could help provide some direction – the stocks number will likely be more of a factor and there is some anticipation that June 1 soybean stocks will be tighter than expected.  

• The USDA reported an increase of 5.7 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24.
• US wheat futures appear to be probing for a bottom this morning. Some support may be coming from higher Matif wheat futures, which have a gap above the market that may yet be filled.
• Offering resistance to US wheat is the fact that Canda revised their spring wheat seeding higher, to the largest acreage since 2001.
• The US Ag Attaché in Australia is estimating their wheat crop at 29 mmt. That is a reduction of about 10 mmt from last year in anticipation of the El Nino drought conditions.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Private exporters reported sales of 170,706 mt of corn for delivery to Mexico, with 21,340 mt for delivery during the 22/23 marketing year and 149,366 during 23/24.
• The weather forecast for some of the drier areas of the Midwest has relief over the next 10-14 days, and this is continuing to weigh on the grain complex.
• July corn futures are holding together better than new crop, suggesting that domestic supply is still tight for old crop.
• On Friday, traders will receive the quarterly stocks and acreage reports. The average pre-report estimate for Friday’s data has corn acreage at 91.809 million vs 91.996 in March. The stocks number is expected to come in at 4,261 mb compared to 7,401 in March.

• For the month of June, soybean oil has rallied from about 45 cents to 60 cents per pound. But this morning both meal and oil are down, which could account for the sharp decline in soybean futures.
• The market seems more focused on the rain forecast and drop in export demand, compared to the reduction in crop ratings for soybeans (and corn too).
• ABIOVE, which is Brazil’s oilseed group, increased their estimate of Brazilian soy exports by 1.3 mmt to a record 97.3 mmt.
• On Friday, the trade is looking for soybean acres at 87.660 million, vs 87.505 in March. The stocks number for soybeans is anticipated to be 808 mb vs 1,685 in March.

• Over the past week, 2 cargoes of wheat (and 5 cargoes of corn) left Ukrainian ports headed for Europe and China.
• Winter wheat harvest continues but remains well behind the average pace. With more rain on the way, it may delay harvest even further. However, the moisture should improve spring wheat conditions in the northern US.
• The Ukraine Grain Traders Union is reportedly estimating their wheat crop at 24.4 mmt (vs lower estimates ranging from 16-18 mmt)
• On Friday, traders are looking for all wheat acreage at 49.647 million acres, vs 49.855 in March. The stocks number for wheat is expected to come in at 611 mb, vs 946 in March.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• The corn crop was rated 50% good to excellent vs 55% last week (and 67% last year). This is the worst rating for this time of year since 1988.
• Corn (and the whole grain complex) is trading lower this morning due to increased chances for rain in the Midwest, especially in some of the areas that missed the last round of precipitation. Currently there are two potential rain events, with the second probably bringing wider coverage and heavier amounts.
• Global weather conditions are mostly favorable. It is still dry in Argentina, but as of right now Australia is normal (despite the El Nino weather pattern which could bring them drought).
• As of writing, July corn is nearly 75 cents above September. First notice day for July futures is this Friday, meaning any one long futures is at risk of being delivered against. With the quarterly Stocks and Acreage reports also on Friday, markets could remain volatile into the end of the week.

• The soybean crop was rated 51% good to excellent vs 54% last week (and 65% last year).
• On daily stochastics and the RSI, November soybeans are at or near overbought levels. Momentum is also starting to trend downwards.
• Yesterday’s soybean export inspections were poor at only 5.2 mb. This may also be limiting upside in futures, and not just in soybeans. Brazil is undercutting US exports for both corn and beans, while Russia is doing the same in wheat.
• July soybean futures are roughly $1 above August, reflecting tight supply of old crop. As with corn, first notice day is on Friday is sure to affect this spread, as traders who are long will need to exit the July contract.
• Soybean meal and oil are also lower this morning, offering no support to soybean futures.

• The winter wheat crop is 24% harvested, compared to 33% average. Crop conditions did also rise 2% from last week to 40% good to excellent.
• The spring wheat crop is rated 50% good to excellent vs 51% last week (and 59% last year).
• Yesterday’s concern about availability of Black Sea wheat seems to have since been quashed. The Wagner coup against Russia appears to have disintegrated, and prices faded in tandem.
• Paris milling wheat futures gapped lower, also offering no support to US futures today.
• Russian wheat FOB export offers a range from roughly $230 – $240 per ton, well below that of US or other world offerings. This is keeping pressure on the US market. However, there is still the possibility that Russia will not extend the Black Sea export deal on July 18th, with reports by the Ukraine Sea Ports Authority that Russia is impeding grain shipments.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Over the weekend, there was good rain in the Dakotas and parts of the northern Midwest. However, several key growing regions appeared to get little to none of this moisture.
• The 8-14 day forecast does have above-normal precipitation for the whole Corn Belt. But the key will be whether or not it materializes. 
• CFTC data showed that funds were buyers of 140,000 grain contracts (corn / soy complex / wheat) as of last Tuesday. This now puts them net long corn (as well as soybeans).
• This afternoon’s Crop Progress report is expected to show another decline in corn crop ratings. Traders look for a 2%-4% reduction in the good to excellent category.
• As of June 17th, CONAB said 5.3% of Brazil’s second crop (safrinha) corn had been harvested. This is 5.8% behind last year’s pace.

