Corn is lower around midday after trading higher in the overnight in response to a new attack last night by Russia on Ukraine’s port city of Odessa. This makes the third night in a row of attacks on Odesa with 60,000 tons of grain being destroyed yesterday.
Export sales for corn were poor last week with net sales of 9.3 mb for 22/23, which was down 49% from the previous week but up 6% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales for 23/24 were 19.4 mb, and exports of 15.1 mb were down 22% from the previous week.
Brazil’s second crop corn is now seen at a record 54 mmt which would be up 16% from last season and secures Brazil’s new spot as the top corn exporter.
The new monthly weather outlook has been released by NOAA and shows below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation for most of the Corn Belt.
Soybeans are trading lower along with soybean meal, while soybean oil is higher with support from crude oil. Overbought futures may be adding pressure along with new weather forecasts that show better conditions over the next month and into mid-August which is a crucial time for soybeans.
Net sales of soybeans were sluggish again with 4.7 mb for 22/23, which was up 58% from the previous week but down 43% from the prior 4-week average. Net sales for 23/24 were 27.9 mb, and exports of 8.8 mb were down 29% from the previous week and 15% from the prior 4-week average.
Thanks to Brazil’s record large crop, they have been the world’s leading seller and main supplier of China, whose soy imports from Brazil for June were up 31.6% from the previous month.
The withdrawal of Russia from the grain deal has had impacts on soybean prices due to Ukraine’s exports of sunflower oil and meal, and with those exports halted, other world veg oils have moved higher. October palm oil was up 3.9% today and soybean oil is following suit.
Wheat has traded all over the place so far today with prices higher overnight on the heels of another Russian attack on Odesa, but a few hours later prices plummeted, and now have stabilized around unchanged.
Russia has said that any vessels in the Black Sea region will now be assumed to be carrying military goods, so Ukraine will need to export their grains through other routes.
Since the beginning of the Black Sea Grain Initiative on July 27, 2022, over 31.1 mmt of grains and veg oils have shipped from three Ukrainian ports to 46 countries.
Technically, December wheat may have found resistance at the 200-day moving average at 7.60 because futures slightly exceeded that level before backing off lower.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher this afternoon but has faded significantly off its highs from early this morning which was led by a new Russian attack on the port city of Odessa in Ukraine.
Projections for ethanol production for the week ending July 14 is showing production higher than the previous week at 1.042 million b/d with the stockpile average estimate above a week ago.
The 10-day forecast for the Corn Belt is still showing dry conditions with temperatures turning the hottest of the season beginning this weekend. Minnesota received some light showers overnight.
Brazil continues to dominate export sales and is projected to continue this into the fall, but Brazilian FOB basis has increased between 60 and 65 cents per bushel in the last month making the US slightly more competitive.
Soybeans are continuing their trend higher again today but have slipped from earlier highs as corn has. Nov beans made new highs for the year today, but soybean meal has slipped lower and soybean oil is posting gains of nearly 3%.
The NWS will likely release their 30 and 90-day forecasts this week which the soy complex will watch closely for an idea on moisture and temperature into the pod fill season.
Forecasts are predicting that August will begin with higher-than-normal temperatures in the western Corn Belt, so rainfall will be important to shore up the poor current soil moisture levels.
NOPA June soybean crush fell to a 9-month low of 165.023 million bushels, down from the 177.915 mb processed in May.
Wheat is trading higher at midday following attacks on Ukraine’s port of Odessa in the Black Sea by Russia, as well as poor crop conditions in the US.
Breaking news was just released that the Russian Defense Ministry will consider all ships traveling to Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea as potential carriers of military cargo.
This morning, Russia said that ships in the Black Sea would be “in danger”, but they have also said that they would be willing to come back to negotiate in 3 months if the UN makes good on Russian demands.
The UN is apparently “floating” ideas on how to get Ukrainian and Russian grain out to the rest of the world as the Black Sea is closed.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn is trading higher today and is on track for the third higher close in the last four trading days. This comes after the withdrawal of Russia from the grain deal and despite an improvement in crop conditions.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed corn good to excellent ratings improving by 2 points to 57%. National corn pollination is now 47% complete with northern states entering their pollination phase.
The 8-to-14-day forecast remains dry and warm which could easily pose a threat to yield. Some rains are forecast to fall in the North while very scattered showers are expected in the Corn Belt over the next 7 days.
Yesterday’s corn export inspections were slow again with inspections totaling 14.3 mb for the week ending Thursday, July 13. Total inspections for 22/23 are now at 1.334 bb and down 33% from the previous year.