• Higher palm oil overnight is supporting soybean oil, which has reversed off of last week’s low. With both oil and meal higher at midday, soybeans are receiving a boost as well.
• There are concerns about vegetable oil exports out of Ukraine, with uncertainties surrounding the Russian coup, as well as the potential closure of the Black Sea export corridor in July. This may also be supporting soybean oil.
• This afternoon’s Crop Progress report is expected to show another decline in soybean crop ratings. Traders look for a 3%-4% reduction in the good to excellent category.
• India’s oilseed exports are anticipated to increase by 10%-15% this fiscal year due to expanding acreage. For 22/23, their oilseed exports rose by 20%. There is still a question, however, as to what effect El Nino may have on the crop down the road.

• Strength in the wheat market this morning may be tied to a mutiny by the Wagner group against Russia. However, at this time, it appears they may have made a deal, because the group heading towards Moscow has since turned around and went back to Ukraine. This does still raise questions about the war, and ultimately, what it will mean for wheat exports.
• Managed funds are still net short Chicago wheat. With the uncertainty of global weather and geopolitics, the market may also be seeing some short covering today.
• Matif wheat gapped higher on the open, likely for the same reasons mentioned above. In any case, this is also supportive to US futures. This is also despite the fact that some rains hit the dry areas of northern Europe over the weekend.
• There is still question as to how much Chinese wheat was damaged or downgraded due to the heavy rainfall a few weeks ago.
• Russia’s wheat export tax will reportedly be reduced from 2,613 rubles (per ton) to 2,473 rubles, according to their agriculture ministry.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading sharply lower after weather models overnight shifted to push rain into Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana over the weekend.
• Both the 6–10-day forecast, and 8-14 day are now showing above average precipitation, as well as normal temperatures, which would bring milder and wetter conditions into July.
• While corn is down significantly, it did find support at the 200-day moving average and bounced off of it to a few cents higher.
• Between June and July in 2012, the USDA lowered corn yield by 20 bu. and if it were to happen this year, there are concerns that it would put yield below 170 and take nearly 1 billion bushels from this year’s production.

• Soybeans are trading lower with losses primarily in the deferred contracts as soybean meal falls over 4% in the Dec contract, but soybean oil recovers slightly despite losses in crude oil.
• New crop soybeans have fallen over 72 cents in the past two days from Wednesday’s high after funds began profit taking and weather forecasts have changed to be wetter over the next two weeks.
• Palm oil rose by 1.74% today, which has given some support to soybean oil after its sharp selloff due to the EPA biofuel mandate.
• The weekly drought monitor has shown that 57% of the soybean crop is now considered to be in drought, and in 2012, that number was 43% this time of year, but new forecasts are showing more promise for rain in July.

• Wheat has been following movements in corn and, therefore, is lower today as wetter forecasts pressure corn futures.
• The Russian wheat crop has also been cut by 1.2 mmt for 2023 due to dry conditions in main growing regions and poor soil moisture.
• India’s wheat output for 2023 is at least 10% lower than the government’s estimate, which has caused a sharp increase in local prices over the past 2 months.
• It is now appearing very unlikely that Russia will renew the Black Sea grain deal on July 18 unless their demands are met. Recently, news out of the Black Sea region has not had much influence on the markets.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies. 

All prices as of 10:30 am Central Time

• Corn is trading lower today due to profit taking and an updated 7-day weather forecast that shows increased chances of rain in Iowa.
• The recent drop in corn conditions over the past three weeks will likely force the USDA to lower yields on the July WASDE report and therefore, ending stocks.
• Exports have been stale as US competitiveness weakens due to high prices, especially as Brazil is slated to harvest a big second crop corn.
• Today’s drought monitor is expected to show drought expanding even more, and crop conditions haven’t been this poor since the drought year of 1988.

• Soybeans are under pressure today as both soy products fall sharply driven by soybean oil after yesterday’s EPA announcement. All three soy products have expanded limits after soybean oil closed limit down.
• The new RFS mandates for 2024 and 2025 show that we would have less soybean processing demand for soybean oil to be used in renewable diesel production.
• Argentina has become the second largest buyer of Brazilian soy products this year behind China after their drought severely impacted their crop, which they need to meet crush expectations.
• Additional pressure has come from the Federal Reserve indicating that further rate hikes would be likely this year.

• Wheat has been trading either side of unchanged so far this morning, but is currently lower, along with both corn and soybeans.
• The Russian wheat crop has also been cut by 1.2 mmt for 2023 due to dry conditions in main growing regions and poor soil moisture.
• India’s wheat output for 2023 is at least 10% lower than the government’s estimate, which has caused a sharp increase in local prices over the past two months.
• Globally, wheat crops may be in trouble as conditions worsen in major wheat growing areas such as the US, Russia, Argentina, and China.

Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.

Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.