Soybeans are continuing their move higher and have taken out their more recent high from July 3 as soybean meal continues to rally on low Argentinian supply. Soybean oil is trading slightly higher.
Yesterday’s crop progress showed the soy crop improving more than the average trade guess with an increase of 4 points for a good to excellent rating of 55%. While an improvement, it is the second lowest rating since 2012, and only 20% of the crop are setting pods.
NOPA June soybean crush fell to a 9-month low of 165.023 million bushels, down from the 177.915 mb processed in May.
Chinese purchases of soybeans picked up last week, but they mainly sourced from Brazil and only bought small amounts from the US. There have been rumors that China has been buying more September and October beans from Brazil in the past week.
Wheat is trading higher at midday with KC posting the most gains and Chicago not far behind after Russia attacked Ukraine’s port of Odessa overnight in retaliation to the attack on the Crimean bridge.
Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed an increase in spring wheat’s good to excellent ratings by 4 points to 51%, but with the upcoming dry and warm forecast, crop conditions could easily drop back down.
Russia’s withdrawal from the grain deal, in addition to their attack on Odessa, has sent wheat prices moving higher globally with Russian wheat reportedly up 50 cents per bushel in the past two weeks.
Winter wheat harvest in the US is now 56% complete but continues to lag the average pace of 69%. Harvest in Kansas meanwhile saw a 12% jump from last week and is now 71% complete.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Corn has turned lower around midday, after news that Russia was withdrawing from the Ukrainian grain deal sent corn, soybeans, and wheat higher. Traders have grown tired of this back and forth, however, and prices are already slipping.
Russia exited the grain deal after an attack on the bridge connecting Russia to Crimea overnight, and now Ukraine will need to send exports through Europe and the Danube River.
Weather forecasts over the next 8 to 14 days have turned drier and warmer, which may add some bullishness to the market. 64% of the corn crop is still experiencing some form of drought.
Last week, China was an active buyer of Brazilian and Ukrainian corn which gave the impression that demand was picking up, but export sales for US corn have still been very sluggish due to higher prices.
As in corn, soybeans were higher to start the day but have slipped at midday and are now near lows of the day. Russia’s decision to exit the grain deal will have an impact on Ukraine’s exports of sunflower meal and oil which could impact soybean meal and oil in the US.
Palm oil exports jumped a whopping 19.3% in June and futures are higher as a result, which adds more bullish sentiment to soybean oil, especially after the grain deal announcement.
The NOPA crush report will be released later today, and traders are looking for a crush of 172 mb and soybean oil stocks to fall 1.780 billion pounds.
Chinese purchases of soybeans picked up last week, but they mainly sourced from Brazil and only bought small amounts from the US. There have been rumors that China has been buying more September and October beans from Brazil in the past week.
Wheat, which should have been the most helped by the withdrawal of Russia from the Ukrainian grain deal, is now trading lower. It appears that traders are tired of the back and forth and quickly went back to selling after the news broke.
Chicago wheat gapped higher on the open after the Russia news but just closed that gap and is sitting right at its 40 and 50-day moving average.
The US Dollar is trading at its lowest levels in over a year which should make the US more competitive regarding exports. Paris milling wheat futures were higher this morning for the third straight day, which is also supportive.
Weather for spring wheat is not looking great, and analysts have said that without substantial rains in the Canadian Prairies, Canadian production could slide another few million tons lower. North Dakota and Minnesota are also in need of rain.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
There is talk that many traders are in disbelief of the USDA report numbers. This may explain, at least in part, why grains are trying to rebound after a negative report.
The 8-14 day forecast shows warmer and drier than normal conditions across parts of the Midwest, which may also be offering some support to the grain market.
Recent weakness in the US dollar is supportive to com commodity prices. The CPI data showed an easing of inflation, and demand for food and fuel may increase.
About 64% of the US corn crop is still said to be experiencing drought conditions.
CONAB raised their estimate of Brazilian corn production to 127.8 mmt (vs 125.7 previously).
After a higher overnight trade, soybean futures are lower at midday. This could be the result of profit taking after yesterday’s recovery.
China has been an active buyer of Brazilian soybeans for May-July 2024. They have also purchased some from the US Pacific Northwest.
CONAB reduced their estimate of Brazil’s soybean production to 154.6 mmt (vs 155.7 previously).
The expectation for June NOPA soybean crush comes in at 170.568 mb. That would be down 4.1% from May, but that is expected due to seasonal downtime for maintenance and repairs. The actual NOPA data will be released on Monday.
About 57% of the US soybean crop is said to be experiencing drought conditions.
India is reportedly banning rice exports because of shortages. They normally export about 18 mmt of the world’s 55 mmt. This has led to some thought that they will need to import wheat, as it is the next food staple in line.
The forecast looks mostly dry for the Dakotas and Minnesota over the next couple weeks, which may affect spring wheat crop ratings. Spring wheat areas of Canada are also too dry.
The Black Sea Grain Initiative expires on Monday. If an agreement for an extension is not reached, world supplies could tighten. Russia has come out and said they are willing to extend the deal if they are let back into the SWIFT banking program.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The USDA reported an increase of 18.4 mb of corn export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 18.5 mb for 23/24.
CPI data yesterday is leading to some thoughts that the Fed may be nearing the end of the interest rate increases. This is also pressuring the US dollar and maybe putting some risk premium back into financial and commodity markets.
The western Corn Belt looks to be drier and warmer for the second week of the forecast.
The USDA’s increased estimate of Brazilian corn production, at 133 mmt (vs 132 previously), will likely limit upside for US futures. Brazil export values are also cheaper than US, pressuring the export market too.
The USDA reported an increase of 3.0 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 7.7 mb for 23/24.
Private exporters reported sales of 315,704 mt of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 23/24 marketing year.
Yesterday’s USDA estimate of new crop soybean carryout at 300 mb was higher than many anticipated.
Chinese soybean imports in June totaled 10.27 mmt; this is 24.5% above last year for the same timeframe.
The USDA reported an increase of 14.5 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24.
The USDA estimated 4.76 bb of global wheat ending stocks (excluding China). This is the lowest in 11 years.
The 8-14 day forecast is predicting below normal rainfall for spring wheat areas in the northern US plains. Canda is also dry, which may affect their canola and spring wheat production.
According to the Rosario Board of Trade, Argentina is expected to plant 5.4 million hectares of wheat, a 200,000 hectare decline from the June estimate. Production is estimated at 15.6 mmt.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Parts of the central and southern Corn Belt should receive good rains over the next five days, bringing relief to some of the driest areas.
FOB corn prices in Brazil are still cheaper than the US, keeping pressure on exports.
About 30% of China’s corn is said to be in dry areas that could affect their production. This could lead to increased Chinese imports down the road, though where they source the beans from is another question.
July corn on Brazil’s Bovespa Exchange is around the equivalent of $4.80 per bushel. This is near the lowest level in two years.
Private exporters reported sales of 105,000 mt of soybean meal sold to unknown destinations for the 23/24 marketing year.
Both soybean meal and oil are higher this morning, offering a boost to soybean futures. Palm oil is higher as well, providing some support too.
CPI data this morning showed that inflation increased 0.2% in June, which was below expectations.
China is increasing soybean imports from Brazil due to growing concerns about what US supply will look like. As of June 29, China has bought just 1.72 mmt of US soybeans (for 23/24) vs 7.77 mmt for the same time period last year.
Spring wheat areas have a mostly dry forecast for the next 7 days, including the northern US Plains and the Canadian prairies.
Russian drone attacks on the Odessa port in Ukraine led to some support in the wheat market yesterday. Reportedly, of the 20 drones sent, only 2 made it through Ukraine’s air defense system. In any case, this does not bode well for the extension of the export corridor that expires next week.
The US Dollar Index is sharply lower this morning. Wheat does not seem to be responding much, but this could have a bigger impact on exports down the road if the USD continues to decline.
Japan is tendering for 123,770 mt of food-quality wheat from the US, Canada, and Australia.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The USDA rated the corn crop at 55% good to excellent (up 4% from last week). Despite the increase, this is still the worst rating for this time of year since 2012.
The average pre-report estimate for US corn production is 15.149 bb, with a yield of 175.8 bpa.
Tomorrow’s report may reflect a boost in Brazil corn production, with traders looking for a crop of 132.8 mmt.
December corn is building technical support around the $4.90-$5.00 level, but the improving crop conditions could limit upside potential.
On tomorrow’s report, 2023 corn carryout is expected to come in around 2.2 bb.
The USDA rated the soybean crop at 51% good to excellent (up 1% from last week). Like corn, this is the poorest rating for this time period since 2012.
The average pre-report estimate for US soybean production is 4.250 bb, with a yield of 51.4 bpa.
Yesterday’s close in soybean oil was the highest so far this year, likely due to influence from palm oil as well as anticipated demand for biofuels.
Over the next 10 days, Minnesota, the Dakotas, Wisconsin, and northern Iowa are all expected to be mostly dry.
Tomorrow’s report is expected to show a drop in 2023 soybean carryout to around 200 mb.
The USDA said only 46% of the winter wheat crop has been harvested (vs 59% average). Winter wheat condition was unchanged at 40% good to excellent.
The USDA rated the spring wheat crop at 47% good to excellent (down 1% from last week)
Spring wheat areas in the northern US remain in need of moisture, but not much is expected this week.
Reportedly, interior Russian wheat prices have rallied, but they are still offering wheat for export at $235-$240 per metric ton FOB.
According to CONAB, 79.6% of Brazil’s wheat crop has been planted as of July 1st.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
Correction to morning comments – a reduction in corn acres was inadvertently mentioned. On the June 30th report, corn acres were increased by roughly 2 million.
The weather forecast for the next 10 days is drier for much of the western Corn Belt, but there could be showers farther to the East (including central Illinois).
Given the weather so far, this growing season, many believe that the USDA could reduce their corn yield estimate on this Wednesday’s WASDE report.
China is said to be experiencing dryness and elevated temperatures, which could reduce their crops.
July corn on Brazil’s Bovespa exchange is near the equivalent of $4.64 per bushel, keeping pressure on US exports.
Soybeans are sharply higher this morning, possibly in anticipation of friendly data on Wednesday’s USDA report. Traders expect 23/24 carryout to fall near to 200 mb.
Both soybean oil and palm oil are higher, offering support to soybeans. Bean oil may be rallying due to the anticipated increase in biofuel demand, while palm oil saw lower production and higher exports in June.
Crop conditions may be improving due to recent rain in eastern areas, including central Illinois, and parts of Nebraska and Indiana.
Funds remain net long soybeans, meal, and oil as of July 3rd.
Canda is seeing drier than normal conditions that will likely impact the spring wheat crop. Globally, there could be lower production in Russia and northern China as well.
Wheat has traded both sides of steady so far today, but weakness may stem from lower Matif futures. Paris milling wheat is on track for what will be the third lower close in a row.
Expiration of the Black Sea Grain Initiative is next week. There is still much uncertainty of what will happen, given the fact that Russia has said they see no reason for an extension, but Turkey is trying to encourage an agreement.
As of July 3rd, managed funds remain net short 56,000 contracts of Chicago wheat.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Stewart-Peterson Inc. Reproduction of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. The data contained herein is believed to be drawn from reliable sources but cannot be guaranteed. Reproduction and distribution of this information without prior written permission is prohibited. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of Total Farm Marketing and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. Any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to Total Farm Marketing.
Stewart-Peterson Inc., Stewart-Peterson Group Inc., and SP Risk Services LLC are each part of the family of companies within Total Farm Marketing (TFM). Stewart-Peterson Inc. is a publishing company. Stewart-Peterson Group Inc. is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as an introducing broker and is a member of National Futures Association. SP Risk Services LLC is an insurance agency. A customer may have relationships with any or all three companies.
The USDA reported an increase of 9.9 mb of corn export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 16.5 mb for 23/24.
Private exporters reported sales of 180,000 tons of US corn sold to Mexico.
The 6-10 day forecast has some decent rain for parts of the west-central Corn Belt. The 8-14 day map has that weather shifting more to the East, into the Tennessee / Ohio river valley.
Ethanol data yesterday showed higher production, lower stocks, and improved margins (due to lower corn prices).
Next week’s WASDE report on July 12th is likely to show a reduction in the corn yield estimate. The question is how much of an impact this will have given the higher acreage estimate last week.
The USDA reported an increase of 6.9 mb of soybean export sales for 22/23 and an increase of 21.8 mb of 23/24.
Soybean meal is lower this morning – a lower close would mark the fourth day in a row. This is putting pressure on soybean futures. Palm oil futures are trending lower as well, not helping the situation.
About 60% of the US soybean crop is still said to be experiencing drought, despite the drought monitor showing some slight improvements.
September soybeans on China’s Dalian exchange are trading around the equivalent of $17.04 per bushel.
The USDA reported an increase of 14.9 mb of wheat export sales for 23/24 and a decrease of 0.1 mb of 24/25.
More rain for the southern Plains will slow HRW wheat harvest, which is already well behind the average pace. However, slow export demand means that the market will likely not respond much to this.
Despite weakness in the wheat market, ending stocks are at the lowest level in 16 years, which should provide some support.
French wheat harvest is said to be 10% complete with better than expected yields so far.
The presidents of both Ukraine and Turkey will be meeting to discuss an extension of the Black Sea grain deal. This is despite Russia’s recent statements that they will not extend the corridor again.
Grain Market Insider is provided by Stewart-Peterson Inc., a publishing company.
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